1/1/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You're doing things you've never done before, and more importantly, you're doing something." - Neil Gaiman

Happy New Year everyone; and Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds.  While the year is beginning the weekend is ending; and I'll be finishing up where I began, at Santa Anita.  The featured race Monday in Arcadia is the $75k Joe Hernandez, a charge down the hill for runners four years old and upward.  I'll be looking at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Ax Man (ML 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 5 Shanghai Billy (ML 3-1)
# 8 More Honor (ML 8-1)
# 9 The Italian (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elevated Knight (ML 8-1)

Ax Man, a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert, must have an interesting backstory; at least, that's how it seems looking at his workout history.  Ax Man was working well at Los Alamitos this Summer when he was shut down after a fine July 7 workout.  Ax Man then goes back on the work tab at Los Al in November, where he's again working well; which, well, is what you would expect from a two year old Baffert trainee.

So why didn't Ax Man make his debut at Los Al?  Well, and I'm just guessing here, I would say something happened either during or after that November 24 workout.  Notice that, even though the Los Al thoroughbred meet is still in progress, Ax Man gets moved to Santa Anita; and his next work, on December 2, his first at Santa Anita, is, to be kind, not good.  Maybe they went easy on him because they were concerned that he may have re-injured himself; or maybe he just had to get something that wasn't right out of his system.  But it does show why Ax Man didn't debut during the Los Al meet in December.

After that December 2 "work", things appear to get serious; as we see Ax Man back on the track at Santa Anita just five days later with a bullet work; and then, the very next day (!) Ax Man is working out again, this time from the gate.  In an era where workouts tend to be very evenly spaced, every seven days, that's some old school stuff Baffert was laying on this juvenile.

So with all that, I have to presume that Ax Man is ready to roll in his debut Monday; which is the primary reason why I'll be using him as a big ticket single.  The other reason why Ax Man gets singled on the big ticket is because, in my opinion, there's no clear second choice behind Ax Man in this field; so it would either be use one or use five (or more).

Shanghai Billy, who took the Show at this class level in his debut last time out, is the only experienced runner that I'll be using in my play in this leg.  The other three "C" Selections are first time starters who can be expected to do well based upon breeding and/or connections.  But in my opinion this race goes through Ax Man; and while I expect Ax Man to be a very short price, I just don't see the point of expanding the cost of this play in an effort to beat him.

RACE 7 - The Joe Hernandez $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Pee Wee Reese (ML 3-1)
# 8 Richard's Boy (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 4 Mr. Roary (ML 10-1)
# 5 Tribalist (ML 9-2)
# 7 Om (ML 7-2)

Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Smokey Image (ML 15-1), #12 Sycamore Lane (ML 15-1), and #13 Conquest Daddyo (ML 20-1)

Pee Wee Reese, winner of the Grade 2 American two starts back, was a winner in his only prior try charging down the Santa Anita hill.  Richard's Boy, Place finisher in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, has down well in the past competing down the hill.  The "C" Selections, Mr. Roary, Tribalist, and Om, filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 3 Eddie D over this course back in September.

RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - OC 40k/N2L  - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 1 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
# 7 Royal Bar (ML 6-1)
# 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1)
# 9 Treasure Hunter (ML 4-1)

C's

# 3 Zippy Groom (ML 12-1)

# 12 For Him (ML 8-1)

This contest is an Optional Claimer / Starter Allowance hybrid, and it's written as follows:  first requirement is the three year old must have started for a claiming price of $50k or less.  That's the Starter Allowance provision.  After that hurdle is cleared, it's an N2L Optional Claimer; if your horse has just one victory, then it runs without fear of being claimed.  More than one lifetime Win, and he runs with a $40k price tag on his head.  For the record, # 6 Utah Ute (ML 6-1), # 8 Get Em Up Scout (ML 8-1), and # 11 Ima Take Charge (ML 8-1) are the three runners in this contest with more than one visit to the Winner's Circle, and therefore eligible to be claimed.

Utah Ute goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill, who tends to do well with such.   Treasure Hunter, Royal Trump, and Royal Bar filled out the bottom three slots of the Superfecta in an OC 50k at Del Mar back in November.

Get Em Up Scout may be outclassed here; but I think Get Em Up Scout ran well enough last time out to merit strong consideration here.  Zippy Groom graduated over this main track last time out with ease, albeit while going around two turns.  For Him could move up with the cutback in distance.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 How About Zero (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 4 Antonia (Per) (ML 12-1)

# 6 Sasini (GB) (ML 6-1)

# 7 Ms Wakaya (ML 8-1)

# 9 The Tulip (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 10 Be Mine (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Scratch the Also Eligibles: #11 Bombilate (ML 3-1), # 12 Peach Cove (NZ) (ML 6-1), # 13 Hacktivism (ML 8-1), and # 14 Achira (ML 12-1)

How About Zero gets some much needed class relief.  Antonia (Per) could benefit greatly from the cutback in distance.  Sasini (GB) seems a notch below many here; but Sasini could find herself with a nice trip, getting first run at the leaders turning for home.  Ms Wakaya was a clear winner the last time that she competed on the lawn.

The Tulip (Ire) is making her first North American start, and she seems well meant here.  Be Mine has disappointed three times in her seven race career as the Post Time Favorite; not exactly a stellar recommendation, but the talent to win at this level is certainly there.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 1,6,7,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,9,10 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,8,9,10 with 2,8 with 6 with 8 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,5,7 with 6 with 8 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,8 with 3,12 with 8 $2.00

Total: $39.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo