As anyone who’s been paying attention to my Pick Four posts knows, I’ve had my share of bad beats. I’ve lost Pick Fours due to photo finishes; I lost a Pick Four due to a DQ; I once even missed out on cashing in on a Pick Four play because I decided to cancel my tickets based upon the weather. But, thank God, I’ve never had a bad beat like many people playing Belmont Park suffered Sunday.
Race 10 at Belmont Park Sunday was won by Mister Dooley, with Luis Saez aboard. But if you had Mister Dooley on your Pick Four or Pick Six tickets, you lost.
Briefly, what happened was this: prior to the start of the race, during warmups, Mister Dooley lost a shoe, which was discovered just prior to Post Time as the horses were entering the starting gate. NYRA officials decided to scratch Mister Dooley and let him run for purse money only; and then, without delay, finished loading the gate and began the race.
Obviously, this was not an optimal decision. The other horses could have been backed out of the gate, Mister Dooley could have been re-shod, and then all horses re-loaded, with the race being run with a minor delay. Indeed, ironically enough, this is exactly what happened later in the day at Santa Anita. Prior to the running of Race 8 - The John Henry Turf Championship it was noticed as the horses were entering the gate that one of the entrants, Code of Conduct, had lost a shoe during warmups. The horses were backed out of the gate, Code of Conduct was re-shod, and then the race was run after a slight delay. Now, I realize that the good people of Southern California have the reputation of being more laid back and patient than your typical New Yorker, but there’s just no good reason why this couldn’t have also been done at Belmont Park.
Granted, if you were playing the Win/Place/Show pools or the late Double starting with Race 10 at Belmont Park and they announce Mister Dooley is scratched right before the race begins, you at least get a refund for your wagers. Yeah, it sucks to see the horse you liked cross the finish line first and not make a nickel’s worth of profit on it, but at least you haven’t lost anything; all the money you bet is refunded. And if you had Mister Dooley in the Double that ended with Race 10, at least you collect on the consolation Double (provided, of course, that you got the first half right). Likewise with the Pick Three; it’s not the payoff you truly deserve, but at least you have more money in your pocket after the race is over than you did before it began.
But such is not the case with the Pick Four or the Pick Six. Race 10 was the penultimate race at Belmont Sunday, making it the third leg in the Pick Four and the fifth leg of the Pick Six. So all bets in those pools were in several races ago; there’s no changing those plays, even if NYRA hadn’t started Race 10 virtually simultaneously with the announcement that Mister Dooley was scratched. So under the rules of the Pick Four and Pick Six, once Mister Dooley was scratched, bettors who had him on their Pick Four and Pick Six tickets were given the Post Time Favorite in his place; which turned out to be Hudson Miracle, who finished ninth, thirteen and a half lengths behind the winner, Mister Dooley.
My heart goes out to those who had Mister Dooley in their Pick Four and Pick Six plays. Hopefully NYRA never does anything so foolish again.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 30, 2013
Saturday, September 28, 2013
9/28/13 Belmont Park All-Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four - Results
How close did we come to hitting the Pick Four at Belmont Park Saturday? This close.
We anticipated chaos in two of the four legs of the All Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four; specifically, the first and last races. And while chaos did come to pass in the final leg of the sequence - Race 10 (The Jockey Club Gold Cup) which was won by # 1 Ron the Greek (Final Odds 21.00), Race 7 (The Vosburgh) was decidedly un-chaotic; as the second choice on the board, # 8 Private Zone (3.60) showed that the early speed in his form was no mirage in the desert, as he led the field around the track and held on for the Win after doing The Bump with Place finisher # 2 Justin Phillip (2.70*) down the stretch.
So we got one big price out of the two races where we (effectively) punched the "ALL" button; now it was just a matter of getting the odds-on favorites home in the middle two legs. And we did just that with ease in Race 8 (The Flower Bowl) as # 1A Laughing (0.60*) and entry mate # 1 Tannery (Ire) crossed the wire one-two. But such was not the case in Race 9 (The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic) as # 7 Little Mike (7.40) returned to the form that won him last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Classic as he sat just off the pace, took the lead in the stretch, and held on for dear life, winning the head bob over # 2 Big Blue Kitten (0.90*) with # 2B Real Solution taking the Show one length back.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who played the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 8 / 1 / 7 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1810.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We anticipated chaos in two of the four legs of the All Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four; specifically, the first and last races. And while chaos did come to pass in the final leg of the sequence - Race 10 (The Jockey Club Gold Cup) which was won by # 1 Ron the Greek (Final Odds 21.00), Race 7 (The Vosburgh) was decidedly un-chaotic; as the second choice on the board, # 8 Private Zone (3.60) showed that the early speed in his form was no mirage in the desert, as he led the field around the track and held on for the Win after doing The Bump with Place finisher # 2 Justin Phillip (2.70*) down the stretch.
So we got one big price out of the two races where we (effectively) punched the "ALL" button; now it was just a matter of getting the odds-on favorites home in the middle two legs. And we did just that with ease in Race 8 (The Flower Bowl) as # 1A Laughing (0.60*) and entry mate # 1 Tannery (Ire) crossed the wire one-two. But such was not the case in Race 9 (The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic) as # 7 Little Mike (7.40) returned to the form that won him last year's Breeder's Cup Turf Classic as he sat just off the pace, took the lead in the stretch, and held on for dear life, winning the head bob over # 2 Big Blue Kitten (0.90*) with # 2B Real Solution taking the Show one length back.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who played the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 8 / 1 / 7 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $1810.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/28/13 Belmont Park All-Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four - The Play
Alright, here's the Pick Four strategy I'll be using today. I'm figuring the first leg, The Vosburgh, to probably be chaos; the next two to be formful; and the final leg (The Jockey Club Gold Cup) to also be formful, but with a heavy possibility of chaos. Anyway, that's the strategy; here's how it looks in ticket form:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $1.00
Play this one also for a dollar:
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 2, 3
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Cost: $24.50
Total Cost: $46.50
If # 1A Laughing (in The Flower Bowl) and # 2 Big Blue Kitten (in The Turf Classic) run to form, then we've got it, because we've got all bases covered in the other two legs. But if either of those two fail (along with their entry mates) then we need # 6 Flat Out to win The Jockey Club Gold Cup for the third year in a row (presuming, of course, that we caught the winner with our backups in whichever of the two middle races that the expected favorite failed).
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $1.00
Play this one also for a dollar:
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 2, 3
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6
Cost: $7.00
RACE 7: ALL
RACE 8: 1
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Cost: $24.50
Total Cost: $46.50
If # 1A Laughing (in The Flower Bowl) and # 2 Big Blue Kitten (in The Turf Classic) run to form, then we've got it, because we've got all bases covered in the other two legs. But if either of those two fail (along with their entry mates) then we need # 6 Flat Out to win The Jockey Club Gold Cup for the third year in a row (presuming, of course, that we caught the winner with our backups in whichever of the two middle races that the expected favorite failed).
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/28/13 Belmont Park All-Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four - Preview
Big day in horse racing today as we move closer to the Breeders’ Cup. New York’s Belmont Park will be offering an all Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four that culminates with the Jockey Club Gold Cup; while in SoCal, Santa Anita will be presenting five Grade 1 events on its dance card. For our Pick Four play today, we look to the East.
RACE 7 - The Vosburgh Invitational (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Bahamian Squall (Morning Line 4-1), winner of the Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, has been showing good form of late, as evidenced by his steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three events. But his last time out, Bahamian Squall was defeated in the Grade 1 Alfred G Vanderbilt by two lengths by # 2 Justin Phillip (ML 3-1), who in turn was defeated his last time out by over three lengths in the Grade 1 Forego by # 4 Strapping Groom (ML 5-1).
Strapping Groom has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at Belmont Park, earning three wins (along with one Place and one Show) in his five career starts over this main track. But Strapping Groom likes to do his running on the front end; and when he goes for the lead today, he just may find # 8 Private Zone (ML 4-1) already there.
The Doug O’Neill trained Private Zone finally found the Winner’s Circle his last time out, his first victory since May 2012. In between those two wins Private Zone had a streak of four Place finishes in stakes events, including the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita. While Private Zone had the lead at some point in the stretch in all those races, he wasn’t able to hold on til the wire in any of them.
# 5 The Lumber Guy (ML 8-1) is another, like Strapping Groom and Private Zone, that does his best running early; though he can come from just off the pace, as he demonstrated in winning this event last year, and in taking the Place in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. However, since the BC Sprint The Lumber Guy has made just three starts, and has not looked sharp in any of them.
So if those three decide to do battle on the front end, who will be the beneficiary of all that early speed? On form it would appear to be # 1 Forty Tales (ML 7-2) who came from over seven lengths back to win the Grade 2 Amsterdam @ Saratoga two starts back, and who came from thirteen lengths back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over this Belmont main track the start before that. Forty Tales disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop; but that performance can be forgiven, as Forty Tales suffered all sorts of traffic problems trying to rally late in that fourteen horse field.
This one looks to be very competitive, and a great one to kick off Belmont’s all Grade 1 Pick Four. I like Forty Tales, primarily because of the pace setup; though, to be honest, I’d like him a lot more if Joel Rosario was on his back (incidentally, Rosario is scheduled to return to riding October 12).
RACE 8 - (F) The Flower Bowl Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1A Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-5) is the class standout here, having earned over $800k in her twelve career turf starts. Laughing enters today’s contest with a three race winning streak, all in Graded Stakes. Laughing projects to be the lone speed in today’s race, so she should be able to do what she wants on the front end and set a reasonable pace. If all that’s not enough, Laughing will be coupled with # 1 Tannery, as both share the same owner (Richard Santulli) and trainer (Alan Goldberg); so if Laughing can’t last til the wire, there’s a good chance Tannery will be coming late.
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 8-1) showed great promise in winning the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes back in October 2011 as a two year old in her second career start, after breaking her maiden in her debut. But after winning her first two career races Somali Lemonade didn’t find the Winner’s Circle again until this past July, when she won the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap in Philadelphia. However, while she’s only gotten her picture taken three times in her career, Somali Lemonade has been competitive, and is second only to Laughing in this field in career turf earnings. Note also that this will be Somali Lemonade’s first career start at a distance greater than nine furlongs; as she is the daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, it can be presumed that Somali Lemonade will appreciate the increased distance.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
As in The Flower Bowl (Race 8), The Turf Classic features a heavy favorite that is part of a coupled owner/trainer entry. Here we have # 2 Big Blue Kitten (ML 8-5) coming into this event off back-to-back Grade 1 victories in The Sword Dancer and The United Nations. Big Blue Kitten’s entry mate is # 2B Real Solution, the declared winner of this year’s Arlington Million after the DQ of Apache. As both Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution prefer to do their running late, Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and Trainer Chad Brown have also entered # 2X Joes Blazing Aaron, a front running speedster, to insure an honest pace.
# 5 Twilight Eclipse (ML 7-2) is two-for-three (with one Place) at this distance on the turf, including a record setting performance at Gulfstream Park earlier this year in the Grade 2 Pan American, where he covered the ten furlongs in 2:22.63. Most recently, Twilight Eclipse took the Place behind Big Blue Kitten in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga; the Trifecta that day being completed by # 3 Nutello (ML 8-1).
# 1A Boisterous (ML 4-1) is one half of the Owner Phipps Stables / Trainer Shug McGaughey entry, along with # 1 Imagining. However, since both have John Velazquez listed as their rider, its almost certain that one will be scratched. Boisterous defeated Big Blue Kitten back in June in the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes; in his next start, Boisterous defeated Twilight Eclipse in the Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes. But both of those events were run on a turf that was less than firm; likewise for Boisterous’ two Graded Stakes wins prior to that. So even if Boisterous should run today, I don’t expect to see his best effort unless a sudden unexpected shower should fall upon the Belmont grass.
# 8 Little Mike (ML 10-1) has not finished in the money since winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, one of three Grade 1 victories for Little Mike in 2012. Mike Smith will be along for the ride today.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 6 Flat Out (ML 3-1) is the defending two-time champ, looking to become the only horse other than Kelso to win this event three years in a row (for the record, Kelso won the Jockey Club Gold Cup five straight years, 1960-1964). Flat Out stands as the one to beat here, as he enters this race in top form, having posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three races, all in triple digits.
# 8 Cross Traffic (ML 5-2) looks to be the lone speed in this event, and could have things all alone to himself on the front end for a good portion of this race. Cross Traffic just misses by a nose (in the Grade 1 Metropolitan) and a head (in the Grade 3 Westchester) of being a perfect five-for-five for his career. The question is, can he last ten furlongs?
Kentucky Derby winner # 2 Orb (ML 9-2) squares off again against Belmont Stakes winner # 7 Palace Malice (ML 4-1) as they both compete against older horses for the first time in their respective careers. They are the only three year olds in this field, and will each carry four pounds less than the other entrants.
# 5 Alpha (ML 8-1) beat Flat Out by a head last time out in the slop in the Grade 1 Woodward. # 3 Last Gunfighter (ML 10-1) has won seven of his last eight; his only loss in that stretch being when he took the Place behind Flat Out in the Grade 2 Suburban. # 1 Ron the Greek (ML 12-1) does his best running late; there may not be be enough pace for him to chase in this one.
# 4 Vitoria Olimpica (Brz) is “the other Pletcher” in this one (besides Cross Traffic and Palace Malice) and gets the rider switch from Johnny V to Irad Ortiz Jr; just like Capo Bastone in The King’s Bishop (Winner @ 28-1) and Peace Preserver in The Noble Dancer (Winner @ 16-1).
Flat Out strikes me as the best in this field, and this is his race to lose. The only major threat I see is if Cross Traffic gets loose on an easy lead, in which case it will be a question of whether or not Cross Traffic can hold on until the wire. Another problem could be if Flat Out has to get on the lead with Cross Traffic to keep him honest; in which case Palace Malice and/or Orb could be sitting close enough to pick up the pieces if those two fade.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four tickets posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Vosburgh Invitational (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Bahamian Squall (Morning Line 4-1), winner of the Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, has been showing good form of late, as evidenced by his steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three events. But his last time out, Bahamian Squall was defeated in the Grade 1 Alfred G Vanderbilt by two lengths by # 2 Justin Phillip (ML 3-1), who in turn was defeated his last time out by over three lengths in the Grade 1 Forego by # 4 Strapping Groom (ML 5-1).
Strapping Groom has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at Belmont Park, earning three wins (along with one Place and one Show) in his five career starts over this main track. But Strapping Groom likes to do his running on the front end; and when he goes for the lead today, he just may find # 8 Private Zone (ML 4-1) already there.
The Doug O’Neill trained Private Zone finally found the Winner’s Circle his last time out, his first victory since May 2012. In between those two wins Private Zone had a streak of four Place finishes in stakes events, including the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita. While Private Zone had the lead at some point in the stretch in all those races, he wasn’t able to hold on til the wire in any of them.
# 5 The Lumber Guy (ML 8-1) is another, like Strapping Groom and Private Zone, that does his best running early; though he can come from just off the pace, as he demonstrated in winning this event last year, and in taking the Place in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. However, since the BC Sprint The Lumber Guy has made just three starts, and has not looked sharp in any of them.
So if those three decide to do battle on the front end, who will be the beneficiary of all that early speed? On form it would appear to be # 1 Forty Tales (ML 7-2) who came from over seven lengths back to win the Grade 2 Amsterdam @ Saratoga two starts back, and who came from thirteen lengths back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over this Belmont main track the start before that. Forty Tales disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop; but that performance can be forgiven, as Forty Tales suffered all sorts of traffic problems trying to rally late in that fourteen horse field.
This one looks to be very competitive, and a great one to kick off Belmont’s all Grade 1 Pick Four. I like Forty Tales, primarily because of the pace setup; though, to be honest, I’d like him a lot more if Joel Rosario was on his back (incidentally, Rosario is scheduled to return to riding October 12).
RACE 8 - (F) The Flower Bowl Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1A Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-5) is the class standout here, having earned over $800k in her twelve career turf starts. Laughing enters today’s contest with a three race winning streak, all in Graded Stakes. Laughing projects to be the lone speed in today’s race, so she should be able to do what she wants on the front end and set a reasonable pace. If all that’s not enough, Laughing will be coupled with # 1 Tannery, as both share the same owner (Richard Santulli) and trainer (Alan Goldberg); so if Laughing can’t last til the wire, there’s a good chance Tannery will be coming late.
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 8-1) showed great promise in winning the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes back in October 2011 as a two year old in her second career start, after breaking her maiden in her debut. But after winning her first two career races Somali Lemonade didn’t find the Winner’s Circle again until this past July, when she won the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap in Philadelphia. However, while she’s only gotten her picture taken three times in her career, Somali Lemonade has been competitive, and is second only to Laughing in this field in career turf earnings. Note also that this will be Somali Lemonade’s first career start at a distance greater than nine furlongs; as she is the daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, it can be presumed that Somali Lemonade will appreciate the increased distance.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
As in The Flower Bowl (Race 8), The Turf Classic features a heavy favorite that is part of a coupled owner/trainer entry. Here we have # 2 Big Blue Kitten (ML 8-5) coming into this event off back-to-back Grade 1 victories in The Sword Dancer and The United Nations. Big Blue Kitten’s entry mate is # 2B Real Solution, the declared winner of this year’s Arlington Million after the DQ of Apache. As both Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution prefer to do their running late, Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and Trainer Chad Brown have also entered # 2X Joes Blazing Aaron, a front running speedster, to insure an honest pace.
# 5 Twilight Eclipse (ML 7-2) is two-for-three (with one Place) at this distance on the turf, including a record setting performance at Gulfstream Park earlier this year in the Grade 2 Pan American, where he covered the ten furlongs in 2:22.63. Most recently, Twilight Eclipse took the Place behind Big Blue Kitten in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga; the Trifecta that day being completed by # 3 Nutello (ML 8-1).
# 1A Boisterous (ML 4-1) is one half of the Owner Phipps Stables / Trainer Shug McGaughey entry, along with # 1 Imagining. However, since both have John Velazquez listed as their rider, its almost certain that one will be scratched. Boisterous defeated Big Blue Kitten back in June in the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes; in his next start, Boisterous defeated Twilight Eclipse in the Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes. But both of those events were run on a turf that was less than firm; likewise for Boisterous’ two Graded Stakes wins prior to that. So even if Boisterous should run today, I don’t expect to see his best effort unless a sudden unexpected shower should fall upon the Belmont grass.
# 8 Little Mike (ML 10-1) has not finished in the money since winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, one of three Grade 1 victories for Little Mike in 2012. Mike Smith will be along for the ride today.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 6 Flat Out (ML 3-1) is the defending two-time champ, looking to become the only horse other than Kelso to win this event three years in a row (for the record, Kelso won the Jockey Club Gold Cup five straight years, 1960-1964). Flat Out stands as the one to beat here, as he enters this race in top form, having posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three races, all in triple digits.
# 8 Cross Traffic (ML 5-2) looks to be the lone speed in this event, and could have things all alone to himself on the front end for a good portion of this race. Cross Traffic just misses by a nose (in the Grade 1 Metropolitan) and a head (in the Grade 3 Westchester) of being a perfect five-for-five for his career. The question is, can he last ten furlongs?
Kentucky Derby winner # 2 Orb (ML 9-2) squares off again against Belmont Stakes winner # 7 Palace Malice (ML 4-1) as they both compete against older horses for the first time in their respective careers. They are the only three year olds in this field, and will each carry four pounds less than the other entrants.
# 5 Alpha (ML 8-1) beat Flat Out by a head last time out in the slop in the Grade 1 Woodward. # 3 Last Gunfighter (ML 10-1) has won seven of his last eight; his only loss in that stretch being when he took the Place behind Flat Out in the Grade 2 Suburban. # 1 Ron the Greek (ML 12-1) does his best running late; there may not be be enough pace for him to chase in this one.
# 4 Vitoria Olimpica (Brz) is “the other Pletcher” in this one (besides Cross Traffic and Palace Malice) and gets the rider switch from Johnny V to Irad Ortiz Jr; just like Capo Bastone in The King’s Bishop (Winner @ 28-1) and Peace Preserver in The Noble Dancer (Winner @ 16-1).
Flat Out strikes me as the best in this field, and this is his race to lose. The only major threat I see is if Cross Traffic gets loose on an easy lead, in which case it will be a question of whether or not Cross Traffic can hold on until the wire. Another problem could be if Flat Out has to get on the lead with Cross Traffic to keep him honest; in which case Palace Malice and/or Orb could be sitting close enough to pick up the pieces if those two fade.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four tickets posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, September 27, 2013
9/27/13 STK R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel found his way to the winners circle Friday in Race 7 at Stockton, the third time that he's crossed the wire first for Trainer/Owner Victor Trujillo in the last thirteen months. The event was a $12.5k Claimer (NW2L X) run at a distance of six furlongs over God made dirt. City Chapel (Final Odds 3.30) settled early; shifted out in the stretch; found himself behind a wall of horses; shifted back in; split horses; and won by a neck.
For those unfamiliar with the story, we've been following City Chapel since last August, when Victor Trujillo claimed him for $4,000 out of a race in which City Chapel went to post at nearly 30-1 and finished out of the money. Since that event City Chapel has (including Friday's race) competed seventeen times for the Trujillo barn, posting three wins, five second place finishes, and four third place finishes. City Chapel's total purse winnings for Victor Trujillo (including the $9,350 which he earned with Friday's victory) now stands at $40,205. Obviously, the $4k Trujillo invested to get City Chapel was money well spent.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For those unfamiliar with the story, we've been following City Chapel since last August, when Victor Trujillo claimed him for $4,000 out of a race in which City Chapel went to post at nearly 30-1 and finished out of the money. Since that event City Chapel has (including Friday's race) competed seventeen times for the Trujillo barn, posting three wins, five second place finishes, and four third place finishes. City Chapel's total purse winnings for Victor Trujillo (including the $9,350 which he earned with Friday's victory) now stands at $40,205. Obviously, the $4k Trujillo invested to get City Chapel was money well spent.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 23, 2013
9/22/13 BSR R12 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
The last time I wrote about Paralyzing Eyes I had this to say:
"So it's clear that [Trainer Bruce] Jackson's holding tight to Paralyzing Eyes for the time being, being careful not to let her go at too cheap a price, even though it means running her at a class level in which she does not belong."
Well Sunday, in Race 12 at Fairplex, Paralyzing Eyes offered her rebuttal to my remarks. Coming back on less than two weeks rest, the Oklahoma bred filly achieved her first ever in the money finish, taking the Show in a seven furlong event in which she went to Post at Final Odds of 44.10. While she was no threat to the winner, Miss Judged (7.10), finishing six and a half lengths back, Paralyzing Eyes most definitely was third best in the field of eight, crossing the wire seven full lengths in front of the fourth place finisher, Warren's My Queen (41.20).
So perhaps Paralyzing Eyes is turning a corner; some horses just take longer to figure out what's going on. Or, somewhat more pragmatically, perhaps she just caught a really weak field, one in which only one runner had finished in the money in her last start. We shall see, as we continue to follow this four year old.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"So it's clear that [Trainer Bruce] Jackson's holding tight to Paralyzing Eyes for the time being, being careful not to let her go at too cheap a price, even though it means running her at a class level in which she does not belong."
Well Sunday, in Race 12 at Fairplex, Paralyzing Eyes offered her rebuttal to my remarks. Coming back on less than two weeks rest, the Oklahoma bred filly achieved her first ever in the money finish, taking the Show in a seven furlong event in which she went to Post at Final Odds of 44.10. While she was no threat to the winner, Miss Judged (7.10), finishing six and a half lengths back, Paralyzing Eyes most definitely was third best in the field of eight, crossing the wire seven full lengths in front of the fourth place finisher, Warren's My Queen (41.20).
So perhaps Paralyzing Eyes is turning a corner; some horses just take longer to figure out what's going on. Or, somewhat more pragmatically, perhaps she just caught a really weak field, one in which only one runner had finished in the money in her last start. We shall see, as we continue to follow this four year old.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 21, 2013
9/21/13 Parx All-Stakes Pick Four - Results
Well, we did things a little different today. Instead of having just one ticket with three out of four winners, we decided to have two.
We started off well, as our decision to single # 2 Roadhog (Final Odds 1.90*) in Race 8 - The Alphabet Soup Handicap - proved to be correct, as Roadhog won by half a length over # 1 Shetan (4.00). We also made the right move in the final leg of the sequence, as Race 11 - The Pennsylvania Derby - went to # 7 Will Take Charge (2.30*), one of just two whom we covered on both tickets (the other, # 3 Moreno (3.00) took the Place).
But we made a big mistake in Race 10 - The Cotillion. Oh, we covered the right horse, # 9 Close Hatches (1.60*); but we failed to show her due respect as the class standout in the field. Because of that, we spread wide in the wrong race, and therefore failed to cover # 7 City of Weston (30.50) in Race 9 - The Gallant Bob. We spoke of City of Weston having a good chance of lighting up the tote board because he enjoyed a pace advantage by being a closer in a field of speed; but when it came time to lay our money down we failed to make the plunge, all because we didn't have the faith to single # 9 Close Hatches in the Cotillion. One of the big rules of handicapping is that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races, and our failure to recognize Close Hatches as a Grade 1 horse cost us the Pick Four. Lesson (hopefully) learned.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Incidentally, congrats to those who calmly considered what I wrote about City of Weston's chances and backed him in the Win Pool. Hopefully they weren't too shocked by the results, and are now enjoying their winnings.
Congrats, of course, also go out to those who had the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 7 / 9 / 7 as they were rewarded with a payout of $551.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We started off well, as our decision to single # 2 Roadhog (Final Odds 1.90*) in Race 8 - The Alphabet Soup Handicap - proved to be correct, as Roadhog won by half a length over # 1 Shetan (4.00). We also made the right move in the final leg of the sequence, as Race 11 - The Pennsylvania Derby - went to # 7 Will Take Charge (2.30*), one of just two whom we covered on both tickets (the other, # 3 Moreno (3.00) took the Place).
But we made a big mistake in Race 10 - The Cotillion. Oh, we covered the right horse, # 9 Close Hatches (1.60*); but we failed to show her due respect as the class standout in the field. Because of that, we spread wide in the wrong race, and therefore failed to cover # 7 City of Weston (30.50) in Race 9 - The Gallant Bob. We spoke of City of Weston having a good chance of lighting up the tote board because he enjoyed a pace advantage by being a closer in a field of speed; but when it came time to lay our money down we failed to make the plunge, all because we didn't have the faith to single # 9 Close Hatches in the Cotillion. One of the big rules of handicapping is that Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races, and our failure to recognize Close Hatches as a Grade 1 horse cost us the Pick Four. Lesson (hopefully) learned.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Incidentally, congrats to those who calmly considered what I wrote about City of Weston's chances and backed him in the Win Pool. Hopefully they weren't too shocked by the results, and are now enjoying their winnings.
Congrats, of course, also go out to those who had the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 2 / 7 / 9 / 7 as they were rewarded with a payout of $551.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/21/13 Parx All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
Today is Pennsylvania Derby Day @ Parx, and to celebrate the track is offering an All-Stakes Pick Four on Saturday’s card. The Philadelphia forecast calls for 70% chance of rain; so while the track and course are currently fast and firm, gotta figure there’s a good chance that may change as the day goes on.
RACE 8 - [S] The Alphabet Soup Handicap $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Roadhog (Moring Line 2-1) looks like a class standout in this one, having taken three state restricted stakes in his last ten outings, along with just missing by a nose of taking this event last year.
# 3 Rustler Hustler (ML 5-1) looks to be just a step below # 2 Roadhog. I may noy use Rustler Hustler in my Pick Four play, but he looks like a good one to pair with Roadhog for an Exacta play.
# 12 Winchill (ML 7-2) is second choice on the Morning Line, but he looks out of his element on the grass; and his conditioner, Kathleen DeMasi, is oh for her last fifty-four when moving her charges from dirt to turf. But since this is an ungraded event, there is the possibility that this gets moved off the turf if the heavy rains should come; and if that happens, then Winchill’s stock goes way up.
RACE 9 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 11 Rainbow Heir (ML 3-1) suffered his first career defeat last time out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he ran out of gas in the stretch. Rainbow Heir will have a half furlong less to worry about in today’s contest, as well as getting a rider switch to Mike Smith.
# 12 Clearly Now (ML 4-1) took the Grade 3 Swale @ Gulfstream Park back in March of this year. While he’s been winless since, Clearly Now’s margin of defeat in his three races after that event were all by a margin of less than a length. Clearly Now is coming back from an eleven week vacation; Trainer Brian Lynch has an .18 Winning Percentage with entrants returning from a 61-180 day freshening. Note that Clearly Now has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in his eight race career.
# 13 Zeewat (ML 6-1) makes the step up in class today to Graded Stakes after having taken three listed stakes in his last eight outings. Zeewat is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
If you’re looking to roll the dice, a couple in this one who could upset at big prices are # 7 City of Weston (ML 20-1) and # 8 Majestic Hussar (ML 20-1). City of Weston may enjoy a pace advantage here, being a legitimate closer in a field filled with speed; while Majestic Hussar has two Wins and a Place in his three career tries on an off track; making him one of the very few in this field that have proven that they can handle an off track.
I may spread wide in this one, especially if the rains come, as none of the top three contenders listed above have competed on an off dirt track.
RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
# 9 Close Hatches (ML 5-2) looks to be a class standout in this one, having taken the Grade 1 Mother Goose @ Belmont along with the Grade 2 Gazelle @ Aqueduct in a six race career. The only other Grade 1 winner in this field is # 7 Sweet Lulu (ML 7-2) who took the Grade 1 Test Stakes at a distance of seven furlongs. This will be Close Hatches’ first race since that win in the Mother Goose in June; but she’s been firing bullets in her workouts, and Trainer Bill Mott does quite well with runners returning from a vacation of two to six months.
If we spread out from Close Hatches, other logical contenders include the aforementioned Sweet Lulu; Delaware Oaks winner # 3 Dancing Afleet (ML 15-1); Monmouth Oaks winner # 5 Seaneen Girl (ML 5-1); # 6 My Happy Face (ML 9-2) who took the Place in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks behind Princess of Sylmar, along with missing by just a neck and a head (respectively) of winning the Grade 1 Test and the Grade 1 Frizette; and # 10 Street Girl (ML 10-1) who won the Calder Oaks over a sloppy track.
Close Hatches has a clear class edge in this one, and if she runs back to her effort in the Mother Goose she’ll win for sure. But this is no walkover; if Close Hatches brings anything less than her best, this could be anyone’s game.
RACE 12 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Will Take Charge (ML 2-1) and # 3 Moreno (ML 5-2) enter this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figures, earned in their one-two finish in the Grade 1 Travers, where they crossed the finish line just a nose apart. Interesting to note that Moreno has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers, while Will Take Charge made his big step forward after removing the hood.
# 1 Transparent and # 1A Romansh (ML 8-1) are the Godolphin entry who finished well out of the money in the Travers, as neither one wanted any part of the ten furlongs distance. Both should turn in better performances with today’s turnback in distance.
# 2 Speak Logistics (ML 5-1) just missed by a neck last time out in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones over this dirt track. As the track was muddy that day, Speak Logistics may be one to keep an eye on if the rains should come.
# 6 Fury Kapcori (ML 8-1) invades from the West for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Fury Kapcori has only one career race on a real dirt track, the Charlie Palmer Futurity, which he won as a two year old last October at Fresno.
# 5 Java’s War (ML 4-1) is a proven closer; but in this year’s Kentucky Derby, in which closers dominated, Java’s War could do no better than thirteenth. Perhaps he didn’t like the off track that day; something to consider if the clouds should open up today.
Okay; it's less than a half hour to post for Race 8, and still no rain. I decided to make # 2 Roadhog my single in Race 8; that allows me to get away with just two tickets.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: 9
RACE 11: 3, 7
Cost: $6.00
Play this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 3, 6, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $46.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - [S] The Alphabet Soup Handicap $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Roadhog (Moring Line 2-1) looks like a class standout in this one, having taken three state restricted stakes in his last ten outings, along with just missing by a nose of taking this event last year.
# 3 Rustler Hustler (ML 5-1) looks to be just a step below # 2 Roadhog. I may noy use Rustler Hustler in my Pick Four play, but he looks like a good one to pair with Roadhog for an Exacta play.
# 12 Winchill (ML 7-2) is second choice on the Morning Line, but he looks out of his element on the grass; and his conditioner, Kathleen DeMasi, is oh for her last fifty-four when moving her charges from dirt to turf. But since this is an ungraded event, there is the possibility that this gets moved off the turf if the heavy rains should come; and if that happens, then Winchill’s stock goes way up.
RACE 9 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 11 Rainbow Heir (ML 3-1) suffered his first career defeat last time out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he ran out of gas in the stretch. Rainbow Heir will have a half furlong less to worry about in today’s contest, as well as getting a rider switch to Mike Smith.
# 12 Clearly Now (ML 4-1) took the Grade 3 Swale @ Gulfstream Park back in March of this year. While he’s been winless since, Clearly Now’s margin of defeat in his three races after that event were all by a margin of less than a length. Clearly Now is coming back from an eleven week vacation; Trainer Brian Lynch has an .18 Winning Percentage with entrants returning from a 61-180 day freshening. Note that Clearly Now has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in his eight race career.
# 13 Zeewat (ML 6-1) makes the step up in class today to Graded Stakes after having taken three listed stakes in his last eight outings. Zeewat is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
If you’re looking to roll the dice, a couple in this one who could upset at big prices are # 7 City of Weston (ML 20-1) and # 8 Majestic Hussar (ML 20-1). City of Weston may enjoy a pace advantage here, being a legitimate closer in a field filled with speed; while Majestic Hussar has two Wins and a Place in his three career tries on an off track; making him one of the very few in this field that have proven that they can handle an off track.
I may spread wide in this one, especially if the rains come, as none of the top three contenders listed above have competed on an off dirt track.
RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
# 9 Close Hatches (ML 5-2) looks to be a class standout in this one, having taken the Grade 1 Mother Goose @ Belmont along with the Grade 2 Gazelle @ Aqueduct in a six race career. The only other Grade 1 winner in this field is # 7 Sweet Lulu (ML 7-2) who took the Grade 1 Test Stakes at a distance of seven furlongs. This will be Close Hatches’ first race since that win in the Mother Goose in June; but she’s been firing bullets in her workouts, and Trainer Bill Mott does quite well with runners returning from a vacation of two to six months.
If we spread out from Close Hatches, other logical contenders include the aforementioned Sweet Lulu; Delaware Oaks winner # 3 Dancing Afleet (ML 15-1); Monmouth Oaks winner # 5 Seaneen Girl (ML 5-1); # 6 My Happy Face (ML 9-2) who took the Place in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks behind Princess of Sylmar, along with missing by just a neck and a head (respectively) of winning the Grade 1 Test and the Grade 1 Frizette; and # 10 Street Girl (ML 10-1) who won the Calder Oaks over a sloppy track.
Close Hatches has a clear class edge in this one, and if she runs back to her effort in the Mother Goose she’ll win for sure. But this is no walkover; if Close Hatches brings anything less than her best, this could be anyone’s game.
RACE 12 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Will Take Charge (ML 2-1) and # 3 Moreno (ML 5-2) enter this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figures, earned in their one-two finish in the Grade 1 Travers, where they crossed the finish line just a nose apart. Interesting to note that Moreno has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers, while Will Take Charge made his big step forward after removing the hood.
# 1 Transparent and # 1A Romansh (ML 8-1) are the Godolphin entry who finished well out of the money in the Travers, as neither one wanted any part of the ten furlongs distance. Both should turn in better performances with today’s turnback in distance.
# 2 Speak Logistics (ML 5-1) just missed by a neck last time out in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones over this dirt track. As the track was muddy that day, Speak Logistics may be one to keep an eye on if the rains should come.
# 6 Fury Kapcori (ML 8-1) invades from the West for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Fury Kapcori has only one career race on a real dirt track, the Charlie Palmer Futurity, which he won as a two year old last October at Fresno.
# 5 Java’s War (ML 4-1) is a proven closer; but in this year’s Kentucky Derby, in which closers dominated, Java’s War could do no better than thirteenth. Perhaps he didn’t like the off track that day; something to consider if the clouds should open up today.
Okay; it's less than a half hour to post for Race 8, and still no rain. I decided to make # 2 Roadhog my single in Race 8; that allows me to get away with just two tickets.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: 9
RACE 11: 3, 7
Cost: $6.00
Play this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 3, 6, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $46.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 15, 2013
9/14/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Results
Hey, remember The Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga about three weeks ago? You know, the race where Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr replaced Johnny V on a Todd Pletcher horse and wound up winning at a big price, killing our Pick Four play in the process? Well Saturday we got served a very unsavory dish of Deja Vu.
When we set up our tickets, we thought that Race 7 was going to be the most contentious race of the Late Pick Four sequence; so, while we made # 7 Medea (Ire) the lone "A" contender on our tickets, we covered the rest of the field as "C" contenders as a safety net. Well, as it turned out, our safety net was unnecessary, as Madea (Final Odds 1.45*) won clear, a full two lengths in front of Place horse # 9 Pleasant Cat (8.60).
We also got one of our "A" contenders home in the finale, as Race 10 saw # 9 Vinny Goodtimes (7.50) cross the finish line a length and a quarter in front of the rest of the field. I must confess to being especially proud of the way I handicapped this one, as I wrote in the preview that I would be leaning heavily on those in this field that did their best running late. Sure enough, the horses that occupied the top five slots in the twelve horse field six furlongs into the race were the horses that occupied the bottom five slots at the finish. So that's something positive that we can take from the day.
Race 9, the Grade 1 Garden City Stakes, was won by # 4 Alterite (Fr) (3.00) whom we had used as a "C" contender on our tickets. All of which brings us to Race 8, the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes.
We had double "A" coverage in The Noble Damsel, so if either # 6 Hungry Island (3.05) or # 3 Better Lucky (0.95*) had crossed the Finish Line first we would have cashed. But it was not to be; as # 5 Peace Preserver (16.10), the Todd Pletcher trained horse getting the rider switch from John Velazquez to Irad Ortiz Jr (just like Capo Bastone in The King's Bishop) hit the wire a half length in front of Place horse Hungry Island, with Better Lucky getting the Show.
Oh well; onto the next race.
In retrospect, we picked the wrong race in which to go deep. As things played out, Race 7 was not contentious at all, as the short priced Post Time Favorite won with ease. Race 8, The Noble Damsel, was the leg where we should have hit the all button, especially since we noted in our preview the shortcomings of the top two selections in the field. Hopefully we'll do better next time.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 5 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $1394.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
When we set up our tickets, we thought that Race 7 was going to be the most contentious race of the Late Pick Four sequence; so, while we made # 7 Medea (Ire) the lone "A" contender on our tickets, we covered the rest of the field as "C" contenders as a safety net. Well, as it turned out, our safety net was unnecessary, as Madea (Final Odds 1.45*) won clear, a full two lengths in front of Place horse # 9 Pleasant Cat (8.60).
We also got one of our "A" contenders home in the finale, as Race 10 saw # 9 Vinny Goodtimes (7.50) cross the finish line a length and a quarter in front of the rest of the field. I must confess to being especially proud of the way I handicapped this one, as I wrote in the preview that I would be leaning heavily on those in this field that did their best running late. Sure enough, the horses that occupied the top five slots in the twelve horse field six furlongs into the race were the horses that occupied the bottom five slots at the finish. So that's something positive that we can take from the day.
Race 9, the Grade 1 Garden City Stakes, was won by # 4 Alterite (Fr) (3.00) whom we had used as a "C" contender on our tickets. All of which brings us to Race 8, the Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes.
We had double "A" coverage in The Noble Damsel, so if either # 6 Hungry Island (3.05) or # 3 Better Lucky (0.95*) had crossed the Finish Line first we would have cashed. But it was not to be; as # 5 Peace Preserver (16.10), the Todd Pletcher trained horse getting the rider switch from John Velazquez to Irad Ortiz Jr (just like Capo Bastone in The King's Bishop) hit the wire a half length in front of Place horse Hungry Island, with Better Lucky getting the Show.
Oh well; onto the next race.
In retrospect, we picked the wrong race in which to go deep. As things played out, Race 7 was not contentious at all, as the short priced Post Time Favorite won with ease. Race 8, The Noble Damsel, was the leg where we should have hit the all button, especially since we noted in our preview the shortcomings of the top two selections in the field. Hopefully we'll do better next time.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 5 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $1394.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 14, 2013
9/14/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - The Play
OK, so here's my Pick Four strategy for today. I'm going to key # 7 Medea (Ire) in the opening leg, and make her my single "A" contender in that race. If she wins, I believe that I'm well covered in the other three races. However, since I see the first leg as the most competitive of the four, I'm playing the rest of the field as C's; that means that, no matter who wins Race 7, I'm still alive. But if any horse other than Medea wins Race 7, then I have to be perfect the rest of the way; which means that # 2 Discreet Marq must beat # 1 Emollient in Race 9, The Garden City.
So with that, here's what the tickets look like:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $6.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $24.00
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $1.50
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 4, 6
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 4, 7, 11
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $43.50
Post time for Race 7 is 4:37 EDT / 1:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So with that, here's what the tickets look like:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $6.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $24.00
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $1.50
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 1, 4, 6
RACE 10: 6, 9, 12
Cost: $9.00
RACE 7: 7
RACE 8: 3, 6
RACE 9: 2
RACE 10: 4, 7, 11
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $43.50
Post time for Race 7 is 4:37 EDT / 1:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/14/13 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview
Since SoCal racing is partying at the LA County Fair, I decided to move my action to the east coast today. I’ll be taking a swing at the all grass Late Pick Four at Belmont Park, starting with:
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Sweet Potato (Morning Line 6-1) makes her fourth career start today for owner Bobby Flay, her second under the tutelage of Trainer James Toner, after having previously run for conditioners Todd Pletcher and Marty Jones. This will be Sweet Potato’s first time routing, though she did charge down the hill in her debut at Santa Anita. Worth noting: two of the three winners in Sweet Potato’s prior starts came back to win again after earning their diploma (the third, Cavetto (GB) has not yet returned to the track since breaking her maiden).
# 2 Weave (ML 10-1) makes her second career start for Trainer Graham Motion and also gets a change in rider, swapping Alan Garcia for John Velazquez. Weave endured a series of bumps with Can’t Catch Kate at the start in her debut, and then had to come four wide in the stretch. Except a better trip this time out.
# 4 Toy Land (ML 7-2) made her debut for Trainer Bill Mott back in January down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, and hasn’t competed since. Mott does quite well with runners coming back after a long vacation, winning with approximately 27% of his charges that run after a rest of over 180 days. Edgar Prado, who was on top for that Florida run, will be back in the saddle today.
# 5 Jewel Kat (ML 3-1) flashed some early speed in her debut at Monmouth Park back in July, before losing ground in the stretch and settling for second best. Jewel Kat has the best Tomlinson Turf/Distance Rating in this field, which is not unexpected considering the presence of both In Excess (grandsire) and A.P. Indy (damsire) in her bloodlines. Garrett Gomez will be onboard today.
# 6 Cloture (ML 10-1) rises back up to the MSW class after running with a $75k price tag on her head last time out, back in December of 2012. Note the winner of that event was Emotional Kitten, Place horse in this year’s Grade 1 American Oaks and the Show horse in last month’s Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. In addition to making her three year old debut, Cloture will be getting lasix for the first time today; Trainer Shug McGaughey connects with a .36 Winning Percentage with runners taking the drug for the first time, and has a .17 Winning Percentage with horses competing after a vacation of more than half a year. Jockey Junior Alvarado gets the ride today.
# 7 Medea (Ire) (ML 4-1) took the Place last time out in her stateside debut, finishing three lengths behind Formative, who came back to win again her next time out. Medea has yet to finish out of the money in her four career starts, though in two of those she disappointed as the favorite. Like several others here, Medea is returning after a long layoff, having not competed since February. Trainer (and Owner) Francis Abbott III gets 17% winners from his charges returning after a greater than six month layoff (in a very small sample size). Note that Abbott brings in Jockey Forest Boyce for the ride.
If I were focusing on the Win Pool, I’d probably have most of my action going to # 7 Medea; though taking a swing for price with # 6 Cloture would certainly be a viable option. As far as Pick Four strategy goes, I figure to cast a pretty wide net in this one, as this looks to be a very competitive affair.
RACE 8 - (F) The Noble Damsel Stakes (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 1 Naples Bay (ML 6-1) is the returning champ, having taken this event last year (and paying $28.00 to Win in the process). That event was also the last time that Naples Bay has visited the Winner’s Circle, as she has taken the collar (with two Place finishes) in her five starts since. Jockey Garrett Gomez gets the mount today.
# 2 Assateague (ML 6-1) looks to be the quickest of this bunch, and could steal this one on the front end. Assateague enters this contest with a two race winning streak, which includes her victory in the state restricted De La Rose Stakes her last time out. That race is notable because Assateague won by sitting just off the pace rather than leading the pack (Assateague’s usual running style); though that may owe more to the fact that she bobbled at the break, rather than representing a change in running style. Jockey Luis Saez, who was on Assateague’s back for her last two wins, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 9-5) gets some class relief today, having competed in nothing but Grade 1 or Grade 2 events since May of 2012. With that said, one has to wonder if this is just a prep for this four year old filly, as it’s her first start since taking the Place in the Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes in June, and just her third start of the year. At her best she’s the one to beat here; but don’t be surprised if she doesn’t go all out.
# 4 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (ML 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite her last time out in the aforementioned De La Rose Stakes, her first start for Trainer Chad Brown. The problem in that event was that Laugh Out Loud did not settle early, and then didn’t have enough left at the end. Perhaps it may be best to send her early in this one to keep Assateague from getting an easy head start on the field. Laugh Out Loud gets a new rider today, as Jockey Edgar Prado replaces JJ Castellano, who will be on top of # 3 Better Lucky.
# 5 Peace Preserver (ML 10-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, is winless since capturing The Pebbles Stakes last October. going oh-for-five since that event; twice disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in that span. Jockey Irad Ortiz, who rode Peace Preserve to a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes, gets the mount again today; as Peace Preserver’s usual jockey, John Velazquez, will be onboard # 6 Hungry Island.
# 6 Hungry Island (ML 2-1) won a conditioned Allowance back in April at Keeneland; that race was the only start for Hungry Island in a nine race span that was not either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event. Hard to say that she’s getting class relief here, as the presence of # 3 Better Lucky makes this field somewhat tougher than your typical Grade 3 affair. Not sure what to make of her last; perhaps she just needed the race; or maybe the years are catching up to this five year old mare.
While both # 3 Better Lucky and # 6 Hungry Island are capable of winning at higher levels, there are enough red flags with each runner to suggest that they may not be at peak form. If # 4 Laugh Out Loud can return to the form that she displayed in Europe, she will certainly be in the mix; and if she gets ignored in the betting as the money rolls in on the top two favorites, Hungry Island could be a serious overlay in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Garden City (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Emollient (ML 3-1), winner of the Grade 1 American Oaks, and # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, are the top two contenders in this event. Of the two, I prefer Discreet Marq. Looking at Brisnet’s Pace Figures from each of their Grade 1 victories, Discreet Marq was quicker both early and late than Emollient. Also note that Discreet Marq already has a win on this Belmont inner turf course (as well as a victory over Belmont’s Widener Turf Course); Emollient has yet to run on New York grass. While these are both very capable horses, I feel Discreet Marq has an edge over Emollient in this one; a slight edge, perhaps; but still an edge.
# 4 Alterite (ML 4-1) makes her stateside debut for Trainer Chad Brown, who does very well with such (.33 Winning Percentage). But a look at Alterite’s form suggests that she does her best running when the grass is less than firm. Jockey Johnny V gets the mount today.
# 6 Summer of Fun (ML 8-1) would be entering this one with a three race winning streak if not for losing the photo to Emotional Kitten in the Hilltop Stakes. Summer of Fun looks to be in top form, and certainly has been working well; the question is, can she win at this level?
I’m currently leaning heavily towards making # 2 Discreet Marq my single “A” in this one, a move that would allow me to go deeper in the other legs of the Pick Four. We’ll see later how it all shakes out.
RACE 10 - OC 35k/SAL 35k - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 3 Exporter (ML 4-1) won at this level his last time out, part of a five race streak in which Exporter won trice while twice taking the Place. But that event was back in May; and Trainer Carl Domino has just a .07 Winning Percentage when bringing horses back from a two-to-six month vacation. Also note the late rider change, as Javier Castellano opts to ride # 13 Herbert Hall (who drew in with the scratch of # 10 Hot Sand) and has been replaced with Joe Rocco Jr.
# 4 Smoke Town (ML 12-1) comes back after a nice freshening for a trainer (Linda Rice) who connects 18% of the time with runners coming back after a 31-60 day rest. Smoke Town showed an ability to rate his last time out, which was his first time trying two turns. The blinkers come off today, which further suggests that Smoke Town should be coming late.
# 6 Why Not Whisky (ML 6-1) moves up to open company from the state bred ranks. Why Not Whisky has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, with the exception of # 2 Dreamsgonewild (but note that Dreamsgonewild earned his Beyer in a five and a half furlong sprint). There appears to be a lot of early speed in this one, which would be to Why Not Whisky’s advantage, as he tends to do his best running late.
# 7 Foolish Tiger (ML 15-1) was in the mix his last time out, losing by less than three lengths at this level at Saratoga. Foolish Tiger has a late running style that should suit him well today. And don’t underestimate apprentice jockey Manuel Franco, who has enjoyed some success in the early days of this meet, winning four of his first twenty-four races.
# 9 Vinny Goodtimes (ML 8-1) took the show at Saratoga his last time out, his third career start, and his first try against winners. The bullet work on 9/6 suggests that Vinny Goodtimes came out of that one well, and should be in the mix today.
# 11 Short Shrift (ML 10-1) takes a step up the class ladder for Trainer Jack Fisher, who does quite well getting his winners to do it again (.21 Winning Percentage with horses that won their last start). Note that Fisher also does well with runners (like Short Shrift) returning from a layoff of 31-60 days, winning 15% of the time with such.
# 12 Southern Tier (ML 7-2) has been knocking at the door against this level or better in each of his last four starts. The only time Southern Tier has brought forth a truly poor effort was when he tried stakes competition in his second career start. Jockey Alex Solis, who was onboard for each of Southern Tier’s last three races, will be along for the ride again today.
# 13 Hebert Hall (ML 5-1) is two-for-two on the Belmont grass; but both of those wins were over the inner turf course, where early speed generally holds up better than it does on the Widener Turf Course. Also note that the one time in his last ten that Herbert Hall tried routing he finished last, over sixteen lengths back of the winner.
Were I playing the Win Pool, I would probably key on # 12 Southern Tier, while # 6 Why Not Whisky would be a good one to play for price. This one looks competitive; I expect to lean heavily on those who do their best running late when putting together my Pick Four play.
Post time for Race 7 is 4:37 EDT / 1:37 PDT. I’ll be back soon to post my Pick Four tickets.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Sweet Potato (Morning Line 6-1) makes her fourth career start today for owner Bobby Flay, her second under the tutelage of Trainer James Toner, after having previously run for conditioners Todd Pletcher and Marty Jones. This will be Sweet Potato’s first time routing, though she did charge down the hill in her debut at Santa Anita. Worth noting: two of the three winners in Sweet Potato’s prior starts came back to win again after earning their diploma (the third, Cavetto (GB) has not yet returned to the track since breaking her maiden).
# 2 Weave (ML 10-1) makes her second career start for Trainer Graham Motion and also gets a change in rider, swapping Alan Garcia for John Velazquez. Weave endured a series of bumps with Can’t Catch Kate at the start in her debut, and then had to come four wide in the stretch. Except a better trip this time out.
# 4 Toy Land (ML 7-2) made her debut for Trainer Bill Mott back in January down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, and hasn’t competed since. Mott does quite well with runners coming back after a long vacation, winning with approximately 27% of his charges that run after a rest of over 180 days. Edgar Prado, who was on top for that Florida run, will be back in the saddle today.
# 5 Jewel Kat (ML 3-1) flashed some early speed in her debut at Monmouth Park back in July, before losing ground in the stretch and settling for second best. Jewel Kat has the best Tomlinson Turf/Distance Rating in this field, which is not unexpected considering the presence of both In Excess (grandsire) and A.P. Indy (damsire) in her bloodlines. Garrett Gomez will be onboard today.
# 6 Cloture (ML 10-1) rises back up to the MSW class after running with a $75k price tag on her head last time out, back in December of 2012. Note the winner of that event was Emotional Kitten, Place horse in this year’s Grade 1 American Oaks and the Show horse in last month’s Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. In addition to making her three year old debut, Cloture will be getting lasix for the first time today; Trainer Shug McGaughey connects with a .36 Winning Percentage with runners taking the drug for the first time, and has a .17 Winning Percentage with horses competing after a vacation of more than half a year. Jockey Junior Alvarado gets the ride today.
# 7 Medea (Ire) (ML 4-1) took the Place last time out in her stateside debut, finishing three lengths behind Formative, who came back to win again her next time out. Medea has yet to finish out of the money in her four career starts, though in two of those she disappointed as the favorite. Like several others here, Medea is returning after a long layoff, having not competed since February. Trainer (and Owner) Francis Abbott III gets 17% winners from his charges returning after a greater than six month layoff (in a very small sample size). Note that Abbott brings in Jockey Forest Boyce for the ride.
If I were focusing on the Win Pool, I’d probably have most of my action going to # 7 Medea; though taking a swing for price with # 6 Cloture would certainly be a viable option. As far as Pick Four strategy goes, I figure to cast a pretty wide net in this one, as this looks to be a very competitive affair.
RACE 8 - (F) The Noble Damsel Stakes (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 1 Naples Bay (ML 6-1) is the returning champ, having taken this event last year (and paying $28.00 to Win in the process). That event was also the last time that Naples Bay has visited the Winner’s Circle, as she has taken the collar (with two Place finishes) in her five starts since. Jockey Garrett Gomez gets the mount today.
# 2 Assateague (ML 6-1) looks to be the quickest of this bunch, and could steal this one on the front end. Assateague enters this contest with a two race winning streak, which includes her victory in the state restricted De La Rose Stakes her last time out. That race is notable because Assateague won by sitting just off the pace rather than leading the pack (Assateague’s usual running style); though that may owe more to the fact that she bobbled at the break, rather than representing a change in running style. Jockey Luis Saez, who was on Assateague’s back for her last two wins, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Better Lucky (ML 9-5) gets some class relief today, having competed in nothing but Grade 1 or Grade 2 events since May of 2012. With that said, one has to wonder if this is just a prep for this four year old filly, as it’s her first start since taking the Place in the Grade 1 Just A Game Stakes in June, and just her third start of the year. At her best she’s the one to beat here; but don’t be surprised if she doesn’t go all out.
# 4 Laugh Out Loud (GB) (ML 5-1) disappointed as the Post Time Favorite her last time out in the aforementioned De La Rose Stakes, her first start for Trainer Chad Brown. The problem in that event was that Laugh Out Loud did not settle early, and then didn’t have enough left at the end. Perhaps it may be best to send her early in this one to keep Assateague from getting an easy head start on the field. Laugh Out Loud gets a new rider today, as Jockey Edgar Prado replaces JJ Castellano, who will be on top of # 3 Better Lucky.
# 5 Peace Preserver (ML 10-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, is winless since capturing The Pebbles Stakes last October. going oh-for-five since that event; twice disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in that span. Jockey Irad Ortiz, who rode Peace Preserve to a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Beaugay Stakes, gets the mount again today; as Peace Preserver’s usual jockey, John Velazquez, will be onboard # 6 Hungry Island.
# 6 Hungry Island (ML 2-1) won a conditioned Allowance back in April at Keeneland; that race was the only start for Hungry Island in a nine race span that was not either a Grade 1 or Grade 2 event. Hard to say that she’s getting class relief here, as the presence of # 3 Better Lucky makes this field somewhat tougher than your typical Grade 3 affair. Not sure what to make of her last; perhaps she just needed the race; or maybe the years are catching up to this five year old mare.
While both # 3 Better Lucky and # 6 Hungry Island are capable of winning at higher levels, there are enough red flags with each runner to suggest that they may not be at peak form. If # 4 Laugh Out Loud can return to the form that she displayed in Europe, she will certainly be in the mix; and if she gets ignored in the betting as the money rolls in on the top two favorites, Hungry Island could be a serious overlay in the Win Pool.
RACE 9 - (F) The Garden City (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1 Emollient (ML 3-1), winner of the Grade 1 American Oaks, and # 2 Discreet Marq (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, are the top two contenders in this event. Of the two, I prefer Discreet Marq. Looking at Brisnet’s Pace Figures from each of their Grade 1 victories, Discreet Marq was quicker both early and late than Emollient. Also note that Discreet Marq already has a win on this Belmont inner turf course (as well as a victory over Belmont’s Widener Turf Course); Emollient has yet to run on New York grass. While these are both very capable horses, I feel Discreet Marq has an edge over Emollient in this one; a slight edge, perhaps; but still an edge.
# 4 Alterite (ML 4-1) makes her stateside debut for Trainer Chad Brown, who does very well with such (.33 Winning Percentage). But a look at Alterite’s form suggests that she does her best running when the grass is less than firm. Jockey Johnny V gets the mount today.
# 6 Summer of Fun (ML 8-1) would be entering this one with a three race winning streak if not for losing the photo to Emotional Kitten in the Hilltop Stakes. Summer of Fun looks to be in top form, and certainly has been working well; the question is, can she win at this level?
I’m currently leaning heavily towards making # 2 Discreet Marq my single “A” in this one, a move that would allow me to go deeper in the other legs of the Pick Four. We’ll see later how it all shakes out.
RACE 10 - OC 35k/SAL 35k - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course
# 3 Exporter (ML 4-1) won at this level his last time out, part of a five race streak in which Exporter won trice while twice taking the Place. But that event was back in May; and Trainer Carl Domino has just a .07 Winning Percentage when bringing horses back from a two-to-six month vacation. Also note the late rider change, as Javier Castellano opts to ride # 13 Herbert Hall (who drew in with the scratch of # 10 Hot Sand) and has been replaced with Joe Rocco Jr.
# 4 Smoke Town (ML 12-1) comes back after a nice freshening for a trainer (Linda Rice) who connects 18% of the time with runners coming back after a 31-60 day rest. Smoke Town showed an ability to rate his last time out, which was his first time trying two turns. The blinkers come off today, which further suggests that Smoke Town should be coming late.
# 6 Why Not Whisky (ML 6-1) moves up to open company from the state bred ranks. Why Not Whisky has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, with the exception of # 2 Dreamsgonewild (but note that Dreamsgonewild earned his Beyer in a five and a half furlong sprint). There appears to be a lot of early speed in this one, which would be to Why Not Whisky’s advantage, as he tends to do his best running late.
# 7 Foolish Tiger (ML 15-1) was in the mix his last time out, losing by less than three lengths at this level at Saratoga. Foolish Tiger has a late running style that should suit him well today. And don’t underestimate apprentice jockey Manuel Franco, who has enjoyed some success in the early days of this meet, winning four of his first twenty-four races.
# 9 Vinny Goodtimes (ML 8-1) took the show at Saratoga his last time out, his third career start, and his first try against winners. The bullet work on 9/6 suggests that Vinny Goodtimes came out of that one well, and should be in the mix today.
# 11 Short Shrift (ML 10-1) takes a step up the class ladder for Trainer Jack Fisher, who does quite well getting his winners to do it again (.21 Winning Percentage with horses that won their last start). Note that Fisher also does well with runners (like Short Shrift) returning from a layoff of 31-60 days, winning 15% of the time with such.
# 12 Southern Tier (ML 7-2) has been knocking at the door against this level or better in each of his last four starts. The only time Southern Tier has brought forth a truly poor effort was when he tried stakes competition in his second career start. Jockey Alex Solis, who was onboard for each of Southern Tier’s last three races, will be along for the ride again today.
# 13 Hebert Hall (ML 5-1) is two-for-two on the Belmont grass; but both of those wins were over the inner turf course, where early speed generally holds up better than it does on the Widener Turf Course. Also note that the one time in his last ten that Herbert Hall tried routing he finished last, over sixteen lengths back of the winner.
Were I playing the Win Pool, I would probably key on # 12 Southern Tier, while # 6 Why Not Whisky would be a good one to play for price. This one looks competitive; I expect to lean heavily on those who do their best running late when putting together my Pick Four play.
Post time for Race 7 is 4:37 EDT / 1:37 PDT. I’ll be back soon to post my Pick Four tickets.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
9/11/13 BSR R1 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
The last time we looked in on Paralyzing Eyes, we wondered if Trainer Bruce Jackson would drop her down from the $20k Maiden Claiming ranks in which she had been "competing" (I put competing in quotation marks as Paralyzing Eyes has hardly been competitive; indeed, she has yet to finish in the Superfecta). The answer is no, as Wednesday in Race 1 at Fairplex (aka Barretts Sales and Racing; just in case you were wondering how BSR translates into Fairplex) saw Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 24.30) again enter the gate with a $20k price tag on her head, and again finish well out of the money, approximately nine and a half lengths behind the winner, Royal Weekend (2.30).
So it's clear that Jackson's holding tight to Paralyzing Eyes for the time being, being careful not to let her go at too cheap a price, even though it means running her at a class level in which she does not belong. I think it's fair to presume that her connections' long term plan to use Paralyzing Eyes for breeding supersedes any desire they may have for short term purse earnings.
At least for now. We'll continue to follow Paralyzing Eyes to see just how this story plays out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So it's clear that Jackson's holding tight to Paralyzing Eyes for the time being, being careful not to let her go at too cheap a price, even though it means running her at a class level in which she does not belong. I think it's fair to presume that her connections' long term plan to use Paralyzing Eyes for breeding supersedes any desire they may have for short term purse earnings.
At least for now. We'll continue to follow Paralyzing Eyes to see just how this story plays out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 8, 2013
9/7/13 La Downs All-Stakes Pick Four - Results
Hey, we hit the Pick Four! Too bad we lost money doing it.
The sequence started off as well as it could, as Race 8 - The Happy Ticket went to # 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Final Odds 6.60), the highest priced of our three selections, who crossed the wire just a neck in front of # 5 Bern Legacy (4.30). We also clicked on Race 9 - The Temperance Hill as well bet Favorite # 4 Gantry (0.40*) was an easy winner, passing the finish line more than four lengths ahead of Place horse # 5 Louisiana Glory (2.40). So after two races both of our tickets were still alive.
Things started to get shakey for us with Race 10 - The Unbridled; for while we had the winner, # 4 Major Marvel (2.40), we had him just on our fifty cent ticket, not on our one dollar ticket. So when # 7 Departing (0.30*) won Race 11 - The Super Derby by a comfortable four lengths we found ourselves holding a winning Pick Four ticket worth $27.50; or $25 less than our initial investment.
Hindsight being 20/20, it's clear that Departing was a standout in the Super Derby field. Adding insult to injury, the two horses with which we tried to defeat Departing, # 1 Bashaar (6.50) and # 2 Holiday Mischief (16.50), finished next-to-last and last, respectively. So we tried to beat a legitimate favorite and we paid the price for it; but at least we didn't lose our entire stake.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The sequence started off as well as it could, as Race 8 - The Happy Ticket went to # 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Final Odds 6.60), the highest priced of our three selections, who crossed the wire just a neck in front of # 5 Bern Legacy (4.30). We also clicked on Race 9 - The Temperance Hill as well bet Favorite # 4 Gantry (0.40*) was an easy winner, passing the finish line more than four lengths ahead of Place horse # 5 Louisiana Glory (2.40). So after two races both of our tickets were still alive.
Things started to get shakey for us with Race 10 - The Unbridled; for while we had the winner, # 4 Major Marvel (2.40), we had him just on our fifty cent ticket, not on our one dollar ticket. So when # 7 Departing (0.30*) won Race 11 - The Super Derby by a comfortable four lengths we found ourselves holding a winning Pick Four ticket worth $27.50; or $25 less than our initial investment.
Hindsight being 20/20, it's clear that Departing was a standout in the Super Derby field. Adding insult to injury, the two horses with which we tried to defeat Departing, # 1 Bashaar (6.50) and # 2 Holiday Mischief (16.50), finished next-to-last and last, respectively. So we tried to beat a legitimate favorite and we paid the price for it; but at least we didn't lose our entire stake.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 7, 2013
9/7/13 LaD 7 - The River Cities - Results
We got a few things right in our preview of The River Cities; so while I personally did not make the right play in this one, hopefully at least some of you made the right move.
As we expected, # 5 Queenie Vic (5.80) was the speed of the speed, taking the early lead and setting the pace for the first six furlongs of the race. # 2 Grandma's Rules (3.60) was right behind Queenie Vic throughout the first three quarters before taking her on in the turn and then over taking her in the stretch, crossing the wire two and a half lengths in front of Queenie Vic, who showed a lot of heart in holding the Place. # 7 Miss Addison (3.60), whom I made the top choice in my personal play, took the Show in photo over # 1 Cho Cho Cat (18.70). Meanwhile, Post Time Favorite # 6 Artemus Kitten (1.10*) turned in a "dull effort" (to quote the chart caller) and finished dead last.
So we correctly identified a race with a vulnerable favorite that delivered good value to those who played it right, and we tip our hat to all who came away with a profit. Congrats also go out to the connections of Grandma Rules, who continue to enjoy success with this one time $25k claimer.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
As we expected, # 5 Queenie Vic (5.80) was the speed of the speed, taking the early lead and setting the pace for the first six furlongs of the race. # 2 Grandma's Rules (3.60) was right behind Queenie Vic throughout the first three quarters before taking her on in the turn and then over taking her in the stretch, crossing the wire two and a half lengths in front of Queenie Vic, who showed a lot of heart in holding the Place. # 7 Miss Addison (3.60), whom I made the top choice in my personal play, took the Show in photo over # 1 Cho Cho Cat (18.70). Meanwhile, Post Time Favorite # 6 Artemus Kitten (1.10*) turned in a "dull effort" (to quote the chart caller) and finished dead last.
So we correctly identified a race with a vulnerable favorite that delivered good value to those who played it right, and we tip our hat to all who came away with a profit. Congrats also go out to the connections of Grandma Rules, who continue to enjoy success with this one time $25k claimer.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 La Downs All-Stakes Pick Four - The Play
Since today's fields are so small, I'm doing something a little different: in addition to my usual all "A's" ticket, I'm also combining all contenders onto one ticket, rather than separating "A"'s from "C". So the only two Pick Four Tickets we'll be playing today are:
This one for one dollar:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6, 7
RACE 11: 7
Cost: $12.00
and this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 6, 7
RACE 11: 1, 2, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $52.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
This one for one dollar:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 5
RACE 10: 6, 7
RACE 11: 7
Cost: $12.00
and this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 1, 2, 5
RACE 9: 3, 4, 5
RACE 10: 4, 6, 7
RACE 11: 1, 2, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $52.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 La Downs All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
Today's Super Derby Day at Louisiana Downs, and to celebrate they're offering a $100k guaranteed all-stakes Pick Four in Races 8 - 10 (inclusive). So while the fields are small, there may be value to be found.
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/13 LaD 7 - The River Cities - Preview
While it's not a part of the all-stakes Pick Four at Louisiana Downs that I expect to be playing Saturday, I thought the following contest was worth a look:
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - (F) The River Cities $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 6 Artemus Kitten (Morning Line 7-5) is the clear class of the field; not only is she Graded Stakes placed, she also has over a quarter of a million dollars in turf earnings. That's is not just more than any other entrant in the field; it's more than any two other entrants in this field combined. And no wonder; she’s a descendant of Kitten’s Joy, and all those cats are tough on the grass. But Artemus Kitten has been having some trouble finding the Winner’s Circle lately, going oh-for-five over the past six months. And you can’t just blame that cold streak on the level of competition, as two of those five events were un-graded stakes, on par with today’s contest. Artemus Kitten is definitely the one to beat here; but you certainly don’t want to take too short a price on her.
# 2 Grandma’s Rules (ML 5-2) missed by a neck of coming into this one with two straight stakes wins. Trainer Richard Scherer scooped her up for $25k out of an Arlington Park Claimer a little over a year ago and has been riding the hot hand since, as Grandma’s Rules has kept right on winning as she’s moved on up the class ladder.
# 7 Miss Addison (ML 4-1) took the Matron Stakes at Evangeline two starts back, finishing a length and a half in front of Little Polka Dot; who in turn went on to win the $100k Louisiana Cup Distaff Stakes last month. Miss Addison had a tough trip last time out in the TaWee Stakes, where she drew the rail and found herself with a shortage of running room. She’ll welcome the outside post today, along with a return to the saddle of Jockey Richard Eramia.
# 5 Queenie Vic (ML 6-1) could be the quickest of this lot; she’s also the local hero, with a lifetime four-for-four record on the La Downs Turf. I expect Patrick Valenzuela to be sending # 1 Cho Cho Cat (ML 15-1) hard out of the gate right along the rail. But Cho Cho Cat isn’t a front runner; and she may not be comfortable on the lead. If that indeed proves to be the case, then Queenie Vic may just find herself all alone on the front end early in this one.
As stated above, this race isn’t part of the all-Stakes Pick Four that I’ll be playing Saturday; but I handicapped it because I think that there may be value here, especially if Morning Line Favorite Artemus Kitten gets overbet. I’m currently leaning towards Miss Addison; if she goes to post at 5-1 or higher, then she’ll certainly be an overlay in my book.
Post Time for The River Cities is 4:08 EDT / 1:08 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 2, 2013
9/1/13 GG R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel is the four year old gelding that we've been following since he was claimed by Trainer Victor Trujillo out of this race last August; a race in which City Chapel went to Post at Final Odds of 29.80, and finished fifth. Saturday, City Chapel made his sixteenth start for the Trujillo barn, in Race 4 at Golden Gate (Clm $8k NW2L Maiden, Claiming and Starter races for $6,250 or less not considered) run over a distance of five and a half furlongs on the synthetic surface.
Breaking last from the gate Saturday, City Chapel (Final Odds 2.00) came three wide into the stretch and was closing at the wire; but not quickly enough, taking the Show, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Ol' Steely Blue (6.50). The outcome marked the third race in a row (and seventh out of his last nine) that City Chapel has finished in the money. The third place finish was worth $1260 in purse money to City Chapel's connections, thus bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Trujillo for $4,000 to $30,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking last from the gate Saturday, City Chapel (Final Odds 2.00) came three wide into the stretch and was closing at the wire; but not quickly enough, taking the Show, three and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Ol' Steely Blue (6.50). The outcome marked the third race in a row (and seventh out of his last nine) that City Chapel has finished in the money. The third place finish was worth $1260 in purse money to City Chapel's connections, thus bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Trujillo for $4,000 to $30,855.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/2/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Three out of four. I'm sensing a trend here.
Actually, three out of four is more than just a little misleading; as the one we missed we never really had a chance of having (unless we had decided to go "ALL" in that leg). But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Race 8 saw us get off to a good start, as one of our two "A" selections, # 2 Minds Eyes (4.40) finished a neck in front of our other "A", # 5 Heir Kitty (3.80). At least as good, we handicapped this one well enough to not give "A" contender status to the Post Time Favorite, # 4 Hail Mary (1.40*), as the pace meltdown we anticipated came to pass.
We had the winner in Race 9, # 1 Ethnic Dance (5.90), as one of our "C" selections. Ethnic Dance did what we anticipated he might in our analysis, as he took control of a paceless group and led them gate to wire around the track. However, since we had him as a "C", it meant we had to work without a net in the final two legs, and get our "A" contenders home.
And we did just that in Race 11, as our lone "A" contender in that leg, # 11 With a Miracle (2.40*) took the finale by finishing a half length in front of # 8 Gelila (7.80). So if we could have clicked with either of our two "A" selections in the third leg of the Pick Four, we would have collected.
But we did not; as we did not do a good job of handicapping Race 10. We had anticipated that the first time starters would have an edge in this one, and thus made two of them, # 8 Missing Groom (6.90) and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh (1.10*) our "A" selections for the race. But while we did accurately pick the two first time starters that would run the best out of the four debuters in this contest, we were totally off base as to how the experienced runners would perform; as all four slots in the Superfecta were filled by entrants who had previously competed; with # 2 Storm Reveler (30.50) crossing the wire first, winning the photo from # 7 California Jade (14.30), with # 4 Ajac (3.60) less than a length behind. So we totally blew that one; not just by not even considering either of the two horses that made up the Quinella, but by totally misreading the ability of the experienced runners in the field relative to those competing for the first time.
So while we were holding this ticket with three of the four winners:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
in the end it was just as worthless as the others we were holding, giving us a net loss of $40.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who did have the correct winning sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,148.95 for their fifty cent wager. And among those who did have it were my good buddy Justin T, who had the handicapping smarts to use # 2 Storm Reveler in Race 10 as an "A" selection. May God bless Justin T and all others who had it as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Actually, three out of four is more than just a little misleading; as the one we missed we never really had a chance of having (unless we had decided to go "ALL" in that leg). But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Race 8 saw us get off to a good start, as one of our two "A" selections, # 2 Minds Eyes (4.40) finished a neck in front of our other "A", # 5 Heir Kitty (3.80). At least as good, we handicapped this one well enough to not give "A" contender status to the Post Time Favorite, # 4 Hail Mary (1.40*), as the pace meltdown we anticipated came to pass.
We had the winner in Race 9, # 1 Ethnic Dance (5.90), as one of our "C" selections. Ethnic Dance did what we anticipated he might in our analysis, as he took control of a paceless group and led them gate to wire around the track. However, since we had him as a "C", it meant we had to work without a net in the final two legs, and get our "A" contenders home.
And we did just that in Race 11, as our lone "A" contender in that leg, # 11 With a Miracle (2.40*) took the finale by finishing a half length in front of # 8 Gelila (7.80). So if we could have clicked with either of our two "A" selections in the third leg of the Pick Four, we would have collected.
But we did not; as we did not do a good job of handicapping Race 10. We had anticipated that the first time starters would have an edge in this one, and thus made two of them, # 8 Missing Groom (6.90) and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh (1.10*) our "A" selections for the race. But while we did accurately pick the two first time starters that would run the best out of the four debuters in this contest, we were totally off base as to how the experienced runners would perform; as all four slots in the Superfecta were filled by entrants who had previously competed; with # 2 Storm Reveler (30.50) crossing the wire first, winning the photo from # 7 California Jade (14.30), with # 4 Ajac (3.60) less than a length behind. So we totally blew that one; not just by not even considering either of the two horses that made up the Quinella, but by totally misreading the ability of the experienced runners in the field relative to those competing for the first time.
So while we were holding this ticket with three of the four winners:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
in the end it was just as worthless as the others we were holding, giving us a net loss of $40.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who did have the correct winning sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $5,148.95 for their fifty cent wager. And among those who did have it were my good buddy Justin T, who had the handicapping smarts to use # 2 Storm Reveler in Race 10 as an "A" selection. May God bless Justin T and all others who had it as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 1, 2013
9/1/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
Analysis can be found in the previous post. Went with # 11 With a Miracle as my single "A" in the finale; was tempted to do likewise with Den's Legacy in the 2nd Division of The Del Mar Derby, but decided listing Dice Flavor in the "A" column was the wiser move. So with all that, here's the way that I'll be playing today's Pick Four at Del Mar:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $2.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3, 4
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 3, 5, 6, 10
Cost: $16.00
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 4
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $2.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 1, 3, 6, 8
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $8.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3, 4
RACE 11: 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 8: 2, 5
RACE 9: 4, 9
RACE 10: 5, 8
RACE 11: 3, 5, 6, 10
Cost: $16.00
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post time for Race 8 is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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