"When I started counting my blessings, my whole life turned around.” - Willie Nelson
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As America takes time as a nation to offer thanks for all with which it has been blessed, so too, I would like to take time to thank all of you who take time to read what an old handicapper has to say about horses running around in circles. Whether you come here every week or every blue moon, I'm grateful that you stopped by, and I hope that you enjoy your visit.
Shaking it up a bit this weekend by moving my action downstate. Also a heads up that I won't be posting anything for Friday; but (Good Lord willing) I'll be back with selections for Saturday and Sunday at Del Mar. Getting back to Thanksgiving, the Grade 3 Red Carpet is the featured race, with fillies and mares running on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.
RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 He's Stylish (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 3 Longden (ML 5-1)
# 4 Shivermetimbers (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 End of Spirits (ML 8-1)
# 6 Peace (ML 3-1)
# 9 Point Guard (ML 12-1)
He's Stylish and Shivermetimbers filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level over at Santa Anita last time out. Longden is a second time starter for trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such.
End of Spirits was quick early in his debut last time out. Peace closed well in his debut last time out. Point Guard may improve with the blinkers off.
RACE 6 - (F) The Red Carpet (Grade 3) - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Responsibleforlove (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 13 How Unusual (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Evo Campo (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 8 Do the Dance (ML 20-1)
# 10 Earring (ML 6-1)
# 11 Birdie Gold (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 9 Galileo's Song (Ire) (ML 5-1) and # 14 Lottie (ML 9-2)
The removal of the two New York based runners from the field certainly changes the complexion of this graded stakes. Responsibleforlove (Ire), who missed victory in the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive over at Santa Anita last time out by less than a length, seems well meant here. Note that Responsibleforlove already owns a victory at today's distance over this turf course.
How Unusual should do well with the rise in class, provided that she can avoid traffic problems late. Evo Campo (Ire) should improve with the return to turf. Do the Dance appears to be rounding into top form, and should be well placed early.
Earring could move up with the increase in real estate. Birdie Gold will have a better chance to show what she can do with the class relief.
RACE 7 - OC 50k/N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Warrior's Lullaby (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Neighborhood Bully (ML 7-2)
# 8 Royal Bar (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Psycho Dar (ML 5-1)
# 5 Royal Trump (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 4 Midnight Run (ML 12-1)
Like Race 5, the MSW contest above, this race is for two year olds. I used the official Optional Claimer designation above; but none of these runners are in for a tag; so, really, for all intents and purposes, this is a Starter Allowance for juveniles that have started for a claiming price of $50k or less and have never won two races (Alw 50000s N2L).
Warrior's Lullaby has yet to finish out of the Trifecta in three career starts. Warrior's Lullaby's good tactical speed should serve him well here.
Neighborhood Bully could move up with the return to Del Mar. Royal Bar goes first off the claim for Trainer John Sadler, who tends to do well with such.
Psycho Dar's best race so far was his debut, which came over this main track. Royal Trump may be the quickest early.
RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Chalky (Ire) (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Night Bloom (ML 15-1)
# 6 Halo Ahead (ML 9-2)
# 9 Achira (ML 7-2)
# 12 Lori's Attitude (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Prieta (ML 8-1)
# 7 Red Shelby (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 Lovely Raquel (ML 20-1) and # 14 Morning Dance (ML 5-1)
Chalky (Ire) makes her North American debut after finishing in the money in all three of her starts in Great Britain. Night Bloom could improve with a better trip.
Halo Ahead, who failed as the Post Time Favorite in four of her last five starts, certainly has the talent to win; perhaps today she'll also have the desire. Achira closed well in her debut last time out.
Lori's Attitude has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts, all charging down the Santa Anita hill. Perhaps Lori's Attitude will get an adjustment on the flats.
Prieta's breeding suggests that she'll do well at the distance. Red Shelby may improve with the change in scenery.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 7,13 with 3,8,9 with 3,4,6,9,12 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,6,9 with 7 with 9 with 3 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 8 with 3,8,10,11 with 9 with 3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,5 with 3 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 9 with 5,7 $1.00
Total: $51.50
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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