11/18/17 Golden Gate Fields Late Pick Four - Preview

The $50k Oakland Stakes, a one turn sprint over the main track, is the featured race on Saturday's card at Golden Gate Fields.  I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.

RACE 6 - Clm $5k B - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 7 Tiz Point (ML 9-5)

B's

# 2 Spot N the Line (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Royal Alexei (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2)
# 8 King's to You (ML 6-1)

This contest is restricted to runners which have either:

1) Not won a race since August 1, 2017; OR
2) Which have never won four races.

So as long as a runner has fewer than four career Wins, he's eligible to run in this race.  If a horse has four career Wins or more, then none of those Wins could have come since the end of July (note that Claiming and Starter Races for $4k or less don't count when computing the Win totals).  For the record, # 3 Southeast Asia (ML 20-1) and # 5 Tremors Code (ML 5-2) are the only two runners in this field with fewer than four career Wins.

Tiz Point, who has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last two contests, both against more expensive stock, looks to be a clear standout here.  Indeed, Tiz Point should probably be a single here, based upon talent and class; but the concern is that Tiz Point hasn't visited the Winner's Circle since January 10, 2015, more than a dozen races ago.  So for that reason, it seems prudent to spread a bit here.

Spot N the Line came through as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out.  Royal Alexei could be speed on the rail.  Tremors Code finished in the Trifecta against classier foes in each of his last two contests, both on real dirt.  King's to You could be the one running best late.

RACE 7 - The Oakland $50k - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Percy's Bluff (ML 4-1)
# 10 Westley (ML 7-2)

B's

# 7 I Will Score (ML 5-2)
# 8 Mach One Rules (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Quick and Silver (ML 12-1)

# 2 Star Student (ML 8-1)

# 5 Outside Nashville (ML 8-1)

Percy's Bluff is seven-for-nine in 2017, and seems capable of handling the rise in class.  Westley has been working well over this main track over the past few weeks.

I Will Score won the Grade 3 Laz Barrera last time out; but last time out was over eighteen months ago.  Mach One Rules had a fine year competing at Emerald Downs, and Mach One Rules has run well in the past over this main track.

Quick and Silver could be speed on the rail.  Star Student won this event last year, with Outside Nashville crossing under the wire less than a length behind.

RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Synthetic (Originally Scheduled for the Turf)

A's

# 5 Spring Heat (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Pequena Maty (ML 15-1)

# 2 Exciting Dixie (ML 20-1)

# 3 Hot in the City (ML 3-1)

# 4 Sea Mistress (ML 6-1)

# 6 Matter of Luck (ML 9-2)

# 7 Bellanza (ML 12-1)

# 8 Blue's Lucky Girl (ML 8-1)

# 9 Motutapu (ML 6-1)

# 10 Lady Chrome (ML 15-1)
# 11 Macalla (ML 5-2)

C's

None

Note that the Also Eligible, # 11 Macalla, will run, despite (as I type this) there being no scratches from the main field.

Spring Heat has finished in the Exacta at this class level in each of his last two starts.  The "B's" are everyone else.  No reason to get cute here; in my opinion this contest is wide open, and moving it off the turf to the main track didn't make it any easier to handicap.  So the "ALL" button it is.

RACE 9 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 3 Sweet River Baines (ML 1-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Twice as Fast (ML 8-1)

# 7 River of Champagne (ML 20-1)
# 9 Kenny Benny (ML 4-1)

Note for future reference that this one is for horses which have not won two races in their career; but with one exemption, as runners get a pass by having one (and just one) win not considered, if one of their two career wins was for $16k or less.  For the record, # 7 River of Champagne (ML 20-1) is the only runner in this field to have visited the winner's circle more than once.

Sweet River Baines looks almost like a ringer in this field, having taken the Place last time out against open (no conditions) $40k Claimers.  Sweet River Baines has finished in the Trifecta in each of his three career starts over this main track.

Twice as Fast could be the speed of the speed here.  River of Champagne is the only entrant here with multiple victories, and could get a nice stalking trip.  Kenny Benny performed well in his synthetic track debut last time out, and followed up that performance with a nice work over this main track.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 7 with 6,10 with 5 with 3 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 6,7,8,10 with ALL with 3 $44.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 6,10 with 5 with 3 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 7 with 1,2,5 with 5 with 3 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,10 with 5 with 4,7,9 $3.00

Total: $53.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:18 EST / 3:18 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo