Saturday, January 27, 2018

1/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

California breds are in the spotlight Saturday, as the Santa Anita card contains four stakes for runners that are state bred or sired.  Oh, and note the earlier than usual Post Time for the opener; apparently there's some big race happening in Florida.  Anyway, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - [S] Clm $16k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Rocket Fuel (Morning Line 2-1)

B’s

# 3 Matriculate (ML 5-2)
# 6 Guy Code (ML 5-1)

C's

# 5 Native Treasure (ML 5-1)

Rocket Fuel should improve with the move off the lawn.  Matriculate is a re-claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, for whom he ran quite well.  Guy Code took the Place against classier foes last time out; Guy Code also looks to be quickest here.  Native Treasure could be the one running best late.

RACE 8 - [S] The Unusual Heat Turf Classic $200k - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Rye (ML 3-1)

B's

# 1 He Will (ML 2-1)
# 4 Camino Del Paraiso (ML 5-1)

C's

# 7 The Big Train (ML 15-1)
# 8 Smokey Image (ML 3-1)


Rye should improve with the return to the turf; besides, Trainer Billy Morey has been winning everything else at Santa Anita the past few weeks.  He Will could move up with the class drop; but the distance may be problematic.  Camino Del Paraiso fits well here on class; but Camino Del Paraiso seems to settle for too many minor awards.

The Big Train has been showing steady improvement (albeit against lesser company) since joining the barn of Trainer Peter Miller.  Smokey Image should be forwardly placed early and may hit the line before the the rest have a chance to get into top gear.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Karmic Affinity (ML 15-1)
# 11 Judicial (ML 5-1)
# 12 Nice Ice (ML 6-1)

B's

# 1 Smoovie (ML 12-1)
# 3 Mixed Emotions (ML 12-1)
# 4 Charmingslew (ML 7-2)
# 5 Champagne Honey (ML 8-1)
# 6 Inland Empire (ML 5-1)
# 10 Z Z Tiger (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Sunny Sweet (ML 30-1)
# 7 Swanee (ML 15-1)
# 9 Oh My Soul (ML 15-1)

Judicial, Charmingslew, Inland Empire, and Z Z Tiger all exit the same last out contest; and all ran well enough to be worthy of consideration today.  Nice Ice ships in from upstate after taking the Place in her debut.  Nice Ice's work over this main track on the 20th suggests that she should handle the surface switch well.

Karmic Affinity, Smoovie, Mixed Emotions, and Champagne Honey are all first time starters that seem capable enough (either through works, connections, or breeding) to graduate in their debut.  The "C" Selections are everyone else.  Needless to say, I consider this to be a wide open contest.  I probably should just hit the "ALL" button for the big ticket; but, trying to keep this play at least in the same area code as the budget, I'll take my chances with seventy-five percent of the field.

RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 George From Tahoe (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Smart Knows Smart (ML 4-1)

C's

# 5 Shaymin (ML 6-1)
# 6 Jump the Tracks (ML 8-1)
# 9 Gringo Star (ML 12-1)
# 10 Minister's Glory (ML 10-1)


Scratch # 12 Consensual (ML 4-1) and # 14 Swallows Inn Gal (ML 50-1).  Bring in # 13 Ready Eddie (ML 20-1) off the Also Eligible list.

George From Tahoe ran quite well charging down the Santa Anita Hill in his debut last time out.  If he can carry that form onto the flats, George From Tahoe should get his picture taken today.

Smart Knows Smart missed graduation by just a nose the last time that he competed on the grass at today's distance.  Shaymin moved up with the move to the turf last time out; perhaps Shaymin will continue to improve.

Jump the Tracks did well in his first try around two turns last time out, albeit over the main track.  Gringo Star could improve with the rider change.  Minister's Glory tried to go quick early last time out and was finished too soon; if Minister's Glory can rate early he may be able to get up in time late.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12 with 3,4 $81.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 8,11,12 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 2,7,9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 6 with 8,11,12 with 5,6,9,10 $6.00

Total: $96.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 5:45 EST / 2:45 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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