An interesting mix to the final four contests on the Sunday card at Golden Gate. There's a pair of turf routes (at least, as I type this, they're still on the turf) as well as a pair of main track sprints. Two of races are for non-winners of one, while the other two are open claimers with no conditions. So with that as backdrop let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Six Cider (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 6 Seau (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Lion Command (ML 5-2)
Lion Command and Six Cider have taken turns finishing in front of each other in each of their last two starts. I'm going to give the edge today to Six Cider, as I think he'll do better with the yielding surface. Seau, who has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last five races, will be trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he'll handle it fine.
RACE 7 - Clm $40k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Bronze Star (ML 5-1)
# 6 Mal Verde (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 3 Administer (ML 3-1)
Scratch # 2 Marino's Wild Cat (ML 4-1)
Bronze Star, going third off the layoff for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place against more expensive stock the last time that he competed around just one turn, two starts back over the real dirt at Fresno. Mal Verde was victorious the last time that he competed at this class level over this main track, and seems to have been working well for his return after taking the Summer off. Administer, who, like Mal Verde, is trained by Blaine Wright, has been running consistently well throughout 2017.
RACE 8 - Clm $6.25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 American Aristocat (ML 3-1)
# 9 Small Town Cop (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Lucky Views (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mighty Marino (ML 12-1)
# 6 Sizzlin Joe (ML 9-2)
# 7 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 9-2)
C's
None
Scratch # 8 Il Segreto (Fr) (ML 4-1)
American Aristocat and Small Town Cop filled out the Exacta at this class level last time out, crossing under the wire just a head apart. Lucky Views fits well at this class level. Mighty Marino could improve with the return to turf.
Sizzlin Joe could be the one running best late. Abbey Vale (Ire) is taking a significant drop down the class ladder. Seems hard to believe that Abbey Vale won a $50k claiming race at 3-1 odds on the Santa Anita turf just six months ago.
RACE 9 - Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Trojan Time (ML 9-2)
# 3 Jersey Kid (ML 6-1)
B's
# 4 Holly Cat (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Original Intent (ML 5-2)
# 8 Knight Solaire (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 5 Write Me a Song (ML 12-1)
These are juveniles; Trojan Time and Holly Cat are the only two experienced competitors. Trojan Time ran well to take the Show in his debut against cheaper last time out; while Holly Cat drops in for a tag for the first time after showing good early speed in each of her initial two outings. Jersey Kid is out of a mare that has produced five winners from five starters.
Original Intent was working well for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Owner West Point Thoroughbreds right up until that bullet work at Los Alamitos on September 22. The fact that this runner, after a trio of works at Santa Anita, was then shipped upstate and is being offered up for sale in his debut suggests that something is not quite what it was two months ago. Still, the connections must be respected. Knight Solaire, trained by Andy Mathis, is another to be respected based upon the connections, specifically Mathis' success with those running for a tag prior to obtaining their first victory.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2,3,4 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 2,3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,9 with 2,3 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,6 with 2,9 with 6,8 $4.00
Total: $54.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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