2/26/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - The Wintergreen - # 4 Breeze Rider (Final Odds 0.90*) - "A" Selection & "C" Selection & "C" Selection*

Race 6 - # 3 Stonevicious (4.40) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 10 Monologue (4.80) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Winging Ways (3.30) - "B" Selection

* - # 1 Runaway Dreamer, a "C" Selection, and # 3 Ya Beauty (GB), also a "C" Selection, were late scratches from Race 5; I therefore received Post Time Favorite Breeze Rider in their place.

The good news is that I got my big ticket single home, Breeze Rider, in the opening leg.  Unfortunately, there was no good news in the second leg, as my "A" Selection, # 5 Headline Report (1.40*) was outdueled early by Stonevicious, the eventual winner.  Stonevicious then easily held off my "B" Selection, # 1 Twenty Four Mamba (2.50), late, thus making Saturday a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  4 / 3 / 10 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $409.65 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/26/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“If you have no confidence in self, you are twice defeated in the race of life.” - Marcus Garvey

The $100k Wintergreen Stakes, a one mile event for older fillies and mares, is Saturday's featured race in Florence, KY.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) The Wintergreen $100k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 4 Breeze Rider (Morning Line 9-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Runway Dreamer (ML 50-1)
# 2 Rogue Too (ML 15-1)

# 3 Ya Beauty (GB) (ML 30-1)

# 5 Alydiva (ML 4-1)
# 6 Lady Lawyer (ML 6-1)
# 7 Fate Factor (ML 12-1)
# 8 Zamzam (ML 30-1)

# 9 Josie (ML 10-1)
# 10 Wait for Nairobi (ML 5-1)

# 11 Natalies Charm (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 12 Ambassador Luna (ML 15-1)

If you're gonna single, might as well do it in the very first leg and get it over with.  I spent a lot of time considering which price horses should also be included on my main ticket.  For example, Alydiva, winner of the $100k Likely Exchange over this track last time out, looks to be in top form and can be expected to improve.  Wait for Nairobi, Place finisher in the $100k Wishing Well, and Natalies Charm, are two more that could certainly pull the upset today.

But ultimately I decided that Breeze Rider is a legitimate Favorite in this contest, and adding other runners to the main ticket in this leg would not be money well spent.  At least, in my humble opinion.  So it's Breeze Rider solo on the main ticket this leg, with all other entrants being used as backup "C" Selection.

RACE 6 - OC 50k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Headline Report (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 1 Twenty Four Mamba (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Ready Pursuit (ML 12-1)

# 3 Stonevicious (ML 9-2)

# 4 Speighty War (ML 15-1)

# 6 Nay Say (Ire) (ML 5-2)

For the record, none of these runners are in for a tag.  Headline Report is the class horse in this field, and Headline Report projects to be the lone speed in this contest.  A legitimate argument could be made that Headline Report should be a single on my main ticket.

But Headline Report will be doing a few things for the first time Saturday.  This race will be the first time that Headline Report will be competing on a synthetic surface.  This will also be the first race in Headline Report's career that he will be running without Jockey John Velazquez on his back.  This contest will be the first time that Headline Report has to travel eight furlongs.  Finally, Headline Report will be running for the first time in his career without blinkers.

So all the above led me to the conclusion that using Headline Report solo on the main ticket was not the way to go.  Twenty Four Mamba took the Place in the $100k Leonatus over this main track last time out.  So it'll be two deep for me in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 1 Arronautic (ML 3-1)

B's

# 6 The Gatekeeper (ML 6-1)

# 7 Makin Bank (ML 12-1)

# 10 Monologue (ML 5-2)

# 11 Robust (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Frosty Dreams (ML 20-1)
# 3 Master Lea (ML 20-1)

# 4 Southern Sense (ML 12-1)
# 5 Sir Clouseau (ML 10-1)

# 8 Southern Anthem (ML 20-1)

# 9 Shannonrun (ML 10-1)

# 12 Box of Joe (ML 12-1)

Scratch the Also Eligible, # 1A Formation (ML 3-1)

Arronautic and The Gatekeeper, trained by Brad Cox and Mark Casse, respectively, are first time starters sired by Arrogate, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, as well as at a route distance.  Makin Bank didn't have an easy go of it last time out, and should be given another shot, especially with the added distance.

Monologue, a son of Runhappy, may improve with the surface switch.  Robust ran well enough in his debut last time out once he realized that there was a race going on and that he was in it.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - Clm $5k N2Y - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Smuggler's Ghost (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 1 Improbable Story (ML 20-1)

# 2 Winging Ways (ML 7-2)

# 4 Spend Benjamins (ML 3-1)

# 6 Drink (ML 6-1)

# 7 Topping (ML 6-1)

C's

# 8 Try Try Again (ML 30-1)

# 9 Frontana (ML 6-1)

# 11 North Elkhorn (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 5 Call West (ML 15-1) and # 10 Onward (ML 20-1)

This race is restricted to runners which have not won two races since August 26, 2021; but note that races where the runner was entered for $4k or less don't count.

Smuggler's Ghost is actually racing above his conditions, as Smuggler's Ghost does not have any victories since June 11, 2021.  But Smuggler's Ghost appears to be in top form, and Smuggler's Ghost's last two defeats were by just a nose and neck.

Improbable Story could move up with the drop in class.  Winging Ways won by daylight over this track at today's distance last time out.

Spend Benjamins is being reunited with Jockey Gerado Corrales, who was on his back the last time that Spend Benjamins got his picture taken.  Drink was victorious routing over this track last time out; and Drink could do well with the turnback in distance.

Topping is another in this field that won by daylight last time out over this track last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 5 with 1 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,5 with 1,6,7,10,11 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 with 5 with 1 with 3 $5.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 3 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 2,3,4,5,8,9,12 with 3 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 4 with 5 with 1 with 8,9,11 $1.50

Total: $43.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 8:14 EST / 5:14 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/20/22 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Results

Race 4 - # 10 Really Big News (Final Odds 2.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 5 - # 1 Time for Ebby (2.60) - "B" Selection

Race 6 - # 3 Rosenquist (8.20) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 10 Smitten by Kitten (1.20*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The San Simeon - # 3 Barraza (1.80) - "C" Selection

Race 9 - # 4 Fluent (5.00) - "B" Selection

I didn't use Barraza in the San Simeon (the fifth leg of the sequence) on my main ticket, and that must be viewed as a good thing; because me not using Barraza on my main ticket means that I am spared writing and you are all spared reading about the horrible trip which my big ticket single, # 2 Hollywoodhellraisr (0.60*) received in Race 6.  But since I didn't use Barraza on my main ticket what happened in Race 6 is of no consequence, because even if Hollywoodhellraisr wins Race 6 Sunday was still going to be a day for me to contribute instead of collect.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Rainbow Pick Six sequence of  10 / 1 / 3 / 10 / 3 / 4  were rewarded with a payout of $6,033.62 for their twenty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/20/22 Santa Anita Rainbow Pick Six - Preview

“Decision making, like coffee, needs a cooling process.” - George Washington

Sunday arrives smack in the middle of a Holiday weekend in the United States; President's Day, to be exact.  Sunday also brings with it a mandatory payout of the Jackpot Pick Six in Arcadia, California.  So with "free" money on the table, let me see if I can get myself a slice, as I take a run at The Rainbow Pick Six at The Great Race Place.

RACE 4 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 10 Really Big News (Morning Line 4-1)

B's

# 1 Chipper (ML 8-1)

# 2 Thrive (ML 3-1)

# 7 Square Cat (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Ardie the Legend (ML 8-1)

# 4 Limited Heatwave (ML 8-1)
# 5 Area Code (ML 7-2)
# 6 Talkiesworkmore (ML 20-1)

# 8 Exclamation (ML 20-1)
# 9 Sawasdee (ML 20-1)

Really Big News finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts; and it's reasonable to expect Really Big News to improve off his last race, as he will be going second off the layoff.

Chipper took the Place against open (non-statebred restricted) company last time out; and Chipper could be speed on the rail today.  Thrive has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his four career starts; I wonder if that's a record?  But Thrive also finished in the Trifecta in all four of those starts, so I don't see how you can leave him off your ticket here.

Square Cat took the Show behind Really Big News last time out, and Square Cat can be expected to be prominent early.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $10k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Rain Diva (ML 5-2)

B’s

# 1 Time for Ebby (ML 5-1)

# 4 Tiz Toffee (ML 4-1)

# 5 It's a Riddle (ML 5-1)

C's

# 2 Big Passion (ML 12-1)
# 3 Your Royal Coil (ML 3-1)

# 6 Island Life (ML 10-1)

# 8 Truly Fabulous (ML 12-1)

Rain Diva, three-for-five lifetime over this track, is getting some much needed class relief.  Time for Ebby, coming off a nine month layoff, probably needs a race.  But even if she's not at her best, Time for Ebby can win at this level with a less than stellar effort.

Tiz Toffee tends to run well at today's distance, and Tiz Toffee has run well in the past off works.  It's a Riddle could improve with the cut back in distance.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 6 - Md $62.5k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Hollywoodhellraisr (ML 5-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Halfbarberbingie (ML 12-1)

# 3 Rosenquist (ML 4-1)
# 4 World Cruiser (ML 4-1)
# 5 Got Curly (ML 8-1)

# 6 Batukhan (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Hulk (ML 7-2)

If you're looking for my single, here it is.  Hollywoodhellraisr is dropping in for a tag for the first time for Trainer Phil D'Amato, and I see no reason to try to beat him.  So it's Hollywoodhellraisr solo on my main ticket, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Race Judicata (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 1 Mucha Woman (ML 6-1)

# 10 Smitten by Kitten (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Shanghai Sunrise (ML 8-1)

# 4 Delta Wind (ML 4-1)

# 5 Premiumonsaturday (ML 12-1)

# 7 All Dialed In (ML 5-1)

# 8 Blackjack Betty (ML 20-1)

# 9 Smoothlikebuttah (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 2 Omg It's Jessica (ML 15-1)

Race Judicata defeated open (non-statebred restricted) company last time; and Race Judicata has won in the past navigating just one turn.

Smitten by Kitten and Mucha Woman filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - The San Simeon (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A's

# 7 Bombard (ML 4-1)

B's

# 2 Commander (Fr) (ML 6-1)

# 4 Beer Can Man (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Chaos Theory (ML 10-1)

# 3 Barraza (ML 2-1)

# 5 Guildsman (Fr) (ML 20-1)

# 6 Bran (Fr) (ML 6-1)

# 8 Indian Peak (ML 15-1)

Bombard, making his 2022 debut, tends to run well over this turf course.  Commander (Fr) could be the one running best late.  Beer Can Man, Place finisher in the Grade 2 Joe Hernandez last time out, joins the barn of Trainer Phil D'Amato, who is having a very fine meeting.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Ruby Ray (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Countess Rosina (Ire) (ML 9-5)

# 4 Fluent (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Dear Beau (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 3 Scenic Masterpiece (ML 10-1)

# 6 Angel Nadeshiko (ML 20-1)

# 8 Everystepoftheway (ML 15-1)

# 9 Glenall (Ire) (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 5 Snark (ML 6-1)

Ruby Ray took the Place at this class level last time out.  Countess Rosina (Ire) is making her North American debut today, and Countess Rosina appears to be well meant here.

Fluent got plenty of exercise last time out.  Fluent could improve with the return to one turn racing.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P6: 10 with 7 with 2 with 6 with 7 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.20 P6: 1,2,7,10 with 1,4,5,7 with 2 with 1,6,10 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 $86.40

A's with One C

$0.20 P6: 3,4,5,6,8,9 with 7 with 2 with 6 with 7 with 7 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 10 with 2,3,6,8 with 2 with 6 with 7 with 7 $0.80

$0.20 P6: 10 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 6 with 7 with 7 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 10 with 7 with 2 with 3,4,5,7,8,9 with 7 with 7 $1.20

$0.20 P6: 10 with 7 with 2 with 6 with 1,3,5,6,8 with 7 $1.00

$0.20 P6: 10 with 7 with 2 with 6 with 7 with 1,3,6,8,9 $1.00

Total: $93.80

Post Time for Race 4 is 5:10 EST / 2:10 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/12/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 7 - The Valdale - # 6 Marissa's Lady (Final Odds 0.40*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 7 Schlofmitz (2.60) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - The Forego - # 6 Visitant (0.20*) - "A" Selection

Race 10 - # 9 Bullbriar (65.50) - "B" Selection

Long story short: As I had hoped, a five furlong sprint didn't give Bullbriar enough time to decide to stop running Saturday, as he had in his two prior career starts.  Good job by Trainer Anthony Guida in conditioning Bullbriar for this contest.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 3 Sky Bolt (2.10*) - $21.90 Finish: 3rd

# 4 Pro Bono (2.30) - $19.20 Finish: 6th

# 6 C F V Nobodycares (26.80) - $105.60 Finish: 4th

# 8 Keep Scrolling (17.50) -$125.35 Finish: 8th

# 10 Tempesta (3.00) - $40.95 Finish: 5th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  6 / 7 / 6 / 9  which paid $230.25 for a fifty cent wager.  That makes for a profit of $146.25 on my initial $84 investment, or approximate odds of 1.74-1.

I hope you all had it with me.  May God bless us as we spend our winnings.

Onto the next race!

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/12/22 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“I'm a success today because I had a friend who believed in me and I didn't have the heart to let him down.” - Abraham Lincoln

Saturday's card in Florence, Kentucky features a pair of Listed Stakes which were originally scheduled to have been run in January, but were postponed due to weather.  Since both events have found their way onto the Final Four contests on this Super Bowl Eve card, I'll be looking over (as opposed to over looking) each of them below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 7 - (F) The Valdale $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 6 Marissa's Lady (Morning Line 1-1)

B's

# 4 Bubble Rock (ML 7-5)

C's

# 1 Beautiful Empire (ML 6-1)
# 2 Zawish (ML 12-1)

# 3 Murgatroyd (ML 30-1)

# 7 Royal County (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 5 Tap Dancing Lady (ML 15-1)

As can be seen above, I'm not anticipating any shockers in this event.  As can also be seen above, I'm taking a bit of the coward's way out by using both of the main contenders on the main ticket, rather than trying to choose one over the other.

Marissa's Lady has done nothing wrong in her three race career for Trainer Billy Morey; and Marissa's Lady has demonstrated that she can win from midfield or from up on the pace.  Bubble Rock, trained by Brad Cox, got knocked around pretty good last time out in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Providing that beating didn't make her gun shy, the only question with Bubble Rock is is her form will carryover from the turf to the synthetic.

So hopefully they'll be no surprises in this leg, as I'm using the two best runners in this event on my main ticket, and all other entrants as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - (F) Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Thefabulous Moolah (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Quaria Thunder (ML 7-2)

# 7 Schlofitz (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Split Decision (ML 20-1)

# 4 Miss Invincible (ML 15-1)
# 5 La Neblina (ML 12-1)
# 6 Scartini Martini (ML 10-1)
# 8 Daniella's Cause (ML 12-1)
# 9 Bodacious Baby (ML 12-1)

# 10 Lantern's Candy (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 11 Justastar (ML 10-1)

Thefabulous Moolah drops in for a tag for the first time, and Thefabulous Moolah looks well meant here.  Quaria Thunder and Schlofitz are both making their second career starts after having performed well in their respective debuts.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - The Forego $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Visitant (ML 1-1)

B's

# 4 Divine Leader (ML 7-2)

# 7 Sir Alfred James (ML 9-5)

# 8 Race Driver (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Spectacular Gem (ML 30-1)
# 2 Pole Setter (ML 30-1)

# 3 Majestic Valley (ML 50-1)

# 5 Three Technique (ML 15-1)

# 9 Iwillpersevere (ML 50-1)

Visitant, trained by Billy Morey, has won four of his five career starts over this track; and Visitant demonstrated last time out that he was over whatever ailed him in his run in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster back in June.  Divine Leader brought his dirt form with him in his synthetic debut last time out, and if Divine Leader can improve on that effort then he must be considered a contender today.

Sir Alfred James had a rough go of it last time out in the $100k Duncan F Kenner; a smoother trip today should put Sir Alfred James right into the mix.  Race Driver, a well beaten Place behind Visitant last time out, can win from anyway on the track; which could prove useful today, as there's a very real possibility of a pace meltdown in this event.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - Md $5k - Five Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Sky Bolt (ML 7-2)

B's

# 4 Pro Bono (ML 7-2)

# 6 C F V Nobodycares (ML 10-1)

# 8 Keep Scrolling (ML 15-1)

# 9 Bullbriar (ML 20-1)

# 10 Tempesta (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 My Pal Johnny (ML 8-1)

# 2 Little Cairo (ML 12-1)

# 5 Barbarino (ML 10-1)

# 7 White Silver Sands (ML 30-1)

# 11 Blowdacoalwhistle (ML 15-1)

# 12 King T'challa (ML 20-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Lasttraintoboston (ML 15-1) and # 14 Intend (ML 6-1)

This is the lowest claiming rank on the grounds; it's a five furlong sprint; and none of these entrants finished in the money last time out.  So, yeah, I'm expecting this event to have a little chaos.

Sky Bolt ran out of gas last time out after taking the Place in each of his prior two races.  Perhaps the shorter distance will prove to be to Sky Bolt's liking.  Pro Bono has been steadily dropping in class in an attempt to find a level at which he can win.  Perhaps having Rafael Bejarano on his back for the first time will give Pro Bono what he needs to graduate.

C F V Nobodycares is dropping into this class level for the first time.  If everything falls apart up front, C F V Nobodycares could be the one running best late.  Keep Scrolling showed good early speed in each of her two prior tries over this main track.  Perhaps Keep Scrolling will get a jump on the boys today and they'll just watch her backside as she gets under the wire first.

Bullbriar didn't even bother to finish in his two tries at routing.  Perhaps Bullbriar will find five furlongs much more to his liking.  Tempesta is dropping in for the cheapest tag of his career; maybe the five year old gelding proves that the fifteenth time is the charm.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 6 with 3 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 2,3,7 with 4,6,7,8 with 3,4,6,8,9,10 $72.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,7 with 2 with 6 with 3 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,4,5,6,8,9,10 with 6 with 3 $3.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 1,2,3,5,9 with 3 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,5,7,11,12 $3.00

Total: $84.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 9:16 EST / 6:16 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/6/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 5 Quick Buck (Final Odds 0.80*) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 1 Taming the Tigress (0.40*) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - The Robert B Lewis - # 1 Messier (0.60*) - "A" Selection

Race 9 - # 7 Principe Carlo (1.90*) - "A" Selection

The four asterisks above should tell you all that you need to know about Sunday's Late Pick Four.  Certainly having the sequence chalk out, with each leg being won by the Post Time Favorite, is a hazard that can be encountered whenever one plays a multi-race sequence.  But when the fields are small, as they were today, a Four Favorites outcome is guaranteed to produce a paltry payout.

For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:

# 4 I’m Corfu (12.10) - $35.70 Finish: 3rd

# 5 Smileforme (21.90) - $67.10 Finish: 7th

# 6 Teton Valley (2.60) - $12.05 Finish: 2nd

# 8 Sea to Success (12.80) - $37.30 Finish: 8th

# 9 Truth Seeker (17.30) - $64.55 Finish: 4th

But that's what might have been.  What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 1 / 1 / 7  which paid $8.40 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is considerably less than my initial investment of $37.50.  And while cashing at a loss beats not cashing at all, in this case, not by much.  And it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/6/22 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"There are no constraints on the human mind, no walls around the human spirit, no barriers to our progress except those we ourselves erect." - Ronald Reagan

The Road to the Kentucky Derby goes through Southern California Sunday, as the Grade 3 Robert B Lewis for three year olds is the card's featured race.  So seven days before Super Bowl LVI arrives on the scene at the former Hollywood Park, a place where champions truly shined, let's see if I can shine some light on this final four sequence, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Magnificent Ride (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 1 Over Regulated (ML 6-1)

# 3 Syzslak (ML 6-1)

# 4 Dick Best (ML 7-2)

# 5 Quick Buck (ML 5-2)

C's

6 Heaven's Music (ML 3-1)

7 The Sandy Surprise (ML 10-1)

Note that this contest is restricted to California bred or California sired Maidens; so while Syzsiak is actually a Washington bred colt, since Syzsiak's sire, Danzing Candy stands in California (Rancho San Miguel, to be precise) Syzsiak is eligible to run in this contest.

Magnificent Ride wanted no part of the turf in his debut last time out.  Magnificent Ride has shown that he can run on the main track in the morning, as evidenced by his bullet gate work on January 17.  Now it's just a question as to whether or not Magnificent Ride can repeat that effort in the afternoon.

I'm using all the first time starters as "B" Selections, with the exception of The Sandy Surprise.  Heaven's Music was a borderline decision.  Ultimately I decided to leave Heaven's Music off the main ticket, as I feel Heaven's Music, who has failed three times in his eight race career as the Post Time Favorite, simply needs to be put in against cheaper stock in order to graduate.

RACE 7 - (F) [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Little Miss Ellie (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 1 Taming the Tigress (ML 6-5)

C's

# 3 Donut Girl (ML 12-1)

# 5 Northern Gem (ML 8-1)

# 6 Righteously (ML 6-1)

# 7 Wishtheyallcouldbe (ML 3-1)

Scratch # 2 Blackjack Berry (ML 15-1)

For those who note such things, Blackjack Betty and Donut Girl are the two entrants that are eligible to be claimed for the $20k price tag.  This is somewhat interesting because Blackjack Betty, who has had only two career starts, is eligible to run here sans tag.  This is one of those times that I wish that horse racing had press coverage similar to other sports in the United States, so that someone would ask the connections why they've chosen to go this route.  EDIT - Blackjack Betty has been scratched by the track veterinarian, which perhaps helps explain why her connections were so eager to sell her off via the claim box.

Little Miss Ellie didn't show much in her one prior turf try; but I'm going to forgive that result as Little Miss Ellie did not get the best of trips that day.  Little Miss Ellie certainly fits well here on class; so if Little Miss Ellie can bring her dirt form onto the grass with her, then Little Miss Ellie could be the one getting her picture taken when this one is over.

Taming the Tigress certainly looks best here, as evidenced by the 6-5 Morning Line odds.  But Taming the Tigress has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three races; and Taming the Tigress has yet to cross under the wire first when competing on the turf.  Taming the Tigress is much too good to leave off the big ticket, in my opinion; but if I was playing this race alone, it is unlikely that I would use Taming the Tigress in the top position in any exotic wagers.

So it's two deep for me on the main ticket in this leg, with all others to be used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - The Robert B Lewis (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Messier (ML 6-5)

B's

None

C's

# 2 Sir London (ML 9-5)
# 3 Cabo Spirit (ML 8-1)

# 4 Wharton (ML 4-1)
# 5 Happy Jack (ML 6-1)

Kentucky Derby points are on the line in this event, and all but one of these runners will receive at least one point for their efforts today.

In my opinion, the Bob Baffert trained Messier, making his 2022 debut, is just too good not to use as a single in this leg.  Messier was convincing in his graduation, which is Messier's one prior race over this track.  Messier was the clear winner in the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar, and the Place runner in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Derby.  I expect the shorter stretch drive at Santa Anita compared to Los Alamitos will work to Messier's advantage.

So it's Messier solo on the big ticket for this contest.  I'll be using all other entrants as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 9 - Alw 25000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Principe Carlo (ML 9-5)

B’s

# 4 I'm Corfu (ML 6-1)

# 5 Smileforme (ML 15-1)

# 6 Teton Valley (ML 4-1)

# 8 Sea to Success (ML 20-1)
# 9 Truth Seeker (ML 15-1)

C's

# 1 Admirably (ML 4-1)
# 2 Joe Don Looney (ML 12-1)

# 3 Rookie Mistake (ML 5-1)

For those accustomed to playing Starter Allowance races in California, note that this contest has no restrictions with regard career victories.  So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $25k or less this year, last year, or the year before, is eligible to run here.

Principe Carlo is a stakes winner in the California bred restricted ranks.  While I can't say with any degree of certainty just how a Cal-bred stakes compares to an open company Starter Allowance in terms of class, I do feel confident that Principe Carlo is not worse here.  However, I think it's a good idea to spread some in this leg.

I'm Corfu, Teton Valley, and Truth Seeker are all getting significant class relief in this contest.  Smileforme is going first off the claim for Trainer Lorenzo Ruiz, who tends to do well with such.

Sea to Success could be the early leader despite the outside draw; and Sea to Success has run well in the past over this main track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 7 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 with 4,5,6,7,8,9 $30.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4 with 1 with 7 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,6,7 with 1 with 7 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 2,3,4,5 with 7 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 2 with 4 with 1 with 1,2,3 $1.50

Total: $37.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:06 EST / 3:06 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo