2/23/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - # 1 Taperinea (Final Odds 3.09) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 6 Queen Tapiture (1.21*) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - # 5 Quaria Comet (3.51) - "B" Selection

Race 8 - # 7 Jenny Lind (17.72) - No Selection

Trainer Steve Asmussen, he of the ten thousand lifetime Wins (and growing), has not had a great deal of success at Turfway Park these past couple of years.  Indeed, at this current Turfway Park meeting Asmussen had only one winner out of the first twenty-nine mounts that he sent to post.  I feel that it's important for me to mention that, for posterity; because there will be a day sometime in the future when people will look at the winners above, research who their trainers were, and wonder how in the world was the conditioner with over ten thousand Wins able to get a runner home that was so ignored by the public that it paid $37.44 for a two dollar Win bet.

Oh, and to further convey how Turfway Park can sometimes be a place separate and apart from all other North American race tracks, taking the Place behind Jenny Lind in the nightcap was the Brad Cox trainee # 1 Friction (8.69).  As I type this, Brad Cox is the leader in money earned so far in 2023, with $2,936,070.

So the Exacta in the nightcap at Turfway Park Thursday was a horse trained by the All-Time North American leader in Lifetime Wins on top, and a horse trained by the current year's leader in purse money earned in North America underneath.

That Exacta paid $171.79 for a buck.

As for me and my play:

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  1 / 6 / 5 / 7  were rewarded with a payout of $2,216.00 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/23/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"We should not look back unless it is to derive useful lessons from past errors, and for the purpose of profiting by dearly bought experience." - George Washington

There's a brutal winter storm covering a significant portion of the United States; so if you're in its path, please stay warm, and please stay safe.  Fortunately, the storm has seemingly stayed away from Florence, KY, which thankfully allows us to enjoy a bit of a diversion, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) Clm $5k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Redhot Katie (Morning Line 12-1)

B’s

# 13 Dance the Day Away (ML 5-1)+

C's

# 1 Taperinea (ML 10-1)

# 5 Wherethemoneywent (ML 8-1)

# 7 Moonlight Rain (ML 3-1)+

Scratch # 4 No Nannette No (ML 7-2); # 11 Honey Bourbon (ML 10-1); and # 14 Hero of the Best (ML 20-1)

There're few things like having one of your "A" Selections scratch less than an hour before first post. to make you scramble.  But that's where I'm at, as No Nannette No was an easy top pick for me in this leg.

With the scratch of No Nannette No, Redhot Katie inherits the top spot.  Redhot Katie just won at this class level last time out (a Win which was subsequently reversed due to Redhot Katie having tested positive for something which she should not have had in her system).  If Redhot Katie was, say, below 9-2, I probably would have used her as a backup Selection; but I just couldn't say no to 12-1; or, for that matter, even half those odds.

Dance the Day Away, trained by Jonathan Wong, draws in off the Also Eligible List.  Wong's stable has been cold of late; but I see that as more of a fluke than a continuing trend.

As for the Morning Line Favorite, Moonlight Rain, I still see her as a play against, despite the scratch of my top pick.  Moonlight Rain has just disappointed too many times as the Post Time Favorite of late for my tastes; especially at such a short price as she will be today.  So if using Moonlight Rain as a backup Selection means that I don't collect tonight, than so be it.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $30k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Night Kiss (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Inside Girl (ML 20-1)

# 4 Elegance (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Lily's Home (ML 10-1)

# 3 Jubilant Joanie (ML 12-1)

# 5 Three Sport Coats (ML 6-1)

# 6 Queen Tapiture (ML 2-1)+

# 7 I'mherefortheparty (ML 8-1)+

# 8 Captive Star (ML 30-1)
# 11 Dont Needno Prince (ML 20-1)

# 13 Classic Farewell (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 10 Story Channel (ML 30-1); # 12 Snow Crane (ML 20-1); and # 14 Rapping Wish (ML 10-1)

I've moved the Morning Line Favorite, Queen Tapiture, down to backup status on my tickets.  I'll be honest; this was a tough call for me.  Queen Tapiture ran well enough in each of her last two races to have won, taking the Place in both.  And that's bullet point on Queen Tapiture's resume that simultaneously speaks to why she could easily win today, and why she's a solid play against.

Queen Tapiture has had four previous races at this class level; three of which were at Turfway Park.  Of those at Turfway Park, Queen Tapiture has taken the Place in all three.  Looking at it as a war of attrition, Queen Tapiture could rule today, as those who have previously vanquished her are no longer on the battlefield.  But at some point it must be presumed that Queen Tapiture simply does not want to cross under the wire first versus the other runners at this class level.  I'm making that presumption today.  We'll know after the race if I presumed correctly.

RACE 7 - (F) ALW N3L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 11 Vaccine of Hope (ML 6-1)

B's

# 5 Quaria Comet (ML 7-2)

# 6 Maotal (ML 15-1)+

C's

# 2 Ride the Plan (ML 20-1)

# 3 Roc's Princess (ML 15-1)

# 4 Your So Sillea (ML 5-1)+

# 7 Save the Flag (ML 50-1)

# 8 Awesome Treat (ML 3-1)+

# 9 Intrigue (ML 9-2)+

# 10 Hermana (ML 15-1)

# 12 Promises to Dance (ML 8-1)+

Scratch # 1 Rookery (ML 30-1)

I'm going to draw a line through Vaccine of Hope's last outing, as I expect most handicappers will.  Which means that I'll consider myself quite fortunate should the Wesley Ward Trained Vaccine of Hope leave the gate at 5-2.  Still, at that price Vaccine of Hope in my opinion would still be a nice value.

Maotal will be a nice one to have is the cutback in distance allows he to return to the form that she showed two starts back.  Quaria Comet could be the one that they'll have to catch to win.  Quaria Comet could have company up front early from the Brad Cox trained Promises to Dance; but, and maybe I'm being stubborn, I think Promises to Dance should be competing around two turns.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 10 Golden Runner (ML 8-1)

B's

# 11 Opening Act (ML 2-1)+

C's

# 1 Friction (ML 5-1)+

# 2 Varsity Blonde (ML 8-1)

# 3 Best Performer (ML 7-2)+

# 4 Rolo Bolo (ML 20-1)

# 5 Spring Lilacs (ML 12-1)+

# 12 Bamberooski (ML 15-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Thestral (ML 6-1) and # 14 Time to Race (ML 8-1)

If you want to flip the positions of Golden Runner and Opening Act above you go right ahead.  I promise that you won't hurt my feelings, because I've flip-flopped them at least a half dozen times over the past six hours.  In fact, if I had another six hours to think it over, I'd probably flip-flop them again.  But sooner or later the clock strikes midnight; and so it is here.

Alright; for those who dig charts, here are the above Selections in that format:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	6,	13,		7	1,5
LEG 2	9,		1,4	6,7	2,3,5,8,11,13
LEG 3	11,	6,	5,	4,8,9,12	2,3,7,10
LEG 4	10,	11,		1,3,5	2,4,12

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I created based upon the above selections:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 9 with 11 with 10 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 6,11 with 10,11 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 1,4,9 with 5,6,11 with 10,11 $18.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 7 with 9 with 6,11 with 10,11 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 6,7 with 6,11 with 10,11 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 4,8,9,12 with 10,11 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 6,13 with 9 with 6,11 with 1,3,5 $6.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 9 with 11 with 10 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3,5,8,11,13 with 11 with 10 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 2,3,7,10 with 10 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 9 with 11 with 2,4,12 $1.50

Total: $58.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/11/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Results

Race 5 - The Valdale - # 5 B G Warrior (Final Odds 41.88) - "C" Selection

Race 6 - # 9 Go Bali Go (18.23) - "C+" Selection

Race 7 - # 8 Wadsworth (1.58*) - "A" Selection

Race 8 - # 2 Seven and Seven (3.30*) - "A" Selection

Well, I was right to be suspicious of the Favorite in The $125k Valdale, the Wesley Ward trained # 9 Murky (0.84*).  It was just too bad that I didn't think more highly of the filly who defeated her.  Still, getting two "A" Selections home was a pretty cool way to end the sequence, even if they both were Post Time Favorites.  Hopefully that duo will build some momentum in my favor for my next go 'round.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of  5 / 9 / 8 / 2  were rewarded with a payout of $5,649.86 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/11/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

"The harder you want to control something the more it gets out of your control.  Stay within yourself and play your game." - Clayton Kershaw

Sticking with the plan to chase The Late Pick Five only on days where the pool is being fed with a carryover, Saturday's play will be limited to the Final Four contests on the card.  Featured among that quartet is the $125k Valdale, a Listed Stake for three year old fillies.  I'll be taking a look at the race below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - (F) The Valdale $125k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Strokes (Ire) (Morning Line 7-2)

B's

# 11 T Max (ML 9-2)+

C's

# 3 Liliesformillie (ML 5-1)

# 4 Jill Jitterbug (ML 15-1)
# 5 B G Warrior (ML 20-1)

# 8 Always at Ease (ML 15-1)

# 9 Murky (ML 5-2)+

Scratch # 1 Sally's Sassy (ML 10-1) and # 2 Baytown Lovely (ML 30-1)

As I was working through this sequence, I had to frequently remind myself that I was dropping from The Late Pick Five into The Late Pick Four.  Generally speaking, regarding multi-race wagers, the more races (legs) in the sequence, the wider I can spread while still making plays that have value.  At the extremes, this means that I can use many more runners when playing a Pick Six than I ever would in a Daily Double wager.  The reasoning is that the anticipated payout increases as the number of races in the sequence increases.

Going from the general to the specific, among the field in Saturday's Valdale Stakes is Murky, the Wesley Ward trainee and Morning Line Favorite.  In my opinion, if I was making Murky my top pick, then she really should be a main ticket single.  Since Murky isn't my top pick in this leg, then I see little to be gained by including Murky on my main ticket.  The reasoning being that, because she will be on the overwhelming majority of the Late Pick Four tickets played, using Murky as either a "B" or "B+" Selection adds more to the cost of my main ticket than she adds to the probability that I will cash at a profit.

Now, I feel that it's important for me to mention here that if I was confident of getting a price horse home in one of the other three legs, then I would definitely want to have Murky (as well as every other legitimate contender in this leg) on my main ticket.  In that case the price horse in the other leg is providing enough value to guarantee a price that would offset the cost of putting all legitimate contenders on the main ticket.  In addition, to point out the obvious, it does my bankroll little good to catch a price in one leg of the sequence only to whiff on another leg because I didn't cover a short priced winner.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Retained (ML 8-5)

B's

# 7 Gamer (ML 8-1)

# 8 Kansas Comet (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Braille (ML 6-1)

# 2 The Thunderer (ML 5-1)

# 3 Summer Country (ML 20-1)
# 5 Brokenhearted (ML 8-1)

# 6 American Triumph (ML 8-1)+

# 9 Go Bali Go (ML 12-1)+

Retained has failed as the Post Time Favorite four times in his six race career; obviously not a good line for him to have on his resume.  Perhaps getting Lasix for the first time will make the difference for Retained today.

I have little doubt that Retained is going to be on the overwhelming number of Late Pick Four tickets punched today.  Normally that would mean that the ideal strategy for Retained is single or toss.  However, because I'm laying the anticipated Favorite in the opening leg, I can maintain value while still adding two "B" Selections in this leg.  The positive is that, should Retained once again fail to win a race where he was clearly the most talented runner in the field, I'll still have a shot at advancing with my main ticket.  The negative is that, should Retained finally break through and win as he should, then I will have wasted a significant amount of money adding the other two runners in this race,  Pros and cons, just as it is with most everything else in life.

RACE 7 - OC 50k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Wadsworth (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Miranda Rights (ML 4-1)+

# 6 First Strike (ML 8-1)

# 12 Scoobie Quando (ML 8-1)

C's

# 4 Clear the Air (ML 6-1)

# 5 Mendel's Secret (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Eye Witness (ML 7-2)

These are three year olds, which is why the claiming price is $50k, instead of the $25k price typically used at Turfway for first level Optional Claimers.  However, that point is moot, as none in this field are eligible to be claimed.

With the scratch of Eye Witness, Wadsworth inherits the Morning Line Favorite position.  However, as is typical with races at this class level for newly minted three year olds, it may prove easier to pick the winner than to handicap how the public will wager.  I think I've got this one right, at least as far as coverage, by going four deep; but a wider spread in this leg certainly is worthy of consideration.

RACE 8 - Clm $7.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 2 Seven and Seven (ML 10-1)

B’s

# 5 Maqamat (ML 4-1)

# 7 Father Patrick (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 3 Drop Anchor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Ral Copperheadroad (ML 5-1)

# 13 Vasilevskiy (Ire) (ML 15-1)

Scratch # 9 Over Calendared (ML 5-1) and # 12 Cheekers (ML 8-1)

Having an "A" Selection that's 10-1 on the Morning Line certainly looks impressive; but it's decidedly less impressive in light of the fact that the Morning Line Favorite (Maqamat) has a ML of 4-1.  For those who enjoy race shape projections, I'm expecting Seven and Seven to lead the field, possibly until well after the field has passed the Finish Line.  It looks on paper like Maqamat will get first run at Seven and Seven, perhaps earlier than usual if no one else challenges Seven and Seven in the opening phase of the contest.  Father Patrick will probably see most, if not all, of his opponents running in front of him through most of the race, as Father Patrick tends to do his best running late.

Alright; here's the Reader's Digest version of the above selections, condensed into a single chart:

PICK FOUR	"A" SELECTIONS	"B+" SELECTIONS	"B" SELECTIONS	"C+" SELECTIONS	"C" SELECTIONS
LEG 1	6,	11,		9,	3,4,5,8,
LEG 2	4,		7,8,	6,9,	1,2,3,5,
LEG 3	8,	2,	6,12,		4,5,
LEG 4	2,	7,	5,		3,6,13,

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I created based upon the above selections:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 2 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,11 with 4 with 2,8 with 2,7 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 4,7,8 with 2,6,8,12 with 2,5,7 $36.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 2,8 with 2,7 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 6,9 with 2,8 with 2,7 $8.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,8 with 4 with 8 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1,2,3,5 with 8 with 2 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 4,5 with 2 $1.00

$0.50 P4: 6 with 4 with 8 with 3,6,13 $1.50

Total: $61.50

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five -Results

Race 4 - # 10 English Challenge (Final Odds 3.36) - "C+" Selection

Race 5 - # 8 Aunt Becca (2.38*) - "C+" Selection

Race 6 - # 6 Texas Magic (7.61) - "C" Selection

Race 7 - # 2 Protomagic (17.65) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 6 Dialed Inna (3.20*) - "B" Selection

Some days you're the windshield, and some days you're the bug.  On the positive side, if there's only going to be one winner on my main ticket, it might as well be in the last leg, so that I can claim momentum going into the next sequence.  Otherwise;

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Five sequence of  10 / 8 / 6 / 2 / 6  were rewarded with a payout of $10,280.49 for their fifty cent wager.  Those who had four out of the five correct collect $93.88.  Needless to say, tonight I find myself belonging to neither group.  

May God bless all who profited as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

2/1/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Five - Preview

“I’m not stubborn.  My way is just better.” - Maya Banks

We can kiss the first month of 2023 goodbye, as January has gone by the boards and February breaks from the gate.  For now I've decided to stick with the challenge of catching 100% of the sequence of five; a decision made easier by knowing that a consolation payout will be given for lassoing only 80% of the string.  So with that let's get to it; as I take another run at The Late Pick Five at Turfway Park.

RACE 4 - Alw 5000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Texas Hedge ((Morning Line 20-1)

B’s

# 2 Not So Easy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sun Daddy (ML 9-2)

# 11 Can't Hide From Me (ML 7-2)

C's

# 4 Wind Twist (ML 15-1)

# 5 Duel Fuel (ML 20-1)

# 7 He Takes Charge (ML 15-1)+

# 10 English Challenge (ML 4-1)+

# 12 C F W Wicked Red (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 1 Hashtag Winner (ML 6-1); # 6 T J Munnings (ML 30-1); # 9 Golden Text (ML 6-1); and # 13 Delft (ML 30-1)

This being Kentucky rather than California, this event is a standard Starter Allowance with no lifetime Win restrictions for entry.  The only requirement for this contest is that the runner must be four years old or upward, and must have started for a claiming price of $5k or less sometime over the past twenty-four months.

This was a tough one for me to sort out.  With either a larger bankroll, or a certifiable single in one of the other legs, either or both of He Takes Charge and English Challenge would be on my main ticket.  One key factor that made this leg more difficult for me was the scratch of Hashtag Winner, as I was looking forward to putting her at the top of my Selections for this leg, and then very much enjoying how many would discount her chances because she would be a female taking on the males.

Texas Hedge is at the top of my Selections as much for his price as for his ability.  I might as well shoot for high odds if I truly think this contest is ultra-competitive.  Still, I wouldn't get too excited about that Morning Line, as it was made prior to today's scratches.  But it certainly would be a nice one to pocket.

RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Miss J D (ML 4-1)

B's

# 3 Mischievous Doll (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Rolo Bolo (ML 10-1)

# 5 Delovely (ML 12-1)

# 8 Aunt Becca (ML 8-1)+
# 10 Jenny Lind (ML 3-1)+
# 13 She's On the Rocks (ML 12-1)+

Scratch # 12 Liam's Gift (ML 20-1) and # 14 Shemademeblush (ML 4-1)

Approximately half of the runners in this field are first time starters.  Well, nobody said this would be easy.  Besides, if I was playing The Late Pick Four I would still have to sort out this lot.

The borderline horse in this field for me was Jenny Lind.  On form, Jenny Lind certainly belongs on the main ticket.  But Jenny Lind is trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, North America's all-time leader in training wins, with seemingly none of those wins achieved at Turfway Park; at least, not in recent history.  I have no idea why Asmussen's runners become camera shy when they compete at Turfway Park.  But it is what it is, and until it turns around I have no intentions, except under the most extreme of circumstances, of including an Asmussen runner on my main ticket.

RACE 6 - (F) OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Jubilee Bridge (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 5 Classic Coyne (ML 4-1)+

C's

# 3 Oma the Great (ML 6-1)

# 6 Texas Magic (ML 8-1)

# 7 Treaty of Paris (ML 10-1)

# 8 La Tourista (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 1 Yarborough (ML 8-1) and # 2 Edgee Angel (ML 9-2)

For those who desperately need to know, with the scratch of Edgee Angel, none of the runners in this field are in for a tag.

La Tourista is moving up the class ladder after winning her previous two races at very nice prices.  If La Trourista continues to improve, then I may end up looking very foolish for not including her on my main ticket.  But in my opinion this is quite simply too big a class jump for La Tourista; and as a five year old mare with three dozen lifetime starts, I don't anticipate La Tourista at this stage of her career making the huge leap forward that she would need to in order to be a contender in this field.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $15k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 9 Mrs. K (ML 12-1)

B’s

# 11 Smooth Like Ice (ML 6-1)+

C's

# 1 Only Time (ML 6-1)+

# 2 Protomagic (ML 15-1)

# 3 Puglia (ML 8-1)

# 5 Miss Matchmaker (ML 5-2)+

# 6 Tap the Line (ML 15-1)

# 7 Shadow Belle (ML 20-1)

# 8 Sis Boom Bob (ML 20-1)+

# 10 Gran Chemin (ML 12-1)
# 12 Jumakan Bourbon (ML 20-1)+

# 14 Chi Town Heat (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 4 You're Avoiding Me (ML 4-1) and # 13 Ju Suis Rapide (ML 8-1)

Mrs. K looks to be in good position to rebound (and likely improve upon) back to her effort two starts back, when she graduated by daylight over this track.  Smooth Like Ice graduated last time out; and while normally I'm hesitant to back such in their first try versus winners, Smooth Like Ice won last time by as many as she wanted at a very nice price.  Factor in that this field doesn't appear to have a true standout, and I think it's justified to list Smooth Like Ice near the top among my Selections.

With a larger bankroll, I might be tempted to elevate Miss Matchmaker onto the main ticket.  But Miss Matchmaker is almost certain to be over bet, despite having a similar status to Smooth Like Ice, excepting that Miss Matchmaker has already had her first race versus winners, where she finished off the board.

RACE 8 - (F) Clm $7.5k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 4 Morning Angel (ML 8-1)

B’s

# 2 Forgot Password (ML 4-1)

# 6 Dialed Inna (ML 9-2)

# 10 Total Discretion (ML 9-2)

C's

# 1 Easy Is Good (ML 20-1)
# 3 Wilmore (ML 20-1)

# 5 Jersey Gold (ML 50-1)

# 7 Youdevilyoucecilia (ML 20-1)

# 8 Beach Kitten (ML 15-1)
# 9 Gorilla Girl (ML 8-1)

# 11 Tiz Abby (ML 30-1)

# 13 Knelcock (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 12 Decree of Love (ML 5-2) and # 14 Grand Venus (ML 30-1)

I was disappointed with the scratch of Decree of Love, as I was hoping to fade her against this field; but, hey, maybe I would have been wrong.

The runner that I had the most difficulty slotting in this bunch was Total Discretion.  Seriously, I kept moving Total Discretion up and down in my rankings, until I decided that I'd rather needlessly increase the cost of my play by putting Total Discretion on my main ticket than suffer with all the second guessing that I would subject myself to were Total Discretion get the W.  Sometimes you have to go with the decision that you can live with over the decision that is objectively best.

Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:

And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P5: 3 with 7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 2,3,8,11 with 3,7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 2,4,6,10 $64.00

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P5: 7,10 with 7 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $4.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 8,10,13 with 4,5 with 9,11 with 4 $6.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4,5 with 1,5,8,12 with 4 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 4,5,12 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.50

$0.50 P5: 3 with 1,5 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 3,6,7,8 with 9 with 4 $2.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 2,3,6,7,10,14 with 4 $3.00

$0.50 P5: 3 with 7 with 4 with 9 with 1,3,5,7,8,9,11,13 $4.00

Total: $94.50

Post Time for Race 4 is 7:25 EST / 4:25 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo