Gypsy Friday, a four year old filly that we've been following for a little over a year, made her third start off the layoff Friday evening at Del Mar. The event, a Maiden Special Weights restricted to state bred fillies and mares, was contested over eight furlongs of California grass; making it Gypsy Friday's first route of year, after having twice competed around just one turn.
Gypsy Friday (Final Odds 9.80) broke to the front early, and was ahead by over two lengths after six furlongs. According to the chart caller, Gypsy Friday fought back some in the stretch but weakened late, and wound up sixth, a little two and a half lengths behind the winner, Van Dien Avenue (4.00).
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race is available here, while the Daily Racing Form's version of events can be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Saturday, August 24, 2013
8/24/13 Saratoga All-Graded Stakes Pick Four - Results
Back to three-out-of four land.
We saw our "A" contenders win Race 9 (The Test) and Race 10 (The Ballston Spa), as those events went to # 5 Sweet Lulu (1.80*) and # 1 Laughing (2.65), respectively. In retrospect, we probably should have had more confidence in Laughing and just made her a single in The Ballston Spa; for, while her margin of victory was small, her method was just as we predicted; as she wired the field Saturday, just as she had when she won the Grade 1 Diana last month.
However, I feel we made the right move by covering all bases in Race 12 (The Travers), as # 5 Will Take Charge (9.60) just nosed out # 6 Moreno (31.00) at the wire, with # 2 Orb (3.15) and # 8 Palace Malice (2.45) following less than a length behind. As I wrote in the preview, three year olds are still maturing at this time of year, and there's no sure way to know which ones have grown stronger and which ones have just grown older until they compete on the track. Anyway, congrats to Trainer D Wayne Lukas on winning his third Travers Stakes.
As to Race 11 (The King's Bishop), well, we did do a few things right. For example, we were correct to disregard the chances of # 8 Overanalyze (8.00) who wound up a well beaten fifth. We were also correct to predict that this one would go to a deep closer; indeed, the eventual winner, # 3 Capo Bastone (28.25) was tenth, more than fifteen lengths back at the half. But we were dead wrong in having so much faith in the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite, # 2 Forty Tales (2.80*); who, as we feared, got caught in traffic and had to be steadied in the stretch; and then just didn't have enough in the tank when he finally did get clear, finishing fourth, a little over five lengths behind the winner. For the record, our lone "C" selection in this one, # 8 Declan's Warrior (6.00), had nothing, and was eased before the half (though he did walk off).
So there you go; two A's and one C and one we didn't have at all adds up to $45 in the loss column. Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 3 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,009 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We saw our "A" contenders win Race 9 (The Test) and Race 10 (The Ballston Spa), as those events went to # 5 Sweet Lulu (1.80*) and # 1 Laughing (2.65), respectively. In retrospect, we probably should have had more confidence in Laughing and just made her a single in The Ballston Spa; for, while her margin of victory was small, her method was just as we predicted; as she wired the field Saturday, just as she had when she won the Grade 1 Diana last month.
However, I feel we made the right move by covering all bases in Race 12 (The Travers), as # 5 Will Take Charge (9.60) just nosed out # 6 Moreno (31.00) at the wire, with # 2 Orb (3.15) and # 8 Palace Malice (2.45) following less than a length behind. As I wrote in the preview, three year olds are still maturing at this time of year, and there's no sure way to know which ones have grown stronger and which ones have just grown older until they compete on the track. Anyway, congrats to Trainer D Wayne Lukas on winning his third Travers Stakes.
As to Race 11 (The King's Bishop), well, we did do a few things right. For example, we were correct to disregard the chances of # 8 Overanalyze (8.00) who wound up a well beaten fifth. We were also correct to predict that this one would go to a deep closer; indeed, the eventual winner, # 3 Capo Bastone (28.25) was tenth, more than fifteen lengths back at the half. But we were dead wrong in having so much faith in the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite, # 2 Forty Tales (2.80*); who, as we feared, got caught in traffic and had to be steadied in the stretch; and then just didn't have enough in the tank when he finally did get clear, finishing fourth, a little over five lengths behind the winner. For the record, our lone "C" selection in this one, # 8 Declan's Warrior (6.00), had nothing, and was eased before the half (though he did walk off).
So there you go; two A's and one C and one we didn't have at all adds up to $45 in the loss column. Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 1 / 3 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $3,009 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/13 Saratoga All-Graded Stakes Pick Four - The Play
I lost some of my nerve, and decided to toss in a "C" contender in the King's Bishop: Nick Zito's # 8 Declan's Warrior (ML 5-1). I also decided that, while the top three contenders in the Travers look formidable, I will be using all other entrants in that one as C's. My thinking is that three year olds are still maturing, and I don't want to see a longshot grow up before my eyes and blow up my tickets on the last leg. So with all that, these are the Pick Four tickets that I'll be playing today:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents each:
RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 6
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $3.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $6.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $45.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents each:
RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 9
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 6
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $3.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 8
RACE 12: 2, 3, 8
Cost: $6.00
RACE 9: 5, 6
RACE 10: 1, 3
RACE 11: 2
RACE 12: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $45.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/24/13 Saratoga All-Graded Stakes Pick Four - Preview
Moving from west to east, we're going to try our hand today at Saratoga's All-Graded Stakes Pick Four (Races 9 through 12, inclusive), a sequence that ends with the 144th running of The Travers Stakes. But first, for those who may not have already heard, Joel Rosario was injured Friday and will be out six weeks with a broken foot. Rosario's mounts in the Pick Four sequence we're pursuing have been changed as follows:
Race 9 - The Test
# 8 My Happy Face - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Mike E. Smith
Race 10 - The Ballston Spa
# 6 Somali Lemonade - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Luis Saez
Race 11 - The King's Bishop
# 2 Forty Tales - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Julien Leparoux
Race 12 - The Travers
# 2 Orb - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Jose Lezcano
No word yet on how Rosario's scheduled mounts for Sunday at Del Mar, including Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic, will be altered; but here's something to consider:
Holding Glory (Brz) has been cross-entered in Saturday’s Del Mar Handicap and Sunday's Pacific Classic. If Holding Glory runs today, then that means that Holding Glory’s jockey will be without a mount for the Pacific Classic, and therefore available to ride Game On Dude. Holding Glory’s jockey? Game On Dude’s former rider, Chantal Sutherland-Kruse.
Anyway, that's tomorrow's news. Turning back to today at Saratoga:
RACE 9 - (F)The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 5 Sweet Lulu (Morning Line 5-2) is the Hollendorfer trained invader from the Left Coast, who is three-for-three for her career. Sweet Lulu has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; but that was earned in a two-turn route on the polytrack; there’s no guarantee that form will hold in a sprint on a fast dirt track. Note also that this will be Sweet Lulu’s first try against stakes level competition.
# 6 Lighthouse Bay (ML 4-1) took a big step forward in winning the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes over this track last time out. Maybe she did some growing up since winning the Jostle back in June; maybe she really took to the Saratoga surface and surroundings; or maybe it was just a fluke, helped along by a really great trip; we’ll just have to wait and see. Worth noting: Lighthouse Bay has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field.
# 8 My Happy Face (ML 3-1) has taken the Place behind some of the best that this three year old crop of fillies has to offer. My Happy Face was second in the Frizette behind Dreaming of Julia, who would go on to win the Gulfstream Oaks by over twenty lengths; My Happy Face took the Place in the Forward Gal Stakes behind four time Graded Stakes winner Kauai Katie; and, last time out, in the Coaching Club American Oaks, My Happy Face finished in front of everyone except Princess of Sylmar, winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. So while this is a Grade One contest, My Happy Face will be enjoying some class relief.
# 4 I’m Mom’s Favorite (ML 20-1) is an intriguing entry, depending upon how you view her last effort, where she finished last in the Grade 3 Victory Ride. If that result was simply because she couldn’t handle the level of competition, then she will certainly be a non-factor today. But if you decide that her poor effort was a matter of fatigue, then the Tony Dutrow trained I’m Mom’s Favorite certainly deserves some consideration off the freshening, as her two victories prior to the Victory Ride both came in key races, including the Miss Preakness, where she defeated Prioress Stakes winner Lighthouse Bay. Adding to the appeal is that I’m Mom’s Favorite has the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this bunch.
This is a tough one, as this field is quite competitive. Right now, I’m considering using six of the nine entrants in my play; but, as always, that’s subject to change.
RACE 10 - (F)The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 1 Laughing (Ire) (ML 7-2) won the Grade 1 Diana here at the Spa her last time out, and looks to be the one to beat in this one. Laughing has been showing steady improvement in her efforts over the past twelve months, as measured by her steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures. Laughing has shown the ability in her career to win both on the front end and by coming off the pace; but with # 2 Pianist (ML 5-1) the only other pace presence in this one, look for Laughing to repeat her effort in the Diana by wiring the field.
# 3 Miz Ida (ML 8-1) makes her New York debut today, after having taken the Place behind # 6 Somali Lemonade (ML 6-1) her last time out in the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap. So why would I use Miz Ida over the horse she finished behind her last time out? Well, for starters, Miz Ida's effort in that one fits in with her career form; while Somali Lemonade's victory appears to be an outlier in her lifetime stats. Also, Miz Ida's conditioner, Steve Margolis, has a better record when bringing his starters back after a four-to-eight week rest than Somali Lemonade's Trainer, Michael Matz. Finally, Somali Lemonade had Joel Rosario on her back for that last out win; as noted above, Rosario won't be doing any riding today.
Anyway, that's the way I see it; but, bottom line, if Laughing runs the race that I expect her to run, then all of the above comparisons between Miz Ida and Somali Lemonade will be moot; at least as far as our Pick Four play is concerned.
RACE 11 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 5-2), one of three in this field trained by Todd Pletcher, has already beaten most of the serious contenders in this one his last two times out, in the process of winning the Amsterdam and the Woody Stevens. The only horse in this event that rates a class edge over Forty Tales is another Pletcher entry, # 9 Overanalyze (ML 12-1); but Overanalyze, despite his win in the six furlong Grade 2 Futurity last year, seems out of place in this one-turn sprint.
There are a lot of things that can go wrong when backing a closer like Forty Tales: he may not get enough pace to chase; he may not fire his best shot; he may get stuck in traffic in such a large field (there are currently fourteen horses scheduled to go to post in this one). But it just seems to me that Forty Tales rates a clear edge over the rest of this field; and if he runs to the form that he showed in his last two outings, then Forty Tales will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is finished.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Orb (ML 4-1) comes off an eleven week vacation, having not competed since taking the Show in The Belmont; and it seems that the rest has done Orb well, as he's been firing nothing but bullets in his three public workouts in August. Orb has won a pair of Graded Stakes on a fast dirt track; but, based upon Orb's Kentucky Derby victory in the slop, don't be surprised if you see Trainer Shug McGaughey doing a raindance sometime this afternoon.
# 3 Verrazano (ML 2-1) is a perfect six-for-six in his career on fast dirt tracks. Like Orb, Verrazano owns a pair of Grade 1 wins. Johnny Velasquez, who has been on board for all of Verrazano's career starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 5-2) is two-for-two over this Saratoga main track; # 1 Romansh (ML 12-1) is the only other entrant in this field with a win at the Spa. Palace Malice misses by a neck of joining Orb and Verrazano in the two-time Grade 1 Winners Club.
The top contenders in this one are obvious; and, in my opinion, any of the above three could be considered a likely winner. Were I playing the Win pool, I would probably go with Orb based upon price (presuming, of course, that the public bets this one as the Morning Line predicts). For our Pick Four purposes, I see no way around not covering all three. The question then becomes whether or not I want to toss in a few longshots as well; after all, this is Saratoga, the graveyard of favorites.
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good Lord willing, I'll have my Pick Four play up at least thirty minutes prior to that time.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Test
# 8 My Happy Face - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Mike E. Smith
Race 10 - The Ballston Spa
# 6 Somali Lemonade - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Luis Saez
Race 11 - The King's Bishop
# 2 Forty Tales - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Julien Leparoux
Race 12 - The Travers
# 2 Orb - Jockey Joel Rosario changed to Jose Lezcano
No word yet on how Rosario's scheduled mounts for Sunday at Del Mar, including Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic, will be altered; but here's something to consider:
Holding Glory (Brz) has been cross-entered in Saturday’s Del Mar Handicap and Sunday's Pacific Classic. If Holding Glory runs today, then that means that Holding Glory’s jockey will be without a mount for the Pacific Classic, and therefore available to ride Game On Dude. Holding Glory’s jockey? Game On Dude’s former rider, Chantal Sutherland-Kruse.
Anyway, that's tomorrow's news. Turning back to today at Saratoga:
RACE 9 - (F)The Test (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 5 Sweet Lulu (Morning Line 5-2) is the Hollendorfer trained invader from the Left Coast, who is three-for-three for her career. Sweet Lulu has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field; but that was earned in a two-turn route on the polytrack; there’s no guarantee that form will hold in a sprint on a fast dirt track. Note also that this will be Sweet Lulu’s first try against stakes level competition.
# 6 Lighthouse Bay (ML 4-1) took a big step forward in winning the Grade 1 Prioress Stakes over this track last time out. Maybe she did some growing up since winning the Jostle back in June; maybe she really took to the Saratoga surface and surroundings; or maybe it was just a fluke, helped along by a really great trip; we’ll just have to wait and see. Worth noting: Lighthouse Bay has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field.
# 8 My Happy Face (ML 3-1) has taken the Place behind some of the best that this three year old crop of fillies has to offer. My Happy Face was second in the Frizette behind Dreaming of Julia, who would go on to win the Gulfstream Oaks by over twenty lengths; My Happy Face took the Place in the Forward Gal Stakes behind four time Graded Stakes winner Kauai Katie; and, last time out, in the Coaching Club American Oaks, My Happy Face finished in front of everyone except Princess of Sylmar, winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama Stakes. So while this is a Grade One contest, My Happy Face will be enjoying some class relief.
# 4 I’m Mom’s Favorite (ML 20-1) is an intriguing entry, depending upon how you view her last effort, where she finished last in the Grade 3 Victory Ride. If that result was simply because she couldn’t handle the level of competition, then she will certainly be a non-factor today. But if you decide that her poor effort was a matter of fatigue, then the Tony Dutrow trained I’m Mom’s Favorite certainly deserves some consideration off the freshening, as her two victories prior to the Victory Ride both came in key races, including the Miss Preakness, where she defeated Prioress Stakes winner Lighthouse Bay. Adding to the appeal is that I’m Mom’s Favorite has the second best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this bunch.
This is a tough one, as this field is quite competitive. Right now, I’m considering using six of the nine entrants in my play; but, as always, that’s subject to change.
RACE 10 - (F)The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 1 Laughing (Ire) (ML 7-2) won the Grade 1 Diana here at the Spa her last time out, and looks to be the one to beat in this one. Laughing has been showing steady improvement in her efforts over the past twelve months, as measured by her steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures. Laughing has shown the ability in her career to win both on the front end and by coming off the pace; but with # 2 Pianist (ML 5-1) the only other pace presence in this one, look for Laughing to repeat her effort in the Diana by wiring the field.
# 3 Miz Ida (ML 8-1) makes her New York debut today, after having taken the Place behind # 6 Somali Lemonade (ML 6-1) her last time out in the Grade 3 Dr James Penny Memorial Handicap. So why would I use Miz Ida over the horse she finished behind her last time out? Well, for starters, Miz Ida's effort in that one fits in with her career form; while Somali Lemonade's victory appears to be an outlier in her lifetime stats. Also, Miz Ida's conditioner, Steve Margolis, has a better record when bringing his starters back after a four-to-eight week rest than Somali Lemonade's Trainer, Michael Matz. Finally, Somali Lemonade had Joel Rosario on her back for that last out win; as noted above, Rosario won't be doing any riding today.
Anyway, that's the way I see it; but, bottom line, if Laughing runs the race that I expect her to run, then all of the above comparisons between Miz Ida and Somali Lemonade will be moot; at least as far as our Pick Four play is concerned.
RACE 11 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Forty Tales (ML 5-2), one of three in this field trained by Todd Pletcher, has already beaten most of the serious contenders in this one his last two times out, in the process of winning the Amsterdam and the Woody Stevens. The only horse in this event that rates a class edge over Forty Tales is another Pletcher entry, # 9 Overanalyze (ML 12-1); but Overanalyze, despite his win in the six furlong Grade 2 Futurity last year, seems out of place in this one-turn sprint.
There are a lot of things that can go wrong when backing a closer like Forty Tales: he may not get enough pace to chase; he may not fire his best shot; he may get stuck in traffic in such a large field (there are currently fourteen horses scheduled to go to post in this one). But it just seems to me that Forty Tales rates a clear edge over the rest of this field; and if he runs to the form that he showed in his last two outings, then Forty Tales will be the one getting his picture taken when this one is finished.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Orb (ML 4-1) comes off an eleven week vacation, having not competed since taking the Show in The Belmont; and it seems that the rest has done Orb well, as he's been firing nothing but bullets in his three public workouts in August. Orb has won a pair of Graded Stakes on a fast dirt track; but, based upon Orb's Kentucky Derby victory in the slop, don't be surprised if you see Trainer Shug McGaughey doing a raindance sometime this afternoon.
# 3 Verrazano (ML 2-1) is a perfect six-for-six in his career on fast dirt tracks. Like Orb, Verrazano owns a pair of Grade 1 wins. Johnny Velasquez, who has been on board for all of Verrazano's career starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Palace Malice (ML 5-2) is two-for-two over this Saratoga main track; # 1 Romansh (ML 12-1) is the only other entrant in this field with a win at the Spa. Palace Malice misses by a neck of joining Orb and Verrazano in the two-time Grade 1 Winners Club.
The top contenders in this one are obvious; and, in my opinion, any of the above three could be considered a likely winner. Were I playing the Win pool, I would probably go with Orb based upon price (presuming, of course, that the public bets this one as the Morning Line predicts). For our Pick Four purposes, I see no way around not covering all three. The question then becomes whether or not I want to toss in a few longshots as well; after all, this is Saratoga, the graveyard of favorites.
Post Time for Race 9 is 4:05 EDT / 1:05 PDT. Good Lord willing, I'll have my Pick Four play up at least thirty minutes prior to that time.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 18, 2013
8/18/13 Del Mar Pick Five - Results
So it turns out a little change of pace was just what the doctor ordered; as we cash in on the Pick Five at Del Mar Sunday, and turn a nice little profit for ourselves.
Race 1 was a chalk it up affair, as our lone "A" selection, # 2 Boller Bomb (Final Odds 0.80*) won clear. Incidentally, Boller Bomb gets a change of barn to go along with her victory, as she was claimed for $40k by Trainer Julio Canani.
Race 2 also went to one of our "A" selections, as # 5 Keyboard Courage (1.60) crossed the wire three and three quarter lengths ahead of the rest of the field. For the record, Keyboard Courage also gets a new home, as Trainer Henry Dominguez makes the $12.5k purchase.
Race 3 continued the streak of "A" contender victories, as # 7 Big Wags (3.00) wins the three-way photo over our other two "A" contenders, # 2 Fear the Beard (2.10*) and # 3 Rock This Way (4.00).
Race 4 was the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap; and any qualms we may have had about singling # 1 Reneesgotzip (0.30*) were quickly put to rest, as the four year old daughter of City Zip grabbed the early lead and never looked back, setting a new track record of 1:14.48 for the six and a half furlongs distance.
So with "A" selections winning the first four legs of the Pick Five, we were alive to six horses going into Race 5; our four "A" selections, along with our two "C" contenders.
The one dollar Will Pays for our four "A" selections were:
# 4 Somethings Unusual $281.30
# 7 Tom’s Tribute $142.00
# 9 My Samurai Warrior $653.40
# 10 Te Rapa $1101.30
While the fifty cent Will Pays for our two "C" contenders were:
# 1 Kid Dreams $165.00
# 8 Mambo Man $359.35
We had no coverage on the following four horses in Race 5:
# 2 Trucial State (61.60)
# 3 Anythingscookin (45.20)
# 5 Motown Men (14.30)
# 6 U S Citizen (11.20)
As Race 5 unfolded, # 10 Te Rapa (20.90), the selection that would give us the largest profit, made a strong run, grabbing the lead at the top of the stretch. But Te Rapa couldn't hold on in the stretch, and wound up third; as # 1 Kid Dreams (3.20) crossed the wire first, a length and a quarter in front of # 7 Tom's Tribute (1.50*).
So we had it; a Pick Five with three of the five legs being won by non-favorites. As mentioned above, the correct winning sequence of 2 / 5 / 7 / 1 / 1 was worth $165 for a fifty cent wager. As our total investment was $46, our net profit on our play comes to $119. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 1 was a chalk it up affair, as our lone "A" selection, # 2 Boller Bomb (Final Odds 0.80*) won clear. Incidentally, Boller Bomb gets a change of barn to go along with her victory, as she was claimed for $40k by Trainer Julio Canani.
Race 2 also went to one of our "A" selections, as # 5 Keyboard Courage (1.60) crossed the wire three and three quarter lengths ahead of the rest of the field. For the record, Keyboard Courage also gets a new home, as Trainer Henry Dominguez makes the $12.5k purchase.
Race 3 continued the streak of "A" contender victories, as # 7 Big Wags (3.00) wins the three-way photo over our other two "A" contenders, # 2 Fear the Beard (2.10*) and # 3 Rock This Way (4.00).
Race 4 was the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap; and any qualms we may have had about singling # 1 Reneesgotzip (0.30*) were quickly put to rest, as the four year old daughter of City Zip grabbed the early lead and never looked back, setting a new track record of 1:14.48 for the six and a half furlongs distance.
So with "A" selections winning the first four legs of the Pick Five, we were alive to six horses going into Race 5; our four "A" selections, along with our two "C" contenders.
The one dollar Will Pays for our four "A" selections were:
# 4 Somethings Unusual $281.30
# 7 Tom’s Tribute $142.00
# 9 My Samurai Warrior $653.40
# 10 Te Rapa $1101.30
While the fifty cent Will Pays for our two "C" contenders were:
# 1 Kid Dreams $165.00
# 8 Mambo Man $359.35
We had no coverage on the following four horses in Race 5:
# 2 Trucial State (61.60)
# 3 Anythingscookin (45.20)
# 5 Motown Men (14.30)
# 6 U S Citizen (11.20)
As Race 5 unfolded, # 10 Te Rapa (20.90), the selection that would give us the largest profit, made a strong run, grabbing the lead at the top of the stretch. But Te Rapa couldn't hold on in the stretch, and wound up third; as # 1 Kid Dreams (3.20) crossed the wire first, a length and a quarter in front of # 7 Tom's Tribute (1.50*).
So we had it; a Pick Five with three of the five legs being won by non-favorites. As mentioned above, the correct winning sequence of 2 / 5 / 7 / 1 / 1 was worth $165 for a fifty cent wager. As our total investment was $46, our net profit on our play comes to $119. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/18/13 Del Mar Pick Five - The Play
Analysis of the contenders for each leg can be found in the prior post. I saw no way to keep this under budget without singling Reneesgotzip; so if she goes down, all tickets go down with her. With that said, here's the way that I'll be playing today's Pick Five at Del Mar:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $24.00
Play these for fifty cents each:
RACE 1: 5
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 6
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $4.00
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 1, 8
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $46.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 2:05 PDT / 5:05 EDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $24.00
Play these for fifty cents each:
RACE 1: 5
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 6
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 4, 7, 9, 10
Cost: $4.00
RACE 1: 2
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 2, 3, 7
RACE 4: 1
RACE 5: 1, 8
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $46.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 2:05 PDT / 5:05 EDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/18/13 Del Mar Pick FIve - Preview
Going for a little change of pace today; rather than playing the Late Pick Four as usual, I decided to handicap the Pick Five; a decision strongly influenced by Del Mar's decision to card three maiden events among today's final four races.
RACE 1 (F)Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Boller Bomb (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level last time out over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course, losing by less than a length (note that the Show horse from that contest went on to win her next time out). Boller Bomb was claimed out of that race by Trainer Peter Miller, who gets 17% winners from entries first off the claim. Boller Bomb has shown the ability to rate, which should serve her well against this field. Garrett Gomez gets the mount today, which adds to the appeal.
# 4 Upward Spiral (GB) (ML 3-1) runs for the first time today with a price tag on her head. Her last time out was her first time with blinkers and first time around two turns; the experience from that should be a plus. There’s a good amount of early speed in this one; but Upward Spiral could be quickest of the lot and smoke the grass before the others can get rolling. EDIT - Upward Spiral has been scratched.
# 5 Holiday N Newport (ML 15-1) is a Maiden trying winners; in open company, no less. But she’s routing and turfing for the first time; and she possesses the best Tomlinson Distance/Turf Rating in the field; those facts in unison make her an intriguing proposition. Note that Trainer Michael Pender does quite well with horses second off a layoff, as well as those trying the grass for the first time.
# 6 Buckingham Bull (ML 3-1) makes her first start for Trainer Vladimir Cerin, who gets 23% winners when sending out new stock. Buckingham Bull’s form looks like that of a need to lead type, and I don’t see her as being the one in front in the early going against this group.
RACE 2 - Clm $12.5 - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Royal Meridian (ML 2-1) drops down in class after just missing by a nose against more expensive his last time out. Royal Meridian has won half of his six career starts on synthetic surfaces, and has been in the Exacta all three times that he’s competed over the Del Mar main track. This will be Royal Meridian’s first start for Trainer Doug O’Neill.
# 5 Keyboard Courage (ML 5-2) is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Michael Pender, who wins 13% of the time with such. Keyboard Courage makes a move up the class ladder, though his back class shows that he can compete against these. Keyboard Courage has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in five of his last six races that surpass par for this level of competition. Note that the one time in his career that Keyboard Courage has tried this distance he won clear; it’s also worth noting that his Tomlinson Distance Rating far surpasses that of the other entrants in this event.
RACE 3 - Clm $12.5 - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Fear the Beard (ML 4-1) has been competitive in three of his four races this year, all of which were against more expensive; but he’s yet to find the Winner’s Circle since coming back from his sixteen month layoff. Fear the Beard does his best running late; and there may not be enough pace in this one for him to chase. Still, the class drop may provide the spark that he needs; and the fact that Bejarano remains in the saddle must be viewed as a positive.
# 3 Rock This Way (ML 4-1) disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing next-to-last in his first start off the claim for Trainer Robert Hess. But that was against more expensive; Rock This Way did win at the level two back, wiring the field at today’s distance with Joe Talamo in the saddle; Talamo will be on board again today. Note that Rock This Way has been in the Trifecta in four of his five career starts over the Del Mar main track.
# 6 Winsome Charm (ML 7-2) has finished off the board in all three of his starts over the Del Mar main track. On the other hand, Winsome Charm is making a big drop down the class ladder today; and the early speed that he flashed against more expensive in his prior two starts shows that this eight year old still has something left in the tank.
# 7 Big Wags (ML 5-2) won at this level back in June at this distance over the Hollywood Park main track. Big Wags was claimed away from Trainer Bill Spawr in that one; note that Spawr claimed this six year old gelding right back in his next start (paying an additional $3.5k for the privilege). Also worth noting is that the only race in his last seven outings in which Big Wags failed to earn a Beyer of at least 77 was also the only race in which Spawr was not his conditioner.
RACE 4 - (F)The Rancho Bernardo Handicap (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field to have ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer, and she’s done so three times in her career (twice over this Del Mar main track). She’s just a nose and a neck away from having two Grade 1 wins on her resume, having lost by those distances in the Santa Anita Oaks and the La Brea Stakes, respectively. Reneesgotzip is a perfect five-for-five over synthetic surfaces, which includes her two wins in two tries at Del Mar. She prefers to run on the front end, but she did show the ability to rate while winning the Skillful Joy Stakes back in December; that ability to come off the pace may come in handy today, as this field is full of front runners.
# 2 Winding Way (ML 5-1) was the victor in last year’s running of this event, which marked her third win in three career starts. Winding Way has had three starts since that contest, and has finished out of the money in all three. Coincidentally, Winding Way’s post race urine test after winning the prep race prior to last year’s Rancho Bernardo revealed that she had excessive levels of testosterone in her system; a finding that led to Winding Way being disqualified from purse money in that event, and to Trainer Carla Gaines being given the thirty day suspension that she is currently serving.
# 4 Curvy Cat (ML 8-1) is the only horse in this contest that I can confidently state won’t be on the early lead today. Being the lone certified late charger in this event should prove beneficial. Expect Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (who has a positive ROI in Graded Stakes events over the past few years) to have Curvy Cat ready to fire.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Somethings Unusual (ML 9-2) is one of five in this contest that exits Race 7 on this turf course July 27, an event that saw the first five finishers within a length of the each other at the wire. Somethings Unusual has a late running style that should be a plus against this field; the jockey switch to Bejarano should also be viewed as a plus.
# 7 Tom’s Tribute (ML 5-2) was the Place horse in that July 27 affair; that was Tom’s Tribute’s first try around two turns, and his first time on the grass. Note also the rider switch to Julien Leparoux, who has been doing quite well for himself this meet.
# 9 My Samurai Warrior (ML 8-1) was the fourth place finisher in the above referenced July 27 contest. My Samurai Warrior has shown steadily increasing Beyers over his fast few races, and has previously demonstrated the ability to compete at this level.
# 10 Te Rapa (ML 8-1) is the horse for the course in this contest, having won three times in five tries over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. This is a step up the class ladder for Te Rapa, but the back class is there; and the Beyers Te Rapa has earned in his prior two starts are competitive at this level.
# 12 Stoney Fleece (ML 8-1) is on the Also Eligible list; so he may not draw in. But if he does run today, then this prior stakes winner must be respected, if for no other reason than that he has John Sadler as his trainer. Stoney Fleece, should he compete today, would also be one of only two horses in this field with a prior win over this turf course. EDIT - Stoney Fleece does not draw in; scratch Stoney Fleece.
This race is wide open, as you would expect from a good turf contest; and, like all good turf contests, expect it to come down to who gets the best trip. The goal here is to find the right number of contenders to give us the coverage we need without going over budget.
Post Time for Race 1 is 2:05 PDT / 5:05 EDT. I expect to have my play up here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 1 (F)Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Boller Bomb (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level last time out over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course, losing by less than a length (note that the Show horse from that contest went on to win her next time out). Boller Bomb was claimed out of that race by Trainer Peter Miller, who gets 17% winners from entries first off the claim. Boller Bomb has shown the ability to rate, which should serve her well against this field. Garrett Gomez gets the mount today, which adds to the appeal.
# 4 Upward Spiral (GB) (ML 3-1) runs for the first time today with a price tag on her head. Her last time out was her first time with blinkers and first time around two turns; the experience from that should be a plus. There’s a good amount of early speed in this one; but Upward Spiral could be quickest of the lot and smoke the grass before the others can get rolling. EDIT - Upward Spiral has been scratched.
# 5 Holiday N Newport (ML 15-1) is a Maiden trying winners; in open company, no less. But she’s routing and turfing for the first time; and she possesses the best Tomlinson Distance/Turf Rating in the field; those facts in unison make her an intriguing proposition. Note that Trainer Michael Pender does quite well with horses second off a layoff, as well as those trying the grass for the first time.
# 6 Buckingham Bull (ML 3-1) makes her first start for Trainer Vladimir Cerin, who gets 23% winners when sending out new stock. Buckingham Bull’s form looks like that of a need to lead type, and I don’t see her as being the one in front in the early going against this group.
RACE 2 - Clm $12.5 - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Royal Meridian (ML 2-1) drops down in class after just missing by a nose against more expensive his last time out. Royal Meridian has won half of his six career starts on synthetic surfaces, and has been in the Exacta all three times that he’s competed over the Del Mar main track. This will be Royal Meridian’s first start for Trainer Doug O’Neill.
# 5 Keyboard Courage (ML 5-2) is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Michael Pender, who wins 13% of the time with such. Keyboard Courage makes a move up the class ladder, though his back class shows that he can compete against these. Keyboard Courage has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in five of his last six races that surpass par for this level of competition. Note that the one time in his career that Keyboard Courage has tried this distance he won clear; it’s also worth noting that his Tomlinson Distance Rating far surpasses that of the other entrants in this event.
RACE 3 - Clm $12.5 - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Fear the Beard (ML 4-1) has been competitive in three of his four races this year, all of which were against more expensive; but he’s yet to find the Winner’s Circle since coming back from his sixteen month layoff. Fear the Beard does his best running late; and there may not be enough pace in this one for him to chase. Still, the class drop may provide the spark that he needs; and the fact that Bejarano remains in the saddle must be viewed as a positive.
# 3 Rock This Way (ML 4-1) disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing next-to-last in his first start off the claim for Trainer Robert Hess. But that was against more expensive; Rock This Way did win at the level two back, wiring the field at today’s distance with Joe Talamo in the saddle; Talamo will be on board again today. Note that Rock This Way has been in the Trifecta in four of his five career starts over the Del Mar main track.
# 6 Winsome Charm (ML 7-2) has finished off the board in all three of his starts over the Del Mar main track. On the other hand, Winsome Charm is making a big drop down the class ladder today; and the early speed that he flashed against more expensive in his prior two starts shows that this eight year old still has something left in the tank.
# 7 Big Wags (ML 5-2) won at this level back in June at this distance over the Hollywood Park main track. Big Wags was claimed away from Trainer Bill Spawr in that one; note that Spawr claimed this six year old gelding right back in his next start (paying an additional $3.5k for the privilege). Also worth noting is that the only race in his last seven outings in which Big Wags failed to earn a Beyer of at least 77 was also the only race in which Spawr was not his conditioner.
RACE 4 - (F)The Rancho Bernardo Handicap (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field to have ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer, and she’s done so three times in her career (twice over this Del Mar main track). She’s just a nose and a neck away from having two Grade 1 wins on her resume, having lost by those distances in the Santa Anita Oaks and the La Brea Stakes, respectively. Reneesgotzip is a perfect five-for-five over synthetic surfaces, which includes her two wins in two tries at Del Mar. She prefers to run on the front end, but she did show the ability to rate while winning the Skillful Joy Stakes back in December; that ability to come off the pace may come in handy today, as this field is full of front runners.
# 2 Winding Way (ML 5-1) was the victor in last year’s running of this event, which marked her third win in three career starts. Winding Way has had three starts since that contest, and has finished out of the money in all three. Coincidentally, Winding Way’s post race urine test after winning the prep race prior to last year’s Rancho Bernardo revealed that she had excessive levels of testosterone in her system; a finding that led to Winding Way being disqualified from purse money in that event, and to Trainer Carla Gaines being given the thirty day suspension that she is currently serving.
# 4 Curvy Cat (ML 8-1) is the only horse in this contest that I can confidently state won’t be on the early lead today. Being the lone certified late charger in this event should prove beneficial. Expect Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (who has a positive ROI in Graded Stakes events over the past few years) to have Curvy Cat ready to fire.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Somethings Unusual (ML 9-2) is one of five in this contest that exits Race 7 on this turf course July 27, an event that saw the first five finishers within a length of the each other at the wire. Somethings Unusual has a late running style that should be a plus against this field; the jockey switch to Bejarano should also be viewed as a plus.
# 7 Tom’s Tribute (ML 5-2) was the Place horse in that July 27 affair; that was Tom’s Tribute’s first try around two turns, and his first time on the grass. Note also the rider switch to Julien Leparoux, who has been doing quite well for himself this meet.
# 9 My Samurai Warrior (ML 8-1) was the fourth place finisher in the above referenced July 27 contest. My Samurai Warrior has shown steadily increasing Beyers over his fast few races, and has previously demonstrated the ability to compete at this level.
# 10 Te Rapa (ML 8-1) is the horse for the course in this contest, having won three times in five tries over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. This is a step up the class ladder for Te Rapa, but the back class is there; and the Beyers Te Rapa has earned in his prior two starts are competitive at this level.
# 12 Stoney Fleece (ML 8-1) is on the Also Eligible list; so he may not draw in. But if he does run today, then this prior stakes winner must be respected, if for no other reason than that he has John Sadler as his trainer. Stoney Fleece, should he compete today, would also be one of only two horses in this field with a prior win over this turf course. EDIT - Stoney Fleece does not draw in; scratch Stoney Fleece.
This race is wide open, as you would expect from a good turf contest; and, like all good turf contests, expect it to come down to who gets the best trip. The goal here is to find the right number of contenders to give us the coverage we need without going over budget.
Post Time for Race 1 is 2:05 PDT / 5:05 EDT. I expect to have my play up here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 17, 2013
8/17/13 SAR R3 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Pete and David is the longshot claim by Trainer Bruce Levine that we've been following since he was scooped up for $20k out of this race in June, a contest in which Pete in David went to post at Final Odds of 13.70 and finished seventh.
Saturday, Pete and David made his second start for the Levine barn, running with the same $20k price tag on his head for which he was purchased, albeit this time in a race restricted to New York breds.
Quoting from the Equibase chart of the race, Pete and David (Final Odds 6.90) "broke in at the start, then was sent hard". But despite being sent hard, Pete and David couldn't make the lead, and eventually faded in the stretch, finishing fifth, eight lengths behind the winner, G W's Hammer (4.80).
Pete and David's fifth place finish was worth $1,110.00 in purse money; bringing his total purse winnings for the Levine barn to $1,310.00. So Pete and David still has a ways to go before he earns back the twenty grand for which he was bought.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, Pete and David made his second start for the Levine barn, running with the same $20k price tag on his head for which he was purchased, albeit this time in a race restricted to New York breds.
Quoting from the Equibase chart of the race, Pete and David (Final Odds 6.90) "broke in at the start, then was sent hard". But despite being sent hard, Pete and David couldn't make the lead, and eventually faded in the stretch, finishing fifth, eight lengths behind the winner, G W's Hammer (4.80).
Pete and David's fifth place finish was worth $1,110.00 in purse money; bringing his total purse winnings for the Levine barn to $1,310.00. So Pete and David still has a ways to go before he earns back the twenty grand for which he was bought.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
8/14/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Hey, lookit that! We've got a ticket with four winners! Too bad one of them managed to get disqualified.
The Pick Four kicked off with one of our "C" contenders, # 4 Tiz a Kiss (Final Odds 2.60*) crossing the wire first in Race 5 at Del Mar. Race 6 also went to the Post Time Favorite, our sole "A" selection in the contest, # 8 Unbridled Giant (2.10*); which simultaneously justified our use of Unbridled Giant as our single "A", while mocking our use of two "C's" in that race as backup.
Let's skip the third leg for now.
Race 8, the finale, went to # 8 Dolphin Shorts (6.60), one of the three "A" selections that we used in that contest.
So, with the above results, we have the following ticket:
RACE 5: 3, 4, 9
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $9.00
with winners in Races 5, 6, and 8; and. with two horses covered in Race 7, I have to admit, we look pretty good.
And we looked even better when one of our two selections, # 4 Distinctiv Passion (2.60*) crossed the wire ahead of the rest of the field. But Distinctiv Passion bumped with # 5 Strong Wind (4.70) late in the stretch, which caused Distinctiv Passion to be disqualified and placed behind Strong Wind. Which would have been fine; indeed, preferable, since Strong Wind was our other selection in this event, at higher odds.
There was just one problem. Strong Wind didn't hold the Place.
After being bumped near the wire by Distinctiv Passion, Jockey Gary Stevens stood up in the saddle, a move that allowed # 1 Sirocco Strike (7.20) to cross the wire a nose in front of Strong Wind. Thus, after the smoke cleared from the Stewards' Inquiry, Sirocco Strike took the Place and got the Win, leaving us with a rather bad taste in our mouth, to go along with a ticket that would wind up with three out of four winners, and a net loss on our play of $43.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So when all was said and done, the correct Pick Four sequence at Del Mar Wednesday was 4 / 8 / 1 / 8 . Those who played it were rewarded with a payout of $351.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The Pick Four kicked off with one of our "C" contenders, # 4 Tiz a Kiss (Final Odds 2.60*) crossing the wire first in Race 5 at Del Mar. Race 6 also went to the Post Time Favorite, our sole "A" selection in the contest, # 8 Unbridled Giant (2.10*); which simultaneously justified our use of Unbridled Giant as our single "A", while mocking our use of two "C's" in that race as backup.
Let's skip the third leg for now.
Race 8, the finale, went to # 8 Dolphin Shorts (6.60), one of the three "A" selections that we used in that contest.
So, with the above results, we have the following ticket:
RACE 5: 3, 4, 9
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $9.00
with winners in Races 5, 6, and 8; and. with two horses covered in Race 7, I have to admit, we look pretty good.
And we looked even better when one of our two selections, # 4 Distinctiv Passion (2.60*) crossed the wire ahead of the rest of the field. But Distinctiv Passion bumped with # 5 Strong Wind (4.70) late in the stretch, which caused Distinctiv Passion to be disqualified and placed behind Strong Wind. Which would have been fine; indeed, preferable, since Strong Wind was our other selection in this event, at higher odds.
There was just one problem. Strong Wind didn't hold the Place.
After being bumped near the wire by Distinctiv Passion, Jockey Gary Stevens stood up in the saddle, a move that allowed # 1 Sirocco Strike (7.20) to cross the wire a nose in front of Strong Wind. Thus, after the smoke cleared from the Stewards' Inquiry, Sirocco Strike took the Place and got the Win, leaving us with a rather bad taste in our mouth, to go along with a ticket that would wind up with three out of four winners, and a net loss on our play of $43.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So when all was said and done, the correct Pick Four sequence at Del Mar Wednesday was 4 / 8 / 1 / 8 . Those who played it were rewarded with a payout of $351.85 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/14/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
If today is Wednesday, then there must be a Pick Six carryover at Del Mar! Anyway, I was able to take time away from the office today; so why not have a little middle-of-the-week fun with a Pick Four.
RACE 5 [S](F)MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Hot and Pleasing (Morning Line 10-1) is, like many in this field, making the move from turf to synthetic. If her form holds, Hot and Pleasing's Beyer Speed Figures suggests she can win at this level.
# 4 Tiz a Kiss (ML 5-2) is trained by John Sadler and ridden by Julien Leparoux, a combination that has been doing quite well this meet. Tiz a Kiss is going two sprints to a route, a move with which Sadler seems to do quite well.
# 6 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) is another moving off the grass to the Del Mar plastic. Coconut Cream Pie has been in the money in five of her six career starts, taking the Place in each of the last three. Consistent but disappointing; Coconut Cream Pie has failed as the Post Time Favorite in half her career starts.
# 7 Keldy (ML 5-1) flashed some early speed last time out, while taking the Show behind Coconut Cream Pie. Trainer Dan Hendricks does quite well with the grass-to-synthetic move. Jockey Gary Stevens gets the mount today.
# 8 Dow Diva (ML 15-1) took a step back last time out, as she ran with blinkers off in what appears to have been an attempt to get her to rate under Jockey Kevin Krigger. The blinkers are back on today, and Edwin Maldonado is back in the saddle.
# 9 Sidepocket Run (ML 7-2) just missed last time with a late run; but, in addition to being on the grass, that was also with an extra half-furlong to work with. She's shown that she can compete at this level; the question now is can she win.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
# 8 Unbridled Giant (ML 5-2) moves from the grass onto the polytrack; a move with which Trainer Bob Baffert does not succeed as often as one would expect. Unbridled Giant gets some strong class relief today, dropping down from first level allowance company while running for a tag for the first time in his career.
# 9 Alydidit (ML 10-1) runs with a price tag for the first time since breaking his maiden back on New Year's Day. Alydidit prefers to run late; which may prove to be an advantage in a field that holds a lot of speed.
RACE 7 - The Green Flash Handicap - Five Furlongs Turf
# 4 Distinctiv Passion (ML 5-2) will try to be the speed of the speed today and smoke the grass much as he did in his turf debut over this course his last time out. Distinctiv Passion owns a prior stakes victory in the San Pedro over the Santa Anita Park dirt.
# 5 Strong Wind (ML 6-1) is another that won his turf debut over this course his last time out, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Gary Stevens, who was on board for that trip, gets the ride again today.
# 7 Boat Trip (ML 7-2) has a late running style that may prove problematic if traffic gets tight on this narrow course. Victor Espinoza gets the ride, his first time aboard this four year old colt.
# 8 Wiredfortwotwenty (ML 7-2) has shown the ability to win at this level; albeit primarily on dirt. Look for him to be battling Distinctiv Passion on the front end in the early going.
RACE 8 (F)Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Frannie'sspirittoo (ML 5-1) has been showing steady improvement, taking the Show at this level over this course at this distance last time out.
# 3 Janes Ship (ML 5-1) drops down from MSW company in an attempt to ship and win from New Mexico.
# 8 Dolphin Shorts (ML 5-1) makes her second career start for the Mike Mitchell; Mitchell gets 20% winners from runners making their second career start in Maiden Claiming events.
# 10 Party Bus (ML 7-2) is a first time Garrett Gomez in the saddle. Party Bus missed by two at this level last time out, after taking the Show against more expensive the trip prior to that.
# 11 Rockin' Hard Gals (9-2) took the Place at this level her last time out, posting the best last out Beyer in this field.
No time for a separate post; so let's post our play here:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 5: 3, 4, 9
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 6, 9
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $12.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 7, 8
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 3, 10
Cost: $4.00
TOTAL COST: $43.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 5 [S](F)MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Hot and Pleasing (Morning Line 10-1) is, like many in this field, making the move from turf to synthetic. If her form holds, Hot and Pleasing's Beyer Speed Figures suggests she can win at this level.
# 4 Tiz a Kiss (ML 5-2) is trained by John Sadler and ridden by Julien Leparoux, a combination that has been doing quite well this meet. Tiz a Kiss is going two sprints to a route, a move with which Sadler seems to do quite well.
# 6 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) is another moving off the grass to the Del Mar plastic. Coconut Cream Pie has been in the money in five of her six career starts, taking the Place in each of the last three. Consistent but disappointing; Coconut Cream Pie has failed as the Post Time Favorite in half her career starts.
# 7 Keldy (ML 5-1) flashed some early speed last time out, while taking the Show behind Coconut Cream Pie. Trainer Dan Hendricks does quite well with the grass-to-synthetic move. Jockey Gary Stevens gets the mount today.
# 8 Dow Diva (ML 15-1) took a step back last time out, as she ran with blinkers off in what appears to have been an attempt to get her to rate under Jockey Kevin Krigger. The blinkers are back on today, and Edwin Maldonado is back in the saddle.
# 9 Sidepocket Run (ML 7-2) just missed last time with a late run; but, in addition to being on the grass, that was also with an extra half-furlong to work with. She's shown that she can compete at this level; the question now is can she win.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k N2L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
# 8 Unbridled Giant (ML 5-2) moves from the grass onto the polytrack; a move with which Trainer Bob Baffert does not succeed as often as one would expect. Unbridled Giant gets some strong class relief today, dropping down from first level allowance company while running for a tag for the first time in his career.
# 9 Alydidit (ML 10-1) runs with a price tag for the first time since breaking his maiden back on New Year's Day. Alydidit prefers to run late; which may prove to be an advantage in a field that holds a lot of speed.
RACE 7 - The Green Flash Handicap - Five Furlongs Turf
# 4 Distinctiv Passion (ML 5-2) will try to be the speed of the speed today and smoke the grass much as he did in his turf debut over this course his last time out. Distinctiv Passion owns a prior stakes victory in the San Pedro over the Santa Anita Park dirt.
# 5 Strong Wind (ML 6-1) is another that won his turf debut over this course his last time out, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Gary Stevens, who was on board for that trip, gets the ride again today.
# 7 Boat Trip (ML 7-2) has a late running style that may prove problematic if traffic gets tight on this narrow course. Victor Espinoza gets the ride, his first time aboard this four year old colt.
# 8 Wiredfortwotwenty (ML 7-2) has shown the ability to win at this level; albeit primarily on dirt. Look for him to be battling Distinctiv Passion on the front end in the early going.
RACE 8 (F)Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Frannie'sspirittoo (ML 5-1) has been showing steady improvement, taking the Show at this level over this course at this distance last time out.
# 3 Janes Ship (ML 5-1) drops down from MSW company in an attempt to ship and win from New Mexico.
# 8 Dolphin Shorts (ML 5-1) makes her second career start for the Mike Mitchell; Mitchell gets 20% winners from runners making their second career start in Maiden Claiming events.
# 10 Party Bus (ML 7-2) is a first time Garrett Gomez in the saddle. Party Bus missed by two at this level last time out, after taking the Show against more expensive the trip prior to that.
# 11 Rockin' Hard Gals (9-2) took the Place at this level her last time out, posting the best last out Beyer in this field.
No time for a separate post; so let's post our play here:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 5: 3, 4, 9
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $9.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 6, 9
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $12.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 7, 8
RACE 8: 2, 8, 11
Cost: $6.00
RACE 5: 6, 7
RACE 6: 8
RACE 7: 4, 5
RACE 8: 3, 10
Cost: $4.00
TOTAL COST: $43.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:10 EDT / 4:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 11, 2013
8/10/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
We came; we saw; we won three out of four.
We discussed the winning chances of # 3 Holy Lute (4.20) in Race 7 at Del Mar Saturday; but ultimately we decided to play against, based upon the poor meet Trainer James Cassidy was having, along with the jockey switch from Mike Smith to David Flores. So when Holy Lute won clear over our two "A" selections, # 4 Imperial Fortune (1.50*) and # 2 Proven Warrior (5.30), who took the Place and Show respectively, our tickets became nothing but souvenirs.
We captured victory with "A" selections in both Race 8 (# 8 Dice Flavor (8.90)) and Race 10 (# 8 Cinco de Mario (3.30)); while one of our "C" contenders, # 9 Glorious Luck (7.90), crossed the wire ahead of the rest of the field in Race 9. So when the synthetic dust from the polytrack had settled, we had a $24 ticket of
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 2, 4, 7, 9
RACE 10: 3, 8
containing winners in three legs, plus the Place (and Show) horse in the other leg. Which, as you all know, is worth absolutely nothing; thus making our net loss on the day $47.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct winning sequence of 3 / 8 / 9 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,135.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We discussed the winning chances of # 3 Holy Lute (4.20) in Race 7 at Del Mar Saturday; but ultimately we decided to play against, based upon the poor meet Trainer James Cassidy was having, along with the jockey switch from Mike Smith to David Flores. So when Holy Lute won clear over our two "A" selections, # 4 Imperial Fortune (1.50*) and # 2 Proven Warrior (5.30), who took the Place and Show respectively, our tickets became nothing but souvenirs.
We captured victory with "A" selections in both Race 8 (# 8 Dice Flavor (8.90)) and Race 10 (# 8 Cinco de Mario (3.30)); while one of our "C" contenders, # 9 Glorious Luck (7.90), crossed the wire ahead of the rest of the field in Race 9. So when the synthetic dust from the polytrack had settled, we had a $24 ticket of
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 2, 4, 7, 9
RACE 10: 3, 8
containing winners in three legs, plus the Place (and Show) horse in the other leg. Which, as you all know, is worth absolutely nothing; thus making our net loss on the day $47.00.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct winning sequence of 3 / 8 / 9 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,135.75 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 10, 2013
8/10/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
Analysis of the contenders for each leg can be found in the prior post. As I mentioned there, the competitiveness of the other legs prevents me from going with ALL in Race 9. I think #12 Bench Glory has an edge over the rest of the field in that one. It's a slight edge; but to me it's clear. Now, is a big enough edge to get her to the Finish Line in time? We'll know soon enough.
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $3.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 6
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 2, 4, 7, 9
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $24.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 4, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $47.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Play this one for one dollar:
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 5
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $3.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 6
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $2.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 2, 4, 7, 9
RACE 10: 3, 8
Cost: $24.00
RACE 7: 2, 4
RACE 8: 3, 4, 8
RACE 9: 12
RACE 10: 4, 6
Cost: $6.00
TOTAL COST: $47.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/10/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
There's no Pick Six carryover going into today's card at Del Mar; but there are several competitive events; and, as always, the chance to have some fun, and maybe turn a little profit. With that, let's take a look at today's Late Pick Four:
RACE 7 MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Proven Warrior (Morning Line 5-1) took the Place in each of his first two career starts, with Beyer Speed Figures that are normally good enough to win at this level. In each of those first two races Proven Warrior came from just off the pace and was making up ground at the end. In his most recent contest, it appears that Proven Warrior was gunned for the early lead; and when he didn’t make it, he pretty much spit the bit, and finished well back in fifth. We’ll see how he’s driven today; but 5-1 looks to be a very generous price.
# 3 Holy Lute (ML 4-1) looked sharp in his debut in July, and any reasonable improvement over that effort should put him right in the mix today. The problem is that Holy Lute goes for a barn that is winless in this current meet; and it’s tough to view the switch in rider from Smith to Flores as a positive.
# 4 Imperial Fortune (ML 5-2) is a Bob Baffert trained colt that really stepped up his last time out in his second career start; as he just missed graduating while taking the Place behind Tom’s Tribute, who in turn just missed by a neck in winning his next time out in his first try against winners.
# 5 Raider Power (ML 8-1) is a first time starter going for conditioner Thomas Proctor, who gets 14% winners from debut performers. The progeny of Indian Charlie (Raider Power’s sire) win approximately 16% of their initial attempts. Raider Power has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. Mike Smith is scheduled to be in the irons today.
# 8 Wonderful Union (ML 3-1), like Raider Power, is also a first time starter. Wonderful Union was sired by Tiz Wonderful, whose offspring get their picture taken right after their debut performances nearly 23% of the time. Trainer Ron Ellis does not sport a good record with first time starters; but the bullet Wonderful Union fired in his last workout (working from the gate) combined with the presence of Joe Talamo in the saddle, along with the above referenced sire stats, suggests that Wonderful Union just might to be ready to hit the ground running.
If Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune fire their best, then the race will be between those two. But the fact that neither has ever previously competed over the Del Mar main track suggests that it might be wise to use some, if not all, of the other contenders listed above. I’ll most likely be using Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune as my “A’s” with the others as my “C’s” for this leg.
RACE 8 - The La Jolla Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 3 Uno Dos Adios (ML 8-1) has been maturing quite nicely, and makes the step up today to his first stakes competition. A normal continued progression should allow him to be competitive against this group today.
# 4 Dry Summer (ML 6-1) won the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf here last December, thus making him the only entrant in today’s contest with a win over this course. Joe Talamo, who was on board for that one, gets the ride again today.
# 6 Rosengold (ML 5-1) had pocketed three straight stakes wins before losing the lead in the stretch his last time out in one of the divisions of the Oceanside. While I don’t expect him to get the easy early lead that he had in the Tsunami Slew Stakes, there is the possibility that he could sneak off with some light fractions in the early going today.
# 8 Dice Flavor (ML 6-1) broke his maiden on the grass in a contest run at today’s distance. Dice Flavor’s performance his last time out while taking the Show in the Grade 2 Swaps strongly suggests that he’s fully recovered from his trip to Dubai earlier this year. Garrett Gomez, making his return to competition today, gets the mount.
# 9 Pure Loyalty (ML 8-1) deserves a bogey for his last time out, the only time he has failed to fire since making the transition to grass. Pure Loyalty just missed catching Rosengold in the aforementioned Tsunami Slew, and his best is good enough to compete against this field.
I didn’t think much of either division of The Oceanside this year, which is why Rosengold in the only horse coming out of that event that I’m considering using today. I’m currently leaning towards Dice Flavor; but this contest is competitive enough that there are several legitimate ways to go.
RACE 9 - (F)OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 12 Bench Glory (ML 8-1) is one-for-two over the Del Mar surface, making her the only competitor in the field with a win over this track. In her most recent contest, against tougher, Bench Glory finished fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner. Both the Place and the Show horse from that event have won their next time out.
Beyond Bench Glory, this appears to be anyone’s race. # 7 She’s a Go Girl (ML 20-1) won at this level at Turf Paradise her last time out. Defining competitive as finishing in the money and/or within three lengths of the winner, # 1 Possible (GB) (ML 8-1); # 2 Gifting (ML 7-2); # 3 Warren’s Internet (ML 15-1); # 5 Llandudno (ML 10-1); # 10 Ubelongtomemissy (ML 8-1); and # 11 Wild in the Saddle (ML 20-1) were all competitive at this level in their most recent contests. # 4 Unseen Visitor (ML 6-1) and # 9 Glorious Luck (ML 9-2) are both lightly raced horses who have each won their last two races and are now making a move up in class.
This race pretty much cries out for the “ALL” button; but as the other legs in this series are also competitive, doing so would pretty much make a Pick Four ticket unplayable. I suspect that I’ll be using Bench Glory as a single “A” contender; and then trying to cobble together a few to use as “C’s” in case she doesn’t fire.
RACE 10 Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Trouble X Two (ML 6-1) took the Place at this distance @ Hollywood Park two races back. Joe Talamo, who was on board last time, when they tried to stretch out Trouble X Two on the grass, will get the ride again today.
# 4 Wheeler Gorge (ML 6-1) flashed some early speed while going up against MSW company up North in his debut back in June.
# 6 Wildcat Candy (ML 3-1) took the Place against cheaper last time out; the winner of that one went on to win a Starter Allowance his next time out. Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for Wildcat Candy’s previous two starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Cinco de Mario (ML 7-2) moves another step down the class ladder after being unable to hold the lead in the stretch against more expensive his last time out. This will be Cinco de Mario’s first time sprinting since July of last year. Cinco de Mario has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
The Morning Line looks very generous for Trouble X Two; if Cinco de Mario manages to avoid the Winner’s Circle again, it would hardly be a surprise if Trouble X Two was the one getting his picture taken at the end the day.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I've have my Pick Four play up at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Proven Warrior (Morning Line 5-1) took the Place in each of his first two career starts, with Beyer Speed Figures that are normally good enough to win at this level. In each of those first two races Proven Warrior came from just off the pace and was making up ground at the end. In his most recent contest, it appears that Proven Warrior was gunned for the early lead; and when he didn’t make it, he pretty much spit the bit, and finished well back in fifth. We’ll see how he’s driven today; but 5-1 looks to be a very generous price.
# 3 Holy Lute (ML 4-1) looked sharp in his debut in July, and any reasonable improvement over that effort should put him right in the mix today. The problem is that Holy Lute goes for a barn that is winless in this current meet; and it’s tough to view the switch in rider from Smith to Flores as a positive.
# 4 Imperial Fortune (ML 5-2) is a Bob Baffert trained colt that really stepped up his last time out in his second career start; as he just missed graduating while taking the Place behind Tom’s Tribute, who in turn just missed by a neck in winning his next time out in his first try against winners.
# 5 Raider Power (ML 8-1) is a first time starter going for conditioner Thomas Proctor, who gets 14% winners from debut performers. The progeny of Indian Charlie (Raider Power’s sire) win approximately 16% of their initial attempts. Raider Power has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. Mike Smith is scheduled to be in the irons today.
# 8 Wonderful Union (ML 3-1), like Raider Power, is also a first time starter. Wonderful Union was sired by Tiz Wonderful, whose offspring get their picture taken right after their debut performances nearly 23% of the time. Trainer Ron Ellis does not sport a good record with first time starters; but the bullet Wonderful Union fired in his last workout (working from the gate) combined with the presence of Joe Talamo in the saddle, along with the above referenced sire stats, suggests that Wonderful Union just might to be ready to hit the ground running.
If Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune fire their best, then the race will be between those two. But the fact that neither has ever previously competed over the Del Mar main track suggests that it might be wise to use some, if not all, of the other contenders listed above. I’ll most likely be using Proven Warrior and Imperial Fortune as my “A’s” with the others as my “C’s” for this leg.
RACE 8 - The La Jolla Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 3 Uno Dos Adios (ML 8-1) has been maturing quite nicely, and makes the step up today to his first stakes competition. A normal continued progression should allow him to be competitive against this group today.
# 4 Dry Summer (ML 6-1) won the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf here last December, thus making him the only entrant in today’s contest with a win over this course. Joe Talamo, who was on board for that one, gets the ride again today.
# 6 Rosengold (ML 5-1) had pocketed three straight stakes wins before losing the lead in the stretch his last time out in one of the divisions of the Oceanside. While I don’t expect him to get the easy early lead that he had in the Tsunami Slew Stakes, there is the possibility that he could sneak off with some light fractions in the early going today.
# 8 Dice Flavor (ML 6-1) broke his maiden on the grass in a contest run at today’s distance. Dice Flavor’s performance his last time out while taking the Show in the Grade 2 Swaps strongly suggests that he’s fully recovered from his trip to Dubai earlier this year. Garrett Gomez, making his return to competition today, gets the mount.
# 9 Pure Loyalty (ML 8-1) deserves a bogey for his last time out, the only time he has failed to fire since making the transition to grass. Pure Loyalty just missed catching Rosengold in the aforementioned Tsunami Slew, and his best is good enough to compete against this field.
I didn’t think much of either division of The Oceanside this year, which is why Rosengold in the only horse coming out of that event that I’m considering using today. I’m currently leaning towards Dice Flavor; but this contest is competitive enough that there are several legitimate ways to go.
RACE 9 - (F)OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 12 Bench Glory (ML 8-1) is one-for-two over the Del Mar surface, making her the only competitor in the field with a win over this track. In her most recent contest, against tougher, Bench Glory finished fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner. Both the Place and the Show horse from that event have won their next time out.
Beyond Bench Glory, this appears to be anyone’s race. # 7 She’s a Go Girl (ML 20-1) won at this level at Turf Paradise her last time out. Defining competitive as finishing in the money and/or within three lengths of the winner, # 1 Possible (GB) (ML 8-1); # 2 Gifting (ML 7-2); # 3 Warren’s Internet (ML 15-1); # 5 Llandudno (ML 10-1); # 10 Ubelongtomemissy (ML 8-1); and # 11 Wild in the Saddle (ML 20-1) were all competitive at this level in their most recent contests. # 4 Unseen Visitor (ML 6-1) and # 9 Glorious Luck (ML 9-2) are both lightly raced horses who have each won their last two races and are now making a move up in class.
This race pretty much cries out for the “ALL” button; but as the other legs in this series are also competitive, doing so would pretty much make a Pick Four ticket unplayable. I suspect that I’ll be using Bench Glory as a single “A” contender; and then trying to cobble together a few to use as “C’s” in case she doesn’t fire.
RACE 10 Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
# 3 Trouble X Two (ML 6-1) took the Place at this distance @ Hollywood Park two races back. Joe Talamo, who was on board last time, when they tried to stretch out Trouble X Two on the grass, will get the ride again today.
# 4 Wheeler Gorge (ML 6-1) flashed some early speed while going up against MSW company up North in his debut back in June.
# 6 Wildcat Candy (ML 3-1) took the Place against cheaper last time out; the winner of that one went on to win a Starter Allowance his next time out. Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for Wildcat Candy’s previous two starts, gets the mount again today.
# 8 Cinco de Mario (ML 7-2) moves another step down the class ladder after being unable to hold the lead in the stretch against more expensive his last time out. This will be Cinco de Mario’s first time sprinting since July of last year. Cinco de Mario has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
The Morning Line looks very generous for Trouble X Two; if Cinco de Mario manages to avoid the Winner’s Circle again, it would hardly be a surprise if Trouble X Two was the one getting his picture taken at the end the day.
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I've have my Pick Four play up at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
8/7/13 DMR R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We started watching Gypsy Friday based upon her performance in this race back in June of 2012. Wednesday, Gypsy Friday made her second start of 2013, in Race 8 at Del Mar.
Breaking quickly from the rail, Gypsy Friday (Final Odds 7.90) grabbed the early lead, setting early fractions of 22.85 for the first quarter and 45.95 for the half. Gypsy Friday was still leading the pack as the field entered the stretch; but she couldn't hold on, and finished third, two and a quarter lengths behind Suances Pride (4.50).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking quickly from the rail, Gypsy Friday (Final Odds 7.90) grabbed the early lead, setting early fractions of 22.85 for the first quarter and 45.95 for the half. Gypsy Friday was still leading the pack as the field entered the stretch; but she couldn't hold on, and finished third, two and a quarter lengths behind Suances Pride (4.50).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, August 4, 2013
8/4/13 SAR R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We put Hurricane Jackie on our watch list in June based upon her performance while breaking her maiden at Belmont Park. On Sunday, in Race 7 at Saratoga, Hurricane Jackie made her first start against winners. The results were not good.
Hurricane Jackie (Final Odds 3.80) found herself caught up in an early speed duel, with fractions of 22.14 for the opening quarter and 46.06 for the half. Unsurprisingly, the early pace collapsed; no horse who was in the front five at the half mile mark finished better than sixth. As for Hurricane Jackie, she was third at the half, just two lengths back of that blistering pace; she would finish last, over twenty-five lengths back of the winner, Funny Money (4.00).
We'll keep our eye on Hurricane Jackie for at least a couple more starts, to see if Trainer Todd Pletcher can teach this three year old filly to rate, and improve upon the ability that she showed back in June.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Hurricane Jackie (Final Odds 3.80) found herself caught up in an early speed duel, with fractions of 22.14 for the opening quarter and 46.06 for the half. Unsurprisingly, the early pace collapsed; no horse who was in the front five at the half mile mark finished better than sixth. As for Hurricane Jackie, she was third at the half, just two lengths back of that blistering pace; she would finish last, over twenty-five lengths back of the winner, Funny Money (4.00).
We'll keep our eye on Hurricane Jackie for at least a couple more starts, to see if Trainer Todd Pletcher can teach this three year old filly to rate, and improve upon the ability that she showed back in June.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/3/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
It was a wild one at Del Mar Saturday, as only one Post Time favorite made it to the Winner's Circle. That made for a day of very nice prices; but, unfortunately for us, all we did was feed the pool.
In our analysis of Race 7 we mentioned two first time starters; but when we wrote up our ticket, we only played one. As it sometimes goes, the one we played, #11 Meinertzhageni (Final Odds 13.10) took the Place behind the one we did not play, # 5 Sunday Rules (5.20). The story of Race 8 was similar, as we analyzed the winning chances of # 1 Lady of Fifty (10.60) but thought her unworthy of the top spot; only to see her cross the wire first in the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch; while our selection, # 2 Byrama (4.20) took the Show in a very troubled trip. At least we can claim a moral victory, as our suspicions regarding highly touted # 9 Include Me Out (1.00) were validated, as she finished next to last.
We did have the winner covered in Race 9, # 4 Chibita (8.50); as well as the winner in Race 10, # 7 Ethnic Dance (1.90*). Indeed, if you were wise enough to take the three horses that we analyzed in Race 10 (Ethnic Dance; # 3 Turn On the Pumps (7.50); and # 2 Pulpit's Express (3.30)) and box them in the Exacta and Trifecta, you were rewarded with a $1 Exacta that paid $15.90 and a $1 Trifecta that paid $48.80. Unfortunately, I personally was not wise enough to have done that.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who were wise enough to play the correct winning sequence of 5 / 1 / 4 / 7 in the Pick Four got to collect $1,361.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
In our analysis of Race 7 we mentioned two first time starters; but when we wrote up our ticket, we only played one. As it sometimes goes, the one we played, #11 Meinertzhageni (Final Odds 13.10) took the Place behind the one we did not play, # 5 Sunday Rules (5.20). The story of Race 8 was similar, as we analyzed the winning chances of # 1 Lady of Fifty (10.60) but thought her unworthy of the top spot; only to see her cross the wire first in the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch; while our selection, # 2 Byrama (4.20) took the Show in a very troubled trip. At least we can claim a moral victory, as our suspicions regarding highly touted # 9 Include Me Out (1.00) were validated, as she finished next to last.
We did have the winner covered in Race 9, # 4 Chibita (8.50); as well as the winner in Race 10, # 7 Ethnic Dance (1.90*). Indeed, if you were wise enough to take the three horses that we analyzed in Race 10 (Ethnic Dance; # 3 Turn On the Pumps (7.50); and # 2 Pulpit's Express (3.30)) and box them in the Exacta and Trifecta, you were rewarded with a $1 Exacta that paid $15.90 and a $1 Trifecta that paid $48.80. Unfortunately, I personally was not wise enough to have done that.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Those who were wise enough to play the correct winning sequence of 5 / 1 / 4 / 7 in the Pick Four got to collect $1,361.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, August 3, 2013
8/3/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - The Play
Analysis of the contenders for each leg can be found in the prior post. In order to keep the Pick Four tickets under budget, a choice had to be made. If I were to use the "ALL" button for Race 9, then I would have to single Include Me Out in Race 8, the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch. Using another horse in addition to Include Me Out would mean weeding out some entrants in Race 9.
I chose the latter option. Was it the right choice? We'll know before the sun sets in San Diego tonight.
So here's the play: one ticket, played for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 3, 6, 11
RACE 8: 2, 9
RACE 9: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
RACE 10: 2, 7
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
I chose the latter option. Was it the right choice? We'll know before the sun sets in San Diego tonight.
So here's the play: one ticket, played for fifty cents:
RACE 7: 1, 3, 6, 11
RACE 8: 2, 9
RACE 9: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
RACE 10: 2, 7
TOTAL COST: $40.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
8/3/13 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
A double carryover in Saturday's Pick Six at Del Mar virtually guarantees that they'll be plenty of added action in all the pools today. As per usual, I'll be taking a look at the Late Pick Four on the card. I'll put my analysis in this post, and post my tickets later.
RACE 7 [S](F)MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Swissarella (ML 7-2) just missed at this level her last time out, in a race from which the Show horse graduated her next time out. Gary Stevens, who is having a terrific meet thus far, will be along for the ride once again.
# 3 Eddies Curl (ML 5-2) is the only entrant in the field with a race over this track, having taken the Place (at 19-1) in the $100k California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Stakes on July 19. Eddies Curl should certainly appreciate the class drop, and looms as the one to beat.
# 5 Sunday Rules (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for the Mick Mitchell barn. Sunday Rules has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field, and is sired by Tribal Rule, whose offspring win approximately 13.5% of their debuts.
# 6 Miss Loujean (ML 5-1) showed good early speed in her debut three weeks back, when she took the Place at 10-1. Trainer Keith Craigmyle has shown some proficiency with second time starters, albeit in a very limited sample size. Cheryl Charlton, who was on board in that initial try, gets the mount again today.
# 11 Meinertzhageni (ML 8-1) is a first time starter sired by Stormin Fever, whose progeny have a Winning Percentage of .21 in their initial tries. Speaking of .21 Winning Percentages, that’s the figure for Trainer Jeff Bonde in first starts (sample size of 78); MSW events (ss 113); two year old contests (ss 121) and races on synthetic surfaces (ss 262). Bonde’s charges do slightly better than the magical .21 in sprints, where they win approximately 23% of the time (sample size 438). Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, who recorded her first win of 2013 last night, will be on top of Meinertzhageni today.
Both Eddies Curl and Miss Loujean have posted Beyer Speed Figures in their prior efforts that are well within striking range of par for this class; which suggests that the two first time starters above should probably be downplayed; perhaps they’ll be our “C” contenders here. We’ll see later, as the decision will be heavily influenced by how many contenders we come up with for the other races in this sequence.
RACE 8 - The Clement L Hirsch (F) (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 9 Include Me Out (ML 9-5) is certainly the one to beat in this field: a multi-time Graded Stakes winner; a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track; and the “defending champ” as the winner of this event last year. Is she a stand out? Well, it should be noted that this is just her second start of 2013, and her first two turn test this year; when Include Me Out won the Clement L Hirsch in 2012, it was after having captured victories in three other Graded Stakes earlier that year. Perhaps just a trifling detail; or perhaps a sign that Include Me Out is not yet ready to fire her best.
# 3 Byrama (ML 3-1) won the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap two starts back, and just missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Madison two starts before that. As mentioned earlier, Jockey Gary Stevens is having an incredible meet thus far; and if the early pace is as frantic as it sets up to be on paper, Byrama can be expected to be coming with a late charge at the finish.
# 1 Lady of Fifty (ML 6-1) is another that should benefit if the early pace plays as hot as it maps out in the PPs. The big question with Lady of Fifty concerns her last outing; while she took the Show in the Grade 1 Vanity, she was not at her best. If that was just a one off due to fatigue, then giving her a bogey for that one seems like the way to go. If, however, Lady of Fifty’s subpar performance in that event was due to a more serious deterioration of form, then expect her to still be looking at the hind quarters of the rest of the field as they cross the wire. The fact that Lady of Fifty has disappointed as the Post Time favorite in three of her four last outings suggests caution before using her in the top spot of your tickets; but using Lady of Fifty in your intra-race exotics in the second and third positions projects to be a very sound strategy, providing she runs to her prior form.
Again, the question with this race is whether or not to consider Include Me Out a standout in this field. Singling Include Me Out is quite tempting, as it would allow us to go deeper in the other races in this sequence.
RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Localsucess (ML 8-1) has been competitive his last three times out, all at this approximate class level.
# 3 Just Irish (ML 7-2) earned a 73 Beyer his last time out; a number close in range to par for today’s level. But that race was two turns on some California grass; so there’s no guarantee that his form will carry over to today’s contest. Trainer Doug O’Neill has not been having a good meet so far.
# 4 Chibita (ML 8-1) just missed at this level his last time out, but with a Beyer well below par.
# 5 Bob Consultation (ML 6-1) has been competing against tougher since breaking his maiden back in March. He should appreciate the class relief, and will probably be on or near the lead in the early going.
# 8 I’ll Run the Show (ML 12-1) couldn’t make the lead when moved up to this class level his last time out, and finished last.
# 9 Sun Catcher (ML 20-1) finally broke his maiden, wiring the field in an eight in a half furlong route. Sun Catcher has never finished in the money in four sprint tries.
# 10 Changing Karma (ML 20-1), previously trained by M Brent Davidson, makes his first start for Trainer Keith Craigmyle, whose entrants win 27% of their initial tries for his barn.
# 11 Eyesablazin (ML 5-1) has finished in the money three times in his eleven race career. None of those three races were sprints; and none of the three were on a synthetic surface.
# 12 Blue Collar Boy (ML 20-1) returned to competition in his last race after a layoff of over eighteen months, in a race at this class level, from which he was claimed. The fact that his new connections are willing to sell him for the same amount they paid suggests that Blue Collar Boy is nowhere near the form that he displayed as a two year old.
This race practically screams out for the “ALL” button. The logical contenders all have serious question marks, which makes it difficult to toss out the other entrants. I may change my mind later; but, for now, I am seriously leaning towards just playing “ALL” in this one.
RACE 10 - [S]OC 25k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Pulpit’s Express (ML 5-2) won at this level as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, only to be disqualified and placed sixth because of interference in the stretch. Looks like the one to beat again today.
# 3 Turn On the Pumps (ML-9-2) has been consistently competitive against this level or better in all his contests this year; but without finding the Winner’s Circle. As Carla Gaines is serving her suspension, Jerry Quinn will be the named trainer for this one.
# 7 Ethnic Dance (ML 3-1) broke his maiden his last time out with a Beyer that exceeds par for this company; but it’s a Beyer figure that probably should be downgraded a bit, as it was earned while wiring the field with relatively easy fractions. Still, Ethnic Dance is a legitimate contender in this one; and the fact that he’s trained by John Sadler while being ridden by Rafael Bejarano just adds to the appeal.
I’ll definitely be covering Pulpit’s Express and Ethnic Dance in my Pick Four play. The question will be what to do with Turn On the Pumps: include him with the other two as an “A” contender; make him a “C” contender; or just drop him from the ticket altogether.
If I stay with my plan to go "ALL" in Race 9, then I'm going to be seriously limited in how deep I can go in the other legs, especially Race 7. So I may have to modify that stance later this afternoon.
Post Time for Race 7, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my tickets posted at least a half hour prior to then.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 [S](F)MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Swissarella (ML 7-2) just missed at this level her last time out, in a race from which the Show horse graduated her next time out. Gary Stevens, who is having a terrific meet thus far, will be along for the ride once again.
# 3 Eddies Curl (ML 5-2) is the only entrant in the field with a race over this track, having taken the Place (at 19-1) in the $100k California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Stakes on July 19. Eddies Curl should certainly appreciate the class drop, and looms as the one to beat.
# 5 Sunday Rules (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for the Mick Mitchell barn. Sunday Rules has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field, and is sired by Tribal Rule, whose offspring win approximately 13.5% of their debuts.
# 6 Miss Loujean (ML 5-1) showed good early speed in her debut three weeks back, when she took the Place at 10-1. Trainer Keith Craigmyle has shown some proficiency with second time starters, albeit in a very limited sample size. Cheryl Charlton, who was on board in that initial try, gets the mount again today.
# 11 Meinertzhageni (ML 8-1) is a first time starter sired by Stormin Fever, whose progeny have a Winning Percentage of .21 in their initial tries. Speaking of .21 Winning Percentages, that’s the figure for Trainer Jeff Bonde in first starts (sample size of 78); MSW events (ss 113); two year old contests (ss 121) and races on synthetic surfaces (ss 262). Bonde’s charges do slightly better than the magical .21 in sprints, where they win approximately 23% of the time (sample size 438). Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, who recorded her first win of 2013 last night, will be on top of Meinertzhageni today.
Both Eddies Curl and Miss Loujean have posted Beyer Speed Figures in their prior efforts that are well within striking range of par for this class; which suggests that the two first time starters above should probably be downplayed; perhaps they’ll be our “C” contenders here. We’ll see later, as the decision will be heavily influenced by how many contenders we come up with for the other races in this sequence.
RACE 8 - The Clement L Hirsch (F) (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 9 Include Me Out (ML 9-5) is certainly the one to beat in this field: a multi-time Graded Stakes winner; a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track; and the “defending champ” as the winner of this event last year. Is she a stand out? Well, it should be noted that this is just her second start of 2013, and her first two turn test this year; when Include Me Out won the Clement L Hirsch in 2012, it was after having captured victories in three other Graded Stakes earlier that year. Perhaps just a trifling detail; or perhaps a sign that Include Me Out is not yet ready to fire her best.
# 3 Byrama (ML 3-1) won the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap two starts back, and just missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Madison two starts before that. As mentioned earlier, Jockey Gary Stevens is having an incredible meet thus far; and if the early pace is as frantic as it sets up to be on paper, Byrama can be expected to be coming with a late charge at the finish.
# 1 Lady of Fifty (ML 6-1) is another that should benefit if the early pace plays as hot as it maps out in the PPs. The big question with Lady of Fifty concerns her last outing; while she took the Show in the Grade 1 Vanity, she was not at her best. If that was just a one off due to fatigue, then giving her a bogey for that one seems like the way to go. If, however, Lady of Fifty’s subpar performance in that event was due to a more serious deterioration of form, then expect her to still be looking at the hind quarters of the rest of the field as they cross the wire. The fact that Lady of Fifty has disappointed as the Post Time favorite in three of her four last outings suggests caution before using her in the top spot of your tickets; but using Lady of Fifty in your intra-race exotics in the second and third positions projects to be a very sound strategy, providing she runs to her prior form.
Again, the question with this race is whether or not to consider Include Me Out a standout in this field. Singling Include Me Out is quite tempting, as it would allow us to go deeper in the other races in this sequence.
RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Localsucess (ML 8-1) has been competitive his last three times out, all at this approximate class level.
# 3 Just Irish (ML 7-2) earned a 73 Beyer his last time out; a number close in range to par for today’s level. But that race was two turns on some California grass; so there’s no guarantee that his form will carry over to today’s contest. Trainer Doug O’Neill has not been having a good meet so far.
# 4 Chibita (ML 8-1) just missed at this level his last time out, but with a Beyer well below par.
# 5 Bob Consultation (ML 6-1) has been competing against tougher since breaking his maiden back in March. He should appreciate the class relief, and will probably be on or near the lead in the early going.
# 8 I’ll Run the Show (ML 12-1) couldn’t make the lead when moved up to this class level his last time out, and finished last.
# 9 Sun Catcher (ML 20-1) finally broke his maiden, wiring the field in an eight in a half furlong route. Sun Catcher has never finished in the money in four sprint tries.
# 10 Changing Karma (ML 20-1), previously trained by M Brent Davidson, makes his first start for Trainer Keith Craigmyle, whose entrants win 27% of their initial tries for his barn.
# 11 Eyesablazin (ML 5-1) has finished in the money three times in his eleven race career. None of those three races were sprints; and none of the three were on a synthetic surface.
# 12 Blue Collar Boy (ML 20-1) returned to competition in his last race after a layoff of over eighteen months, in a race at this class level, from which he was claimed. The fact that his new connections are willing to sell him for the same amount they paid suggests that Blue Collar Boy is nowhere near the form that he displayed as a two year old.
This race practically screams out for the “ALL” button. The logical contenders all have serious question marks, which makes it difficult to toss out the other entrants. I may change my mind later; but, for now, I am seriously leaning towards just playing “ALL” in this one.
RACE 10 - [S]OC 25k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Pulpit’s Express (ML 5-2) won at this level as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, only to be disqualified and placed sixth because of interference in the stretch. Looks like the one to beat again today.
# 3 Turn On the Pumps (ML-9-2) has been consistently competitive against this level or better in all his contests this year; but without finding the Winner’s Circle. As Carla Gaines is serving her suspension, Jerry Quinn will be the named trainer for this one.
# 7 Ethnic Dance (ML 3-1) broke his maiden his last time out with a Beyer that exceeds par for this company; but it’s a Beyer figure that probably should be downgraded a bit, as it was earned while wiring the field with relatively easy fractions. Still, Ethnic Dance is a legitimate contender in this one; and the fact that he’s trained by John Sadler while being ridden by Rafael Bejarano just adds to the appeal.
I’ll definitely be covering Pulpit’s Express and Ethnic Dance in my Pick Four play. The question will be what to do with Turn On the Pumps: include him with the other two as an “A” contender; make him a “C” contender; or just drop him from the ticket altogether.
If I stay with my plan to go "ALL" in Race 9, then I'm going to be seriously limited in how deep I can go in the other legs, especially Race 7. So I may have to modify that stance later this afternoon.
Post Time for Race 7, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my tickets posted at least a half hour prior to then.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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