The saga of Crown Over, the longshot claim by Trainer James Kasparoff that we've been following the past few months, came to a sad end today. Having been claimed for $25k in August, and having run for a $16k tag exactly two weeks ago, Crown Over was entered Saturday for a claiming price of just four thousand dollars. As recorded in the Equibase chart of the race, Crown Over "broke slow, raced up to mid pack then broke down on the turn."
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Monday, December 24, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
12/16/12 GG Race 2 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
In contrast to Crown Over, City Chapel is a longshot claim that we've been following that has panned out and then some for his connections, Owner and Trainer Victor Trujillo. Scooped up for $4,000 out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields on August 26, (a race in which he went to post at Final Odds of 29.8-1) City Chapel had a streak of three straight in-the-money finishes (all against claiming company priced at double that for for which he was purchased) going into Sunday's second race at Golden Gate.
City Chapel did not disappoint. Despite making yet another move up the claiming class ladder, this time to the $12.5k-$10.5k level, City Chapel (Final Odds 9.4-1) continued his streak of finishing in the money, crossing the wire second behind Pat's Paradise (7.8-1). In addition to paying $8.20 to Place and $4.00 to Show (not to mention being half of a Quinella that paid $65.40 for a deuce) City Chapel collected another two grand in purse money, bringing his total purse winnings since being claimed for $4,000 to $8,150.
So City Chapel has returned more than double his original outlay to his current connections in purse money, and is successfully competing against company with a price tag more than triple that for which he was claimed. No matter how you slice it, this has to be considered an extremely successful move by Trujillo, who saw something in this gelding back in August that no one else did.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel did not disappoint. Despite making yet another move up the claiming class ladder, this time to the $12.5k-$10.5k level, City Chapel (Final Odds 9.4-1) continued his streak of finishing in the money, crossing the wire second behind Pat's Paradise (7.8-1). In addition to paying $8.20 to Place and $4.00 to Show (not to mention being half of a Quinella that paid $65.40 for a deuce) City Chapel collected another two grand in purse money, bringing his total purse winnings since being claimed for $4,000 to $8,150.
So City Chapel has returned more than double his original outlay to his current connections in purse money, and is successfully competing against company with a price tag more than triple that for which he was claimed. No matter how you slice it, this has to be considered an extremely successful move by Trujillo, who saw something in this gelding back in August that no one else did.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, December 15, 2012
12/15/12 BHP Race 6 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Hey, did you hear? Zenyatta's half-sister, Eblouissante, was scratched from what would have been her second career start, Race 4 at Hollywood Park on Saturday. Which, needless to say, is not what this post is about. Instead, we'll be focusing on two races after that one, as we continue to follow the exploits of Crown Over.
For those who are new here, Crown Over was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff for $25,000 out of Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields on August 25, a race in which Crown Over left the gate at final odds of 32.2-1. Since the claim, Crown Over has finished in the money for Kasparoff just once.
Saturday, Crown Over competed in Race 6 at Hollywood Park. As was the case in Crown Over's previous race, this was a claiming race ($16k-$14k) for non-winners of two lifetime, run over the it's-not-real-dirt main track. Jockey Joe Talamo again got the mount. One difference to note was that Saturday's race was competed at a distance of six furlongs, while November's contest had been run at six and a half furlongs.
Crown Over went to post Saturday at Final Odds of 5.2-1. As per his usual running style, Crown Over was off a bit slow, and was eleventh (out of thirteen) at first call. Crown Over split horses in midstretch, but had no further response, finishing seventh, a comfortable six and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Tiz Dynamic. Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing seventh Saturday was $350, bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Kasparoff for $25,000 to $3,210.
So what's next for Crown Over? Remember, he's a gelding; so retiring him to the breeding shed isn't an option. Perhaps another class drop; or maybe a move back to turf; or perhaps a combination of those two. Or maybe a move to real dirt; Santa Anita will be opening for its Winter meet soon, and Crown Over did take the Show on a fast dirt track against stakes company at Pleasanton in July of 2011. Whatever may come, I'll keep on following this horse and reporting back here; not because I'm a sadist (well, maybe a little) but because I'm genuinely curious to see how this story will play out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For those who are new here, Crown Over was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff for $25,000 out of Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields on August 25, a race in which Crown Over left the gate at final odds of 32.2-1. Since the claim, Crown Over has finished in the money for Kasparoff just once.
Saturday, Crown Over competed in Race 6 at Hollywood Park. As was the case in Crown Over's previous race, this was a claiming race ($16k-$14k) for non-winners of two lifetime, run over the it's-not-real-dirt main track. Jockey Joe Talamo again got the mount. One difference to note was that Saturday's race was competed at a distance of six furlongs, while November's contest had been run at six and a half furlongs.
Crown Over went to post Saturday at Final Odds of 5.2-1. As per his usual running style, Crown Over was off a bit slow, and was eleventh (out of thirteen) at first call. Crown Over split horses in midstretch, but had no further response, finishing seventh, a comfortable six and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Tiz Dynamic. Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing seventh Saturday was $350, bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed by Kasparoff for $25,000 to $3,210.
So what's next for Crown Over? Remember, he's a gelding; so retiring him to the breeding shed isn't an option. Perhaps another class drop; or maybe a move back to turf; or perhaps a combination of those two. Or maybe a move to real dirt; Santa Anita will be opening for its Winter meet soon, and Crown Over did take the Show on a fast dirt track against stakes company at Pleasanton in July of 2011. Whatever may come, I'll keep on following this horse and reporting back here; not because I'm a sadist (well, maybe a little) but because I'm genuinely curious to see how this story will play out.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, December 14, 2012
Calculating Place and Show Payouts
In my previous post I explained the basic math behind calculating the payouts for Win wagers; which, in turn, is the same basic formula for calculating payouts for any other single winner result at the track. So if you know how to figure out how much the Number 7 horse will pay to Win in Race 5 at Emerald Downs, you can use those same steps to calculate, for example, how much the 7-1 Exacta or the 7-3 Double will pay.
In this post, I will try to explain how payouts are calculated for multi-winner results; specifically, Place (which, typically, will have two "winners") and Show (which, typically, will have three "winners"; exceptions coming when there is a tie for one of the top spots, officially referred to as a Dead Heat). We'll begin by making sure that we all understand what each wager represents.
When you bet a horse to Place, your horse must finish either first or second in order for you to collect.
When you bet a horse to Show, your horse much finish either first, or second, or third in order for you to collect.
As with all other wagers, Place and Show bets form their own pools; meaning that payouts are determined solely by the amount bet into those specific pools. So, for example, the amount bet on the Number 7 horse to Win is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Place; which, in turn, is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Show.
OK; let's work out a few examples. Suppose Happy Day and It Figures finish one-two in Race 5 at Laurel Park. $25,000 was bet into the Place Pool. What are the payouts?
First Step: Deduct the track take out
First things first; just as with all the other wagers, the race track makes sure that it gets its cut of the money. Let’s again pretend that FDR is still President of the United States, and the track takeout is a mere ten percent. So we’ll deduct ten percent out of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the two Place horses
A review of the tote board shows that $6,500 was bet on Happy Day to Place, while It Figures was backed by $12,750 in the Place Pool.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Simple enough; we just subtract the amount wagered on Happy Day and It Figures from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $19,250 ($6,500 plus $12,750) gives us $3,250, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into two prize funds
This is a step we don't have in the single winner pools. Since there are two Place horses, the profits get divided in half. $3,250 split down the middle gives us $1,625. So $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on It Figures.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
For Happy Day, this means $1,625 gets divided by $6,500, giving us $0.25. The $1,625 prize fund for It Figures gets divided by $12,750, giving us $0.13.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Time for the track to double-dip, which it does by rounding both of those amounts down to the nearest dime (though it should be mentioned that New York, for one, does give the bettors a break in the breakage by only rounding down to the nearest nickel). So Happy Day bettors see their profits shrink from $0.25 to $0.20, while It Figures goes from $0.13 to $0.10.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Since race tracks, traditionally, display Win, Place, and Show wagers per every two dollars bet, we double the profit and add in the initial two dollar wager. That gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $2.40 (($0.20 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
Alright, let's do another one. We'll use the same race, except this time It Figures runs third, getting nosed out at the wire by Unexpected. How does that change the payouts? Well, for starters, those who wagered on It Figures to Place are now losers, collecting nothing but an unpleasant memory. As for Happy Day and Unexpected:
First Step: Deduct the track take out
There's no change in this step; ten percent comes off the top of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the two Place horses
We still have the same $6,500 bet on Happy Day to Place, while Unexpected was backed by just $2,200 in the Place Pool.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
As before, we're subtracting the amount wagered on Happy Day and Unexpected from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $8,700 ($6,500 plus $2,200) gives us $13,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into two prize funds
$13,800 divided by two gives us $6,900. So $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Unexpected.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Those who wagered on Happy Day now have $6,900 to split up among their $6,500 in tickets, which makes for $1.06 . Meanwhile, the $6,900 prize fund for Unexpected gets divided by $2,200, giving us $3.14.
Next Step: Remove breakage
It's good to be the house, as the track takes again, knocking the $1.06 for Happy Day down to an even dollar, while the $3.14 for Unexpected shrinks down to $3.10.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
As before, our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Doubling the profit and adding in the initial two dollar wager gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $4.00 (($1.00 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $8.20 (($3.10 x 2) + $2)
Notice the increase in payout for Happy Day just by virtue of It Figures not finishing in the other Top Two spot. Lesson to be learned: Place bets (and, as we'll see later, Show bets) are more desirable when you have a strong opinion that a well backed horse will not be getting a share of the pool.
Calculating Show payouts follow the same basic steps as above, except there's now three "winners" to be taken care of, instead of just two. So let's work out an example, using the same race as above, with Happy Day, Unexpected, and It Figures crossing the wire in that order. There's $20,000 in the Show pool; let's go!
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$20,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $18,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
Per the tote board, the amounts bet on each horse to Show:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
It Figures: $10,000
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$18,000 minus $16,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $10,000) gives us $1,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into three prize funds
Since there are three Show horses, the profits get divided three ways. $1,800 divided by three is $600.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Happy Day: $600 / $4,800 = $0.125
Unexpected: $600 / $1,400 = $0.43
It Figures: $600 / $10,000 = $0.06
Next Step: Remove breakage
Happy Day drops to $0.10; Unexpected shrinks to $0.40; WAIT! What do we do about It Figures? If we round down to the nearest dime, the wager has no profit.
Well, for It Figures, the track can only round down to $0.05. This is because race tracks must pay out a minimum of five cents to the dollar for winning wagers, regardless of how much is in the pool (more on this momentarily).
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.80 (($0.40 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
And there you go.
I mentioned a few lines ago that race tracks must pay out at least five percent (five cents on the dollar) for every winning wager. Sometimes so much is wagered on a specific horse in a pool (almost always the Show pool) that there isn't enough in the pool to cover all the winning tickets. This is a situation known as a minus pool, meaning that the track is going to lose money on the race, because it will have to dip into its reserves to pay all bettors the amounts that are due.
Let's work out an example of a minus Show pool. We'll use the same race as above, except this time It Figures really figures with the bettors, to the point where the big plungers have wagered heavily on It Figures to finish either first, second, or third. We'll tweak our pool so that, instead of having a Show pool of $20k with $10k of that wagered on It Figures, we now have a Show pool of $50k, with all of the additional $30k having been put down on It Figures.
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$50,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $45,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
Our adjusted tote board now shows the following amounts bet on each horse to Show:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
It Figures: $40,000
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$45,000 minus $46,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $40,000) gives us, well, it doesn't give us anything. Actually, it gives us less than anything, as the result is a negative $1,200. But, profits or no profits, the track must pay the minimum of five percent, or $0.05 for every winning dollar wagered. So we can just skip the remaining steps and cut to the chase:
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Almost all the money was bet on It Figures; but because there were no profits in the pool left to distribute to backers of Happy Day and Unexpected, all three horses pay the same amount for Show, the $2.10 minimum.
Did it make sense to bet on Happy Day and/or Unexpected to Show when there's a minus pool? Well, when deciding upon your answer, keep in mind that in racing, as in real life, things that figure to happen don't always come to pass. Sometimes events that can't miss do, in fact, miss. Sometimes horses like It Figures finish out of the money; and then what? Well, for one thing, it causes those who wagered heavily on It Figures to rethink their life choices. As for the Show payouts:
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$50,000 reduced by ten percent still leaves us $45,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
The amounts on Happy Day and Unexpected remain the same; but Nondescript replaces It Figures:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
Nondescript: $800
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$45,000 minus $7,000 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $800) gives us $38,000, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into three prize funds
$38,000 divided by three is $12,666.67.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Happy Day: $12,666.67 / $4,800 = $2.64
Unexpected: $12,666.67/ $1,400 = $9.05
Nondescript: $12,666.67/ $800 = $15.83
Next Step: Remove breakage
Happy Day drops to $2.60; Unexpected shrinks to $9.00; Nondescript falls to $15.80.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $7.20 (($2.60 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $20.00 (($9.00 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $33.60 (($15.80 x 2) + $2)
Real life examples of such occurrences include last Saturday's Hollywood Starlet Stakes, July's Victory Ride Stakes at Belmont Park, this 2010 Allowance Race at Calder, and 2009's Desert Stormer Handicap. There are many other examples, but these help illustrate how such Show payouts can happen, while reminding us all that there's no such thing as a sure thing.
The steps for calculating Place and Show payouts above work with any payout that involves multiple "winners". For example, if there's a Dead Heat for Win, then Win payouts and the resulting exotic payouts (because there are now two winning Exactas, Trifectas, etc.) are determined using the Place payout steps; the Show payout steps are used when three horses finish in a Dead Heat for Place; and so on.
So now you know all you need to know about how to calculate payouts at the track (well, almost all; we didn't cover consolation Doubles and Pick Threes; that will have to wait for another day). If you have any questions, or if you see (or think you see) an error in my work, please LET ME KNOW and leave a comment below.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
In this post, I will try to explain how payouts are calculated for multi-winner results; specifically, Place (which, typically, will have two "winners") and Show (which, typically, will have three "winners"; exceptions coming when there is a tie for one of the top spots, officially referred to as a Dead Heat). We'll begin by making sure that we all understand what each wager represents.
When you bet a horse to Place, your horse must finish either first or second in order for you to collect.
When you bet a horse to Show, your horse much finish either first, or second, or third in order for you to collect.
As with all other wagers, Place and Show bets form their own pools; meaning that payouts are determined solely by the amount bet into those specific pools. So, for example, the amount bet on the Number 7 horse to Win is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Place; which, in turn, is totally irrelevant to how much the Number 7 horse will pay for Show.
OK; let's work out a few examples. Suppose Happy Day and It Figures finish one-two in Race 5 at Laurel Park. $25,000 was bet into the Place Pool. What are the payouts?
First Step: Deduct the track take out
First things first; just as with all the other wagers, the race track makes sure that it gets its cut of the money. Let’s again pretend that FDR is still President of the United States, and the track takeout is a mere ten percent. So we’ll deduct ten percent out of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the two Place horses
A review of the tote board shows that $6,500 was bet on Happy Day to Place, while It Figures was backed by $12,750 in the Place Pool.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Simple enough; we just subtract the amount wagered on Happy Day and It Figures from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $19,250 ($6,500 plus $12,750) gives us $3,250, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into two prize funds
This is a step we don't have in the single winner pools. Since there are two Place horses, the profits get divided in half. $3,250 split down the middle gives us $1,625. So $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $1,625 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on It Figures.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
For Happy Day, this means $1,625 gets divided by $6,500, giving us $0.25. The $1,625 prize fund for It Figures gets divided by $12,750, giving us $0.13.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Time for the track to double-dip, which it does by rounding both of those amounts down to the nearest dime (though it should be mentioned that New York, for one, does give the bettors a break in the breakage by only rounding down to the nearest nickel). So Happy Day bettors see their profits shrink from $0.25 to $0.20, while It Figures goes from $0.13 to $0.10.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Since race tracks, traditionally, display Win, Place, and Show wagers per every two dollars bet, we double the profit and add in the initial two dollar wager. That gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $2.40 (($0.20 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
Alright, let's do another one. We'll use the same race, except this time It Figures runs third, getting nosed out at the wire by Unexpected. How does that change the payouts? Well, for starters, those who wagered on It Figures to Place are now losers, collecting nothing but an unpleasant memory. As for Happy Day and Unexpected:
First Step: Deduct the track take out
There's no change in this step; ten percent comes off the top of our Gross Place Pool of $25k, giving us a Net Place Pool of $22,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the two Place horses
We still have the same $6,500 bet on Happy Day to Place, while Unexpected was backed by just $2,200 in the Place Pool.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
As before, we're subtracting the amount wagered on Happy Day and Unexpected from our Net Place Pool. So $22,500 minus $8,700 ($6,500 plus $2,200) gives us $13,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into two prize funds
$13,800 divided by two gives us $6,900. So $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Happy Day, while $6,900 will be divided among those who made a Place bet on Unexpected.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Those who wagered on Happy Day now have $6,900 to split up among their $6,500 in tickets, which makes for $1.06 . Meanwhile, the $6,900 prize fund for Unexpected gets divided by $2,200, giving us $3.14.
Next Step: Remove breakage
It's good to be the house, as the track takes again, knocking the $1.06 for Happy Day down to an even dollar, while the $3.14 for Unexpected shrinks down to $3.10.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
As before, our calculations have computed the profits for each dollar wagered. Doubling the profit and adding in the initial two dollar wager gives us Place payouts of:
Happy Day $4.00 (($1.00 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $8.20 (($3.10 x 2) + $2)
Notice the increase in payout for Happy Day just by virtue of It Figures not finishing in the other Top Two spot. Lesson to be learned: Place bets (and, as we'll see later, Show bets) are more desirable when you have a strong opinion that a well backed horse will not be getting a share of the pool.
Calculating Show payouts follow the same basic steps as above, except there's now three "winners" to be taken care of, instead of just two. So let's work out an example, using the same race as above, with Happy Day, Unexpected, and It Figures crossing the wire in that order. There's $20,000 in the Show pool; let's go!
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$20,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $18,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
Per the tote board, the amounts bet on each horse to Show:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
It Figures: $10,000
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$18,000 minus $16,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $10,000) gives us $1,800, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into three prize funds
Since there are three Show horses, the profits get divided three ways. $1,800 divided by three is $600.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Happy Day: $600 / $4,800 = $0.125
Unexpected: $600 / $1,400 = $0.43
It Figures: $600 / $10,000 = $0.06
Next Step: Remove breakage
Happy Day drops to $0.10; Unexpected shrinks to $0.40; WAIT! What do we do about It Figures? If we round down to the nearest dime, the wager has no profit.
Well, for It Figures, the track can only round down to $0.05. This is because race tracks must pay out a minimum of five cents to the dollar for winning wagers, regardless of how much is in the pool (more on this momentarily).
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $2.20 (($0.10 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.80 (($0.40 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
And there you go.
I mentioned a few lines ago that race tracks must pay out at least five percent (five cents on the dollar) for every winning wager. Sometimes so much is wagered on a specific horse in a pool (almost always the Show pool) that there isn't enough in the pool to cover all the winning tickets. This is a situation known as a minus pool, meaning that the track is going to lose money on the race, because it will have to dip into its reserves to pay all bettors the amounts that are due.
Let's work out an example of a minus Show pool. We'll use the same race as above, except this time It Figures really figures with the bettors, to the point where the big plungers have wagered heavily on It Figures to finish either first, second, or third. We'll tweak our pool so that, instead of having a Show pool of $20k with $10k of that wagered on It Figures, we now have a Show pool of $50k, with all of the additional $30k having been put down on It Figures.
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$50,000 reduced by ten percent leaves us $45,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
Our adjusted tote board now shows the following amounts bet on each horse to Show:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
It Figures: $40,000
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$45,000 minus $46,200 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $40,000) gives us, well, it doesn't give us anything. Actually, it gives us less than anything, as the result is a negative $1,200. But, profits or no profits, the track must pay the minimum of five percent, or $0.05 for every winning dollar wagered. So we can just skip the remaining steps and cut to the chase:
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $2.10 (($0.05 x 2) + $2)
Almost all the money was bet on It Figures; but because there were no profits in the pool left to distribute to backers of Happy Day and Unexpected, all three horses pay the same amount for Show, the $2.10 minimum.
Did it make sense to bet on Happy Day and/or Unexpected to Show when there's a minus pool? Well, when deciding upon your answer, keep in mind that in racing, as in real life, things that figure to happen don't always come to pass. Sometimes events that can't miss do, in fact, miss. Sometimes horses like It Figures finish out of the money; and then what? Well, for one thing, it causes those who wagered heavily on It Figures to rethink their life choices. As for the Show payouts:
First Step: Deduct the track take out
$50,000 reduced by ten percent still leaves us $45,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the three Show horses
The amounts on Happy Day and Unexpected remain the same; but Nondescript replaces It Figures:
Happy Day: $4,800
Unexpected: $1,400
Nondescript: $800
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
$45,000 minus $7,000 ($4,800 plus $1,400 plus $800) gives us $38,000, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Net Step: Divide the total profit amount into three prize funds
$38,000 divided by three is $12,666.67.
Next Step: Divide each prize fund equally among all winning tickets for each horse
Happy Day: $12,666.67 / $4,800 = $2.64
Unexpected: $12,666.67/ $1,400 = $9.05
Nondescript: $12,666.67/ $800 = $15.83
Next Step: Remove breakage
Happy Day drops to $2.60; Unexpected shrinks to $9.00; Nondescript falls to $15.80.
Final Step: Double each amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Happy Day $7.20 (($2.60 x 2) + $2)
Unexpected $20.00 (($9.00 x 2) + $2)
It Figures $33.60 (($15.80 x 2) + $2)
Real life examples of such occurrences include last Saturday's Hollywood Starlet Stakes, July's Victory Ride Stakes at Belmont Park, this 2010 Allowance Race at Calder, and 2009's Desert Stormer Handicap. There are many other examples, but these help illustrate how such Show payouts can happen, while reminding us all that there's no such thing as a sure thing.
The steps for calculating Place and Show payouts above work with any payout that involves multiple "winners". For example, if there's a Dead Heat for Win, then Win payouts and the resulting exotic payouts (because there are now two winning Exactas, Trifectas, etc.) are determined using the Place payout steps; the Show payout steps are used when three horses finish in a Dead Heat for Place; and so on.
So now you know all you need to know about how to calculate payouts at the track (well, almost all; we didn't cover consolation Doubles and Pick Threes; that will have to wait for another day). If you have any questions, or if you see (or think you see) an error in my work, please LET ME KNOW and leave a comment below.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, December 10, 2012
Jumping Into the Pool - How Payouts Are Calculated
When I began this blog, I figured that I would primarily be communicating with my friends and buds, especially my fellow members of what is affectionately known as The Derby Crew; seasoned horse players all. But as I look at the various search terms that lead others here, I see that there are many that are relatively new to the game that are searching for some basic information as to how it all works. With that in mind, I thought it might be a good idea to have a post describing one the most basic aspects of the game: how payouts are calculated.
Let's start here: nearly all wagering on horse racing in North America (and many other parts of the world) is parimutuel - a nice French word that basically means that we're betting among ourselves, rather than against the house (as with, say, casino games like Blackjack). Parimutuel wagering means that the odds (and, therefore, the payouts) on any given wager on the menu is determined by the amount of money that has been bet on that occurrence. For example, the amount that a horse pays to win in any given race is determined by the amount of money bet on that particular horse to win compared to all the money bet on each of the other horses in the race to win. Likewise, a Pick Four payout is determined by the amount of money wagered on that specific Pick Four combination compared to the total amount wagered on all the other possible Pick Four combinations.
Basically, parimutuel wagering means that the more money that is wagered on a specific outcome, the less that outcome will pay, should it occur. A horse with a lot of money bet on it to win will pay much less than a horse with only a small amount of money wagered on it.
Since payouts are based upon the percentage of money bet on a specific occurrence (i.e., Horse A will win) versus the total amount bet on all occurrences, parimutuel odds are in a constant state of flux, from the moment wagering begins right up until the betting is officially closed. And since math takes time (even with computers) that's why you'll often see odds change while the race is being run. It doesn't mean that folks are still betting; but rather that the final calculations can't be made until the total amount in the pool is known, and that can't be known until betting has closed (an event that is simultaneous with the gates opening and the race beginning).
The next concept to understand is that all wager types (i.e., Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Pick Three, etc., etc.) all form their own totally independent pools. That means that the odds on Horse A to Win is totally meaningless to the odds that Horse A will Place; which, in turn, is totally meaningless to how much the Horse A and Horse B Exacta will pay.
OK; not totally meaningless. Humans being human, it stands to reason that if a large percentage of the money in the Win Pool is wagered on Horse A, then a large percentage of the money in, say, the Exacta Pool will be wagered on combinations that have Horse A on top. But the main point holds true: each pool is totally independent; no pool payout is used to determine the payout in any other pool. And, of course, humans don't always behave logically; so every once in a while you'll see something like what happened in Race 7 at Calder on August 18, when Daddys Jewel paid $3.80 to Place; the same amount that she paid to Win.
Let's see if working out some examples help make everything clear. Let's say that Race 3 at the no longer in existence Sportsman's Park is won by Some Colt. There was $100,000 bet into the Win Pool. How do we determine how much Some Colt paid to Win?
First Step: Deduct the track take out
The Take Out is the amount that the track keeps for itself out of each of the pools; this is the money that the racetrack uses to pay its bills, chief of which is the purse money that gets paid out to the victors in each event. Let’s pretend that FDR is still President of the United States, and the track takeout is a mere ten percent (here's a more recent accounting of current track take out rates at various racetracks throughout the U.S. While the chart is somewhat out of date, it will at least give you an idea of how much of the wagering money the racing facilities keep for themselves). So we’ll deduct ten percent out of our Gross Win Pool of $100k, giving us a Net Win Pool of $90,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the Winner
A review of the tote board shows that $23,000 was bet on Some Colt to Win.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Simple enough; we just subtract the amount wagered on Some Colt from our Net Win Pool. Removing $23k from $90k gives us $67k, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Next Step: Divide the profits equally among all winning tickets
We've got $67k in profits to be split among $23k worth of winning tickets. Dividing $67,000 by $23,000 gives us $2.91.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Oh, you thought the track was done dipping its hand in the till, did you? No, not yet; now the track will round each winning share down to the nearest dime (some tracks, such as New York, will give the players a break and just round down to the nearest nickel). With that, the $2.91 profit becomes $2.90.
Next Step: Double the amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Since it's traditional to state Win (and most other) payouts in terms of each $2 bet, we'll double our one dollar profit calculations, and then add in the original $2.00 wagered (since that gets returned to the winners; after all, their bets didn't lose). $2.90 doubled is $5.80; plus $2.00 gives us $7.80, which is what Some Colt pays to Win.
The steps for determining Win payouts are the same steps used for all other single-winner wagers; that is to say, every payout except Place (which has two "winning" wagers) and Show (which has three "winning" wagers) is determined the same way as above.
Let's work another example to demonstrate. Let's say the Race 3 Trifecta was Some Colt / Second Best / Third in the Bunch. If Race 3 had a total of ten horses entered, then the winning Trifecta was one out of 720 possible Trifecta combinations (10 x 9 x 8). An interesting piece of information, but meaningless to what we want to know: What did it pay?
We'll start our calculations by stating that $50,000 was bet into the Trifecta Pool
First Step: Deduct the track take out
For this example, let's use a more realistic 25% track take out. Removing twenty-five percent from the Gross Trifecta Pool of $50,000 gives us a Net Trifecta Pool of $37,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the winning Trifecta combination
The Some Colt / Second Best / Third in the Bunch Trifecta combination (in that order; Trifecta bets with those horses in any other order are as much losers as those combinations containing other horses) had a grand total of $725 bet on it to come to pass.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Deducting the $725 bet by the winners from the Net Trifecta Pool of $37,500 gives us $36,775 to be divided among the winners.
Next Step: Divide the profits equally among all winning tickets
$36,775 divided by $725 is $50.72.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Once again the race track double dips, in this case making the profit per dollar $50.70.
Next Step: Double the amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
That is, if we want to state the payout in terms of $2 bets. While traditional to do so for Win, Place, and Show wagers, it's quite common for exotic wagers, such as Trifectas, to be stated in terms of $1 bets. To be consistent, we'll state the $2 payout of $103.40 ($50.70 + $50.70 + $2.00), though giving the $1 payout of $51.70 ($50.70 + $1.00) is perfectly acceptable.
And there you go. As I mentioned above, calculating Pick Six, Pick Four, Pick Three, Daily Double, Exacta, Quinella, etc., etc., payouts follow these same basic steps. The exceptions are Place and Show wagers, which I'll cover in my next post sometime later this week.
If you have any questions, or if you see (or think you see) someplace where I messed up, or if everything above is clear as mud LET ME KNOW and post a comment below.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Let's start here: nearly all wagering on horse racing in North America (and many other parts of the world) is parimutuel - a nice French word that basically means that we're betting among ourselves, rather than against the house (as with, say, casino games like Blackjack). Parimutuel wagering means that the odds (and, therefore, the payouts) on any given wager on the menu is determined by the amount of money that has been bet on that occurrence. For example, the amount that a horse pays to win in any given race is determined by the amount of money bet on that particular horse to win compared to all the money bet on each of the other horses in the race to win. Likewise, a Pick Four payout is determined by the amount of money wagered on that specific Pick Four combination compared to the total amount wagered on all the other possible Pick Four combinations.
Basically, parimutuel wagering means that the more money that is wagered on a specific outcome, the less that outcome will pay, should it occur. A horse with a lot of money bet on it to win will pay much less than a horse with only a small amount of money wagered on it.
Since payouts are based upon the percentage of money bet on a specific occurrence (i.e., Horse A will win) versus the total amount bet on all occurrences, parimutuel odds are in a constant state of flux, from the moment wagering begins right up until the betting is officially closed. And since math takes time (even with computers) that's why you'll often see odds change while the race is being run. It doesn't mean that folks are still betting; but rather that the final calculations can't be made until the total amount in the pool is known, and that can't be known until betting has closed (an event that is simultaneous with the gates opening and the race beginning).
The next concept to understand is that all wager types (i.e., Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Pick Three, etc., etc.) all form their own totally independent pools. That means that the odds on Horse A to Win is totally meaningless to the odds that Horse A will Place; which, in turn, is totally meaningless to how much the Horse A and Horse B Exacta will pay.
OK; not totally meaningless. Humans being human, it stands to reason that if a large percentage of the money in the Win Pool is wagered on Horse A, then a large percentage of the money in, say, the Exacta Pool will be wagered on combinations that have Horse A on top. But the main point holds true: each pool is totally independent; no pool payout is used to determine the payout in any other pool. And, of course, humans don't always behave logically; so every once in a while you'll see something like what happened in Race 7 at Calder on August 18, when Daddys Jewel paid $3.80 to Place; the same amount that she paid to Win.
Let's see if working out some examples help make everything clear. Let's say that Race 3 at the no longer in existence Sportsman's Park is won by Some Colt. There was $100,000 bet into the Win Pool. How do we determine how much Some Colt paid to Win?
First Step: Deduct the track take out
The Take Out is the amount that the track keeps for itself out of each of the pools; this is the money that the racetrack uses to pay its bills, chief of which is the purse money that gets paid out to the victors in each event. Let’s pretend that FDR is still President of the United States, and the track takeout is a mere ten percent (here's a more recent accounting of current track take out rates at various racetracks throughout the U.S. While the chart is somewhat out of date, it will at least give you an idea of how much of the wagering money the racing facilities keep for themselves). So we’ll deduct ten percent out of our Gross Win Pool of $100k, giving us a Net Win Pool of $90,000.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the Winner
A review of the tote board shows that $23,000 was bet on Some Colt to Win.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Simple enough; we just subtract the amount wagered on Some Colt from our Net Win Pool. Removing $23k from $90k gives us $67k, which is the amount of profit to be split up among the winners.
Next Step: Divide the profits equally among all winning tickets
We've got $67k in profits to be split among $23k worth of winning tickets. Dividing $67,000 by $23,000 gives us $2.91.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Oh, you thought the track was done dipping its hand in the till, did you? No, not yet; now the track will round each winning share down to the nearest dime (some tracks, such as New York, will give the players a break and just round down to the nearest nickel). With that, the $2.91 profit becomes $2.90.
Next Step: Double the amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
Since it's traditional to state Win (and most other) payouts in terms of each $2 bet, we'll double our one dollar profit calculations, and then add in the original $2.00 wagered (since that gets returned to the winners; after all, their bets didn't lose). $2.90 doubled is $5.80; plus $2.00 gives us $7.80, which is what Some Colt pays to Win.
The steps for determining Win payouts are the same steps used for all other single-winner wagers; that is to say, every payout except Place (which has two "winning" wagers) and Show (which has three "winning" wagers) is determined the same way as above.
Let's work another example to demonstrate. Let's say the Race 3 Trifecta was Some Colt / Second Best / Third in the Bunch. If Race 3 had a total of ten horses entered, then the winning Trifecta was one out of 720 possible Trifecta combinations (10 x 9 x 8). An interesting piece of information, but meaningless to what we want to know: What did it pay?
We'll start our calculations by stating that $50,000 was bet into the Trifecta Pool
First Step: Deduct the track take out
For this example, let's use a more realistic 25% track take out. Removing twenty-five percent from the Gross Trifecta Pool of $50,000 gives us a Net Trifecta Pool of $37,500.
Next Step: Determine how much was wagered on the winning Trifecta combination
The Some Colt / Second Best / Third in the Bunch Trifecta combination (in that order; Trifecta bets with those horses in any other order are as much losers as those combinations containing other horses) had a grand total of $725 bet on it to come to pass.
Net Step: Determine the profit amount to be divided among the winning bettors
Deducting the $725 bet by the winners from the Net Trifecta Pool of $37,500 gives us $36,775 to be divided among the winners.
Next Step: Divide the profits equally among all winning tickets
$36,775 divided by $725 is $50.72.
Next Step: Remove breakage
Once again the race track double dips, in this case making the profit per dollar $50.70.
Next Step: Double the amount and add two dollars to determine payouts
That is, if we want to state the payout in terms of $2 bets. While traditional to do so for Win, Place, and Show wagers, it's quite common for exotic wagers, such as Trifectas, to be stated in terms of $1 bets. To be consistent, we'll state the $2 payout of $103.40 ($50.70 + $50.70 + $2.00), though giving the $1 payout of $51.70 ($50.70 + $1.00) is perfectly acceptable.
And there you go. As I mentioned above, calculating Pick Six, Pick Four, Pick Three, Daily Double, Exacta, Quinella, etc., etc., payouts follow these same basic steps. The exceptions are Place and Show wagers, which I'll cover in my next post sometime later this week.
If you have any questions, or if you see (or think you see) someplace where I messed up, or if everything above is clear as mud LET ME KNOW and post a comment below.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
12/2/12 BHP - A Tale of Two Beats
Losing is a big part of this game, as anyone who's played it for more than twenty minutes can tell you. As in all of life's endeavors, it's important to learn what you can from your setbacks, in the hopes that, at the very least, you won't make the same mistakes twice. However, just like the Billy Preston song "Will It Go Round In Circles", where there are stories without morals and dances without steps, sometimes in racing there are beats without lessons. Here's what I mean:
Race 7 at Hollywood Park on Sunday was a Maiden Claiming ($30k-$28k) for two year olds run at a distance of seven furlongs over the main synthetic track (in fact, due to the weather, all of BHP's races Sunday were contested over the main track). I decided to make my key horse the #10 Money Makin Sam (Final Odds 5.1-1). I liked the improvement he had shown in his Beyer Speed Figure in his previous race compared to his first two efforts, especially considering that it came when he had stretched out to six and a half furlongs; I figured it showed that he might like the added half panel. I liked the class drop, as his previous race had been a Maiden $50k. I liked that he had Doug O'Neill as his trainer.
Unfortunately, it didn't pan out. Money Makin Sam stalked early, took the lead at the top of the stretch, but couldn't hold on, finishing fourth, four and a half lengths back.
I did have the winner, # 6 Salah Champ, correctly pegged as a contender; indeed, I had used him in my exotics, cashing on the Exacta with Salah Champ on top of # 12 Judge Carr (5.8-1); though, as neither was my key, not to full effect.
In retrospect, this was a poorly played race on my part. Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, for a myriad of reasons. He had the best last out Beyer in the field (in a 6.5 furlong race over this same track), and he had Placed his last time out against this same class level. Salah Champ's trainer, Mike Mitchell, hit with high marks on all the relevant trainer angles (Two Years Old: 24% Winning Percentage; Synthetic Surface: 31%; Sprints: 26%; Maiden Claiming: 28%; with Jockey Joe Talamo: 33%). Salah Champ had the second best Tomlinson Rating in the field for the distance and the second best Wet Tomlinson in the pack (yeah, I know they call synthetic surfaces "all-weather"; but just because they call it that doesn't make it so; or why would they have to cancel dates when there's too much water on the track?).
The bottom line: Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, and I should have recognized him as such. Failing to do so meant that at the end of the race my bankroll was lighter than it should have been. Recognizing legitimate favorites is one of the key components to success at handicapping, primarily because playing against them is a sure way to suffer consistent defeats.
Lesson learned.
Sunday's Race 9 at BHP was also a Maiden Claiming, but for Fillies and Mares (three years old and up) and with a lesser price tag of $20k. The race was run over a distance of six and a half furlongs over the main synthetic track.
I liked the favorite, # 13 Bwanadada (1.0-1), who was making the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming; I made her my key. I also liked the # 8 Letthepartybegin (5.1-1) who, like Bwanadada, was making the big drop (though not quite so big, as Letthepartybegin was coming from state bred MSW company). I figured these two as the class of the field, with Bwanadada having a clear edge over her rival. Also liked # 10 Hello Stormy (11.5-1), a horse who had shown good early speed in her prior contests, and who (not so incidentally) had a very attractive price. I put a saver wager on her, and tossed all three into my exotics.
Now, before going further, it needs to be pointed out that in the previous eight races run at BHP Sunday (again, all over the main synthetic track) all eight had been won by a horse that was either on the lead, or within a length of the lead, at the top of the stretch. Considering two of those eight had won at double-digit odds (Major Truth in Race 3 and Cloudy Moon in Race 5) it seemed clear that there was a track bias in effect that was putting closers, especially deep closers, at a serious disadvantage.
So, back to Race 9: Letthepartybegin reared at the start and was through at that point; she finished ninth, over twenty lengths back. But at the top of the stretch, Hello Stormy and Bwanadada were running one-two; I’ve got this baby cold.
Or so I thought.
On a day where eight races had been won by horses no further back than a length of the lead at the top of the stretch, # 3 English Puddin (17.1-1); a horse who had never finished in the money in four career starts; a horse who had finished fifth, over five lengths back her last time out (in a race over this same track against this same class level); a horse whose last out Beyer was sixth-best in this field; a horse whose trainer, Jorge Periban, has a 7% Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming races, and a 6% Winning Percentage in sprints; a horse who was sold at auction as a yearling for $15,000 less than the stud fee it took to have her foaled; comes from fourth place, five lengths back at the top of the stretch to finish first, a nose in front of Bwanadada.
There is no lesson to be learned here; there is no insight to be gained from reviewing the Past Performances and performing a postmortem over the charts. When you get beat like that, losing to a horse that had no chance on paper and who had to overcome a pronounced track bias in order to win, the only thing you can do is just shrug your shoulders and say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 at Hollywood Park on Sunday was a Maiden Claiming ($30k-$28k) for two year olds run at a distance of seven furlongs over the main synthetic track (in fact, due to the weather, all of BHP's races Sunday were contested over the main track). I decided to make my key horse the #10 Money Makin Sam (Final Odds 5.1-1). I liked the improvement he had shown in his Beyer Speed Figure in his previous race compared to his first two efforts, especially considering that it came when he had stretched out to six and a half furlongs; I figured it showed that he might like the added half panel. I liked the class drop, as his previous race had been a Maiden $50k. I liked that he had Doug O'Neill as his trainer.
Unfortunately, it didn't pan out. Money Makin Sam stalked early, took the lead at the top of the stretch, but couldn't hold on, finishing fourth, four and a half lengths back.
I did have the winner, # 6 Salah Champ, correctly pegged as a contender; indeed, I had used him in my exotics, cashing on the Exacta with Salah Champ on top of # 12 Judge Carr (5.8-1); though, as neither was my key, not to full effect.
In retrospect, this was a poorly played race on my part. Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, for a myriad of reasons. He had the best last out Beyer in the field (in a 6.5 furlong race over this same track), and he had Placed his last time out against this same class level. Salah Champ's trainer, Mike Mitchell, hit with high marks on all the relevant trainer angles (Two Years Old: 24% Winning Percentage; Synthetic Surface: 31%; Sprints: 26%; Maiden Claiming: 28%; with Jockey Joe Talamo: 33%). Salah Champ had the second best Tomlinson Rating in the field for the distance and the second best Wet Tomlinson in the pack (yeah, I know they call synthetic surfaces "all-weather"; but just because they call it that doesn't make it so; or why would they have to cancel dates when there's too much water on the track?).
The bottom line: Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, and I should have recognized him as such. Failing to do so meant that at the end of the race my bankroll was lighter than it should have been. Recognizing legitimate favorites is one of the key components to success at handicapping, primarily because playing against them is a sure way to suffer consistent defeats.
Lesson learned.
Sunday's Race 9 at BHP was also a Maiden Claiming, but for Fillies and Mares (three years old and up) and with a lesser price tag of $20k. The race was run over a distance of six and a half furlongs over the main synthetic track.
I liked the favorite, # 13 Bwanadada (1.0-1), who was making the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming; I made her my key. I also liked the # 8 Letthepartybegin (5.1-1) who, like Bwanadada, was making the big drop (though not quite so big, as Letthepartybegin was coming from state bred MSW company). I figured these two as the class of the field, with Bwanadada having a clear edge over her rival. Also liked # 10 Hello Stormy (11.5-1), a horse who had shown good early speed in her prior contests, and who (not so incidentally) had a very attractive price. I put a saver wager on her, and tossed all three into my exotics.
Now, before going further, it needs to be pointed out that in the previous eight races run at BHP Sunday (again, all over the main synthetic track) all eight had been won by a horse that was either on the lead, or within a length of the lead, at the top of the stretch. Considering two of those eight had won at double-digit odds (Major Truth in Race 3 and Cloudy Moon in Race 5) it seemed clear that there was a track bias in effect that was putting closers, especially deep closers, at a serious disadvantage.
So, back to Race 9: Letthepartybegin reared at the start and was through at that point; she finished ninth, over twenty lengths back. But at the top of the stretch, Hello Stormy and Bwanadada were running one-two; I’ve got this baby cold.
Or so I thought.
On a day where eight races had been won by horses no further back than a length of the lead at the top of the stretch, # 3 English Puddin (17.1-1); a horse who had never finished in the money in four career starts; a horse who had finished fifth, over five lengths back her last time out (in a race over this same track against this same class level); a horse whose last out Beyer was sixth-best in this field; a horse whose trainer, Jorge Periban, has a 7% Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming races, and a 6% Winning Percentage in sprints; a horse who was sold at auction as a yearling for $15,000 less than the stud fee it took to have her foaled; comes from fourth place, five lengths back at the top of the stretch to finish first, a nose in front of Bwanadada.
There is no lesson to be learned here; there is no insight to be gained from reviewing the Past Performances and performing a postmortem over the charts. When you get beat like that, losing to a horse that had no chance on paper and who had to overcome a pronounced track bias in order to win, the only thing you can do is just shrug your shoulders and say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 29, 2012
14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge
For those of you who like your action cheap: Registration is now open for the 14th Annual Brisnet.com Online Handicapping Challenge. Registration is free; all that is required is that you be a Brisnet member, and membership is free. Brisnet will provide free Ultimate Past Performances for every contest race. Participation is free, as results are determined based upon a mythical two dollar Win and Place wager on your selections.
So for anyone looking for reward without the risk, this is a fine opportunity to test your handicapping skills without having to invest anything more than your time. The contest date is Saturday, December 15. The Grand Prize winner gets an entry into the 2013 Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas as well as $1,000 in cash and a $300 Brisnet.com credit.
Full details are available here. Good luck to all who choose to compete.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So for anyone looking for reward without the risk, this is a fine opportunity to test your handicapping skills without having to invest anything more than your time. The contest date is Saturday, December 15. The Grand Prize winner gets an entry into the 2013 Horse Player World Series at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas as well as $1,000 in cash and a $300 Brisnet.com credit.
Full details are available here. Good luck to all who choose to compete.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 25, 2012
11/25/12 BHP - Race 6 - Results
Appealing Tale (Final Odds 7.8-1) made a tremendous late run in Sunday's Race 6 at BHP, making up ten lengths in the final two furlongs of the six furlong sprint; but it wasn't enough, as Appealing Tale finished fourth, two and three quarter lengths behind the winner, Distinctiv Passion (3.1-1). Belvin took the Place (2.2-1) while Manando (2.6-1) finished third.
So if you were smart enough to take the four horses in the field of eleven that I mentioned in my preview and box them in a dime Superfecta, your $2.40 investment returned $16.67. And if you were smarter still, you ignored my selection and boxed the other three horses for a buck in the Trifecta, getting back $41.40 for your six dollar bet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Race Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
So if you were smart enough to take the four horses in the field of eleven that I mentioned in my preview and box them in a dime Superfecta, your $2.40 investment returned $16.67. And if you were smarter still, you ignored my selection and boxed the other three horses for a buck in the Trifecta, getting back $41.40 for your six dollar bet.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the Daily Race Form version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/25/12 BHP - Race 6 - Preview
Race 6 at Hollywood Park Sunday is a Maiden Special Weight contest for two years olds, scheduled to be run at a distance of six furlongs over the main make believe dirt track. The race has drawn a field of eleven, of which all but two (# 5 Distinctiv Passion (ML 3-1) and # 11 Manando (ML 5-2)) are first time starters.
The horse I have my eye on here is # 6 Appealing Tale (Morning Line 6-1). He has the best Tomlinson Rating (395) and the best Brisnet Rating (112, tied with # 10 Belvin (ML 6-1)) for the distance in this field. Offspring of his sire, Tale of the Cat, win approximately 17% of their debuts. The tandem of Jockey Garrett Gomez and Trainer Peter Miller has been clicking for a Winning Percentage above 30% with an ROI of over three dollars. Appealing Tale also shows an unbroken string of weekly workouts beginning September 24.
Granted, Miller does better when he debuts his horses in Maiden Claimers rather than MSWs; and going up against debuting two year olds from both Baffert and O'Neill is no easy row to hoe; but I think Appealing Tale is a horse that could be live at a price.
Post Time for Race 6 at Hollywood Park is 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The horse I have my eye on here is # 6 Appealing Tale (Morning Line 6-1). He has the best Tomlinson Rating (395) and the best Brisnet Rating (112, tied with # 10 Belvin (ML 6-1)) for the distance in this field. Offspring of his sire, Tale of the Cat, win approximately 17% of their debuts. The tandem of Jockey Garrett Gomez and Trainer Peter Miller has been clicking for a Winning Percentage above 30% with an ROI of over three dollars. Appealing Tale also shows an unbroken string of weekly workouts beginning September 24.
Granted, Miller does better when he debuts his horses in Maiden Claimers rather than MSWs; and going up against debuting two year olds from both Baffert and O'Neill is no easy row to hoe; but I think Appealing Tale is a horse that could be live at a price.
Post Time for Race 6 at Hollywood Park is 3:06 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 24, 2012
11/23/12 GG Race 8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel is one of the longshot claims that we've been following on this blog since Trainer Victor Trujillo scooped him up out of Race 5 at Golden Gate Fields on August 26. Since that race, a $4,000 Claiming for non-winners of two lifetime races (NW2L), City Chapel has been competing, and competing well, against higher class competition. He took the Place October 8 and again October 20, both times running with a price tag double that for which he had been purchased; in the former race against restricted company (NW2L) but in the latter against an open (unrestricted) field.
On Friday City Chapel again competed as part of a field of unrestricted $8,000 Claimers, in Race 8 at Golden Gate. Like his previous race on October 20, Friday's contest was run at a distance of eight furlongs over some California grass. City Chapel broke sixth from the gate, and, according to the chart caller, was boxed in from the half-mile pole, not getting clear until mid-stretch, at which point he had nothing left to offer. City Chapel finished third, less than two lengths behind the winner, Outdoorsman Gene, paying $3.20 to Show. City Chapel's share of Friday's purse for finishing third was $1440.00, bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for four thousand dollars to $6,150.00.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Friday's race is available here, while those who prefer their charts Daily Racing Form style may view theirs here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
On Friday City Chapel again competed as part of a field of unrestricted $8,000 Claimers, in Race 8 at Golden Gate. Like his previous race on October 20, Friday's contest was run at a distance of eight furlongs over some California grass. City Chapel broke sixth from the gate, and, according to the chart caller, was boxed in from the half-mile pole, not getting clear until mid-stretch, at which point he had nothing left to offer. City Chapel finished third, less than two lengths behind the winner, Outdoorsman Gene, paying $3.20 to Show. City Chapel's share of Friday's purse for finishing third was $1440.00, bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for four thousand dollars to $6,150.00.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Friday's race is available here, while those who prefer their charts Daily Racing Form style may view theirs here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 22, 2012
11/21/12 CD Race 8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Applauding found her way back to the starting gate, and shortly thereafter found her way back to the Winner's Circle, crossing the finish line a length and a quarter ahead of five rivals in Race 8 at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. Making her first start in almost a year, Applauding (Final Odds 0.5-1) drifted out at the start, set the pace, battled into the stretch, and won driving, paying $3.00 / $2.20 / $2.10.
While it wasn't the dominating performance that her first two victories had been, Applauding displayed the heart of a competitor, battling Georgie's Angel (winner of last year's Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes) into the stretch before leaving that one in her wake. Applauding's final time of 1:10.84 for the six furlongs seems somewhat less than impressive, especially when compared to the 1:10.92 Statesboro Blues put up in covering the same distance over the same track three days earlier while winning an $8k NW2L Claiming Race. Of course, those are raw times; I haven't yet seen what Speed Figure (Beyer or otherwise) Applauding earned for her effort; it's possible that they may tell a different tale.
So what's next for this three year old filly? Jennie Rees, in this article in The Courier-Journal, quotes Trainer Al Stall as saying that he'll be taking Applauding to Oaklawn Park for their winter meet (for those who like to speculate, here's Oaklawn's 2013 Stakes Schedule - note the American Beauty Stakes on January 20; again, just speculating). If Applauding runs her next race at Oaklawn, it will make four different tracks for each of her four career starts.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The important thing for now is that this talented filly has made her way back onto the racetrack. Here's hoping she has continued success.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Wednesday's race is available here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events can be seen here. And be sure to check out the video of Wednesday's contest, which may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
While it wasn't the dominating performance that her first two victories had been, Applauding displayed the heart of a competitor, battling Georgie's Angel (winner of last year's Grade 3 Schuylerville Stakes) into the stretch before leaving that one in her wake. Applauding's final time of 1:10.84 for the six furlongs seems somewhat less than impressive, especially when compared to the 1:10.92 Statesboro Blues put up in covering the same distance over the same track three days earlier while winning an $8k NW2L Claiming Race. Of course, those are raw times; I haven't yet seen what Speed Figure (Beyer or otherwise) Applauding earned for her effort; it's possible that they may tell a different tale.
So what's next for this three year old filly? Jennie Rees, in this article in The Courier-Journal, quotes Trainer Al Stall as saying that he'll be taking Applauding to Oaklawn Park for their winter meet (for those who like to speculate, here's Oaklawn's 2013 Stakes Schedule - note the American Beauty Stakes on January 20; again, just speculating). If Applauding runs her next race at Oaklawn, it will make four different tracks for each of her four career starts.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The important thing for now is that this talented filly has made her way back onto the racetrack. Here's hoping she has continued success.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of Wednesday's race is available here, while the Daily Racing Form version of events can be seen here. And be sure to check out the video of Wednesday's contest, which may be viewed here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving Day is a jewel, to set in the hearts of honest men; but be careful that you do not take the day, and leave out the gratitude."
~ E.P. Powell
We can always find something to be thankful for, and there may be reasons why we ought to be thankful for even those dispensations which appear dark and frowning.
— Albert Barnes
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Applauding Entered to Race Again
It's the moment we've all been waiting for (OK; it's the moment I've been waiting for): Applauding has been entered in Race 8 at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, November 21.
Here's a not-so-brief recap to bring everyone up to speed: Thirteen months ago, Applauding, then a two year old filly, set a new track record at Keeneland in her debut, finishing nine lengths ahead of Sacristy. Applauding made her real dirt debut seven weeks later in her second career start, winning by six lengths at Final Odds of 0.1-1.
Applauding was then entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes in January and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (and was the Morning Line favorite in both) but ran in neither. Colic-like symptoms were blamed for her scratch from the former, while she was scratched from the latter because Trainer Al Stall saw something in her workout that he didn't like.
And then came nothing. Applauding spent the next few months just handing out at Clairborne Farm in Kentucky. Quoting Al Stall:
"There's nothing really wrong with her. There was nothing bony, nothing to speak of. We're going to regroup on her in thirty days, and by that time I'll get up to Kentucky, so I can get out and look at her. She was eating everything in sight down here, but I had trouble with her weight."
Applauding returned to track workouts July 28, breezing three furlongs at Keeneland in 38.2 (22/28). She did three furlongs again on August 5, then four furlongs on each of the next five Saturdays. She then took a break, not working again until Columbus Day. Her works have been steady since:
10/08 - Kee - 4F - 49.6 - 16/28
10/14 - Kee - 4F - 48.6 - 17/32
10/20 - Kee - 4F - 47.4 - 1/45
10/28 - CD - 4F - 48.2 - 2/77
11/03 - CD - 4F - 49.6 - 29/80 (from the gate)
11/10 - CD - 5F - 62.4 - 33/48
11/16 - CD - 4F - 49.0 - 12/35
Of course, as her past history shows, the fact that Applauding is entered in a race is no guarantee that she will actually run. And, needless to say, if she does run, there's no guarantee that she'll show the same form that she did when she last competed, nearly one year ago. But I, for one, am thrilled at the prospect of this filly displaying her talent on the track again, and am hopeful that she'll reach the heights that she seemed destined for as a two year old.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Here's a not-so-brief recap to bring everyone up to speed: Thirteen months ago, Applauding, then a two year old filly, set a new track record at Keeneland in her debut, finishing nine lengths ahead of Sacristy. Applauding made her real dirt debut seven weeks later in her second career start, winning by six lengths at Final Odds of 0.1-1.
Applauding was then entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes in January and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February (and was the Morning Line favorite in both) but ran in neither. Colic-like symptoms were blamed for her scratch from the former, while she was scratched from the latter because Trainer Al Stall saw something in her workout that he didn't like.
And then came nothing. Applauding spent the next few months just handing out at Clairborne Farm in Kentucky. Quoting Al Stall:
"There's nothing really wrong with her. There was nothing bony, nothing to speak of. We're going to regroup on her in thirty days, and by that time I'll get up to Kentucky, so I can get out and look at her. She was eating everything in sight down here, but I had trouble with her weight."
Applauding returned to track workouts July 28, breezing three furlongs at Keeneland in 38.2 (22/28). She did three furlongs again on August 5, then four furlongs on each of the next five Saturdays. She then took a break, not working again until Columbus Day. Her works have been steady since:
10/08 - Kee - 4F - 49.6 - 16/28
10/14 - Kee - 4F - 48.6 - 17/32
10/20 - Kee - 4F - 47.4 - 1/45
10/28 - CD - 4F - 48.2 - 2/77
11/03 - CD - 4F - 49.6 - 29/80 (from the gate)
11/10 - CD - 5F - 62.4 - 33/48
11/16 - CD - 4F - 49.0 - 12/35
Of course, as her past history shows, the fact that Applauding is entered in a race is no guarantee that she will actually run. And, needless to say, if she does run, there's no guarantee that she'll show the same form that she did when she last competed, nearly one year ago. But I, for one, am thrilled at the prospect of this filly displaying her talent on the track again, and am hopeful that she'll reach the heights that she seemed destined for as a two year old.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/16/12 BHP Race 5 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Hey, did you hear? Zenyatta's half-sister, Eblouissante, won her debut in Race 4 at Hollywood Park on Friday. Which, needless to say, is not what this post is about. Instead, we'll be focusing on the race after that one, as we continue to follow the exploits of Crown Over.
To briefly recap, Crown Over is a four year old gelding that was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff out of the ninth race at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 for $25,000. What made the claim notable was that Crown Over had gone to post at final odds of 32.2-1.
Normally, when a horse is claimed out of a race, the claimed horse is either the favorite or one of the other short odds entrants. Which makes sense; after all, if you're going to purchase a horse out of a specific race, and all the horses in that race have the same price tag, it makes sense that you would pick one of the better ones (as determined by the amounts wagered). For a trainer and/or owner to claim a horse out of a race in which the horse ran at long odds, especially odds greater than 30-1, indicates the trainer/owner believes that he sees something (ability; earning potential; etc.) in the horse that the betting public (not to mention the horse's prior connections) do not. Following the horse's career post-claim gives us the opportunity to see if the new connections were correct in their assessment.
In his first two starts for Kasparoff, both in Starter Allowance races, Crown Over finished seventh and seventh. Friday, Kasparoff dropped Crown Over down in class, into a claiming race, non-winners of two lifetime, with a price tag of $16k.
That's right; in his third race following the claim, Crown Over's new connections decided to offer the horse for sale for nine thousand dollars less than what they had paid.
There were no takers.
As to the race itself, Crown Over, with Joe Talamo aboard, left the gate at Final Odds of 3.4-1, and was last at first call and next-to-last at the half. Crown Over came on towards the end, splitting horses at mid-stretch and winning the photo for third by a nose, paying $3.20 to Show. Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing third was $2,160; bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for $25,000 to $2,860.
So it seems safe to say, at least so far, that whatever his new connections thought they saw in Crown Over when they purchased him for $25k was probably a mirage. We'll continue to track Crown Over while he remains in the Kasparoff barn and follow this story to the end; 'cos, who knows? Maybe Crown Over turns it around. After all, this is horse racing, and stranger things have happened.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
To briefly recap, Crown Over is a four year old gelding that was claimed by Trainer James Kasparoff out of the ninth race at Golden Gate Fields on August 25 for $25,000. What made the claim notable was that Crown Over had gone to post at final odds of 32.2-1.
Normally, when a horse is claimed out of a race, the claimed horse is either the favorite or one of the other short odds entrants. Which makes sense; after all, if you're going to purchase a horse out of a specific race, and all the horses in that race have the same price tag, it makes sense that you would pick one of the better ones (as determined by the amounts wagered). For a trainer and/or owner to claim a horse out of a race in which the horse ran at long odds, especially odds greater than 30-1, indicates the trainer/owner believes that he sees something (ability; earning potential; etc.) in the horse that the betting public (not to mention the horse's prior connections) do not. Following the horse's career post-claim gives us the opportunity to see if the new connections were correct in their assessment.
In his first two starts for Kasparoff, both in Starter Allowance races, Crown Over finished seventh and seventh. Friday, Kasparoff dropped Crown Over down in class, into a claiming race, non-winners of two lifetime, with a price tag of $16k.
That's right; in his third race following the claim, Crown Over's new connections decided to offer the horse for sale for nine thousand dollars less than what they had paid.
There were no takers.
As to the race itself, Crown Over, with Joe Talamo aboard, left the gate at Final Odds of 3.4-1, and was last at first call and next-to-last at the half. Crown Over came on towards the end, splitting horses at mid-stretch and winning the photo for third by a nose, paying $3.20 to Show. Crown Over's share of the purse for finishing third was $2,160; bringing his total purse earnings since being claimed for $25,000 to $2,860.
So it seems safe to say, at least so far, that whatever his new connections thought they saw in Crown Over when they purchased him for $25k was probably a mirage. We'll continue to track Crown Over while he remains in the Kasparoff barn and follow this story to the end; 'cos, who knows? Maybe Crown Over turns it around. After all, this is horse racing, and stranger things have happened.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 11, 2012
11/11/12 HAW R9 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Back on September 30, I wrote in this blog about Big Man in Black; no, not myself, but rather a three year old bay colt by Southern Image out of Beartrack Cove. Big Man in Black was placed on our watch list after Race 2 at Santa Anita on September 29, a Maiden Claiming ($20k) in which he went off at final odds of 10.6-1 and finished eighth in a field of thirteen (as loyal readers of this blog are all too aware, I have a more than mild fascination with longshot claims that finish as would be expected by their final odds).
Big Man in Black's new owner Leonard M Friedman (on the claim, joined by Wexler Racing Stables for Sunday's entry) took him out of Southern California, where the colt was oh-for-four lifetime, and brought him to Hawthorne. Carla Gaines had been listed as the new trainer on the claim, but with the shift to Illinois Big Man in Black was placed in the care of Trainer Frank Kirby, with Jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr getting the mount for Sunday's Race 9 at Hawthorne.
As you can see, Sunday's race was an MSW restricted to Illinois bred horses, run over a distance of eight and a half furlongs on the turf. So with a change in distance, surface, and locale, going against the weaker state bred competition, it becomes clear what Friedman's plan was when he claimed Big Man in Black at long odds at Santa Anita. Practically defining the phrase "well intended" Big Man in Black did not disappoint, finishing first by a length and three-quarters, paying $10.60 / $5.60 / $3.60. Big Man in Black's Winner's Share of the purse was $19,800.00, just two hundred dollars shy of the $20k for which he had been claimed six weeks earlier.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Big Man in Black's new owner Leonard M Friedman (on the claim, joined by Wexler Racing Stables for Sunday's entry) took him out of Southern California, where the colt was oh-for-four lifetime, and brought him to Hawthorne. Carla Gaines had been listed as the new trainer on the claim, but with the shift to Illinois Big Man in Black was placed in the care of Trainer Frank Kirby, with Jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr getting the mount for Sunday's Race 9 at Hawthorne.
As you can see, Sunday's race was an MSW restricted to Illinois bred horses, run over a distance of eight and a half furlongs on the turf. So with a change in distance, surface, and locale, going against the weaker state bred competition, it becomes clear what Friedman's plan was when he claimed Big Man in Black at long odds at Santa Anita. Practically defining the phrase "well intended" Big Man in Black did not disappoint, finishing first by a length and three-quarters, paying $10.60 / $5.60 / $3.60. Big Man in Black's Winner's Share of the purse was $19,800.00, just two hundred dollars shy of the $20k for which he had been claimed six weeks earlier.
For those interested, the Equibase chart of the race may be viewed here, while the DRF version of events is available here.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
11/2 - 11/3 SA - 2012 Breeders' Cup Recap
Well, not a full recap; rather just a few stray observations regarding the two day event, with the hope that some of this information may prove useful next year.
For example, of the fifteen Breeders' Cup winners on Friday and Saturday, four were favorites:
Royal Delta (1.7-1) - BC Ladies' Classic
Groupie Doll (0.7-1) - BC Filly & Mare Sprint
Shanghai Bobby (1.3-1) - BC Juvenile
Wise Dan (1.8-1) - BC Mile
If you expect favorites to win about a third of the time, then those numbers are about right, being just one winner shy of 33.33%.
Only two jockeys had multiple Breeders' Cup wins this year: Rajiv Maragh and Mike Smith, each with two. Smith's two victories make him the all-time leader among jockeys with seventeen BC wins. In addition, Smith was also the winner of the Bill Shoemaker Award for being the outstanding jockey of this year's Breeders' Cup.
There was a great deal of speculation over the two days as to whether or not Trainer Bill Mott would be able to repeat his 2011 sweep of the BC Ladies' Classic / BC Classic Double. He would not; for while Royal Delta once again won the Ladies' Classic, that would be Mott's only victory over the two days. In fact, no trainer was able to notch two victories in this year's Breeders' Cup races, as each of the fifteen events featured a different trainer in the winner's circle, none of whom was Bob Baffert.
Nine of the fifteen BC races (60%) were won by horses that had lost their last time out; four of those nine having finished out of the money. This group includes the D Wayne Lukas-trained Hightail, the first maiden to win a Breeders' Cup race.
Of the nine BC races run on the dirt, only two were won by horses that had previously raced over the Santa Anita main track: the BC Juvenile Fillies (won by Beholder) and the BC Dirt Mile (won by Tapizar). Of the six turf races, only one, the BC Turf Sprint, was won by a horse (Mizdirection) that had previously raced over the Santa Anita grass. So twelve of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races (80%) were won by horses making their debut on either the Santa Anita main track or the Santa Anita turf. So much for the "horse for the course" angle.
My personal winner for most shocking 2012 Breeders' Cup moment was Little Mike winning the BC Turf. It's not so much that he won; for, while his final odds were 17.3-1, he was a multi-time graded stakes winner, and therefore certainly belonged with this field; it's that Little Mike won by coming from behind. I'd never thought that I would see Little Mike win a race where he did not lead wire-to-wire. I was, obviously, mistaken.
As regards my handicapping, while Day 2 was certainly an improvement over Day 1, I still ended up writing the overall net results in red ink. While disappointing, I can't call the results upsetting; after all, the Breeders' Cup events are the most difficult group of races of the year to handicap; so losses are to be expected. I am, however, annoyed at one large error I made in my placement of wagers. On Day 2, I had a saver wager of $2 across on Trinniberg at 13.7-1 in the BC Sprint (YAH!); I had the Late Double of Wise Dan and Fort Larned (an $18 Ticket of 2, 6, 9 / 1, 4, 5 that paid $55.80; again YAH!) along with $10 across on Fort Larned at 9.4-1 (YAH!); but for God only knows what reason, I had no part of the Trinniberg / Wise Dan / Fort Larned Pick 3 that paid $210.05 for fifty cents. I guess I could blame fatigue; but, man, what a total brain fart.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
For example, of the fifteen Breeders' Cup winners on Friday and Saturday, four were favorites:
Royal Delta (1.7-1) - BC Ladies' Classic
Groupie Doll (0.7-1) - BC Filly & Mare Sprint
Shanghai Bobby (1.3-1) - BC Juvenile
Wise Dan (1.8-1) - BC Mile
If you expect favorites to win about a third of the time, then those numbers are about right, being just one winner shy of 33.33%.
Only two jockeys had multiple Breeders' Cup wins this year: Rajiv Maragh and Mike Smith, each with two. Smith's two victories make him the all-time leader among jockeys with seventeen BC wins. In addition, Smith was also the winner of the Bill Shoemaker Award for being the outstanding jockey of this year's Breeders' Cup.
There was a great deal of speculation over the two days as to whether or not Trainer Bill Mott would be able to repeat his 2011 sweep of the BC Ladies' Classic / BC Classic Double. He would not; for while Royal Delta once again won the Ladies' Classic, that would be Mott's only victory over the two days. In fact, no trainer was able to notch two victories in this year's Breeders' Cup races, as each of the fifteen events featured a different trainer in the winner's circle, none of whom was Bob Baffert.
Nine of the fifteen BC races (60%) were won by horses that had lost their last time out; four of those nine having finished out of the money. This group includes the D Wayne Lukas-trained Hightail, the first maiden to win a Breeders' Cup race.
Of the nine BC races run on the dirt, only two were won by horses that had previously raced over the Santa Anita main track: the BC Juvenile Fillies (won by Beholder) and the BC Dirt Mile (won by Tapizar). Of the six turf races, only one, the BC Turf Sprint, was won by a horse (Mizdirection) that had previously raced over the Santa Anita grass. So twelve of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races (80%) were won by horses making their debut on either the Santa Anita main track or the Santa Anita turf. So much for the "horse for the course" angle.
My personal winner for most shocking 2012 Breeders' Cup moment was Little Mike winning the BC Turf. It's not so much that he won; for, while his final odds were 17.3-1, he was a multi-time graded stakes winner, and therefore certainly belonged with this field; it's that Little Mike won by coming from behind. I'd never thought that I would see Little Mike win a race where he did not lead wire-to-wire. I was, obviously, mistaken.
As regards my handicapping, while Day 2 was certainly an improvement over Day 1, I still ended up writing the overall net results in red ink. While disappointing, I can't call the results upsetting; after all, the Breeders' Cup events are the most difficult group of races of the year to handicap; so losses are to be expected. I am, however, annoyed at one large error I made in my placement of wagers. On Day 2, I had a saver wager of $2 across on Trinniberg at 13.7-1 in the BC Sprint (YAH!); I had the Late Double of Wise Dan and Fort Larned (an $18 Ticket of 2, 6, 9 / 1, 4, 5 that paid $55.80; again YAH!) along with $10 across on Fort Larned at 9.4-1 (YAH!); but for God only knows what reason, I had no part of the Trinniberg / Wise Dan / Fort Larned Pick 3 that paid $210.05 for fifty cents. I guess I could blame fatigue; but, man, what a total brain fart.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, November 2, 2012
11/2/12 SA - Breeders' Cup Day One Results
Obviously not one of my better efforts, as the opposition pitched a shutout today. Well, not a complete shutout, as tickets were cashed; but each race saw its bottom line written in red ink. Total Net Loss on the day was $267.75.
Oh well; onto the next race.
I think I'll be passing on the live blogging tomorrow. Not because it interfered with my handicapping; indeed, in retrospect, it might have been a better day if something had interfered with my handicapping. Rather, it just proved to be too much to have to do between races, as in addition to posting here I was also texting and emailing out my plays to some close friends. Again, not blaming that for the results; just stating that it's a lot more work than I had anticipated.
More importantly, there's really not much worth reading in the live posts. As there was no time for true analysis, or even for a decent review, there's really not anything of lasting value in those posts; and I believe the same would be true even if the results were successful. So I think I'll go a little easier on myself tomorrow and skip this part; but we'll see.
Congrats to all who came out ahead on the day. May your good fortune continue tomorrow.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 10 - Preview
Final race of the day; see if we can close on an up note. Using a little trip handicapping to form my opinion.
$5 WPS 6 Old Time Hockey
$2 EX BX 6 / 2 Speaking of Which (Ire)
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 9 - Preview
Swinging for the fences; going with the invader from the North. Hoping that the pace is fast and furious.
$5 WPS 3 Class Included
$2 WPS 1 Grace Hall
$1 EX BX 1 / 3 / 5
$1 EX 5, 6 / 1, 3, 5, 6
$0.50 TRI BX 1 / 3/ 5
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 3 Class Included
$2 WPS 1 Grace Hall
$1 EX BX 1 / 3 / 5
$1 EX 5, 6 / 1, 3, 5, 6
$0.50 TRI BX 1 / 3/ 5
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 8 - Preview
Price too good to pass up; going with # 6 Lady of Shamrock. Two consecutive Grade 1 wins should be tough to beat.
$10 WPS 6
$2 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 4 / 6 / 9
$1 TRI BX 4 / 6 / 9
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$10 WPS 6
$2 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 4 / 6 / 9
$1 TRI BX 4 / 6 / 9
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 7 - Preview
Going with Executiveprivilege; I think she's just much the best.
$5 WPS 2
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 2
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 6 - Preview
Wide open race; looking at jockeys in a large field. Tossing in the undefeated horse for the exotics.
$5 WPS 8 (Tara From the Cape)
$2 WPS 10 (Waterway Run)
$1 EX BX 5 / 8 / 10
$1 TRI BX 5 / 8 / 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 8 (Tara From the Cape)
$2 WPS 10 (Waterway Run)
$1 EX BX 5 / 8 / 10
$1 TRI BX 5 / 8 / 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 5 - Preview
Going with # 5 Jaycito; though not crazy about his lack of a win on a dirt track. Swinging for the fences with the Exacta. May regret leaving # 1 Atigun out of top spot; I'm betting that he doesn't last the distance; we'll see.
$5 WPS 5
$2 WPS 10
$1 EX BX 5 / 10 / 14
$1 EX 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10, 14
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 5
$2 WPS 10
$1 EX BX 5 / 10 / 14
$1 EX 5, 10 / 1, 5, 10, 14
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 4 - Preview
Chalking out; well, mostly:
$5 WPS 3 (Merit Man)
$2 WPS 6 (Hazardous)
$2 EX 3 / 6
$1 EX 6 / 3
$2 DBL 3, 6 / 1, 5, 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 3 (Merit Man)
$2 WPS 6 (Hazardous)
$2 EX 3 / 6
$1 EX 6 / 3
$2 DBL 3, 6 / 1, 5, 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 3 - Preview
Throwing # 8 Sir Allison (ML 6-1) into the mix because I like the change of pace in his last race.
$5 WPS 1
$2 EX BX 1 / 7
$1 EX BX 1 / 7 / 8
$1 TRI BX 1 / 7 /8
$2DBL 1, 7, 8 / 3
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 1
$2 EX BX 1 / 7
$1 EX BX 1 / 7 / 8
$1 TRI BX 1 / 7 /8
$2DBL 1, 7, 8 / 3
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 2 - Preview
# 9 Magical Band (ML 8-1) looks to have a pace advantage. Have to respect the favorite, # 7 Big Tiz (ML 2-1). # 5 Warren's Amber (ML 5-1) gets some class relief and goes back to her preferred surface.
$5 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 7 / 9
$1 EX BX 5 / 7 / 9
#1 EX 7, 9 / 5, 7, 9, 10
$0.10 SPR BX 5 / 7 / 9 / 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 9
$1 EX BX 7 / 9
$1 EX BX 5 / 7 / 9
#1 EX 7, 9 / 5, 7, 9, 10
$0.10 SPR BX 5 / 7 / 9 / 10
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/2/12 SA - Race 1 - Preview
The first race of the day and the last race of the day are notorious for being overbet; and I suspect I've fallen into that trap. I'm betting that # 11 Quail Hill (ML 6-1) will jump to the front early, and then lead the pack home. With that in mind, my plays for Race 1 on this Breeders' Cup Friday are as follows:
$5 WPS 11
$2 DBL 11 / 7, 9, 10
$1 PK3 11 / 7 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK3 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK5 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8 / 3, 6 / 5
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
$5 WPS 11
$2 DBL 11 / 7, 9, 10
$1 PK3 11 / 7 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK3 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8
$0.50 PK5 11 / 7, 9, 10 / 1, 7, 8 / 3, 6 / 5
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
2012 Breeders' Cup - Preview
It's Friday, Day One of The Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita, America's Day (well, now Days) at the Races.
If you've come here looking for a run down and analysis of each of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races, I'm about to disappoint you. Quite frankly, that's just too many races with too many horses for me to give a preview that would actually be worth reading; not to mention that almost anything I would write about each entrant would be pretty much a regurgitation of what somebody else on the net has already written.
If you're looking for quality race-by-race analysis for free, I can point you towards the Brisnet web site, which has some Grade One insights into Friday's and Saturday's events. If you're willing to divulge your name and email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide, containing insights from such respected analysts as Steve Byk, Jennie Rees, Mike Battaglia, and Dick Jerardi. So while I could post several thousand words of analysis about the big races over the next two days, it's unlikely that I can top anything that's already out there.
Since my plans to be in Vegas today and tomorrow have fallen through, what I hope to do instead, Good Lord willing, is live blog how I'll be playing each of the races today, posting prior to each post time the wagers that I'll be making. Depending on how it goes, this could be a source of later acclaim; or it could prove to be something that many will be able to point to and laugh; time will tell.
One tiny bit of insight that I can tell you is this: that which makes The Breeders' Cup races unique, is that each field is comprised of nothing but top of the line horses; so no matter who you land on in any given race, you're going to be betting on a quality horse. Because of that, these races are a bargain hunter's dream. For example, where else but in a Breeders' Cup race are you going to find a horse like Lady of Shamrock, winner of Grade One races her last two times out, and just a nose away from five consecutive stakes victories, with Morning Line odds of 12-1? Or My Miss Aurelia, six-for-six lifetime, half of those coming in Grade One races, with a Morning Line of 4-1? So if you're the type that likes to swing for the fences and go for price, these races are for you.
The other tip I would give to all who are reading this is: be flexible. Be ready to change your plans if and when new data becomes available. Remember the Life At Ten Incident; sometimes key information doesn't become known until just a few minutes prior to post. So be alert to how the track is playing; watch the board to see which horses are getting ignored by the public; observe which jockey(s) seems to know exactly which lane to take to the finish line in the stretch; and don't be afraid to re-think your opinion in light of new facts.
And finally, above all: HAVE FUN. If you're a horse player, these are your events. This is where you get to see the best compete against the best, in pretty much every category imaginable. Enjoy the competition; enjoy the improvement of the breed; enjoy watching these great athletes strut their stuff; enjoy yourself; because if you're not having fun, why bother?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
If you've come here looking for a run down and analysis of each of the fifteen Breeders' Cup races, I'm about to disappoint you. Quite frankly, that's just too many races with too many horses for me to give a preview that would actually be worth reading; not to mention that almost anything I would write about each entrant would be pretty much a regurgitation of what somebody else on the net has already written.
If you're looking for quality race-by-race analysis for free, I can point you towards the Brisnet web site, which has some Grade One insights into Friday's and Saturday's events. If you're willing to divulge your name and email address, Xpressbet.com is offering a free Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide, containing insights from such respected analysts as Steve Byk, Jennie Rees, Mike Battaglia, and Dick Jerardi. So while I could post several thousand words of analysis about the big races over the next two days, it's unlikely that I can top anything that's already out there.
Since my plans to be in Vegas today and tomorrow have fallen through, what I hope to do instead, Good Lord willing, is live blog how I'll be playing each of the races today, posting prior to each post time the wagers that I'll be making. Depending on how it goes, this could be a source of later acclaim; or it could prove to be something that many will be able to point to and laugh; time will tell.
One tiny bit of insight that I can tell you is this: that which makes The Breeders' Cup races unique, is that each field is comprised of nothing but top of the line horses; so no matter who you land on in any given race, you're going to be betting on a quality horse. Because of that, these races are a bargain hunter's dream. For example, where else but in a Breeders' Cup race are you going to find a horse like Lady of Shamrock, winner of Grade One races her last two times out, and just a nose away from five consecutive stakes victories, with Morning Line odds of 12-1? Or My Miss Aurelia, six-for-six lifetime, half of those coming in Grade One races, with a Morning Line of 4-1? So if you're the type that likes to swing for the fences and go for price, these races are for you.
The other tip I would give to all who are reading this is: be flexible. Be ready to change your plans if and when new data becomes available. Remember the Life At Ten Incident; sometimes key information doesn't become known until just a few minutes prior to post. So be alert to how the track is playing; watch the board to see which horses are getting ignored by the public; observe which jockey(s) seems to know exactly which lane to take to the finish line in the stretch; and don't be afraid to re-think your opinion in light of new facts.
And finally, above all: HAVE FUN. If you're a horse player, these are your events. This is where you get to see the best compete against the best, in pretty much every category imaginable. Enjoy the competition; enjoy the improvement of the breed; enjoy watching these great athletes strut their stuff; enjoy yourself; because if you're not having fun, why bother?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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