Big day in horse racing today as we move closer to the Breeders’ Cup. New York’s Belmont Park will be offering an all Grade 1 Stakes Pick Four that culminates with the Jockey Club Gold Cup; while in SoCal, Santa Anita will be presenting five Grade 1 events on its dance card. For our Pick Four play today, we look to the East.
RACE 7 - The Vosburgh Invitational (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Bahamian Squall (Morning Line 4-1), winner of the Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, has been showing good form of late, as evidenced by his steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three events. But his last time out, Bahamian Squall was defeated in the Grade 1 Alfred G Vanderbilt by two lengths by # 2 Justin Phillip (ML 3-1), who in turn was defeated his last time out by over three lengths in the Grade 1 Forego by # 4 Strapping Groom (ML 5-1).
Strapping Groom has yet to finish out of the Trifecta at Belmont Park, earning three wins (along with one Place and one Show) in his five career starts over this main track. But Strapping Groom likes to do his running on the front end; and when he goes for the lead today, he just may find # 8 Private Zone (ML 4-1) already there.
The Doug O’Neill trained Private Zone finally found the Winner’s Circle his last time out, his first victory since May 2012. In between those two wins Private Zone had a streak of four Place finishes in stakes events, including the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita. While Private Zone had the lead at some point in the stretch in all those races, he wasn’t able to hold on til the wire in any of them.
# 5 The Lumber Guy (ML 8-1) is another, like Strapping Groom and Private Zone, that does his best running early; though he can come from just off the pace, as he demonstrated in winning this event last year, and in taking the Place in the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. However, since the BC Sprint The Lumber Guy has made just three starts, and has not looked sharp in any of them.
So if those three decide to do battle on the front end, who will be the beneficiary of all that early speed? On form it would appear to be # 1 Forty Tales (ML 7-2) who came from over seven lengths back to win the Grade 2 Amsterdam @ Saratoga two starts back, and who came from thirteen lengths back to win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens over this Belmont main track the start before that. Forty Tales disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 King’s Bishop; but that performance can be forgiven, as Forty Tales suffered all sorts of traffic problems trying to rally late in that fourteen horse field.
This one looks to be very competitive, and a great one to kick off Belmont’s all Grade 1 Pick Four. I like Forty Tales, primarily because of the pace setup; though, to be honest, I’d like him a lot more if Joel Rosario was on his back (incidentally, Rosario is scheduled to return to riding October 12).
RACE 8 - (F) The Flower Bowl Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf Course
# 1A Laughing (Ire) (ML 8-5) is the class standout here, having earned over $800k in her twelve career turf starts. Laughing enters today’s contest with a three race winning streak, all in Graded Stakes. Laughing projects to be the lone speed in today’s race, so she should be able to do what she wants on the front end and set a reasonable pace. If all that’s not enough, Laughing will be coupled with # 1 Tannery, as both share the same owner (Richard Santulli) and trainer (Alan Goldberg); so if Laughing can’t last til the wire, there’s a good chance Tannery will be coming late.
# 3 Somali Lemonade (ML 8-1) showed great promise in winning the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes back in October 2011 as a two year old in her second career start, after breaking her maiden in her debut. But after winning her first two career races Somali Lemonade didn’t find the Winner’s Circle again until this past July, when she won the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap in Philadelphia. However, while she’s only gotten her picture taken three times in her career, Somali Lemonade has been competitive, and is second only to Laughing in this field in career turf earnings. Note also that this will be Somali Lemonade’s first career start at a distance greater than nine furlongs; as she is the daughter of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, it can be presumed that Somali Lemonade will appreciate the increased distance.
RACE 9 - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Widener Turf Course
As in The Flower Bowl (Race 8), The Turf Classic features a heavy favorite that is part of a coupled owner/trainer entry. Here we have # 2 Big Blue Kitten (ML 8-5) coming into this event off back-to-back Grade 1 victories in The Sword Dancer and The United Nations. Big Blue Kitten’s entry mate is # 2B Real Solution, the declared winner of this year’s Arlington Million after the DQ of Apache. As both Big Blue Kitten and Real Solution prefer to do their running late, Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and Trainer Chad Brown have also entered # 2X Joes Blazing Aaron, a front running speedster, to insure an honest pace.
# 5 Twilight Eclipse (ML 7-2) is two-for-three (with one Place) at this distance on the turf, including a record setting performance at Gulfstream Park earlier this year in the Grade 2 Pan American, where he covered the ten furlongs in 2:22.63. Most recently, Twilight Eclipse took the Place behind Big Blue Kitten in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga; the Trifecta that day being completed by # 3 Nutello (ML 8-1).
# 1A Boisterous (ML 4-1) is one half of the Owner Phipps Stables / Trainer Shug McGaughey entry, along with # 1 Imagining. However, since both have John Velazquez listed as their rider, its almost certain that one will be scratched. Boisterous defeated Big Blue Kitten back in June in the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes; in his next start, Boisterous defeated Twilight Eclipse in the Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes. But both of those events were run on a turf that was less than firm; likewise for Boisterous’ two Graded Stakes wins prior to that. So even if Boisterous should run today, I don’t expect to see his best effort unless a sudden unexpected shower should fall upon the Belmont grass.
# 8 Little Mike (ML 10-1) has not finished in the money since winning last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf, one of three Grade 1 victories for Little Mike in 2012. Mike Smith will be along for the ride today.
RACE 10 - The Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 6 Flat Out (ML 3-1) is the defending two-time champ, looking to become the only horse other than Kelso to win this event three years in a row (for the record, Kelso won the Jockey Club Gold Cup five straight years, 1960-1964). Flat Out stands as the one to beat here, as he enters this race in top form, having posted steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in his last three races, all in triple digits.
# 8 Cross Traffic (ML 5-2) looks to be the lone speed in this event, and could have things all alone to himself on the front end for a good portion of this race. Cross Traffic just misses by a nose (in the Grade 1 Metropolitan) and a head (in the Grade 3 Westchester) of being a perfect five-for-five for his career. The question is, can he last ten furlongs?
Kentucky Derby winner # 2 Orb (ML 9-2) squares off again against Belmont Stakes winner # 7 Palace Malice (ML 4-1) as they both compete against older horses for the first time in their respective careers. They are the only three year olds in this field, and will each carry four pounds less than the other entrants.
# 5 Alpha (ML 8-1) beat Flat Out by a head last time out in the slop in the Grade 1 Woodward. # 3 Last Gunfighter (ML 10-1) has won seven of his last eight; his only loss in that stretch being when he took the Place behind Flat Out in the Grade 2 Suburban. # 1 Ron the Greek (ML 12-1) does his best running late; there may not be be enough pace for him to chase in this one.
# 4 Vitoria Olimpica (Brz) is “the other Pletcher” in this one (besides Cross Traffic and Palace Malice) and gets the rider switch from Johnny V to Irad Ortiz Jr; just like Capo Bastone in The King’s Bishop (Winner @ 28-1) and Peace Preserver in The Noble Dancer (Winner @ 16-1).
Flat Out strikes me as the best in this field, and this is his race to lose. The only major threat I see is if Cross Traffic gets loose on an easy lead, in which case it will be a question of whether or not Cross Traffic can hold on until the wire. Another problem could be if Flat Out has to get on the lead with Cross Traffic to keep him honest; in which case Palace Malice and/or Orb could be sitting close enough to pick up the pieces if those two fade.
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four tickets posted at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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