Race 10 - The Flashy Lady - # 9 Mt. Brave (Final Odds 5.40) - "C" Selection
Race 11 - The Remington Green - # 10 Space Mountain (9.30) - "A" Selection
Race 12 - The Oklahoma Derby - # 11 Owendale (2.10) - "B" Selection
Race 13 - The E. L. Gaylord Memorial - # 3 Trixie Racer (3.00) - "A" Selection
Their last time out, in the Grade 1 Travers, Mucho Gusto was able to get to the line a length and a half in front of Owendale; which is why I gave preference to the Bob Baffert trained # 10 Mucho Gusto (0.90*) in Sunday's Oklahoma Derby. But on a night in which the combo of Trainer Steve Asmussen and Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr were seemingly winning everything that wasn't nailed down, the featured race went to the Brad Cox trained Owendale, with rider Florent Geroux on board; and had I made Owendale my top pick instead of second choice in the Oklahoma Derby, I would have collected Sunday instead of contributing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct All-Stakes Pick Four sequence of 9 / 10 / 11 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $578.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 29, 2019
9/29/19 Remington Park All-Stakes Pick Four - Preview
It's Oklahoma Derby Day at Remington Park, and the good people at Oklahoma City have put together a monster card featuring eight stakes, including two of the Graded variety. So with that as introduction let's just get to it, as I take a run at the All-Stakes Pick Four at Remington Park.
RACE 10 - (F) The Flashy Lady $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Caliente Candy (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Spring Steen (ML 9-5)
# 10 Okie Diva (ML 4-1)
C's
RACE 10 - (F) The Flashy Lady $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Caliente Candy (Morning Line 2-1)
B's
# 1 Spring Steen (ML 9-5)
# 10 Okie Diva (ML 4-1)
C's
# 2 Torri's On My Mind (ML 20-1)
# 3 Poets Dreamed (ML 30-1)
# 4 Lay M Out (ML 20-1)
# 5 Brave Daisey (ML 8-1)
# 8 Violation (ML 20-1)
# 9 Mt. Brave (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 6 Shes Our Fastest (ML 12-1)
Caliente Candy has proven herself to be an expert at today's distance, accumulating five of her six career victories at six furlongs, while finishing in the Exacta seven of the eight times that she's competed at three quarters of a mile.
Spring Steen misses by just a neck of entering this contest with a five race winning streak. Okie Diva can be expected to improve by getting off the grass. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Remington Green $100k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Space Mountain (ML 5-1)
B's
# 1 Keep Quiet (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 2 Popularity (ML 9-2)
# 5 Mr. Misunderstood (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 In the Navy (ML 6-1)
# 4 Lookin At Lee (ML 20-1)
# 6 Blue Harbor (ML 20-1)
# 7 Redatory (ML 20-1)
# 8 Tiz Plus (ML 15-1)
# 9 Turbo Street (Aus) (ML 12-1)
# 11 Net Gain (ML 30-1)
# 12 One Son of a Chief (ML 50-1)
Space Mountain and Keep Quiet (Fr) are two that look as if they will benefit from the increased distance. Popularity is trying the turf for the first time; but as Popularity is a son of Distorted Humor out of a Kris S. mare, I suspect that he will handle the surface switch just fine.
Mr. Misunderstood can win at this level when he puts out his best; the problem is that this Brad Cox conditioned runner often doesn't give anything near his best, as evidenced by his last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 12 - The Oklahoma Derby (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 10 Mucho Gusto (ML 8-5)
B's
# 11 Owendale (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Drifting West (ML 50-1)
# 2 View Magic (ML 30-1)
# 2 View Magic (ML 30-1)
# 3 Bankit (ML 8-1)
# 4 Sleepy Eyes Todd (ML 20-1)
# 6 Funny Guy (ML 10-1)
# 7 Chess Chief (ML 15-1)
# 8 Cairo Cat (ML 20-1)
# 8 Cairo Cat (ML 20-1)
# 9 Long Range Toddy (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Tax (ML 4-1)
No real surprises in this leg, as I'm using the two lowest priced runners on the Morning Line. Mucho Gusto, trained by Bob Baffert, finished in the Trifecta in each of his two most recent starts, the Grade 1 Travers and the Grade 1 Haskell. Owendale, third in the Preakness and winner two starts back of the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, could benefit from the cutback in distance. If you want to halve the price of your main ticket, feel free to drop one or the other; personally, I see no reason to try to pick and choose between them. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 13 - (F) The E. L. Gaylord Memorial $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Trixie Racer (ML 9-2)
B's
# 1 Lone Star Lady (ML 15-1)
# 2 Topless (ML 4-1)
# 6 Henny Fly (ML 5-1)
# 8 Green Destiny (ML 8-5)
C's
# 4 Tap and Spin (ML 30-1)
# 5 Beer Can (ML 20-1)
# 7 Fire of Gold (ML 30-1)
# 5 Beer Can (ML 20-1)
# 7 Fire of Gold (ML 30-1)
# 9 Baby Leche (ML 15-1)
# 10 Twirling Around (ML 20-1)
# 11 Smart Lassie (ML 30-1)
# 11 Smart Lassie (ML 30-1)
# 12 Flat Precious (ML 12-1)
Trixie Racer and Henny Fly won their respective debuts last time out over this main track. Lone Star Lady just might be the quickest in this field; a trait that will come in handy with the rail draw.
Topless may have shown some solid improvement last time out; or she may have just liked the mud. Green Destiny is the only runner in this field with multiple victories. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 10 with 10 with 3 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,7,10 with 1,2,5,10 with 10,11 with 1,2,3,6,8 $60.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,5,8,9 with 10 with 10 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,6,7,8,9,11,12 with 10 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 10 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 3 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 10 with 10 with 4,5,7,9,10,11,12 $3.50
Total: $75.50
Post Time for Race 10 is 8:21 EDT / 5:21 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 21, 2019
9/21/19 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Youvesaiditall (Final Odds 2.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Cliff's Place (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Council Rules (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Texas Troubador (3.90) - "A" Selection
Not much to say regarding Saturday's results, as there were no surprises among the four victors, with none paying double digits in the Win pool. Certainly upgrading Youvesaiditall in the opening leg from a "B" Selection to an "A" Selection would have made the overall result more palatable; but, even in retrospect, Youvesaiditall looks to me more like a "C" Selection than a top pick.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 My True Reward (6.70) - $55.85 Finish: 7th
# 2 Tres Chiflados (7.00) - $66.90 Finish: 10th
# 5 Punch Out (3.10*) - $28.15 Finish: 4th
# 8 Moro Appeal (15.20) - $100.85 Finish: 3rd
# 12 Airedale (4.10) - $34.95 Finish: 12th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 2 / 10 which paid $27.60 for a fifty cent wager; less than half my initial investment of $60.50. So while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Cliff's Place (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 2 Council Rules (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Texas Troubador (3.90) - "A" Selection
Not much to say regarding Saturday's results, as there were no surprises among the four victors, with none paying double digits in the Win pool. Certainly upgrading Youvesaiditall in the opening leg from a "B" Selection to an "A" Selection would have made the overall result more palatable; but, even in retrospect, Youvesaiditall looks to me more like a "C" Selection than a top pick.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other five runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 1 My True Reward (6.70) - $55.85 Finish: 7th
# 2 Tres Chiflados (7.00) - $66.90 Finish: 10th
# 5 Punch Out (3.10*) - $28.15 Finish: 4th
# 8 Moro Appeal (15.20) - $100.85 Finish: 3rd
# 12 Airedale (4.10) - $34.95 Finish: 12th
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Primetime Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 2 / 10 which paid $27.60 for a fifty cent wager; less than half my initial investment of $60.50. So while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/21/19 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview
First a quick head's up that next weekend Remington Park will be hosting the 2019 edition of Oklahoma Derby Day on Sunday afternoon, September 29. Good Lord willing I'll be playing that card, which will feature a half dozen stakes in addition to the Grade 3 $400k Oklahoma Derby. So don't spend any time looking here for selections for Saturday, September 28, as there won't be any; as all of next weekend's prognostications will be focused on Sunday's card. And with that programming note out of the way let's get to tonight's action, as I take another run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Alpha to Omega (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 3 Kwik (ML 12-1)
# 6 Kenai Bob (ML 6-1)
# 7 Youvesaiditall (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Euramaster (ML 5-2)
# 2 Main Road (ML 4-1)
# 4 Giant Pulpit (ML 15-1)
Alpha to Omega (not to be confused with Alpha and Omega, who ran at this track in Race 6 last Saturday) graduated last time out by a comfortable enough margin to suggest that he will do well here. Also note that Alpha to Omega trainer Karl Broberg tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners.
Kwik and Youvesaiditall filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Kenai Bob ships in from Canterbury Park, and had a fine work over this main track back on the 12th. Kenai Bob has finished in the Trifecta in seven of his eight career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Cliff's Place (ML 6-5)
B's
# 8 Abstract Paynter (ML 8-5)
C's
# 1 Talk Big Money (ML 30-1)
# 2 Danzing River (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hesa Pegasus (ML 50-1)
# 5 Sournois (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bad Boy Kenny (ML 30-1)
# 7 Willyoustandforme (ML 30-1)
# 9 Easy So Easy (ML 50-1)
Scratch # 10 Linus (ML 5-1)
Those among you who note such things should be aware that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $10k, $2.5k above the rest of the field. The five Oklahoma breds in this race are: Talk Big Money; Danzing River; Hesa Pegasus; Bad Boy Kenny; and Willyoustandforme.
Cliff's Place, sired by Gemologist, was purchased as a yearling for $170k at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale back in 2016; so to say that Cliff's Place has had a disappointing career is putting it mildly. Still, Cliff's Place did take the Show while sprinting at this class level last time out, and Cliff's Place has finished in the Trifecta in the past while routing.
Abstract Paynter should benefit from the class drop, and his form looks much better if you ignore the turf starts. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Council Rules (ML 1-1)
B’s
# 5 Sundance Seven (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Five Butterflies (ML 20-1)
# 3 Assembled Lady (ML 15-1)
# 4 Misty Journey (ML 20-1)
# 6 Sunshine Cake (ML 5-2)
# 7 Maryblueeyes (ML 12-1)
# 8 My Holiday (ML 10-1)
# 9 Quiet Flattering (ML 12-1)
The claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this race is $6.25k; or, at least, it would be were there any Oklahoma breds in this contest.
Council Rules, who took the Place against classier stock in each of her last two races, should probably be a big ticket single here; and if you're looking to cut costs, halving the price of my main ticket may prove to be a good way to go. But I talked myself into using Sundance Seven because she's run well in the past on off tracks; and also because Sundance Seven projects to be the one running best late in a field that's filled with a bunch of early speed. So onto the big ticket goes Sundance Seven; with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Texas Troubador (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 My True Reward (ML 10-1)
# 2 Tres Chiflados (ML 12-1)
# 5 Punch Out (ML 7-2)
# 8 Moro Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 12 Airedale (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Colonel Bowie (ML 15-1)
# 4 Flyin' Easy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Swine Dawg (ML 30-1)
# 7 Bling Couture (ML 20-1)
# 9 Golden Heat (ML 30-1)
# 11 Last Can (ML 15-1)
These are juveniles; and as none were bred in Oklahoma, it really doesn't matter that claiming an Oklahoma bred from this race would have cost you $30k, rather than $25k.
Texas Troubador and Moro Appeal filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. My True Reward missed victory by less than a length in his debut at Lone Star two starts back, and is now dropping in for a tag for the first time. Tres Chiflados took the Show against non-Claiming Maidens at Canterbury Park last time out.
Punch Out is making his debut here; and you have to figure that when he was bought at Keeneland for $100k in November 2017, it wasn't with the idea that he would be offered for sale for just a quarter of that purchase price his first time out. But while Punch Out may not be a world beater, he seems to have been working well enough to compete at this class level.
Airedale is another debut runner who has been working well of late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 2 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,8,10,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 4 with 2 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2 with 3,4,6,7,9,11 $3.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Alpha to Omega (Morning Line 9-5)
B's
# 3 Kwik (ML 12-1)
# 6 Kenai Bob (ML 6-1)
# 7 Youvesaiditall (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Euramaster (ML 5-2)
# 2 Main Road (ML 4-1)
# 4 Giant Pulpit (ML 15-1)
Alpha to Omega (not to be confused with Alpha and Omega, who ran at this track in Race 6 last Saturday) graduated last time out by a comfortable enough margin to suggest that he will do well here. Also note that Alpha to Omega trainer Karl Broberg tends to do well when placing his last out maiden winners.
Kwik and Youvesaiditall filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. Kenai Bob ships in from Canterbury Park, and had a fine work over this main track back on the 12th. Kenai Bob has finished in the Trifecta in seven of his eight career starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Md $7.5k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Cliff's Place (ML 6-5)
B's
# 8 Abstract Paynter (ML 8-5)
C's
# 1 Talk Big Money (ML 30-1)
# 2 Danzing River (ML 20-1)
# 3 Hesa Pegasus (ML 50-1)
# 5 Sournois (ML 8-1)
# 6 Bad Boy Kenny (ML 30-1)
# 7 Willyoustandforme (ML 30-1)
# 9 Easy So Easy (ML 50-1)
Scratch # 10 Linus (ML 5-1)
Those among you who note such things should be aware that the claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this contest is $10k, $2.5k above the rest of the field. The five Oklahoma breds in this race are: Talk Big Money; Danzing River; Hesa Pegasus; Bad Boy Kenny; and Willyoustandforme.
Cliff's Place, sired by Gemologist, was purchased as a yearling for $170k at the Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale back in 2016; so to say that Cliff's Place has had a disappointing career is putting it mildly. Still, Cliff's Place did take the Show while sprinting at this class level last time out, and Cliff's Place has finished in the Trifecta in the past while routing.
Abstract Paynter should benefit from the class drop, and his form looks much better if you ignore the turf starts. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - (F) Clm $5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Council Rules (ML 1-1)
B’s
# 5 Sundance Seven (ML 15-1)
C's
# 1 Five Butterflies (ML 20-1)
# 3 Assembled Lady (ML 15-1)
# 4 Misty Journey (ML 20-1)
# 6 Sunshine Cake (ML 5-2)
# 7 Maryblueeyes (ML 12-1)
# 8 My Holiday (ML 10-1)
# 9 Quiet Flattering (ML 12-1)
The claiming price for Oklahoma breds in this race is $6.25k; or, at least, it would be were there any Oklahoma breds in this contest.
Council Rules, who took the Place against classier stock in each of her last two races, should probably be a big ticket single here; and if you're looking to cut costs, halving the price of my main ticket may prove to be a good way to go. But I talked myself into using Sundance Seven because she's run well in the past on off tracks; and also because Sundance Seven projects to be the one running best late in a field that's filled with a bunch of early speed. So onto the big ticket goes Sundance Seven; with the rest of the field being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - Md $25k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Texas Troubador (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 My True Reward (ML 10-1)
# 2 Tres Chiflados (ML 12-1)
# 5 Punch Out (ML 7-2)
# 8 Moro Appeal (ML 8-1)
# 12 Airedale (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Colonel Bowie (ML 15-1)
# 4 Flyin' Easy (ML 30-1)
# 6 Swine Dawg (ML 30-1)
# 7 Bling Couture (ML 20-1)
# 9 Golden Heat (ML 30-1)
# 11 Last Can (ML 15-1)
These are juveniles; and as none were bred in Oklahoma, it really doesn't matter that claiming an Oklahoma bred from this race would have cost you $30k, rather than $25k.
Texas Troubador and Moro Appeal filled out the bottom two rungs of the Trifecta at this class level last time out. My True Reward missed victory by less than a length in his debut at Lone Star two starts back, and is now dropping in for a tag for the first time. Tres Chiflados took the Show against non-Claiming Maidens at Canterbury Park last time out.
Punch Out is making his debut here; and you have to figure that when he was bought at Keeneland for $100k in November 2017, it wasn't with the idea that he would be offered for sale for just a quarter of that purchase price his first time out. But while Punch Out may not be a world beater, he seems to have been working well enough to compete at this class level.
Airedale is another debut runner who has been working well of late. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 2 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,5,6,7 with 4,8 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,8,10,12 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4 with 4 with 2 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,9 with 2 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4 with 2 with 3,4,6,7,9,11 $3.00
Total: $60.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 14, 2019
9/14/19 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 1 Texas Munny Man (Final Odds 1.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Cash in the Ticket (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Tale Twister (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Gray Hope (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Rather formful results for my introduction to the circuit. On such evenings, it's easy to look back and say that I invested too much cash into my play. But truth be told, had I cut back on the main ticket, Gray Hope in the nightcap almost certainly would have been the first one cut, leaving me with nothing to cash.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Disinclined (20.50) - $564.60 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Cosmic Halo (4.00) - $257.40 Finish: 5th
# 10 Promontory (3.20) - $157.95 Finish: 2nd
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 3 / 1 / 9 which paid $89.40 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is somewhat less than my initial investment of $109. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Cash in the Ticket (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 1 Tale Twister (7.10) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Gray Hope (1.40*) - "B" Selection
Rather formful results for my introduction to the circuit. On such evenings, it's easy to look back and say that I invested too much cash into my play. But truth be told, had I cut back on the main ticket, Gray Hope in the nightcap almost certainly would have been the first one cut, leaving me with nothing to cash.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other three runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 3 Disinclined (20.50) - $564.60 Finish: 3rd
# 5 Cosmic Halo (4.00) - $257.40 Finish: 5th
# 10 Promontory (3.20) - $157.95 Finish: 2nd
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 1 / 3 / 1 / 9 which paid $89.40 for a fifty cent wager; an amount which is somewhat less than my initial investment of $109. And while cashing at a loss definitely beats not cashing at all, it's certainly not what I had in mind when I placed my bets.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/14/19 Remington Park Primetime Pick Four - Preview
As foretold and forewarned, being priced out of the Southern California thoroughbreds due to Los Alamitos' one dollar Pick Four minimum, I have chosen to try my luck in the great state of Oklahoma. Now I'm sure all of you are right now asking the same question: "Is Oklahoma Midwest?" Allow me to let these folks answer:
Moving on to other matters, this evening's sequence is primarily focused upon runners who have been Winner's Circle shy, as seventy-five percent of the contests are for winners of one or none. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.
RACE 6 - Clm $15k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Texas Munny Man (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Alpha and Omega (ML 15-1)
# 7 Mallory's Bandit (ML 1-1)
C's
# 3 Fred C (ML 30-1)
# 6 Tre Lee Divine (ML 20-1)
# 8 Meme Jo (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bluecollarman (ML 12-1)
# 10 Cheers and Prayers (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Game Loading (ML 5-1) and # 5 Duke of Kent (ML 15-1)
Texas Munny Man looks quick enough to take advantage of the rail draw, and Texas Munny Man should benefit from the class drop. Alpha and Omega could be the one running best late. Or not. Alpha and Omega really could finish either first or last; though probably not both.
Mallory's Bandit drops in for a tag after winning an N2X Allowance contest at tonight's distance over this turf course last time out; which makes Mallory's Bandit clearly the best on paper. But why would you offer an N2X Allowance winner up for sale for $15k? As regards the rest of the field, I'll be using them as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Cash in the Ticket (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Deja Crew (ML 3-1)
# 10 No Lak of Memories (ML 10-1)
# 11 Whiskey Doctor (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Absaroka (ML 6-1)
# 4 Medicine Man (ML 30-1)
# 5 Poppy's Oats (ML 8-1)
# 6 Doctor H W (ML 20-1)
# 7 Real Easy (ML 50-1)
# 8 What Thinking (ML 15-1)
# 9 Mighty Bugsy (ML 20-1)
Cash in the Ticket made his 2019 debut last time out, and should benefit from going second off the layoff. Deja Crew took the Place against open non-Claiming Maidens on the Canterbury turf last time out.
No Lak of Memories and Whiskey Doctor both took the Show in separate contests last time out in their respective debuts. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Pollux (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Tale Twister (ML 4-1)
# 8 Algebra (ML 9-2)
# 12 Muni Muni Slew (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Slew Tang Clan (ML 15-1)
# 4 Special Bingo (ML 20-1)
# 5 Be Not Afraid (ML 6-1)
# 6 Free Play (ML 8-1)
# 7 Medal Maker (ML 30-1)
# 9 Downtown Brown (ML 15-1)
# 10 Flexati (ML 30-1)
# 11 Infinite Jetsetter (ML 20-1)
These are juveniles, with nine of the entrants making their first career start. I plan on using three of those nine on my main ticket: Pollux and Muni Muni Slew, both trained by C.R. Trout; and Algebra, trained by Danny Pish.
Tale Twister is the one experienced runner that'll be on my main ticket, as I think Tale Twister will be much improved with the return to dirt. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Promontory (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Disinclined (ML 12-1)
# 5 Cosmic Halo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gray Hope (ML 5-2)
C's
Is Oklahoma Midwest? pic.twitter.com/jY1Affki2z— Around The Horn (@AroundtheHorn) July 25, 2017
Moving on to other matters, this evening's sequence is primarily focused upon runners who have been Winner's Circle shy, as seventy-five percent of the contests are for winners of one or none. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Primetime Pick Four at Remington Park.
RACE 6 - Clm $15k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Texas Munny Man (Morning Line 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Alpha and Omega (ML 15-1)
# 7 Mallory's Bandit (ML 1-1)
C's
# 3 Fred C (ML 30-1)
# 6 Tre Lee Divine (ML 20-1)
# 8 Meme Jo (ML 8-1)
# 9 Bluecollarman (ML 12-1)
# 10 Cheers and Prayers (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 2 Game Loading (ML 5-1) and # 5 Duke of Kent (ML 15-1)
Texas Munny Man looks quick enough to take advantage of the rail draw, and Texas Munny Man should benefit from the class drop. Alpha and Omega could be the one running best late. Or not. Alpha and Omega really could finish either first or last; though probably not both.
Mallory's Bandit drops in for a tag after winning an N2X Allowance contest at tonight's distance over this turf course last time out; which makes Mallory's Bandit clearly the best on paper. But why would you offer an N2X Allowance winner up for sale for $15k? As regards the rest of the field, I'll be using them as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 7 - [S] MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Cash in the Ticket (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Deja Crew (ML 3-1)
# 10 No Lak of Memories (ML 10-1)
# 11 Whiskey Doctor (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Absaroka (ML 6-1)
# 4 Medicine Man (ML 30-1)
# 5 Poppy's Oats (ML 8-1)
# 6 Doctor H W (ML 20-1)
# 7 Real Easy (ML 50-1)
# 8 What Thinking (ML 15-1)
# 9 Mighty Bugsy (ML 20-1)
Cash in the Ticket made his 2019 debut last time out, and should benefit from going second off the layoff. Deja Crew took the Place against open non-Claiming Maidens on the Canterbury turf last time out.
No Lak of Memories and Whiskey Doctor both took the Show in separate contests last time out in their respective debuts. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Pollux (ML 6-1)
B's
# 1 Tale Twister (ML 4-1)
# 8 Algebra (ML 9-2)
# 12 Muni Muni Slew (ML 3-1)
C's
# 2 Slew Tang Clan (ML 15-1)
# 4 Special Bingo (ML 20-1)
# 5 Be Not Afraid (ML 6-1)
# 6 Free Play (ML 8-1)
# 7 Medal Maker (ML 30-1)
# 9 Downtown Brown (ML 15-1)
# 10 Flexati (ML 30-1)
# 11 Infinite Jetsetter (ML 20-1)
These are juveniles, with nine of the entrants making their first career start. I plan on using three of those nine on my main ticket: Pollux and Muni Muni Slew, both trained by C.R. Trout; and Algebra, trained by Danny Pish.
Tale Twister is the one experienced runner that'll be on my main ticket, as I think Tale Twister will be much improved with the return to dirt. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - Clm $15k N2L - Seven and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Promontory (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 3 Disinclined (ML 12-1)
# 5 Cosmic Halo (ML 12-1)
# 9 Gray Hope (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Istan Warrior (ML 20-1)
# 2 Coconut Ice (ML 20-1)
# 4 Lookin Good (ML 12-1)
# 8 He's a Shore Bet (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 6 Morhawk (ML 4-1) and # 7 Culper (ML 9-2)
Promontory missed victory by just a length at this class level last time out, and Promonto could benefit from the cutback in distance. Disinclined joins the barn of Trainer Mindy Willis, who tends to do well with newcomers.
Cosmic Halo took the Show behind a next out winner at this approximate class level two starts back. Gray Hope goes second off the claim for Trainer Steve Asmussen, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,7 with 2,3,10,11 with 1,3,8,12 with 3,5,9,10 $96.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,6,8,9,10 with 3 with 3 with 10 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 3 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 2,4,5,6,7,9,10,11 with 10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 3 with 1,2,4,8 $2.00
Total: $109.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 10:27 EDT / 7:27 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 7, 2019
9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Turf Sprint - # 10 Totally Boss (Final Odds 4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Ladies Turf - # 9 Ms Bad Behavior (7.30) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Ladies Sprint - # 7 Morticia (5.00) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup - # 9 Zulu Alpha (2.10) - "B" Selection
Turf racing in general tends to be more difficult to handicap than thoroughbreds on the dirt. Boutique meets are always difficult; and the unique layout of the Kentucky Downs turf course makes handicapping there even more of a challenge. So with all those obstacles standing in the way of victory, it's very tempting to claim that superior handicapping skill was what led to Saturday's favorable result.
But, truth be told, a lot of luck and good fortune was behind Saturday's win; as the first three victors in the sequence simply rode a early speed bias, while the featured final race was perhaps the most formfully run contest on the afternoon. But no matter; be it good handicapping or good luck, the bottom line is that Saturday was a day for me to cash instead of contribute.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other two runners to which I would have cashed in the nightcap:
# 10 Arklow (1.60*) - $588.80 Finish: 2nd
# 11 Campaign (4.20) - $834.50 Finish: 3rd
But that's what might have been. What actually came to be was a correct Late Pick Four sequence of 10 / 9 / 7 / 9 which paid $431.95 for a fifty cent wager. That makes for a profit of $298.45 on my initial $133.50 investment; or approximate odds of 2.235-1.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/19 Kentucky Downs Late Pick Four - Preview
The thoroughbred horse racing circuit in Southern California moves onto Los Alamitos Race Course; where, courtesy of their one dollar minimum Pick Fours, I am priced out of the game. So my action moves elsewhere; and for those of you who like to look ahead, good Lord willing next week will see me playing Remington Park in Oklahoma City. As for today, what better spot to play than the track less than an hour away from Music City; especially on Kentucky Turf Cup Day, where the final four contests on the card are all Graded Stakes. So with all that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Kentucky Downs in Franklin, Kentucky.
RACE 7 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Stormy Liberal (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 3 Imprimis (ML 4-1)
# 8 Leinster (ML 3-1)
# 10 Totally Boss (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Wet Your Whistle (ML 8-1)
# 2 Cautious Giant (ML 15-1)
# 4 Smart Remark (ML 20-1)
# 5 Undrafted (ML 10-1)
# 6 White Flag (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jazzy Times (ML 15-1)
Stormy Liberal, Show runner in the Grade 3 Green Flash at Del Mar last time out, could move up with the increase in real estate. Imprimis may need a race upon his return from Ascot; but Imprimis certainly has the class to win here.
Leinster and Totally Boss are both trained by Rusty Arnold; and as both are coming off solid stakes victories last time out, I see no reason to try to choose between the two. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Ladies Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Simply Breathless (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Storm the Hill (ML 3-1)
# 7 Mitchell Road (ML 5-2)
# 9 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Kallio (ML 10-1)
# 4 Viva Vegas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sensitive (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Coachwhip (ML 20-1)
Simply Breathless (GB) found nine and a half furlongs a distance too far last time out in the Grade 3 Modesty; but she still hung on for the Show. I expect Simply Breathless to be much improved today with the reduction in real estate. Storm the Hill, Show runner behind Simply Breathless in the Grade 3 Wilshire back in June, could turn the tables on that rival, as Storm the Hill may not have been in top form for the Wilshire, coming as she was off a half-year layoff.
Mitchell Road can have her last outing forgiven as she was simply out classed. Ms Bad Behavior is another whose form is much improved by ignoring her most recent start. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Ladies Sprint (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Painting Corners (ML 8-1)
B's
# 3 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Morticia (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cool Beans (ML 10-1)
# 10 Ruby Notion (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Raven's Lady (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Pastime (ML 20-1)
# 4 A Little Bit Me (ML 10-1)
# 5 Coexistence (ML 15-1)
# 9 Tiny Tina (ML 10-1)
# 11 Stillwater Cove (ML 20-1)
# 12 May Lily (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 La Dame Blanche (ML 20-1); # 14 Therighttobeararms (ML 50-1); # 15 She's All Skeet (ML 30-1)
Painting Corners appears to be entering this contest in top form; and Painting Corners has run well at this distance in the past. Oleksandra (Aus) enters this contest having won three of her last four starts; and Oleksandra looks well meant here.
Morticia has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of her last eight starts; but Morticia is just too classy to not use on the main ticket. Cool Beans looks outclassed here; but Cool Beans could benefit from the cutback in distance, and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Brad Cox / Florent Geroux is doing too well to ignore.
Ruby Notion won last year's running of this contest; though if one was looking to save some coin by dropping her from the main ticket, such a decision could be justified by Ruby Notion having finished behind Oleksandra in each of her last two starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A's
# 10 Arklow (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 Zulu Alpha (ML 9-2)
# 11 Campaign (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Bostwana (ML 20-1)
# 2 My Boy Jack (ML 12-1)
# 3 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)
# 4 Gliding Alone (ML 50-1)
# 6 Factor This (ML 12-1)
# 7 Pillar Mountain (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 8 Hello Don Julio (ML 15-1)
# 12 Noble Thought (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Bigger Picture (ML 8-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Golden Dragon (ML 50-1) and # 14 Zero Gravity (ML 30-1)
Arklow, winner of last year's running of this event, is Graded Stakes placed in each of his last three starts, crossing under the wire less than a length behind the winner in each contest. Zulu Alpha was less than a length away from Arklow at the wire last time out, and Zulu Alpha missed victory in the Grade 1 United Nations by just a neck two starts back.
Campaign has won both times that he's competed over this turf course; so Campaign is definitely not disadvantaged by the change in surface. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,8,9,10 with 2,5,7,9 with 3,6,7,8,10 with 9,10,11 $120.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,6,8 with 6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,9,11,12 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,12 $4.00
Total: $133.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:53 EDT / 1:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Turf Sprint (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Turf
A's
# 9 Stormy Liberal (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 3 Imprimis (ML 4-1)
# 8 Leinster (ML 3-1)
# 10 Totally Boss (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Wet Your Whistle (ML 8-1)
# 2 Cautious Giant (ML 15-1)
# 4 Smart Remark (ML 20-1)
# 5 Undrafted (ML 10-1)
# 6 White Flag (ML 8-1)
# 7 Jazzy Times (ML 15-1)
Stormy Liberal, Show runner in the Grade 3 Green Flash at Del Mar last time out, could move up with the increase in real estate. Imprimis may need a race upon his return from Ascot; but Imprimis certainly has the class to win here.
Leinster and Totally Boss are both trained by Rusty Arnold; and as both are coming off solid stakes victories last time out, I see no reason to try to choose between the two. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - (F) The Ladies Turf (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Simply Breathless (GB) (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Storm the Hill (ML 3-1)
# 7 Mitchell Road (ML 5-2)
# 9 Ms Bad Behavior (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Kallio (ML 10-1)
# 4 Viva Vegas (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lynne's Legacy (ML 12-1)
# 8 Sensitive (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 1 Coachwhip (ML 20-1)
Simply Breathless (GB) found nine and a half furlongs a distance too far last time out in the Grade 3 Modesty; but she still hung on for the Show. I expect Simply Breathless to be much improved today with the reduction in real estate. Storm the Hill, Show runner behind Simply Breathless in the Grade 3 Wilshire back in June, could turn the tables on that rival, as Storm the Hill may not have been in top form for the Wilshire, coming as she was off a half-year layoff.
Mitchell Road can have her last outing forgiven as she was simply out classed. Ms Bad Behavior is another whose form is much improved by ignoring her most recent start. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Ladies Sprint (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 Painting Corners (ML 8-1)
B's
# 3 Oleksandra (Aus) (ML 3-1)
# 7 Morticia (ML 4-1)
# 8 Cool Beans (ML 10-1)
# 10 Ruby Notion (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Raven's Lady (GB) (ML 15-1)
# 2 Pastime (ML 20-1)
# 4 A Little Bit Me (ML 10-1)
# 5 Coexistence (ML 15-1)
# 9 Tiny Tina (ML 10-1)
# 11 Stillwater Cove (ML 20-1)
# 12 May Lily (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles: # 13 La Dame Blanche (ML 20-1); # 14 Therighttobeararms (ML 50-1); # 15 She's All Skeet (ML 30-1)
Painting Corners appears to be entering this contest in top form; and Painting Corners has run well at this distance in the past. Oleksandra (Aus) enters this contest having won three of her last four starts; and Oleksandra looks well meant here.
Morticia has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of her last eight starts; but Morticia is just too classy to not use on the main ticket. Cool Beans looks outclassed here; but Cool Beans could benefit from the cutback in distance, and the Trainer / Jockey combo of Brad Cox / Florent Geroux is doing too well to ignore.
Ruby Notion won last year's running of this contest; though if one was looking to save some coin by dropping her from the main ticket, such a decision could be justified by Ruby Notion having finished behind Oleksandra in each of her last two starts. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 10 - The Kentucky Turf Cup (Grade 3) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A's
# 10 Arklow (ML 5-2)
B's
# 9 Zulu Alpha (ML 9-2)
# 11 Campaign (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Bostwana (ML 20-1)
# 2 My Boy Jack (ML 12-1)
# 3 Blended Citizen (ML 15-1)
# 4 Gliding Alone (ML 50-1)
# 6 Factor This (ML 12-1)
# 7 Pillar Mountain (Ire) (ML 10-1)
# 8 Hello Don Julio (ML 15-1)
# 12 Noble Thought (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 5 Bigger Picture (ML 8-1) as well as the Also Eligibles; # 13 Golden Dragon (ML 50-1) and # 14 Zero Gravity (ML 30-1)
Arklow, winner of last year's running of this event, is Graded Stakes placed in each of his last three starts, crossing under the wire less than a length behind the winner in each contest. Zulu Alpha was less than a length away from Arklow at the wire last time out, and Zulu Alpha missed victory in the Grade 1 United Nations by just a neck two starts back.
Campaign has won both times that he's competed over this turf course; so Campaign is definitely not disadvantaged by the change in surface. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,8,9,10 with 2,5,7,9 with 3,6,7,8,10 with 9,10,11 $120.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,5,6,7 with 2 with 6 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 3,4,6,8 with 6 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,4,5,9,11,12 with 10 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 6 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,12 $4.00
Total: $133.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 4:53 EDT / 1:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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