Saturday, January 20, 2018

1/20/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 3 Las Cienegas, a six and a half furlong charge down the hill for fillies and mares, is the featured race on Saturday's card at Santa Anita.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Angelina's Heaven (Morning Line 20-1)
# 5 Sauce On Side (ML 2-1)

B’s

# 1 Lady Phyllis (ML 4-1)
# 3 Empress of Love (ML 4-1)
# 6 Tinabud (ML 3-1)
# 7 Winsinfashion (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 2 Baytown Juliet (ML 20-1)

This contest is a actually an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid; but since no one is in for the tag, I've dropped the Optional Claiming piece above.  So any three year old filly that has ever started for a claiming price of $50k or less, and has only visited the Winner's Circle once in her career, is eligible to run here.

Angelina's Heaven closed well last time out into fractions that weren't all that quick.  Sauce On Side closed well to graduate by a comfortable margin last time out.  Lady Phyllis and Empress of Love are a pair of class droppers who could move up facing weaker company.  Tinabud graduated by daylight last time out despite a less than smooth trip.  Winsinfashion graduated by as many as she wanted the last time that she routed on a dirt track.  And that's the full field of six, so the big ticket will be hitting the "ALL" button.

RACE 7 - (F) The Las Cienegas (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Coniah (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Proper Discretion (ML 10-1)

C's

# 2 Bendable (ML 5-2)
# 6 Anita Partner (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 7-2)

Scratch # 3 Angel Allie (ML 8-1) and # 7 Miss Southern Miss (ML 12-1)

Coniah took the Place over a length ahead of Anita Partner (Ire) in the Grade 2 Monrovia the last time these two charged down the Santa Anita hill.  Proper Discretion projects to be a pace presence early; perhaps Proper Discretion will be quick enough to take them all the way home.

Bendable is a Graded Stakes winner on the dirt; if Bendable can carry that form onto the lawn she'll be tough to handle here.  Beau Recall (Ire) could be the one running best late.

RACE 8 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Gosofar (ML 2-1)
# 4 Rocky's Show (ML 4-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 3 Jay Makes Us Laugh (ML 8-1)
# 8 Traffic Ticket (ML 6-1)


Rocky's Show looks to be the quickest here, and projects as the one that they'll have to catch to win.  Gosofar may be the most talented runner here; but Gosofar seems to settle for too many minor awards.

Jay Makes Us Laugh seems to do well with these short distances.  Traffic Ticket could improve with the return to California.

RACE 9 - OC 62.5k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 Tribal Fighter (ML 4-1)
# 7 Eric the Trojan (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Anatolian Heat (ML 7-2)
# 8 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Semper Fortis (ML 8-1)
# 6 Conquest Tsunami (ML 4-1)

Eric the Trojan, Tribal Fighter, and Anatolian Heat filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta the last time that they charged down the Santa Anita hill together.  Ronald R (Ire) is making his North American debut, and seems to fit well here on class.

Semper Fortis is trying grass for the first time; Semper Fortis' breeding suggests that he'll do well with the surface switch.  Conquest Tsunami, shipping in from Woodbine, projects to be a pace presence early, and may be able to hang in there late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 5,7 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 1,7 with 2,4 with 1,5,7,8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 2,6,9 with 2,4 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 3,8 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 1 with 2,4 with 3,6 $4.00

Total: $76.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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