A double carryover in Saturday's Pick Six at Del Mar virtually guarantees that they'll be plenty of added action in all the pools today. As per usual, I'll be taking a look at the Late Pick Four on the card. I'll put my analysis in this post, and post my tickets later.
RACE 7 [S](F)MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Swissarella (ML 7-2) just missed at this level her last time out, in a race from which the Show horse graduated her next time out. Gary Stevens, who is having a terrific meet thus far, will be along for the ride once again.
# 3 Eddies Curl (ML 5-2) is the only entrant in the field with a race over this track, having taken the Place (at 19-1) in the $100k California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Stakes on July 19. Eddies Curl should certainly appreciate the class drop, and looms as the one to beat.
# 5 Sunday Rules (ML 4-1) is a first time starter for the Mick Mitchell barn. Sunday Rules has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in this field, and is sired by Tribal Rule, whose offspring win approximately 13.5% of their debuts.
# 6 Miss Loujean (ML 5-1) showed good early speed in her debut three weeks back, when she took the Place at 10-1. Trainer Keith Craigmyle has shown some proficiency with second time starters, albeit in a very limited sample size. Cheryl Charlton, who was on board in that initial try, gets the mount again today.
# 11 Meinertzhageni (ML 8-1) is a first time starter sired by Stormin Fever, whose progeny have a Winning Percentage of .21 in their initial tries. Speaking of .21 Winning Percentages, that’s the figure for Trainer Jeff Bonde in first starts (sample size of 78); MSW events (ss 113); two year old contests (ss 121) and races on synthetic surfaces (ss 262). Bonde’s charges do slightly better than the magical .21 in sprints, where they win approximately 23% of the time (sample size 438). Chantal Sutherland-Kruse, who recorded her first win of 2013 last night, will be on top of Meinertzhageni today.
Both Eddies Curl and Miss Loujean have posted Beyer Speed Figures in their prior efforts that are well within striking range of par for this class; which suggests that the two first time starters above should probably be downplayed; perhaps they’ll be our “C” contenders here. We’ll see later, as the decision will be heavily influenced by how many contenders we come up with for the other races in this sequence.
RACE 8 - The Clement L Hirsch (F) (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 9 Include Me Out (ML 9-5) is certainly the one to beat in this field: a multi-time Graded Stakes winner; a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track; and the “defending champ” as the winner of this event last year. Is she a stand out? Well, it should be noted that this is just her second start of 2013, and her first two turn test this year; when Include Me Out won the Clement L Hirsch in 2012, it was after having captured victories in three other Graded Stakes earlier that year. Perhaps just a trifling detail; or perhaps a sign that Include Me Out is not yet ready to fire her best.
# 3 Byrama (ML 3-1) won the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap two starts back, and just missed by a neck in the Grade 1 Madison two starts before that. As mentioned earlier, Jockey Gary Stevens is having an incredible meet thus far; and if the early pace is as frantic as it sets up to be on paper, Byrama can be expected to be coming with a late charge at the finish.
# 1 Lady of Fifty (ML 6-1) is another that should benefit if the early pace plays as hot as it maps out in the PPs. The big question with Lady of Fifty concerns her last outing; while she took the Show in the Grade 1 Vanity, she was not at her best. If that was just a one off due to fatigue, then giving her a bogey for that one seems like the way to go. If, however, Lady of Fifty’s subpar performance in that event was due to a more serious deterioration of form, then expect her to still be looking at the hind quarters of the rest of the field as they cross the wire. The fact that Lady of Fifty has disappointed as the Post Time favorite in three of her four last outings suggests caution before using her in the top spot of your tickets; but using Lady of Fifty in your intra-race exotics in the second and third positions projects to be a very sound strategy, providing she runs to her prior form.
Again, the question with this race is whether or not to consider Include Me Out a standout in this field. Singling Include Me Out is quite tempting, as it would allow us to go deeper in the other races in this sequence.
RACE 9 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Localsucess (ML 8-1) has been competitive his last three times out, all at this approximate class level.
# 3 Just Irish (ML 7-2) earned a 73 Beyer his last time out; a number close in range to par for today’s level. But that race was two turns on some California grass; so there’s no guarantee that his form will carry over to today’s contest. Trainer Doug O’Neill has not been having a good meet so far.
# 4 Chibita (ML 8-1) just missed at this level his last time out, but with a Beyer well below par.
# 5 Bob Consultation (ML 6-1) has been competing against tougher since breaking his maiden back in March. He should appreciate the class relief, and will probably be on or near the lead in the early going.
# 8 I’ll Run the Show (ML 12-1) couldn’t make the lead when moved up to this class level his last time out, and finished last.
# 9 Sun Catcher (ML 20-1) finally broke his maiden, wiring the field in an eight in a half furlong route. Sun Catcher has never finished in the money in four sprint tries.
# 10 Changing Karma (ML 20-1), previously trained by M Brent Davidson, makes his first start for Trainer Keith Craigmyle, whose entrants win 27% of their initial tries for his barn.
# 11 Eyesablazin (ML 5-1) has finished in the money three times in his eleven race career. None of those three races were sprints; and none of the three were on a synthetic surface.
# 12 Blue Collar Boy (ML 20-1) returned to competition in his last race after a layoff of over eighteen months, in a race at this class level, from which he was claimed. The fact that his new connections are willing to sell him for the same amount they paid suggests that Blue Collar Boy is nowhere near the form that he displayed as a two year old.
This race practically screams out for the “ALL” button. The logical contenders all have serious question marks, which makes it difficult to toss out the other entrants. I may change my mind later; but, for now, I am seriously leaning towards just playing “ALL” in this one.
RACE 10 - [S]OC 25k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
# 2 Pulpit’s Express (ML 5-2) won at this level as the Post Time Favorite his last time out, only to be disqualified and placed sixth because of interference in the stretch. Looks like the one to beat again today.
# 3 Turn On the Pumps (ML-9-2) has been consistently competitive against this level or better in all his contests this year; but without finding the Winner’s Circle. As Carla Gaines is serving her suspension, Jerry Quinn will be the named trainer for this one.
# 7 Ethnic Dance (ML 3-1) broke his maiden his last time out with a Beyer that exceeds par for this company; but it’s a Beyer figure that probably should be downgraded a bit, as it was earned while wiring the field with relatively easy fractions. Still, Ethnic Dance is a legitimate contender in this one; and the fact that he’s trained by John Sadler while being ridden by Rafael Bejarano just adds to the appeal.
I’ll definitely be covering Pulpit’s Express and Ethnic Dance in my Pick Four play. The question will be what to do with Turn On the Pumps: include him with the other two as an “A” contender; make him a “C” contender; or just drop him from the ticket altogether.
If I stay with my plan to go "ALL" in Race 9, then I'm going to be seriously limited in how deep I can go in the other legs, especially Race 7. So I may have to modify that stance later this afternoon.
Post Time for Race 7, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is 8:10 EDT / 5:10 PDT. Good Lord willing, I’ll have my tickets posted at least a half hour prior to then.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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