If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, you're well aware of the saga of City Chapel, a four year old gelding that we've been following since he was claimed by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo out of a $4k Claiming Race last August; a race in which City Chapel went to post at 29.8-1. And if you've been paying attention to this story, you're also well aware that City Chapel has proven to be quite a successful pickup, having already brought back more than twice his purchase price in purse winnings in his first eight starts for the Trujillo barn.
However, a new chapter was added to the story Thursday, as City Chapel, in the twenty-sixth start of his career, finally attained his second lifetime victory. Breaking from Post Position 3 in Race 3 at Golden Gate, (Claiming $6,250 NW2L) City Chapel (Final Odds 4.1-1) was fifth in the field of seven at first call, three back of the leader, He's a Sure Call. City Chapel then, in the words of the chart caller, "responded once set down in the lane to rally from the outside and won going away," covering the five and a half furlongs on the synthetic main track in a final time of 1:05.42.
This was City Chapel's first win for the Trujillo barn, and the $4950 it brings in purse money well exceeds the amount for which Trujillo had claimed him. Congratulations to the athlete and his connections, and best wishes for their continued success.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Saturday, February 23, 2013
2/23/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
It's bad enough when your ticket dies with the finish of the very first race of the sequence. It's even worse when your tickets dies the moment they hit the buzzer to start the very first race of the sequence.
But that's what happened with our play today, as our single in Race 7, # 8 Crop Report (Final Odds 2.5-1), hit the gate right at the start of Race 7 at Gulfstream, thus spotting the rest of the field approximately ten lengths right from the break. Crop Report didn't quit, and showed that our faith in his running ability was justified; but despite making up what seemed like acres of ground, it just wasn't enough to offset the blown start, as Crop Report finished third, a length and three quarters behind the winner, # 3 Black Onyx (9.8-1).
We had the winner of Race 8, as # 9 Dominant Jeannes (7.4-1) grabbed the lead early and then held on for dear life, finishing a neck in front of # 4 Godard (9.4-1). And our fears that Race 9, The Davona Dale, would see our play # 3 Dreaming of Julia (0.9-1) get hooked into a speed dual with # 4 Live Lively (2.1-1) proved unfounded. Dreaming of Julia simply let Live Lively have the lead uncontested; which, in the end, proved rather unfortunate for us, as Live Lively, the horse we spoke of but did not play, led the pack all the way around the track, crossing the wire a length and a half in front of Place horse Dreaming of Julia and over seven lengths ahead of Show horse # 1 Private Ensign (2.3-1).
# 4 Data Link (1.1-1) gave us our second winner on the ticket in Race 10, The Canadian Turf; thus making the case that he was indeed worthy of single status. Speaking of singles, Race 11, The Fountain of Youth, saw our other single on the ticket, # 3 Violence (0.6-1) finish a half-length behind the well-supported # 1 Orb (5.4-1, from a Morning Line of 12-1). Finally, the finale, Race 12, saw one of our selections, first time starter # 5 Forever Thing (6-1) finish a neck behind the winner, # 3 Kingofalldiamonds (19.5-1).
So two Wins, three Place, and one Show; which, as you all already know, pays absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of 3 / 9 / 4 / 4 / 1 / 3 also pays absolutely nothing, as nobody correctly picked all six winners. The best anyone playing today could do was pick five out of six; for those who did, their reward was a return of $424.25 for the ten cent bet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT: February 24: Looks like Violence has a solid excuse for losing Saturday's Fountain of Youth, as he sustained a fracture to his right front medial sesamoid. The injury means that Violence will not run in the Kentucky Derby. Those interested can read the full story here. - Jimbo
But that's what happened with our play today, as our single in Race 7, # 8 Crop Report (Final Odds 2.5-1), hit the gate right at the start of Race 7 at Gulfstream, thus spotting the rest of the field approximately ten lengths right from the break. Crop Report didn't quit, and showed that our faith in his running ability was justified; but despite making up what seemed like acres of ground, it just wasn't enough to offset the blown start, as Crop Report finished third, a length and three quarters behind the winner, # 3 Black Onyx (9.8-1).
We had the winner of Race 8, as # 9 Dominant Jeannes (7.4-1) grabbed the lead early and then held on for dear life, finishing a neck in front of # 4 Godard (9.4-1). And our fears that Race 9, The Davona Dale, would see our play # 3 Dreaming of Julia (0.9-1) get hooked into a speed dual with # 4 Live Lively (2.1-1) proved unfounded. Dreaming of Julia simply let Live Lively have the lead uncontested; which, in the end, proved rather unfortunate for us, as Live Lively, the horse we spoke of but did not play, led the pack all the way around the track, crossing the wire a length and a half in front of Place horse Dreaming of Julia and over seven lengths ahead of Show horse # 1 Private Ensign (2.3-1).
# 4 Data Link (1.1-1) gave us our second winner on the ticket in Race 10, The Canadian Turf; thus making the case that he was indeed worthy of single status. Speaking of singles, Race 11, The Fountain of Youth, saw our other single on the ticket, # 3 Violence (0.6-1) finish a half-length behind the well-supported # 1 Orb (5.4-1, from a Morning Line of 12-1). Finally, the finale, Race 12, saw one of our selections, first time starter # 5 Forever Thing (6-1) finish a neck behind the winner, # 3 Kingofalldiamonds (19.5-1).
So two Wins, three Place, and one Show; which, as you all already know, pays absolutely nothing. Meanwhile, the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of 3 / 9 / 4 / 4 / 1 / 3 also pays absolutely nothing, as nobody correctly picked all six winners. The best anyone playing today could do was pick five out of six; for those who did, their reward was a return of $424.25 for the ten cent bet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT: February 24: Looks like Violence has a solid excuse for losing Saturday's Fountain of Youth, as he sustained a fracture to his right front medial sesamoid. The injury means that Violence will not run in the Kentucky Derby. Those interested can read the full story here. - Jimbo
2/23/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
Well, as I'm sure you've all heard by now, the pot got scooped at Gulfstream Friday; as a single winning ticket, purchased for $3,118.50 at the Meadowlands in New Jersey, returned $3,591,245.44 for the ten cent bet. For posterity, the winning Rainbow Six horses were:
RACE 5: #1 Keyner Veloz 56-1
RACE 6: #9 Original Cast 9-2
RACE 7: #8 Odalys Halo 17-1
RACE 8: #6 Artie’s Jasper 7-1
RACE 9: #4 Mays Treasuretrove 10-1
RACE 10: #7 Feline Forum 10-1
The article doesn't say if the winning ticket was purchased by an individual or a syndicate; so, whether the winner was one or many, congratulations, and may God's blessings be with them. As for the rest of us: onto the next race!
I'd be less than honest if I didn't say that not having a huge jackpot at stake doesn't zap a lot of the enthusiasm out of playing the card; but, on the other hand, there's no need to go deeper than necessary out of fear of missing out on a seven figure payout. With that, I've put together the following play; which, hopefully, will at least give us some action this Saturday afternoon.
RACE 7
# 8 Crop Report (Morning Line 5-1) won his last time out at Newmarket by wiring the field in an eight furlong contest. As my close personal friend Geno loves to point out, horses that show the ability to win on the front end in Great Britain tend to do very well here in the States. Note also that Trainer Graham Motion does insanely well when conditioning a horse for its first North American start (40% win rate with a $3.92 ROI).
RACE 8
# 11 Achilles (ML 7-2) takes another stab at this level after missing by two lengths in his third career start. If he repeats that 89 Beyer he'll be right in the mix at the finish; if he gets any boost at all from being on Lasix for the first time, he'll have the rest of the field in his rear view mirror. The far outside post, however, is a concern.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) (ML 6-1) is one for three on the Gulfstream Park grass, and lost by less than a length against this class his last time out. The fact that Edgar Prado returns for the ride should be viewed as a plus.
# 9 Dominant Jeannes (ML 10-1) won at this level at Aqueduct back in November. He has the early speed to steal this one on the front end, and with the blinkers back on I expect Jockey Joe Rocco Jr. to have the pedal to the metal as soon as the gate springs open.
RACE 9 - The Davona Dale
# 3 Dreaming of Julia (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field with a Grade 1 victory; in fact, she's the only filly in this field to have ever competed in a graded stakes. # 1 Private Ensign (ML 4-1) would be better served in a contest with more pace; but if # 4 Live Lively (ML 5-2), whom I did not include on my ticket, should hook Dreaming of Julia into a speed duel, then look for Private Ensign to pick up the pieces in the stretch.
RACE 10 - The Canadian Turf
# 4 Data Link (ML 2-1) is clearly the best of this bunch, and the abundance of speed plays right into his late running hooves. So why haven't I singled him in this race? Well, for one, this is just a prep for Data Link; you can be sure that his connections have their sights on bigger prizes, and this race is meant to be a conditioner. Also, look at Data Link's form when coming off a break; he was fourth in an overnight stakes at Belmont; he was third in this event last year; he was second in a Grade 2 at Saratoga; and he won a Grade 2 at Hollywood. That's a 25% Win Rate from a horse that has won more than half of all his other career races (six of eleven). Again, Data Link is the clear class of this field, and at his best should win with ease; but I just see too many red flags to make him a single here.
# 10 Za Approval (ML 5-1) has been in the Exacta all four times that he's been on the Gulfstream grass. His ability to run down the early leaders will be quite useful here. # 2 Beau Choix (ML 6-1) also prefers to come from behind, Beau Choix has been showing steady improvement (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) over his last three races, and the bullet works show that he has the afterburners to turn on when the time comes.
RACE 11 - The Fountain of Youth
# 3 Violence (ML 9-5) is a perfect three-for-three for his career, his last two coming in graded stakes events three thousand miles apart. He is the only graded stakes winner in this field, and Trainer Todd Pletcher, in addition to all his other credentials, is having a sensational meet, sitting atop the Gulfstream Park leader board with a 33% Winning Percentage (36 victories in 110 tries). The bullet work by Violence last Sunday just underscores his readiness for this contest.
RACE 12
# 1 Sevenoaks (ML 10-1) has great looking Tomlinsons for both Turf (352) and Turf Distance (384). # 5 Forever Thing (ML 7-2) is a first time starter for a trainer (Pletcher) who wins about a third of the time with debuters. # 7 Summer Shiner (ML 6-1) and # 10 Bad Hombre (ML 6-1) both earned a 69 Beyer their last time out, races which were grass events at this approximate distance. # 6 Surfspun (ML 8-1) puts on the hood and stretches out for a trainer (Jerimiah Englehart) who does quite well with both angles (37% and 22%, respectively).
So, putting it all together, we get the following ticket:
RACE 7: 8
RACE 8: 6 / 9 / 11
RACE 9: 1 / 3
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 10
Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you nine bucks.
Post Time is 3:35 EST / 12:35 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5: #1 Keyner Veloz 56-1
RACE 6: #9 Original Cast 9-2
RACE 7: #8 Odalys Halo 17-1
RACE 8: #6 Artie’s Jasper 7-1
RACE 9: #4 Mays Treasuretrove 10-1
RACE 10: #7 Feline Forum 10-1
The article doesn't say if the winning ticket was purchased by an individual or a syndicate; so, whether the winner was one or many, congratulations, and may God's blessings be with them. As for the rest of us: onto the next race!
I'd be less than honest if I didn't say that not having a huge jackpot at stake doesn't zap a lot of the enthusiasm out of playing the card; but, on the other hand, there's no need to go deeper than necessary out of fear of missing out on a seven figure payout. With that, I've put together the following play; which, hopefully, will at least give us some action this Saturday afternoon.
RACE 7
# 8 Crop Report (Morning Line 5-1) won his last time out at Newmarket by wiring the field in an eight furlong contest. As my close personal friend Geno loves to point out, horses that show the ability to win on the front end in Great Britain tend to do very well here in the States. Note also that Trainer Graham Motion does insanely well when conditioning a horse for its first North American start (40% win rate with a $3.92 ROI).
RACE 8
# 11 Achilles (ML 7-2) takes another stab at this level after missing by two lengths in his third career start. If he repeats that 89 Beyer he'll be right in the mix at the finish; if he gets any boost at all from being on Lasix for the first time, he'll have the rest of the field in his rear view mirror. The far outside post, however, is a concern.
# 6 Eternal Ruler (Ire) (ML 6-1) is one for three on the Gulfstream Park grass, and lost by less than a length against this class his last time out. The fact that Edgar Prado returns for the ride should be viewed as a plus.
# 9 Dominant Jeannes (ML 10-1) won at this level at Aqueduct back in November. He has the early speed to steal this one on the front end, and with the blinkers back on I expect Jockey Joe Rocco Jr. to have the pedal to the metal as soon as the gate springs open.
RACE 9 - The Davona Dale
# 3 Dreaming of Julia (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field with a Grade 1 victory; in fact, she's the only filly in this field to have ever competed in a graded stakes. # 1 Private Ensign (ML 4-1) would be better served in a contest with more pace; but if # 4 Live Lively (ML 5-2), whom I did not include on my ticket, should hook Dreaming of Julia into a speed duel, then look for Private Ensign to pick up the pieces in the stretch.
RACE 10 - The Canadian Turf
# 4 Data Link (ML 2-1) is clearly the best of this bunch, and the abundance of speed plays right into his late running hooves. So why haven't I singled him in this race? Well, for one, this is just a prep for Data Link; you can be sure that his connections have their sights on bigger prizes, and this race is meant to be a conditioner. Also, look at Data Link's form when coming off a break; he was fourth in an overnight stakes at Belmont; he was third in this event last year; he was second in a Grade 2 at Saratoga; and he won a Grade 2 at Hollywood. That's a 25% Win Rate from a horse that has won more than half of all his other career races (six of eleven). Again, Data Link is the clear class of this field, and at his best should win with ease; but I just see too many red flags to make him a single here.
# 10 Za Approval (ML 5-1) has been in the Exacta all four times that he's been on the Gulfstream grass. His ability to run down the early leaders will be quite useful here. # 2 Beau Choix (ML 6-1) also prefers to come from behind, Beau Choix has been showing steady improvement (as measured by his Beyer Speed Figures) over his last three races, and the bullet works show that he has the afterburners to turn on when the time comes.
RACE 11 - The Fountain of Youth
# 3 Violence (ML 9-5) is a perfect three-for-three for his career, his last two coming in graded stakes events three thousand miles apart. He is the only graded stakes winner in this field, and Trainer Todd Pletcher, in addition to all his other credentials, is having a sensational meet, sitting atop the Gulfstream Park leader board with a 33% Winning Percentage (36 victories in 110 tries). The bullet work by Violence last Sunday just underscores his readiness for this contest.
RACE 12
# 1 Sevenoaks (ML 10-1) has great looking Tomlinsons for both Turf (352) and Turf Distance (384). # 5 Forever Thing (ML 7-2) is a first time starter for a trainer (Pletcher) who wins about a third of the time with debuters. # 7 Summer Shiner (ML 6-1) and # 10 Bad Hombre (ML 6-1) both earned a 69 Beyer their last time out, races which were grass events at this approximate distance. # 6 Surfspun (ML 8-1) puts on the hood and stretches out for a trainer (Jerimiah Englehart) who does quite well with both angles (37% and 22%, respectively).
So, putting it all together, we get the following ticket:
RACE 7: 8
RACE 8: 6 / 9 / 11
RACE 9: 1 / 3
RACE 10: 2 / 4 / 10
RACE 11: 3
RACE 12: 1 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 10
Play it for a dime and the whole thing will cost you nine bucks.
Post Time is 3:35 EST / 12:35 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Update
As it was last week with The Road to the Kentucky Oaks, so it was this past weekend for The Road to the Kentucky Derby, with Phase One coming to a conclusion. Phase One, a.k.a. The Kentucky Derby Prep Season, consisted of nineteen races, each run at a distance of at least eight furlongs. Phase One began back in September with the running of the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket, and ended with the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Presidents Day.
During Phase One, points were awarded in each of the nineteen races on a 10-4-2-1 scale; that is, the Winner of each race received ten points, the Place horse received four points; the Show horse received two points; and the horse at the bottom of the Superfecta received one point. Full standings can be viewed here.
Since earnings in non-restricted stakes races serve as a tie-breaker, the current Road leader is Shanghai Bobby, trained by Todd Pletcher (the same man who trains the filly sitting atop The Road to the Kentucky Oaks leader board, Kauai Katie). Shanghai Bobby currently has twenty-four points, earned via victories in The Champagne Stakes and The Breeders' Cup Juvenile, along with a Place finish in The Holy Bull Stakes.
Sitting right behind Shanghai Bobby with an identical twenty-four points (but fewer non-restricted stakes earnings) is Goldencents (of whom we wrote on this blog shortly after his debut). Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill, who trained last year's Derby winner, I'll Have Another. Goldencents obtained his two dozen points by crossing the finish line first in both The Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes and The Sham Stakes, while taking the Place behind Shanghai Bobby in The Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents were the only two horses to gain multiple victories during Phase One; however, their combined point total is currently less than that to be earned by a single win during Phase Two.
Phase Two, a.k.a. the first leg of The Kentucky Derby Championship Series, consists of eight races where points will be rewarded on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Phase Two kicks off this Saturday with The Risen Star Stakes at Louisiana's Fair Grounds, along with The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Phase Three, a.k.a. the second leg of The Kentucky Derby Championship Series, will have a point scale double that of Phase Two; i.e., 100-40-20-10. Seven races comprise Phase Three; three of those seven will be contested on March 30. Finally, The Road ends with a pair of Wildcard Races: The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 20; and The Derby Trial at Churchill Downs one week later. Points in the Wildcard Races will be awarded on a 20-8-4-2 scale.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
During Phase One, points were awarded in each of the nineteen races on a 10-4-2-1 scale; that is, the Winner of each race received ten points, the Place horse received four points; the Show horse received two points; and the horse at the bottom of the Superfecta received one point. Full standings can be viewed here.
Since earnings in non-restricted stakes races serve as a tie-breaker, the current Road leader is Shanghai Bobby, trained by Todd Pletcher (the same man who trains the filly sitting atop The Road to the Kentucky Oaks leader board, Kauai Katie). Shanghai Bobby currently has twenty-four points, earned via victories in The Champagne Stakes and The Breeders' Cup Juvenile, along with a Place finish in The Holy Bull Stakes.
Sitting right behind Shanghai Bobby with an identical twenty-four points (but fewer non-restricted stakes earnings) is Goldencents (of whom we wrote on this blog shortly after his debut). Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill, who trained last year's Derby winner, I'll Have Another. Goldencents obtained his two dozen points by crossing the finish line first in both The Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes and The Sham Stakes, while taking the Place behind Shanghai Bobby in The Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents were the only two horses to gain multiple victories during Phase One; however, their combined point total is currently less than that to be earned by a single win during Phase Two.
Phase Two, a.k.a. the first leg of The Kentucky Derby Championship Series, consists of eight races where points will be rewarded on a 50-20-10-5 scale. Phase Two kicks off this Saturday with The Risen Star Stakes at Louisiana's Fair Grounds, along with The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Phase Three, a.k.a. the second leg of The Kentucky Derby Championship Series, will have a point scale double that of Phase Two; i.e., 100-40-20-10. Seven races comprise Phase Three; three of those seven will be contested on March 30. Finally, The Road ends with a pair of Wildcard Races: The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 20; and The Derby Trial at Churchill Downs one week later. Points in the Wildcard Races will be awarded on a 20-8-4-2 scale.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, February 17, 2013
2/16/13 GG Late Pick Four - Results
Not much action from yesterday's selections, as we failed to survive the first leg. Race 6 saw an Exacta of # 7 Curly Boy (Final Odds 12.8-1) and # 2 Dress Code (4.4-1), with our selections occupying the next three slots. For the record, prior to yesterday's contest Curly Boy was one-for-twelve at Golden Gate, and one-for-fourteen on synthetic surfaces.
Race 7 saw our sole winner of the day, as # 9 Blues Blaster (2.7-1) led the field around the track, finishing a length and a half ahead of # 3 Red Creme (6.9-1). Incidentally, those who had the Blues Blaster / Red Creme Exact were rewarded with $21.90 for every dollar they wagered.
Race 8 was The El Camino Real Derby, one of the prep races on The Road To The Kentucky Derby. I noticed that # 9 Dice Flavor (Morning Line 20-1) opened up at 7-2 on the board. I remarked at the time that someone was very optimistic. As it turns out, they had good reason for optimism, as Dice Flavor (9.5-1) won for fun, finishing nearly four lengths in front of Place finisher # 6 Nina's Dragon (13.7-1), with # 3 Counting Days (25.2-1) taking the Show. For those interested, the Dice Flavor / Nina's Dragon / Counting Days Trifecta paid $1,068.90 for a one dollar bet.
Race 9 had the lone single on our ticket, # 10 Compromising Txt (ML 5-2). As so often happens to favorites in the final race of the day on cards throughout the country, Compromising Txt was over-bet, leaving the gate at even money (Final Odds 1.0-1). Compromising Txt grabbed the early lead, but decided to call it a day before entering the stretch, finishing dead last, over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Tonzatrouble (12.4-1). For his effort, Compromising Txt was rewarded with new connections, as he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Daniel W Taylor. Don't be surprised if Compromising Txt's next outing is in a four-and-a-half furlong event at Los Alamitos.
Not a good showing on our part; but if misery loves company, then there’s a lot of love in the air, as very few had the correct sequence of 7 / 9 / 9 / 8. And understandably so, as the winners crossed the wire at Final Odds, respectively, of 12-1, 5-2, 9-1, and 12-1. Congratulations to those who were fortunate enough to correctly play the right horses, as they were rewarded with a Pick Four that paid $17,739.20 for a fifty cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 saw our sole winner of the day, as # 9 Blues Blaster (2.7-1) led the field around the track, finishing a length and a half ahead of # 3 Red Creme (6.9-1). Incidentally, those who had the Blues Blaster / Red Creme Exact were rewarded with $21.90 for every dollar they wagered.
Race 8 was The El Camino Real Derby, one of the prep races on The Road To The Kentucky Derby. I noticed that # 9 Dice Flavor (Morning Line 20-1) opened up at 7-2 on the board. I remarked at the time that someone was very optimistic. As it turns out, they had good reason for optimism, as Dice Flavor (9.5-1) won for fun, finishing nearly four lengths in front of Place finisher # 6 Nina's Dragon (13.7-1), with # 3 Counting Days (25.2-1) taking the Show. For those interested, the Dice Flavor / Nina's Dragon / Counting Days Trifecta paid $1,068.90 for a one dollar bet.
Race 9 had the lone single on our ticket, # 10 Compromising Txt (ML 5-2). As so often happens to favorites in the final race of the day on cards throughout the country, Compromising Txt was over-bet, leaving the gate at even money (Final Odds 1.0-1). Compromising Txt grabbed the early lead, but decided to call it a day before entering the stretch, finishing dead last, over thirteen lengths behind the winner, Tonzatrouble (12.4-1). For his effort, Compromising Txt was rewarded with new connections, as he was claimed by Owner and Trainer Daniel W Taylor. Don't be surprised if Compromising Txt's next outing is in a four-and-a-half furlong event at Los Alamitos.
Not a good showing on our part; but if misery loves company, then there’s a lot of love in the air, as very few had the correct sequence of 7 / 9 / 9 / 8. And understandably so, as the winners crossed the wire at Final Odds, respectively, of 12-1, 5-2, 9-1, and 12-1. Congratulations to those who were fortunate enough to correctly play the right horses, as they were rewarded with a Pick Four that paid $17,739.20 for a fifty cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 16, 2013
2/16/13 GG Late Pick Four - Preview
Taking a break from Gulfstream today and setting my sights on Northern California; specifically, the late Pick Four at Golden Gate Fields.
RACE 6
# 5 Eagle Screams (Morning Line 7-2) has been showing steady improvement (as measured by his Beyer's Speed Figures) since first facing winners back in September. # 8 Won Won Oh Five (ML 5-2) invades from the South, competing for the first time for Trainer Billy Morey, who's been winning at a 34% clip with his first off the claim. # 4 Mighty Marino (ML 8-1) won at this level (albeit while on some California grass) two back. Trainer Ricardo Perez shows a positive ROI in all the relevant categories, and hits abut a third of the time when working with Jockey Alejandro Gomez.
RACE 7
# 9 Blues Blaster (ML 9-2) won at this level over this surface at this distance two back; and, while doing so, earned the best career synthetic Beyer of any horse in this field. # 1 Roving Storm (ML 3-1) has hit the board at this level in each of his last three starts, and hasn't been out of the Superfecta in his career. The fact that he runs for the Jerry Hollendorfer / Russel Baze partnership adds to the appeal. # 3 Red Creme (ML 4-1) has won a third of his career starts at this track, including a victory at this level over this surface at this distance three back.
RACE 8 - The El Camino Real Derby
# 5 Zeewat (ML 5-2) is the local hero, with two Wins and one Show in his three tries over this track. Zeewat has yet to see his Beyers decrease from one race to the next, and is four-for-five with Russell Baze on his back. # 8 Carving (ML 3-1) is one of a pair running for Trainer Bob Baffert in this one. Carving is perfect for his career if you disregard his attempts at the Grade 1 level. # 6 Nina's Dragon (ML 12-1) has, in my humble opinion, performed better than his Beyers would indicate. His Dst Tomlinson Rating of 368 indicates that he should like the nine furlongs stretch out.
RACE 9
# 10 Compromising Txt (ML 5-2) has the best last-out Beyer in the field, and earned it while taking the Show over this track at this distance against more expensive. Trainer Steve Sherman connects in all the relevant categories, and Compromising Txt has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire seven of the last eight times that he's been under Jockey Aaron Gryder.
So, with that, I'll be playing a Pick Four Ticket of:
RACE 6: 4, 5, 8
RACE 7: 1, 3, 9
RACE 8: 5, 6, 8
RACE 9: 10
along with a Pick Four Ticket of:
RACE 6: 4, 5, 8
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 10
If you play both tickets for fifty cents, the whole thing will cost you $15.00.
Post Time is 6:32 EST / 3:32 PST
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
# 5 Eagle Screams (Morning Line 7-2) has been showing steady improvement (as measured by his Beyer's Speed Figures) since first facing winners back in September. # 8 Won Won Oh Five (ML 5-2) invades from the South, competing for the first time for Trainer Billy Morey, who's been winning at a 34% clip with his first off the claim. # 4 Mighty Marino (ML 8-1) won at this level (albeit while on some California grass) two back. Trainer Ricardo Perez shows a positive ROI in all the relevant categories, and hits abut a third of the time when working with Jockey Alejandro Gomez.
RACE 7
# 9 Blues Blaster (ML 9-2) won at this level over this surface at this distance two back; and, while doing so, earned the best career synthetic Beyer of any horse in this field. # 1 Roving Storm (ML 3-1) has hit the board at this level in each of his last three starts, and hasn't been out of the Superfecta in his career. The fact that he runs for the Jerry Hollendorfer / Russel Baze partnership adds to the appeal. # 3 Red Creme (ML 4-1) has won a third of his career starts at this track, including a victory at this level over this surface at this distance three back.
RACE 8 - The El Camino Real Derby
# 5 Zeewat (ML 5-2) is the local hero, with two Wins and one Show in his three tries over this track. Zeewat has yet to see his Beyers decrease from one race to the next, and is four-for-five with Russell Baze on his back. # 8 Carving (ML 3-1) is one of a pair running for Trainer Bob Baffert in this one. Carving is perfect for his career if you disregard his attempts at the Grade 1 level. # 6 Nina's Dragon (ML 12-1) has, in my humble opinion, performed better than his Beyers would indicate. His Dst Tomlinson Rating of 368 indicates that he should like the nine furlongs stretch out.
RACE 9
# 10 Compromising Txt (ML 5-2) has the best last-out Beyer in the field, and earned it while taking the Show over this track at this distance against more expensive. Trainer Steve Sherman connects in all the relevant categories, and Compromising Txt has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire seven of the last eight times that he's been under Jockey Aaron Gryder.
So, with that, I'll be playing a Pick Four Ticket of:
RACE 6: 4, 5, 8
RACE 7: 1, 3, 9
RACE 8: 5, 6, 8
RACE 9: 10
along with a Pick Four Ticket of:
RACE 6: 4, 5, 8
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 10
If you play both tickets for fifty cents, the whole thing will cost you $15.00.
Post Time is 6:32 EST / 3:32 PST
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, February 14, 2013
Road to the Kentucky Oaks - Update
For those who may have missed it, this past weekend marked the end of Phase One of the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, the new points system for determining the fourteen fillies that will qualify for this year's Kntucky Oaks. Phase One, a.k.a. The Kentucky Oaks Prep Season, consisted of twenty races, beginning with the Shadwell Fillies Mile, run at Newmarket back on September 28. Points during Phase One were awarded in each of the twenty races on a 10-4-2-1 scale; that is, the Winner of each race received ten points, the Place horse received four points, etc. Full standings can be viewed here.
Kauai Katie, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the current leader with twenty-one points. She was the only filly to have won two Phase One races, having crossed the wire first in both the Old Hat Stakes and the Forward Gal Stakes (the additional point came from Kauai Katie's fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies). Both of Kauai Katie's wins during Phase One were at Gulfstream Park; more relevantly, all five of her career wins (including her two Road to the Kentucky Oaks victories) were contested at distances of less than eight furlongs.
Phase Two, a.k.a. the first half of The Kentucky Oaks Championship Series, kicks off February 23 with the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course. Phase Two will consist of eight races where points will be awarded on a 50-20-10-5 scale; so the two winners on the 23rd, even if they earned zero points during Phase One, will immediately vault to the top of the standings. Phase Three, a.k.a. the second half of The Kentucky Oaks Championship Series, will begin March 30 (also with a pair of races, one at Gulfstream and the other at Fair Grounds) and will consist of six races where points will be awarded on a 100-40-20-10 scale. Finally, the whole thing will conclude with one wildcard race, the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland, which will award points on a 20-8-4-2 scale.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Kauai Katie, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the current leader with twenty-one points. She was the only filly to have won two Phase One races, having crossed the wire first in both the Old Hat Stakes and the Forward Gal Stakes (the additional point came from Kauai Katie's fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies). Both of Kauai Katie's wins during Phase One were at Gulfstream Park; more relevantly, all five of her career wins (including her two Road to the Kentucky Oaks victories) were contested at distances of less than eight furlongs.
Phase Two, a.k.a. the first half of The Kentucky Oaks Championship Series, kicks off February 23 with the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course. Phase Two will consist of eight races where points will be awarded on a 50-20-10-5 scale; so the two winners on the 23rd, even if they earned zero points during Phase One, will immediately vault to the top of the standings. Phase Three, a.k.a. the second half of The Kentucky Oaks Championship Series, will begin March 30 (also with a pair of races, one at Gulfstream and the other at Fair Grounds) and will consist of six races where points will be awarded on a 100-40-20-10 scale. Finally, the whole thing will conclude with one wildcard race, the Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland, which will award points on a 20-8-4-2 scale.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, February 10, 2013
2/10/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
Well, now, that was forgettable; wasn't it?
We came close to hitting our single play in the opening leg, Race 6; but Derby Watch (Final Odds 6.7-1) just couldn't get past the winner, Songa (17.5-1). Incidentally, I feel like I betrayed all that Mark Cramer ever tried to teach me in his writings by not having Songa, as a horse making its second start while trading a bug boy for a top rider was one of Cramer's favorite angles.
Well, if you can't win 'em all, no point in winning any of them; at least, that's what it seems like our motto was today. Oh, we did have the winner in the second leg, Race 7 as Win for Kitten (5.1-1) scored in her first try against winners. And we certainly gave it the old college try in Race 8, as we managed to have three-quarters of the Superfecta without having the Winner, Go Canes Go (10.3-1).
Race 9 saw the Post Time favorite, State Flag (2.7-1), whom we did not have, hold off late charges from Present Course (3.0-1), whom we also did not have, and Grandstand (6.5-1), whom we did have.
Race 10 was the Hurricane Bertie Stakes. We covered three of the nine horses that went to post; or, to put it another way, we covered half of the horses that finished out of the money. I should mention that Applauding (5.9-1), the filly about whom I've written on multiple occasions, showed that, while her body has returned to racing, her heart has not. In what could only loosely be referred to as an effort, Applauding jogged around the track, finishing last, almost twenty-five lengths behind the winner, Post Time favorite Golden Mystery (2.6-1). While it's possible that an injury may be to blame, I think it's fair to presume that Applauding has simply not regained her desire to compete on the track; only time will tell if she ever will.
The final race saw our other single, Si Senora (3.9-1) break in air, pretty much ending her race before it even began. She would finish seventh, a little over nine lengths behind the winner, Missy Miner (7.9-1).
So, the end result was that we wound up with one out of six winners on our Rainbow 6 ticket; a result that pays exactly as much as having five out of six winners. Those who were skillful enough to have the correct sequence of 9 / 9 / 8 / 2 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with $18,246.74 for their ten cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We came close to hitting our single play in the opening leg, Race 6; but Derby Watch (Final Odds 6.7-1) just couldn't get past the winner, Songa (17.5-1). Incidentally, I feel like I betrayed all that Mark Cramer ever tried to teach me in his writings by not having Songa, as a horse making its second start while trading a bug boy for a top rider was one of Cramer's favorite angles.
Well, if you can't win 'em all, no point in winning any of them; at least, that's what it seems like our motto was today. Oh, we did have the winner in the second leg, Race 7 as Win for Kitten (5.1-1) scored in her first try against winners. And we certainly gave it the old college try in Race 8, as we managed to have three-quarters of the Superfecta without having the Winner, Go Canes Go (10.3-1).
Race 9 saw the Post Time favorite, State Flag (2.7-1), whom we did not have, hold off late charges from Present Course (3.0-1), whom we also did not have, and Grandstand (6.5-1), whom we did have.
Race 10 was the Hurricane Bertie Stakes. We covered three of the nine horses that went to post; or, to put it another way, we covered half of the horses that finished out of the money. I should mention that Applauding (5.9-1), the filly about whom I've written on multiple occasions, showed that, while her body has returned to racing, her heart has not. In what could only loosely be referred to as an effort, Applauding jogged around the track, finishing last, almost twenty-five lengths behind the winner, Post Time favorite Golden Mystery (2.6-1). While it's possible that an injury may be to blame, I think it's fair to presume that Applauding has simply not regained her desire to compete on the track; only time will tell if she ever will.
The final race saw our other single, Si Senora (3.9-1) break in air, pretty much ending her race before it even began. She would finish seventh, a little over nine lengths behind the winner, Missy Miner (7.9-1).
So, the end result was that we wound up with one out of six winners on our Rainbow 6 ticket; a result that pays exactly as much as having five out of six winners. Those who were skillful enough to have the correct sequence of 9 / 9 / 8 / 2 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with $18,246.74 for their ten cent wager.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/10/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
As we settle in for the first Sunday of the year without football, I've decided to take another run at Gulstream Park's Rainbow 6. Playing on the cheap, I created a ticket with singles on each end. Odds are we'll be dead after the first leg; but if we can get past that, we could find ourselves in position for a dramatic finish.
RACE 6
# 11 Derby Watch (Morning Line 6-1) has shown enough early speed to make him a threat to steal this on the front end. Trainer Antonio Sano does quite well with the Turf to Dirt angle (15% / $4.31 ROI) and Derby Watch's up-and-down speed figure pattern suggests that he'll be on his game today. If he's not, this will be a short afternoon.
RACE 7
# 4 Rhythm Queen (ML 3-1) and # 1 I Know It All (ML 4-1) finished less than a length apart the last time they hooked up, which was a race at this distance under these conditions run over this turf course. # 9 Win for Kitten (ML 6-1) tries her hand against winners for the first time; but her speed figures and Trainer Christopher Clement's stat line suggests that she belongs.
RACE 8
# 5 Celebrator (ML 5-2) debuts for Trainer Todd Pletcher, who does quite well with first timers (35% / $2.38 ROI). Celebrator's sire is Elusive Quality, whose offspring also do quite well (appx 15% winners) the first time they compete. # 7 Ruffalex (ML 3-1) and # 6 Saint X. (ML 6-1) are virtually tied for best last-out Beyer in the field; Ruffalex has the edge in breeding (as expressed in his Dst Tomlinson of 410) while Saint X.'s Beyer was back in November while still a two year old, suggesting that a couple of months of growing up could bring significant improvement. # 10 Head for the Exits (ML 10-1) is another sired by Elusive Quality making his debut, in this case for the barn of Graham Motion.
RACE 9
# 4 Unbridled War (ML 5-1) has the best Turf and Turf Dst Tomlinsons in the field. # 6 Grandstand (ML 7-2) gets his third start under Jockey Joe Bravo; Grandstand has finished in the money both times with Bravo on board at this level on the grass. #12 Quiet Danger (ML 8-1) had his closest to the winner finish approximately one year ago over this turf course, his only start with Jockey Paco Lopez on top; Lopez gets the mount again today. Quiet Danger's Beyers are very consistent when the turf is firm.
RACE 10 - The Hurricane Bertie Stakes
# 2 R Holiday Mood (ML 3-1) won this event last year for Trainer Todd Pletcher; Johnny V will be on board once again. # 9 Emma's Encore (ML 5-1) is a Grade 1 winner that may just be prepping here; if she gives full effort, she'll be tough to beat. # 8 Applauding (ML 10-1), making her first start for Trainer Michael Matz, is a sentimental choice, which should be obvious to anyone who's been following this blog.
RACE 11
# 6 Si Senora (ML 4-1) is the other single on this ticket. She won at this level over this track at this distance two back (the race in which she was claimed by current Trainer Marcial Navarro); three back she Showed at this level, while her last time out she just missed by two lengths against more expensive.
Our ticket therefore looks as follows:
RACE 6: 11
RACE 7: 1, 4, 9
RACE 8: 5, 6, 7, 10
RACE 9: 4, 6, 12
RACE 10: 2, 8, 9
RACE 11: 6
Play it just like that, and the whole thing will cost you $10.80.
Post Time is 3:05 EST / 12:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
# 11 Derby Watch (Morning Line 6-1) has shown enough early speed to make him a threat to steal this on the front end. Trainer Antonio Sano does quite well with the Turf to Dirt angle (15% / $4.31 ROI) and Derby Watch's up-and-down speed figure pattern suggests that he'll be on his game today. If he's not, this will be a short afternoon.
RACE 7
# 4 Rhythm Queen (ML 3-1) and # 1 I Know It All (ML 4-1) finished less than a length apart the last time they hooked up, which was a race at this distance under these conditions run over this turf course. # 9 Win for Kitten (ML 6-1) tries her hand against winners for the first time; but her speed figures and Trainer Christopher Clement's stat line suggests that she belongs.
RACE 8
# 5 Celebrator (ML 5-2) debuts for Trainer Todd Pletcher, who does quite well with first timers (35% / $2.38 ROI). Celebrator's sire is Elusive Quality, whose offspring also do quite well (appx 15% winners) the first time they compete. # 7 Ruffalex (ML 3-1) and # 6 Saint X. (ML 6-1) are virtually tied for best last-out Beyer in the field; Ruffalex has the edge in breeding (as expressed in his Dst Tomlinson of 410) while Saint X.'s Beyer was back in November while still a two year old, suggesting that a couple of months of growing up could bring significant improvement. # 10 Head for the Exits (ML 10-1) is another sired by Elusive Quality making his debut, in this case for the barn of Graham Motion.
RACE 9
# 4 Unbridled War (ML 5-1) has the best Turf and Turf Dst Tomlinsons in the field. # 6 Grandstand (ML 7-2) gets his third start under Jockey Joe Bravo; Grandstand has finished in the money both times with Bravo on board at this level on the grass. #12 Quiet Danger (ML 8-1) had his closest to the winner finish approximately one year ago over this turf course, his only start with Jockey Paco Lopez on top; Lopez gets the mount again today. Quiet Danger's Beyers are very consistent when the turf is firm.
RACE 10 - The Hurricane Bertie Stakes
# 2 R Holiday Mood (ML 3-1) won this event last year for Trainer Todd Pletcher; Johnny V will be on board once again. # 9 Emma's Encore (ML 5-1) is a Grade 1 winner that may just be prepping here; if she gives full effort, she'll be tough to beat. # 8 Applauding (ML 10-1), making her first start for Trainer Michael Matz, is a sentimental choice, which should be obvious to anyone who's been following this blog.
RACE 11
# 6 Si Senora (ML 4-1) is the other single on this ticket. She won at this level over this track at this distance two back (the race in which she was claimed by current Trainer Marcial Navarro); three back she Showed at this level, while her last time out she just missed by two lengths against more expensive.
Our ticket therefore looks as follows:
RACE 6: 11
RACE 7: 1, 4, 9
RACE 8: 5, 6, 7, 10
RACE 9: 4, 6, 12
RACE 10: 2, 8, 9
RACE 11: 6
Play it just like that, and the whole thing will cost you $10.80.
Post Time is 3:05 EST / 12:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
7/1/12 BHP Race 6 - Key Race - Update
Perfect Set, a three year old colt by Pleasantly Perfect out of an A. P. Indy mare, took the Show in Saturday's fourth race at Santa Anita, a nine furlong MSW contested on some California grass. That result means that Key Race 7/1/2012 BHP Race 6, first noted here August 1, 2012, has now come back in full:
Heir of Storm - 4th 8/5/12 DMR Race 8
Dead Easy - 6th 12/15/12 BHP Race 8
Moreno - 7th 8/5/12 DMR Race 8
Dry Summer - WIN 7/28/12 DMR Race 1
Dirty Swagg - 7th 7/14/12 BHP Race 2
Den's Legacy - PLACE 7/12/12 DMR Race 6
No Rachmones - SHOW 7/19/12 DMR Race 2
Fury Kapcori - WIN 8/18/12 GG Race 7
Perfect Set - SHOW 2/9/13 SA Race 4
Papa G. T. - WIN 7/29/15 DMR Race 1
Cinco de Mario - 4th 8/15/12 DMR Race 4
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Heir of Storm - 4th 8/5/12 DMR Race 8
Dead Easy - 6th 12/15/12 BHP Race 8
Moreno - 7th 8/5/12 DMR Race 8
Dry Summer - WIN 7/28/12 DMR Race 1
Dirty Swagg - 7th 7/14/12 BHP Race 2
Den's Legacy - PLACE 7/12/12 DMR Race 6
No Rachmones - SHOW 7/19/12 DMR Race 2
Fury Kapcori - WIN 8/18/12 GG Race 7
Perfect Set - SHOW 2/9/13 SA Race 4
Papa G. T. - WIN 7/29/15 DMR Race 1
Cinco de Mario - 4th 8/15/12 DMR Race 4
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/9/13 GG R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim by Trainer / Owner Victor Trujillo that we've been following, made his eight start for the Trujillo barn Saturday at Golden Gate. The four year old gelding faced the same class level as his prior start (Claiming $6250 Non-Winners of Two Lifetime), but at the sprinter's distance of six furlongs on the synthetic main track.
City Chapel (Final Odds 11.4-1) broke last in the field of seven, was still last at the half, and, to quote the chart caller, "was gaining but too late." City Chapel's effort was good enough for third place, paying $4.00 to Show. City Chapel's in the money finish was also worth $1350 in purse money, bringing his total earnings under Trujillo to $10,275.
So City Chapel again shows his ability to be competitive while staunchly avoiding the Winner's Circle. The profit he brings to his current connections since being claimed for $4,000 last August continues to grow; yet he still hasn't achieved that second career victory (and first for Trujillo).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel (Final Odds 11.4-1) broke last in the field of seven, was still last at the half, and, to quote the chart caller, "was gaining but too late." City Chapel's effort was good enough for third place, paying $4.00 to Show. City Chapel's in the money finish was also worth $1350 in purse money, bringing his total earnings under Trujillo to $10,275.
So City Chapel again shows his ability to be competitive while staunchly avoiding the Winner's Circle. The profit he brings to his current connections since being claimed for $4,000 last August continues to grow; yet he still hasn't achieved that second career victory (and first for Trujillo).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 9, 2013
2/9/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
Well, unlike last Saturday, there was no drama this week, as we got knocked out of the box in the very first leg.
I was correct in my opinion that Jack Milton (Final Odds 0.7-1) would have difficulties facing winners for the first time. Unfortunately, while I threw a wide net, it wasn't wide enough, as Race 7 at Gulfstream Park went to Fire Guard (6.4-1), a horse not to be found on any of my tickets.
For the record, we did have the winner in the second leg; as Point of Entry (2.1-1) took The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. I know many who saw the race came away thinking Jockey Joel Rosario made his move on Animal Kingdom (0.8-1) much too soon; but, in Rosario's defense, when you're on a closer, and the opening half is walked out in 50.52 seconds, patience is not a virtue: you've got to take your shot, or sit back and watch the race get stolen out from under you.
On the plus side, I was correct to single against the favorite, Bahamian Squall, in The Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship. On the minus side, the horse I singled, Travelin Man (2.3-1) finished even further behind the winner, the Nick Zito trained Fort Loudon (3.8-1), than Bahamian Squall did. Right idea; wrong horse.
Channel Lady (3.8-1) took the fourth leg, The Suwannee River, as neither of my selections, Kya One (Fr) (3.3-1) nor Hard Not to Like (2.9-1) finished in the money. Leg five, The Donn Handicap, went to Graydar (5.7-1), who wired the field in 1:48.25, less than a second off the track record for the distance of 1:47.49, set by Quality Road in the 2010 running of this event. Our single in this race, Csaba (10.8-1) had a nice rail trip chasing the pace, but ran out of gas in the stretch.
The final leg of the Rainbow Six, Race 12, was the other race in which we spread wide; and this time we had the winner in our picks: Kid Lightning (3.6-1), the only Post Time favorite to win one of the Rainbow Six races, and one of only three Post Time favorites to cross the wire first on Gulfstream Park's Saturday card.
So, we caught two out of six this time, which pays just as much as last Saturday's five out of six.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For those who did a better job of handicapping today than I did, the Rainbow Six of 7 / 2 / 5 / 5 / 4 / 2 paid $1,590.59 for a ten cent wager. Congrats to all who had it.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
I was correct in my opinion that Jack Milton (Final Odds 0.7-1) would have difficulties facing winners for the first time. Unfortunately, while I threw a wide net, it wasn't wide enough, as Race 7 at Gulfstream Park went to Fire Guard (6.4-1), a horse not to be found on any of my tickets.
For the record, we did have the winner in the second leg; as Point of Entry (2.1-1) took The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. I know many who saw the race came away thinking Jockey Joel Rosario made his move on Animal Kingdom (0.8-1) much too soon; but, in Rosario's defense, when you're on a closer, and the opening half is walked out in 50.52 seconds, patience is not a virtue: you've got to take your shot, or sit back and watch the race get stolen out from under you.
On the plus side, I was correct to single against the favorite, Bahamian Squall, in The Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship. On the minus side, the horse I singled, Travelin Man (2.3-1) finished even further behind the winner, the Nick Zito trained Fort Loudon (3.8-1), than Bahamian Squall did. Right idea; wrong horse.
Channel Lady (3.8-1) took the fourth leg, The Suwannee River, as neither of my selections, Kya One (Fr) (3.3-1) nor Hard Not to Like (2.9-1) finished in the money. Leg five, The Donn Handicap, went to Graydar (5.7-1), who wired the field in 1:48.25, less than a second off the track record for the distance of 1:47.49, set by Quality Road in the 2010 running of this event. Our single in this race, Csaba (10.8-1) had a nice rail trip chasing the pace, but ran out of gas in the stretch.
The final leg of the Rainbow Six, Race 12, was the other race in which we spread wide; and this time we had the winner in our picks: Kid Lightning (3.6-1), the only Post Time favorite to win one of the Rainbow Six races, and one of only three Post Time favorites to cross the wire first on Gulfstream Park's Saturday card.
So, we caught two out of six this time, which pays just as much as last Saturday's five out of six.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For those who did a better job of handicapping today than I did, the Rainbow Six of 7 / 2 / 5 / 5 / 4 / 2 paid $1,590.59 for a ten cent wager. Congrats to all who had it.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/9/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
Last week we got action; let's see if Providence this week will allow us to cash. On the 49th anniversary of The Beatles first appearance on the Ed Sullivan Show, this is the Rainbow Six ticket that I'll be playing today at Gulfstream:
RACE 7
# 5 Jack Milton (Morning Line 3-1) could be a standout; those of you looking to cheapen this ticket should give serious thought to making him a single. As for me, I just don't have enough confidence to take him alone in his first try against winners; so I spread a bit in this one. # 6 Hansel Tazwell (ML 20-1) just won an N1X her last time out, at this same track at this same distance over this same turf course; those looking for a long shot play of the day could do worse.
RACE 8 - The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap
# 2 Point of Entry (ML 9-5) really prefers more distance; but his talent may be enough to take these. # 6 Animal Kingdom (ML 8-5) may not have enough pace to chase; but, as with Point of Entry, there's too much talent there to leave out. # 4 Unbridled Command (ML 15-1) just might steal this one on the front end; note also that Unbridled Command is the only horse in this field coming off a Grade 1 win his last time out.
RACE 9 - The Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship
# 2 Travelin Man (ML 5-2) has disappointed twice in a row as the Post Time favorite. But he loves this course (four Wins and one Place in five lifetime starts) and Trainer Todd Pletcher loves to win this race (Munnings in 2010; Half Ours in 2007; Lion Tamer in 2004; and Rare Rock in 1998). Here's hoping Jockey Johnny V can map out a winning trip.
RACE 10 - The Suwannee River
# 3 Kya One (Fr) (ML 5-1) looks to be the best of the bunch; but there may not be enough pace for her to chase in this one (a common theme on this card). # 4 Hard Not to Like (ML 7-2) took the Grade 3 Marshua's River on this turf course last month; she should appreciate the extra half-furlong.
RACE 11 - The Donn
# 7 Csaba (ML 4-1) takes a step up into Grade 1 company; but he likes this track (two-for-three lifetime) he likes this distance (two-for-four lifetime) and he definitely likes Jockey Luis Saez on his back (six Wins in seven starts under Saez, with the one loss being by less than a length). I expect Csaba get first run at the early speed today, which, in my mind, makes him a prime candidate to score.
RACE 12
Another wide spread, as the overwhelming majority of this maiden field is making its career grass debut. I may regret not hitting the "ALL" button on this one.
So, with all that, my Rainbow Six Ticket is:
RACE 7: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
RACE 8: 2, 4, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 3, 4
RACE 11: 7
RACE 12: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9
Total Cost: $21.60
Post Time is 3:33 EST / 12:33 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7
# 5 Jack Milton (Morning Line 3-1) could be a standout; those of you looking to cheapen this ticket should give serious thought to making him a single. As for me, I just don't have enough confidence to take him alone in his first try against winners; so I spread a bit in this one. # 6 Hansel Tazwell (ML 20-1) just won an N1X her last time out, at this same track at this same distance over this same turf course; those looking for a long shot play of the day could do worse.
RACE 8 - The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap
# 2 Point of Entry (ML 9-5) really prefers more distance; but his talent may be enough to take these. # 6 Animal Kingdom (ML 8-5) may not have enough pace to chase; but, as with Point of Entry, there's too much talent there to leave out. # 4 Unbridled Command (ML 15-1) just might steal this one on the front end; note also that Unbridled Command is the only horse in this field coming off a Grade 1 win his last time out.
RACE 9 - The Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship
# 2 Travelin Man (ML 5-2) has disappointed twice in a row as the Post Time favorite. But he loves this course (four Wins and one Place in five lifetime starts) and Trainer Todd Pletcher loves to win this race (Munnings in 2010; Half Ours in 2007; Lion Tamer in 2004; and Rare Rock in 1998). Here's hoping Jockey Johnny V can map out a winning trip.
RACE 10 - The Suwannee River
# 3 Kya One (Fr) (ML 5-1) looks to be the best of the bunch; but there may not be enough pace for her to chase in this one (a common theme on this card). # 4 Hard Not to Like (ML 7-2) took the Grade 3 Marshua's River on this turf course last month; she should appreciate the extra half-furlong.
RACE 11 - The Donn
# 7 Csaba (ML 4-1) takes a step up into Grade 1 company; but he likes this track (two-for-three lifetime) he likes this distance (two-for-four lifetime) and he definitely likes Jockey Luis Saez on his back (six Wins in seven starts under Saez, with the one loss being by less than a length). I expect Csaba get first run at the early speed today, which, in my mind, makes him a prime candidate to score.
RACE 12
Another wide spread, as the overwhelming majority of this maiden field is making its career grass debut. I may regret not hitting the "ALL" button on this one.
So, with all that, my Rainbow Six Ticket is:
RACE 7: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
RACE 8: 2, 4, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 3, 4
RACE 11: 7
RACE 12: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9
Total Cost: $21.60
Post Time is 3:33 EST / 12:33 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Applauding Entered in Grade 3 Stakes Sunday
I've posted on several occasions about this girl; but, to bring everyone quickly up to speed: Applauding, a four year old filly by Congrats out of a Forestry mare, broke the track record at Keeneland in her debut as a two year old; won her second race by a half-dozen lengths at Louisiana's Fair Grounds; and then, despite no noticeable injury, took almost a full year's vacation before winning her third career start at Churchill Downs in November. Three wins in three career starts at three different tracks with three different jockeys.
After her win in November, Trainer Al Stall was quoted as saying that he would take Applauding to Oaklawn Park for their winter meet. So, after a couple of workouts at Keeneland in December, it was off to Arkansas, where Applauding worked four furlongs on January 7.
But competing at Hot Springs was not to be; as Applauding's owner, Ramona Bass, decided to transfer Applauding to Trainer Michael Matz, shipping the filly to South Florida, where she's been working out at Palm Meadows. Since her victory at Churchill Downs back in November, Applauding's public workouts have been:
12/06 - Kee - 4F - 50.20 - 8/9
12/15 - Kee - 5F - 60.80 - 1/8
01/07 - OP - 4F - 49.80 - 4/41
01/24 - PmM - 4F - 50.02 - 19/21
01/30 - PmM - 4F - 48.77 - 2/24
02/04 - PmM - 4F - 47.80 - 1/52
Applauding has now been entered in Sunday's Race 10 at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes. Presuming that she makes it to the starting gate, it will most likely be the first race of Applauding's career where she will not be the Post Time favorite; that distinction may possibly go to the highweight in the field, Applauding's half-sister Emma's Encore, of whom we posted here last Summer after she won the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes at 39-1.
So, Good Lord willing, Applauding will finally get to face graded stakes competition Sunday. Here's hoping that she makes it to post and has a safe trip.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
After her win in November, Trainer Al Stall was quoted as saying that he would take Applauding to Oaklawn Park for their winter meet. So, after a couple of workouts at Keeneland in December, it was off to Arkansas, where Applauding worked four furlongs on January 7.
But competing at Hot Springs was not to be; as Applauding's owner, Ramona Bass, decided to transfer Applauding to Trainer Michael Matz, shipping the filly to South Florida, where she's been working out at Palm Meadows. Since her victory at Churchill Downs back in November, Applauding's public workouts have been:
12/06 - Kee - 4F - 50.20 - 8/9
12/15 - Kee - 5F - 60.80 - 1/8
01/07 - OP - 4F - 49.80 - 4/41
01/24 - PmM - 4F - 50.02 - 19/21
01/30 - PmM - 4F - 48.77 - 2/24
02/04 - PmM - 4F - 47.80 - 1/52
Applauding has now been entered in Sunday's Race 10 at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes. Presuming that she makes it to the starting gate, it will most likely be the first race of Applauding's career where she will not be the Post Time favorite; that distinction may possibly go to the highweight in the field, Applauding's half-sister Emma's Encore, of whom we posted here last Summer after she won the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes at 39-1.
So, Good Lord willing, Applauding will finally get to face graded stakes competition Sunday. Here's hoping that she makes it to post and has a safe trip.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Frankie Lovato's 365 Days of Terminology
My apologies for being a bit slow out of the gate with this, but here goes:
Frank Lovato Jr, retired jockey and inventor of The Equicizer, began a project on January 1 of creating 365 videos of racing terminology, one for each day of the current year. The goal of the project is to bring attention to Jockey World, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to providing reliable information, tools, guidance, and resources, including knowledge in health and safety, to anyone who wishes to pursue a career within, or develop a better understanding of, the horse racing industry.
The videos are available at Lovato's YouTube channel; or, if you prefer, you can sign up at the Jockey World website to have the videos delivered daily to your inbox. I've sampled a few myself (including the one below) and have found them to be educational and entertaining; hopefully, you will as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Frank Lovato Jr, retired jockey and inventor of The Equicizer, began a project on January 1 of creating 365 videos of racing terminology, one for each day of the current year. The goal of the project is to bring attention to Jockey World, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to providing reliable information, tools, guidance, and resources, including knowledge in health and safety, to anyone who wishes to pursue a career within, or develop a better understanding of, the horse racing industry.
The videos are available at Lovato's YouTube channel; or, if you prefer, you can sign up at the Jockey World website to have the videos delivered daily to your inbox. I've sampled a few myself (including the one below) and have found them to be educational and entertaining; hopefully, you will as well.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Gulfstream Park v Santa Anita
I don't have much of real substance here, but I did want to mention a few of the positives that I experienced Saturday in playing Gulfstream Park over Santa Anita. For example, I liked being able to play a Pick Six with a small bankroll (for example, my $7.20 play at Gulfstream yesterday would have cost $144 with a $2 minimum). I liked that the Pick Five races were all part of the Pick Six, so that no additional handicapping was required to play both (in SoCal, the Pick 5 starts the card, while the Pick 6 ends it, so there's minimal overlap).
I liked playing $1 Doubles and $1 WPS wagers (SoCal still has a $2 minimum for these bets); not so much because it's easier on the bankroll, but primarily because it makes it easier to leverage opinions and hedge your main plays. For these same reasons, I liked the $0.50 minimum for the Trifecta vs the $1 minimum at Santa Anita.
Does the above mean that I'll be switching circuits? Probably not; West Coast races run at a time of day that's better suited to my schedule than the East Coast circuit. I also like that, with the exception of the Winter months, you virtually never have to consider anything other than fast tracks and firm turfs when handicapping the SoCal tracks. But it certainly would be nice to see Santa Anita / Hollywood / Del Mar make some of the changes mentioned above.
So what do you folks think? What changes would you like to see your local circuit make to its wagering menu? Conversely, what are they doing that you like that you hope they never change?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2/2/13 GP Rainbow Six - Results
I closed my previous post with the hope that we would at least get some cheap action from our Rainbow 6 play. Well, I think it's fair to say that we definitely got that.
Dreaming of Lucy (Final Odds 5.0-1) kicked off the sequence by winning Race 6. Race 7 saw Hobbs (2.9-1) crossing the wire first; so not singling Tricky Hat (Chi) (1.4-1) was a smart move after all. So far, so good; after all, you can't win 'em all if you don't win those first two.
Next came the toughest part of the sequence, as we had back to back singles. By the Grace of the Almighty they both came in, with Doherty (1.4-1) winning Race 8 and Burn the Mortgage (3.1-1) taking Race 9. Just two more races to go!
Race 10 was the Hutcheson Stakes. We covered the two shortest-priced horses in the field, Honorable Dillon (2.6-1) and Forty Tales (1.8-1), and they ran one-two, with less than a length between them. Just one more race to go!
We've got a half dozen entries covered for the final leg of our Rainbow 6. Here are the will pays going into the final race:
Oistin's Town: $1159.06
Autobahn Legend: $1595.81
Pick of the Litter: $2270.32
Big Henry: $6673.39
Reach for the Sky: $3796.93
Drenched: $1112.23
Not too bad for an investment of seven dollars and twenty cents.
But, alas, it wasn't meant to be, as North Slope (2.9-1) led the field home in Race 11, crossing the wire a length and a half in front of Oistin's Town (4.0-1) and two and three quarter lengths ahead of Drenched (3.1-1). So we've got six tickets with five out of six winners which, under the Rainbow 6 rules, pays ........... ................ absolutely nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, February 2, 2013
2/2/13 GP Rainbow Six - Preview
Going for a little change of pace (well, change of venue) today by switching coasts to take a run at Gulfstream Park's Rainbow 6; the final six races on Saturday's card. To be honest, I don't have a whole lot of confidence in this ticket; even playing it for a dime, I made more cuts from the ticket than I feel comfortable about, in order to keep it affordable. So, with that caveat, here goes:
RACE 6
# 9 Form Fitting (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this distance against open company her last time out; moving to state bred competition should only help. Note also that the one that beat her by half a length came back to win her next out. # 1 Dreaming of Lucy (ML 6-1) makes her debut in a field in which she has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance. Trainer Kirk Ziadie are unreal in the relevant categories, albeit with the small sample size caveat.
RACE 7
# 4 Saint Pete (ML 8-1) missed by a length sprinting against this level his last out; the Tomlinsons say he should handle the distance; if he does, he could wire this bunch. # 8 Hobbs (ML 5-1) was a stakes winner bake in November and missed by less than two at this level his last time out. # 10 Tricky Hat (2-1) freaked his last time out (his turf debut) winning a key race with this field's best last out Beyer; I may regret not singling this one.
RACE 8
# 2 Doherty (ML 5-2) missed by a half length at this class level and distance his last out. Best last out Beyer in the field, tied for best Dst Tomlinson in the group, and is in the hands of the Pletcher / Johnny V partnership.
RACE 9
# 5 Burn the Mortgage (ML 4-1) won at this level his last time out, his Gulfstream turf debut. All he has to do is do it again, just for a half-length more with a price tag on his head. He has crossed the wire first at this distance on the grass, but a DQ kept him from getting his picture taken.
RACE 10
# 1 Forty Tales (ML 4-1) is the Pletcher / Johnny V combo again, this time with a horse unbeaten in his career stepping up into Graded Stakes company. His Beyers say he can compete at this level, and the over-abundance of early speed should work to his advantage. Expect # 8 Honorable Dillion (ML 8-1) to be running late as well.
RACE 11
Had # 12 Drenched (ML 7-2) drawn a position in the same zip code of the rail, he would be my single here. But the far outside is not the place to be on a grass race that starts right on the turn; so tossing in a few more as insurance: # 3 Oistin's Town (ML 5-1); # 4 Autobahn Legend (6-1); # 6 Pick of the Litter (ML 8-1); # 8 Big Henry (ML 15-1) and # 10 Reach for the Sky (ML 10-1).
So, with all that, our ticket goes:
RACE 6: 1, 9
RACE 7: 4, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 5
RACE 10: 1, 8
RACE 11: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
Again, not a ticket in which I have a great deal of faith; but if you play it for a dime, the total cost is $7.20; so, hopefully we can at least get some cheap action from it.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:05 EST / 12:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6
# 9 Form Fitting (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this distance against open company her last time out; moving to state bred competition should only help. Note also that the one that beat her by half a length came back to win her next out. # 1 Dreaming of Lucy (ML 6-1) makes her debut in a field in which she has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance. Trainer Kirk Ziadie are unreal in the relevant categories, albeit with the small sample size caveat.
RACE 7
# 4 Saint Pete (ML 8-1) missed by a length sprinting against this level his last out; the Tomlinsons say he should handle the distance; if he does, he could wire this bunch. # 8 Hobbs (ML 5-1) was a stakes winner bake in November and missed by less than two at this level his last time out. # 10 Tricky Hat (2-1) freaked his last time out (his turf debut) winning a key race with this field's best last out Beyer; I may regret not singling this one.
RACE 8
# 2 Doherty (ML 5-2) missed by a half length at this class level and distance his last out. Best last out Beyer in the field, tied for best Dst Tomlinson in the group, and is in the hands of the Pletcher / Johnny V partnership.
RACE 9
# 5 Burn the Mortgage (ML 4-1) won at this level his last time out, his Gulfstream turf debut. All he has to do is do it again, just for a half-length more with a price tag on his head. He has crossed the wire first at this distance on the grass, but a DQ kept him from getting his picture taken.
RACE 10
# 1 Forty Tales (ML 4-1) is the Pletcher / Johnny V combo again, this time with a horse unbeaten in his career stepping up into Graded Stakes company. His Beyers say he can compete at this level, and the over-abundance of early speed should work to his advantage. Expect # 8 Honorable Dillion (ML 8-1) to be running late as well.
RACE 11
Had # 12 Drenched (ML 7-2) drawn a position in the same zip code of the rail, he would be my single here. But the far outside is not the place to be on a grass race that starts right on the turn; so tossing in a few more as insurance: # 3 Oistin's Town (ML 5-1); # 4 Autobahn Legend (6-1); # 6 Pick of the Litter (ML 8-1); # 8 Big Henry (ML 15-1) and # 10 Reach for the Sky (ML 10-1).
So, with all that, our ticket goes:
RACE 6: 1, 9
RACE 7: 4, 8, 10
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 5
RACE 10: 1, 8
RACE 11: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12
Again, not a ticket in which I have a great deal of faith; but if you play it for a dime, the total cost is $7.20; so, hopefully we can at least get some cheap action from it.
Post time for Race 6 is 3:05 EST / 12:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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