11/3/17 Del Mar All Breeders' Cup Pick Four - Preview

It's that time of year, again; it's The Breeders' Cup, the horse player's Super Bowl, the handicapper's World Series.  So before I give any of my selections, allow me please to give you the most important tip of all: HAVE FUN.  These are ours days; so let's enjoy them.  And with that said, let's get to it, as I take a run at an all Breeders' Cup Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 6 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 2 Happily (Ire) (Morning Line 9-2)

B's

# 5 Ultima D (ML 12-1)

# 13 Juliet Capulet (Ire) (ML 12-1)

C's

# 3 Now You're Talking (Ire) (ML 30-1)

# 4 Madeline (Ire) (ML 20-1)

# 10 September (Ire) (ML 6-1)

# 11 Rushing Fall (ML 7-2)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Retro (ML 20-1), and # 16 Goodthingstaketime (ML 30-1)

I was tempted to make Happily (Ire) a big ticket single here; but I didn't like the inside draw for a runner that I expect will be coming from well off the pace; and I can't be sure how well she'll take to a firm surface.  So while I think Happily is clearly the one to beat here, I'm going to be cautious and spread just a bit.

If the Del Mar surface is favoring front runners Friday, Ultima D, trained by Wesley Ward, looks to be the one most likely to benefit.  Juliet Capulet (Ire) looks versatile enough to handle whatever pace scenario comes her way.

Now You're Talking (Ire) looks like one that could make a big move forward covering the additional real estate.  Madeline (Ire) seems to have good tactical speed.  September (Ire) looked much improved in her last outing.  Rushing Fall looks to be best among the North American entrants.

RACE 7 - The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 Mor Spirit (ML 3-1)

# 8 Accelerate (ML 7-2)

B's

# 3 Sharp Azteca (ML 9-2)

C's

# 5 Awesome Slew (ML 12-1)
# 10 Practical Joke (ML 6-1)

Mor Spirit has brought his track with him wherever else he's run in his career thus far; no reason to think that Del Mar will be anything different.  Conversely, Accelerate has already proven that he likes competing over this main track, and he should improve with the turnback in distance.

Sharp Azteca came back to defeat a couple of pretty impressive fields after being soundly defeated by Mor Spirit back in June; perhaps he can turn the tables on his rival Friday.  And if it should all break down up front, Awesome Slew and Practical Joke look to be the ones that will be running best late.

RACE 8 - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Mendelssohn (ML 8-1)

# 7 James Garfield (Ire) (ML 6-1)

B's

# 3 Sands of Mali (Fr) (ML 30-1)

# 6 Masar (Ire) (ML 9-2)

# 8 Voting Control (ML 8-1)

C's

# 5 Beckford (GB) (ML 8-1)
# 12 Hemp Hemp Hurray (ML 8-1)
# 14 Rajasinghe (Ire) (ML 30-1)

Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 15 Tap Daddy (ML 20-1), and # 16 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)

Mendelssohn could be quick enough to ride the rail ahead of the field, and thus avoid any late race traffic issues.  James Garfield (Ire) seems to have moved forward with each start of his career.

If Sands of Mali (Fr) can regain the form that he showed in August, he's going to make that 30-1 Morning Line look awfully silly.  Masar (Ire) took the Show behind the aforementioned Happily (Ire) last time out; and believe me, that is no disgrace.  Voting Control had some issues at the start last time out, and could move forward with a cleaner break.

Beckford (GB) could benefit from the added real estate.  Hemp Hemp Hurray won the speed duel but lost the race in the Grade 2 Summer last time out.  Rajasinghe (Ire) could be well positioned for one big run through the stretch.

RACE 9 - (F) The Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Stellar Wind (ML 5-2)

B's

# 5 Elate (ML 3-1)

# 6 Forever Unbridled (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Abel Tasman (ML 4-1)

# 7 Paradise Woods (ML 9-2)

I'm going with West (Stellar Wind) over East (Elate & Forever Unbridled) here; but really, I can see any one of these three getting the Win today.  Stellar Wind and Forever Unbridled are well proven at this level, and Elate's victory in the Grade 1 Beldame shows that she can compete at this level.  Abel Tasman and Paradise Woods may need another year to reach these heights.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,5,13 with 3,6,8 with 1,3,6,7,8 with 2,5,6 $67.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,4,10,11 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 2 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 5,10 with 1,7 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 5,12,14 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,8 with 1,7 with 4,7 $4.00

Total: $88.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 5:25 EDT / 2:25 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo