Race 6 - # 8 Foxy Fresh (Final Odds 1.90*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Toinette (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Yuvetsi (5.70) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Epical (19.00) - "C" Selection
As has happened more times than I care to remember, a contest which I considered to be oh so complex proved to be oh so simple to the betting public; as the opening leg, a race in which I considered hitting the "ALL" button, and did in fact use every entrant in some form or another, saw the Post Time Favorite romp with ease, leading the field every step of the way while winning by as many as she pleased. Had I had a better handle on that leg, I might have had room on the big ticket for the eventual winner of the nightcap, instead of merely using him as a backup.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pay for the runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 2 Concur (1.60*) - $103.50 Finish: 3rd
# 10 Fengari (2.80) - $152.75 Finish: 10th
I also had # 6 Pali High, who was scratched, on the big ticket. Since I received the Post Time Favorite, Concur, in Pali High's place, the above payout would have been doubled had Concur crossed under the wire first.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 6 / 3 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $707.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 28, 2018
1/28/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Race 7 on Sunday's Santa Anita card has an interesting twist: all nine runners are Kentucky bred. And that's all I've got by way of introduction; so let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ransomed (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Diamond Proof (ML 15-1)
# 2 Blissful Lady (ML 6-1)
# 8 Foxy Fresh (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Candy Boss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Ramona Lover (ML 12-1)
# 6 Singleforareason (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sharp Holiday (ML 30-1)
# 9 Majestic Diva (ML 8-1)
I'll be using all runners in this leg in some form or another; and if I could have found a single in one of the final three contests on the card, I would have just put everyone in this leg on the big ticket.
The horse that looks to be most talented here, Blissful Lady, seems to settle for too many minor awards. Perhaps that will change with the blinkers going back on. I'm not all the confident that it will make a difference; but we'll see.
Many of these look to be need to lead types; if so, then Foxy Fresh, who looks to be the speed of the speed, should dash their dreams early. Diamond Proof graduated last time out by coming off the pace; perhaps she can do that again today.
My top choice here, Ransomed, was in over her head last time out. If Ransomed runs back to her effort two starts back, or ever three starts back, then she stands a good chance of getting her picture taken today. But my best advice here is to use as many runners as you can afford.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Ladybug (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Fantastic Girl (ML 12-1)
# 6 Toinette (ML 2-1)
C's
# 5 Beyond Ambition (ML 8-1)
# 9 Rockin Ready (ML 5-1)
Ladybug took the Show charging down the hill last time out. Fantastic Girl's breeding suggests that she'll hand the surface switch well. Toinette ran well in her debut last time out once she realized that there was a race going on and that she was in it.
Beyond Ambition was quick early in her debut last time out. Rockin Ready is a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato who seems well meant here.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bar Scene (ML 6-1)
# 3 Yuvestal (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Lady Ninja (ML 5-1)
# 10 Life's Blessings (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Dutton's Legend (15-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 8-1)
# 8 What What What (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Wedding Blush (ML 5-1)
Bar Scene moves up from state bred company for the first time after having finished in the Exacta in each of her first four races. Yuvestal took the Place at this class level last time out.
Lady Ninja took the Show behind Yuvestal two starts back. Life's Blessings returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.
Dutton's Legend is a first time starter for Trainer Mike Puype, and I have no idea why anyone would debut a runner at this class level; but I'm willing to risk fifty cents on the proposition that Dutton's Legend will run well today. Phantom Proton could move up with the return to the main track. What What What took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Fengari (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Concur (ML 5-2)
# 6 Pali High (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Bartlett Hall (ML 20-1)
# 5 Epical (ML 15-1)
# 7 Samdar (ML 12-1)
# 9 Saratoga Morning (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Pointed (ML 8-1); # 13 Jungle Warfare (ML 7-2); # 14 Fightinirishtabit (ML 20-1)
Fengari took the Show at this class level last time out. Fengari should benefit from the cutback in distance. Concur, trained by Phil D'Amato, could move up with the move to the turf. Pali High could improve going second off the layoff.
Bartlett Hall could improve off the freshening. First time starter Epical and second time starter Samdar, both sired by Uncle Mo, could do well in their respective initial try on the turf. Saratoga Morning should be well placed early and may get a nice stalking trip.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,3 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,8 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,9,10 with 2,6,10 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7,9 with 3 with 2,3 with 10 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5,9 with 2,3 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 4,7,8 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,3 with 1,5,7,9 $4.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ransomed (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Diamond Proof (ML 15-1)
# 2 Blissful Lady (ML 6-1)
# 8 Foxy Fresh (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Candy Boss (ML 7-2)
# 5 Ramona Lover (ML 12-1)
# 6 Singleforareason (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sharp Holiday (ML 30-1)
# 9 Majestic Diva (ML 8-1)
I'll be using all runners in this leg in some form or another; and if I could have found a single in one of the final three contests on the card, I would have just put everyone in this leg on the big ticket.
The horse that looks to be most talented here, Blissful Lady, seems to settle for too many minor awards. Perhaps that will change with the blinkers going back on. I'm not all the confident that it will make a difference; but we'll see.
Many of these look to be need to lead types; if so, then Foxy Fresh, who looks to be the speed of the speed, should dash their dreams early. Diamond Proof graduated last time out by coming off the pace; perhaps she can do that again today.
My top choice here, Ransomed, was in over her head last time out. If Ransomed runs back to her effort two starts back, or ever three starts back, then she stands a good chance of getting her picture taken today. But my best advice here is to use as many runners as you can afford.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Ladybug (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Fantastic Girl (ML 12-1)
# 6 Toinette (ML 2-1)
C's
# 5 Beyond Ambition (ML 8-1)
# 9 Rockin Ready (ML 5-1)
Ladybug took the Show charging down the hill last time out. Fantastic Girl's breeding suggests that she'll hand the surface switch well. Toinette ran well in her debut last time out once she realized that there was a race going on and that she was in it.
Beyond Ambition was quick early in her debut last time out. Rockin Ready is a first time starter for Trainer Phil D'Amato who seems well meant here.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bar Scene (ML 6-1)
# 3 Yuvestal (ML 10-1)
B’s
# 9 Lady Ninja (ML 5-1)
# 10 Life's Blessings (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Dutton's Legend (15-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 8-1)
# 8 What What What (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 1 Wedding Blush (ML 5-1)
Bar Scene moves up from state bred company for the first time after having finished in the Exacta in each of her first four races. Yuvestal took the Place at this class level last time out.
Lady Ninja took the Show behind Yuvestal two starts back. Life's Blessings returns from an extended vacation for Trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.
Dutton's Legend is a first time starter for Trainer Mike Puype, and I have no idea why anyone would debut a runner at this class level; but I'm willing to risk fifty cents on the proposition that Dutton's Legend will run well today. Phantom Proton could move up with the return to the main track. What What What took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit on the turf.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Fengari (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Concur (ML 5-2)
# 6 Pali High (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Bartlett Hall (ML 20-1)
# 5 Epical (ML 15-1)
# 7 Samdar (ML 12-1)
# 9 Saratoga Morning (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 12 Pointed (ML 8-1); # 13 Jungle Warfare (ML 7-2); # 14 Fightinirishtabit (ML 20-1)
Fengari took the Show at this class level last time out. Fengari should benefit from the cutback in distance. Concur, trained by Phil D'Amato, could move up with the move to the turf. Pali High could improve going second off the layoff.
Bartlett Hall could improve off the freshening. First time starter Epical and second time starter Samdar, both sired by Uncle Mo, could do well in their respective initial try on the turf. Saratoga Morning should be well placed early and may get a nice stalking trip.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,3 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,8 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,9,10 with 2,6,10 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7,9 with 3 with 2,3 with 10 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 5,9 with 2,3 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 4,7,8 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,3 with 1,5,7,9 $4.00
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 27, 2018
1/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 5 Native Treasure (Final Odds 11.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Unusual Heat Turf Classic - # 6 Rye (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Judicial (4.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 George From Tahoe (3.10) - "A" Selection
And that's why you play backup tickets.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 11 / 3 paid $377.45 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $281.45 on my initial $96 investment, or approximate odds of 2.93-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Unusual Heat Turf Classic - # 6 Rye (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 11 Judicial (4.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 3 George From Tahoe (3.10) - "A" Selection
And that's why you play backup tickets.
The correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 11 / 3 paid $377.45 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $281.45 on my initial $96 investment, or approximate odds of 2.93-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
California breds are in the spotlight Saturday, as the Santa Anita card contains four stakes for runners that are state bred or sired. Oh, and note the earlier than usual Post Time for the opener; apparently there's some big race happening in Florida. Anyway, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - [S] Clm $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Rocket Fuel (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Matriculate (ML 5-2)
# 6 Guy Code (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 5-1)
Rocket Fuel should improve with the move off the lawn. Matriculate is a re-claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, for whom he ran quite well. Guy Code took the Place against classier foes last time out; Guy Code also looks to be quickest here. Native Treasure could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - [S] The Unusual Heat Turf Classic $200k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Rye (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 He Will (ML 2-1)
# 4 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 5-1)
C's
# 7 The Big Train (ML 15-1)
# 8 Smokey Image (ML 3-1)
Rye should improve with the return to the turf; besides, Trainer Billy Morey has been winning everything else at Santa Anita the past few weeks. He Will could move up with the class drop; but the distance may be problematic. Camino Del Paraiso fits well here on class; but Camino Del Paraiso seems to settle for too many minor awards.
The Big Train has been showing steady improvement (albeit against lesser company) since joining the barn of Trainer Peter Miller. Smokey Image should be forwardly placed early and may hit the line before the the rest have a chance to get into top gear.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Karmic Affinity (ML 15-1)
# 11 Judicial (ML 5-1)
# 12 Nice Ice (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Smoovie (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mixed Emotions (ML 12-1)
# 6 Inland Empire (ML 5-1)
# 10 Z Z Tiger (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Sunny Sweet (ML 30-1)
# 7 Swanee (ML 15-1)
# 9 Oh My Soul (ML 15-1)
Judicial, Charmingslew, Inland Empire, and Z Z Tiger all exit the same last out contest; and all ran well enough to be worthy of consideration today. Nice Ice ships in from upstate after taking the Place in her debut. Nice Ice's work over this main track on the 20th suggests that she should handle the surface switch well.
Karmic Affinity, Smoovie, Mixed Emotions, and Champagne Honey are all first time starters that seem capable enough (either through works, connections, or breeding) to graduate in their debut. The "C" Selections are everyone else. Needless to say, I consider this to be a wide open contest. I probably should just hit the "ALL" button for the big ticket; but, trying to keep this play at least in the same area code as the budget, I'll take my chances with seventy-five percent of the field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 George From Tahoe (ML 7-2)
B's
# 4 Smart Knows Smart (ML 4-1)
C's
# 5 Shaymin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Jump the Tracks (ML 8-1)
# 9 Gringo Star (ML 12-1)
# 10 Minister's Glory (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 12 Consensual (ML 4-1) and # 14 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 50-1). Bring in # 13 Ready Eddie (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list.
George From Tahoe ran quite well charging down the Santa Anita Hill in his debut last time out. If he can carry that form onto the flats, George From Tahoe should get his picture taken today.
Smart Knows Smart missed graduation by just a nose the last time that he competed on the grass at today's distance. Shaymin moved up with the move to the turf last time out; perhaps Shaymin will continue to improve.
Jump the Tracks did well in his first try around two turns last time out, albeit over the main track. Gringo Star could improve with the rider change. Minister's Glory tried to go quick early last time out and was finished too soon; if Minister's Glory can rate early he may be able to get up in time late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12 with 3,4 $81.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 2,7,9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 5,6,9,10 $6.00
Total: $96.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:45 EST / 2:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - [S] Clm $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Rocket Fuel (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Matriculate (ML 5-2)
# 6 Guy Code (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Native Treasure (ML 5-1)
Rocket Fuel should improve with the move off the lawn. Matriculate is a re-claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, for whom he ran quite well. Guy Code took the Place against classier foes last time out; Guy Code also looks to be quickest here. Native Treasure could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - [S] The Unusual Heat Turf Classic $200k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Rye (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 He Will (ML 2-1)
# 4 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 5-1)
C's
# 7 The Big Train (ML 15-1)
# 8 Smokey Image (ML 3-1)
Rye should improve with the return to the turf; besides, Trainer Billy Morey has been winning everything else at Santa Anita the past few weeks. He Will could move up with the class drop; but the distance may be problematic. Camino Del Paraiso fits well here on class; but Camino Del Paraiso seems to settle for too many minor awards.
The Big Train has been showing steady improvement (albeit against lesser company) since joining the barn of Trainer Peter Miller. Smokey Image should be forwardly placed early and may hit the line before the the rest have a chance to get into top gear.
RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Karmic Affinity (ML 15-1)
# 11 Judicial (ML 5-1)
# 12 Nice Ice (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Smoovie (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mixed Emotions (ML 12-1)
# 4 Charmingslew (ML 7-2)
# 5 Champagne Honey (ML 8-1)# 6 Inland Empire (ML 5-1)
# 10 Z Z Tiger (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Sunny Sweet (ML 30-1)
# 7 Swanee (ML 15-1)
# 9 Oh My Soul (ML 15-1)
Judicial, Charmingslew, Inland Empire, and Z Z Tiger all exit the same last out contest; and all ran well enough to be worthy of consideration today. Nice Ice ships in from upstate after taking the Place in her debut. Nice Ice's work over this main track on the 20th suggests that she should handle the surface switch well.
Karmic Affinity, Smoovie, Mixed Emotions, and Champagne Honey are all first time starters that seem capable enough (either through works, connections, or breeding) to graduate in their debut. The "C" Selections are everyone else. Needless to say, I consider this to be a wide open contest. I probably should just hit the "ALL" button for the big ticket; but, trying to keep this play at least in the same area code as the budget, I'll take my chances with seventy-five percent of the field.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 George From Tahoe (ML 7-2)
B's
# 4 Smart Knows Smart (ML 4-1)
C's
# 5 Shaymin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Jump the Tracks (ML 8-1)
# 9 Gringo Star (ML 12-1)
# 10 Minister's Glory (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 12 Consensual (ML 4-1) and # 14 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 50-1). Bring in # 13 Ready Eddie (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list.
George From Tahoe ran quite well charging down the Santa Anita Hill in his debut last time out. If he can carry that form onto the flats, George From Tahoe should get his picture taken today.
Smart Knows Smart missed graduation by just a nose the last time that he competed on the grass at today's distance. Shaymin moved up with the move to the turf last time out; perhaps Shaymin will continue to improve.
Jump the Tracks did well in his first try around two turns last time out, albeit over the main track. Gringo Star could improve with the rider change. Minister's Glory tried to go quick early last time out and was finished too soon; if Minister's Glory can rate early he may be able to get up in time late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12 with 3,4 $81.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 2,7,9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 5,6,9,10 $6.00
Total: $96.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 5:45 EST / 2:45 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 21, 2018
1/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Kaboom (Final Odds 2.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Lifeline (2.40*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Airfoil (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Miss Boom Boom (2.30*) - "C" Selection
The betting public was smarter than I was in the two turf contests, as they landed on the winner in both the second and fourth legs, while I had those two runners on my backup tickets only.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 10 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $94.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Lifeline (2.40*) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Airfoil (2.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Miss Boom Boom (2.30*) - "C" Selection
The betting public was smarter than I was in the two turf contests, as they landed on the winner in both the second and fourth legs, while I had those two runners on my backup tickets only.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 4 / 10 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $94.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/21/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
No stakes, either Listed or Graded, on Sunday's card in Arcadia. Indeed, the final four races don't even contain a pure Allowance race in the sequence, as each of the final four events offer horses for sale in some shape or form. So with that as introduction let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $16k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 League of Shadows (Morning Line 2-1)
# 6 Gio's Gold (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Kaboom (ML 2-1)
# 3 Magical More (ML 5-1)
# 4 Beloved Holiday (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mintenized (ML 20-1)
# 7 Royal Seeker (ML 5-1)
# 8 Call Me Soul (ML 15-1)
C's
None
League of Shadows has shown good early speed in each of his first two contests. Gio's Gold could move up with a cleaner break. Kaboom showed good early speed in his debut last time out; but that was back in April. On the other hand, Trainer Steve Miyadi has chosen to keep Kaboom at Santa Anita rather than shipping him upstate to Golden Gate; so that must mean something.
Magical More took the Place against more expensive over this main track three starts back. Mintenized could improve going third off the layoff. Call Me Soul is a first time starter, and he deserves consideration primarily because none of the experienced runners in this field were able to find their way into the Trifecta last time out. You know what? Let's just go "ALL" on the big ticket for this leg, because it's clear that I have no handle on who is going to win this contest.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Goodwood Mirage (Ire) (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 6 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Lifeline (ML 5-2)
# 7 Van Cortlandt (ML 3-1)
# 8 Temple Keys (ML 5-1)
Goodwood Mirage (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta in two of his last three starts, against classier competition. Oscar Domingues (Ire) was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level.
Lifeline could improve off the layoff with the return to the lawn. Van Cortlandt was victorious the last time that he raced at today's distance. Temple Keys has proven to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Top Brass (ML 5-2)
# 4 Stoneys Mr Cruiser (ML 15-1)
C's
# 5 Karma King (ML 5-1)
# 8 Finallygotabentley (ML 3-1)
Airfoil goes first off the claim for Trainer Steve Knapp, who tends to do well with such. Top Brass, trained by David Jacobson, drops in class off a victory against more expensive, which suggests that Top Brass may not be the horse today that he was a month ago.
Stoneys Mr Cruiser looks quickest here; though it fair to wonder if Stoneys Mr Cruiser can last 'til the wire. Finallygotabentley and Karma King filled out the Exacta last time out at approximately this class level ($12.5k vs $10k).
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Salsita (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Ryder's Starlight (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Miss Boom Boom (ML 3-1)
# 4 Gift of a Star (ML 10-1)
# 6 Scattagirl (ML 5-1)
Like Top Brass in the previous contest (above) Salsita (trained by Jerry Hollendorfer) is dropping in for a cheaper price tag after having defeated classier foes last time out. That's a pretty good sign that Salsita isn't the same horse that she was when she got her picture taken last time out. But even at less than one hundred percent, Salsita looks like the one to beat here.
Ryder's Starlight took the Show against more expensive last time out. Miss Boom Boom goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such. Gift of a Star looks quickest here. Scattagirl gets some much needed class relief.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 10 with 2 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5,6 with 1,4,10 with 2,5 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 4,7,8 with 10 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 5,8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 10 with 3,4,6 $3.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Md $16k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 League of Shadows (Morning Line 2-1)
# 6 Gio's Gold (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Kaboom (ML 2-1)
# 3 Magical More (ML 5-1)
# 4 Beloved Holiday (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mintenized (ML 20-1)
# 7 Royal Seeker (ML 5-1)
# 8 Call Me Soul (ML 15-1)
None
League of Shadows has shown good early speed in each of his first two contests. Gio's Gold could move up with a cleaner break. Kaboom showed good early speed in his debut last time out; but that was back in April. On the other hand, Trainer Steve Miyadi has chosen to keep Kaboom at Santa Anita rather than shipping him upstate to Golden Gate; so that must mean something.
Magical More took the Place against more expensive over this main track three starts back. Mintenized could improve going third off the layoff. Call Me Soul is a first time starter, and he deserves consideration primarily because none of the experienced runners in this field were able to find their way into the Trifecta last time out. You know what? Let's just go "ALL" on the big ticket for this leg, because it's clear that I have no handle on who is going to win this contest.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Goodwood Mirage (Ire) (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 6 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C's
# 4 Lifeline (ML 5-2)
# 7 Van Cortlandt (ML 3-1)
# 8 Temple Keys (ML 5-1)
Goodwood Mirage (Ire) has finished in the Trifecta in two of his last three starts, against classier competition. Oscar Domingues (Ire) was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level.
Lifeline could improve off the layoff with the return to the lawn. Van Cortlandt was victorious the last time that he raced at today's distance. Temple Keys has proven to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 8 - Clm $10k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 1 Top Brass (ML 5-2)
# 4 Stoneys Mr Cruiser (ML 15-1)
C's
# 5 Karma King (ML 5-1)
# 8 Finallygotabentley (ML 3-1)
Airfoil goes first off the claim for Trainer Steve Knapp, who tends to do well with such. Top Brass, trained by David Jacobson, drops in class off a victory against more expensive, which suggests that Top Brass may not be the horse today that he was a month ago.
Stoneys Mr Cruiser looks quickest here; though it fair to wonder if Stoneys Mr Cruiser can last 'til the wire. Finallygotabentley and Karma King filled out the Exacta last time out at approximately this class level ($12.5k vs $10k).
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Salsita (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 5 Ryder's Starlight (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Miss Boom Boom (ML 3-1)
# 4 Gift of a Star (ML 10-1)
# 6 Scattagirl (ML 5-1)
Like Top Brass in the previous contest (above) Salsita (trained by Jerry Hollendorfer) is dropping in for a cheaper price tag after having defeated classier foes last time out. That's a pretty good sign that Salsita isn't the same horse that she was when she got her picture taken last time out. But even at less than one hundred percent, Salsita looks like the one to beat here.
Ryder's Starlight took the Show against more expensive last time out. Miss Boom Boom goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such. Gift of a Star looks quickest here. Scattagirl gets some much needed class relief.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 10 with 2 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 5,6 with 1,4,10 with 2,5 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 4,7,8 with 10 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 5,8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 5 with 10 with 3,4,6 $3.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 20, 2018
1/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Tinabud (Final Odds 3.40) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Las Cienegas - # 1 Coniah (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Jay Makes Us Laugh (11.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Conquest Tsunami (4.80) - "C" Selection
Tinabud is a horse that I would not have used on the big ticket had I not hit the “ALL” button. I had originally pegged Tinabud as a “C” Selection in the opening leg, along with # 2 Baytown Juliet; but when Baytown Juliet was scratched, I moved Tinabdud onto the big ticket; because using "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race wager is never a good idea. Indeed, using "ALL but one" is the type of move that leads people to mumbling to themselves in the dark late at night.
But as it turned out, using Tinabud as a "C" would have led to the same result, with the play being ended in the penultimate leg when Jay Makes Us Laugh ran 'em off their feet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 1 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $552.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Las Cienegas - # 1 Coniah (2.20) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 3 Jay Makes Us Laugh (11.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Conquest Tsunami (4.80) - "C" Selection
Tinabud is a horse that I would not have used on the big ticket had I not hit the “ALL” button. I had originally pegged Tinabud as a “C” Selection in the opening leg, along with # 2 Baytown Juliet; but when Baytown Juliet was scratched, I moved Tinabdud onto the big ticket; because using "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race wager is never a good idea. Indeed, using "ALL but one" is the type of move that leads people to mumbling to themselves in the dark late at night.
But as it turned out, using Tinabud as a "C" would have led to the same result, with the play being ended in the penultimate leg when Jay Makes Us Laugh ran 'em off their feet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 6 / 1 / 3 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $552.50 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 3 Las Cienegas, a six and a half furlong charge down the hill for fillies and mares, is the featured race on Saturday's card at Santa Anita. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Angelina's Heaven (Morning Line 20-1)
# 5 Sauce On Side (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Lady Phyllis (ML 4-1)
# 3 Empress of Love (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tinabud (ML 3-1)
# 7 Winsinfashion (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Baytown Juliet (ML 20-1)
This contest is a actually an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid; but since no one is in for the tag, I've dropped the Optional Claiming piece above. So any three year old filly that has ever started for a claiming price of $50k or less, and has only visited the Winner's Circle once in her career, is eligible to run here.
Angelina's Heaven closed well last time out into fractions that weren't all that quick. Sauce On Side closed well to graduate by a comfortable margin last time out. Lady Phyllis and Empress of Love are a pair of class droppers who could move up facing weaker company. Tinabud graduated by daylight last time out despite a less than smooth trip. Winsinfashion graduated by as many as she wanted the last time that she routed on a dirt track. And that's the full field of six, so the big ticket will be hitting the "ALL" button.
RACE 7 - (F) The Las Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Coniah (ML 4-1)
B's
# 7 Proper Discretion (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Bendable (ML 5-2)
# 6 Anita Partner (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 3 Angel Allie (ML 8-1) and # 7 Miss Southern Miss (ML 12-1)
Coniah took the Place over a length ahead of Anita Partner (Ire) in the Grade 2 Monrovia the last time these two charged down the Santa Anita hill. Proper Discretion projects to be a pace presence early; perhaps Proper Discretion will be quick enough to take them all the way home.
Bendable is a Graded Stakes winner on the dirt; if Bendable can carry that form onto the lawn she'll be tough to handle here. Beau Recall (Ire) could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Gosofar (ML 2-1)
# 4 Rocky's Show (ML 4-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 8-1)
# 8 Traffic Ticket (ML 6-1)
Rocky's Show looks to be the quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Gosofar may be the most talented runner here; but Gosofar seems to settle for too many minor awards.
Jay Makes Us Laugh seems to do well with these short distances. Traffic Ticket could improve with the return to California.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Tribal Fighter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Anatolian Heat (ML 7-2)
# 8 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Semper Fortis (ML 8-1)
# 6 Conquest Tsunami (ML 4-1)
Eric the Trojan, Tribal Fighter, and Anatolian Heat filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta the last time that they charged down the Santa Anita hill together. Ronald R (Ire) is making his North American debut, and seems to fit well here on class.
Semper Fortis is trying grass for the first time; Semper Fortis' breeding suggests that he'll do well with the surface switch. Conquest Tsunami, shipping in from Woodbine, projects to be a pace presence early, and may be able to hang in there late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 5,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,7 with 2,4 with 1,5,7,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 2,6,9 with 2,4 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 3,8 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 3,6 $4.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Angelina's Heaven (Morning Line 20-1)
# 5 Sauce On Side (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 1 Lady Phyllis (ML 4-1)
# 3 Empress of Love (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tinabud (ML 3-1)
# 7 Winsinfashion (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 2 Baytown Juliet (ML 20-1)
This contest is a actually an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid; but since no one is in for the tag, I've dropped the Optional Claiming piece above. So any three year old filly that has ever started for a claiming price of $50k or less, and has only visited the Winner's Circle once in her career, is eligible to run here.
Angelina's Heaven closed well last time out into fractions that weren't all that quick. Sauce On Side closed well to graduate by a comfortable margin last time out. Lady Phyllis and Empress of Love are a pair of class droppers who could move up facing weaker company. Tinabud graduated by daylight last time out despite a less than smooth trip. Winsinfashion graduated by as many as she wanted the last time that she routed on a dirt track. And that's the full field of six, so the big ticket will be hitting the "ALL" button.
RACE 7 - (F) The Las Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Coniah (ML 4-1)
B's
# 7 Proper Discretion (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Bendable (ML 5-2)
# 6 Anita Partner (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)
Scratch # 3 Angel Allie (ML 8-1) and # 7 Miss Southern Miss (ML 12-1)
Coniah took the Place over a length ahead of Anita Partner (Ire) in the Grade 2 Monrovia the last time these two charged down the Santa Anita hill. Proper Discretion projects to be a pace presence early; perhaps Proper Discretion will be quick enough to take them all the way home.
Bendable is a Graded Stakes winner on the dirt; if Bendable can carry that form onto the lawn she'll be tough to handle here. Beau Recall (Ire) could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Gosofar (ML 2-1)
# 4 Rocky's Show (ML 4-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 8-1)
# 8 Traffic Ticket (ML 6-1)
Rocky's Show looks to be the quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win. Gosofar may be the most talented runner here; but Gosofar seems to settle for too many minor awards.
Jay Makes Us Laugh seems to do well with these short distances. Traffic Ticket could improve with the return to California.
RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Tribal Fighter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Anatolian Heat (ML 7-2)
# 8 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Semper Fortis (ML 8-1)
# 6 Conquest Tsunami (ML 4-1)
Eric the Trojan, Tribal Fighter, and Anatolian Heat filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta the last time that they charged down the Santa Anita hill together. Ronald R (Ire) is making his North American debut, and seems to fit well here on class.
Semper Fortis is trying grass for the first time; Semper Fortis' breeding suggests that he'll do well with the surface switch. Conquest Tsunami, shipping in from Woodbine, projects to be a pace presence early, and may be able to hang in there late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 5,7 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,7 with 2,4 with 1,5,7,8 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 2,6,9 with 2,4 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 3,8 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 3,6 $4.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, January 15, 2018
1/15/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Jimmythisnjimthat (Final Odds 2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Megahertz - # 3 Madame Stripes (Arg) (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Hot Sean (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Gone to Town (8.70) - "B" Selection
My big ticket single, # 4 Insta Erma (1.10*) had the lead in the stretch in The Megahertz, but was passed in the final strides by # 3 Madame Stripes (Arg), and had to settle for the Place, a length and a quarter behind the winner. And that length and a quarter was the difference Monday between collecting and contributing, as the other three winners were all to be found on the big ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 11 Sunday Prophet (3.70) - $232.35 Finish: 11th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 1 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $447.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Megahertz - # 3 Madame Stripes (Arg) (3.50) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Hot Sean (3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 2 Gone to Town (8.70) - "B" Selection
My big ticket single, # 4 Insta Erma (1.10*) had the lead in the stretch in The Megahertz, but was passed in the final strides by # 3 Madame Stripes (Arg), and had to settle for the Place, a length and a quarter behind the winner. And that length and a quarter was the difference Monday between collecting and contributing, as the other three winners were all to be found on the big ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the runner to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 11 Sunday Prophet (3.70) - $232.35 Finish: 11th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 3 / 1 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $447.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/15/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
The featured race on Monday's holiday card at Santa Anita is the Grade 3 Megahertz, a contest for fillies and mares four years old and upward, to be run at a distance of eight furlongs on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Gem of a Guy (Morning Line 2-1)
# 8 Jimmythisnjimthat (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Imagineiamfastest (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pure Moment (ML 4-1)
C's
The featured race on Monday's holiday card at Santa Anita is the Grade 3 Megahertz, a contest for fillies and mares four years old and upward, to be run at a distance of eight furlongs on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Gem of a Guy (Morning Line 2-1)
# 8 Jimmythisnjimthat (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Imagineiamfastest (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pure Moment (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Agressivebrawler (ML 50-1)
# 6 Lighthouse Boogie (ML 6-1)
Gem of a Guy, making his second career start and first for a tag, looks to be the clear best of the experienced runners in this field; but that's not saying much. Jimmythisnjimthat, one of a half dozen debut runners here, is out of a dam (Nea Nea Denae) who has produced three winners from three starters. Jimmythisandjimthat also has Indian Charlie as a grandsire, which adds to the appeal.
Imagineiamfastest is sired by Violence, whose progeny have been doing well at first asking. Pure Moment had a nice gate work back on the 3rd over this main track.
Agressivebrawler is the only experienced runner in this field to have finished in the Superfecta. Lighthouse Boogie is trained by Art Sherman, whose debut runners tend not to do well at first asking. But Lighthouse Boogie's breeding suggests that he will run well here; and, as previously mentioned, this is not the toughest of fields.
RACE 7 - (F) The Megahertz (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Insta Erma (ML 2-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Laseen (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 3 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Thundering Sky (ML 3-1)
# 3 Madame Stripes (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 5 Thundering Sky (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 6 Bombilate (ML 20-1)
While I really don't enjoy singling in a turf race, Insta Erma looks to be much the best here, as well as being in top form. If Insta Erma repeats her last effort, when she took the Show in the Grade 1 Matriarch, she wins here. If Insta Erma repeats her effort from two starts back, when she won the Swingtime, she wins here. If Insta Erma repeats her effort from three starts back, when she finished fourth in the Grade 2 John C Mabee, she probably wins here; because even though Madame Stripes (Arg) beat her to the wire that day, Insta Erma had the much more difficult trip.
So what if Insta Erma doesn't run to form? Well, if Thundering Sky can finally get a clean trip, then she probably has the best chance out of the three "C" Selections to get her picture taken; but in my opinion any of the three backups should be able to get the job done if Insta Erma decides not to run today.
RACE 8 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Hot Sean (ML 3-1)
# 4 Colonist (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Donworth (ML 9-5)
# 3 Grazen Sky (ML 5-1)
# 7 Mr. Opportunist (ML 12-1)
C's
# 5 Stormin Monarcho (ML 6-1)
# 6 Air Vice Marshall (ML 10-1)
# 6 Air Vice Marshall (ML 10-1)
Colonist drops the hood and gets off the lawn for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer; and both those move should help Colonist move up today. Hot Sean has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two starts, both at this class level. Donworth moves up in class after winning by as many as he wanted to last time out.
Grazen Sky should move up with the return to dirt. Mr. Opportunist got to the line almost four lengths ahead of Donworth last time out.
Stormin Monarcho took the Place at this class level two starts back; but Stormin Monarcho seems to be a need to lead type, and I'm not convinced that he can get the early lead in this field. Air Vice Marshall tries a Fast dirt track for the first time Monday; his works over the Del Mar main track suggest that he could improve with the surface change.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 11 Sunday Prophet (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Delectable (ML 9-2)
# 2 Gone to Town (ML 10-1)
# 4 Meal Ticket (ML 8-1)
# 6 Red Shelby (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 California Breeze (ML 10-1)
# 8 Starlet Storm (ML 8-1)
# 9 Beauty Divine (ML 12-1)
# 8 Starlet Storm (ML 8-1)
# 9 Beauty Divine (ML 12-1)
Sunday Prophet looks quickest here, and early speed has been holding up of late charging down the hill. Delectable showed some early foot competing at a flat mile; perhaps she'll move up on the downhill course.
Gone to Town was much improved last time out with the blinkers on. Meal Ticket has been on the bench for quite awhile; but the last time she ran, Meal Ticket took the Place at this class level. Red Shelby led most of the way on a flat mile the last time she competed.
California Breeze could improve with the turn back in distance. Starlet Storm and Beauty Divine are two that could improve with the move to the turf.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,8 with 4 with 1,4 with 11 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7,8 with 4 with 1,2,3,4,7 with 1,2,4,6,11 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 4 with 1,4 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 2,3,5 with 1,4 with 11 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 4 with 5,6 with 11 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 4 with 1,4 with 5,8,9 $6.00
Total: $70.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 14, 2018
1/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Five - Results
Race 5 - # 10 Touchdown U S C (Final Odds 2.30*) - "A "Selection
Race 6 - # 9 Bold Papa (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Show It N Moe It (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Kalookan Queen - # 2 Selcourt (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Astra - # 6 Plein Air (Ire) (7.30) - "C" Selection
Bold Papa finally got the job done in his thirteenth try, crossing under the wire more than three lengths in front of Place finisher # 8 Save Ground (3.70) to win Race 6. My initial inclination when preparing my tickets was to relegate Bold Papa to a backup role, since he had failed to graduate in so many prior attempts under similar conditions. But ultimately I decided to use Bold Papa on the big ticket; a decision that was proven correct. Unfortunately, in order to stay within budget, when I moved Bold Papa onto the big ticket, I moved Plein Air in the nightcap off the big ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 5 How Unusual (2.30*) - $364.65 Finish: 7th
# 10 Estrechada (Arg) (4.60) - $567.75 Finish: 4th
# 11 Evo Campo (Ire) (3.70) - $390.90 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of 10 / 9 / 7 / 2 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $780.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 9 Bold Papa (2.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 7 Show It N Moe It (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Kalookan Queen - # 2 Selcourt (3.20) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Astra - # 6 Plein Air (Ire) (7.30) - "C" Selection
Bold Papa finally got the job done in his thirteenth try, crossing under the wire more than three lengths in front of Place finisher # 8 Save Ground (3.70) to win Race 6. My initial inclination when preparing my tickets was to relegate Bold Papa to a backup role, since he had failed to graduate in so many prior attempts under similar conditions. But ultimately I decided to use Bold Papa on the big ticket; a decision that was proven correct. Unfortunately, in order to stay within budget, when I moved Bold Papa onto the big ticket, I moved Plein Air in the nightcap off the big ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the three runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 5 How Unusual (2.30*) - $364.65 Finish: 7th
# 10 Estrechada (Arg) (4.60) - $567.75 Finish: 4th
# 11 Evo Campo (Ire) (3.70) - $390.90 Finish: 2nd
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of 10 / 9 / 7 / 2 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $780.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Five - Preview
For those wondering, the switch to The Late Pick Five is because there is a carryover of $192,748 in that pool heading into Sunday's action in Arcadia. So with that pot of gold as motivation let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 5 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Touchdown U S C (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Dos Palos (ML 6-1)
# 4 Old School Ike (ML 5-1)
# 5 Gryffindor (ML 20-1)
# 4 Old School Ike (ML 5-1)
# 5 Gryffindor (ML 20-1)
# 6 Starship Chewy (ML 12-1)
# 11 Danny O (ML 4-1)
# 11 Danny O (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 7 Downhill Run (ML 50-1). Bring in # 11 Danny O (ML 4-1) from the Also Eligible List; but not # 12 Captain N. Barron (ML 12-1), who gets the day off.
Well, if you're gonna single, might as well do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way. Actually this isn't a pure single, for (as you can see) I'm using almost half the field on a backup ticket. In my opinion Touchdown U S A has a clear edge over the rest of this field. If Touchdown U S A runs anywhere close to her last time out, she wins here. However, if Touchdown U S A left her form at Del Mar, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, as I see no true standout among the other entrants.
RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Save Ground (ML 3-1)
# 10 Atonarun (ML 4-1)
# 10 Atonarun (ML 4-1)
B's
# 5 Schooley (ML 9-2)
# 6 Dial Me In (ML 9-2)
# 6 Dial Me In (ML 9-2)
# 9 Bold Papa (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 11 Tatar (ML 5-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Atonarun is the new shooter here, having run well enough in his debut charging down the hill back in May to suggest that the flat mile should suit him just fine. The rest are runners capable of winning at this level who have battled each other in the past without any showing definitive signs of wanting to be the leader of the pack. Bold Papa is the most talented of this group; but Bold Papa has shown a lot of signs that being the first one home is not for him. Even that time when he did cross under the wire first he didn't look comfortable with his position. So with the most talented runner in the field abdicating the position of leader, this race then becomes a contest among the rest as to which will be the least camera shy.
RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 50k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Show It N Moe It (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Twisted Rosie (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Carpathia (ML 12-1)
# 2 Family Girl (ML 3-1)
# 4 Carrie's Success (ML 6-1)
Show It N Moe It should improve with the return to dirt. Twisted Rosie could move up with the return to one turn racing. Likewise for Carpathia.
Sunday's distance may be too far for Family Girl to show her best; but Family Girl fits well here on class. Carrie's Success tries winners for the first time after closing well at Los Alamitos to graduate last time out.
RACE 8 - (F) The Kalookan Queen $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Princess Karen (ML 5-2)
B's
# 2 Selcourt (ML 9-5)
# 4 Cuddle Alert (ML 6-1)
# 4 Cuddle Alert (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Malibu Stacy (ML 6-1)
# 6 Reverse (ML 10-1)
# 6 Reverse (ML 10-1)
# 7 Cuyathy (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 8 Ashley's Secret (ML 50-1)
Princess Karen looks best here, and she should appreciate the class relief. Selcourt returns from an extended vacation, and any improvement she shows from natural maturation could make her tough to beat here. Cuddle Alert looks to be the one most likely to take advantage of any pace meltdown.
Malibu Stacy fits well here on class, but she may not be quick enough to keep up with this field. Reverse will be trying a Fast dirt for the first time; and while her morning works suggest that the surface switch will pose no problems, Reverse will have to run the race of her life to win here. Cuyathy was much the best wiring the field last time out; but she sure got away with some soft fractions in that contest.
RACE 9 - (F) The Astra $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 How Unusual (ML 7-2)
B's
# 10 Estrechada (Arg) (ML 7-2)
# 11 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Lucy De (ML 15-1)
# 2 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Plein Air (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Plein Air (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Scandal (ML 15-1)
How Unusual looks in good position to extend her current winning streak. Estrechada (Arg) and Evo Campo (Ire) both won Graded Stakes in 2017 at today's distance.
Lucy De shows a steadily improving form. Queen Blossom (Ire) should be forwardly placed early, which means less traffic to dodge late. Plein Air (Ire) seems to have found a suitable spot to make her North American debut.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 5 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 10 with 5,6,8,9,10 with 3,7 with 2,4,5 with 5,10,11 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,4,5,6,11 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 5 $5.00
$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 1,2,4 with 5 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 3,6,7 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6 $3.00
Total: $61.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:34 EST / 2:34 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 13, 2018
1/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 The Critical Way (Final Odds 12.60) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Chromium (13.00) - No Selection
Race 8 - The La Canada - # 4 Mopotism (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Theycallhimthekid (8.20) - "B" Selection
I mentioned in the preview that The Critical Way had the breeding to run well on the turf; so it's not beyond the realm of probability that better handicapping on my part would have made room for The Critical Way on the big ticket. But Chromium? There's no way I'm finding Chromium, no matter how big a shovel I use.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $6,417.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 Chromium (13.00) - No Selection
Race 8 - The La Canada - # 4 Mopotism (2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Theycallhimthekid (8.20) - "B" Selection
I mentioned in the preview that The Critical Way had the breeding to run well on the turf; so it's not beyond the realm of probability that better handicapping on my part would have made room for The Critical Way on the big ticket. But Chromium? There's no way I'm finding Chromium, no matter how big a shovel I use.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $6,417.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/13/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"By seeing the seed of failure in every success, we remain humble. By seeing seed of success in every failure we remain hopeful." - Paul Meyer
Saturday kicks off a three day holiday weekend in the United States, and Good Lord willing I'll be partaking of the action at Santa Anita each of those three days. Saturday's featured race is the Grade 2 La Canada; I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Zuri Chop (Fr) (Morning Line 4-1)
# 7 Moonlight Drive (Ity) (ML 7-2)
# 13 Rocket Fuel (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Doc Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 11 Clever Royal (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 The Critical Way (ML 20-1)
# 5 Reign On (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Conquest Daddyo (ML 15-1)
# 8 Secreto Primero (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 10 Elwood J (ML 15-1). Bring in # 13 Rocket Fuel (ML 12-1) off the Also Eligible list.
Zuri Chop (Fr) took the Place sprinting on the Del Mar turf against more expensive stock last time out. Zuri Chop was victorious the last time that he charged down the Santa Anita hill.
Moonlight Drive (Ity), Graded Stakes placed on the grass, is being priced to sell, and looks to be classiest here. Clever Royal and Rocket Fuel could be quickest here, and early speed has been playing well of late on this configuration. Doc Curlin has always run well down the hill.
The Critical Way tries the turf for the first time; and while Trainer Mick Ruis hasn't been successful of late putting his runners get on the lawn, The Critical Way has the breeding to suggest that he should run well here. Reign On (GB) and Secreto Primero filled out the Exacta sprinting at the $40 Claiming level recently. Conquest Daddyo could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Lambo Luxx (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 9 Fueled by Bourbon (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Pat the Bear (ML 8-1)
# 7 Private Prospect (ML 4-1)
Lambo Luxx comes off a win against more expensive last time out; and while it may seem odd for a runner to drop off a victory, the purse money between the two contests is not much different ($16k vs $14k total). Lambo Luxx has gotten his picture taken after three of his last six races, and Trainer Jack Carava tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Fueled by Bourbon may improve with the increase in real estate. Pat the Bear has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts. Private Prospect returns on less than a week's rest after having run in that contest for trainers with few California based horses last Sunday.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mopotism (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Majestic Heat (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Mended (ML 4-1)
Mopotism took the Show in the Grade 1 La Brea behind Unique Bella last time. Majestic Heat has won a pair of stakes since moving to the main track, including the Grade 2 Bayokoa. Mended is probably in over her head; but it's not easy to toss a horse with ten straight wins.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Coastline (ML 3-1)
# 9 General Ike (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Airlite (ML 10-1)
# 6 Theycallhimthekid (ML 4-1)
# 10 Johnny Reb (ML 5-1)
# 12 Particleacelerator (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Zapana's Game (ML 30-1)
# 3 Zeppo (ML 50-1)
# 5 Red Carpet Cat (ML 10-1)
# 7 Bourque (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rough Passage (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Highly Acclaimed (ML 15-1)
Coastline gets some significant class relief after disappointing last time out as the Post Time Favorite. General Ike took the Place against more expensive stock the only prior time that he charged down the hill.
Airlite fits well at this class level. Theycallhimthekid projects to be an early pace presence. Johnny Reb goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer after just missing the Winner's Circle by a nose last time out. Particleacelerator could improve with the return to Santa Anita.
The "C" Selections are everyone else, including the two nighttime Los Alamitos runners; because this one looks to me to be very wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 4 with 8,9 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,11,13 with 9,10 with 2,4 with 1,6,8,9,10,12 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,8 with 10 with 4 with 8,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 1,7 with 4 with 8,9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 3 with 8,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 4 with 2,3,5,7,11 $7.50
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday kicks off a three day holiday weekend in the United States, and Good Lord willing I'll be partaking of the action at Santa Anita each of those three days. Saturday's featured race is the Grade 2 La Canada; I'll be taking a look at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Zuri Chop (Fr) (Morning Line 4-1)
# 7 Moonlight Drive (Ity) (ML 7-2)
# 13 Rocket Fuel (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 2 Doc Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 11 Clever Royal (ML 6-1)
C's
# 4 The Critical Way (ML 20-1)
# 5 Reign On (GB) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Conquest Daddyo (ML 15-1)
# 8 Secreto Primero (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 10 Elwood J (ML 15-1). Bring in # 13 Rocket Fuel (ML 12-1) off the Also Eligible list.
Zuri Chop (Fr) took the Place sprinting on the Del Mar turf against more expensive stock last time out. Zuri Chop was victorious the last time that he charged down the Santa Anita hill.
Moonlight Drive (Ity), Graded Stakes placed on the grass, is being priced to sell, and looks to be classiest here. Clever Royal and Rocket Fuel could be quickest here, and early speed has been playing well of late on this configuration. Doc Curlin has always run well down the hill.
The Critical Way tries the turf for the first time; and while Trainer Mick Ruis hasn't been successful of late putting his runners get on the lawn, The Critical Way has the breeding to suggest that he should run well here. Reign On (GB) and Secreto Primero filled out the Exacta sprinting at the $40 Claiming level recently. Conquest Daddyo could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Lambo Luxx (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 9 Fueled by Bourbon (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Pat the Bear (ML 8-1)
# 7 Private Prospect (ML 4-1)
Lambo Luxx comes off a win against more expensive last time out; and while it may seem odd for a runner to drop off a victory, the purse money between the two contests is not much different ($16k vs $14k total). Lambo Luxx has gotten his picture taken after three of his last six races, and Trainer Jack Carava tends to do well when placing his last out winners.
Fueled by Bourbon may improve with the increase in real estate. Pat the Bear has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his last two starts. Private Prospect returns on less than a week's rest after having run in that contest for trainers with few California based horses last Sunday.
RACE 8 - (F) The La Canada (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mopotism (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Majestic Heat (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Mended (ML 4-1)
Mopotism took the Show in the Grade 1 La Brea behind Unique Bella last time. Majestic Heat has won a pair of stakes since moving to the main track, including the Grade 2 Bayokoa. Mended is probably in over her head; but it's not easy to toss a horse with ten straight wins.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Coastline (ML 3-1)
# 9 General Ike (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Airlite (ML 10-1)
# 6 Theycallhimthekid (ML 4-1)
# 10 Johnny Reb (ML 5-1)
# 12 Particleacelerator (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Zapana's Game (ML 30-1)
# 3 Zeppo (ML 50-1)
# 5 Red Carpet Cat (ML 10-1)
# 7 Bourque (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rough Passage (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Highly Acclaimed (ML 15-1)
Coastline gets some significant class relief after disappointing last time out as the Post Time Favorite. General Ike took the Place against more expensive stock the only prior time that he charged down the hill.
Airlite fits well at this class level. Theycallhimthekid projects to be an early pace presence. Johnny Reb goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer after just missing the Winner's Circle by a nose last time out. Particleacelerator could improve with the return to Santa Anita.
The "C" Selections are everyone else, including the two nighttime Los Alamitos runners; because this one looks to me to be very wide open.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 4 with 8,9 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,7,11,13 with 9,10 with 2,4 with 1,6,8,9,10,12 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,8 with 10 with 4 with 8,9 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 1,7 with 4 with 8,9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 3 with 8,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7,13 with 10 with 4 with 2,3,5,7,11 $7.50
Total: $86.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 7, 2018
1/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Overcomer (Final Odds 13.40) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Mongolian Shopper (9.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Ynez - # 8 Midnight Bisou (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Red Livy (Ire) (1.30*) - "A" Selection
When you completely whiff on half the sequence, you know it wasn't a good day. With the benefit of twenty / twenty hindsight, a decent case could be made to have included Overcomer in my play based on the class drop. On the other hand, Mongolian Shopper is a much harder find, as typically those whose success comes primarily from one turn sprints tend to run out of gas before the wire when charging down the Santa Anita hill. But Mongolian Shopper had no problems with stamina Sunday, leading the field down the hill and pulling away in the stretch to win the second leg.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 2 / 8 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $650.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Mongolian Shopper (9.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Santa Ynez - # 8 Midnight Bisou (1.80) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Red Livy (Ire) (1.30*) - "A" Selection
When you completely whiff on half the sequence, you know it wasn't a good day. With the benefit of twenty / twenty hindsight, a decent case could be made to have included Overcomer in my play based on the class drop. On the other hand, Mongolian Shopper is a much harder find, as typically those whose success comes primarily from one turn sprints tend to run out of gas before the wire when charging down the Santa Anita hill. But Mongolian Shopper had no problems with stamina Sunday, leading the field down the hill and pulling away in the stretch to win the second leg.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 2 / 8 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $650.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 2 Santa Ynez is Sunday's featured race in Arcadia, as sophomore fillies take some early steps on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. I'll be taking a look at the Santa Ynez below as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Clm $10k B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Rim Ditch (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 5-2)
# 6 Winning Causeway (ML 6-1)
C's
# 12 Indavidualist (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Chin Tu (ML 50-1) and # 11 Proud Zoning (ML 50-1)
This contest is restricted to trainers with twenty or fewer horses in their care in California. So don't think this is for small trainers only; as this race is also conditioned to draw shippers from trainers who have large stables outside of the state of California.
This is one of the race conditions that The Stronach Group, the owners of Santa Anita Park (and Golden Gate Fields, and Gulfstream Park, and, well, others) said that they were bringing to the track in an effort to increase the horse racing population in the state. Will it serve that purpose? Well, I'll let time be the judge of that. For now, speaking as a horse player, I see a race with a full competitive field; and I'm all for that.
Airfoil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six contests, all at this approximate class level. Rim Ditch may find six furlongs to be a bridge too far; but if Rim Ditch can hold on 'til the wire, he just might get his picture taken today. Also note that Rim Ditch ran one of his best races in quite some time last time out, while also running for the first time in quite some time without front leg wraps. Perhaps that's just a coincidence; perhaps not.
Lewys Vaporizer is getting significant class relief here, and should be an early pace presence, if not indeed the leader of the pack. Winning Causeway is two-for-six lifetime on the Turf and one-for-sixteen lifetime elsewhere; since today's contest is elsewhere, it would appear that Winning Causeway is misplaced. But Winning Causeway has proven to be competitive on the dirt at this class level, and is therefore worthy of consideration. Indavidualist has run well over this main track in the past.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
# 5 Snow Chief (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Allsquare (ML 8-1)
# 7 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Del Mar Ann (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 6 - Clm $10k B - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Airfoil (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 4 Rim Ditch (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 5-2)
# 6 Winning Causeway (ML 6-1)
C's
# 12 Indavidualist (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 9 Chin Tu (ML 50-1) and # 11 Proud Zoning (ML 50-1)
This contest is restricted to trainers with twenty or fewer horses in their care in California. So don't think this is for small trainers only; as this race is also conditioned to draw shippers from trainers who have large stables outside of the state of California.
This is one of the race conditions that The Stronach Group, the owners of Santa Anita Park (and Golden Gate Fields, and Gulfstream Park, and, well, others) said that they were bringing to the track in an effort to increase the horse racing population in the state. Will it serve that purpose? Well, I'll let time be the judge of that. For now, speaking as a horse player, I see a race with a full competitive field; and I'm all for that.
Airfoil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six contests, all at this approximate class level. Rim Ditch may find six furlongs to be a bridge too far; but if Rim Ditch can hold on 'til the wire, he just might get his picture taken today. Also note that Rim Ditch ran one of his best races in quite some time last time out, while also running for the first time in quite some time without front leg wraps. Perhaps that's just a coincidence; perhaps not.
Lewys Vaporizer is getting significant class relief here, and should be an early pace presence, if not indeed the leader of the pack. Winning Causeway is two-for-six lifetime on the Turf and one-for-sixteen lifetime elsewhere; since today's contest is elsewhere, it would appear that Winning Causeway is misplaced. But Winning Causeway has proven to be competitive on the dirt at this class level, and is therefore worthy of consideration. Indavidualist has run well over this main track in the past.
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
# 5 Snow Chief (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B’s
# 6 Allsquare (ML 8-1)
# 7 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Del Mar Ann (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Girl Downstairs fits well here on class; now it's just a question as to how she'll handle the hill. Snow Chief (Ire) took the Show charging down the hill last time out against classier competition.
Allsquare took the Place against less expensive stock charging down the hill last time out. Peace Cove (NZ) goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such. Del Mar Ann has run well in the past charging down the hill.
RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Ynez (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 War Heroine (ML 4-1)
# 8 Midnight Bisou (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 6 Yesterday's News (ML 8-1)
# 7 Win the War (ML 8-1)
# 7 Win the War (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Artistic Diva (ML 6-1)
War Heroine made it look easy in her debut last time out, winning by as many as she wanted. Midnight Bisou has twice lost to Dream Tree by a nose, and moves up just by virtue of not having to face that rival again today.
Yesterday's News took the Place behind Dream Tree in the Grade 1 Starlet last time out. Win the War ships in from north of the border for Trainer Make Casse. If Win the War can transfer her synthetic form to real dirt, then she can be a real contender here.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 10 Red Livy (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Lookinforadanger (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liar's Smoker (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Rosie My Rosie (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fruity (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Sturdy One (ML 5-1). Bring in # 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list; but don't bring in # 13 Miss Boom Boom (ML 9-2) nor # 14 Kennedie Sky (ML 20-1), as they are both scratched.
Red Livy (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time that she charged down the hill. Lookinforadanger, ambitiously placed last time out, could improve at a more realistic class level for her talent. Liar's Smoker showed good tactical speed last time out, and has been working well for her return off the freshening.
Rosie My Rosie, one-for-fourteen lifetime on the grass, fits well here on class, though this may not be an ideal placing for her. Fruity (Ire) could improve with the return to turf. Gemini Journey took the Show against classier competition the last time that she charged down the hill.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,10 with 1,5,6,7,11 with 5,8 with 1,9,10 $60.00
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 2,11,12 $6.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
A’s
# 10 Red Livy (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Lookinforadanger (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liar's Smoker (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Rosie My Rosie (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fruity (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Sturdy One (ML 5-1). Bring in # 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list; but don't bring in # 13 Miss Boom Boom (ML 9-2) nor # 14 Kennedie Sky (ML 20-1), as they are both scratched.
Red Livy (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time that she charged down the hill. Lookinforadanger, ambitiously placed last time out, could improve at a more realistic class level for her talent. Liar's Smoker showed good tactical speed last time out, and has been working well for her return off the freshening.
Rosie My Rosie, one-for-fourteen lifetime on the grass, fits well here on class, though this may not be an ideal placing for her. Fruity (Ire) could improve with the return to turf. Gemini Journey took the Show against classier competition the last time that she charged down the hill.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,10 with 1,5,6,7,11 with 5,8 with 1,9,10 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 2,11,12 $6.00
Total: $74.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 6, 2018
1/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Sapphire Kid (Final Odds 5.40) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Pica (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Instant Reflex (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Pica, the winner of the third leg, wasn't too many dollars away from being the public's top choice in that contest. So considering Saturday's sequence very nearly contained three Post Time Favorites, the fact that it paid as well as it did is something for which to be grateful. Of course, it's also evidence that the sequence was perhaps not nearly as difficult as I had originally imagined; but no need to go into that.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Beau Square (9.20) - $458.00 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Cash Prize (5.70) - $412.10 Finish: 5th
# 7 Phantom Proton (10.90) - $857.15 Finish: 9th
# 8 C. C. Zip (6.60) - $383.50 Finish: 11th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 10 which paid $145.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $74.40 on my initial $71.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.04-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The San Gabriel - # 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (2.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 8 Pica (3.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Instant Reflex (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Pica, the winner of the third leg, wasn't too many dollars away from being the public's top choice in that contest. So considering Saturday's sequence very nearly contained three Post Time Favorites, the fact that it paid as well as it did is something for which to be grateful. Of course, it's also evidence that the sequence was perhaps not nearly as difficult as I had originally imagined; but no need to go into that.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 4 Beau Square (9.20) - $458.00 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Cash Prize (5.70) - $412.10 Finish: 5th
# 7 Phantom Proton (10.90) - $857.15 Finish: 9th
# 8 C. C. Zip (6.60) - $383.50 Finish: 11th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 8 / 8 / 10 which paid $145.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $74.40 on my initial $71.50 investment, or approximate odds of 1.04-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Wintry weather continues to cause havoc on North American thoroughbred racing; but in Southern California the track is Fast and the turf is Firm, so that's where I'll be keeping my action this weekend. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Karmic Affinity (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 3 Dee Way to Go (ML 15-1)
# 6 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sapphire Kid (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Impecunious (ML 7-2)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 4-1)
While neither her pedigree nor her connections suggest that Karmic Affinity will be firing at first asking, Karmic Affinity has been working lights out for her debut here. Of course, you always have to be cautious when using a first time starter in a Maiden Claiming contest, especially one that was purchased at auction for more than the tag she that has on her head today. After all, it's fair to reason, if Karmic Affinity is so good, why are her connections so willing to let her go at a loss without having ever seen her compete? But with that said, I think the quality of this field suggests that a first time runner should do well; and Karmic Affinity certainly looks ready to roll.
Dee Way to Go, Whatyouciswhatuget, and Sapphire Kid all ran well this past Summer before being shut down. If any of the three can pick up where they left off before going on the shelf, then they can win here.
Impecunious, one of several here running first time for a tag, could improve with the move to real dirt. Super Patriot, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to have done her best racing on the turf going around two turns (and, yes, charging down the Santa Anita hill involves going around two turns), so she may not be a good fit in a dirt sprint; but a Baffert runner dropping in for a tag for the first time always deserves at least some consideration.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Isotherm (ML 7-2)
# 7 He Will (ML 4-1)
# 9 Free Rose (ML 10-1)
Itsinthepost (Fr) can win from anywhere, and should improve off the freshening. Flamboyant (Fr), winner of this event back in 2016, seems to be rounding nicely into form.
Isotherm won the Grade 2 San Marcos over this turf course the last time that he competed on the lawn. He Will could improve with the increase in real estate. Free Rose should be prominent early, and might get a nice stalking trip.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scathing (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 8 Pica (ML 7-2)
# 9 Devil's Beauty (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Kiss My Lulu (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sea Myrtle (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pashalitsa (ML 8-1)
Scathing was a clear winner last time out, and has run well in the past over this main track. Devil's Beauty and Pica were separated by just a length at the wire last time out with a higher price tag on their respective heads.
Kiss My Lulu could improve with the return to real dirt. Sea Myrtle could move up with the return to one turn racing. Pashalitsa has run well in the past when making the seven furlong trip.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Cash Prize (ML 6-1)
# 10 Instant Reflex (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Beau Square (ML 5-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 15-1)
# 8 C. C. Zip (ML 6-1)
C's
# 9 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rooms (ML 20-1)
# 12 Salten Sapity (ML 8-1)
RACE 6 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Karmic Affinity (Morning Line 6-1)
B's
# 3 Dee Way to Go (ML 15-1)
# 6 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sapphire Kid (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Impecunious (ML 7-2)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 4-1)
While neither her pedigree nor her connections suggest that Karmic Affinity will be firing at first asking, Karmic Affinity has been working lights out for her debut here. Of course, you always have to be cautious when using a first time starter in a Maiden Claiming contest, especially one that was purchased at auction for more than the tag she that has on her head today. After all, it's fair to reason, if Karmic Affinity is so good, why are her connections so willing to let her go at a loss without having ever seen her compete? But with that said, I think the quality of this field suggests that a first time runner should do well; and Karmic Affinity certainly looks ready to roll.
Dee Way to Go, Whatyouciswhatuget, and Sapphire Kid all ran well this past Summer before being shut down. If any of the three can pick up where they left off before going on the shelf, then they can win here.
Impecunious, one of several here running first time for a tag, could improve with the move to real dirt. Super Patriot, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to have done her best racing on the turf going around two turns (and, yes, charging down the Santa Anita hill involves going around two turns), so she may not be a good fit in a dirt sprint; but a Baffert runner dropping in for a tag for the first time always deserves at least some consideration.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)
B's
# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Isotherm (ML 7-2)
# 7 He Will (ML 4-1)
# 9 Free Rose (ML 10-1)
Itsinthepost (Fr) can win from anywhere, and should improve off the freshening. Flamboyant (Fr), winner of this event back in 2016, seems to be rounding nicely into form.
Isotherm won the Grade 2 San Marcos over this turf course the last time that he competed on the lawn. He Will could improve with the increase in real estate. Free Rose should be prominent early, and might get a nice stalking trip.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Scathing (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 8 Pica (ML 7-2)
# 9 Devil's Beauty (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Kiss My Lulu (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sea Myrtle (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pashalitsa (ML 8-1)
Scathing was a clear winner last time out, and has run well in the past over this main track. Devil's Beauty and Pica were separated by just a length at the wire last time out with a higher price tag on their respective heads.
Kiss My Lulu could improve with the return to real dirt. Sea Myrtle could move up with the return to one turn racing. Pashalitsa has run well in the past when making the seven furlong trip.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 6 Cash Prize (ML 6-1)
# 10 Instant Reflex (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Beau Square (ML 5-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 15-1)
# 8 C. C. Zip (ML 6-1)
C's
# 9 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rooms (ML 20-1)
# 12 Salten Sapity (ML 8-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Mongolian Shopper (ML 4-1) and # 14 Tweeting (ML 8-1)
Cash Prize has proven competitive at this class level, and has run well in the past charging down the hill. Instant Relex took the Show in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy two starts back.
Beau Square took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit on the flats at Del Mar. Phantom Proton could improve off the freshening. C. C. Zip was victorious in her only prior try charging down the hill.
Siberian Iris (Ire) and Rooms each try the hill for the first time, both having done well previously on the flats. Salten Sapity graduated over this turf course two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8,11 with 1,8 with 4,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,10 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 6,7,9 with 4 with 6,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 1,2,7 with 6,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 9,11,12 $1.50
Total: $71.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, January 1, 2018
1/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Ax Man (Final Odds 1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Joe Hernandez - # 2 Pee Wee Reese (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Utah Ute (9.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Shazara (20.70) - No Selection
For a few moments there, it looked like 2018 was going to be kicked off on a winning note; but # 8 How About Zero (2.10*) ran out of gas just a bit too soon, and got nipped on the line in the final leg by # 1 Shazara.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 4 Antonina (Per) (29.40) - $ 1,252.45 Finish: 10th
# 6 Sasini (GB) (7.80) - $368.15 Finish: 8th
# 7 Ms Wakaya (20.70) - $909.10 Finish: 5th
# 8 How About Zero (2.10*) - $141.35 Finish: 2nd
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (2.70) - $169.05 Finish: 4th
# 10 Be Mine (3.60) - $183.85 Finish: 6th
Had How About Zero held on to win, the above payout would have been trebled, as I would have cashed to "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 2 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1,093.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Joe Hernandez - # 2 Pee Wee Reese (2.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Utah Ute (9.10) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Shazara (20.70) - No Selection
For a few moments there, it looked like 2018 was going to be kicked off on a winning note; but # 8 How About Zero (2.10*) ran out of gas just a bit too soon, and got nipped on the line in the final leg by # 1 Shazara.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the six runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 4 Antonina (Per) (29.40) - $ 1,252.45 Finish: 10th
# 6 Sasini (GB) (7.80) - $368.15 Finish: 8th
# 7 Ms Wakaya (20.70) - $909.10 Finish: 5th
# 8 How About Zero (2.10*) - $141.35 Finish: 2nd
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (2.70) - $169.05 Finish: 4th
# 10 Be Mine (3.60) - $183.85 Finish: 6th
Had How About Zero held on to win, the above payout would have been trebled, as I would have cashed to "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 2 / 6 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1,093.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You're doing things you've never done before, and more importantly, you're doing something." - Neil Gaiman
Happy New Year everyone; and Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. While the year is beginning the weekend is ending; and I'll be finishing up where I began, at Santa Anita. The featured race Monday in Arcadia is the $75k Joe Hernandez, a charge down the hill for runners four years old and upward. I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ax Man (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Shanghai Billy (ML 3-1)
# 8 More Honor (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Italian (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elevated Knight (ML 8-1)
Ax Man, a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, must have an interesting backstory; at least, that's how it seems looking at his workout history. Ax Man was working well at Los Alamitos this Summer when he was shut down after a fine July 7 workout. Ax Man then goes back on the work tab at Los Al in November, where he's again working well; which, well, is what you would expect from a two year old Baffert trainee.
So why didn't Ax Man make his debut at Los Al? Well, and I'm just guessing here, I would say something happened either during or after that November 24 workout. Notice that, even though the Los Al thoroughbred meet is still in progress, Ax Man gets moved to Santa Anita; and his next work, on December 2, his first at Santa Anita, is, to be kind, not good. Maybe they went easy on him because they were concerned that he may have re-injured himself; or maybe he just had to get something that wasn't right out of his system. But it does show why Ax Man didn't debut during the Los Al meet in December.
After that December 2 "work", things appear to get serious; as we see Ax Man back on the track at Santa Anita just five days later with a bullet work; and then, the very next day (!) Ax Man is working out again, this time from the gate. In an era where workouts tend to be very evenly spaced, every seven days, that's some old school stuff Baffert was laying on this juvenile.
So with all that, I have to presume that Ax Man is ready to roll in his debut Monday; which is the primary reason why I'll be using him as a big ticket single. The other reason why Ax Man gets singled on the big ticket is because, in my opinion, there's no clear second choice behind Ax Man in this field; so it would either be use one or use five (or more).
Shanghai Billy, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, is the only experienced runner that I'll be using in my play in this leg. The other three "C" Selections are first time starters who can be expected to do well based upon breeding and/or connections. But in my opinion this race goes through Ax Man; and while I expect Ax Man to be a very short price, I just don't see the point of expanding the cost of this play in an effort to beat him.
RACE 7 - The Joe Hernandez $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 3-1)
# 8 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
Happy New Year everyone; and Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. While the year is beginning the weekend is ending; and I'll be finishing up where I began, at Santa Anita. The featured race Monday in Arcadia is the $75k Joe Hernandez, a charge down the hill for runners four years old and upward. I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Ax Man (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 5 Shanghai Billy (ML 3-1)
# 8 More Honor (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Italian (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elevated Knight (ML 8-1)
Ax Man, a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, must have an interesting backstory; at least, that's how it seems looking at his workout history. Ax Man was working well at Los Alamitos this Summer when he was shut down after a fine July 7 workout. Ax Man then goes back on the work tab at Los Al in November, where he's again working well; which, well, is what you would expect from a two year old Baffert trainee.
So why didn't Ax Man make his debut at Los Al? Well, and I'm just guessing here, I would say something happened either during or after that November 24 workout. Notice that, even though the Los Al thoroughbred meet is still in progress, Ax Man gets moved to Santa Anita; and his next work, on December 2, his first at Santa Anita, is, to be kind, not good. Maybe they went easy on him because they were concerned that he may have re-injured himself; or maybe he just had to get something that wasn't right out of his system. But it does show why Ax Man didn't debut during the Los Al meet in December.
After that December 2 "work", things appear to get serious; as we see Ax Man back on the track at Santa Anita just five days later with a bullet work; and then, the very next day (!) Ax Man is working out again, this time from the gate. In an era where workouts tend to be very evenly spaced, every seven days, that's some old school stuff Baffert was laying on this juvenile.
So with all that, I have to presume that Ax Man is ready to roll in his debut Monday; which is the primary reason why I'll be using him as a big ticket single. The other reason why Ax Man gets singled on the big ticket is because, in my opinion, there's no clear second choice behind Ax Man in this field; so it would either be use one or use five (or more).
Shanghai Billy, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, is the only experienced runner that I'll be using in my play in this leg. The other three "C" Selections are first time starters who can be expected to do well based upon breeding and/or connections. But in my opinion this race goes through Ax Man; and while I expect Ax Man to be a very short price, I just don't see the point of expanding the cost of this play in an effort to beat him.
RACE 7 - The Joe Hernandez $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 3-1)
# 8 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Mr. Roary (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tribalist (ML 9-2)
# 7 Om (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tribalist (ML 9-2)
# 7 Om (ML 7-2)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Smokey Image (ML 15-1), #12 Sycamore Lane (ML 15-1), and #13 Conquest Daddyo (ML 20-1)
Pee Wee Reese, winner of the Grade 2 American two starts back, was a winner in his only prior try charging down the Santa Anita hill. Richard's Boy, Place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, has down well in the past competing down the hill. The "C" Selections, Mr. Roary, Tribalist, and Om, filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Eddie D over this course back in September.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - OC 40k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
# 7 Royal Bar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1)
# 9 Treasure Hunter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Royal Bar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1)
# 9 Treasure Hunter (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)
# 12 For Him (ML 8-1)
This contest is an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, and it's written as follows: first requirement is the three year old must have started for a claiming price of $50k or less. That's the Starter Allowance provision. After that hurdle is cleared, it's an N2L Optional Claimer; if your horse has just one victory, then it runs without fear of being claimed. More than one lifetime Win, and he runs with a $40k price tag on his head. For the record, # 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1), # 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1), and # 11 Ima Take Charge (ML 8-1) are the three runners in this contest with more than one visit to the Winner's Circle, and therefore eligible to be claimed.
Utah Ute goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such. Treasure Hunter, Royal Trump, and Royal Bar filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta in an OC 50k at Del Mar back in November.
Get Em Up Scout may be outclassed here; but I think Get Em Up Scout ran well enough last time out to merit strong consideration here. Zippy Groom graduated over this main track last time out with ease, albeit while going around two turns. For Him could move up with the cutback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 How About Zero (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Antonia (Per) (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sasini (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ms Wakaya (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Be Mine (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Bombilate (ML 3-1), # 12 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 6-1), # 13 Hacktivism (ML 8-1), and # 14 Achira (ML 12-1)
How About Zero gets some much needed class relief. Antonia (Per) could benefit greatly from the cutback in distance. Sasini (GB) seems a notch below many here; but Sasini could find herself with a nice trip, getting first run at the leaders turning for home. Ms Wakaya was a clear winner the last time that she competed on the lawn.
The Tulip (Ire) is making her first North American start, and she seems well meant here. Be Mine has disappointed three times in her seven race career as the Post Time Favorite; not exactly a stellar recommendation, but the talent to win at this level is certainly there.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 1,6,7,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,9,10 $30.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,8,9,10 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,5,7 with 6 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 3,12 with 8 $2.00
Total: $39.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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