And so we begin 2015: a clean slate, a fresh start, and a new folder for our tax records. Here's wishing each and every one of you the a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Larocco (Morning Line 12-1)
# 6 Sergeant O'Rouke (Morning Line 7-2)
# 7 She's Flush (ML 5-1)# 10 Lotta Attitude (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
# 8 Vegas Bound (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Larocco was a winner over this main track ten months ago when running with a $50k price tag on her head. Larocco should take a big step forward today against weaker competition than she has been facing; but I don't think adding the blinkers is the best move, as Larocco seems to have done her best running in the past when she wasn't wearing the hood.
Sergeant O'Rouke looks to be the speed of the speed here, especially with the scratch of Vegas Bound. Sergeant O'Rouke is also getting some significant class relief here, dropping in for the lowest tag of her career. The concern is that, while Sergeant O'Rouke's lone career win came over this main track, she's done her best running (as expressed by her Beyer Speed Figures) on non-dirt surfaces.
She's Flush is taking a step up the class ladder after winning at the $20k level last time out; but the Beyers that she has earned when running on dirt indicate that she can compete at this level. Lotta Attitude, seeking her first Win away from Emerald Downs, gets some much needed class relief. Lotta Attitude is making her second start off a two month layoff for Trainer Ron Ellis, whose runners tend to due quite well under those circumstance.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/C - Six and a half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Horse Laugh (ML 10-1)
# 2 Rolling Fog (ML 4-1)
# 4 Airfoil (ML 6-1)
# 6 Nicklaus Way (ML 5-2)
# 7 Follini (ML 6-1)
# 8 Chief Lion (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Horse Laugh certainly appreciated his return to a fast dirt track last time out, winning by over three lengths at a class level a rung below today's contest. Horse Laugh is three-for-five lifetime when competing on a fast dirt track, including one-for-two lifetime over the Santa Anita main track.
Rolling Fog makes the second start of his comeback attempt, after having not previously competed since winning the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity back in September 2012. Trainer Bob Baffert does very well with runners making their second start off an extended vacation, and Rolling Fog did turn in a sharp bullet workout last Friday. If Rolling Fog flashes the early speed today that he had as a two year old, this race could be over before the others get rolling.
Airfoil took the Place at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts on real dirt, earning Beyer Speed Figures in the process that should get the job done today if repeated.
Nicklaus Way took the Place at this approximate level last time out, and was also the Place finisher three starts back against slightly more expensive. Nicklaus Way will be making his first start off the claim for Trainer Mike Puype, who wins with approximately 30% of such. The main concern here is the distance, as Nicklaus Way's career record suggests that he would prefer going longer.
Follini returns from an extended vacation, and figures to be prominent in the early going. The bullet work on Dec 26th suggests that Follini should be ready to fire. Chief Lion took the Place last time out at this approximate level last time out, albeit on the synthetic at Del Mar. If Chief Lion tries to run with the early leaders he'll almost surely be burnt out before the wire; but if Chief Lion runs similar to his last Win over this main track back in September, then he stands a good chance of getting his picture taken today.
RACE 8 - (F) The Blue Norther $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Jaded Glory (4-1)
# 8 Rainha Da Bateria (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
All the Also Eligibles get to stay in the barn for this one.
Jaded Glory was charging late in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durantee last time out, in a race where she did not have a smooth ride. Rainha Da Bateria is the most accomplished runner in this field of just turned three year olds, having taken the Grade 3 Jessamine on the Keeneland grass back in October, and just missing in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante at Del Mar last time out.
RACE 9 - [S] OC 20k/C - Eight and a half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 The Mad Hungarian (ML 7-2)
# 8 Valley Cat (ML 3-1)
# 9 Durango Flier (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
The Mad Hungarian is the horse for the course here, with three career Wins in four tries over the Santa Anita main track. Valley Cat finished in the money in three of his last four races, all non-state restricted events; the class relief should do him good. Last time out Durango Flier was given a start on real dirt after six straight races on other surfaces, and Durango Flier showed his appreciation by earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice that I've only listed "A" Selections above. This isn't a change in philosophy or method of playing; but rather it represents my opinion that the competitive nature of Race 7 (the second leg in the sequence) just doesn't allow for a true spread in the other legs using the A / B / C approach. So with all that, we wind up with just one ticket today, as follows:
All A Entries
4,6,7,10 with 1,2,4,6,7,8 with 5,8 with 1,8,9 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2 comments:
You will begin your 2015 Pick 4 winning streak starting on Saturday. On to the next race......
That's the thing that I love most about this game; there's always another race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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