1/7/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The Grade 2 Santa Ynez is Sunday's featured race in Arcadia, as sophomore fillies take some early steps on the road to the Kentucky Oaks.  I'll be taking a look at the Santa Ynez below as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $10k B - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Airfoil (Morning Line 3-1)

B's

# 4 Rim Ditch (ML 12-1)
# 5 Lewys Vaporizer (ML 5-2)
# 6 Winning Causeway (ML 6-1)

C's

# 12 Indavidualist (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 9 Chin Tu (ML 50-1) and # 11 Proud Zoning (ML 50-1)

This contest is restricted to trainers with twenty or fewer horses in their care in California.  So don't think this is for small trainers only; as this race is also conditioned to draw shippers from trainers who have large stables outside of the state of California.

This is one of the race conditions that The Stronach Group, the owners of Santa Anita Park (and Golden Gate Fields, and Gulfstream Park, and, well, others) said that they were bringing to the track in an effort to increase the horse racing population in the state.  Will it serve that purpose?  Well, I'll let time be the judge of that.  For now, speaking as a horse player, I see a race with a full competitive field; and I'm all for that.

Airfoil has finished in the Exacta in each of his last six contests, all at this approximate class level.  Rim Ditch may find six furlongs to be a bridge too far; but if Rim Ditch can hold on 'til the wire, he just might get his picture taken today.  Also note that Rim Ditch ran one of his best races in quite some time last time out, while also running for the first time in quite some time without front leg wraps.  Perhaps that's just a coincidence; perhaps not.

Lewys Vaporizer is getting significant class relief here, and should be an early pace presence, if not indeed the leader of the pack.  Winning Causeway is two-for-six lifetime on the Turf and one-for-sixteen lifetime elsewhere; since today's contest is elsewhere, it would appear that Winning Causeway is misplaced.  But Winning Causeway has proven to be competitive on the dirt at this class level, and is therefore worthy of consideration.  Indavidualist has run well over this main track in the past.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 1 Girl Downstairs (ML 5-1)
# 5 Snow Chief (Ire) (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 6 Allsquare (ML 8-1)
# 7 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 9-2)
# 11 Del Mar Ann (ML 5-1)

C's

None

Girl Downstairs fits well here on class; now it's just a question as to how she'll handle the hill.  Snow Chief (Ire) took the Show charging down the hill last time out against classier competition.

Allsquare took the Place against less expensive stock charging down the hill last time out.  Peace Cove (NZ) goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such.  Del Mar Ann has run well in the past charging down the hill.

RACE 8 - (F) The Santa Ynez (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 War Heroine (ML 4-1)

# 8 Midnight Bisou (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 6 Yesterday's News (ML 8-1)
# 7 Win the War (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Artistic Diva (ML 6-1)

War Heroine made it look easy in her debut last time out, winning by as many as she wanted.  Midnight Bisou has twice lost to Dream Tree by a nose, and moves up just by virtue of not having to face that rival again today.

Yesterday's News took the Place behind Dream Tree in the Grade 1 Starlet last time out.  Win the War ships in from north of the border for Trainer Make Casse.  If Win the War can transfer her synthetic form to real dirt, then she can be a real contender here.

RACE 9 - (F) Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 10 Red Livy (Ire) (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 1 Lookinforadanger (ML 15-1)
# 9 Liar's Smoker (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Rosie My Rosie (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fruity (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 3 Sturdy One (ML 5-1).  Bring in # 12 Gemini Journey (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list; but don't bring in # 13 Miss Boom Boom (ML 9-2) nor # 14 Kennedie Sky (ML 20-1), as they are both scratched.

Red Livy (Ire) took the Place at this class level the last time that she charged down the hill.  Lookinforadanger, ambitiously placed last time out, could improve at a more realistic class level for her talent.  Liar's Smoker showed good tactical speed last time out, and has been working well for her return off the freshening.

Rosie My Rosie, one-for-fourteen lifetime on the grass, fits well here on class, though this may not be an ideal placing for her.  Fruity (Ire) could improve with the return to turf.  Gemini Journey took the Show against classier competition the last time that she charged down the hill.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5,6,10 with 1,5,6,7,11 with 5,8 with 1,9,10 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 12 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 6,7 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,5 with 5,8 with 2,11,12 $6.00

Total: $74.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo