City Chapel, the Victor Trujillo longshot claim that we've been following, competed Friday in Race 6 at Golden Gate Fields. It was City Chapel's second start this month, and his first since picking up his third career victory.
Friday's event was a $12.5k Clm NW2L X; and for those of you who might be wondering what a horse with three career victories is doing in a race for non-winners of two lifetime (NW2L), remember we discussed the "X" factor back in April; for this particular race, X stands for "other than Maiden, Claiming And Starter Races For $10,000 Or Less".
A field of eight went to post Friday, with City Chapel leaving the gate at Final Odds of 18.70. City Chapel ran a pretty even race, being either four or four and a half lengths back at each call, and eventually finishing fourth, four lengths behind the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Romance is Sosa (1.00). The fourth place finish was worth $720 in purse money to City Chapel's connections; which means that, since being claimed last August for $4,000, City Chapel has earned a total of $22,695 in purses for the Trujillo barn.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Friday's race is available here, while those who prefer their charts DRF style may view theirs here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, May 31, 2013
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
A Pair of Workouts
Just a brief note to pass along a pair of links:
Night School, the racing industry's official online fan education program, had "Handicapping the Workouts" as its course topic this past Tuesday (Week 13). A video replay is available online at the previous link, while this link will bring you to the free study materials for the lesson.
Meanwhile, for those who are interested in workouts from the trainer's perspective, this article by Marcus Hersh, posted at DRF.com in April, is an excellent tutorial in understanding just what is going on at the track during the seeming chaos that is the morning workout session. While the article uses the Kentucky Derby as its backdrop, the information contained therein is applicable year-round. Well worth the read.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Night School, the racing industry's official online fan education program, had "Handicapping the Workouts" as its course topic this past Tuesday (Week 13). A video replay is available online at the previous link, while this link will bring you to the free study materials for the lesson.
Meanwhile, for those who are interested in workouts from the trainer's perspective, this article by Marcus Hersh, posted at DRF.com in April, is an excellent tutorial in understanding just what is going on at the track during the seeming chaos that is the morning workout session. While the article uses the Kentucky Derby as its backdrop, the information contained therein is applicable year-round. Well worth the read.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, May 27, 2013
5/27/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results
Once again the Good Lord was with us; and by the Grace of the Almighty, we came out ahead.
Race 7 - The Sands Point Stakes saw # 2 Discreet Marq (Final Odds 2.90) set leisurely fractions of 25.57 / 49.84 / 1:13.46 while wiring the field to an easy victory. Hindsight being its usual twenty/twenty, I should have just made her my single in this one. By the way, that's another reason why handicapping reminds me so much of chess; no matter how well you did, you always could have done better. There will always be room for improvement.
Race 8 - The Ogden Phipps Handicap witnessed a much quicker early pace, with # 1 Joyful Victory (1.05) setting early fractions of 22.82 and 45.41 before relinquishing the lead and fading to a fifth place finish. # 3 Authenticity (7.30) took over the lead from Joyful Victory, but she could only watch as # 2 Tiz Miz Sue (4.40) went on by to win by half a length.
Race 9 - The Acorn featured a dominating performance by # 5 Midnight Lucky (1.10), who recovered from a bad start to win comfortably by over six lengths. # 1 Kauai Katie (1.70), who also stumbled at the start, would finish third.
So going into Race 10 - The Met Mile - we were alive to three horses: # 1 Cross Traffic (2.90); # 6 Flat Out (2.50); and # 7 Sahara Sky (4.80). As it turned out, those three would form the Trifecta, as Shara Sky just got her nose in front of Cross Traffic at the wire, with Flat Out taking the Show three and half lengths back.
For the record, the Will Pays showed that the fifty cent Pick Four would have been worth $124.87 had Flat Out won, while a Cross Traffic victory would have paid $142.00. So Sahara Sky crossing the wire first gave us the optimum result, as the winning Pick Four combination of 2 / 2 / 5 / 7 paid $202.50, netting us a $152.50 profit. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Sands Point Stakes saw # 2 Discreet Marq (Final Odds 2.90) set leisurely fractions of 25.57 / 49.84 / 1:13.46 while wiring the field to an easy victory. Hindsight being its usual twenty/twenty, I should have just made her my single in this one. By the way, that's another reason why handicapping reminds me so much of chess; no matter how well you did, you always could have done better. There will always be room for improvement.
Race 8 - The Ogden Phipps Handicap witnessed a much quicker early pace, with # 1 Joyful Victory (1.05) setting early fractions of 22.82 and 45.41 before relinquishing the lead and fading to a fifth place finish. # 3 Authenticity (7.30) took over the lead from Joyful Victory, but she could only watch as # 2 Tiz Miz Sue (4.40) went on by to win by half a length.
Race 9 - The Acorn featured a dominating performance by # 5 Midnight Lucky (1.10), who recovered from a bad start to win comfortably by over six lengths. # 1 Kauai Katie (1.70), who also stumbled at the start, would finish third.
So going into Race 10 - The Met Mile - we were alive to three horses: # 1 Cross Traffic (2.90); # 6 Flat Out (2.50); and # 7 Sahara Sky (4.80). As it turned out, those three would form the Trifecta, as Shara Sky just got her nose in front of Cross Traffic at the wire, with Flat Out taking the Show three and half lengths back.
For the record, the Will Pays showed that the fifty cent Pick Four would have been worth $124.87 had Flat Out won, while a Cross Traffic victory would have paid $142.00. So Sahara Sky crossing the wire first gave us the optimum result, as the winning Pick Four combination of 2 / 2 / 5 / 7 paid $202.50, netting us a $152.50 profit. I hope you all had it with me.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/27/13 Belmont Park All Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
"I have never been able to think of the day as one of mourning; I have never quite been able to feel that half-masted flags were appropriate on Decoration Day. I have rather felt that the flag should be at the peak, because those whose dying we commemorate rejoiced in seeing it where their valor placed it. We honor them in a joyous, thankful, triumphant commemoration of what they did." - Benjamin Harrison
And so we in the United States honor those who have died for their country, as we celebrate the freedoms for which they gave their lives.
It's shaping up to be a beautiful day at Belmont Park Monday, with a fast track and a firm turf. There'll be three Pick Fours on the day; I'll be focusing on the one in the middle, comprised of all Graded Stakes events.
RACE 7 - THE SANDS POINT (Grade 2)
This one's on grass; the Inner Turf Course, to be exact. Generally speaking, pace isn't as important on grass as it is on dirt; well, not usually. But the Morning Line favorite, # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 5-2) has such an early speed advantage over the rest of the field, that she could easily steal this one on the front end.
On the flip side, Discreet Marq has never competed in, let alone won, a Graded Stakes. Not that this is an especially classy field; but the jump from a listed stakes to a Grade 2 is significant.
So the question was whether or not to single Discreet Marq in my multi-race picks, or to hedge a bit and include # 5 Unbelievable Dream (ML 7-2), winner of the Grade 3 Appalachia Stakes her last time out, in the mix. As an added data point, Unbelievable Dream will have Joel Rosario on her back today.
Ultimately, I decided to use both horses on all my Pick Four Tickets.
RACE 8 - THE ODGEN PHIPPS HANDICAP (Grade 1)
# 1 Joyful Victory (ML 7-5) sure looks like a standout in this field, having taken the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita her last time out, and earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. But as everyone who watched Dreaming of Julia finish more than six lengths back in the Kentucky Oaks knows, standouts don't always win.
# 5 Disposablepleasure (ML 6-1), has been the Post Time favorite five times in her thirteen career starts. Disposablepleasure has won four of those five races; failing only in her second career start, when she was still a maiden. Disposablepleasure has won none of her other eight career starts; the eight where she wasn’t the Post Time favorite.
There’s something good to be said about a horse that can be counted on to win when it is perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
There’s something not so good to be said about a horse that does not overcome obstacles to win when it is not perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
I feel that I should comment on some of the interesting horse swapping going on among the jockeys in the Ogden Phipps:
Rosie Napravnik has ridden # 6 Believe You Can (ML 4-1) the last eight times the four year old filly has competed. But today Rosie jumps off Believe You Can to ride the other Larry Jones entry, Joyful Victory, whom she rode to a joyful victory in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes @ Santa Anita last month.
Meanwhile, Trainer Todd Pletcher also has two entries in the Ogden Phipps: # 3 Authenticity (ML 3-1) and the previously discussed Disposablepleasure. As you would expect of Todd Pletcher stakes-quality horses, both have been ridden to victory in the past by John Velazquez; but Johnny V won’t be riding either of them today, opting instead to ride Believe You Can.
The mount for Authenticity will go to Mike Smith, who is in town to ride Trainer Bob Baffert’s Fed Biz in Race 10 - The Met Mile (though Smith won’t be riding the Baffert entry Midnight Lucky in Race 9 - The Acorn; as that mount goes to Napravnik; with Midnight Lucky’s usual jockey, Rafael Bejarano, opting to stay in California).
RACE 9 - THE ACORN (Grade 1)
# 1 Kauai Katie (ML 1-1) has only one loss in her career. Perhaps not so coincidentally, that one loss came in her only prior attempt in a Grade 1 contest. However, this is a much softer field than the one she faced that day, as none of the six entrants competing in today's event has ever finished in the money, let alone won, a Grade 1 stakes. Bottom line: if Kauai Katie runs to form, she wins.
# 5 Midnight Lucky (ML 7-5) is the only other entrant in this field to have ever earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. Midnight Lucky obviously wanted no part of the nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks, and should appreciate the turn back in distance. As referenced above, Midnight Lucky will be competing for the first time in her career without Rafael Bejarano on her back, as Rosie Napravnik will be holding the reins today.
RACE 10 - THE METROPOLITAN HANDICAP (Grade 1)
This one looks formful enough that I'm tempted to just go with the top two Morning Line selections: # 6 Flat Out (ML 5-2) and # 1 Cross Traffic (ML 3-1), the two horses who formed the Exacta in last month’s Grade 3 Westchester Stakes.
But I'm going to err a bit on the side of caution, and toss in a few others on a secondary ticket. After all, if the Westchester took too much out of both Flat Out and Cross Traffic, then it’s possible that, say, # 3 Mark Valeski (ML 5-1), winner of last year’s Peter Pan Stakes over this track, could cross the wire first.
I also like the Trifecta from the Grade 1 Carter Handicap (# 5 Swagger Jack (ML 12-1); # 7 Sahara Sky (ML 6-1); and # 2 Discreet Dancer (ML 6-1)); interesting that the winner of the Carter is the one with the highest Morning Line odds of the trio.
And what to do with #9 Fed Biz (ML 15-1)? Why would Baffert ship this horse all the way from SoCal? And why would Mike Smith come all this way as well just to ride him (because, remember from above, Smith won't be riding the Baffert trained Midnight Lucky in the Acorn).
If Flat Out and Cross Traffic run to form, they leave the rest of this bunch behind. But if those two bounce from their efforts in the Westchester, then this could become a chaos race.
So with all that, I'll be putting in the following fifty cent Pick Four tickets:
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: ALL
RACE 9: 1, 5
RACE 10: 1, 6, 7
COST: $36.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1, 2, 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 2, 3, 5, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1, 6
COST: $2.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
And so we in the United States honor those who have died for their country, as we celebrate the freedoms for which they gave their lives.
It's shaping up to be a beautiful day at Belmont Park Monday, with a fast track and a firm turf. There'll be three Pick Fours on the day; I'll be focusing on the one in the middle, comprised of all Graded Stakes events.
RACE 7 - THE SANDS POINT (Grade 2)
This one's on grass; the Inner Turf Course, to be exact. Generally speaking, pace isn't as important on grass as it is on dirt; well, not usually. But the Morning Line favorite, # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 5-2) has such an early speed advantage over the rest of the field, that she could easily steal this one on the front end.
On the flip side, Discreet Marq has never competed in, let alone won, a Graded Stakes. Not that this is an especially classy field; but the jump from a listed stakes to a Grade 2 is significant.
So the question was whether or not to single Discreet Marq in my multi-race picks, or to hedge a bit and include # 5 Unbelievable Dream (ML 7-2), winner of the Grade 3 Appalachia Stakes her last time out, in the mix. As an added data point, Unbelievable Dream will have Joel Rosario on her back today.
Ultimately, I decided to use both horses on all my Pick Four Tickets.
RACE 8 - THE ODGEN PHIPPS HANDICAP (Grade 1)
# 1 Joyful Victory (ML 7-5) sure looks like a standout in this field, having taken the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita her last time out, and earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. But as everyone who watched Dreaming of Julia finish more than six lengths back in the Kentucky Oaks knows, standouts don't always win.
# 5 Disposablepleasure (ML 6-1), has been the Post Time favorite five times in her thirteen career starts. Disposablepleasure has won four of those five races; failing only in her second career start, when she was still a maiden. Disposablepleasure has won none of her other eight career starts; the eight where she wasn’t the Post Time favorite.
There’s something good to be said about a horse that can be counted on to win when it is perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
There’s something not so good to be said about a horse that does not overcome obstacles to win when it is not perceived by the public as being the best in the field.
I feel that I should comment on some of the interesting horse swapping going on among the jockeys in the Ogden Phipps:
Rosie Napravnik has ridden # 6 Believe You Can (ML 4-1) the last eight times the four year old filly has competed. But today Rosie jumps off Believe You Can to ride the other Larry Jones entry, Joyful Victory, whom she rode to a joyful victory in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita Stakes @ Santa Anita last month.
Meanwhile, Trainer Todd Pletcher also has two entries in the Ogden Phipps: # 3 Authenticity (ML 3-1) and the previously discussed Disposablepleasure. As you would expect of Todd Pletcher stakes-quality horses, both have been ridden to victory in the past by John Velazquez; but Johnny V won’t be riding either of them today, opting instead to ride Believe You Can.
The mount for Authenticity will go to Mike Smith, who is in town to ride Trainer Bob Baffert’s Fed Biz in Race 10 - The Met Mile (though Smith won’t be riding the Baffert entry Midnight Lucky in Race 9 - The Acorn; as that mount goes to Napravnik; with Midnight Lucky’s usual jockey, Rafael Bejarano, opting to stay in California).
RACE 9 - THE ACORN (Grade 1)
# 1 Kauai Katie (ML 1-1) has only one loss in her career. Perhaps not so coincidentally, that one loss came in her only prior attempt in a Grade 1 contest. However, this is a much softer field than the one she faced that day, as none of the six entrants competing in today's event has ever finished in the money, let alone won, a Grade 1 stakes. Bottom line: if Kauai Katie runs to form, she wins.
# 5 Midnight Lucky (ML 7-5) is the only other entrant in this field to have ever earned a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. Midnight Lucky obviously wanted no part of the nine furlongs of the Kentucky Oaks, and should appreciate the turn back in distance. As referenced above, Midnight Lucky will be competing for the first time in her career without Rafael Bejarano on her back, as Rosie Napravnik will be holding the reins today.
RACE 10 - THE METROPOLITAN HANDICAP (Grade 1)
This one looks formful enough that I'm tempted to just go with the top two Morning Line selections: # 6 Flat Out (ML 5-2) and # 1 Cross Traffic (ML 3-1), the two horses who formed the Exacta in last month’s Grade 3 Westchester Stakes.
But I'm going to err a bit on the side of caution, and toss in a few others on a secondary ticket. After all, if the Westchester took too much out of both Flat Out and Cross Traffic, then it’s possible that, say, # 3 Mark Valeski (ML 5-1), winner of last year’s Peter Pan Stakes over this track, could cross the wire first.
I also like the Trifecta from the Grade 1 Carter Handicap (# 5 Swagger Jack (ML 12-1); # 7 Sahara Sky (ML 6-1); and # 2 Discreet Dancer (ML 6-1)); interesting that the winner of the Carter is the one with the highest Morning Line odds of the trio.
And what to do with #9 Fed Biz (ML 15-1)? Why would Baffert ship this horse all the way from SoCal? And why would Mike Smith come all this way as well just to ride him (because, remember from above, Smith won't be riding the Baffert trained Midnight Lucky in the Acorn).
If Flat Out and Cross Traffic run to form, they leave the rest of this bunch behind. But if those two bounce from their efforts in the Westchester, then this could become a chaos race.
So with all that, I'll be putting in the following fifty cent Pick Four tickets:
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: ALL
RACE 9: 1, 5
RACE 10: 1, 6, 7
COST: $36.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1, 2, 3
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 2, 3, 5, 9
COST: $12.00
RACE 7: 2, 5
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 1
RACE 10: 1, 6
COST: $2.00
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 25, 2013
CHRB Allocates SoCal Racing Dates for 2014 & 2015
Since I blogged about the imminent closing of Hollywood Park, it seemed only proper to pass along the news of how the thoroughbred calendar will be filled over the next two years in Southern California. Quoting from this article at DRF.com by Brad Free:
The CHRB eventually settled on these 2014 dates: Santa Anita, Dec. 26, 2013 through July 6; Del Mar, July 16 through Sept. 3; Fairplex Park, Sept. 4-23; Santa Anita, Sept. 25 through Nov. 2; and Del Mar, Nov. 5 through Dec. 7.
The 2015 dates: Santa Anita, Dec. 26, 2014 through July 5; Del Mar, July 15 through Sept. 7; Fairplex, Sept. 10- 25; Santa Anita, Sept. 26 through Oct. 25; and Del Mar, Oct. 28 through Dec. 6. The shortened Fairplex meet hinges on 2015 Breeders’ Cup location. Fairplex could lose the lucrative closing weekend of the Los Angeles County Fair meet.
The CHRB dates allocation was unanimous by the board, with conditions that will be addressed next week.
The full story contains some key information regarding such issues as: the stabling of horses in SoCal after Hollywood Park is no more; the conditions that need to be addressed before the dates above become finalized; and Los Alamitos' desire to play a larger role in the thoroughbred scene. So if you have any interest in Southern California thoroughbred racing, I would advise checking out the article in full.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, May 19, 2013
The Preakness Stakes - Wrap Up
"Hey, aren't you the guy who wrote that the Preakness shapes up to be won by someone running late?"
Yes; yes I am.
"So what happened?"
Well, to understand what happened in the Preakness, it helps to first take another look at the chart of the Kentucky Derby.
If you scroll down to the Past Performance Running Line Preview section of that chart, you'll see the story of a pace collapse that allowed closers to garner all the top spots as the field crossed the wire. You could call that the “race shape”; it’s how the pace of the race played a role in the final outcome.
Now, suppose you wanted to know which horse in the Derby field did the best job of battling the “race shape”; that is, suppose you wanted to know which horse among those that were closest to the pace meltdown had the best finish. Well, if you look at that PP Running Line Preview section and scan down the 3/4 mile column, you’ll see where each horse was at that point in the race (i.e., the point of the Derby six furlongs in, with four furlongs of the race still to be run) in the order of their final position. Doing so gives you:
17
15
18
6
16
2
14
11
8
9
13
You can see that the Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, was 17th at the 3/4 mile mark; while the Place horse in the Derby, Golden Soul, was 15th at that point; and so on down the line. Notice that of the Top Eleven finishers in the Kentucky Derby, only one, the horse that finished sixth, was in the Top Five when the race had gone six furlongs. That is, only one horse who was part of the early blistering pace, a horse who was in second place at the 3/4 mile mark, was able to hang on to finish in one of the Top Eleven positions, crossing the wire sixth.
And that horse was Oxbow.
Now, was that enough to steer a handicapper to bet Oxbow to Win today? Well, speaking just for this handicapper, the answer (much to my regret) is no. The reason why is because, while Oxbow finished best among those who were a part of the Derby pace meltdown, he was still well back in sixth. If the pace was to meltdown again in the Preakness, there was no reason to believe that Oxbow would improve upon his Derby results.
And a look at the field suggested that the pace today would indeed be fast and contested, and that it would therefore once again meltdown.
But it wasn't; and it didn't.
Gary Stevens grabbed the early lead aboard Oxbow, and no one went after him to contest that lead.
Now, while I don't have access to what the riders in the Preakness were thinking, I will say that it’s fair to presume that the other jockeys’ judgement played a key role in each of them choosing not to go after Oxbow early. For example, Kevin Krigger, aboard Goldencents, may have still been feeling the burn from his speed duel in the Derby with Palace Malice, and decided that this time he would let someone else go after the leader early. Titletown Five, another horse who is usually found on the lead early, was ridden today by Julien Leparoux, a jockey who prefers to come off the pace. Martin Garcia, riding Governor Charlie, may not have had enough horse to take on Oxbow in the early going.
And so there was Oxbow, a very good horse loose on the lead, setting very comfortable fractions of 23.94 for the first quarter, 48.60 for the half, and 1:13.26 for six furlongs. Compare that to the Derby fractions of 22.57 / 45.33 / 1:09.80 and you can see that Oxbow was practically cantering around the track relative to what the early leaders in the Derby were doing. Heck, you can even continue this comparison out to the one mile mark; for while the first mile of the Derby took 1:36.16 to complete, Oxbow ran the first eight furlongs of the Preakness nearly two seconds slower, in 1:38.14.
And that was the race.
By getting a clear lead with an easy pace, Jockey Gary Stevens had Oxbow with a three length lead at the top of the stretch, with virtually all of Oxbow's energy still in reserve. So, basically, Stevens turned the mile and three sixteenths race into a sprint of less than two furlongs, where his horse had a three length head start over the rest of the field. At that point, the race was no contest.
So once again, pace made the race.
But not entirely.
Let's take another look at the chart of the Preakness; and let's do with it the same thing we did with the Derby chart; that is, let's look at the PP Running Line Preview section of the Preakness chart and scan down it to see where each horse was at a specific point in the race, in the order of each horse's final position. Only this time, let's do it for the 1/2 mile column rather than the 3/4 column (not that it makes that big of a difference, but it will help to more clearly illustrate a point). Doing so gives you:
1
4
9
5
2
6
8
7
3
Just to be sure everyone is still following along, the above shows that the eventual winner of the Preakness, Oxbow, was in first place at the 1/2 mile call; that is, after the first half mile of the Preakness had been run, Oxbow was in first place. The eventual second place finisher in the Preakness, Itsmyluckyday, was in fourth place at that point in the race; and so on down the line.
So what does the above line show? Well, even though Oxbow was setting nice, comfortable fractions up front, those who were closest to him at the 1/2 mile mark (that is, the horses who were second and third at that point) weren't able to keep up. Had those two horses (Goldencents and Titletown Five, respectively) been able to keep pace with Oxbow (and, with those nice soft fractions, there's no good reason why they shouldn't) they would have continued to be second and third around the track, with the race resembling a merry-go-round, where all the horses go around and around, never passing each other.
But that's not what happened.
Goldencents would finish fifth, while Titletown Five would finish last. Itsmyluckyday, fourth at the 1/2 mile mark, was able to finish second (making up nearly four lengths on the leader Oxbow during that final part of the race) while Mylute moved up from ninth to grab the Show, going from nine and a quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile point to finish just two and a quarter lengths behind the winner.
For the record, Itsmyluckyday and Mylute were the only horses in the field to be closer to Oxbow at the finish than they were at the 1/2 mile mark (in terms of number of lengths behind).
Orb, who finished fourth, just did not have a good day; for while he was able to move up from fifth place to fourth in the final stages of the race, Orb actually lost ground on the leader during that span, going from five and three quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile mark to nine lengths behind Oxbow at the finish.
So while pace did indeed make the race, there was more than that to Oxbow's victory; as the signs were there in the Derby that this was a horse that stood to move forward. Congrats to all who had him; and a special salute to our good buddy Jeff G, who nailed the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday Exacta, and the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday / Mylute Trifecta by correctly predicting that Orb would bounce off his performance in the Derby, and underperform in the Preakness.
Onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Yes; yes I am.
"So what happened?"
Well, to understand what happened in the Preakness, it helps to first take another look at the chart of the Kentucky Derby.
If you scroll down to the Past Performance Running Line Preview section of that chart, you'll see the story of a pace collapse that allowed closers to garner all the top spots as the field crossed the wire. You could call that the “race shape”; it’s how the pace of the race played a role in the final outcome.
Now, suppose you wanted to know which horse in the Derby field did the best job of battling the “race shape”; that is, suppose you wanted to know which horse among those that were closest to the pace meltdown had the best finish. Well, if you look at that PP Running Line Preview section and scan down the 3/4 mile column, you’ll see where each horse was at that point in the race (i.e., the point of the Derby six furlongs in, with four furlongs of the race still to be run) in the order of their final position. Doing so gives you:
17
15
18
6
16
2
14
11
8
9
13
You can see that the Kentucky Derby winner, Orb, was 17th at the 3/4 mile mark; while the Place horse in the Derby, Golden Soul, was 15th at that point; and so on down the line. Notice that of the Top Eleven finishers in the Kentucky Derby, only one, the horse that finished sixth, was in the Top Five when the race had gone six furlongs. That is, only one horse who was part of the early blistering pace, a horse who was in second place at the 3/4 mile mark, was able to hang on to finish in one of the Top Eleven positions, crossing the wire sixth.
And that horse was Oxbow.
Now, was that enough to steer a handicapper to bet Oxbow to Win today? Well, speaking just for this handicapper, the answer (much to my regret) is no. The reason why is because, while Oxbow finished best among those who were a part of the Derby pace meltdown, he was still well back in sixth. If the pace was to meltdown again in the Preakness, there was no reason to believe that Oxbow would improve upon his Derby results.
And a look at the field suggested that the pace today would indeed be fast and contested, and that it would therefore once again meltdown.
But it wasn't; and it didn't.
Gary Stevens grabbed the early lead aboard Oxbow, and no one went after him to contest that lead.
Now, while I don't have access to what the riders in the Preakness were thinking, I will say that it’s fair to presume that the other jockeys’ judgement played a key role in each of them choosing not to go after Oxbow early. For example, Kevin Krigger, aboard Goldencents, may have still been feeling the burn from his speed duel in the Derby with Palace Malice, and decided that this time he would let someone else go after the leader early. Titletown Five, another horse who is usually found on the lead early, was ridden today by Julien Leparoux, a jockey who prefers to come off the pace. Martin Garcia, riding Governor Charlie, may not have had enough horse to take on Oxbow in the early going.
And so there was Oxbow, a very good horse loose on the lead, setting very comfortable fractions of 23.94 for the first quarter, 48.60 for the half, and 1:13.26 for six furlongs. Compare that to the Derby fractions of 22.57 / 45.33 / 1:09.80 and you can see that Oxbow was practically cantering around the track relative to what the early leaders in the Derby were doing. Heck, you can even continue this comparison out to the one mile mark; for while the first mile of the Derby took 1:36.16 to complete, Oxbow ran the first eight furlongs of the Preakness nearly two seconds slower, in 1:38.14.
And that was the race.
By getting a clear lead with an easy pace, Jockey Gary Stevens had Oxbow with a three length lead at the top of the stretch, with virtually all of Oxbow's energy still in reserve. So, basically, Stevens turned the mile and three sixteenths race into a sprint of less than two furlongs, where his horse had a three length head start over the rest of the field. At that point, the race was no contest.
So once again, pace made the race.
But not entirely.
Let's take another look at the chart of the Preakness; and let's do with it the same thing we did with the Derby chart; that is, let's look at the PP Running Line Preview section of the Preakness chart and scan down it to see where each horse was at a specific point in the race, in the order of each horse's final position. Only this time, let's do it for the 1/2 mile column rather than the 3/4 column (not that it makes that big of a difference, but it will help to more clearly illustrate a point). Doing so gives you:
1
4
9
5
2
6
8
7
3
Just to be sure everyone is still following along, the above shows that the eventual winner of the Preakness, Oxbow, was in first place at the 1/2 mile call; that is, after the first half mile of the Preakness had been run, Oxbow was in first place. The eventual second place finisher in the Preakness, Itsmyluckyday, was in fourth place at that point in the race; and so on down the line.
So what does the above line show? Well, even though Oxbow was setting nice, comfortable fractions up front, those who were closest to him at the 1/2 mile mark (that is, the horses who were second and third at that point) weren't able to keep up. Had those two horses (Goldencents and Titletown Five, respectively) been able to keep pace with Oxbow (and, with those nice soft fractions, there's no good reason why they shouldn't) they would have continued to be second and third around the track, with the race resembling a merry-go-round, where all the horses go around and around, never passing each other.
But that's not what happened.
Goldencents would finish fifth, while Titletown Five would finish last. Itsmyluckyday, fourth at the 1/2 mile mark, was able to finish second (making up nearly four lengths on the leader Oxbow during that final part of the race) while Mylute moved up from ninth to grab the Show, going from nine and a quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile point to finish just two and a quarter lengths behind the winner.
For the record, Itsmyluckyday and Mylute were the only horses in the field to be closer to Oxbow at the finish than they were at the 1/2 mile mark (in terms of number of lengths behind).
Orb, who finished fourth, just did not have a good day; for while he was able to move up from fifth place to fourth in the final stages of the race, Orb actually lost ground on the leader during that span, going from five and three quarter lengths back at the 1/2 mile mark to nine lengths behind Oxbow at the finish.
So while pace did indeed make the race, there was more than that to Oxbow's victory; as the signs were there in the Derby that this was a horse that stood to move forward. Congrats to all who had him; and a special salute to our good buddy Jeff G, who nailed the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday Exacta, and the Oxbow / Itsmyluckyday / Mylute Trifecta by correctly predicting that Orb would bounce off his performance in the Derby, and underperform in the Preakness.
Onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/18/13 Pimlico Late Pick Four - Results
Win a pair; lose a pair.
In a portend of things to come, # 3 Pianist (Final Odds 6.70) got the early lead in Race 9 - The Gallorette Handicap and never let it go, leading the field around the track and winning by close to three lengths.
Race 10 - The Maryland Sprint Handicap proved very formful, with our selections running one-two; as Post Time Favorite # 10 Sage Valley (2.30) crossed a wire a little more than two lengths in front of # 4 Hardened Wildcat (2.40), forming an Exacta that paid $10.80 for a buck.
And that was the end of our winners on this ticket.
Race 11 - The Dixie saw Jockey Gary Stevens sprint the D Wayne Lukas trained # 10 Skyring (24.20) out to a clear lead early; a lead that he would not relinquish, finishing a half-length in front of # 1 Willcox Inn (5.50) and # 2 Optimizer (3.10).
For those who dig instant replay, Race 12 - The Preakness saw Jockey Gary Stevens sprint the D Wayne Lukas trained # 6 Oxbow (15.40) to a clear lead early; a lead that he would not relinquish, finishing a length and three quarters ahead of # 9 Itsmyluckyday (8.50); while our single, Post Time Favorite Orb (0.70) finished a well-beaten fourth, nine lengths behind the winner. Incidentally, those who had the Senior Citizens Double of Skyring / Oxbow were rewarded with a payout of $278.70 for every dollar wagered.
Meanwhile, the Late Pick Four of 3 / 10 / 10 / 6 paid $4883.05 for a fifty cent bet. God Bless all those who had it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
In a portend of things to come, # 3 Pianist (Final Odds 6.70) got the early lead in Race 9 - The Gallorette Handicap and never let it go, leading the field around the track and winning by close to three lengths.
Race 10 - The Maryland Sprint Handicap proved very formful, with our selections running one-two; as Post Time Favorite # 10 Sage Valley (2.30) crossed a wire a little more than two lengths in front of # 4 Hardened Wildcat (2.40), forming an Exacta that paid $10.80 for a buck.
And that was the end of our winners on this ticket.
Race 11 - The Dixie saw Jockey Gary Stevens sprint the D Wayne Lukas trained # 10 Skyring (24.20) out to a clear lead early; a lead that he would not relinquish, finishing a half-length in front of # 1 Willcox Inn (5.50) and # 2 Optimizer (3.10).
For those who dig instant replay, Race 12 - The Preakness saw Jockey Gary Stevens sprint the D Wayne Lukas trained # 6 Oxbow (15.40) to a clear lead early; a lead that he would not relinquish, finishing a length and three quarters ahead of # 9 Itsmyluckyday (8.50); while our single, Post Time Favorite Orb (0.70) finished a well-beaten fourth, nine lengths behind the winner. Incidentally, those who had the Senior Citizens Double of Skyring / Oxbow were rewarded with a payout of $278.70 for every dollar wagered.
Meanwhile, the Late Pick Four of 3 / 10 / 10 / 6 paid $4883.05 for a fifty cent bet. God Bless all those who had it.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 18, 2013
5/18/13 Pimlico Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Preakness Day at Pimlico, as the racing world's eyes turn towards Baltimore to see if Orb can capture the second leg of thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown (spoiler alert: I think he will). Following are some thoughts regarding the Late Pick Four:
RACE 9 - The Gallorette Handicap
# 4 Samitar (GB) (Morning Line 5-2) a multiple Grade 1 Stakes winner, gets some class relief today. # 3 Pianist (ML 4-1) and # 5 Old Tune (BRZ) (ML 5-1) shape up as the early front runners; if either one falters, the other could win this in a cake walk. # 6 Embarr (ML 8-1) comes off a win in the Dahlia Stakes her last time out; a win which made her a perfect three-for-three over this turf course. But, all things considered, this one strikes me as a potential chaos race.
RACE 10 - The Maryland Sprint Handicap
# 10 Sage Valley (ML 5-2) has posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his races, culminating in a career best (and career best in this field) 105 his last time out. # 4 Hardened Wildcat (ML 4-1) is the only other entrant in this field that has posted a triple-digit beyer in any of his last three outings. Hardened Wildcat also has a late running style that could serve him well if things get too wild up front.
RACE 11 - The Dixie
# 9 Swift Warrior (ML 4-1) has back-to-back Graded Stakes victories and just misses by less than a length of having three in a row coming into this one. # 1 Willcox Inn (ML 6-1) just missed in the Grade 2 Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap his last time out. # 2 Optimized (ML 7-2) is a multi-Graded Stakes winner that will be guided by the hot hand of Jockey Joel Rosario.
RACE 12 - The Preakness
Try as I might, I could not make a serious case to go against # 1 Orb (ML 1-1). While it probably won't be as chaotic as it was in the Derby, the pace in this one should be hot, especially with new shooters # 3 Titletown Five (ML 30-1) and # 8 Governor Charlie (ML 12-1) joining the mix. This one shapes up to be won by someone running late, and of all the late runners in this field, Orb looks to be the unquestionable best.
So with all that, I'll be putting in the following Late Pick Four Ticket at Pimlico:
RACE 9 - ALL
RACE 10 - 4, 10
RACE 11 - 1, 2, 9
RACE 12 - 1
Play it for half a buck, and the whole thing will cost you $24.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - The Gallorette Handicap
# 4 Samitar (GB) (Morning Line 5-2) a multiple Grade 1 Stakes winner, gets some class relief today. # 3 Pianist (ML 4-1) and # 5 Old Tune (BRZ) (ML 5-1) shape up as the early front runners; if either one falters, the other could win this in a cake walk. # 6 Embarr (ML 8-1) comes off a win in the Dahlia Stakes her last time out; a win which made her a perfect three-for-three over this turf course. But, all things considered, this one strikes me as a potential chaos race.
RACE 10 - The Maryland Sprint Handicap
# 10 Sage Valley (ML 5-2) has posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his races, culminating in a career best (and career best in this field) 105 his last time out. # 4 Hardened Wildcat (ML 4-1) is the only other entrant in this field that has posted a triple-digit beyer in any of his last three outings. Hardened Wildcat also has a late running style that could serve him well if things get too wild up front.
RACE 11 - The Dixie
# 9 Swift Warrior (ML 4-1) has back-to-back Graded Stakes victories and just misses by less than a length of having three in a row coming into this one. # 1 Willcox Inn (ML 6-1) just missed in the Grade 2 Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap his last time out. # 2 Optimized (ML 7-2) is a multi-Graded Stakes winner that will be guided by the hot hand of Jockey Joel Rosario.
RACE 12 - The Preakness
Try as I might, I could not make a serious case to go against # 1 Orb (ML 1-1). While it probably won't be as chaotic as it was in the Derby, the pace in this one should be hot, especially with new shooters # 3 Titletown Five (ML 30-1) and # 8 Governor Charlie (ML 12-1) joining the mix. This one shapes up to be won by someone running late, and of all the late runners in this field, Orb looks to be the unquestionable best.
So with all that, I'll be putting in the following Late Pick Four Ticket at Pimlico:
RACE 9 - ALL
RACE 10 - 4, 10
RACE 11 - 1, 2, 9
RACE 12 - 1
Play it for half a buck, and the whole thing will cost you $24.00
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, May 11, 2013
5/11/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results
So we had a play in the Late Pick Four at Belmont Park Saturday. But then we didn't; as Declan's Warrior was scratched from the Peter Pan, and I decided to cancel the ticket. Now let's see how we would have done.
RACE 7
# 1 Joe Alan (Final Odds 1.10) breaks his maiden by over four lengths, wiring the field.
RACE 8
# 9 Amberjack (1.45) gives Joel Rosario back-to-back winners.
RACE 9
The reason why I cancelled my Pick Four play after the scratch of Declan's Warrior was because I didn't want to gamble on who the Post Time Favorite might be, and I wasn't comfortable with singling # 1 Freedom Child (3.60) in a Graded Stakes. Well, Freedom Child showed that he was well up to the task against this company, winning for fun by over thirteen lengths. Post Time Favorite # 5 Abraham (2.60) was fourth.
RACE 10
#15 Derby Watch (4.70), one of the MTOs that we covered, wins the finale with ease, leading the field from gate to wire and finishing eleven lengths in front of Post Time Favorite # 2 Scandalo (2.60).
So we didn't play; and if you don't play, you can't win. And what would we have won? Well, the winning sequence of 1 / 9 / 1 / 15 paid $200.75 for a fifty cent wager. So bailing when we did cost us a profit of $164.75.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7
# 1 Joe Alan (Final Odds 1.10) breaks his maiden by over four lengths, wiring the field.
RACE 8
# 9 Amberjack (1.45) gives Joel Rosario back-to-back winners.
RACE 9
The reason why I cancelled my Pick Four play after the scratch of Declan's Warrior was because I didn't want to gamble on who the Post Time Favorite might be, and I wasn't comfortable with singling # 1 Freedom Child (3.60) in a Graded Stakes. Well, Freedom Child showed that he was well up to the task against this company, winning for fun by over thirteen lengths. Post Time Favorite # 5 Abraham (2.60) was fourth.
RACE 10
#15 Derby Watch (4.70), one of the MTOs that we covered, wins the finale with ease, leading the field from gate to wire and finishing eleven lengths in front of Post Time Favorite # 2 Scandalo (2.60).
So we didn't play; and if you don't play, you can't win. And what would we have won? Well, the winning sequence of 1 / 9 / 1 / 15 paid $200.75 for a fifty cent wager. So bailing when we did cost us a profit of $164.75.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
5/11/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview
EDIT / WARNING / BEWARE: Declan's Warrior has been scratched from The Peter Pan. Rather than take my chances with the Post Time Favorite, I've decided to just cancel my play. I've left the original analysis up so we can see how that would have done. - Jimbo
As I type this, the main track at Belmont is sloppy, and everything is being kept off the grass. So let's get to it:
RACE 7
# 1 Joe Alan (Morning Line 7-2) makes his first start for a barn that hits at a 15% clip when running horses first time off a claim. Joel Rosario, who is proving that he can win wherever he goes, gets the mount today, and should insure Joe Alan gets a better trip than he did his last time out.
# 2 Gold Buffalo (ML 8-1) comes from a sire who gets 16% debut winners from his offspring, and is running for a conditioner that hits at a 28% rate when sending them out for the first time. Gold Buffalo also has the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
RACE 8
# 2 Quiet Power (ML 6-5) recorded a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 83 last time out while running for the first time for Trainer Rudy Rodriguez; a repeat of that mark should beat this bunch.
# 6 Mississippi Duel (ML 10-1) broke his maiden at Belmont over a track that was muddy (sealed). Javier Castellano, who was on board for that victory, gets the mount again today.
# 9 Amberjack (ML 7-2) goes for a barn that wins a third of the time when running entrants they've picked up from other trainers. Amberjack's lone win came on a sloppy (sealed) track at today's distance of eight furlongs. The attempt to compete outside the state bred ranks last time out put this colt in over his head; he should have an easier time making the lead today.
RACE 9 - The Peter Pan
# 1 Freedom Child (ML 12-1) could get loose on the lead against this group, especially if he's not held back again at the start. Freedom Child's lone win came at today's distance of nine furlongs.
# 8 Declan's Warrior (ML 4-1) is the only horse in the field with a Graded Stakes win, having taken the Bay Shore at Aqueduct his last time out. Declan's Warrior is just a neck shy of being undefeated. Declan's Warrior has the best last out Beyer in this field, the best career Beyer in this field, and the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in this field. Declan's Warrior is also one of only two horses in this field to have a win over the Belmont main track. The only question here is the distance; but with A. P. Indy (winner of the 1992 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes) as grandsire and Saint Ballado (winner of the 1992 Arlington Classic) as damsire, I think the breeding is there for Declan's War to still be strong at the finish.
RACE 10
# 2 Scandalo (ML 7-5) has been competitive at Maiden Claiming levels a class step above today's competition.
# 5 Moonshine Ridge (ML 6-1) had his best race (and only in the money finish) in his only off-track event; which you would expect from a horse with the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
# 7 Smokey Brown (ML 8-1) is from a sire (Big Brown) that does quite well with debuters. Running him for a tag so far below his purchase price of $120k could be a red flag; but the presence of Junior Alvarado in the saddle suggests that the connections are in this one to win.
# 14 Economic Forecast (ML 2-1); # 15 Derby Watch (ML 7-2); and # 16 Dapper Draper (ML 5-1) are the three Main Track Only entrants. I'll be using them all.
So, with all that, and without getting too fancy, we can just go caveman style with the following Pick Four ticket:
RACE 7: 1, 2
RACE 8: 2, 6, 9
RACE 9: 1, 8
RACE 10: 2, 5, 7, 14, 15, 16
EDIT: With the scratch of Declan Warrior I have cancelled this play.
Play it for fifty cents and the whole thing will cost you $36.00
Post time for Race 7 is 3:13 EDT / 12:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT: OK, Declan's Warrior is scratched. Rather than gamble on the Post Time Favorite, I've decided to just cancel my play. The analysis has been left up just so that we can check later and see how it would have done. - Jimbo
As I type this, the main track at Belmont is sloppy, and everything is being kept off the grass. So let's get to it:
RACE 7
# 1 Joe Alan (Morning Line 7-2) makes his first start for a barn that hits at a 15% clip when running horses first time off a claim. Joel Rosario, who is proving that he can win wherever he goes, gets the mount today, and should insure Joe Alan gets a better trip than he did his last time out.
# 2 Gold Buffalo (ML 8-1) comes from a sire who gets 16% debut winners from his offspring, and is running for a conditioner that hits at a 28% rate when sending them out for the first time. Gold Buffalo also has the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
RACE 8
# 2 Quiet Power (ML 6-5) recorded a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 83 last time out while running for the first time for Trainer Rudy Rodriguez; a repeat of that mark should beat this bunch.
# 6 Mississippi Duel (ML 10-1) broke his maiden at Belmont over a track that was muddy (sealed). Javier Castellano, who was on board for that victory, gets the mount again today.
# 9 Amberjack (ML 7-2) goes for a barn that wins a third of the time when running entrants they've picked up from other trainers. Amberjack's lone win came on a sloppy (sealed) track at today's distance of eight furlongs. The attempt to compete outside the state bred ranks last time out put this colt in over his head; he should have an easier time making the lead today.
RACE 9 - The Peter Pan
# 1 Freedom Child (ML 12-1) could get loose on the lead against this group, especially if he's not held back again at the start. Freedom Child's lone win came at today's distance of nine furlongs.
# 8 Declan's Warrior (ML 4-1) is the only horse in the field with a Graded Stakes win, having taken the Bay Shore at Aqueduct his last time out. Declan's Warrior is just a neck shy of being undefeated. Declan's Warrior has the best last out Beyer in this field, the best career Beyer in this field, and the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in this field. Declan's Warrior is also one of only two horses in this field to have a win over the Belmont main track. The only question here is the distance; but with A. P. Indy (winner of the 1992 Peter Pan and Belmont Stakes) as grandsire and Saint Ballado (winner of the 1992 Arlington Classic) as damsire, I think the breeding is there for Declan's War to still be strong at the finish.
RACE 10
# 2 Scandalo (ML 7-5) has been competitive at Maiden Claiming levels a class step above today's competition.
# 5 Moonshine Ridge (ML 6-1) had his best race (and only in the money finish) in his only off-track event; which you would expect from a horse with the best Wet Tomlinson Rating in the field.
# 7 Smokey Brown (ML 8-1) is from a sire (Big Brown) that does quite well with debuters. Running him for a tag so far below his purchase price of $120k could be a red flag; but the presence of Junior Alvarado in the saddle suggests that the connections are in this one to win.
# 14 Economic Forecast (ML 2-1); # 15 Derby Watch (ML 7-2); and # 16 Dapper Draper (ML 5-1) are the three Main Track Only entrants. I'll be using them all.
So, with all that, and without getting too fancy, we can just go caveman style with the following Pick Four ticket:
RACE 7: 1, 2
RACE 8: 2, 6, 9
RACE 9: 1, 8
RACE 10: 2, 5, 7, 14, 15, 16
EDIT: With the scratch of Declan Warrior I have cancelled this play.
Play it for fifty cents and the whole thing will cost you $36.00
Post time for Race 7 is 3:13 EDT / 12:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
EDIT: OK, Declan's Warrior is scratched. Rather than gamble on the Post Time Favorite, I've decided to just cancel my play. The analysis has been left up just so that we can check later and see how it would have done. - Jimbo
Friday, May 10, 2013
5/9/13 GG R2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following since he was scooped up by Victor Trujillo last Summer for four grand, found his way to the winner's circle once again Thursday.
Running in Race 2 at Golden Gate Fields, City Chapel (Final Odds 4.70) crossed the wire first in front of five opponents in a $6,250 Claiming Race for non-winners of three lifetime (NW3L). This was City Chapel's second victory for the Trujillo barn, and brings his total purse earnings for his connections to $21,975, more than five times his purchase price. Not too shabby indeed for a horse that ran at odds of 29.80 in the $4k NW2L race in which he was claimed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Running in Race 2 at Golden Gate Fields, City Chapel (Final Odds 4.70) crossed the wire first in front of five opponents in a $6,250 Claiming Race for non-winners of three lifetime (NW3L). This was City Chapel's second victory for the Trujillo barn, and brings his total purse earnings for his connections to $21,975, more than five times his purchase price. Not too shabby indeed for a horse that ran at odds of 29.80 in the $4k NW2L race in which he was claimed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Hollywood Park Will Close At End Of Year
Well, we all knew this day was coming. Doesn't make it any easier.
INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Betfair Hollywood Park will close for racing and training at the end of this year, track employees were informed in a letter Thursday.
The letter, written by track president Jack Liebau, confirmed what has been widely expected after track management stated that Hollywood Park would eventually be closed and the property developed for residential and commercial uses.
The 75-year-old track will continue its current spring-summer meeting through July 14 and will conduct its final meeting in the autumn, from Nov. 7 through Dec. 22.
Racing board executive director Kirk Breed said Thursday that he received notice of Hollywood Park’s intentions earlier this week.
“It’s like a great old ship on the ocean, like the Queen Mary, all of a sudden, they junk it,” Breed said. “It’s very sad.”
Full story here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Betfair Hollywood Park will close for racing and training at the end of this year, track employees were informed in a letter Thursday.
The letter, written by track president Jack Liebau, confirmed what has been widely expected after track management stated that Hollywood Park would eventually be closed and the property developed for residential and commercial uses.
The 75-year-old track will continue its current spring-summer meeting through July 14 and will conduct its final meeting in the autumn, from Nov. 7 through Dec. 22.
Racing board executive director Kirk Breed said Thursday that he received notice of Hollywood Park’s intentions earlier this week.
“It’s like a great old ship on the ocean, like the Queen Mary, all of a sudden, they junk it,” Breed said. “It’s very sad.”
Full story here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Road to the Kentucky Derby - Wrap Up
And we're back.
Vegas was, as it always is, fantastic. By the Grace of God, all Derby Crew members were able to make it last weekend; and that's what makes these occasions the special events that they are. Having close friends that you can get together with and share some fun and laughs is worth more than any winning Pick Six ticket. As with all things in life, there's no guarantees that we'll ever have another Derby Weekend together; but here's praying that The Good Lord will allow us to do this many, many more times in the future.
It's only right that I also take a moment here to give a special shout out to Bert Cirincione. Bert is the Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations over at Green Valley Ranch. That's the place where we played on both Oaks and Derby Day; and to say that we were well taken care of would be the understatement of the year.
The casino is easily accessible, and well laid out. Bert and all the employees in the Race and Sports Book at GVR made sure that we all felt right at home, exceeding all our expectations with their Grade A customer service. If you're planning a Vegas trip, and expect to spend any time at all in a Race and Sports Book, you owe it to yourself to check out Green Valley Ranch. Oh, and if you go there and stick around for dinner, be sure to stop by the Terra Verde for some classic Italian food (I can personally recommend the veal parmigiana).
As to the Kentucky Derby itself: before leaving for Nevada, I gave some guidelines as to what I would be looking for in my Derby selection. Let's take a look and see how the actual Derby winner, Orb, stacks up to the qualifications I laid out.
BREEDING: Can he go the ten furlongs? Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest. Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) . And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.
Orb's Tomlinson Dst Rating ranked seventh in the field of nineteen that went to post. Orb's Tomlinson Turf Rating ranked thirteenth in the field. The rains did come Saturday, and Orb's Wet Tomlinson Rating ranked fourth in the field.
BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them. Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Orb had never posted a Triple Digit Beyer in his career.
POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two. Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.
Orb was in neither Post Position One or Two.
TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races! In fact, watch Friday's races as well. If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.
With the exception of the first race (which was run prior to the pouring rain turning the track sloppy), the eventual winner of every race on the dirt Saturday (including those run after the Derby) was either first or second at second call (the half-mile point). That is, every race except the Kentucky Derby, as Orb was sixteenth at the half-mile mark.
Finally, I had suggested in a prior post that the Kentucky Derby winner is normally a horse that breaks its maiden either its first or second time out. It took Orb four tries in order to get that first win.
At least I was right about the Post Position.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So what happened Saturday? Well, a look at the Equibase chart of the race tells the tale of a too fast pace burning out all the frontrunners, allowing closers to grab all the top spots. Here's a list of the top five finishers in the Kentucky Derby, and where they were at the six furlong mark:
1) Orb - 17th
2) Golden Soul - 15th
3) Revolutionary - 18th
4) Normandy Invasion - 6th
5) Mylute - 16th
Is there precedent for such a pace meltdown in the Derby? Certainly; for just one example, take a look at the chart of the 2005 running, and where those top five finishers were at the six furlong mark:
1) Giacomo - 18th
2) Closing Argument - 6th
3) Afleet Alex - 9th
4) Don't Get Mad - 19th
5) Buzzards Bay - 7th
Pace does indeed make the race; even when it's the biggest race of the year.
By the way, none of this is to take anything away from Orb's achievement. Pace meltdown or no pace meltdown, Orb ran an incredible race, making (in the words of the chart caller) "a bold six wide move" to come from well back to win clear and prove himself to be much the best. Likewise, Orb's record leading up to the Derby speaks well for his ability, having shown himself capable of coming from behind to win not one but two Graded Stakes on the speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track. Orb is a deserving Derby winner, and a horse in which his connections can feel justifiably proud.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Vegas was, as it always is, fantastic. By the Grace of God, all Derby Crew members were able to make it last weekend; and that's what makes these occasions the special events that they are. Having close friends that you can get together with and share some fun and laughs is worth more than any winning Pick Six ticket. As with all things in life, there's no guarantees that we'll ever have another Derby Weekend together; but here's praying that The Good Lord will allow us to do this many, many more times in the future.
It's only right that I also take a moment here to give a special shout out to Bert Cirincione. Bert is the Director of Race and Sports Satellite Operations over at Green Valley Ranch. That's the place where we played on both Oaks and Derby Day; and to say that we were well taken care of would be the understatement of the year.
The casino is easily accessible, and well laid out. Bert and all the employees in the Race and Sports Book at GVR made sure that we all felt right at home, exceeding all our expectations with their Grade A customer service. If you're planning a Vegas trip, and expect to spend any time at all in a Race and Sports Book, you owe it to yourself to check out Green Valley Ranch. Oh, and if you go there and stick around for dinner, be sure to stop by the Terra Verde for some classic Italian food (I can personally recommend the veal parmigiana).
As to the Kentucky Derby itself: before leaving for Nevada, I gave some guidelines as to what I would be looking for in my Derby selection. Let's take a look and see how the actual Derby winner, Orb, stacks up to the qualifications I laid out.
BREEDING: Can he go the ten furlongs? Check those Tomlinson Dst Ratings and/or the Brisnet Dis counterpart, and see which entrants rank the highest. Oh, and be sure also to take a look at those Turf ratings as well; for whatever reason, horses bred for the grass seem to do well on the Churchill Downs main track (see Animal Kingdom, for example) . And, of course, if the rains should come, make sure you know who's best bred to run on the off track.
Orb's Tomlinson Dst Rating ranked seventh in the field of nineteen that went to post. Orb's Tomlinson Turf Rating ranked thirteenth in the field. The rains did come Saturday, and Orb's Wet Tomlinson Rating ranked fourth in the field.
BACK SPEED - While having the best last-out speed figure is worth noting, more important is making sure your selection has somewhere, sometime in his career shown the ability to run with the best of them. Be sure to give weight to those horses that have posted a Triple Digit Beyer at least once.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Orb had never posted a Triple Digit Beyer in his career.
POST POSITION - Significantly downgrade whichever poor soul draws the Number One Post Position; likewise for Number Two. Pray that we never see the day when one of these horses run straight into the rail the lies dead ahead in their path out of the gate.
Orb was in neither Post Position One or Two.
TRACK BIAS - Watch those early races! In fact, watch Friday's races as well. If speed's not coming back, or if deep closers are sweeping the card, you want to know that before the Derby is run; it does you no good to know that afterwards.
With the exception of the first race (which was run prior to the pouring rain turning the track sloppy), the eventual winner of every race on the dirt Saturday (including those run after the Derby) was either first or second at second call (the half-mile point). That is, every race except the Kentucky Derby, as Orb was sixteenth at the half-mile mark.
Finally, I had suggested in a prior post that the Kentucky Derby winner is normally a horse that breaks its maiden either its first or second time out. It took Orb four tries in order to get that first win.
At least I was right about the Post Position.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So what happened Saturday? Well, a look at the Equibase chart of the race tells the tale of a too fast pace burning out all the frontrunners, allowing closers to grab all the top spots. Here's a list of the top five finishers in the Kentucky Derby, and where they were at the six furlong mark:
1) Orb - 17th
2) Golden Soul - 15th
3) Revolutionary - 18th
4) Normandy Invasion - 6th
5) Mylute - 16th
Is there precedent for such a pace meltdown in the Derby? Certainly; for just one example, take a look at the chart of the 2005 running, and where those top five finishers were at the six furlong mark:
1) Giacomo - 18th
2) Closing Argument - 6th
3) Afleet Alex - 9th
4) Don't Get Mad - 19th
5) Buzzards Bay - 7th
Pace does indeed make the race; even when it's the biggest race of the year.
By the way, none of this is to take anything away from Orb's achievement. Pace meltdown or no pace meltdown, Orb ran an incredible race, making (in the words of the chart caller) "a bold six wide move" to come from well back to win clear and prove himself to be much the best. Likewise, Orb's record leading up to the Derby speaks well for his ability, having shown himself capable of coming from behind to win not one but two Graded Stakes on the speed favoring Gulfstream Park main track. Orb is a deserving Derby winner, and a horse in which his connections can feel justifiably proud.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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