9/27/20 Remington Park All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview

"A winner is someone who recognizes his God given talents, works his tail off to develop them into skills, and uses these skills to accomplish his goals." - Larry Bird

It's Oklahoma Derby Day at Remington Park, and the good people at Oklahoma City have put together a monster card featuring eight stakes, including a couple of the Graded variety.  So with that as introduction let's just get to it, as I take a run at the All-Stakes Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 8 - (F) The Flashy Lady $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Caliente Candy (Morning Line 8-1)

B's

# 1 Mt. Brave (ML 7-2)

# 3 Wishful Quality (ML 12-1)

# 6 Final Form (ML 6-1)

# 7 Irish Mischief (ML 3-1)

C's

# 4 Cosmic Code (ML 8-1)

# 5 Karate Hottie (ML 30-1)

# 9 Sweet Mary M (ML 12-1)
# 10 Brave Daisey (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 2 Dos Vinos (ML 4-1)

Caliente Candy, Show finisher behind Final Form last time out, should benefit from the added distance.  Expect Caliente Candy to be the one running best late.

Mt. Brave is the defending champ for this event, having won the 2019 running of this race.  Wishful Quality could benefit from the freshening.  Note also that the last time Wishful Quality got her picture taken, today's rider, Ramon Vazquez, was on her back.

Final Form could be the speed of the speed here.  Irish Mischief, trained by Brad Cox, looks to be getting some class relief here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) The E. L. Gaylord Memorial $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Kandy Ginger (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Miss Twenty (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Hopping Jitterbug (ML 6-1)

# 3 Novel Squall (ML 5-1)

# 5 Friendly Mischief (ML 12-1)
# 6 Little Samurai (ML 15-1)
# 7 Missheartbreaker (ML 20-1)

# 8 Cosmetology (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gotta See Red (ML 8-1)

These are juvenile fillies, with Miss Twenty being the most experienced runner in the field, having competed three times prior to Sunday's event.

Kandy Ginger, trained by Steve Asmussen, is undefeated in two tries, having taken the $112k Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at Lone Star last time out.  The aforementioned Miss Twenty was much the best last time out in the $50k Prairie Gold Lassie Stakes at Prairie Meadows last time out.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 10 - The Oklahoma Derby (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Shared Sense (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Avant Garde (ML 6-1)

# 9 Dean Martini (ML 7-2)

C's

# 1 Salow (ML 15-1)

# 2 Creative Plan (ML 8-1)

# 3 Rowdy Yates (ML 4-1)

# 4 Liam (ML 15-1)

# 6 Code Runner (ML 10-1)

# 8 Mo Mosa (ML 8-1)

Shared Sense, trained by Brad Cox, won the Grade 3 Indiana Derby by open lengths two starts back.  Shared Sense should benefit from not having to face Ellis Park Derby winner and Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector again.

Avant Garde, much improved since getting off the grass, enters this contest with a four race winning streak.  Dean Martini, winner of the Grade 3 Ohio Derby two starts back, is another that should appreciate not having to compete again against Art Collector.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 11 - (F) The Ricks Memorial $60k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Blue Moonrise (ML 3-1)

# 6 Curlin's Journey (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Confessing (ML 5-2)

# 4 Quick Quick Quick (ML 5-1)

# 9 Love On Tides (ML 8-1)

# 11 Streak of Luck (ML 4-1)

C's

# 1 Soaring Now (ML 10-1)

# 2 Corluna (ML 12-1)

# 7 Zam Zam (ML 20-1)
# 8 Blessed Again (ML 15-1)

# 10 Decorated Ace (ML 12-1)

As I type this, I see that Sunday afternoon's weather forecast for Oklahoma City is calling for rain; possibly thunderstorms.  So there is an very real possibility that this event may be moved off the turf and onto the main track.  That being the case, I'm using Blue Moonrise, who as been entered for the main track only, as one of my top selections.

Curlin's Journey is my other top selection.  Curlin's Journey, Graded Stakes Placed in her career, looks to be the best should this contest remain on the grass.  Curlin's Journey has also run well on an off dirt track in the past, just as you would expect from a daughter of Curlin; so a surface switch should not present her with any problems.

Confessing was an easy winner in a first level Allowance at Kentucky Downs last time out.  Quick Quick Quick and Love On Tides were just a neck apart at the wire while taking the Win and Show, respectively, in a no condition Allowance over this turf course last time out.

Streak of Luck, winner of the $75k Lady Canterbury two starts back, could be quickest here.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 5,6 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,6,7,8 with 1,4 with 5,7,9 with 3,4,5,6,9,11 $90.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 4,5,9,10 with 1 with 5 with 5,6 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,9 with 5 with 5,6 $7.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 5,6 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 1 with 5 with 1,2,7,8,10 $2.50

Total: $111.50

Post Time for Race 8 is 7:16 EDT / 4:16 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/19/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 10 Spotted Bull (Final Odds 2.70*) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 12 Skyburst (7.60) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 1 Trixie Racer (2.50) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 5 Hawaiian Typhoon (1.20*) - "A" Selection

The story of the night, at least as far as my Primetime Pick Four play goes, is that my "A" Selection in the second leg, # 8 Flexati (2.00*), was just a head too slow in getting under the wire, and had to settle for the Place.  Granted, had Flexati gotten the victory the sequence probably would not have paid much; but collecting at a loss will always beat not collecting at all.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  10 / 12 / 1 / 5  were rewarded with a payout of $167.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/19/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"The future is called 'perhaps,' which is the only possible thing to call the future. And the important thing is not to allow that to scare you." - Tennessee Williams

Allow me to begin with a bit of a programming note: Sunday, September 27, is scheduled to be the biggest day of the Remington Park meet, with the running of the Grade 3, $200,000 Oklahoma Derby, along with the Grade 3, $100,000 Remington Park Oaks.  So next weekend, don't look for anything new on this blog Saturday, as I will instead, good Lord willing, be posting on Sunday.  So with that announcement out of the way let's get to it, as I take a run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Tapped to the Max (Morning Line 6-1)

B's

# 3 Imma Texas Bling (ML 15-1)

# 6 Excess Magic (ML 5-1)

# 9 Flat Out Avenger (ML 15-1)

# 10 Spotted Bull (ML 4-1)

# 11 Carpe Luna (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Vim and Vigor (ML 20-1)

# 2 Haley's Steelman (ML 12-1)

# 4 Cayenne Fervor (ML 30-1)

# 7 A Hunk of Heaven (ML 15-1)

# 8 Sr. Bi Bi (ML 15-1)

# 12 Mrs. Beans (ML 8-1)

These are juveniles, with six of one and half a dozen of the other as regards experienced vs. non-experienced runners among the entrants prior to any scratches.  Tapped to the Max and Excess Magic are among the experienced competitors, each having finished in the money in their respective debuts last time out.  In fact, Excess Magic actually crossed under the wire first in his race, but was disqualified for bumping his opponent.

Imma Texas Bling, Flat Out Avenger, and Carpe Luna are debut runners under the tutelage of trainers known for being successful with first time starters.  Spotted Bull hit the line first at this class level two starts back, but was DQ'd down to second.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 7 - Md $7.5k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Flexati (ML 5-1)

B's

# 2 Archrival (ML 3-1)

# 11 Uncle Tap (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 U S Hero (ML 7-2)

# 3 El Chocolate (ML 20-1)
# 4 Witt's Coco (ML 20-1)
# 5 Situatenshady (ML 20-1)

# 7 Cascade King (ML 12-1)

# 9 Sequence (ML 15-1)

# 10 Daddy Jack (ML 30-1)

# 12 Skyburst (ML 8-1)
# 13 One Ring (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 6 Ringling Ranch (ML 20-1)

Flexati took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out, and Flexati could be helped by the increase in distance.  Archrival, a couple of lengths behind Flexati at the wire last time out, could improve going second off the claim for Trainer Austin Gustafson.

Uncle Tap took the Show at this approximate class level in each of his last two starts up at Canterbury Park.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 4 Country Daisy (ML 4-1)

B's

# 1 Trixie Racer (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Ruthless Rhonda (ML 5-1)
# 3 Runaround Rosey (ML 6-1)
# 5 Visual Magic (ML 3-1)
# 6 Imaginary Music (ML 9-2)

Country Daisy, victorious in state bred restricted stakes in two of her last three starts, has run well in the past when competing against open company.  Trixie Racer, Place finisher against Allowance company at Louisiana Downs two starts back, is two-for-three lifetime when competing over the Remington Park main track.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 5 Hawaiian Typhoon (ML 2-1)

B's

# 3 Wapi (ML 6-1)

# 4 Leather and Lace (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Okie Footnote (ML 5-1)
# 2 Acertive Miss (ML 15-1)

# 6 Oratory Glory (ML 15-1)

# 7 Shobiz Superstar (ML 15-1)

# 8 Wild Prospect (ML 8-1)
# 9 The One for Fun (ML 4-1)

Hawaiian Typhoon has run well over this turf course in the past, and Hawaiian Typhoon should improve with the return to state bred restricted company.  Wapi proved that the twentieth time's the charm last time out, finally graduating after approximately two years of trying.  But note that Wapi has finished in the money in seven of her ten career turf starts, and further note that Wapi's Win came versus open company.

Leather and Lace could move up with the return to state bred restricted company.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 4 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,9,10,11 with 2,8,11 with 1,4 with 3,4,5 $54.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,7,8,12 with 8 with 4 with 5 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3,4,5,7,9,10,12,13 with 4 with 5 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 2,3,5,6 with 5 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 4 with 1,2,6,7,8,9 $3.00

Total: $67.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/12/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results

Race 6 - # 3 Covington Quality (Final Odds 8.00) - "B" Selection

Race 7 - # 7 North of Eden (9.50) - "C" Selection

Race 8 - # 11 Final Form (1.60*) - "B" Selection

Race 9 - # 9 Aloha Betty (2.50) - "B" Selection

The good news Saturday was seeing the second longest price on the tote board cross under the wire first in the opening leg of the sequence.  That's the type of result that you hope for when you go "ALL" in any given leg.  The bad news Saturday was seeing my big ticket single in the second leg, # 9 Frozen Hannah (0.90*) finish dead last, nearly four lengths behind her nearest competitor and over twenty-two lengths behind the winner.  Needless to say, that's a result you never want to see; especially when it's the only miss on your main ticket.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of  3 / 7 / 11 / 9  were rewarded with a payout of $814.85 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/12/20 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview

"Sometimes, things may not go your way, but the effort should be there every single night." - Michael Jordan

As we start closing in on Autumn, it seems like a good time to return to nighttime horse racing.  So, good Lord willing, for the next several weeks, until we get to The Breeders' Cup, and with the exception of the Preakness Stakes (which I very nearly forgot is still upcoming!), I'll be trying my luck with the contests in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.  So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.

RACE 6 - [S] ALW N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 Word to the Wise (Morning Line 8-5)

B's

# 1 Popfly Two Six (ML 6-1)

# 2 Fly to the Bank (ML 5-2)

# 3 Covington Quality (ML 8-1)

# 6 Mr. Misleading (ML 8-1)

C's

None

Scratch # 4 Eurowest (ML 5-1)

Word to the Wise, prior to his last race, had finished in the Trifecta in each of his career starts.; and a strong case could be made that Word to the Wise should be a big ticket single here.  However, that last effort by Word to the Wise led me to be cautious; and therefore I'll be spreading a bit in this leg.

Popfly Two Six is going second off the claim as well as moving from turf to dirt; these are moves with which Trained Federico Villafranco tends to be successful.  Fly to the Bank could move up with the drop in class.

Covington Quality could move up with the cutback in distance.  Mr. Misleading is on the big ticket because everyone else is on it.  So it's everybody into the pool, as I go "ALL" to begin the sequence.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $15k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 9 Frozen Hannah (ML 7-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 1 M and M Girl (ML 6-1)

# 2 Sexy Dance (ML 15-1)
# 3 Tic Toc Toccet (ML 12-1)
# 4 Yankee Pride (ML 8-1)
# 5 Blushing Kitten (ML 3-1)

# 6 Badgeri Candy (ML 9-2)

# 7 North of Eden (ML 6-1)

# 8 Communicado (ML 20-1)

# 10 Broadway County (ML 20-1)

Blushing Kitten, who won at this level last time out against several of these, is certainly one that deserves consideration.  But ultimately I decided that Frozen Hannah looks much too strong with the class drop; so it's Frozen Hannah solo on the big ticket in this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.

RACE 8 - (F) ALW NC - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A's

# 5 True Castle (ML 5-1)

B's

# 4 Surf Kitten (ML 10-1)

# 6 Brave Daisey (ML 6-1)

# 9 Caliente Candy (ML 10-1)

# 11 Final Form (ML 7-2)

C's

# 2 Karate Hottie (ML 8-1)

# 3 Three Chords (ML 5-1)

# 7 Lay M Out (ML 20-1)
# 8 Shes Our Fastest (ML 10-1)

# 10 Ima Discreet Lady (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 1 Stormieis Blue (ML 20-1)

This is an Allowance Race with no conditions; so if you've got a filly or mare and want to run her, you're free to enter her here.

True Castle, trained by Robertino Diodoro, was outclassed last time out in the Albuquerque Distaff, and today's step down the class ladder should allow True Castle to run to the form that she displayed earlier this year at Lone Star and Oaklawn.

Surf Kitten enters this event with a four race winning streak, earned in contests at Arapahoe Park and Turf Paradise.  Surf Kitten appears quick enough that she could be the one that the others will have to catch in order to win.

Brave Daisey was much the best last time out in the Valor Farm Stakes; and Brave Daisey has a prior Win over this track.  Caliente Candy returns to the barn of Trainer Danny Pish, for whom she has run well over this main track in the past.

Final Form should improve by getting off the grass.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 9 - (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf

A's

# 6 Nautical Gem (ML 4-1)

B's

# 7 Salty Heart (ML 6-1)

# 9 Aloha Betty (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Henny Fly (ML 5-1)
# 2 Know What I Mina (ML 12-1)
# 3 Goldentill (ML 15-1)
# 4 Noble Love (ML 9-2)
# 5 Forty Nine Model (ML 8-1)

# 8 My City Girl (ML 15-1)

Nautical Gem took the Show at this class level last time out (albeit on dirt), and Nautical Gem should be helped by the cutback in distance.  Salty Heart took the Show on the grass at Lone Star last time out at this class level.

Aloha Betty goes second off the claim for Trainer Karl Broberg, who tends to do well with such.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 9 with 5 with 6 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: ALL with 9 with 4,5,6,9,11 with 6,7,9 $37.50

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10 with 5 with 6 $4.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 9 with 2,3,7,8,10 with 6 $2.50

$0.50 P4: 5 with 9 with 5 with 1,2,3,4,5,8 $3.00

Total: $48.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Results

Race 11 - The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile - # 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (Final Odds 8.40) - "C" Selection

Race 12 - The Derby City Distaff - # 4 Bell's the One (4.20) - "C" Selection

Race 13 - The Turf Classic - # 4 Digital Age (Ire) (8.60) - "C" Selection

Race 14 - The Kentucky Derby - # 18 Authentic (8.40) - "B" Selection

Congrats to Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, Trainer Bob Baffert, Jockey John Velazquez, and all the winner's connections.  Just a tremendous effort by a great horse.  And hat's off to Tiz the Law, who ran a fine race in defeat.  Truly a memorable Kentucky Derby; unlike my play, which was quite forgettable.

Oh well; onto the next race.

Meanwhile, those who had the correct Kentucky Derby Pick Four sequence of  6 / 4 / 4 / 18  were rewarded with a payout of $2,789.30 for their fifty cent wager.  May God bless them as they spend their winnings.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

9/5/20 Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby Pick Four - Preview

"You don't become enormously successful without encountering and overcoming a number of extremely challenging problems." - Mark Victor Hansen

It's here at last, the first Saturday in, well, not May; but September.  So it goes.  But though it certainly isn't what we're used to, the Kentucky Derby is still the Kentucky Derby, North America's biggest horse race of the year.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.

RACE 11 - (F) The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Newspaperofrecord (Ire) (Morning Line 4-5)

B's

# 2 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (ML 5-1)

# 6 Beau Recall (Ire) (ML 5-1)

# 7 La Signare (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 8 Belle Laura (ML 30-1)

Scratch # 1 She'sonthewarpath (ML 15-1) and # 5 Harmless (ML 12-1)

Newspaperofrecord (Ire) appears to have returned to the form that she displayed as a juvenile back in 2018.  Indeed, toss out her 2019 starts and Newspaperofrecord is five-for-five in her career, with four of those five victories coming in Graded Stakes.

Daddy Is a Legend probably needed that last race, which was her 2020 debut.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 12 - (F) The Derby City Distaff (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Ce Ce (ML 3-1)

B's

# 8 Serengeti Empress (ML 9-5)

# 9 Bellafina (ML 3-1)

C's

# 2 Shesomajestic (ML 30-1)
# 3 Wildwood's Beauty (ML 20-1)
# 4 Bell's the One (ML 10-1)

# 6 Sally's Curlin (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 1 Mia Mischief (ML 6-1); # 5 Crazy Sexy Munny (ML 50-1); and # 7 Lady Kate (ML 20-1)

Ce Ce, Show finisher in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar last time out, should improve with the cutback in distance.  An added plus is that Ce Ce defeated Serengeti Empress earlier this year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park.

Serengeti Empress will almost certainly be quickest out of the gate.  Bellafina has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in six of her last nine starts; but Bellafina is just too talented for me to leave her off the main ticket.  The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.

RACE 13 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Factor This (ML 3-1)

B's

# 2 Bowies Hero (ML 6-1)

# 8 Sacred Life (Fr) (ML 10-1)

# 9 Somelikeithotbrown (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Rockemperor (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 4 Digital Age (Ire) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dontblamerocket (ML 15-1)
# 6 Mr Dumas (ML 12-1)

# 7 True Valour (Ire) (ML 12-1)

# 10 Spectacular Gem (ML 10-1)

Factor This enters this event with a four race winning streak; and Factor This should benefit from the rail draw.  Bowies Hero could move up going third off the layoff.

Sacred Life (Fr) looks to be the one that will be running best late.  Somelikeithotbrown seems well suited to Saturday's distance.  The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.

RACE 14 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 17 Tiz the Law (ML 3-5)

B's

# 10 Thousand Words (ML 15-1)

# 16 Honor A. P. (ML 5-1)

# 18 Authentic (ML 8-1)

C's

# 2 Max Player (ML 30-1)
# 3 Enforceable (ML 30-1)
# 4 Storm the Court (ML 50-1)
# 5 Major Fed (ML 50-1)
# 7 Money Moves (ML 30-1)
# 8 South Bend (ML 50-1)
# 9 Mr. Big News (ML 50-1)
# 11 Necker Island (ML 50-1)
# 12 Sole Volante (ML 30-1)
# 13 Attachment Rate (ML 50-1)

# 14 Winning Impression (ML 50-1)
# 15 Ny Traffic (ML 20-1)

Scratch # 1 Finnick the Fierce (ML 50-1) and # 6 King Guillermo (ML 20-1)

While so much is different about the 2020 version of the Kentucky Derby, one thing that has remained the same is that, as it was in so many prior Derbies, the Morning Line Favorite and most likely winner Saturday is the horse that won the Florida Derby; in this case, Tiz the Law.  Indeed, Tiz the Law has put together an impressive resume, racking up six Wins in his seven career starts.

Tiz the Law looks to be a legitimate Favorite, and probably should be a big ticket single in my play.  But Tiz the Law's one defeat was also his one prior start over this main track.  Which, quite frankly, probably means nothing.  But it could mean everything.

Anyway, if Tiz the Law repeats his performance from last time out, when he won the Travers by as many as he wanted, then he's going to win Saturday.  But if Tiz the Law should regress off that effort, then I think he can be defeated.

Thousand Words is the "other" Baffert; and it would be perhaps the most fitting result for 2020 that the lesser regarded Bob Baffert trainee would win the Kentucky Derby.  Honor A. P. should improve with the increase in distance.

Contrary to many other handicappers, I think Authentic can handle ten furlongs just fine.  In my opinion Authentic's problem last time out was that he was winning too easily and got distracted.  If Authentic keeps his mind on his work, I think Authentic can spring the upset.  So it's four deep for this leg on my main ticket, with everyone else being used as backup "C" Selections.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 17 $1.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4 with 8,9,10 with 1,2,8,9 with 10,16,17,18 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,7,8 with 10 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,4,6 with 1 with 17 $2.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 3,4,5,6,7,10 with 17 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 4 with 10 with 1 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,14,15 $6.00

Total: $62.00

Post Time for Race 11 is 4:39 EDT / 1:39 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo