Losing is a big part of this game, as anyone who's played it for more than twenty minutes can tell you. As in all of life's endeavors, it's important to learn what you can from your setbacks, in the hopes that, at the very least, you won't make the same mistakes twice. However, just like the Billy Preston song "Will It Go Round In Circles", where there are stories without morals and dances without steps, sometimes in racing there are beats without lessons. Here's what I mean:
Race 7 at Hollywood Park on Sunday was a Maiden Claiming ($30k-$28k) for two year olds run at a distance of seven furlongs over the main synthetic track (in fact, due to the weather, all of BHP's races Sunday were contested over the main track). I decided to make my key horse the #10 Money Makin Sam (Final Odds 5.1-1). I liked the improvement he had shown in his Beyer Speed Figure in his previous race compared to his first two efforts, especially considering that it came when he had stretched out to six and a half furlongs; I figured it showed that he might like the added half panel. I liked the class drop, as his previous race had been a Maiden $50k. I liked that he had Doug O'Neill as his trainer.
Unfortunately, it didn't pan out. Money Makin Sam stalked early, took the lead at the top of the stretch, but couldn't hold on, finishing fourth, four and a half lengths back.
I did have the winner, # 6 Salah Champ, correctly pegged as a contender; indeed, I had used him in my exotics, cashing on the Exacta with Salah Champ on top of # 12 Judge Carr (5.8-1); though, as neither was my key, not to full effect.
In retrospect, this was a poorly played race on my part. Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, for a myriad of reasons. He had the best last out Beyer in the field (in a 6.5 furlong race over this same track), and he had Placed his last time out against this same class level. Salah Champ's trainer, Mike Mitchell, hit with high marks on all the relevant trainer angles (Two Years Old: 24% Winning Percentage; Synthetic Surface: 31%; Sprints: 26%; Maiden Claiming: 28%; with Jockey Joe Talamo: 33%). Salah Champ had the second best Tomlinson Rating in the field for the distance and the second best Wet Tomlinson in the pack (yeah, I know they call synthetic surfaces "all-weather"; but just because they call it that doesn't make it so; or why would they have to cancel dates when there's too much water on the track?).
The bottom line: Salah Champ was a legitimate favorite, and I should have recognized him as such. Failing to do so meant that at the end of the race my bankroll was lighter than it should have been. Recognizing legitimate favorites is one of the key components to success at handicapping, primarily because playing against them is a sure way to suffer consistent defeats.
Lesson learned.
Sunday's Race 9 at BHP was also a Maiden Claiming, but for Fillies and Mares (three years old and up) and with a lesser price tag of $20k. The race was run over a distance of six and a half furlongs over the main synthetic track.
I liked the favorite, # 13 Bwanadada (1.0-1), who was making the big drop from MSW to Maiden Claiming; I made her my key. I also liked the # 8 Letthepartybegin (5.1-1) who, like Bwanadada, was making the big drop (though not quite so big, as Letthepartybegin was coming from state bred MSW company). I figured these two as the class of the field, with Bwanadada having a clear edge over her rival. Also liked # 10 Hello Stormy (11.5-1), a horse who had shown good early speed in her prior contests, and who (not so incidentally) had a very attractive price. I put a saver wager on her, and tossed all three into my exotics.
Now, before going further, it needs to be pointed out that in the previous eight races run at BHP Sunday (again, all over the main synthetic track) all eight had been won by a horse that was either on the lead, or within a length of the lead, at the top of the stretch. Considering two of those eight had won at double-digit odds (Major Truth in Race 3 and Cloudy Moon in Race 5) it seemed clear that there was a track bias in effect that was putting closers, especially deep closers, at a serious disadvantage.
So, back to Race 9: Letthepartybegin reared at the start and was through at that point; she finished ninth, over twenty lengths back. But at the top of the stretch, Hello Stormy and Bwanadada were running one-two; I’ve got this baby cold.
Or so I thought.
On a day where eight races had been won by horses no further back than a length of the lead at the top of the stretch, # 3 English Puddin (17.1-1); a horse who had never finished in the money in four career starts; a horse who had finished fifth, over five lengths back her last time out (in a race over this same track against this same class level); a horse whose last out Beyer was sixth-best in this field; a horse whose trainer, Jorge Periban, has a 7% Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming races, and a 6% Winning Percentage in sprints; a horse who was sold at auction as a yearling for $15,000 less than the stud fee it took to have her foaled; comes from fourth place, five lengths back at the top of the stretch to finish first, a nose in front of Bwanadada.
There is no lesson to be learned here; there is no insight to be gained from reviewing the Past Performances and performing a postmortem over the charts. When you get beat like that, losing to a horse that had no chance on paper and who had to overcome a pronounced track bias in order to win, the only thing you can do is just shrug your shoulders and say:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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