Today's Super Derby Day at Louisiana Downs, and to celebrate they're offering a $100k guaranteed all-stakes Pick Four in Races 8 - 10 (inclusive). So while the fields are small, there may be value to be found.
RACE 8 - (F) The Happy Ticket $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Thegirlinthatsong (Morning Line 5-1) and # 2 Redgrass Cat (ML 7-2) finished just a neck apart in the Donnie Wilhite Memorial over this turf course last time out, with Redgrass Cat crossing the wire first. Both have worked well since that performance, and their respective Tomlinson Turf/Distance Ratings indicate that the extra half furlong of today’s contest shouldn’t pose any difficulties. Look for both to be in the mix at the end.
# 5 Bern Legacy (ML 4-1) was sired by the late Bernstein, so you know there’s both class and grass running through her genes. Note that the Place horse in Bern Legacy’s maiden win went on to graduate her next time out.
Juvenile fillies just may be the most unpredictable horses on the grounds; but I’m optimistic that I can get by in this one without having to spread too wide.
RACE 9 - The Temperance Hill $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 4 Gantry (ML 8-5) didn’t show his best his last time out in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes, though he did take the Place. Since that was Gantry’s debut on a synthetic surface, it may be fair to say that he did not appreciate having to compete on the fake stuff. One thing Gantry is sure to appreciate today is the absence of Delaunay, to whom Gantry has four times in his last six performances played second fiddle. Gantry’s Beyers in his last six races not run on plastic are 99, 99, and 96.
# 5 Louisiana Glory (ML 5-2) is the local hero in this one, with three Wins and a Place in his four career tries over the main dirt track. Louisiana Glory enters this one off back-to-back victories over this track at this distance, having earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in each of those contests. Louisiana Glory has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at this distance in his career.
# 8 Unitas (ML 8-1) makes a turn back in distance after finishing off the board in the Evangeline Mile Handicap; Trainer Brett Brinkman does quite well with that maneuver. Note that Unitas has won his last three races that weren’t run over a sealed track, including the $50k Need For Speed Stakes.
Gantry’s back class and speed figures would normally be enough to seriously consider making him a single. But the fact that this six year old has taken the Place five times in his last six starts could be a red flag that age has turned him into a hanger (or maybe Delaunay is just a lot better than I’m giving him credit for being).
RACE 10 - The Unbridled $100k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 7 Global Power (ML 2-1) is the defending champ here, having taken this event last year by taking the field gate to wire; worth noting is that was the only other time in Global Power’s career that he has competed over this turf course. Also worth noting is that Global Power enters this year’s event in a similar manner to last year; that is, by having wired the field in another $100k contest at a different turf course in his prior race. Derby Kitten, the Place horse in Global Power’s last, came back to win a $50k event at Ellis Park her next time out.
# 6 String King (ML 9-5) has done a fine job against his fellow Louisiana bred runners, winning four times and taking the Place twice in his last six contests in state restricted stakes. However, String King’s record against open company is somewhat less impressive; so while this may not be the strongest of fields, it is a step up the class ladder for String King.
# 4 Major Marvel (ML 2-1) enters today’s contest with a four race winning streak, and six victories in his last seven races. However, all those were in non-stakes events against much cheaper competition. So while there’s no disputing Trainer Michael Maker’s credentials, Major Marvel will definitely have to pick up his game in order to come away with first prize in this one.
RACE 11 - The Super Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Departing (ML 1-1) is the class leader here, being the only entrant with wins in Graded Stakes events, having won both the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby and the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Look for Departing to be bet far down from his Morning Line odds.
# 1 Bashaar (ML 7-2) has posted Beyers above ninety in each of his last three races. Bashaar’s fourth place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy his last time out is certainly not as impressive as a Grade 2 victory, but note that Bashaar was competing in a field that included Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice along with Travers Stakes winner Will Take Charge.
# 2 Holiday Mischief (ML 10-1) has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in the field, and is also the only contestant in today’s event with a win over the main Louisiana Downs track. Certainly rates an upset chance.
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT. My Pick Four tickets to follow shortly.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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