Race 6 - # 9 Divisor (Final Odds 3.00*) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Matriarch - # 8 Off Limits (Ire) - (4.60) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Allianna (1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 2 Analyze It (0.50*) - "A" Selection
As is often the case, a race that appears to be indecipherable is correctly solved by the public; as the opening leg, which looked oh so complex on paper, is won by the Post Time Favorite, Divisor. Fortunately I didn't panic and punch the "ALL" button for that contest; but I did err in not having the winner as an "A" Selection, and it cost me.
For the record, here is the $0.50 Will Pay for the other runner to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 5 Armour Plate (26.70) - $1,164.45 Finish: 10th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 8 / 6 / 2 which paid $47.95 for a fifty cent wager. Since my initial investment was $60.50, I cash at a loss of twelve dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 26, 2017
11/26/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
And so we reach the end of the holiday weekend; which, as it turns out, is also the final day of Del Mar's Fall meeting. As was the case Saturday, there are three Graded Stakes on the Del Mar card Sunday; two of which are among the final four contests. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Secret Touch (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Quality Line (ML 8-1)
# 6 Desert General (ML 9-2)
# 9 Divisor (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 5 Upperclassman (ML 5-1)
# 8 Street to Indy (ML 6-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; no exemptions.
Secret Touch has taken the Show at this class level in each of his last two starts. Quality Line could move up with the return to one turn racing over this main track. Desert General missed victory by a nose at this class level two starts back.
Divisor broke his maiden last time out; Trainer Phil D'Amato tends to do well when placing his last out graduates. Also note that Divisor is the only runner in this field that did not compete at this class level in his last race.
Rolls Royce Deal took the Place at this class level last time out. Street to Indy and Upperclassman filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire within a half length of each other.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Cambodia (ML 3-1)
# 8 Off Limits (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 9 Rubilinda (ML 10-1)
# 12 Kitten's Roar (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Lull (ML 5-1)
# 3 Pretty Girl (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Mrs McDougal (ML 15-1)
Cambodia took the Show in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf over this course last time out. Off Limits (Ire) has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire in each of her last eight races. Rubilinda, like Off Limits, is trained by Chad Brown; and while Rubilinda enters this event having won a pair of Listed Stakes, she may not yet be on the same class level as her stablemate.
Kitten's Roar was the easy winner of the Grade 2 Goldikova over this turf course last time out. Lull and Hawksmoor (Ire) are two that should be forwardly placed early, while Pretty Girl (Arg) is one that could be running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Allianna (ML 5-2)
B's
# 8 Uno Trouble Maker (ML 12-1)
# 11 Tell Your Mama (ML 7-2)
C's
Scratch # 13 Travieza (ML 6-1) and # 14 Mischievous Song (ML 4-1), as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
Allianna, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level in her debut last time out. Uno Trouble Maker is sired by Successful Appeal, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking. Also note that Uno Trouble Maker's dam (Hope and Vow) also produced Ethan's Baby, who was a debut winner as well as a Listed Stakes winner as a two year old.
Tell Your Mama returns to a more realistic class level after barely picking up her feet in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Zusha and Toinette have the pedigree to suggest that they will do well at first asking, while Pacific Kitty looks to have been handling the track well in her morning workouts.
RACE 9 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Analyze It (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Amour Plate (ML 8-1)
C's
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 5-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Inscom (ML 7-2)
Analyze it did nothing wrong last time out in his Belmont debut for Trainer Chad Brown. A repeat of that performance should get Analyze It into the Winner's Circle today.
Amour Plate took the Show in the Zuma Beach last time out, and seems well suited to today's distance. Pubilius Syrus in each of his three turf starts. Choo Choo ran well last time out after being steadied at the start. Inscom was within a nose of Pubilius Syrus at the wire two starts back, and won for fun last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6,9 with 7,8,9,12 with 6,8,11 with 2,5 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,8 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,10 with 6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 3,5,7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 6,8,9 $3.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Secret Touch (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Quality Line (ML 8-1)
# 6 Desert General (ML 9-2)
# 9 Divisor (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 5 Upperclassman (ML 5-1)
# 8 Street to Indy (ML 6-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; no exemptions.
Secret Touch has taken the Show at this class level in each of his last two starts. Quality Line could move up with the return to one turn racing over this main track. Desert General missed victory by a nose at this class level two starts back.
Divisor broke his maiden last time out; Trainer Phil D'Amato tends to do well when placing his last out graduates. Also note that Divisor is the only runner in this field that did not compete at this class level in his last race.
Rolls Royce Deal took the Place at this class level last time out. Street to Indy and Upperclassman filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire within a half length of each other.
RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Cambodia (ML 3-1)
# 8 Off Limits (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 9 Rubilinda (ML 10-1)
# 12 Kitten's Roar (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Lull (ML 5-1)
# 3 Pretty Girl (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Mrs McDougal (ML 15-1)
Cambodia took the Show in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf over this course last time out. Off Limits (Ire) has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire in each of her last eight races. Rubilinda, like Off Limits, is trained by Chad Brown; and while Rubilinda enters this event having won a pair of Listed Stakes, she may not yet be on the same class level as her stablemate.
Kitten's Roar was the easy winner of the Grade 2 Goldikova over this turf course last time out. Lull and Hawksmoor (Ire) are two that should be forwardly placed early, while Pretty Girl (Arg) is one that could be running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Allianna (ML 5-2)
B's
# 8 Uno Trouble Maker (ML 12-1)
# 11 Tell Your Mama (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Zusha (ML 12-1)
# 5 Toinette (ML 12-1)
# 7 Pacific Kitty (ML 20-1)Scratch # 13 Travieza (ML 6-1) and # 14 Mischievous Song (ML 4-1), as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible list.
Allianna, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level in her debut last time out. Uno Trouble Maker is sired by Successful Appeal, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking. Also note that Uno Trouble Maker's dam (Hope and Vow) also produced Ethan's Baby, who was a debut winner as well as a Listed Stakes winner as a two year old.
Tell Your Mama returns to a more realistic class level after barely picking up her feet in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Zusha and Toinette have the pedigree to suggest that they will do well at first asking, while Pacific Kitty looks to have been handling the track well in her morning workouts.
RACE 9 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Analyze It (ML 5-2)
B's
# 5 Amour Plate (ML 8-1)
C's
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 5-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Inscom (ML 7-2)
Analyze it did nothing wrong last time out in his Belmont debut for Trainer Chad Brown. A repeat of that performance should get Analyze It into the Winner's Circle today.
Amour Plate took the Show in the Zuma Beach last time out, and seems well suited to today's distance. Pubilius Syrus in each of his three turf starts. Choo Choo ran well last time out after being steadied at the start. Inscom was within a nose of Pubilius Syrus at the wire two starts back, and won for fun last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,6,9 with 7,8,9,12 with 6,8,11 with 2,5 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,8 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,10 with 6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 3,5,7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 6,8,9 $3.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 25, 2017
11/25/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Getoffmyback (Final Odds 2.90) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 7 Mo Town (2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Kris' Rocket Kat (4.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Jimmy Durante - # 2 Daddy Is a Legend (2.70*) - No Selection
For the first three legs of the sequence, I was right and the public was wrong, as I got three winners home, including two "A" Selections, that weren't the Post Time Favorites. However, in the final leg it was the public that had it right while I was wrong; as Daddy Is a Legend, bet down from a Morning Line of 9-2 to Post Time Favoritism, made a late run through the stretch after a slow beginning to take the nightcap.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 5 Raucous (6.70) - $440.10 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Multiplayer (46.50) - $4,072.20 Finish: 7th
# 11 Data Dependent (4.30) - $440.80 Finish: 2nd
# 13 Fatale Bere (Fr) (3.80) - $278.35 Finish: 8th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 7 / 11 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $294.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Hollywood Derby - # 7 Mo Town (2.10) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 11 Kris' Rocket Kat (4.00) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Jimmy Durante - # 2 Daddy Is a Legend (2.70*) - No Selection
For the first three legs of the sequence, I was right and the public was wrong, as I got three winners home, including two "A" Selections, that weren't the Post Time Favorites. However, in the final leg it was the public that had it right while I was wrong; as Daddy Is a Legend, bet down from a Morning Line of 9-2 to Post Time Favoritism, made a late run through the stretch after a slow beginning to take the nightcap.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the four runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 5 Raucous (6.70) - $440.10 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Multiplayer (46.50) - $4,072.20 Finish: 7th
# 11 Data Dependent (4.30) - $440.80 Finish: 2nd
# 13 Fatale Bere (Fr) (3.80) - $278.35 Finish: 8th
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 8 / 7 / 11 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $294.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/25/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Keeping my action downstate as the holiday weekend continues, where Del Mar will be playing host to a trio of Graded Stakes this Saturday. I'll be taking a look at two of those contests below, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Getoffmyback (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 The Street Fighter (ML 5-2)
# 5 Swiss Minister (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 One I'm Running To (ML 12-1)
# 6 Guy Code (ML 15-1)
Getoffmyback and The Street Fighter filled out the Exacta at Santa Anita last month at this approximate class level. Swiss Minister may benefit from the reduction in real estate.
One I'm Running To appears to be in top form and has had prior success over this main track; but One I'm Running To may be outclassed here. Guy Code could be the speed of the speed here.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Sharp Samurai (ML 5-2)
# 7 Mo Town (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Souper Tapit (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 5-1)
# 9 Big Score (ML 4-1)
Sharp Samurai has won five out of six since forsaking the main track for some California grass. Mo Town did absolutely nothing wrong in winning his turf debut last time out; a repeat of that effort should get Mo Town into the Winner's Circle today. Souper Tapit is still seeking his first turf victory; but Souper Tapit was much improved last time out, and he may benefit from the added distance.
Big Score, Bowies Hero, and Channel Maker filled out the bottom three slots in the Superfecta behind Sharp Samurai in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last time out; perhaps the change in locale will give one of them the edge over the Morning Line Favorite today.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Concur (ML 9-2)
B's
# 6 Samdar (ML 7-2)
# 11 Kris' Rocket Kat (ML 6-1)
# 12 Bourbon Dude (ML 20-1)
C's
# 4 Real Quick (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mo Over (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 Nero (ML 3-1); but don't bring in # 13 Optic (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list, as he is scratched as well.
These are juveniles, with eight first time starters. Concur and Kris' Rocket Kat are two of the experienced runners in this field, with Concur missing graduation by just a nose in his initial try last time out. Among the debut runners today, Samdar and Bourbon Dude seem to have the best combination of pedigree and connections to be expected to win first time out; while Real Quick and Mo Over also merit consideration, in my opinion.
RACE 9 - (F) The Jimmy Durantee (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 13 Fatale Bere (Fr) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 5 Raucous (ML 5-1)
# 6 Multiplayer (ML 20-1)
# 11 Data Dependent (ML 6-1)
C's
# 7 Ever So True (ML 12-1)
# 9 Sappho (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Just a Smidge (ML 15-1)
# 12 Thewayiam (Fr) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 One Fast Broad (ML 12-1)
Fatale Bere (Fr) looks best here, returning as she is to a more suitable class level. I was very much tempted to make Fatale Bere a single here; but, these being juvenile fillies, it seemed prudent to give myself a bit more coverage.
Raucous and Multiplayer ship in after picking up Listed Stakes victories at other venues. Data Dependent looks to be the one that will be running best late.
Ever So True is still a maiden; but she's trained by Peter Miller, who seems to have won everything else this meet. Sappho (Ire) has put together three straight solid efforts. Just a Smidge's breeding suggests that she'll do well on the turf. Thewayiam (Fr) seems to fit well here, though stamina might be an issue.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 10 with 13 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,8 with 4,6,7 with 6,10,11,12 with 5,6,11,13 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 4,7 with 10 with 13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,9 with 10 with 13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 4,7 with 13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 10 with 7,9,10,12 $4.00
Total: $83.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Getoffmyback (Morning Line 3-1)
B’s
# 3 The Street Fighter (ML 5-2)
# 5 Swiss Minister (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 One I'm Running To (ML 12-1)
# 6 Guy Code (ML 15-1)
Getoffmyback and The Street Fighter filled out the Exacta at Santa Anita last month at this approximate class level. Swiss Minister may benefit from the reduction in real estate.
One I'm Running To appears to be in top form and has had prior success over this main track; but One I'm Running To may be outclassed here. Guy Code could be the speed of the speed here.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Sharp Samurai (ML 5-2)
# 7 Mo Town (ML 3-1)
B's
# 6 Souper Tapit (ML 12-1)
C's
# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)
# 3 Channel Maker (ML 5-1)
# 9 Big Score (ML 4-1)
Sharp Samurai has won five out of six since forsaking the main track for some California grass. Mo Town did absolutely nothing wrong in winning his turf debut last time out; a repeat of that effort should get Mo Town into the Winner's Circle today. Souper Tapit is still seeking his first turf victory; but Souper Tapit was much improved last time out, and he may benefit from the added distance.
Big Score, Bowies Hero, and Channel Maker filled out the bottom three slots in the Superfecta behind Sharp Samurai in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last time out; perhaps the change in locale will give one of them the edge over the Morning Line Favorite today.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Concur (ML 9-2)
B's
# 6 Samdar (ML 7-2)
# 11 Kris' Rocket Kat (ML 6-1)
# 12 Bourbon Dude (ML 20-1)
C's
# 4 Real Quick (ML 20-1)
# 7 Mo Over (ML 20-1)
Scratch # 3 Nero (ML 3-1); but don't bring in # 13 Optic (ML 8-1) off the Also Eligible list, as he is scratched as well.
These are juveniles, with eight first time starters. Concur and Kris' Rocket Kat are two of the experienced runners in this field, with Concur missing graduation by just a nose in his initial try last time out. Among the debut runners today, Samdar and Bourbon Dude seem to have the best combination of pedigree and connections to be expected to win first time out; while Real Quick and Mo Over also merit consideration, in my opinion.
RACE 9 - (F) The Jimmy Durantee (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 13 Fatale Bere (Fr) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 5 Raucous (ML 5-1)
# 6 Multiplayer (ML 20-1)
# 11 Data Dependent (ML 6-1)
C's
# 7 Ever So True (ML 12-1)
# 9 Sappho (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Just a Smidge (ML 15-1)
# 12 Thewayiam (Fr) (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 One Fast Broad (ML 12-1)
Fatale Bere (Fr) looks best here, returning as she is to a more suitable class level. I was very much tempted to make Fatale Bere a single here; but, these being juvenile fillies, it seemed prudent to give myself a bit more coverage.
Raucous and Multiplayer ship in after picking up Listed Stakes victories at other venues. Data Dependent looks to be the one that will be running best late.
Ever So True is still a maiden; but she's trained by Peter Miller, who seems to have won everything else this meet. Sappho (Ire) has put together three straight solid efforts. Just a Smidge's breeding suggests that she'll do well on the turf. Thewayiam (Fr) seems to fit well here, though stamina might be an issue.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 10 with 13 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,8 with 4,6,7 with 6,10,11,12 with 5,6,11,13 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 4,7 with 10 with 13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,9 with 10 with 13 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 4,7 with 13 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,7 with 10 with 7,9,10,12 $4.00
Total: $83.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 23, 2017
11/23/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 4 Shivermetimbers (Final Odds 3.40) - "B" Selection
Race 6 - The Red Carpet - # 13 How Unusual (9.90) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Psycho Dar (7.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 12 Lori's Attitude (7.10) - "B" Selection
While I had three of the four winners on the big ticket, I really didn't come all that close to cashing, as none of the three runners that I had covered in the third leg managed to finish in the Trifecta. Having the horse for the course was the key to solving that particular puzzle, as Psycho Dar is now two-for-two over the Del Mar surface and oh-for-two elsewhere.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 13 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $2,060.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - The Red Carpet - # 13 How Unusual (9.90) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Psycho Dar (7.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - # 12 Lori's Attitude (7.10) - "B" Selection
While I had three of the four winners on the big ticket, I really didn't come all that close to cashing, as none of the three runners that I had covered in the third leg managed to finish in the Trifecta. Having the horse for the course was the key to solving that particular puzzle, as Psycho Dar is now two-for-two over the Del Mar surface and oh-for-two elsewhere.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 13 / 1 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $2,060.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/23/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
"When I started counting my blessings, my whole life turned around.” - Willie Nelson
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
Shaking it up a bit this weekend by moving my action downstate. Also a heads up that I won't be posting anything for Friday; but (Good Lord willing) I'll be back with selections for Saturday and Sunday at Del Mar. Getting back to Thanksgiving, the Grade 3 Red Carpet is the featured race, with fillies and mares running on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 He's Stylish (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Longden (ML 5-1)
# 4 Shivermetimbers (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 End of Spirits (ML 8-1)
# 6 Peace (ML 3-1)
# 9 Point Guard (ML 12-1)
He's Stylish and Shivermetimbers filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over at Santa Anita last time out. Longden is a second time starter for trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.
End of Spirits was quick early in his debut last time out. Peace closed well in his debut last time out. Point Guard may improve with the blinkers off.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 13 How Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 8 Do the Dance (ML 20-1)
# 10 Earring (ML 6-1)
# 11 Birdie Gold (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Galileo's Song (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 14 Lottie (ML 9-2)
The removal of the two New York based runners from the field certainly changes the complexion of this graded stakes. Responsibleforlove (Ire), who missed victory in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive over at Santa Anita last time out by less than a length, seems well meant here. Note that Responsibleforlove already owns a victory at today's distance over this turf course.
How Unusual should do well with the rise in class, provided that she can avoid traffic problems late. Evo Campo (Ire) should improve with the return to turf. Do the Dance appears to be rounding into top form, and should be well placed early.
Earring could move up with the increase in real estate. Birdie Gold will have a better chance to show what she can do with the class relief.
RACE 7 - OC 50k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Warrior's Lullaby (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Neighborhood Bully (ML 7-2)
# 8 Royal Bar (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Psycho Dar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Midnight Run (ML 12-1)
Like Race 5, the MSW contest above, this race is for two year olds. I used the official Optional Claimer designation above; but none of these runners are in for a tag; so, really, for all intents and purposes, this is a Starter Allowance for juveniles that have started for a claiming price of $50k or less and have never won two races (Alw 50000s N2L).
Warrior's Lullaby has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in three career starts. Warrior's Lullaby's good tactical speed should serve him well here.
Neighborhood Bully could move up with the return to Del Mar. Royal Bar goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such.
Psycho Dar's best race so far was his debut, which came over this main track. Royal Trump may be the quickest early.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Chalky (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Night Bloom (ML 15-1)
# 6 Halo Ahead (ML 9-2)
# 9 Achira (ML 7-2)
# 12 Lori's Attitude (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Prieta (ML 8-1)
# 7 Red Shelby (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Lovely Raquel (ML 20-1) and # 14 Morning Dance (ML 5-1)
Chalky (Ire) makes her North American debut after finishing in the money in all three of her starts in Great Britain. Night Bloom could improve with a better trip.
Halo Ahead, who failed as the Post Time Favorite in four of her last five starts, certainly has the talent to win; perhaps today she'll also have the desire. Achira closed well in her debut last time out.
Lori's Attitude has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts, all charging down the Santa Anita hill. Perhaps Lori's Attitude will get an adjustment on the flats.
Prieta's breeding suggests that she'll do well at the distance. Red Shelby may improve with the change in scenery.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 7,13 with 3,8,9 with 3,4,6,9,12 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,9 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,8,10,11 with 9 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 5,7 $1.00
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
Shaking it up a bit this weekend by moving my action downstate. Also a heads up that I won't be posting anything for Friday; but (Good Lord willing) I'll be back with selections for Saturday and Sunday at Del Mar. Getting back to Thanksgiving, the Grade 3 Red Carpet is the featured race, with fillies and mares running on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 He's Stylish (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Longden (ML 5-1)
# 4 Shivermetimbers (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 End of Spirits (ML 8-1)
# 6 Peace (ML 3-1)
# 9 Point Guard (ML 12-1)
He's Stylish and Shivermetimbers filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over at Santa Anita last time out. Longden is a second time starter for trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.
End of Spirits was quick early in his debut last time out. Peace closed well in his debut last time out. Point Guard may improve with the blinkers off.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 13 How Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 8 Do the Dance (ML 20-1)
# 10 Earring (ML 6-1)
# 11 Birdie Gold (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Galileo's Song (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 14 Lottie (ML 9-2)
The removal of the two New York based runners from the field certainly changes the complexion of this graded stakes. Responsibleforlove (Ire), who missed victory in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive over at Santa Anita last time out by less than a length, seems well meant here. Note that Responsibleforlove already owns a victory at today's distance over this turf course.
How Unusual should do well with the rise in class, provided that she can avoid traffic problems late. Evo Campo (Ire) should improve with the return to turf. Do the Dance appears to be rounding into top form, and should be well placed early.
Earring could move up with the increase in real estate. Birdie Gold will have a better chance to show what she can do with the class relief.
RACE 7 - OC 50k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Warrior's Lullaby (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Neighborhood Bully (ML 7-2)
# 8 Royal Bar (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Psycho Dar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Midnight Run (ML 12-1)
Like Race 5, the MSW contest above, this race is for two year olds. I used the official Optional Claimer designation above; but none of these runners are in for a tag; so, really, for all intents and purposes, this is a Starter Allowance for juveniles that have started for a claiming price of $50k or less and have never won two races (Alw 50000s N2L).
Warrior's Lullaby has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in three career starts. Warrior's Lullaby's good tactical speed should serve him well here.
Neighborhood Bully could move up with the return to Del Mar. Royal Bar goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such.
Psycho Dar's best race so far was his debut, which came over this main track. Royal Trump may be the quickest early.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Chalky (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Night Bloom (ML 15-1)
# 6 Halo Ahead (ML 9-2)
# 9 Achira (ML 7-2)
# 12 Lori's Attitude (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Prieta (ML 8-1)
# 7 Red Shelby (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Lovely Raquel (ML 20-1) and # 14 Morning Dance (ML 5-1)
Chalky (Ire) makes her North American debut after finishing in the money in all three of her starts in Great Britain. Night Bloom could improve with a better trip.
Halo Ahead, who failed as the Post Time Favorite in four of her last five starts, certainly has the talent to win; perhaps today she'll also have the desire. Achira closed well in her debut last time out.
Lori's Attitude has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts, all charging down the Santa Anita hill. Perhaps Lori's Attitude will get an adjustment on the flats.
Prieta's breeding suggests that she'll do well at the distance. Red Shelby may improve with the change in scenery.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 7,13 with 3,8,9 with 3,4,6,9,12 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,9 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,8,10,11 with 9 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 5,7 $1.00
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 19, 2017
11/19/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Askin' for Trouble (Final Odds 8.10) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Holdthismiss (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Awhitesportscoat (8.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 She Sang (3.50) - "C" Selection
Not much good to say regarding Sunday's handicapping, as only one big ticket selection gets their picture taken. However, I will say in my defense that the real problem with Sunday's results was that the Finish Line was in the wrong position on the track. Examining the results charts, had the leader at the stretch call for each contest been able to last 'til the wire, Sunday's results would have been:
Race 6 - # 4 Bel's Blessing (Final Odds 8.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Inexcess Again (4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Brownie Finale (5.70) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Candy Pink (6.10) - "A" Selection
But, of course, that's not how this game is played.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 2 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $522.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Holdthismiss (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Awhitesportscoat (8.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 5 She Sang (3.50) - "C" Selection
Not much good to say regarding Sunday's handicapping, as only one big ticket selection gets their picture taken. However, I will say in my defense that the real problem with Sunday's results was that the Finish Line was in the wrong position on the track. Examining the results charts, had the leader at the stretch call for each contest been able to last 'til the wire, Sunday's results would have been:
Race 6 - # 4 Bel's Blessing (Final Odds 8.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Inexcess Again (4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Brownie Finale (5.70) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Candy Pink (6.10) - "A" Selection
But, of course, that's not how this game is played.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 2 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $522.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/19/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
In news that you most likely already know, Matt Dinerman, who has spent the previous three years as track announcer at Emerald Downs, will be replacing Frank Mirahmadi as the track announcer at Golden Gate at the end of the current meet. Mirahmadi will be shifting to the East Coast, where he will be serving as the back-up track announcer for Aqueduct during the winter meet, a role previously filled by Travis Stone. I mention all that here because I have absolutely nothing else to say by way of introduction; so let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)
A’s
# 1 Cook Up a Storm (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Charming Ruler (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bel's Blessing (ML 6-1)
# 6 English Investor (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Kona Breeze (ML 9-2)
# 5 One True King (ML 4-1)
# 7 Askin' for Trouble (ML 8-1)
These are juveniles, and Cook Up a Storm and Charming Ruler are the only two runners in this field to have competed around two turns, and each managed to finish in the Trifecta while doing so.
Bel's Blessing ran well in his debut last time out, once he realized there was a race going on and that he was in it. English Investor goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as there's no telling which two year old might suddenly grow up today.
RACE 7 - Clm $16k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Holdthismiss (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 1 Next Speaker (ML 5-2)
# 5 Inexcess Again (ML 4-1)
C's
# 6 Gloria's Angelo (ML 12-1)
Holdthismiss and Next Speaker filled out the Exacta for a lesser claiming price last time out. Inexcess Again could be the speed of the speed. Gloria's Angelo could wake up with the class drop and surface switch.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)
A's
# 3 Oil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Sunset Dragunn (ML 8-1)
# 5 Brownie Finale (ML 7-2)
# 9 Stellar Sea (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Frenchy Bobcat (ML 20-1)
# 7 The Common Man (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elegant Tanner (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 1 Ted Oliver (ML 8-1)
Oil's stock improves with this race being moved off the turf, as Oil has finished in the Trifecta each of the half dozen times in his career that he has competed over this main track. Stellar Sea and Sunset Dragunn filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out.
Brownie Finale may move up with the reduction in real estate. Frenchy Bobcat has shown in the past that he can win off just works. The Common Man has run well in the past over this main track. Elegant Tanner fits well with the contenders on class, but may not be well suited to today's distance.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Our Favorite City (ML 5-2)
# 7 Candy Pink (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Hub Cap (ML 20-1)
C's
# 3 Red City Zip (ML 3-1)
# 4 Midnight Seeker (ML 6-1)
# 5 She Sang (ML 4-1)
# 8 Passion for Papa (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Sticker Shock (ML 20-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies and mares four years old and upward which have never won two races OR fillies which are three years old. So if your distaff runner is four years old or older, then she must have fewer than two wins in her career. However, if your filly is three years old, then she can have as many wins as she pleases, and still be eligible to run here. Note that there are no qualifiers for the win totals (that is, no exceptions for maiden victories, or wins where the purse was less than a certain dollar amount).
Our Favorite City was a winner at this class level last time out. Candy Pink looks like the speed of the speed here, while Hub Cap could be the one running best late. The "C" Selection are everyone else, as this is another that seems to be lacking a true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 1,7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,5 with 3,4,5,9 with 1,2,7 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 3 with 3 with 1,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 3 with 1,7 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 6,7,10 with 1,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 3,4,5,8 $2.00
Total: $83.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)
A’s
# 1 Cook Up a Storm (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Charming Ruler (ML 6-1)
# 4 Bel's Blessing (ML 6-1)
# 6 English Investor (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Kona Breeze (ML 9-2)
# 5 One True King (ML 4-1)
# 7 Askin' for Trouble (ML 8-1)
These are juveniles, and Cook Up a Storm and Charming Ruler are the only two runners in this field to have competed around two turns, and each managed to finish in the Trifecta while doing so.
Bel's Blessing ran well in his debut last time out, once he realized there was a race going on and that he was in it. English Investor goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill Morey, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, as there's no telling which two year old might suddenly grow up today.
RACE 7 - Clm $16k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Holdthismiss (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 1 Next Speaker (ML 5-2)
# 5 Inexcess Again (ML 4-1)
C's
# 6 Gloria's Angelo (ML 12-1)
Holdthismiss and Next Speaker filled out the Exacta for a lesser claiming price last time out. Inexcess Again could be the speed of the speed. Gloria's Angelo could wake up with the class drop and surface switch.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)
A's
# 3 Oil (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Sunset Dragunn (ML 8-1)
# 5 Brownie Finale (ML 7-2)
# 9 Stellar Sea (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Frenchy Bobcat (ML 20-1)
# 7 The Common Man (ML 20-1)
# 10 Elegant Tanner (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 1 Ted Oliver (ML 8-1)
Oil's stock improves with this race being moved off the turf, as Oil has finished in the Trifecta each of the half dozen times in his career that he has competed over this main track. Stellar Sea and Sunset Dragunn filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out.
Brownie Finale may move up with the reduction in real estate. Frenchy Bobcat has shown in the past that he can win off just works. The Common Man has run well in the past over this main track. Elegant Tanner fits well with the contenders on class, but may not be well suited to today's distance.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Our Favorite City (ML 5-2)
# 7 Candy Pink (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Hub Cap (ML 20-1)
C's
# 3 Red City Zip (ML 3-1)
# 4 Midnight Seeker (ML 6-1)
# 5 She Sang (ML 4-1)
# 8 Passion for Papa (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 6 Sticker Shock (ML 20-1)
This contest is restricted to fillies and mares four years old and upward which have never won two races OR fillies which are three years old. So if your distaff runner is four years old or older, then she must have fewer than two wins in her career. However, if your filly is three years old, then she can have as many wins as she pleases, and still be eligible to run here. Note that there are no qualifiers for the win totals (that is, no exceptions for maiden victories, or wins where the purse was less than a certain dollar amount).
Our Favorite City was a winner at this class level last time out. Candy Pink looks like the speed of the speed here, while Hub Cap could be the one running best late. The "C" Selection are everyone else, as this is another that seems to be lacking a true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 1,7 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4,6 with 1,3,5 with 3,4,5,9 with 1,2,7 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7 with 3 with 3 with 1,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 6 with 3 with 1,7 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 6,7,10 with 1,7 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 3,4,5,8 $2.00
Total: $83.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 18, 2017
11/18/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Spot N the Line (Final Odds 4.70) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - The Oakland - # 4 Right Hand Man (8.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Spring Heat (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Sweet River Baines (0.70*) - "A" Selection
In the second leg of the sequence, "B" Selection # 8 Mach One Rules (5.90) was a nose too late in getting to the wire. Had Mach One Rules reached the line a nostril sooner, Saturday's play would have been a winner. But the real story of Saturday's result wasn't the slim margin of defeat in the second leg; but rather lay in the decision as to which contest would produce the chaos result.
In the preview I remarked how I considered the third leg of Saturday's sequence to be indecipherable; but in that contest I actually got my top pick, my only "A" Selection in that race, home. Meanwhile, the leg prior, the featured stakes on the card, was the contest which actually proved to be unpredictable, as none of the public's top three choices was able to make their way into the Superfecta; a Superfecta which paid $391.08 for a dime.
So while racing luck resulted in a horse's nose being the difference Saturday between collecting and contributing, the overriding reason for defeat rests with not knowing which race would prove to be formful, and which contest was going to bring the chaos. And for that reason, on a day in which I got my big ticket single home, as well as a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection, I find myself trashing my tickets instead of cashing them.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 4 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $470 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Oakland - # 4 Right Hand Man (8.70) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 5 Spring Heat (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Sweet River Baines (0.70*) - "A" Selection
In the second leg of the sequence, "B" Selection # 8 Mach One Rules (5.90) was a nose too late in getting to the wire. Had Mach One Rules reached the line a nostril sooner, Saturday's play would have been a winner. But the real story of Saturday's result wasn't the slim margin of defeat in the second leg; but rather lay in the decision as to which contest would produce the chaos result.
In the preview I remarked how I considered the third leg of Saturday's sequence to be indecipherable; but in that contest I actually got my top pick, my only "A" Selection in that race, home. Meanwhile, the leg prior, the featured stakes on the card, was the contest which actually proved to be unpredictable, as none of the public's top three choices was able to make their way into the Superfecta; a Superfecta which paid $391.08 for a dime.
So while racing luck resulted in a horse's nose being the difference Saturday between collecting and contributing, the overriding reason for defeat rests with not knowing which race would prove to be formful, and which contest was going to bring the chaos. And for that reason, on a day in which I got my big ticket single home, as well as a non-Post Time Favorite "A" Selection, I find myself trashing my tickets instead of cashing them.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 4 / 5 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $470 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/18/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
The $50k Oakland Stakes, a one turn sprint over the main track, is the featured race on Saturday's card at Golden Gate Fields. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Tiz Point (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Spot N the Line (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Royal Alexei (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2)
# 8 King's to You (ML 6-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since August 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of July (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $4k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 3 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1) and # 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2) are the only two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Tiz Point, who has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two contests, both against more expensive stock, looks to be a clear standout here. Indeed, Tiz Point should probably be a single here, based upon talent and class; but the concern is that Tiz Point hasn't visited the Winner's Circle since January 10, 2015, more than a dozen races ago. So for that reason, it seems prudent to spread a bit here.
Spot N the Line came through as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out. Royal Alexei could be speed on the rail. Tremors Code finished in the Trifecta against classier foes in each of his last two contests, both on real dirt. King's to You could be the one running best late.
RACE 7 - The Oakland $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Percy's Bluff (ML 4-1)
# 10 Westley (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 I Will Score (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mach One Rules (ML 8-1)
C's
RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Tiz Point (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Spot N the Line (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Royal Alexei (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2)
# 8 King's to You (ML 6-1)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since August 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of July (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $4k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 3 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1) and # 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2) are the only two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Tiz Point, who has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two contests, both against more expensive stock, looks to be a clear standout here. Indeed, Tiz Point should probably be a single here, based upon talent and class; but the concern is that Tiz Point hasn't visited the Winner's Circle since January 10, 2015, more than a dozen races ago. So for that reason, it seems prudent to spread a bit here.
Spot N the Line came through as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out. Royal Alexei could be speed on the rail. Tremors Code finished in the Trifecta against classier foes in each of his last two contests, both on real dirt. King's to You could be the one running best late.
RACE 7 - The Oakland $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Percy's Bluff (ML 4-1)
# 10 Westley (ML 7-2)
B's
# 7 I Will Score (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mach One Rules (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Quick and Silver (ML 12-1)
# 2 Star Student (ML 8-1)
# 5 Outside Nashville (ML 8-1)
Percy's Bluff is seven-for-nine in 2017, and seems capable of handling the rise in class. Westley has been working well over this main track over the past few weeks.
I Will Score won the Grade 3 Laz Barrera last time out; but last time out was over eighteen months ago. Mach One Rules had a fine year competing at Emerald Downs, and Mach One Rules has run well in the past over this main track.
Quick and Silver could be speed on the rail. Star Student won this event last year, with Outside Nashville crossing under the wire less than a length behind.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)
A's
# 5 Spring Heat (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Pequena Maty (ML 15-1)
# 2 Exciting Dixie (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hot in the City (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sea Mistress (ML 6-1)
# 6 Matter of Luck (ML 9-2)
# 7 Bellanza (ML 12-1)
# 8 Blue's Lucky Girl (ML 8-1)
# 9 Motutapu (ML 6-1)
# 10 Lady Chrome (ML 15-1)
# 11 Macalla (ML 5-2)
# 11 Macalla (ML 5-2)
C's
None
Note that the Also Eligible, # 11 Macalla, will run, despite (as I type this) there being no scratches from the main field.
Spring Heat has finished in the Exacta at this class level in each of his last two starts. The "B's" are everyone else. No reason to get cute here; in my opinion this contest is wide open, and moving it off the turf to the main track didn't make it any easier to handicap. So the "ALL" button it is.
RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Sweet River Baines (ML 1-1)
B’s
None
C's
# 4 Twice as Fast (ML 8-1)
# 7 River of Champagne (ML 20-1)
# 9 Kenny Benny (ML 4-1)
# 9 Kenny Benny (ML 4-1)
Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less. For the record, # 7 River of Champagne (ML 20-1) is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle more than once.
Sweet River Baines looks almost like a ringer in this field, having taken the Place last time out against open (no conditions) $40k Claimers. Sweet River Baines has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career starts over this main track.
Twice as Fast could be the speed of the speed here. River of Champagne is the only entrant here with multiple victories, and could get a nice stalking trip. Kenny Benny performed well in his synthetic track debut last time out, and followed up that performance with a nice work over this main track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 6,10 with 5 with 3 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 6,7,8,10 with ALL with 3 $44.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 6,10 with 5 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,10 with 5 with 4,7,9 $3.00
Total: $53.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 12, 2017
11/12/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Six Cider (Final Odds 1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Mal Verde (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Small Town Cop (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Oso Strong (13.80) - No Selection
The good news in Sunday's play was getting an "A" Selection home in the third leg that wasn't the Post Time Favorite. The bad news in Sunday's play was having no part whatsoever of the winner of the final leg, a leg in which my twenty-twenty hindsight tells me that I should have hit the "ALL" button.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the five runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 2 Trojan Time (4.90) - $112.80 Finish: 4th
# 3 Jersey Kid (8.00) - $149.25 Finish: 7th
# 4 Holly Cat (3.20) - $55.70 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Original Intent (1.70*) - $39.70 Finish: 6th
# 8 Knight Solaire (4.00) - $73.20 Finish: 2nd
Note that the above payouts for Trojan Time and Jersey Kid would have been trebled had either of those two emerged victorious, as that would have allowed me to cash my "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 6 / 9 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $412.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Mal Verde (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Small Town Cop (4.20) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 7 Oso Strong (13.80) - No Selection
The good news in Sunday's play was getting an "A" Selection home in the third leg that wasn't the Post Time Favorite. The bad news in Sunday's play was having no part whatsoever of the winner of the final leg, a leg in which my twenty-twenty hindsight tells me that I should have hit the "ALL" button.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the five runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 2 Trojan Time (4.90) - $112.80 Finish: 4th
# 3 Jersey Kid (8.00) - $149.25 Finish: 7th
# 4 Holly Cat (3.20) - $55.70 Finish: 3rd
# 6 Original Intent (1.70*) - $39.70 Finish: 6th
# 8 Knight Solaire (4.00) - $73.20 Finish: 2nd
Note that the above payouts for Trojan Time and Jersey Kid would have been trebled had either of those two emerged victorious, as that would have allowed me to cash my "All A Selections" ticket as well as the big ticket.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 4 / 6 / 9 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $412.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/12/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
An interesting mix to the final four contests on the Sunday card at Golden Gate. There's a pair of turf routes (at least, as I type this, they're still on the turf) as well as a pair of main track sprints. Two of races are for non-winners of one, while the other two are open claimers with no conditions. So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Six Cider (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 6 Seau (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Lion Command (ML 5-2)
Lion Command and Six Cider have taken turns finishing in front of each other in each of their last two starts. I'm going to give the edge today to Six Cider, as I think he'll do better with the yielding surface. Seau, who has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last five races, will be trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he'll handle it fine.
RACE 7 - Clm $40k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Bronze Star (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mal Verde (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Administer (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 2 Marino's Wild Cat (ML 4-1)
Bronze Star, going third off the layoff for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place against more expensive stock the last time that he competed around just one turn, two starts back over the real dirt at Fresno. Mal Verde was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level over this main track, and seems to have been working well for his return after taking the Summer off. Administer, who, like Mal Verde, is trained by Blaine Wright, has been running consistently well throughout 2017.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 American Aristocat (ML 3-1)
# 9 Small Town Cop (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Lucky Views (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mighty Marino (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sizzlin Joe (ML 9-2)
# 7 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 9-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Il Segreto (Fr) (ML 4-1)
American Aristocat and Small Town Cop filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire just a head apart. Lucky Views fits well at this class level. Mighty Marino could improve with the return to turf.
Sizzlin Joe could be the one running best late. Abbey Vale (Ire) is taking a significant drop down the class ladder. Seems hard to believe that Abbey Vale won a $50k claiming race at 3-1 odds on the Santa Anita turf just six months ago.
RACE 9 - Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Trojan Time (ML 9-2)
# 3 Jersey Kid (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Holly Cat (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Original Intent (ML 5-2)
# 8 Knight Solaire (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 5 Write Me a Song (ML 12-1)
These are juveniles; Trojan Time and Holly Cat are the only two experienced competitors. Trojan Time ran well to take the Show in his debut against cheaper last time out; while Holly Cat drops in for a tag for the first time after showing good early speed in each of her initial two outings. Jersey Kid is out of a mare that has produced five winners from five starters.
Original Intent was working well for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Owner West Point Thoroughbreds right up until that bullet work at Los Alamitos on September 22. The fact that this runner, after a trio of works at Santa Anita, was then shipped upstate and is being offered up for sale in his debut suggests that something is not quite what it was two months ago. Still, the connections must be respected. Knight Solaire, trained by Andy Mathis, is another to be respected based upon the connections, specifically Mathis' success with those running for a tag prior to obtaining their first victory.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2,3,4 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,9 with 2,3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 6,8 $4.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Six Cider (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 6 Seau (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Lion Command (ML 5-2)
Lion Command and Six Cider have taken turns finishing in front of each other in each of their last two starts. I'm going to give the edge today to Six Cider, as I think he'll do better with the yielding surface. Seau, who has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last five races, will be trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he'll handle it fine.
RACE 7 - Clm $40k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Bronze Star (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mal Verde (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Administer (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 2 Marino's Wild Cat (ML 4-1)
Bronze Star, going third off the layoff for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place against more expensive stock the last time that he competed around just one turn, two starts back over the real dirt at Fresno. Mal Verde was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level over this main track, and seems to have been working well for his return after taking the Summer off. Administer, who, like Mal Verde, is trained by Blaine Wright, has been running consistently well throughout 2017.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 American Aristocat (ML 3-1)
# 9 Small Town Cop (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Lucky Views (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mighty Marino (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sizzlin Joe (ML 9-2)
# 7 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 9-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Il Segreto (Fr) (ML 4-1)
American Aristocat and Small Town Cop filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire just a head apart. Lucky Views fits well at this class level. Mighty Marino could improve with the return to turf.
Sizzlin Joe could be the one running best late. Abbey Vale (Ire) is taking a significant drop down the class ladder. Seems hard to believe that Abbey Vale won a $50k claiming race at 3-1 odds on the Santa Anita turf just six months ago.
RACE 9 - Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Trojan Time (ML 9-2)
# 3 Jersey Kid (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Holly Cat (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Original Intent (ML 5-2)
# 8 Knight Solaire (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 5 Write Me a Song (ML 12-1)
These are juveniles; Trojan Time and Holly Cat are the only two experienced competitors. Trojan Time ran well to take the Show in his debut against cheaper last time out; while Holly Cat drops in for a tag for the first time after showing good early speed in each of her initial two outings. Jersey Kid is out of a mare that has produced five winners from five starters.
Original Intent was working well for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Owner West Point Thoroughbreds right up until that bullet work at Los Alamitos on September 22. The fact that this runner, after a trio of works at Santa Anita, was then shipped upstate and is being offered up for sale in his debut suggests that something is not quite what it was two months ago. Still, the connections must be respected. Knight Solaire, trained by Andy Mathis, is another to be respected based upon the connections, specifically Mathis' success with those running for a tag prior to obtaining their first victory.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2,3,4 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,9 with 2,3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 6,8 $4.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 11, 2017
11/11/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Dixie Pistol (Final Odds 1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Golden Nugget - # 4 Runaway Ghost (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 One Eyed Mama (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Top Drawer (3.00) - "C" Selection
The backup ticket does its job, as it recoups most of the initial investment. Interestingly enough, thinking more highly of Top Drawer in the nightcap and promoting him from a "C" Selection to a "B" Selection would have been a better handicapping move; but based upon the final results, it would have increased the cost of the play without increasing the return of the payout. So any improvement to be made in Saturday's play would have had to have been in narrowing the focus onto one of the winning Post Time Favorites in the earlier three legs.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 2 Pete’s Slew (1.40*) - $20.35 Finish: 5th
# 3 Hot Market (6.30) - $76.00 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Academic Code (10.10) - $197.55 Finish: 7th
# 6 Super C Me (6.00) - $82.50 Finish: 4th
Since # 2 Pete’s Slew and # 6 Super C Me would have allowed me to cash my one dollar “ALL A Selections” ticket in addition to the big ticket, payouts for those two runners would have been trebled.
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 4 / 1 / 8 which paid $33.95 for a fifty cent wager. Since my initial investment was $45.00, I cash at a loss of eleven dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Golden Nugget - # 4 Runaway Ghost (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 One Eyed Mama (1.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Top Drawer (3.00) - "C" Selection
The backup ticket does its job, as it recoups most of the initial investment. Interestingly enough, thinking more highly of Top Drawer in the nightcap and promoting him from a "C" Selection to a "B" Selection would have been a better handicapping move; but based upon the final results, it would have increased the cost of the play without increasing the return of the payout. So any improvement to be made in Saturday's play would have had to have been in narrowing the focus onto one of the winning Post Time Favorites in the earlier three legs.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the finale:
# 2 Pete’s Slew (1.40*) - $20.35 Finish: 5th
# 3 Hot Market (6.30) - $76.00 Finish: 2nd
# 5 Academic Code (10.10) - $197.55 Finish: 7th
# 6 Super C Me (6.00) - $82.50 Finish: 4th
Since # 2 Pete’s Slew and # 6 Super C Me would have allowed me to cash my one dollar “ALL A Selections” ticket in addition to the big ticket, payouts for those two runners would have been trebled.
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 5 / 4 / 1 / 8 which paid $33.95 for a fifty cent wager. Since my initial investment was $45.00, I cash at a loss of eleven dollars and five cents; and while that certainly beats not cashing at all, it definitely wasn’t what I had in mind when I placed my wagers.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/11/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview
“Honor to the soldier and sailor everywhere, who bravely bears his country's cause. Honor, also, to the citizen who cares for his brother in the field and serves, as he best can, the same cause.” - Abraham Lincoln
A heartfelt "Thank You!" to all who have served the cause of freedom, both those who are still with us and those who have passed on, as we celebrate this Veterans Day / Remembrance Day / Armistice Day. As part of that celebration of freedom, we turn to those activities which we enjoy; one of which is Saturday's card at Golden Gate Fields, which includes the $50k Golden Nugget, a six furlong sprint for juveniles. So with that said let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Alw 8000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Roaring Rule (Morning Line 2-1)
# 5 Dixie Pistol (ML 8-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 8 Nowhere Man (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Tie Event (ML 5-2), who was entered for the main track only. Also scratch # 7 Burger and Fries (Fr) (ML 20-1)
Note for future reference that this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry. So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $8k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.
A heartfelt "Thank You!" to all who have served the cause of freedom, both those who are still with us and those who have passed on, as we celebrate this Veterans Day / Remembrance Day / Armistice Day. As part of that celebration of freedom, we turn to those activities which we enjoy; one of which is Saturday's card at Golden Gate Fields, which includes the $50k Golden Nugget, a six furlong sprint for juveniles. So with that said let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - Alw 8000s - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Roaring Rule (Morning Line 2-1)
# 5 Dixie Pistol (ML 8-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 8 Nowhere Man (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 1 Black Tie Event (ML 5-2), who was entered for the main track only. Also scratch # 7 Burger and Fries (Fr) (ML 20-1)
Note for future reference that this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry. So any runner that has started for a claiming price of $8k or less, either this year or last, is eligible to run here.
Roaring Rule was a winner at this class level last time out, albeit over the main track. Dixie Pistol gets some well deserved class relief here. Nowhere Man disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out, but could move up with the softer sod beneath his hooves.
RACE 7 - The Golden Nugget $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Runaway Ghost (ML 2-1)
B's
# 2 Intimidate (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Generally Lucky (ML 3-1)
Runaway Ghost could be a runaway winner here, as he has been working well off the five month layoff. The only question for Runaway Ghost is how he will handle the all weather surface, as all his impressive workouts have been over the Santa Anita main track.
Intimidate is undefeated in two lifetime starts, both over this main track. Generally Lucky could be the one running best late.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 One Eyed Mama (ML 3-1)
B's
# 2 Boldest Vow (ML 7-2)
# 3 C C Rocks (ML 12-1)
# 4 Austria (ML 10-1)
# 6 Christiana's Song (ML 9-5)
# 8 Palace Ghost (ML 9-2)
C's
None
One Eyed Mama and C C Rocks filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Boldest Vow ships in from downstate for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and should appreciate the class relief. Austria took the Place at this class level two starts back, crossing under the wire four lengths in front of Christiana's Song.
Christiana's Song makes her first start for Trainer John Martin, who tends to do well with newcomers. Palace Ghost tries the grass as well as two turn racing for the first time; her breeding suggests that she should do well at both.
RACE 9 - Clm $6.25k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Pete's Slew (ML 8-5)
# 6 Super C Me (ML 6-1)
B's
# 3 Hot Market (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Academic Code (ML 12-1)
# 8 Top Drawer (ML 7-2)
This contest is restricted to runners which have either:
1) Not won a race since August 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.
So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race. If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of July (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $5k or less don't count when computing the Win totals). For the record, # 1 Somsi (ML 12-1), # 5 Academic Code (ML 12-1), and # 7 Ace On the River (ML 15-1) are the three runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.
Pete's Slew was victorious at today's distance the last time the he competed over this main track. Super C Me is making his Golden Gate Fields debut, but he has run well previous over the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs.
Hot Market could improve with the change of surface. Academic Code was victorious at this class level two starts back, albeit over the real dirt at Pleasanton. Top Draw has failed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last eight starts; but perhaps the change in barn will help Top Draw improve his fortunes.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,5 with 4 with 1 with 2,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 2,4 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2,3,6 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4 with 1 with 2,6 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 1 with 1 with 2,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4 with 1 with 5,8 $2.00
Total: $45.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 5, 2017
11/5/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Sasini (GB) (Final Odds 2.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Make It a Triple (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Moonless Sky (1.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Topgallant (3.30*) - "B" Selection
So a day after the Breeders' Cup madness where Post Time Favorites seemed to be avoiding the Winner's Circle at all costs, we have a chalk 'em up Sunday where only two of the nine winners on the card didn't have an asterisk after its final odds; and one of those two still only paid $5.80.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Second Gear (9.30) - $87.80 Finish: 7th
# 8 Brilliant Light (5.00) - $64.45 Finish: 3rd
# 10 Super Duper Cooper (3.90) - $57.05 Finish: 2nd
# 12 Chin Tu (13.70) - $122.55 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 9 / 4 / 9 which paid $71.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $11.90 on the initial $60 investment, or approximate odds of .20-1, or 1-5. Which sure ain't much; but if you think that I'm turning my nose up at profit of any kind, especially after a day like the past two, well, you just don't know me.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 9 Make It a Triple (1.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Moonless Sky (1.70*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Topgallant (3.30*) - "B" Selection
So a day after the Breeders' Cup madness where Post Time Favorites seemed to be avoiding the Winner's Circle at all costs, we have a chalk 'em up Sunday where only two of the nine winners on the card didn't have an asterisk after its final odds; and one of those two still only paid $5.80.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other four runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 Second Gear (9.30) - $87.80 Finish: 7th
# 8 Brilliant Light (5.00) - $64.45 Finish: 3rd
# 10 Super Duper Cooper (3.90) - $57.05 Finish: 2nd
# 12 Chin Tu (13.70) - $122.55 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 9 / 4 / 9 which paid $71.90 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $11.90 on the initial $60 investment, or approximate odds of .20-1, or 1-5. Which sure ain't much; but if you think that I'm turning my nose up at profit of any kind, especially after a day like the past two, well, you just don't know me.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/5/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
The Breeders' Cup is over, but the horse racing goes on. And of course I'm keeping my action at Del Mar to finish out the weekend; they've got my money! So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Connie (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Sasini (GB) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Scandal (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Glory and Power (ML 6-1)
# 5 Malibu Model (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Danuska's My Girl (ML 8-1)
Sweet Connie looks to have good tactical speed, and she could get a nice stalking trip here. Sasini (GB) is stakes placed overseas. Scandal certainly has the talent to win at this level; now it's just a question of if she wants to or not.
Glory and Power seems to have taken a step backwards last time out; perhaps she just needed that race. Malibu Model could be the quickest in this field.
RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Make It a Triple (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 7 Go Ghetto (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Roosevelt (ML 4-1)
# 3 True Ranger (ML 12-1)
# 6 Lucky Patrick (ML 30-1)
Make It a Triple took the Place against classier foes last time out. Go Ghetto goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such. Note also Baltas tends to be successful when turning back his runners from two turns to one.
Roosevelt tries winners for the first time after graduating rather easily in his first attempt in the claiming ranks. True Ranger may have needed that last one. Lucky Patrick may improve with the reduction in real estate.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Jeremy's Legacy (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Cordiality (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Moonless Sky (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Bert's Melody (ML 8-1)
Jeremy's Legacy (Ire) soundly defeated Cordiality when these two engaged over this turf course back in August; but Cordiality did not have the best of trips that day, and appears to have the better current form.
Moonless Sky has disappointed in two of her last three starts as the Post Time Favorite. Bert's Melody could be the quickest in this field.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Second Gear (ML 6-1)
B's
# 8 Brilliant Light (ML 6-1)
# 9 Topgallant (ML 6-1)
# 10 Super Duper Cooper (ML 7-2)
# 12 Chin Tu (ML 6-1)
C's
# 7 Vow's Son (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Kenzou's Empire (ML 8-1) and # 4 Wonderoveryonder (ML 30-1). Don't bring in # 11 Bryan Habana (Arg) from the Also Eligibles, as he is scratched as well; but do bring in # 12 Chin Tu (ML 6-1).
Second Gear may be developing seconditis; but Second Gear sure looks qualified enough to win here. Brilliant Light and Super Duper Cooper are two taking a serious drop down the class ladder. Topgallant was about two lengths behind Second Gear at the wire last time out; but Topgallant may be best positioned late to take advantage if Second Gear decides to remain camera shy.
Chin Tu drops in class and stretches out for the first time; perhaps he'll enjoy the extra yardage. Vow's Son took the Place at this class level in front of a next out winner two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 1,7 with 1 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 7,9 with 1,4,7 with 1,8,9,10,12 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 9 with 1,7 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 1,3,6 with 1,7 with 1 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 5 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 1,7 with 7 $2.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Sweet Connie (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Sasini (GB) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Scandal (ML 3-1)
C's
# 4 Glory and Power (ML 6-1)
# 5 Malibu Model (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 3 Danuska's My Girl (ML 8-1)
Sweet Connie looks to have good tactical speed, and she could get a nice stalking trip here. Sasini (GB) is stakes placed overseas. Scandal certainly has the talent to win at this level; now it's just a question of if she wants to or not.
Glory and Power seems to have taken a step backwards last time out; perhaps she just needed that race. Malibu Model could be the quickest in this field.
RACE 7 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Make It a Triple (ML 2-1)
B’s
# 7 Go Ghetto (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Roosevelt (ML 4-1)
# 3 True Ranger (ML 12-1)
# 6 Lucky Patrick (ML 30-1)
Make It a Triple took the Place against classier foes last time out. Go Ghetto goes first off the claim for Trainer Richard Baltas, who tends to do well with such. Note also Baltas tends to be successful when turning back his runners from two turns to one.
Roosevelt tries winners for the first time after graduating rather easily in his first attempt in the claiming ranks. True Ranger may have needed that last one. Lucky Patrick may improve with the reduction in real estate.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62.5k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Jeremy's Legacy (Ire) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Cordiality (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Moonless Sky (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Bert's Melody (ML 8-1)
Jeremy's Legacy (Ire) soundly defeated Cordiality when these two engaged over this turf course back in August; but Cordiality did not have the best of trips that day, and appears to have the better current form.
Moonless Sky has disappointed in two of her last three starts as the Post Time Favorite. Bert's Melody could be the quickest in this field.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Second Gear (ML 6-1)
B's
# 8 Brilliant Light (ML 6-1)
# 9 Topgallant (ML 6-1)
# 10 Super Duper Cooper (ML 7-2)
# 12 Chin Tu (ML 6-1)
C's
# 7 Vow's Son (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 3 Kenzou's Empire (ML 8-1) and # 4 Wonderoveryonder (ML 30-1). Don't bring in # 11 Bryan Habana (Arg) from the Also Eligibles, as he is scratched as well; but do bring in # 12 Chin Tu (ML 6-1).
Second Gear may be developing seconditis; but Second Gear sure looks qualified enough to win here. Brilliant Light and Super Duper Cooper are two taking a serious drop down the class ladder. Topgallant was about two lengths behind Second Gear at the wire last time out; but Topgallant may be best positioned late to take advantage if Second Gear decides to remain camera shy.
Chin Tu drops in class and stretches out for the first time; perhaps he'll enjoy the extra yardage. Vow's Son took the Place at this class level in front of a next out winner two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 1,7 with 1 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,7,8 with 7,9 with 1,4,7 with 1,8,9,10,12 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 9 with 1,7 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 1,3,6 with 1,7 with 1 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 5 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 9 with 1,7 with 7 $2.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 4, 2017
11/4/17 Del Mar All BC Late Pick Four - Results
Race 9 - The BC Mile - # 5 World Approval (Final Odds 2.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The BC Juvenile - # 6 Good Magic (11.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Turf - # 1 Talismanic (GB) (14.10) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 5 Gun Runner (2.40) - "B" Selection
Special congratulations belong to World Approval, the only Post Time Favorite to visit the Winner's Circle Saturday at Del Mar. And a hearty "Well Done!" to Classic winner Gun Runner and Place finisher # 11 Collected (5.90), who ran their respective hearts out to give us yet another classic Classic. As to my play, well, you know how this song goes: had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Early Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 1 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $1,257.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The BC Juvenile - # 6 Good Magic (11.50) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The BC Turf - # 1 Talismanic (GB) (14.10) - "B" Selection
Race 12 - The BC Classic - # 5 Gun Runner (2.40) - "B" Selection
Special congratulations belong to World Approval, the only Post Time Favorite to visit the Winner's Circle Saturday at Del Mar. And a hearty "Well Done!" to Classic winner Gun Runner and Place finisher # 11 Collected (5.90), who ran their respective hearts out to give us yet another classic Classic. As to my play, well, you know how this song goes: had 'em all, but not all on any one ticket.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Early Pick Four sequence of 5 / 6 / 1 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $1,257.15 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/4/17 Del Mar All BC Early Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - The BC Turf Sprint - # 4 Stormy Liberal (Final Odds 30.20) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - The BC F&M Sprint - # 5 Bar of Gold (66.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - The BC F&M Turf - # 5 Wuheida (GB) (11.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The BC Sprint - # 8 Roy H (4.90) - "B" Selection
So Peter Miller wins a pair at Del Mar; isn't that kinda the norm? Well, yeah; but not if it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, as these two victories represent the first two BC Wins of Miller's career. Meanwhile, the horses that ran 1 - 2 to fill out a $22.20 two dollar Exacta in a Grade 2 contest in September reverse order today to complete the Exacta in the second leg of the sequence; an Exacta that paid $2,060.40 for a deuce. All big hits for those who had them; and, sorry to say, I didn't have them.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Early Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $289,005.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - The BC F&M Sprint - # 5 Bar of Gold (66.70) - No Selection
Race 7 - The BC F&M Turf - # 5 Wuheida (GB) (11.20) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The BC Sprint - # 8 Roy H (4.90) - "B" Selection
So Peter Miller wins a pair at Del Mar; isn't that kinda the norm? Well, yeah; but not if it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, as these two victories represent the first two BC Wins of Miller's career. Meanwhile, the horses that ran 1 - 2 to fill out a $22.20 two dollar Exacta in a Grade 2 contest in September reverse order today to complete the Exacta in the second leg of the sequence; an Exacta that paid $2,060.40 for a deuce. All big hits for those who had them; and, sorry to say, I didn't have them.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Breeders' Cup Early Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $289,005.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/4/17 Del Mar All BC Late Pick Four - Preview
And so we reach the climax of the 2017 Breeders' Cup, the final four events, culminating in the BC Classic. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 World Approval (Morning Line 9-2)
# 10 Ribchester (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Suedois (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Roly Poly (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Zelzal (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Home of The Brave (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Karar (GB) (ML 15-1)
I'd give a slight edge to Ribchester (Ire) over World Approval; but World Approval did get the better draw. I expect these two to engage early. Roly Poly looks like one that will also be prominent early; while Suedois (Fr) could be the one running best late.
Zelzal has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but Zelzal could get a nice stalking trip here. Home of The Brave (Ire) didn't care much for charging down the Santa Anita Hill last year; I expect him to improve with the move to the flats. Karar (GB) is another that seems to get weighed down when there's too much money on his nose; but Karar could improve with firmer footing beneath him.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 U S Navy Flag (ML 8-1)
# 2 Solomini (ML 6-1)
# 3 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Free Drop Billy (ML 5-1)
# 6 Good Magic (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I believe Bolt d'Oro to be a clear standout here, head and shoulders above the rest of the field. But this is still a horse race, meaning anything can happen; so that's why I included a few backup "C" Selections in my play. Solomini, Place behind Bolt d'Oro in the Grade 1 Frontrunner, is probably the best of the backups; but, in my opinion, the battle for second in this contest should prove to be pretty wide open.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Highland Reel (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Bullards Alley (ML 15-1)
# 4 Decorated Knight (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bigger Picture (ML 15-1)
# 9 Seventh Heaven (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Beach Patrol (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 5 Ulysses (Ire) (ML 7-2)
With the scratch of Morning Line Favorite Ulysses (Ire), last year's winner of this event, Highland Reel (Ire) looks in my opinion to be the best here. I think the keys for Highland Reel is that he seems to run much better over a firm sod, and I also like that he doesn't need the lead to win; though, as he proved last year, he can certainly take this bunch from gate to wire.
Talismanic (GB) seems to be rounding into top form at just the right time. Bullards Alley was superb last time out in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Wooodbine; a repeat of that effort could get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Decorated Knight (GB) could get a nice tracking trip just behind the leaders. Bigger Picture is another the might get the benefit of a nice tracking trip; while Seventh Heaven (Ire) looks to be among those that will be charging late. Beach Patrol had perhaps the best race of his career last time out in his first try going twelve furlongs; perhaps that wasn't a coincidence.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Collected (ML 6-1)
B's
# 5 Gun Runner (ML 9-5)
# 8 West Coast (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Arrogate (ML 2-1)
# 6 Mubtaahij (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Churchill (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Pavel (ML 20-1)
In my opinion, Collected is the best horse in this field. Is my opinion correct? We'll know approximately two minutes after they open the gates.
Gun Runner's credentials are well established. Maybe West Coast can just keep getting better.
While the following is an opinion that I'm sure is shared by very few, I personally would have loved to have seen Arrogate compete in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Arrogate definitely has the breeding for grass; and we know that he has no love for this main track. Anyway, maybe the old Arrogate shows up today; but even if he does, I'm not convinced that he can reach the wire in front of Collected.
Mubtaahij (Ire) is the other other other Baffert. Churchill (Ire) might shock the world. Pavel ran the best race of his career last time out, his first time trying ten furlongs.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 11 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,8,10,12 with 11 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,12 with 5,8,11 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,9,14 with 11 with 3 with 11 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 3 with 11 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 1,6,7,10 $4.00
Total: $54.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:19 EDT / 3:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 World Approval (Morning Line 9-2)
# 10 Ribchester (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Suedois (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Roly Poly (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Zelzal (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Home of The Brave (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Karar (GB) (ML 15-1)
I'd give a slight edge to Ribchester (Ire) over World Approval; but World Approval did get the better draw. I expect these two to engage early. Roly Poly looks like one that will also be prominent early; while Suedois (Fr) could be the one running best late.
Zelzal has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but Zelzal could get a nice stalking trip here. Home of The Brave (Ire) didn't care much for charging down the Santa Anita Hill last year; I expect him to improve with the move to the flats. Karar (GB) is another that seems to get weighed down when there's too much money on his nose; but Karar could improve with firmer footing beneath him.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 U S Navy Flag (ML 8-1)
# 2 Solomini (ML 6-1)
# 3 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Free Drop Billy (ML 5-1)
# 6 Good Magic (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I believe Bolt d'Oro to be a clear standout here, head and shoulders above the rest of the field. But this is still a horse race, meaning anything can happen; so that's why I included a few backup "C" Selections in my play. Solomini, Place behind Bolt d'Oro in the Grade 1 Frontrunner, is probably the best of the backups; but, in my opinion, the battle for second in this contest should prove to be pretty wide open.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Highland Reel (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Bullards Alley (ML 15-1)
# 4 Decorated Knight (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bigger Picture (ML 15-1)
# 9 Seventh Heaven (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Beach Patrol (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 5 Ulysses (Ire) (ML 7-2)
With the scratch of Morning Line Favorite Ulysses (Ire), last year's winner of this event, Highland Reel (Ire) looks in my opinion to be the best here. I think the keys for Highland Reel is that he seems to run much better over a firm sod, and I also like that he doesn't need the lead to win; though, as he proved last year, he can certainly take this bunch from gate to wire.
Talismanic (GB) seems to be rounding into top form at just the right time. Bullards Alley was superb last time out in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Wooodbine; a repeat of that effort could get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Decorated Knight (GB) could get a nice tracking trip just behind the leaders. Bigger Picture is another the might get the benefit of a nice tracking trip; while Seventh Heaven (Ire) looks to be among those that will be charging late. Beach Patrol had perhaps the best race of his career last time out in his first try going twelve furlongs; perhaps that wasn't a coincidence.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Collected (ML 6-1)
B's
# 5 Gun Runner (ML 9-5)
# 8 West Coast (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Arrogate (ML 2-1)
# 6 Mubtaahij (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Churchill (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Pavel (ML 20-1)
In my opinion, Collected is the best horse in this field. Is my opinion correct? We'll know approximately two minutes after they open the gates.
Gun Runner's credentials are well established. Maybe West Coast can just keep getting better.
While the following is an opinion that I'm sure is shared by very few, I personally would have loved to have seen Arrogate compete in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Arrogate definitely has the breeding for grass; and we know that he has no love for this main track. Anyway, maybe the old Arrogate shows up today; but even if he does, I'm not convinced that he can reach the wire in front of Collected.
Mubtaahij (Ire) is the other other other Baffert. Churchill (Ire) might shock the world. Pavel ran the best race of his career last time out, his first time trying ten furlongs.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 11 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,8,10,12 with 11 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,12 with 5,8,11 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,9,14 with 11 with 3 with 11 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 3 with 11 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 1,6,7,10 $4.00
Total: $54.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:19 EDT / 3:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/4/17 Del Mar All BC Early Pick Four - Preview
Saturday brings us to Day 2 of the 2017 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar, and we have a Pick Four Double Header; Races 5 - 8 (inclusive) for the first play, and Races 9 - 12 (inclusive) to close out the card. This post is dedicated to the early sequence; so let's get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Lady Aurelia (ML 5-2)
# 6 Marsha (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Disco Partner (ML 9-2)
# 4 Stormy Liberal (ML 12-1)
# 5 Washington DC (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Bucchero (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Guns Loaded (ML 20-1), and # 14 Paquita Coqueta (ML 20-1)
The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is always a thing of beauty, and the charge down the Santa Anita hill is certainly a wondrous sight to behold. But the charge down the hill really isn't a turf sprint per se, as its two turns and six and a half furlongs distance make it very much more suited to milers than sprinters, not to mention to runners that just love the thrill of speeding down the hill side. So for those runners that are pure turf sprinters, the change of location for the Breeders' Cup will no doubt be welcomed.
Lady Aurelia and Marsha (Ire) are the only two distaff runners in this field (with Paquita Coqueta not drawing in); they are also, in my opinion, clearly the two best runners in this field. Lady Aurelia probably enjoys a slight edge (as confirmed by the Morning Line odds), but I believe these two to be close enough in talent to place them both equally at the top of the ticket.
Disco Partner might have received more consideration to be included on the big ticket had he not drawn the rail, where I think that he will be disadvantaged by his come from behind running style. Stormy Liberal looks to be the one that will be riding the rail to lead the field early.
Washington DC (Ire) makes it onto my tickets again this year because I remain convinced that, at his best, he has the chance to pull off the upset and blow up the tote board. Bucchero has already proved the ability to win when not expected; at the least, Bucchero should be a pace presence early, and thus avoid any traffic issues late.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Unique Bella (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Paulassilverlining (ML 8-1)
# 7 By the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 12 Skye Diamonds (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Finest City (ML 12-1)
# 9 Finley'sluckycharm (ML 6-1)
Unique Bella has done little wrong so far in her six race career; but Saturday's field is significantly more talented than that which she's been facing; so it seemed prudent to me to spread a bit here.
Paulassilverlining is coming off her one bad outing of 2017. I expect Paulassilverlining to be much improved off the freshening. By the Moon has been solid all year long. Syke Diamonds has shown an affinity for this main track, and she seems to be peaking at just the right time.
Finest City, last year's winner of this event, may no longer be at the level that she was in 2016. Finley'sluckycharm has finished in the Exacta in each of her last nine events, though Finley'sluckycharm does seem to just miss whenever she rises above Grade 3 company.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Lady Eli (ML 5-2)
# 14 Rhododendron (Ire) (ML 8-1)
B's
# 5 Wuheida (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Queen's Trust (GB) (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 War Flag (ML 12-1)
# 7 Dacita (Chi) (8-1)
# 8 Grand Jete (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Nezwaah (GB) (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Kitten's Roar (ML 20-1), and # 16 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Note that a furlong has been chopped off this event in the twelve months since it was last run.
Lady Eli looks to have a clear edge over the rest of the field. You know; just like last year, when she lost to Queen's Trust (GB) by a nose. Rhododendron seems to be peaking at just the right time. Wuheida (GB) should be quick enough early to avoid any traffic issues late.
War Flag, Dacita (Chi), and Grad Jete (GB) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park. The trio seems to be close enough in talent that if I was to use one on the big ticket, then I would need to use all three on the big ticket; and I didn't think that their talent level justified that kind of investment. Nezwaah (GB) seems to leave her "A" game overseas when she comes to the US. Perhaps skipping the Lasix will help her regain her form.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Drefong (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Takaful (ML 5-1)
# 8 Roy H (ML 7-2)
# 10 Imperial Hint (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ransom the Moon (ML 12-1)
In the days leading up to the Post Position draw for the Breeders' Cup races, I felt sure that I would be using defending champ Drefong as a big ticket single. However, examining the Past Performances for this field, I felt that it would be better for my nerves and general disposition if I was to spread a bit here, in what will be the final race of the sequence.
Needless to say, Drefong has done little wrong in his eight race career. Takaful's form looks much better when you focus only on his contests under a mile in distance. Roy H looks well positioned for a nice stalking trip.
Imperial Hint just keeps winning. Mind Your Biscuits and Ransom the Moon are two that can be forgiven for their respective last "efforts".
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,7,11,12 with 5,9,10,14 with 2,7,8,10 $64.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,11 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 4,9 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 1,7,8,11 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 6,9 $4.00
Total: $84.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 - The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Lady Aurelia (ML 5-2)
# 6 Marsha (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Disco Partner (ML 9-2)
# 4 Stormy Liberal (ML 12-1)
# 5 Washington DC (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 11 Bucchero (ML 12-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 13 Guns Loaded (ML 20-1), and # 14 Paquita Coqueta (ML 20-1)
The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita is always a thing of beauty, and the charge down the Santa Anita hill is certainly a wondrous sight to behold. But the charge down the hill really isn't a turf sprint per se, as its two turns and six and a half furlongs distance make it very much more suited to milers than sprinters, not to mention to runners that just love the thrill of speeding down the hill side. So for those runners that are pure turf sprinters, the change of location for the Breeders' Cup will no doubt be welcomed.
Lady Aurelia and Marsha (Ire) are the only two distaff runners in this field (with Paquita Coqueta not drawing in); they are also, in my opinion, clearly the two best runners in this field. Lady Aurelia probably enjoys a slight edge (as confirmed by the Morning Line odds), but I believe these two to be close enough in talent to place them both equally at the top of the ticket.
Disco Partner might have received more consideration to be included on the big ticket had he not drawn the rail, where I think that he will be disadvantaged by his come from behind running style. Stormy Liberal looks to be the one that will be riding the rail to lead the field early.
Washington DC (Ire) makes it onto my tickets again this year because I remain convinced that, at his best, he has the chance to pull off the upset and blow up the tote board. Bucchero has already proved the ability to win when not expected; at the least, Bucchero should be a pace presence early, and thus avoid any traffic issues late.
RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Unique Bella (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Paulassilverlining (ML 8-1)
# 7 By the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 12 Skye Diamonds (ML 5-1)
C's
# 4 Finest City (ML 12-1)
# 9 Finley'sluckycharm (ML 6-1)
Unique Bella has done little wrong so far in her six race career; but Saturday's field is significantly more talented than that which she's been facing; so it seemed prudent to me to spread a bit here.
Paulassilverlining is coming off her one bad outing of 2017. I expect Paulassilverlining to be much improved off the freshening. By the Moon has been solid all year long. Syke Diamonds has shown an affinity for this main track, and she seems to be peaking at just the right time.
Finest City, last year's winner of this event, may no longer be at the level that she was in 2016. Finley'sluckycharm has finished in the Exacta in each of her last nine events, though Finley'sluckycharm does seem to just miss whenever she rises above Grade 3 company.
RACE 7 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Lady Eli (ML 5-2)
# 14 Rhododendron (Ire) (ML 8-1)
B's
# 5 Wuheida (GB) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Queen's Trust (GB) (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 War Flag (ML 12-1)
# 7 Dacita (Chi) (8-1)
# 8 Grand Jete (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 11 Nezwaah (GB) (ML 20-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Kitten's Roar (ML 20-1), and # 16 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 20-1)
Note that a furlong has been chopped off this event in the twelve months since it was last run.
Lady Eli looks to have a clear edge over the rest of the field. You know; just like last year, when she lost to Queen's Trust (GB) by a nose. Rhododendron seems to be peaking at just the right time. Wuheida (GB) should be quick enough early to avoid any traffic issues late.
War Flag, Dacita (Chi), and Grad Jete (GB) filled out the Trifecta in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park. The trio seems to be close enough in talent that if I was to use one on the big ticket, then I would need to use all three on the big ticket; and I didn't think that their talent level justified that kind of investment. Nezwaah (GB) seems to leave her "A" game overseas when she comes to the US. Perhaps skipping the Lasix will help her regain her form.
RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Sprint (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Drefong (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Takaful (ML 5-1)
# 8 Roy H (ML 7-2)
# 10 Imperial Hint (ML 9-2)
C's
# 6 Mind Your Biscuits (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ransom the Moon (ML 12-1)
In the days leading up to the Post Position draw for the Breeders' Cup races, I felt sure that I would be using defending champ Drefong as a big ticket single. However, examining the Past Performances for this field, I felt that it would be better for my nerves and general disposition if I was to spread a bit here, in what will be the final race of the sequence.
Needless to say, Drefong has done little wrong in his eight race career. Takaful's form looks much better when you focus only on his contests under a mile in distance. Roy H looks well positioned for a nice stalking trip.
Imperial Hint just keeps winning. Mind Your Biscuits and Ransom the Moon are two that can be forgiven for their respective last "efforts".
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,7,11,12 with 5,9,10,14 with 2,7,8,10 $64.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,4,5,11 with 11 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 4,9 with 9,14 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 1,7,8,11 with 2 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 11 with 9,14 with 6,9 $4.00
Total: $84.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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