Today is Pennsylvania Derby Day @ Parx, and to celebrate the track is offering an All-Stakes Pick Four on Saturday’s card. The Philadelphia forecast calls for 70% chance of rain; so while the track and course are currently fast and firm, gotta figure there’s a good chance that may change as the day goes on.
RACE 8 - [S] The Alphabet Soup Handicap $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Roadhog (Moring Line 2-1) looks like a class standout in this one, having taken three state restricted stakes in his last ten outings, along with just missing by a nose of taking this event last year.
# 3 Rustler Hustler (ML 5-1) looks to be just a step below # 2 Roadhog. I may noy use Rustler Hustler in my Pick Four play, but he looks like a good one to pair with Roadhog for an Exacta play.
# 12 Winchill (ML 7-2) is second choice on the Morning Line, but he looks out of his element on the grass; and his conditioner, Kathleen DeMasi, is oh for her last fifty-four when moving her charges from dirt to turf. But since this is an ungraded event, there is the possibility that this gets moved off the turf if the heavy rains should come; and if that happens, then Winchill’s stock goes way up.
RACE 9 - The Gallant Bob (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 11 Rainbow Heir (ML 3-1) suffered his first career defeat last time out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he ran out of gas in the stretch. Rainbow Heir will have a half furlong less to worry about in today’s contest, as well as getting a rider switch to Mike Smith.
# 12 Clearly Now (ML 4-1) took the Grade 3 Swale @ Gulfstream Park back in March of this year. While he’s been winless since, Clearly Now’s margin of defeat in his three races after that event were all by a margin of less than a length. Clearly Now is coming back from an eleven week vacation; Trainer Brian Lynch has an .18 Winning Percentage with entrants returning from a 61-180 day freshening. Note that Clearly Now has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in his eight race career.
# 13 Zeewat (ML 6-1) makes the step up in class today to Graded Stakes after having taken three listed stakes in his last eight outings. Zeewat is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
If you’re looking to roll the dice, a couple in this one who could upset at big prices are # 7 City of Weston (ML 20-1) and # 8 Majestic Hussar (ML 20-1). City of Weston may enjoy a pace advantage here, being a legitimate closer in a field filled with speed; while Majestic Hussar has two Wins and a Place in his three career tries on an off track; making him one of the very few in this field that have proven that they can handle an off track.
I may spread wide in this one, especially if the rains come, as none of the top three contenders listed above have competed on an off dirt track.
RACE 11 - (F) The Cotillion (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
# 9 Close Hatches (ML 5-2) looks to be a class standout in this one, having taken the Grade 1 Mother Goose @ Belmont along with the Grade 2 Gazelle @ Aqueduct in a six race career. The only other Grade 1 winner in this field is # 7 Sweet Lulu (ML 7-2) who took the Grade 1 Test Stakes at a distance of seven furlongs. This will be Close Hatches’ first race since that win in the Mother Goose in June; but she’s been firing bullets in her workouts, and Trainer Bill Mott does quite well with runners returning from a vacation of two to six months.
If we spread out from Close Hatches, other logical contenders include the aforementioned Sweet Lulu; Delaware Oaks winner # 3 Dancing Afleet (ML 15-1); Monmouth Oaks winner # 5 Seaneen Girl (ML 5-1); # 6 My Happy Face (ML 9-2) who took the Place in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks behind Princess of Sylmar, along with missing by just a neck and a head (respectively) of winning the Grade 1 Test and the Grade 1 Frizette; and # 10 Street Girl (ML 10-1) who won the Calder Oaks over a sloppy track.
Close Hatches has a clear class edge in this one, and if she runs back to her effort in the Mother Goose she’ll win for sure. But this is no walkover; if Close Hatches brings anything less than her best, this could be anyone’s game.
RACE 12 - The Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Will Take Charge (ML 2-1) and # 3 Moreno (ML 5-2) enter this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figures, earned in their one-two finish in the Grade 1 Travers, where they crossed the finish line just a nose apart. Interesting to note that Moreno has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers, while Will Take Charge made his big step forward after removing the hood.
# 1 Transparent and # 1A Romansh (ML 8-1) are the Godolphin entry who finished well out of the money in the Travers, as neither one wanted any part of the ten furlongs distance. Both should turn in better performances with today’s turnback in distance.
# 2 Speak Logistics (ML 5-1) just missed by a neck last time out in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones over this dirt track. As the track was muddy that day, Speak Logistics may be one to keep an eye on if the rains should come.
# 6 Fury Kapcori (ML 8-1) invades from the West for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Fury Kapcori has only one career race on a real dirt track, the Charlie Palmer Futurity, which he won as a two year old last October at Fresno.
# 5 Java’s War (ML 4-1) is a proven closer; but in this year’s Kentucky Derby, in which closers dominated, Java’s War could do no better than thirteenth. Perhaps he didn’t like the off track that day; something to consider if the clouds should open up today.
Okay; it's less than a half hour to post for Race 8, and still no rain. I decided to make # 2 Roadhog my single in Race 8; that allows me to get away with just two tickets.
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: 9
RACE 11: 3, 7
Cost: $6.00
Play this one for fifty cents:
RACE 8: 2
RACE 9: 11, 12, 13
RACE 10: ALL
RACE 11: 3, 6, 7
Cost: $40.50
TOTAL COST: $46.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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