1/14/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Five - Preview

For those wondering, the switch to The Late Pick Five is because there is a carryover of $192,748 in that pool heading into Sunday's action in Arcadia.  So with that pot of gold as motivation let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at The Great Race Place.

RACE 5 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Touchdown U S C (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Dos Palos (ML 6-1)
# 4 Old School Ike (ML 5-1)
# 5 Gryffindor (ML 20-1)

# 6 Starship Chewy (ML 12-1)
# 11 Danny O (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 7 Downhill Run (ML 50-1).  Bring in # 11 Danny O (ML 4-1) from the Also Eligible List; but not # 12 Captain N. Barron (ML 12-1), who gets the day off.

Well, if you're gonna single, might as well do it in the opening leg and get it out of the way.  Actually this isn't a pure single, for (as you can see) I'm using almost half the field on a backup ticket.  In my opinion Touchdown U S A has a clear edge over the rest of this field.  If Touchdown U S A runs anywhere close to her last time out, she wins here.  However, if Touchdown U S A left her form at Del Mar, then this becomes a pretty wide open affair, as I see no true standout among the other entrants.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 8 Save Ground (ML 3-1)
# 10 Atonarun (ML 4-1)

B's

# 5 Schooley (ML 9-2)
# 6 Dial Me In (ML 9-2)

# 9 Bold Papa (ML 5-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 11 Tatar (ML 5-1) who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list

Atonarun is the new shooter here, having run well enough in his debut charging down the hill back in May to suggest that the flat mile should suit him just fine.  The rest are runners capable of winning at this level who have battled each other in the past without any showing definitive signs of wanting to be the leader of the pack.  Bold Papa is the most talented of this group; but Bold Papa has shown a lot of signs that being the first one home is not for him.  Even that time when he did cross under the wire first he didn't look comfortable with his position.  So with the most talented runner in the field abdicating the position of leader, this race then becomes a contest among the rest as to which will be the least camera shy.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 50k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Show It N Moe It (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 3 Twisted Rosie (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Carpathia (ML 12-1)

# 2 Family Girl (ML 3-1)

# 4 Carrie's Success (ML 6-1)

Show It N Moe It should improve with the return to dirt.  Twisted Rosie could move up with the return to one turn racing.  Likewise for Carpathia.

Sunday's distance may be too far for Family Girl to show her best; but Family Girl fits well here on class.  Carrie's Success tries winners for the first time after closing well at Los Alamitos to graduate last time out.

RACE 8 - (F) The Kalookan Queen $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Princess Karen (ML 5-2)

B's

# 2 Selcourt (ML 9-5)
# 4 Cuddle Alert (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Malibu Stacy (ML 6-1)
# 6 Reverse (ML 10-1)

# 7 Cuyathy (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 8 Ashley's Secret (ML 50-1)

Princess Karen looks best here, and she should appreciate the class relief.  Selcourt returns from an extended vacation, and any improvement she shows from natural maturation could make her tough to beat here.  Cuddle Alert looks to be the one most likely to take advantage of any pace meltdown.

Malibu Stacy fits well here on class, but she may not be quick enough to keep up with this field.  Reverse will be trying a Fast dirt for the first time; and while her morning works suggest that the surface switch will pose no problems, Reverse will have to run the race of her life to win here.  Cuyathy was much the best wiring the field last time out; but she sure got away with some soft fractions in that contest.

RACE 9 - (F) The Astra $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 How Unusual (ML 7-2)

B's

# 10 Estrechada (Arg) (ML 7-2)

# 11 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Lucy De (ML 15-1)

# 2 Queen Blossom (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 6 Plein Air (Ire) (ML 6-1)

Scratch # 4 Scandal (ML 15-1)

How Unusual looks in good position to extend her current winning streak.  Estrechada (Arg) and Evo Campo (Ire) both won Graded Stakes in 2017 at today's distance.

Lucy De shows a steadily improving form.  Queen Blossom (Ire) should be forwardly placed early, which means less traffic to dodge late.  Plein Air (Ire) seems to have found a suitable spot to make her North American debut.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 5 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 10 with 5,6,8,9,10 with 3,7 with 2,4,5 with 5,10,11 $45.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 1,4,5,6,11 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 5 $5.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 1,2,4 with 5 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 3,6,7 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 10 with 8,10 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6 $3.00

Total: $61.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 5:34 EST / 2:34 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo