It's Sunday, right in the middle of a three day Labor Day weekend. It's also Del Mar Derby Day in SoCal Sunday, with four of the eleven races being stakes. Anyway, with that said, let's get to our preview of today's Pick Four:
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 4 Hail Mary (Morning Line 5-2) may be the fastest horse in this event. She certainly has the best Beyer Speed Figures in this field, being the only entrant to have ever earned a Beyer in the nineties; and she’s done it twice in her six race career. The problem with Hail Mary is that she (so far) has done her best running on the front end; and there are several in this group that will be fighting for the lead in the early going, including # 3 Tribal Gal (ML 10-1); # 6 Zia Zia Zia (ML 8-1); and # 8 Kinz Funky Monkey (ML 6-1). There is definitely a high probability of pace meltdown in this one.
# 2 Minds Eyes (ML 3-1) is making her third start for Trainer John Sadler; overall career start number eight. In her last outing Minds Eyes came within a length of victory at this class level; the time before that, also at this level, she missed by just a half length to Tasty Treat, who in turn went on to win The Daisycutter Handicap. Minds Eyes does her best running late, so the anticipated pace meltdown should be to her benefit. Note that the rider today is Bejarano; as Leparoux, who rode her those last two times out, will be on top of Hail Mary today.
# 5 Heir Kitty (ML 3-1) returns to the track after a six month vacation. Trainer Peter Miller does quite well with horses coming off a long freshening, clicking with a Winning Percentage above .30 for entrants returning after being away more than 180 days. Heir Kitty will be getting some class relief here, after having competed against stakes competition in seven of her nine career contests. Like Minds Eyes, Heir Kitty does her best running late; if she’s ready to fire, she could be the one getting her picture taken when this is all over.
RACE 9 - The Del Mar Derby (2nd Division) (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
# 1 Ethnic Dance (ML 12-1) makes a pretty big jump in class in this one, having done all his previous running against state bred competition. On the other hand, Ethnic Dance’s Beyers certainly fit in with the rest of this field, and his early running style gives him an advantage over what looks to be a pretty paceless affair. If Ethnic Dance can break clean from the rail and smoke the grass early, he just might steal this one before the others can get into gear.
# 6 Olympic Blue (ML 15-1) is another, like Ethnic Dance, that can go early if need be. Olympic Blue does have prior stakes experience, having taken the Show in both the Oceanside and the Tsunami Slew. Olympic Blue is definitely a long shot in this one; but you never want to casually dismiss a Jerry Hollendorfer trained entrant.
# 4 Den’s Legacy (ML 6-1) could find himself leading the pack early, if either Ethnic Dance or Olympic Blue fail to fire. The more likely scenario is that Den’s Legacy will be sitting right off the pace early, pressing some very easy fractions, and then find himself with a lot left in the tank as he leads the field into the stretch.
# 9 Dice Flavor (ML 9-2) came from the clouds to nip Den’s Legacy at the wire last time out in the Grade 2 La Jolla Handicap over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. The question is will Dice Flavor, a deep closer, have enough pace to chase in this one in order to make a late charge to the finish line. Garrett Gomez, who was on board for the La Jolla win, gets the mount again today.
# 3 Infinite Magic (ML 7-2) winner of the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington Park his last time out, isn’t a deep closer like Dice Flavor; but Infinite Magic does do his best running late, and therefore he may also be compromised by today’s anticipated pace scenario. Note that Admiral Kitten, who took the Place behind Infinite Magic in the American Derby, came back to win the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes his next time out.
# 8 Kid Dreams (ML 8-1) finished off the board in his only stakes attempt; but he merits consideration as he enters this contest with the best last out Beyer. While today’s event is a furlong longer than that contest, Kid Dreams was sired by 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid; so the extra eighth of a mile shouldn’t pose any difficulties.
Currently leaning towards using # 4 Den's Legacy and # 9 Dice Flavor as my two "A" contenders in this one.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Unusually Green (ML 10-1) barely picked up his feet in his debut back in June; but he goes for a barn that gets one third of its entrants home when coming back after a two-three month vacation, with an ROI of $3.44. Couple that with the rider switch from Quinonez to Pedroza, and factor in the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and you have to give Unusually Green at least a puncher’s chance in this one.
# 3 Belgata (ML 6-1) is a first time starter for Trainer Adam Kitchingman, who hits approximately 17% of the time with debuters. The offspring of Belgata’s sire, Good Journey, win approximately 11.6% of the time in their initial tries.
# 4 Ajac (ML 5-1) took the Show at this level his last time out at five and a half furlongs over this track; the extra half-furlong today should help, as Ajac has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field. And as much as I love Chantal Sutherland, the rider switch to Rafael Bejarano must be seen as a positive.
# 5 Oh Daddy Oh (ML 5-2) makes his career debut for a barn that wins 23% of the time with first time starters. Oh Daddy Oh was sired by Scat Daddy, whose descendants get their picture taken after their first race approximately 14% of the time. Oh Daddy Oh’s public workouts are somewhat lacking in quantity, beginning as they do less than two months ago; but the works show no obvious breaks in pattern, which is definitely a plus.
# 8 Missing Groom (ML 9-2) was sired by Colonel John; whose offspring (in a very small sample size) have won approximately 18% of the time in their first attempts. Missing Groom is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who gets wins from his first time starters approximately one fourth of the time.
# 9 Charisma Code (ML 5-1) had a horrible trip his last time out and finished dead last. In each of his two prior tries at this level, both on synthetic surfaces, Charisma Code finished in the money.
None of the experienced runners in this contest has ever earned a Beyer Speed Figure within ten points of par for this level; nor have any of the experienced runners ever been the Post Time Favorite in any of their prior events. For those reasons, it makes sense to give strong consideration to the first time starters in this one; and # 5 Oh Daddy Oh and # 8 Missing Groom strike me as the two best in that category. Expect me to lean on those two when it comes time to make my Pick Four play.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 11 With a Miracle (ML 7-2) took the Place her last time out (as the Post Time Favorite), in a contest at this level but half a furlong shorter in length. In addition to having the best last out Beyer in this field, With a Miracle also has the best career Beyer on a synthetic surface among those competing in this event.
# 5 Flashy Dame (ML 9-2) took the Show behind With a Miracle her last time out, crossing the wire approximately three quarters of a length behind that one. The third place finish was Flashy Dame’s first in the money finish since breaking her maiden back in June 2012; not so coincidentally, it was also Flashy Dame’s first time in for tag in her career.
# 7 Chestnut Moon (8-1) goes first off the claim for Trainer Matthew Chew, who is one for five with such. The five times that Chestnut Moon has finished in the Exacta in her seventeen race career have all come in two turn events; so it’ll be interesting to see how she does in today’s one turn sprint for her new trainer.
# 6 Tiz Anna (ML 8-1) is trained by Vladimir Cerin, who has yet to get a winner home in the current Del Mar meet (though his horses have taken the Place eight times in twenty-nine tries). Tiz Anna will be trying winners for the first time today; but her Beyers do match up well with the rest of the field, and she has finished in the Trifecta in all four of her prior races on synthetic surfaces.
# 10 Dolphin Shorts (ML 8-1) is another trying winners for the first time today, albeit in a much shorter career than Tiz Anna; as Dolphin Shorts was able to break her maiden in just her second try. Dolphin Shorts is trained by Mike Mitchell, who gets his winners to do it again their next time out approximately 22% of the time.
# 3 Willetta (ML 12-1) took the Place over this track her last time out, albeit against cheaper ($16k N2L). Willetta gets a change in rider today, as the apprentice Irving Orozco is swapped out for Chantal Sutherland.
Right now I’m leaning towards making # 11 With a Miracle my single “A” contender in this one, as that will go a long way towards keeping costs down. But it’s very likely that I’ll also use # 5 Flashy Dame as an “A”; which will mean a lot shorter spread in the other contests. Certainly a matter requiring more thought.
Post Time for Race 8, which kicks off the Pick Four, is 8:30 EDT / 5:30 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my play posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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