1/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Wintry weather continues to cause havoc on North American thoroughbred racing; but in Southern California the track is Fast and the turf is Firm, so that's where I'll be keeping my action this weekend.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 11 Karmic Affinity (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 3 Dee Way to Go (ML 15-1)
# 6 Whatyouciswhatuget (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sapphire Kid (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Impecunious (ML 7-2)
# 7 Super Patriot (ML 4-1)

While neither her pedigree nor her connections suggest that Karmic Affinity will be firing at first asking, Karmic Affinity has been working lights out for her debut here.  Of course, you always have  to be cautious when using a first time starter in a Maiden Claiming contest, especially one that was purchased at auction for more than the tag she that has on her head today.  After all, it's fair to reason, if Karmic Affinity is so good, why are her connections so willing to let her go at a loss without having ever seen her compete?  But with that said, I think the quality of this field suggests that a first time runner should do well; and Karmic Affinity certainly looks ready to roll.

Dee Way to Go, Whatyouciswhatuget, and Sapphire Kid all ran well this past Summer before being shut down.  If any of the three can pick up where they left off before going on the shelf, then they can win here.

Impecunious, one of several here running first time for a tag, could improve with the move to real dirt.  Super Patriot, trained by Bob Baffert, looks to have done her best racing on the turf going around two turns (and, yes, charging down the Santa Anita hill involves going around two turns), so she may not be a good fit in a dirt sprint; but a Baffert runner dropping in for a tag for the first time always deserves at least some consideration.

RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Itsinthepost (Fr) (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Isotherm (ML 7-2)
# 7 He Will (ML 4-1)
# 9 Free Rose (ML 10-1)

Itsinthepost (Fr) can win from anywhere, and should improve off the freshening.  Flamboyant (Fr), winner of this event back in 2016, seems to be rounding nicely into form.

Isotherm won the Grade 2 San Marcos over this turf course the last time that he competed on the lawn.  He Will could improve with the increase in real estate.  Free Rose should be prominent early, and might get a nice stalking trip.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $16k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Scathing (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 8 Pica (ML 7-2)
# 9 Devil's Beauty (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Kiss My Lulu (ML 6-1)
# 2 Sea Myrtle (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pashalitsa (ML 8-1)

Scathing was a clear winner last time out, and has run well in the past over this main track.  Devil's Beauty and Pica were separated by just a length at the wire last time out with a higher price tag on their respective heads.

Kiss My Lulu could improve with the return to real dirt.  Sea Myrtle could move up with the return to one turn racing.  Pashalitsa has run well in the past when making the seven furlong trip.

RACE 9 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Cash Prize (ML 6-1)
# 10 Instant Reflex (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 4 Beau Square (ML 5-1)
# 7 Phantom Proton (ML 15-1)
# 8 C. C. Zip (ML 6-1)

C's

# 9 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Rooms (ML 20-1)
# 12 Salten Sapity (ML 8-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles; # 13 Mongolian Shopper (ML 4-1) and # 14 Tweeting (ML 8-1)

Cash Prize has proven competitive at this class level, and has run well in the past charging down the hill.  Instant Relex took the Show in the Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy two starts back.

Beau Square took the Place at this class level two starts back, albeit on the flats at Del Mar.  Phantom Proton could improve off the freshening.  C. C. Zip was victorious in her only prior try charging down the hill.

Siberian Iris (Ire) and Rooms each try the hill for the first time, both having done well previously on the flats.  Salten Sapity graduated over this turf course two starts back.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,6,8,11 with 1,8 with 4,8,9 with 4,6,7,8,10 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 8 with 4 with 6,10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 6,7,9 with 4 with 6,10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 1,2,7 with 6,10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 11 with 8 with 4 with 9,11,12 $1.50

Total: $71.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:01 EST / 3:01 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo