6/30/12 CRC Race 7 - American Dreamer Stakes - Results

Two Is to Many (Final Odds 3.8-1) led for a half, gave way to eventual winner Empire Builder (1.4-1), held on gamely, and just missed the Place, taking the Show a neck behind Ravelo's Boy (1.9-1).


Oh well; onto the next race.


Equibase chart is here; DRF chart is here.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

6/30/12 CRC Race 7 - American Dreamer Stakes - Preview

Quite frankly, this race at Calder today is a lot less interesting now that Trainer Martin Wolfson has scratched # 1 Fortin.  Still, with change comes opportunity; so here's some quick thoughts on the remaining field:


# 2 Two Is to Many (Morning Line 6-1) should have the lead all to himself, especially with Fortin out of the picture.  Morning Line favorite # 5 Empire Builder (ML 9-5) may be forced to the front sooner than he'd like in order to keep Two Is to Many to an honest pace.  # 4 Ravelo's Boy (ML 3-1) makes his first start since The Belmont.  While Ravelo's Boy is getting a huge class relief from his last several starts, he's a stone cold closer in what shapes up to be a paceless race, and is therefore unlikely to improve on his career best Beyer of 80.  


# 6 Musical Flair (4-1) had a fine beginning to his career, winning three of his first five races, two of which were listed stakes.  However, since his last victory, Musical Flair hasn't finished within four lengths of the winner in five tries, mostly against company similar to what he will be facing today.  #7 Mucho Mas Macho (ML 15-1) makes his first start on dirt since last year.  Mucho Mas Macho's Beyers over his last three races show steady improvement, but are not close to what it will take to win this race, and it's unclear if the surface switch will help put this gelding over the top. # 3 El Romano (ML 8-1), like Empire Builder and Musical Flair, is probably better suited to the turf than dirt  (note that those three are a combined six-for-twelve on the grass, while being a combined two-for-fourteen on a fast dirt track).  Hard to imagine El Romano topping this field today.


Bottom Line:  Lone speed loose on the lead is often considered the best bet in the game, and that's the position Two Is to Many should find himself in today.  If the public insists on making Empire Builder the favorite, Two Is to Many's appeal is that much greater.


Good luck to all.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

Winning Post Position Abnormalities

So I'm handicapping a couple of races for today (Saturday, June 30) at Calder, when I decide to see how the various Post Positions have been faring for the current meet.  Here's the winning Post Position stats for dirt sprints, courtesy of Equibase.com, through yesterday:

Calder Race Course Standings - Through June 29, 2012

Sprint Races

PP......Starts......Wins......Win%

1.........277.........57.......... 20.6
2.........277.........24.............8.7
3.........277.........45...........16.2
4.........277.........35...........12.6
5.........277.........31...........11.2
6.........258.........32...........12.4
7.........207.........21...........10.1
8.........123.........19...........15.4
9..........59...........6............10.2
10.........29..........6............20.7
11..........7...........1............14.3
12..........4...........0..............0.0

As you can see, with the exception of Post Position 12 (which is winless in four tries) Post Position 2 is the only Post Position to have won fewer than ten percent of it starts in sprints this meet at Calder. 


How can that be?  Surely it can't be the track; not with Post Position 3 right next door winning twice as often, while Post Position 1 to the inside is collecting at better than twenty percent.  It can't be a problem with the gate, since (as you can see from the full chart here) Post Position 2 is winning its fair share of races in routes and on the grass.  So what could it be?


Well, for the time being, I'm going to just presume that it's one of those statistical flukes that pops up from time to time.  Even though the sample isn't all that small, I'm going to move on with the presumption that this is nothing more than an abnormality in the numbers that will correct itself as the meet goes on.  Perhaps the Number 2 Post Position just hasn't been getting its fair share of favorites; had I the time, I would be go through the charts for the meet to see what the average Final Odds are for each Post Position, and perhaps find the solution to this mystery there-in.


Anyway, if anyone of you want to offer up a theory as to what's taking place at Calder, or if you have your own story regarding Post Position madness, I'd love to hear it.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

6/23/12 BHP R7 - Two To (Potentially) Watch

Saturday, June 23, Hollywood Park, Race 7, was a $50K MSW for state bred fillies and mares three years old and up, covering six furlongs over some California grass.  Two horses coming out of that race may bear watching in the future.

Gypsy Friday, a three year old filly sired by In Excess, was steadied twice, but managed to improve position in the stretch and finish fifth.  This was her eleventh start, so Gypsy Friday may just be a career maiden; but she's been in the money in half of her last six races, so it could be that she's just starting to figure it out.  Her dam sire is Royal Academy, so there's definitely class in the bloodlines.  She's never run on dirt (nine times on grass; twice on the plastic) and she's never been in for a tag.  She's bred, trained, and owned by Edward Freeman.  Gypsy Friday could be close to breaking out; perhaps a change (surface, class, and/or barn) may give her the spark she needs.

Paralyzing Eyes, a three year old filly sired by Decarchy, made her debut Saturday, and showed herself to be totally green, as she completely blew the start, and manged to be twenty (yes, twenty) and a half lengths behind the leader at first call.  When the winner crossed the finish line forty-seven and four-fifths seconds later, Paralyzing Eyes was way,way back, twenty-one and a half lengths away from the finish line.

Now, following horses that manage to lose by over twenty lengths in a six furlong sprint is rarely a winning strategy.  But remember where Paralyzing Eyes started, and you see that she lost only one length on the leader over the final half-mile, covering those four furlongs in approximately forty-eight flat.  So if Trainer Bruce Jackson can teach her to break with the rest of the field when the buzzer sounds, I would expect Paralyzing Eyes to be listed much higher on the chart her next time out.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

Breeders' Cup: Board Set To Vote On 2013 Site

Courtesy DRF.com:

The Breeders’ Cup board of directors was expected to vote on Thursday on the selection of a host site for the 2013 year-end event, with the option of choosing among Churchill Downs in Louisville, Santa Anita Park in Southern California, and Monmouth Park in New Jersey, according to officials.


It was unclear on Thursday afternoon when Breeders’ Cup would announce the 2013 site if the board approved one of the locations. Breeders’ Cup officials cited a longstanding policy this week to refuse to comment on any aspect of the site-selection process until an official announcement is made.


Distribution of Breeders' Cup Host Tracks, 1984-2005:


Churchill Downs......5 
Belmont Park..........4
Gulfstream Park......3
Hollywood Park......3
Santa Anita.............3
Aqueduct................1
Arlington Park.........1
Lone Star................1
Woodbine...............1 


Distribution of Breeders' Cup Host Tracks, 2006-2012:


Churchill Downs.......3
Santa Anita..............3
Monmouth Park.......1


Full story can be found here

Peace and Love,


Jimbo

AND WE'RE OFF!

Hello Hello!


Glad you made it here.  I'm even more glad that I made it here.


The plan is to use this area to record my thoughts and observations about thoroughbred horse racing in North America.  Basically, this is the stuff that I would send out occasionally in emails to my friends, family, and crew.  My hope is to use this blog to keep all those words of wisdom (and the not infrequent words of folly) all together in one (relatively) easy to find spot.  And if others outside my circle should find something here of interest, so much the better.


I've been hesitant to do this primarily because I feel this blog has an excellent of ending up like millions of blogs before it: forgotten and abandoned.  You know what I mean; it seems like most new blogs start out with five posts the first week; then five posts the next month; then five posts the next quarter; then five posts the next year; until finally the blog is just abandoned.  Hopefully that won't happen here; but it would be silly to pretend that it may not.


Another reason why I was hesitant to start this blog is because of my personal schedule; primarily, how I like to spend my leisure time.  I typically plan my annual vacations to coincide with the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup; the two biggest thoroughbred horse racing events of the year.  For those two weekends you will find me with my mates in Vegas; and I can assure you, posting blog entries during those weekends will be pretty much the furthest thing from my mind.  So that means that this blog about horse racing will be dark on horse racing's biggest days.  I suppose the equivalent would be a blog about American football that shuts down every year in the days leading up to and including Super Bowl Sunday.  So that will be different.


To close out this intro, let me just add this disclaimer:


IF ANY INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG HELPS YOU WIN, I TAKE ALL OF THE CREDIT; HOWEVER, IF ANY INFORMATION ON THIS BLOG CAUSES YOU TO LOSE, I ACCEPT NONE OF THE BLAME.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo