11/26/17 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

And so we reach the end of the holiday weekend; which, as it turns out, is also the final day of Del Mar's Fall meeting.  As was the case Saturday, there are three Graded Stakes on the Del Mar card Sunday; two of which are among the final four contests.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Pick Four at the place Where The Turf Meets The Surf.

RACE 6 - Alw 50000s N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Secret Touch (Morning Line 7-2)

B’s

# 3 Quality Line (ML 8-1)
# 6 Desert General (ML 9-2)
# 9 Divisor (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Rolls Royce Deal (ML 15-1)
# 5 Upperclassman (ML 5-1)
# 8 Street to Indy (ML 6-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; no exemptions.

Secret Touch has taken the Show at this class level in each of his last two starts.  Quality Line could move up with the return to one turn racing over this main track.  Desert General missed victory by a nose at this class level two starts back.

Divisor broke his maiden last time out; Trainer Phil D'Amato tends to do well when placing his last out graduates.  Also note that Divisor is the only runner in this field that did not compete at this class level in his last race.

Rolls Royce Deal took the Place at this class level last time out.  Street to Indy and Upperclassman filled out the bottom two slots in the Trifecta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire within a half length of each other.

RACE 7 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 7 Cambodia (ML 3-1)
# 8 Off Limits (Ire) (ML 5-1)

B's

# 9 Rubilinda (ML 10-1)
# 12 Kitten's Roar (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Lull (ML 5-1)
# 3 Pretty Girl (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 10 Hawksmoor (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Mrs McDougal (ML 15-1)

Cambodia took the Show in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf over this course last time out.  Off Limits (Ire) has either won or been within a length of the winner at the wire in each of her last eight races.  Rubilinda, like Off Limits, is trained by Chad Brown; and while Rubilinda enters this event having won a pair of Listed Stakes, she may not yet be on the same class level as her stablemate.

Kitten's Roar was the easy winner of the Grade 2 Goldikova over this turf course last time out.  Lull and Hawksmoor (Ire) are two that should be forwardly placed early, while Pretty Girl (Arg) is one that could be running best late. 

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Allianna (ML 5-2)

B's

# 8 Uno Trouble Maker (ML 12-1)
# 11 Tell Your Mama (ML 7-2)

C's

# 3 Zusha (ML 12-1)

# 5 Toinette (ML 12-1)

# 7 Pacific Kitty (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 13 Travieza (ML 6-1) and # 14 Mischievous Song (ML 4-1), as they do not draw in off the Also Eligible list.

Allianna, trained by Peter Miller, took the Show at this class level in her debut last time out.  Uno Trouble Maker is sired by Successful Appeal, whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.  Also note that Uno Trouble Maker's dam (Hope and Vow) also produced Ethan's Baby, who was a debut winner as well as a Listed Stakes winner as a two year old.

Tell Your Mama returns to a more realistic class level after barely picking up her feet in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.  Zusha and Toinette have the pedigree to suggest that they will do well at first asking, while Pacific Kitty looks to have been handling the track well in her morning workouts.

RACE 9 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Analyze It (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Amour Plate (ML 8-1)

C's

# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 5-1)
# 8 Choo Choo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Inscom (ML 7-2)

Analyze it did nothing wrong last time out in his Belmont debut for Trainer Chad Brown.  A repeat of that performance should get Analyze It into the Winner's Circle today.

Amour Plate took the Show in the Zuma Beach last time out, and seems well suited to today's distance.  Pubilius Syrus in each of his three turf starts.  Choo Choo ran well last time out after being steadied at the start.  Inscom was within a nose of Pubilius Syrus at the wire two starts back, and won for fun last time out.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,6,9 with 7,8,9,12 with 6,8,11 with 2,5 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2,5,8 with 7,8 with 6 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,10 with 6 with 2 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 3,5,7 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7,8 with 6 with 6,8,9 $3.00

Total: $60.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo