As we settle in for the first Sunday of the year without football, I've decided to take another run at Gulstream Park's Rainbow 6. Playing on the cheap, I created a ticket with singles on each end. Odds are we'll be dead after the first leg; but if we can get past that, we could find ourselves in position for a dramatic finish.
RACE 6
# 11 Derby Watch (Morning Line 6-1) has shown enough early speed to make him a threat to steal this on the front end. Trainer Antonio Sano does quite well with the Turf to Dirt angle (15% / $4.31 ROI) and Derby Watch's up-and-down speed figure pattern suggests that he'll be on his game today. If he's not, this will be a short afternoon.
RACE 7
# 4 Rhythm Queen (ML 3-1) and # 1 I Know It All (ML 4-1) finished less than a length apart the last time they hooked up, which was a race at this distance under these conditions run over this turf course. # 9 Win for Kitten (ML 6-1) tries her hand against winners for the first time; but her speed figures and Trainer Christopher Clement's stat line suggests that she belongs.
RACE 8
# 5 Celebrator (ML 5-2) debuts for Trainer Todd Pletcher, who does quite well with first timers (35% / $2.38 ROI). Celebrator's sire is Elusive Quality, whose offspring also do quite well (appx 15% winners) the first time they compete. # 7 Ruffalex (ML 3-1) and # 6 Saint X. (ML 6-1) are virtually tied for best last-out Beyer in the field; Ruffalex has the edge in breeding (as expressed in his Dst Tomlinson of 410) while Saint X.'s Beyer was back in November while still a two year old, suggesting that a couple of months of growing up could bring significant improvement. # 10 Head for the Exits (ML 10-1) is another sired by Elusive Quality making his debut, in this case for the barn of Graham Motion.
RACE 9
# 4 Unbridled War (ML 5-1) has the best Turf and Turf Dst Tomlinsons in the field. # 6 Grandstand (ML 7-2) gets his third start under Jockey Joe Bravo; Grandstand has finished in the money both times with Bravo on board at this level on the grass. #12 Quiet Danger (ML 8-1) had his closest to the winner finish approximately one year ago over this turf course, his only start with Jockey Paco Lopez on top; Lopez gets the mount again today. Quiet Danger's Beyers are very consistent when the turf is firm.
RACE 10 - The Hurricane Bertie Stakes
# 2 R Holiday Mood (ML 3-1) won this event last year for Trainer Todd Pletcher; Johnny V will be on board once again. # 9 Emma's Encore (ML 5-1) is a Grade 1 winner that may just be prepping here; if she gives full effort, she'll be tough to beat. # 8 Applauding (ML 10-1), making her first start for Trainer Michael Matz, is a sentimental choice, which should be obvious to anyone who's been following this blog.
RACE 11
# 6 Si Senora (ML 4-1) is the other single on this ticket. She won at this level over this track at this distance two back (the race in which she was claimed by current Trainer Marcial Navarro); three back she Showed at this level, while her last time out she just missed by two lengths against more expensive.
Our ticket therefore looks as follows:
RACE 6: 11
RACE 7: 1, 4, 9
RACE 8: 5, 6, 7, 10
RACE 9: 4, 6, 12
RACE 10: 2, 8, 9
RACE 11: 6
Play it just like that, and the whole thing will cost you $10.80.
Post Time is 3:05 EST / 12:05 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2 comments:
Applauding better head up to Golden Gate.
To say Applauding did not make a good showing is, needless to say, an understatement. She obviously lost a lot spending that year away from the track. Will she ever get it back? More pointedly, does she want it back? Remember, she took all that time off, not because she was injured, but because she simply lost interest in racing. Only time will tell if she will ever return to the level she once was.
Peace and Love,
Jim
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