RACE 6 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Cacica Dulima (Morning Line 9-2)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Hugh Knew (ML 6-1)
# 3 Q' Viva (ML 4-1)
# 8 Susan B Good (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rockin Girl (ML 8-1)
Remember for future reference that this one is for horses with no more than one career win, because you won't find that N2L designation in your DRF Past Performances.
Cacica Dulima achieved her sole victory in her only prior race charging down the hill, and she did it against non-claiming maidens. Note also the early speed Cacica Dulima showed last time out when competing around two turns on the Del Mar grass, a sign that she should be ready to return to sprinting.
Hugh Knew graduated by charging down the hill, and has finished in the money against open claimers (that is, claiming races where the field was not restricted only to horses with a with a certain number of lifetime wins). Q' Viva has proven to be competitive at this class level. The concern with both Hugh Knew and Q' Viva is that both have passed the double-digit mark in career starts without being able to get that second Win.
Susan B Good is another that got her first career win by charging down the hill (albeit via a DQ); a repeat of that effort could find her back in the Winner's Circle again today. Rockin Girl had a nice effort in her only prior try down the hill, getting the Show at this class level while finishing just a neck behind Q' Viva.
RACE 7 - (F) The Santa Ynez (Grade 2) - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Light the City (ML 3-1)
# 8 Conquest Harlanate (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Seduire (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Callback (ML 4-1)
# 6 Rattataptap (ML 5-1)
Light the City is a stakes winner over this main track, her only prior contest on a fast dirt track. There's a lot of early speed here, and if Light the City tries to be up on the lead early it could be a repeat of her last time out in the Desi Arnaz, where she disappointed as the odds-on Favorite. However, if Light the City can sit behind the front runners, as she did in the Anoakia, then she should be the one getting her picture taken again today.
Conquest Harlanate is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field, and she's actually won two such contests, albeit on surfaces other than dirt. However, her sire (Harlan's Holiday) won multiple Grade 1 stakes on real dirt; and her damsire (Dixieland Band) won a pair of Graded Stakes on real dirt; so I don't expect the surface switch to be a problem.
Seduire won the Golden Gate Debutante by as many as she wanted last time out, and her position on the rail could make her the speed of the speed, at least in the early going. Callback took a big step forward last time out in her second career start; but she'll need to take another step forward in order to keep from being just another also-ran among the front runners. Of course, with Bob Baffert as trainer, such a step forward for a young horse would not be unusual.
Rattataptap looked sharp winning her debut last time out, and she did it with a late running style that would serve her well if repeated today.
RACE 8 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Skyring (ML 12-1)
# 9 Tom's Tribute (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Big Bane Theory (ML 7-2)
# 3 Dynamic Sky (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 4 Patrioticandproud (ML 8-1)
# 5 Persuasive Paul (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
The one thing I know for sure about this race is that Rafael Bejarano won't be in the Winner's Circle when it's over, as he doesn't have a mount in this field. Which is a shame, as Bejarano has a six race winning streak in this contest; and losing a winning streak because of a DNP is never a good outcome in any sport.
Skyring should be quickest of the lot when the gates open, and he has the back class to steal this one on the front end. Tom's Tribute won a pair of Graded Stakes on the Del Mar grass during their Summer meet; a repeat of either effort should get the job done again today.
Big Bane Theory is the horse for the course, with a lifetime four-for-six record on the Santa Anita turf course. Dynamic Sky has put together a string of very nice efforts in his last three starts, culminating with a Win in the Grade 3 Red Smith; but it seems as if Dynamic Sky does his best running when the grass is soft, which is unlikely to be the case today.
Patrioticandproud just missed in the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup last time out, finishing just a neck behind # 6 Finnegans Wake (ML 9-2). So why use Patrioticandproud on our tickets and not Finnegans Wake? Because I believe that the cutback in distance will help Patrioticandproud, while hindering Finnegans Wake's effort. We'll know if that opinion is correct later this afternoon.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Ski's Copper Penny (ML 5-1)
# 12 Southern Owah (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Bernier (ML 5-1)
# 5 Lyla Della (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Ruby N Diamonds (ML 8-1)
# 6 Profit Motive (ML 6-1)
# 11 Here Comes Bobbie (ML 10-1)
The Also Eligibles get to stay in the barn and watch this one on the closed circuit televisions.
Ski's Copper Penny missed graduating by half a length at this level at today's distance last time out. Southern Owah has flashed early speed in each of her last three starts, and could be loose on the lead here today.
Lyla Della hasn't raced in twelve months, and shows a noticeable gap in her workouts between November 16 and December 22. Factor in that she's making the huge drop from non-claiming maidens to the cheapest maidens on the lot, and it's safe to say that she's not the same horse that took the Place over this track last time out. On the other hand, at this class level she doesn't really have to be that good; and if she shows any of her prior ability, she could get the Win here today.
Bernier is a first time starter that shows a steady workout pattern stretching back to October. Ruby N Diamonds took the Show at this level in her debut last time out.
Profit Motive is another first time starter showing a nice, steady work tab. Profit Motive is a home bred resulting from a $2k sire fee, and looks to be very well meant. Here Comes Bobbie is working on that key eleventh time's the charm angle. Somewhat more seriously, Here Comes Bobbie goes third off the layoff, and looks to improve over her prior dirt form.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in the abbreviated Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 3,8 with 8,9 with 7,12 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,3,8,9 with 3,5,7,12 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,3,8,11 with 3,8 with 8,9 with 7,12 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,6 with 8,9 with 7,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,8 with 4 with 7,12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,8 with 8,9 with 1,6,11 $6.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:07 EST / 3:07 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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