And so we reach the climax of the 2017 Breeders' Cup, the final four events, culminating in the BC Classic. So let's just get to it, as I take another run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 9 - The Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 World Approval (Morning Line 9-2)
# 10 Ribchester (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 8 Suedois (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Roly Poly (ML 6-1)
C's
# 6 Zelzal (Fr) (ML 20-1)
# 9 Home of The Brave (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 14 Karar (GB) (ML 15-1)
I'd give a slight edge to Ribchester (Ire) over World Approval; but World Approval did get the better draw. I expect these two to engage early. Roly Poly looks like one that will also be prominent early; while Suedois (Fr) could be the one running best late.
Zelzal has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but Zelzal could get a nice stalking trip here. Home of The Brave (Ire) didn't care much for charging down the Santa Anita Hill last year; I expect him to improve with the move to the flats. Karar (GB) is another that seems to get weighed down when there's too much money on his nose; but Karar could improve with firmer footing beneath him.
RACE 10 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 U S Navy Flag (ML 8-1)
# 2 Solomini (ML 6-1)
# 3 Firenze Fire (ML 6-1)
# 5 Free Drop Billy (ML 5-1)
# 6 Good Magic (ML 8-1)
Needless to say, I believe Bolt d'Oro to be a clear standout here, head and shoulders above the rest of the field. But this is still a horse race, meaning anything can happen; so that's why I included a few backup "C" Selections in my play. Solomini, Place behind Bolt d'Oro in the Grade 1 Frontrunner, is probably the best of the backups; but, in my opinion, the battle for second in this contest should prove to be pretty wide open.
RACE 11 - The Breeders' Cup Turf (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Highland Reel (Ire) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Talismanic (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Bullards Alley (ML 15-1)
# 4 Decorated Knight (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 8 Bigger Picture (ML 15-1)
# 9 Seventh Heaven (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 12 Beach Patrol (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Scratch # 5 Ulysses (Ire) (ML 7-2)
With the scratch of Morning Line Favorite Ulysses (Ire), last year's winner of this event, Highland Reel (Ire) looks in my opinion to be the best here. I think the keys for Highland Reel is that he seems to run much better over a firm sod, and I also like that he doesn't need the lead to win; though, as he proved last year, he can certainly take this bunch from gate to wire.
Talismanic (GB) seems to be rounding into top form at just the right time. Bullards Alley was superb last time out in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Wooodbine; a repeat of that effort could get him into the Winner's Circle today.
Decorated Knight (GB) could get a nice tracking trip just behind the leaders. Bigger Picture is another the might get the benefit of a nice tracking trip; while Seventh Heaven (Ire) looks to be among those that will be charging late. Beach Patrol had perhaps the best race of his career last time out in his first try going twelve furlongs; perhaps that wasn't a coincidence.
RACE 12 - The Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 11 Collected (ML 6-1)
B's
# 5 Gun Runner (ML 9-5)
# 8 West Coast (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Arrogate (ML 2-1)
# 6 Mubtaahij (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 7 Churchill (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 10 Pavel (ML 20-1)
In my opinion, Collected is the best horse in this field. Is my opinion correct? We'll know approximately two minutes after they open the gates.
Gun Runner's credentials are well established. Maybe West Coast can just keep getting better.
While the following is an opinion that I'm sure is shared by very few, I personally would have loved to have seen Arrogate compete in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Arrogate definitely has the breeding for grass; and we know that he has no love for this main track. Anyway, maybe the old Arrogate shows up today; but even if he does, I'm not convinced that he can reach the wire in front of Collected.
Mubtaahij (Ire) is the other other other Baffert. Churchill (Ire) might shock the world. Pavel ran the best race of his career last time out, his first time trying ten furlongs.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 11 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,8,10,12 with 11 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,12 with 5,8,11 $42.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,9,14 with 11 with 3 with 11 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 3 with 11 $5.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 11 with 3 with 1,6,7,10 $4.00
Total: $54.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:19 EDT / 3:19 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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