Going for a little change of pace today; rather than playing the Late Pick Four as usual, I decided to handicap the Pick Five; a decision strongly influenced by Del Mar's decision to card three maiden events among today's final four races.
RACE 1 (F)Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 2 Boller Bomb (Morning Line 5-2) just missed at this level last time out over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course, losing by less than a length (note that the Show horse from that contest went on to win her next time out). Boller Bomb was claimed out of that race by Trainer Peter Miller, who gets 17% winners from entries first off the claim. Boller Bomb has shown the ability to rate, which should serve her well against this field. Garrett Gomez gets the mount today, which adds to the appeal.
# 4 Upward Spiral (GB) (ML 3-1) runs for the first time today with a price tag on her head. Her last time out was her first time with blinkers and first time around two turns; the experience from that should be a plus. There’s a good amount of early speed in this one; but Upward Spiral could be quickest of the lot and smoke the grass before the others can get rolling. EDIT - Upward Spiral has been scratched.
# 5 Holiday N Newport (ML 15-1) is a Maiden trying winners; in open company, no less. But she’s routing and turfing for the first time; and she possesses the best Tomlinson Distance/Turf Rating in the field; those facts in unison make her an intriguing proposition. Note that Trainer Michael Pender does quite well with horses second off a layoff, as well as those trying the grass for the first time.
# 6 Buckingham Bull (ML 3-1) makes her first start for Trainer Vladimir Cerin, who gets 23% winners when sending out new stock. Buckingham Bull’s form looks like that of a need to lead type, and I don’t see her as being the one in front in the early going against this group.
RACE 2 - Clm $12.5 - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Royal Meridian (ML 2-1) drops down in class after just missing by a nose against more expensive his last time out. Royal Meridian has won half of his six career starts on synthetic surfaces, and has been in the Exacta all three times that he’s competed over the Del Mar main track. This will be Royal Meridian’s first start for Trainer Doug O’Neill.
# 5 Keyboard Courage (ML 5-2) is making his first start off the claim for Trainer Michael Pender, who wins 13% of the time with such. Keyboard Courage makes a move up the class ladder, though his back class shows that he can compete against these. Keyboard Courage has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in five of his last six races that surpass par for this level of competition. Note that the one time in his career that Keyboard Courage has tried this distance he won clear; it’s also worth noting that his Tomlinson Distance Rating far surpasses that of the other entrants in this event.
RACE 3 - Clm $12.5 - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 2 Fear the Beard (ML 4-1) has been competitive in three of his four races this year, all of which were against more expensive; but he’s yet to find the Winner’s Circle since coming back from his sixteen month layoff. Fear the Beard does his best running late; and there may not be enough pace in this one for him to chase. Still, the class drop may provide the spark that he needs; and the fact that Bejarano remains in the saddle must be viewed as a positive.
# 3 Rock This Way (ML 4-1) disappointed as the Post Time favorite his last time out, finishing next-to-last in his first start off the claim for Trainer Robert Hess. But that was against more expensive; Rock This Way did win at the level two back, wiring the field at today’s distance with Joe Talamo in the saddle; Talamo will be on board again today. Note that Rock This Way has been in the Trifecta in four of his five career starts over the Del Mar main track.
# 6 Winsome Charm (ML 7-2) has finished off the board in all three of his starts over the Del Mar main track. On the other hand, Winsome Charm is making a big drop down the class ladder today; and the early speed that he flashed against more expensive in his prior two starts shows that this eight year old still has something left in the tank.
# 7 Big Wags (ML 5-2) won at this level back in June at this distance over the Hollywood Park main track. Big Wags was claimed away from Trainer Bill Spawr in that one; note that Spawr claimed this six year old gelding right back in his next start (paying an additional $3.5k for the privilege). Also worth noting is that the only race in his last seven outings in which Big Wags failed to earn a Beyer of at least 77 was also the only race in which Spawr was not his conditioner.
RACE 4 - (F)The Rancho Bernardo Handicap (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
# 1 Reneesgotzip (ML 4-5) is the only entrant in this field to have ever earned a Triple Digit Beyer, and she’s done so three times in her career (twice over this Del Mar main track). She’s just a nose and a neck away from having two Grade 1 wins on her resume, having lost by those distances in the Santa Anita Oaks and the La Brea Stakes, respectively. Reneesgotzip is a perfect five-for-five over synthetic surfaces, which includes her two wins in two tries at Del Mar. She prefers to run on the front end, but she did show the ability to rate while winning the Skillful Joy Stakes back in December; that ability to come off the pace may come in handy today, as this field is full of front runners.
# 2 Winding Way (ML 5-1) was the victor in last year’s running of this event, which marked her third win in three career starts. Winding Way has had three starts since that contest, and has finished out of the money in all three. Coincidentally, Winding Way’s post race urine test after winning the prep race prior to last year’s Rancho Bernardo revealed that she had excessive levels of testosterone in her system; a finding that led to Winding Way being disqualified from purse money in that event, and to Trainer Carla Gaines being given the thirty day suspension that she is currently serving.
# 4 Curvy Cat (ML 8-1) is the only horse in this contest that I can confidently state won’t be on the early lead today. Being the lone certified late charger in this event should prove beneficial. Expect Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer (who has a positive ROI in Graded Stakes events over the past few years) to have Curvy Cat ready to fire.
RACE 5 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 4 Somethings Unusual (ML 9-2) is one of five in this contest that exits Race 7 on this turf course July 27, an event that saw the first five finishers within a length of the each other at the wire. Somethings Unusual has a late running style that should be a plus against this field; the jockey switch to Bejarano should also be viewed as a plus.
# 7 Tom’s Tribute (ML 5-2) was the Place horse in that July 27 affair; that was Tom’s Tribute’s first try around two turns, and his first time on the grass. Note also the rider switch to Julien Leparoux, who has been doing quite well for himself this meet.
# 9 My Samurai Warrior (ML 8-1) was the fourth place finisher in the above referenced July 27 contest. My Samurai Warrior has shown steadily increasing Beyers over his fast few races, and has previously demonstrated the ability to compete at this level.
# 10 Te Rapa (ML 8-1) is the horse for the course in this contest, having won three times in five tries over this Jimmy Durante Turf Course. This is a step up the class ladder for Te Rapa, but the back class is there; and the Beyers Te Rapa has earned in his prior two starts are competitive at this level.
# 12 Stoney Fleece (ML 8-1) is on the Also Eligible list; so he may not draw in. But if he does run today, then this prior stakes winner must be respected, if for no other reason than that he has John Sadler as his trainer. Stoney Fleece, should he compete today, would also be one of only two horses in this field with a prior win over this turf course. EDIT - Stoney Fleece does not draw in; scratch Stoney Fleece.
This race is wide open, as you would expect from a good turf contest; and, like all good turf contests, expect it to come down to who gets the best trip. The goal here is to find the right number of contenders to give us the coverage we need without going over budget.
Post Time for Race 1 is 2:05 PDT / 5:05 EDT. I expect to have my play up here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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