11/28/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 1 J C's Nightcap (Final Odds 7.80) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 3 Oh What Luck (1.00*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 1 Nautical Gem (1.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Knowyouroptions (1.70*) - "B" Selection

Keeping it short, the story of the night was that my big ticket single, # 5 Drc All Inclusive (0.70*), was a neck too slow in getting under the wire in the opening leg, and had to settle for the Place.  Or, looked at another way, the Post Time Favorite came through in every contest except the one where I had him as a single.  But regardless of how you look at it, the bottom line is I had all but one; and missing one is all that it took to make Saturday a night for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  1 / 3 / 1 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $115.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/28/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"Reflect upon your present blessings, of which every man has plenty; not on your past misfortunes, of which all men have some." - Charles Dickens

As the holiday weekend continues on in the USA, hopefully all of you, wherever you may be, are continually finding things for which to be grateful.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Drc All Inclusive (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 J C's Nightcap (ML 10-1)
# 2 Daaher's Success (ML 5-1)
# 3 Bourbon Cowboy (ML 7-2)
# 4 He's Munnie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Game Loading (ML 8-1)
# 7 Trumpence (ML 8-1)

Note that the Claiming Price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $30k; so if you want to purchase Daaher's Success at the claiming box, it'll cost you an extra five grand.

If you're going to single, might as well do it in the first leg and get it over with.  Drc All Inclusive took the Place at this class level two starts back over this main track.  Speaking of this main track, Drc All Inclusive has finished in the Trifecta fifteen of the the sixteen times that he has competed on the Remington Park dirt.  So it's Drc All Inclusive solo on the main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - Clm $25k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sermon by the Sea (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 3 Oh What Luck (ML 2-1)

# 5 Good Scout (ML 15-1)

C's

# 2 Something Super (ML 3-1)

# 4 Word to the Wise (ML 10-1)

# 6 Heritage Park (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 7 Moro Said Ready (ML 20-1)

As in the prior event, Oklahoma breds will cost you $5k more; so if you want Oh What Luck or Word to the Wise, then they will cost you thirty thousand dollars each.

Sermon by the Sea took the Place at this class level last time out, while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Good Scout is getting some class relief while going second off the claim for Trainer J. R. Caldwell, who tends to do well with such.

Oh What Luck is a perfect two-for-two in his racing career, and is returning to competition after an absence of over a year.  If Oh What Luck can return to the form that he showed in 2019, then Oh What Luck will win this one for fun.  On the other hand, if his connections thought that Oh What Luck could return to the form that he showed in 2019, then he probably wouldn't be up for sale here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Staythirstymyamigo (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Nautical Gem (ML 7-5)

C's

# 2 Big Tiny (ML 3-1)

# 3 Bonnet (ML 5-2)
# 4 Tell Me U Love Me (ML 20-1)
# 6 Whew (ML 20-1)

Staythirstymyamigo was victorious last time out in her first try over this main track; and Staythirstymyamigo appears to be in sharp enough form to handle the rise in class.  Nautical Gem took the Show at this class level the last time that she competed on the main track.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - Clm $7.5k N3L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Cairo King (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 C H Jay (ML 8-1)

# 4 Knowyouroptions (ML 2-1)

# 6 Staccato (ML 30-1)

# 9 Clifton Park (ML 5-1)

# 11 Port Hunter (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Nacogdoches (ML 10-1)

# 3 Charlie's Schiller (ML 15-1)

# 5 With the Band (ML 30-1)

# 7 Bell Ringer (ML 20-1)

# 10 Bernardian (ML 30-1)

The Claiming Price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $10k; or, rather, it would be, were there any Oklahoma breds in this field.

Three starts back, Cairo King took the Place at this class level.  Two starts back, in his most recent dirt start, Cairo King crossed under the wire first at this class level, though he was disqualified and placed fourth.

Knowyouroptions and C H Jay filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  Staccato goes first time for the barn of Trainer Randy Oberlander, who tends to do well with such.

Clifton Park took the Show against more expensive stock last time out; and while that contest was on the turf, note that Clifton Park is a lifetime two-for-seven on a Fast dirt track.

Port Hunter showed little last time out; but if Port Hunter can rebound to the form that he showed two starts back, then Port Hunter can contend here.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 1 with 5 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3,5 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,8,9,11 $18.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,6,7 with 1 with 5 with 8 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 2,4,6 with 5 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 2,3,4,6 with 8 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1 with 5 with 1,3,5,7,10 $2.50

Total: $28.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EST / 7:27 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/21/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 10 Earnednevergiven (Final Odds 7.80) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 5 Day Dreamer (4.10) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Red N Wild (2.00*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 6 Forty Nine Model (1.50*) - "A" Selection

Needless to say, when you have only half the winners on your mult-race tickets, you have not had a good night of handicapping.  Worse still is that the two winners that I did have were both Post Time Favorites that I had not singled.

Looking at my two misses, Day Dreamer is one for which I perhaps could have given greater consideration.  Day Dreamer was going third off the layoff, suggesting that he could improve off his most recent effort.

Earnednevergiven would have been a much more difficult selection.  In a contest restricted to runners which had either not won a race at a mile or over since June 21, 2020, or which had not won four races in their career, Earnednevergiven qualified on both counts; having only three career victories entering Saturday's contest, and having not won a race at a mile or over since he broke his maiden back on August 16, 2018.  As for recency, you would have had to have gone eight starts back, back to November 8, 2019, to find the last time prior to Saturday night that Earnednevergiven had finished in the Trifecta.  So God bless all who had Earnednevergiven, because there was no way I was going to have him without hitting the "ALL" button.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  10 / 5 / 6 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $413.20 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/21/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"I truly believe we can either see the connections, celebrate them, and express gratitude for our blessings, or we can see life as a string of coincidences that have no meaning or connection. For me, I'm going to believe in miracles, celebrate life, rejoice in the views of eternity, and hope my choices will create a positive ripple effect in the lives of others. This is my choice." - Mike Ericksen

Note that there is a chance of evening showers in the Oklahoma City forecast; something to keep in mind with Saturday's nightcap being scheduled for the turf.  So with that announcement out of the way let's get to it, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Larch (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 3 Trustworthy (ML 3-1)

# 4 Cash Kitten (ML 8-1)

# 5 Proper Decorum (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Way Out West (ML 20-1)

# 6 Albireo (ML 12-1)

# 7 Towering Oak (ML 10-1)
# 8 Quality Production (ML 20-1)

# 9 John Allen (ML 30-1)
# 10 Earnednevergiven (ML 9-2)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race at a mile or over since June 21, 2020; OR

2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as an entrant has fewer than four career Wins, then they're eligible to run in this race.  If a runner has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come in the past five months at a distance of eight furlongs or more.  For the record Trustworthy, Albireo, John Allen and Earnednevergiven are the four entrants in this field with fewer than four career Wins.  Finally, note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds is $6.25k; or, rather, it would be if there were any Oklahoma breds in this field.

Larch was victorious at a very nice price over this main track last time out at a distance of seven furlongs.  Indeed, Larch has picked up three sprint Wins over the past five months, all at prices well worth having.  While I wouldn't expect Larch to leave the gate at high odds Saturday, I do think that Larch will do well with the stretch out; as Larch has run well at this distance in the past.

Trustworthy missed victory by just a head at this class level last time out.  The concern with Trustworthy is that he seems to settle for too many minor awards.

Cash Kitten took the Place against classier competition two starts back.  Incidentally, note that, for his career, Cash Kitten, son of Kitten's Joy, is oh-for-nine in his career on the grass; just a reminder that sometimes life doesn't turn out as you may have expected.  Proper Decorum took the Show at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Clm $7.5k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Popfly Two Six (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 3 You Should Talk (ML 5-1)

C's

# 4 Midknightwar (ML 6-1)
# 5 Day Dreamer (ML 9-2)
# 6 Awesome Party (ML 15-1)
# 7 Fresh One (ML 12-1)

# 8 Bumblebee (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 2 Wolowitz (ML 3-1)

Take note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $10k; so if you wish to purchase Popfly Two Six at the claiming box, you'll have to come across with an extra twenty-five hundred.

Popfly Two Six took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back; albeit on the grass.  You Should Talk took the Show at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 8 - OC 75k/N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Frosted Prayer (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Stone Cafe (ML 8-1)

# 4 Fast N Fine Worker (ML 5-2)

# 6 Red N Wild (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Waco Kid (ML 10-1)
# 3 The Influencer (ML 20-1)

# 9 Bizzy Legs (ML 20-1)
# 10 Vim and Vigor (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Bulls; # 7 Spotted Bull (ML 20-1) and # 8 Stans Hookin Bull (ML 20-1)

These are juveniles; and every entrant in this field, with the lone exception of Fast N Fine Worker, is in for the claim, even though all are eligible to run without a price tag on their head.  To be honest, that strikes me as rather odd; but, that's the way it is.

Frosted Prayer took the Show at this class level last time out while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite.  Stone Cafe graduated last time out over this main track by as many as he wanted; perhaps Stone Cafe will be able to handle to step up in class.

Fast N Fine Worker won by the length of the stretch at today's distance two starts back.  Red N Wild missed victory in the $60k Clever Trevor by just a head last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N2X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 6 Forty Nine Model (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Lady Gwen (ML 4-1)

# 3 Wedding Dance (ML 5-1)

# 5 Wishful Quality (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Diva de Kela (ML 8-1)

# 8 Kasserine Pass (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 7 Seeing Double (ML 15-1)

Note that Sweet Mary M is entered for the main track only; and since, as I mentioned intro, there is rain in the forecast, as I type this there is a chance that this contest will be taken off the turf.

EDIT - # 4 Sweet Mary M (ML 15-1) has now been scratched

Forty Nine Model enters this contest with a two race winning streak, both at today's distance over this turf course.  Lady Gwen, a winner two starts back, should appreciate the return to one turn racing.

Wedding Dance closed well to win last time out in her first ever try on the turf; perhaps grass is what Wedding Dance wanted all along.  Wishful Quality showed nothing last time out back in September; perhaps rest is just what she needed.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 5 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5 with 1,3 with 1,4,5,6 with 2,3,5,6 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,6,7,8,9,10 with 1 with 5 with 6 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 5 with 6 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2,3,9,10 with 6 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 5 with 1,8 $1.00

Total: $73.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EST / 7:27 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/14/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 5 Betty Jean (Final Odds 7.80) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 7 Chris and Dave (6.80) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Trevor's Call (16.30) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Tasmin (1.50*) - "B" Selection & "C" Selection*

* - # 11 Saucy Time, a "C" Selection, was a late scratch from Race 9.  I therefore received Post Time Favorite Tasmin in her place.

In the opening leg, Betty Jean got under the wire three quarters of a length in front of  "A" Selection and Place finisher # 1 Undivided (4.00*); while the second leg saw Chris and Dave beat "B" Selection and Place finisher # 6 Vangilder (3.80) to the line by half a length.

In retrospect I should have given greater consideration to Betty Jean, as her early speed predicted that she would be forwardly placed.  Additionally, Betty Jean had finished in the money at this class level in two of her previous three starts.

But making a case for Chris and Dave is much more difficult, seeing that he had finished out of the money in each of his three prior starts since re-joining the barn of Trainer Frederico Villafranco, crossing under the wire a combined thirty-seven and a quarter lengths behind the winner in those three events.  And that's before one considers that the connections were so anxious to get rid of Chris and Dave that they were offering him up for sale in an Optional Claiming contest where the conditions allowed him to run tag free (note that there were no takers at the claiming box).  So, while the main ticket contained the next two winners in the sequence, missing the first half of the series made Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  5 / 7 / 6 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $2,511.30 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/14/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed." - Napoleon Hill

The weather in Oklahoma City was wet Friday, resulting in a main track that was muddy and sealed, and all contests being moved off the turf.  Looking at the forecast for Saturday I feel confident that the main track will be at worst Good for the races below; but I can make no prediction regarding whether the turf sprint scheduled for the penultimate race will remain on the grass.  So with that caveat let's get to it, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k B - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Undivided (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 3 Icy Dawn (ML 20-1)

# 12 Breezy Bee (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Gp's Amazing Grace (ML 20-1)

# 5 Betty Jean (ML 20-1)

# 6 River Deputy (ML 8-1)

# 7 Yankee Pride (ML 10-1)

# 8 Bold Legend (ML 15-1)

# 9 Raging Gold Digger (ML 4-1)

# 11 Tic Toc Toccet (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 2 Barbess (ML 6-1) and # 10 Ruby Does Sparkle (ML 12-1)

This contest is restricted to fillies or mares which have either:

1) Not won two races in 2020; OR

2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a filly or mare has fewer than four career Wins, then she's eligible to run in this race.  If a filly or mare has four career Wins or more, then only one of those Wins could have come this year.  For the record Gp's Amazing Grace and Breezy Bee are the two entrants in this field with fewer than four career Wins.  Finally, note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds is $6.25k; so if you're looking to purchase Gp's Amazing Grace, River Deputy, or Tic Toc Toccet, you'll have to pony up an additional $1.25k.

Undivided took the Show at this class level two weeks ago on Halloween.  Icy Dawn showed good early speed against classier competition last time out.

Breezy Bee, trained by Karl Broberg, is getting off the lawn; that may help, as Breezy Bee has run well on dirt tracks in the past.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/N2MY - Eight and a Third Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Popularity (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Dont Tell Noobody (ML 6-1)

# 6 Vangilder (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Lamartine (Brz) (ML 5-2)

# 3 Westfest (ML 10-1)

# 5 Brave Nation (ML 6-1)

# 7 Chris and Dave (ML 9-2)

An Optional Claimer, where as long as a runner has not won two races at a mile or over since August 14, 2020, they can compete tag free.  There's only one entrant in this field entered for the $40k sales price: Chris and Dave; which is rather puzzling, since, not only has Chris and Dave not won two races at a mile or over since August 14, 2020, Chris and Dave has not won ANY races, period, full stop, in that time frame, at any distance.  So there's that.  Also note for posterity's sake that, if Chris and Dave was an Oklahoma bred rather than a Kentucky bred, then he would cost an additional five grand at the claim box.

Popularity looks quickest here, and could lead the field all the way around the track.  Dont Tell Noobody, upset winner of the $175k Oklahoma Classics Cup last time out, would almost certainly win today's event with a repeat of that effort.

Vangilder should benefit from the class drop.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $15k N3L - Five and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 His Giant (ML 9-2)

B’s

# 1 Tavner (ML 3-1)

# 6 Trevor's Call (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Collection (ML 12-1)
# 3 Kipper (ML 10-1)
# 4 Captive Kitten (ML 5-1)
# 5 Runaway Wind (ML 8-1)

# 7 Pretty Special (ML 20-1)

# 10 Bell Ringer (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 Sermon by the Sea (ML 6-1)

Note that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this race is $20k; no if you wish to purchase Tavner, Kipper, or Pretty Special, it will cost you an extra $5k.

His Giant missed by a neck of not qualifying for this contest last time out.  Tavner, trained by Karl Broberg, took the Show at this class level while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite two starts back.

California bred Trevor's Call looks to be rounding into form.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Love Ya Most (ML 15-1)

B's

# 2 Excetera (ML 7-2)

# 7 Tasmin (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Inspeightofme (ML 20-1)

# 3 Battleship Mary (ML 9-2)

# 4 Okie Beckaroo (ML 5-1)
# 5 No Letting Go (ML 6-1)

# 6 I'm Excee (ML 8-1)

# 8 Quiet Surprise (ML 20-1)

# 9 Truly Classic (ML 20-1)

# 11 Saucy Time (ML 20-1)

# 12 Miss Coffeyville (ML 8-1)

Love Ya Most looks best here, presuming that she can carry her turf form onto the main track.  Tasmin took the Place at this class level two starts back (albeit on the turf) and took the Show on the main track (also at this class level) three starts back.

Excetera seems capable of handling the rise in class, as none in this field appear to be super imposing.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 4 with 8 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,12 with 1,4,6 with 1,6,8 with 2,7,10 $40.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 4 with 8 with 10 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 1 with 2,3,5,7 with 8 with 10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 2,3,4,5,7,10 with 10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 1 with 4 with 8 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,11,12 $4.50

Total: $54.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EST / 7:27 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/7/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 9 - The BC Mile - # 15 Order of Australia (Ire) (Final Odds 73.20) - "C" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Distaff - # 10 Monomoy Girl (1.00*) - "B" Selection

Race 11 - The BC Turf - # 3 Tarnawa (Ire) (4.70) - "B" Selection

Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 9 Authentic (4.20) - "B" Selection

As it was on Day 1, so it was on Day 2: the opening leg of the sequence, the contest that I figured to be the most wide open, lived up to its billing; in this case being won by the longest shot on the board.  Speaking of which, congrats to Trainer Aidan O'Brien, who not only picks up his first win in the Breeders' Cup Mile, but who also conditioned the next two finishers in that event, for a Trifecta that paid $4,393.00 for a fifty cent wager.  As for my play: miss one, miss 'em all, it's all the same, as Saturday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  15 / 10 / 3 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $4,556.15 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/7/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Waiting to develop courage is just another form of procrastination. The most successful people take action while they’re afraid." - Anonymous

Remember how I wrote here yesterday to have fun?  That order still stands, as we go into Day 2 of the Breeders' Cup.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Kameko (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 6 Safe Voyage (Ire) (ML 15-1)

# 10 Halladay (ML 12-1)

# 11 Ivar (Brz) (ML 4-1)

# 12 Uni (GB) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Circus Maximus (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 3 Lope Y Fernandez (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 4 Siskin (ML 15-1)

# 5 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Casa Creed (ML 20-1)
# 8 March to the Arch (ML 15-1)

# 13 Factor This (ML 8-1)
# 14 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 15 Order of Australia (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 9 One Master (GB) (ML 12-1)

Kameko looks to be entering this event in fine form, and there should be enough pace in this field for Kameko to chase.  Safe Voyage (Ire) is well suited to the distance, and Safe Voyage could improve with a firmer surface.

Halladay projects to be forwardly placed early; and Halladay could get loose early should any of the other presumed pacesetters falter.  Ivar (Brz) won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile over this course last time out.

Uni (GB) is the defending champ, having defeated the boys in the 2019 running of this contest.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Swiss Skydiver (ML 2-1)

B's

# 4 Horologist (ML 8-1)

# 10 Monomoy Girl (ML 8-5)

C's

# 1 Ce Ce (ML 12-1)

# 2 Harvest Moon (ML 12-1)

# 3 Dunbar Road (ML 12-1)

# 6 Lady Kate (ML 15-1)

# 7 Point of Honor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Valiance (ML 12-1)

# 9 Ollie's Candy (ML 10-1)

The connections of Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver chose to run her here rather than in the Classic; and while I prefer Swiss Skydiver here, this contest doesn't project to be a walk in the park for her, as she has to have to contend with defending champ Monomoy Girl.  Again, I give the edge to Swiss Skydiver; but his one has the potential to be a memorable battle.

So with those two great runners in the field, why am I adding Horologist to my main ticket?  Good question.  It came down to my opinion that Horologist looks to be in top form, coupled with my opinion that Horologist projects to be well positioned to swoop in just in time should the top two contenders in the field run each other into exhaustion.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Magical (Ire) (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Tarnawa (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 9 Channel Maker (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Arklow (ML 5-1)

# 4 Mehdaayih (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 5 Donjah (Ger) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Lord North (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 7 United (ML 8-1)

# 8 Red King (ML 20-1)

# 10 Mogul (GB) (ML 4-1)

Magical (Ire) could move up with a better trip and a firmer surface than that which he endured last time out.  Tarnawa (Ire) is another that could improve competing over a firmer sod.

Channel Maker projects to be the early pacesetter; and Channel Maker tends to run well at this distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Improbable (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Tiz the Law  (ML 3-1)

# 4 Tom's d' Etat (ML 6-1)

# 9 Authentic (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Tacitus (ML 20-1)

# 3 By My Standards (ML 10-1)

# 5 Title Ready (ML 30-1)

# 6 Higher Power (ML 20-1)

# 7 Global Campaign (ML 20-1)

# 10 Maximum Security (ML 7-2)

Improbable enters this even with a three race winning streak; and it appears that a repeat of any of those three outings would be good enough to get the job done today.  Authentic and Tiz the Law were one - two on the first Saturday in September, and both seem capable of handling the older competition in this field.

Tom's d'Etat, the last runner to defeat Improbable, could win with a repeat of his performance in the Stephen Foster two starts back.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 8 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,6,10,11,12 with 4,5,10 with 2,3,9 with 2,4,8,9 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,5,7,8,13,14,15 with 5 with 2 with 8 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,6,7,8,9 with 2 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 8 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 5 with 2 with 1,3,5,6,7,10 $3.00

Total: $105.50

Post Time for Race 9 is 3:15 EST / 12:15 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The BC Juvenile Turf - # 7 Fire At Will (Final Odds 30.20) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - The BC Juvenile Fillies - # 2 Vequist (6.60) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 5 Aunt Pearl (2.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 10 - The BC Juvenile - # 5 Essential Quality (3.70) - "A" Selection

If it's possible to be right when you were wrong, that's how I feel about my assessment of the BC Juvenile Turf (Race 7).  In the preview I wrote that it was "as wide open as any such contest can be;" and I believe that opinion proved to be correct, as evidenced by the victor paying in excess of sixty dollars to Win.  Still, it's not enough to correctly assess the likelihood of there being an upset winner; you have to correctly predict which longshot runner will pull the upset.  I did not; and for that, and other reasons, Friday was a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct All Breeders' Cup Late Pick Four sequence of  7 / 2 / 5 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $3,081.55 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

11/6/20 Keeneland All BC Late Pick Four - Preview

"Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success." - Albert Schweitzer

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series; and it kicks off today, with Future Stars Friday.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.

As to any general handicapping tips: keep in mind that these are the best horses in each of their respective categories.  So no matter which runner(s) you land on in any specific event, you're landing on a good horse.  Conversely, unless you plan on going "ALL" in each leg, you're going to have to eliminate good horses from your tickets.  So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four at Keeneland.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 New Mandate (Ire) (Moring Line 12-1)

B's

# 5 Cadillac (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 6 Mutasaabeq (ML 5-1)

# 9 Battleground (ML 6-1)

# 11 Gretzky the Great (ML 8-1)
# 12 Go Athletico (Fr) (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Sealiway (Fr) (ML 8-1)

# 3 Abarta (ML 12-1)

# 4 Public Sector (GB) (ML 8-1)

# 7 Fire At Will (ML 12-1)
# 8 Outadore (ML 8-1)

# 10 Ebeko (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 13 Devilwala (Ire) (ML 30-1)
# 14 The Lir Jet (Ire) (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Barrister Tom (ML 30-1) and # 16 Harlan Estate (ML 30-1)

This contest strikes me as being as wide open as any such contest can be.  While going "ALL" in a race with over a dozen leaving the gate was never a serious consideration, I did wonder if my bankroll might be better served by cutting back to a Pick Three for this sequence.  But what fun is that?

New Mandate (Ire) enters this event with a nice three race winning streak; and New Mandate seems well positioned to get first run at the leaders.  Cadillac (Ire) projects to be forwardly placed early; and Cadillac is a Group Stakes winner at eight furlongs.  Mutasaabeq proved that a deep closer can win over this turf course, as Mutasaabeq came from well off the pace last time out to win the Grade 2 Bourbon.

Battleground is undefeated with Ryan Moore on his back.  Gretzky the Great won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes for fun at Woodbine last time out.  Go Athletico (Fr) has yet to finish out of the Exacta in five career starts.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Simply Ravishing (ML 5-2)

B's

# 3 Dayoutoftheoffice (ML 5-2)

# 5 Girl Daddy (ML 6-1)

# 7 Princess Noor (ML 9-5)

C's

# 2 Vequist (ML 8-1)

# 4 Thoughtfully (ML 20-1)

# 6 Crazy Beautiful (ML 20-1)

Simply Ravishing, Dayoutoftheoffice, and Princess Noor are all undefeated in three career starts.  I give the edge to Simply Ravishing because Simply Ravishing already has a win over this main track at today's distance.

Girl Daddy, winner of the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs last time out, could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Miss Amulet (Ire) (ML 12-1)

B's

# 4 Plum Ali (ML 4-1)

# 5 Aunt Pearl (Ire) (ML 3-1)

# 8 Mother Earth (Ire) (ML 20-1)

C's

# 1 Oodnadatta (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 3 Alda (ML 12-1)

# 6 Nazuna (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 9 Madone (ML 10-1)

# 10 Campanelle (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 11 Royal Approval (ML 10-1)

# 12 Spanish Loveaffair (ML 15-1)

# 13 Union Gables (ML 20-1)
# 14 Editor At Large (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 15 Invincible Gal (GB) (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 7 Tetragonal (Ire) (ML 20-1) and # 16 Snowfall (Jpn) (ML 20-1)

Miss Amulet (Ire), a Group 2 winner and Group 1 placed in the UK, looks classy enough to handle this field; and Miss Amulet's breeding suggests that she should do just fine with the distance.  Plum Ali, winner of the Grade 2 Miss Grillo last time out, could get first run at the leaders; while Aunt Pearl (Ire) projects to be among the pacesetters.

Mother Earth (Ire) could be the one running best late.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Essential Quality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Jackie's Warrior (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Camp Hope (ML 30-1)
# 2 King Fury (ML 15-1)

# 3 Reinvestment Risk (ML 9-1)

# 4 Likeable (ML 15-1)

# 6 Keepmeinmind (ML 30-1)

# 8 Classier (ML 12-1)

# 9 Sitting On Go (ML 12-1)

# 10 Dreamer's Disease (ML 30-1)
# 11 Next (ML 15-1)
# 12 Hot Rod Charlie (ML 30-1)
# 13 Rombauer (ML 15-1)
# 14 Calibrate (ML 20-1)

Essential Quality won the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity over this main track at today's distance last time out.  Jackie's Warrior enters this event with a perfect four-for-four record for his career, which includes three Graded Stakes wins.  The only question with Jackie's Warrior is how he'll handle going around two turns for the first time; but that's no small question.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,9,11,12 with 1,3,5,7 with 2,4,5,8 with 5,7 $96.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,7,8,10,13,14 with 1 with 2 with 5 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,6 with 2 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 1,3,6,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 $6.00

Total: $113.50

Post Time for Race 7 is 3:10 EST / 12:10 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo