Race 6 - The Cecil B DeMille - # 10 Conquest Typhoon (Final Odds 1.00*) - "A+" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Heir of Storm (9.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Matriarch - # 3 La Tia (2.30) - "A+" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Firing Line ($0.50*) - "A+" Selection
We covered half the field in the second leg of today's Pick Four sequence; unfortunately, it was the wrong half. We were smart enough to not think too highly of the chances of Morning Line and Post Time Favorite # 8 Midnight Hawk (1.20*), but we weren't very smart in the choice of horses with which we attempted to beat him, as all our selections in Race 7 finished well behind Midnight Hawk, who made a late move to take the Show, two lengths back of the winner, and a length and a half behind Place horse # 4 Chief Lion (37.30). So for the second day in a row, despite holding three Aces, we completely whiff on one of the legs, turning all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 10 / 3 / 3 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $123.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 30, 2014
11/30/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
It's closing day for Del Mar's Bing Crosby Meet; and regardless of how you measure such things, it certainly proved to be successful. Since it's closing day there'll be a mandatory payout in the Pick Six pool; with a carryover from Saturday to boot. But that's not where we'll be swimming, as per our usual we take a run at the Pick Four.
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Conquest Typhoon (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 7 Rock Shandy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Stormy Liberal (ML 12-1)
# 9 Papacoolpapacool (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Soul Driver (ML 15-1)
# 6 Daddy D T (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
With the scratch of Daddy D T, Conquest Typhoon stands out as the clear class of this field, being the only runner with a Graded Stakes victory. Conquest Typhoon also was not embarrassed by his effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, closing well to just miss the Show. That ability to come from behind should come in handy today, as there looks to be a lot of early speed in this contest.
Rock Shandy showed a lot of heart while breaking his maiden last time out, fighting back after losing the lead in the stretch. Rock Shandy is also the only entrant here (with the scratch of Daddy D T) with a Win over this turf course.
Stormy Liberal looked impressive winning his last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita, as he did so in wire-to-wire fashion (those contests tend to favor runners coming from off the pace). Papacoolpapacool showed fine form two starts back, finishing less than a length behind Daddy D T in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf. Soul Driver, who showed a lot of heart holding on to win last time out, should appreciate the turn back in distance.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Rolling Fog (ML 3-1)
# 7 My Slew (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Syndicated (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Alberts Hope (ML 15-1)
# 8 Midnight Hawk (ML 5-2)
RACE 6 - The Cecil B DeMille (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Conquest Typhoon (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 7 Rock Shandy (ML 15-1)
# 8 Stormy Liberal (ML 12-1)
# 9 Papacoolpapacool (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Soul Driver (ML 15-1)
# 6 Daddy D T (ML 5-2) has been scratched.
With the scratch of Daddy D T, Conquest Typhoon stands out as the clear class of this field, being the only runner with a Graded Stakes victory. Conquest Typhoon also was not embarrassed by his effort in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, closing well to just miss the Show. That ability to come from behind should come in handy today, as there looks to be a lot of early speed in this contest.
Rock Shandy showed a lot of heart while breaking his maiden last time out, fighting back after losing the lead in the stretch. Rock Shandy is also the only entrant here (with the scratch of Daddy D T) with a Win over this turf course.
Stormy Liberal looked impressive winning his last time out charging down the hill at Santa Anita, as he did so in wire-to-wire fashion (those contests tend to favor runners coming from off the pace). Papacoolpapacool showed fine form two starts back, finishing less than a length behind Daddy D T in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf. Soul Driver, who showed a lot of heart holding on to win last time out, should appreciate the turn back in distance.
RACE 7 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Rolling Fog (ML 3-1)
# 7 My Slew (ML 5-1)
B's
# 5 Syndicated (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Alberts Hope (ML 15-1)
# 8 Midnight Hawk (ML 5-2)
Rolling Fog, two-for-two lifetime on the Del Mar main track, returns after an absence of over two years. Trainer Bob Baffert does very well with such. My Slew is two-for-four lifetime over this main track, and took the Show in his last start on the plastic, at today's class level.
Syndicated took the Show three starts back at this class level. Alberts Hope won the Grade 2 Best Pal over this main track last year, and should benefit from what appears to be an over-abundance of early speed in this field.
Midnight Hawk, another Bob Baffert trainee, looks very much like a runner who is in this race as a prep for something else. This is not Midnight Hawk's preferred distance, nor is is really his surface (though he did break his maiden on the fake stuff at Hollywood Park in his debut). Midnight Hawk has the class where he could win this race anyway, but it appears that he was entered here primarily to get him ready for his next start.
RACE 8 - (F) The Matriarch (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 La Tia (ML 5-2)
# 5 Discreet Marq (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 9-2)
La Tia, winner of the Grade 3 Athenia last time out, could steal this one on the front end, as she should be the quickest to the early lead. Expect Discreet Marq, winner of last year's Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks over this turf course, to be sitting right outside her flank, ready to pounce at the most opportune time.
Strathnaver (GB) and Queen of The Sand (Ire) are both capable of winning at this level; but as both prefer to come from the back of the pack, expect them to be compromised by the relative lack of early pace contained in this field.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Blue Harbor (ML 5-1)
# 4 Firing Line (ML 5-2)
# 9 Big Hat Charlie (ML 8-1)
B's
# 5 Go Trumpy Go (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 8 Ideal (ML 12-1)
# 10 Vicious (ML 12-1)
# 11 Passinaflash (ML 12-1)
Firing Line just missed in his debut last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure well above par for non-Claiming Maidens. Runners for Trainer Simon Callaghan tend not to move forward on their second start, but all Firing Line needs to do is to run back to his last performance, and he should win easily. EXCEPT, that race was on real dirt, and there's no way to know how Firing Line will take to the polytrack (and, thank the Good Lord, this is the last SoCal race I'll have to handicap where I'll have to try to guess how a horse will handle a synthetic surface). So, because there's no way to know how Firing Line will run on the fake stuff, we need to spread wide here.
Big Hat Charlie is a second-time starter for Trainer Jeff Bonde, whose runners tend to improve markedly the second time around. Blue Harbor's workouts over this main track suggest that he's ready to roll.
Go Trumpy Go is a first time starter for Trainer Peter Miller sired by War Front. First time starters for Miller tend to do rather well; progeny of War Front somewhat less so.
Ideal is a first time starter for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and therefore deserving of respect just for that attribute. Vicious and Passinaflash are a pair of second time starters who showed some early foot in their respective debuts, and might (or might not) enjoy competing on the synthetic surface.
OK, that's the analysis. In addition to playing our tickets via the usual Crist method, we're also going to punch in a sort of "A+" ticket for a buck; just to protect ourselves against an all-chalk outcome. So with that, we get:
All A+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 6 with 3 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $12.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P4: 7,8,9 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 2 with 3,4,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 5 $2.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 7,8,9 with 5 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8,9 with 6,7 with 2 with 3,4,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7,8,9 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 5 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 2 with 3,4,9 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 10 with 5 with 3,5 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 2 with 5 $1.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 1,8 with 3,5 with 3,4,9 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 1 with 3,4,9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 10 with 6,7 with 3,5 with 8,10,11 $6.00
Total: $87.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 29, 2014
11/29/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - The Jimmy Durante - # 4 Ol' Fashion Gal (Final Odds 21.80) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Magic Lily (7.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Hollywood Derby - # 5 California Chrome (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Rattataptap (5.70) - "A" Selection
First things first: our heartiest congratulations to California Chrome, whose performance today on the turf mirrored his magnificent efforts this Spring when he won three Grade Ones in a row on dirt. California Chrome now joins this guy as (to the best of my knowledge) the only horses to win a Grade 1 on the grass the same year that they won the Kentucky Derby. So again congrats to California Chrome, Trainer Art Sherman, and Owners Coburn & Martin, for closing out a magnificent year in style.
As to our Pick Four play, we also closed out in style, getting three "A" Selections home in the final three legs. Unfortunately our single "A" in the opening leg, # 2 Rainha Da Bateria (1.40*), despite (in the words of Track Announcer Trevor Denman) "coming like an express train" through the stretch, could not reach the Winner in time, and lost by a neck. And that neck was all it took to turn all our tickets into trash, 'cos three Aces all by themselves isn't a good enough hand; you have to connect four in order to collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1,808.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 Magic Lily (7.80) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Hollywood Derby - # 5 California Chrome (0.70*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 10 Rattataptap (5.70) - "A" Selection
First things first: our heartiest congratulations to California Chrome, whose performance today on the turf mirrored his magnificent efforts this Spring when he won three Grade Ones in a row on dirt. California Chrome now joins this guy as (to the best of my knowledge) the only horses to win a Grade 1 on the grass the same year that they won the Kentucky Derby. So again congrats to California Chrome, Trainer Art Sherman, and Owners Coburn & Martin, for closing out a magnificent year in style.
As to our Pick Four play, we also closed out in style, getting three "A" Selections home in the final three legs. Unfortunately our single "A" in the opening leg, # 2 Rainha Da Bateria (1.40*), despite (in the words of Track Announcer Trevor Denman) "coming like an express train" through the stretch, could not reach the Winner in time, and lost by a neck. And that neck was all it took to turn all our tickets into trash, 'cos three Aces all by themselves isn't a good enough hand; you have to connect four in order to collect.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1,808.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/29/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Thanksgiving weekend continues; and just as there's been an over-abundance of good food, good bargains, and good football these past couple of days, there has also been plenty of good racing going on, with hopefully more still to come. So with that, we turn our attention to Saturday's Pick Four at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - (F) The Jimmy Durante (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Rainha Da Bateria (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Belle Et Bete (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Rainha Da Bateria looks to be a clear standout in this event. She's the only runner in this field with a Graded Stakes victory, and one of just three with multiple lifetime Wins. Belle Et Bete (Ire) is the wildcard here, as she makes her North American debut. Belle Et Bete was heavily backed in her last two starts, and proved herself to be much the best in both of those events. Today we'll see if those results were due to her talents, or due to the lack of quality opposition in those two fields.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Spring Moon (ML 3-1)
# 5 Magic Lily (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shakeitupbetty (ML 20-1)
B's
# 8 Oscillator (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Only Josie Knows (ML 5-1)
# 4 Mum's Truckee (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sergeant O'Rourke (ML 12-1)
Spring Moon returns from a thirteen month vacation; Trainer Bob Baffert wins with approximately 30% of such. Magic Lily invades from the East after a layover in Arizona where she took the Show in a listed stakes. Note that Magic Lily won at this class level back in April.
Shakeitupbetty has finished in the Trifecta five of the six times that she's competed at today's distance. The last time Shakeitupbetty competed on the Del Mar main track she took the Show at this class level, earning a Beyer's Speed Figure that fits in well with the best that this field has to offer.
Oscillator enters this event with a two race winning streak; and while those victories have come against lesser competition, the Beyers that Oscillator earned in those contests fit at this class level.
Only Josie Knows has been in the Exacta in five of her seven lifetime races on this main track. Mum's Truckee has the talent to win at this class level, but her failure to do so in over half a dozen attempts suggests that she simply prefers not crossing the wire first; perhaps the addition of blinkers will change her attitude today.
Sergeant O'Rourke makes her first start since January; Trainer Peter Miller wins with approximately 19% of those coming back from an extended layoff. Sergeant O'Rourke has been working well for this contest; but her form suggests that she needs the lead to win, and it questionable as to whether or not she can get that early lead in this field.
RACE 8 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Lexie Lou (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 4-5)
B's
# 1 Talco (Fr) (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
There's not much to analyze here; if California Chrome takes to the turf, he wins. California Chrome is by far the class of this field, with lifetime earnings greater than the rest of the field combined. If California Chrome doesn't take to the turf, then this is a pretty wide open affair. So will California Chrome take to the turf today? Your guess is at least as good as mine.
Lexie Lou defeated the boys earlier this year in the Queens Plate on the plastic up in Toronto, and she was a pretty convincing winner last time out in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss. Sawyer's Hill could be long gone before the others even get started if California Chrome isn't able to keep him from getting loose on the lead. On the other hand, if things get overheated on the front end, Talco (Fr), who was running late in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last time out, could be the one swooping in right at the wire to get win today.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Longstocking (ML 9-2)
# 4 Dad's Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rattataptap (ML 6-1)
B's
# 11 Popover (ML 7-2)
# 12 Ascent (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 1 Dea (ML 20-1)
# 8 Redheads Rule (ML 6-1)
# 13 Sweet Silver (ML 12-1)
# 9 Erte (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Dad's Princess finished fourth in the Del Mar Debutante back in August over this main track. If Dad's Princess repeats that effort today, she should win easily. Otherwise, this is anybody's race.
Longstocking and Rattataptap are a pair of first time starters who have been working well entering this contest and are by sires (Into Mischief and Tapit, respectively) whose progeny tend to do well in their debuts.
Popover is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and sired by Lookin at Lucky. Those two traits would normally make a horse like Popover an automatic "A" Selction; but I didn't like the gap in the workouts between October 25 and November 5. I also didn't like that she needed to drill again from the gate back on the 13th.
Ascent is making her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with over 20% of such. Dea, Redheads Rule, and Sweet Silver are all first time starters whose bloodlines suggest that they should be ready to go at first asking.
OK, that's the analysis. We're spending more than I prefer on this play, which is primarily due to the uncertainty of how California Chrome will handle the turf in the Hollywood Derby. If I was confident that Ca. Chrome's form would transfer well from dirt to turf, I could make this play much less expensive by turning him into a single "A" in that event; but I can't do that in good conscious. So going with what we've got, and playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $27.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $9.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 1 with 2,4,10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 11,12 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 1,8,13 $13.50
Total: $93.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) The Jimmy Durante (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Rainha Da Bateria (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Belle Et Bete (Ire) (ML 6-1)
Rainha Da Bateria looks to be a clear standout in this event. She's the only runner in this field with a Graded Stakes victory, and one of just three with multiple lifetime Wins. Belle Et Bete (Ire) is the wildcard here, as she makes her North American debut. Belle Et Bete was heavily backed in her last two starts, and proved herself to be much the best in both of those events. Today we'll see if those results were due to her talents, or due to the lack of quality opposition in those two fields.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Spring Moon (ML 3-1)
# 5 Magic Lily (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shakeitupbetty (ML 20-1)
B's
# 8 Oscillator (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Only Josie Knows (ML 5-1)
# 4 Mum's Truckee (ML 7-2)
# 7 Sergeant O'Rourke (ML 12-1)
Spring Moon returns from a thirteen month vacation; Trainer Bob Baffert wins with approximately 30% of such. Magic Lily invades from the East after a layover in Arizona where she took the Show in a listed stakes. Note that Magic Lily won at this class level back in April.
Shakeitupbetty has finished in the Trifecta five of the six times that she's competed at today's distance. The last time Shakeitupbetty competed on the Del Mar main track she took the Show at this class level, earning a Beyer's Speed Figure that fits in well with the best that this field has to offer.
Oscillator enters this event with a two race winning streak; and while those victories have come against lesser competition, the Beyers that Oscillator earned in those contests fit at this class level.
Only Josie Knows has been in the Exacta in five of her seven lifetime races on this main track. Mum's Truckee has the talent to win at this class level, but her failure to do so in over half a dozen attempts suggests that she simply prefers not crossing the wire first; perhaps the addition of blinkers will change her attitude today.
Sergeant O'Rourke makes her first start since January; Trainer Peter Miller wins with approximately 19% of those coming back from an extended layoff. Sergeant O'Rourke has been working well for this contest; but her form suggests that she needs the lead to win, and it questionable as to whether or not she can get that early lead in this field.
RACE 8 - The Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Lexie Lou (ML 3-1)
# 4 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-1)
# 5 California Chrome (ML 4-5)
B's
# 1 Talco (Fr) (ML 10-1)
C’s
None
There's not much to analyze here; if California Chrome takes to the turf, he wins. California Chrome is by far the class of this field, with lifetime earnings greater than the rest of the field combined. If California Chrome doesn't take to the turf, then this is a pretty wide open affair. So will California Chrome take to the turf today? Your guess is at least as good as mine.
Lexie Lou defeated the boys earlier this year in the Queens Plate on the plastic up in Toronto, and she was a pretty convincing winner last time out in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss. Sawyer's Hill could be long gone before the others even get started if California Chrome isn't able to keep him from getting loose on the lead. On the other hand, if things get overheated on the front end, Talco (Fr), who was running late in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby last time out, could be the one swooping in right at the wire to get win today.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Longstocking (ML 9-2)
# 4 Dad's Princess (ML 6-1)
# 10 Rattataptap (ML 6-1)
B's
# 11 Popover (ML 7-2)
# 12 Ascent (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 1 Dea (ML 20-1)
# 8 Redheads Rule (ML 6-1)
# 13 Sweet Silver (ML 12-1)
# 9 Erte (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Dad's Princess finished fourth in the Del Mar Debutante back in August over this main track. If Dad's Princess repeats that effort today, she should win easily. Otherwise, this is anybody's race.
Longstocking and Rattataptap are a pair of first time starters who have been working well entering this contest and are by sires (Into Mischief and Tapit, respectively) whose progeny tend to do well in their debuts.
Popover is a first time starter trained by Bob Baffert and sired by Lookin at Lucky. Those two traits would normally make a horse like Popover an automatic "A" Selction; but I didn't like the gap in the workouts between October 25 and November 5. I also didn't like that she needed to drill again from the gate back on the 13th.
Ascent is making her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with over 20% of such. Dea, Redheads Rule, and Sweet Silver are all first time starters whose bloodlines suggest that they should be ready to go at first asking.
OK, that's the analysis. We're spending more than I prefer on this play, which is primarily due to the uncertainty of how California Chrome will handle the turf in the Hollywood Derby. If I was confident that Ca. Chrome's form would transfer well from dirt to turf, I could make this play much less expensive by turning him into a single "A" in that event; but I can't do that in good conscious. So going with what we've got, and playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $27.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 2,4,10 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $9.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 1 with 2,4,10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 2,4,5 with 11,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 1 with 11,12 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,10 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,5,11 with 2,4,5 with 1,8,13 $13.50
Total: $93.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Thursday, November 27, 2014
11/27/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 5 - # 2 Blingismything (Final Odds 4.70) - "C" Selection
Race 6 - # 3 Alfa Bird (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup - # 3 Finnegans Wake (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Jazzy Josh (9.10) - "C" Selection
We had 'em all; but we didn't have 'em all together. We were right to discount the chances of the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite in the opener, # 5 Royal Temptress (Ire) (2.70*), and we were correct in our belief that Finnegans Wake would respond well to having Jockey Victor Espinoza on his back again. But we didn't think enough of Blingismything to make her an "A" Selection; and likewise we chose in the finale to prefer the experienced runners over the first time starter. One of those two mistakes could have been overcome; but the two mistakes together proved fatal, and caused all our tickets to turn into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $319.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 6 - # 3 Alfa Bird (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup - # 3 Finnegans Wake (3.90) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Jazzy Josh (9.10) - "C" Selection
We had 'em all; but we didn't have 'em all together. We were right to discount the chances of the Morning Line and Post Time Favorite in the opener, # 5 Royal Temptress (Ire) (2.70*), and we were correct in our belief that Finnegans Wake would respond well to having Jockey Victor Espinoza on his back again. But we didn't think enough of Blingismything to make her an "A" Selection; and likewise we chose in the finale to prefer the experienced runners over the first time starter. One of those two mistakes could have been overcome; but the two mistakes together proved fatal, and caused all our tickets to turn into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 3 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $319.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/27/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
A Happy Thanksgiving once again to one and all. Taking advantage of the holiday card at Del Mar; Good Lord willing, when all is said and done, we'll all have one more thing that we can be thankful for.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Aguafria (Morning Line 8-1)
# 13 Go West Marie (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Blingismything (ML 9-2)
# 5 Royal Temptress (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Colonel Joan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Burning Arch (ML 10-1)
Aguafria has finished within two lengths of the winner in each of her two North American turf races, both at this class level.
Go West Marie took the Show at this class level last time out, as well as five starts back. Sandwiched between those three races were three starts in state bred stakes, of which Go West Marie won one and finished third twice.
Blingismything won off the bench charging down the hill at Santa Anita last time out. Blingismything has finished in the money in all four of her career turf races.
Royal Temptress (Ire) moves up the class ladder after winning an OC N1X by a nose last time out at Santa Anita. The close margin of victory suggests that she may need a race or two at this level before moving on up; but as a lightly raced three year old, there is certainly strong upside potential.
Colonel Joan was well clear in her win last time out over this turf course against OC N1X company. Colonel Joan has also hit the board against stakes competition, so she should fit in well at this class level. Burning Arch is two for three lifetime over this turf course.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Alfa Bird (ML 9-5)
# 6 Nowalking (ML 3-1)
# 7 Raider Power (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 5 Arlington House (ML 8-1)
Alfa Bird has taken the Place in all three of his prior career starts at this class level, including his one prior career try on synthetics. Nowalking took the Show at this distance over this main track at this class level back in August. Raider Power's workouts and results seem to indicate that he much prefers synthetics to real dirt.
Arlington House makes his second career start for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Arlington House also had a fine work over this main track back on the 19th.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Holiday Star (ML 7-2)
# 3 Finnegans Wake (ML 9-2)
# 11 The Pizza Man (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Holiday Star, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore last time out, misses by just a couple of head bobs of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Holiday Star is also one of just two horses in this field with a Win at today's distance.
Finnegans Wake, who looked out classed against Grade 1 company, won the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap back in July, and missed by less than a length of taking the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup two starts back. Note that the jockey in the Arlington Handicap victory was Victor Espinoza, who today will be riding Finnegans Wake for the first since that Win.
The Pizza Man had a five race winning streak going for himself before traveling north of the border, where he failed to hit the board in two Grade 1 attempts at Woodbine. The Pizza Man is the only runner in this field besides Holiday Star with a Win at today's distance.
RACE 8 - Md $62.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunbeamsfromheaven (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dream Police (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rodeado (ML 20-1)
# 2 Pat the Bear (ML 8-1)
# 9 Jazzy Josh (ML 8-1)
Sunbeamsfromheaven drops down from Maiden Special Weights into Maiden Claimers; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately 27% of such.
Dream Police has earned speed figures (Beyer and Brisnet) in each of his last two races against non-claiming maidens that would definitely get the job done today. The problem is that both those races were on the grass; so it's unclear if Dream Police will do as well on the switch to the plastic.
Rodeado, Pat the Bear, and Jazzy Josh are all first time starters by sires whose progeny do reasonably well in their debuts, and all three have been working well. As there's no guarantee that Dream Police's turf form will hold on the synthetic, they all merit consideration.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing our tickets as usual via the Crist method, but without doubling our wager on the "All A Entries" Ticket. This will allow us to use more runners without going over budget, and I don't think they'll be so many short priced winners that the payout will be less than our investment should we get four Aces. So with that, we get:
RACE 5 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Aguafria (Morning Line 8-1)
# 13 Go West Marie (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Blingismything (ML 9-2)
# 5 Royal Temptress (Ire) (ML 7-2)
# 7 Colonel Joan (ML 6-1)
# 10 Burning Arch (ML 10-1)
Aguafria has finished within two lengths of the winner in each of her two North American turf races, both at this class level.
Go West Marie took the Show at this class level last time out, as well as five starts back. Sandwiched between those three races were three starts in state bred stakes, of which Go West Marie won one and finished third twice.
Blingismything won off the bench charging down the hill at Santa Anita last time out. Blingismything has finished in the money in all four of her career turf races.
Royal Temptress (Ire) moves up the class ladder after winning an OC N1X by a nose last time out at Santa Anita. The close margin of victory suggests that she may need a race or two at this level before moving on up; but as a lightly raced three year old, there is certainly strong upside potential.
Colonel Joan was well clear in her win last time out over this turf course against OC N1X company. Colonel Joan has also hit the board against stakes competition, so she should fit in well at this class level. Burning Arch is two for three lifetime over this turf course.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Alfa Bird (ML 9-5)
# 6 Nowalking (ML 3-1)
# 7 Raider Power (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 5 Arlington House (ML 8-1)
Alfa Bird has taken the Place in all three of his prior career starts at this class level, including his one prior career try on synthetics. Nowalking took the Show at this distance over this main track at this class level back in August. Raider Power's workouts and results seem to indicate that he much prefers synthetics to real dirt.
Arlington House makes his second career start for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Arlington House also had a fine work over this main track back on the 19th.
RACE 7 - The Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 2) - Twelve Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Holiday Star (ML 7-2)
# 3 Finnegans Wake (ML 9-2)
# 11 The Pizza Man (ML 5-1)
C’s
None
Holiday Star, winner of the Grade 3 Sycamore last time out, misses by just a couple of head bobs of entering this contest with a three race winning streak. Holiday Star is also one of just two horses in this field with a Win at today's distance.
Finnegans Wake, who looked out classed against Grade 1 company, won the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap back in July, and missed by less than a length of taking the Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup two starts back. Note that the jockey in the Arlington Handicap victory was Victor Espinoza, who today will be riding Finnegans Wake for the first since that Win.
The Pizza Man had a five race winning streak going for himself before traveling north of the border, where he failed to hit the board in two Grade 1 attempts at Woodbine. The Pizza Man is the only runner in this field besides Holiday Star with a Win at today's distance.
RACE 8 - Md $62.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Sunbeamsfromheaven (ML 8-1)
# 10 Dream Police (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rodeado (ML 20-1)
# 2 Pat the Bear (ML 8-1)
# 9 Jazzy Josh (ML 8-1)
Sunbeamsfromheaven drops down from Maiden Special Weights into Maiden Claimers; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately 27% of such.
Dream Police has earned speed figures (Beyer and Brisnet) in each of his last two races against non-claiming maidens that would definitely get the job done today. The problem is that both those races were on the grass; so it's unclear if Dream Police will do as well on the switch to the plastic.
Rodeado, Pat the Bear, and Jazzy Josh are all first time starters by sires whose progeny do reasonably well in their debuts, and all three have been working well. As there's no guarantee that Dream Police's turf form will hold on the synthetic, they all merit consideration.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing our tickets as usual via the Crist method, but without doubling our wager on the "All A Entries" Ticket. This will allow us to use more runners without going over budget, and I don't think they'll be so many short priced winners that the payout will be less than our investment should we get four Aces. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,7,10 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $36.00
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 5 with 2,3,11 with 5,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 11,13 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,11 with 1,2,9 $27.00
Total: $87.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 4:00 EST / 1:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Happy Thanksgiving
"Gratitude unlocks the fullness of life. It turns what we have into enough, and more. It turns denial into acceptance, chaos to order, confusion to clarity. It can turn a meal into a feast, a house into a home, a stranger into a friend. Gratitude makes sense of our past, brings peace for today and creates a vision for tomorrow."
- Melody Beattie
“The thankful receiver bears a plentiful harvest.”
- William Blake
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
- Melody Beattie
“The thankful receiver bears a plentiful harvest.”
- William Blake
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 23, 2014
11/23/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 El Nino Terrible (Final Odds 2.30*) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 4 Dancinthenightaway (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 6 Big Macher (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Jomelo (1.60*) - "A" Selection
# 7 El Nino Terrible battled for the lead right out of the gate in Race 6, had it by first call, and then never let it go, holding off our late charging "C" Selection, # 3 Kristo (4.30), to win by half a length. And that half length was our margin of defeat today, as Jockey Rafael Bejarano turned a natural hat trick, bringing home one of our "A" Selections in each of the final three races. So we end the day holding several tickets with three winners; but three out of four doesn't get paid in this game.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct all chalk Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $47.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 4 Dancinthenightaway (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Cary Grant - # 6 Big Macher (1.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 5 Jomelo (1.60*) - "A" Selection
# 7 El Nino Terrible battled for the lead right out of the gate in Race 6, had it by first call, and then never let it go, holding off our late charging "C" Selection, # 3 Kristo (4.30), to win by half a length. And that half length was our margin of defeat today, as Jockey Rafael Bejarano turned a natural hat trick, bringing home one of our "A" Selections in each of the final three races. So we end the day holding several tickets with three winners; but three out of four doesn't get paid in this game.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct all chalk Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 6 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $47.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/23/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
"Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly." - John F. Kennedy
Having failed in our foray into the Pick Five Saturday, we now return to the Pick Four for Sunday's card at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 My Samurai Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Whine for Wine (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Derringer (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 3 Kristo (ML 5-1)
My Samurai Warrior wired $50k open claimers last time out on the Santa Anita dirt. If he can carry that form onto the polytrack today, the early quickness should overcome the rise in class.
Whine for Wine missed by less than a length last time out at this class level, albeit on the Santa Anita dirt. This will be Whine for Wine's second start off an approximate three month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with a little over twenty percent of such.
Derringer took the Place last time out at this class level; yes, on the Santa Anita dirt (oh how happy I'll be when all the SoCal main tracks are dirt). Derringer and Kristo are the only two horses in this field to have hit the board more than once when competing on the Del Mar main track.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Dancinthenightaway (ML 2-1)
# 8 Backwoods Belle (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Hanserella (ML 10-1)
# 2 Vegas Rules (ML 12-1)
# 3 Moving Desert (ML 4-1)
# 5 Cal Gal (ML 10-1)
Dancinthenightaway is making her turf debut, as well as facing winners for the first time; not the qualities that you look for in a short priced entrant. However, she was well clear in her debut win on the dirt, and four of her opponents here are also winless on the grass; so she definitely warrants respect here.
Backwoods Belle won an OC N1X at today's distance against open company upstate the last time that she was on the grass. Backwoods Belle certainly has the speed to lead this pack around the track.
Hansarella is the only runner in this field to have finished in the money on this turf course. Vegas Rules and Cal Gal should both improve with the turn back in distance. Moving Desert is multiple state bred stakes placed on dirt and synthetics; it's possible she may show some class on the grass today.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Red Outlaw (ML 2-1)
# 6 Big Macher (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Patriots Rule (ML 12-1)
Red Outlaw is undefeated in six lifetime starts, including two stakes wins over this main track. Big Macher is a Graded Stakes winner over this main track. Patriots Rule is on the ticket just in case Red Outlaw and Big Macher kill each other before the wire.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
Having failed in our foray into the Pick Five Saturday, we now return to the Pick Four for Sunday's card at Del Mar.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 My Samurai Warrior (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Whine for Wine (ML 5-2)
B's
# 4 Derringer (ML 12-1)
C’s
# 3 Kristo (ML 5-1)
My Samurai Warrior wired $50k open claimers last time out on the Santa Anita dirt. If he can carry that form onto the polytrack today, the early quickness should overcome the rise in class.
Whine for Wine missed by less than a length last time out at this class level, albeit on the Santa Anita dirt. This will be Whine for Wine's second start off an approximate three month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with a little over twenty percent of such.
Derringer took the Place last time out at this class level; yes, on the Santa Anita dirt (oh how happy I'll be when all the SoCal main tracks are dirt). Derringer and Kristo are the only two horses in this field to have hit the board more than once when competing on the Del Mar main track.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Dancinthenightaway (ML 2-1)
# 8 Backwoods Belle (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Hanserella (ML 10-1)
# 2 Vegas Rules (ML 12-1)
# 3 Moving Desert (ML 4-1)
# 5 Cal Gal (ML 10-1)
Dancinthenightaway is making her turf debut, as well as facing winners for the first time; not the qualities that you look for in a short priced entrant. However, she was well clear in her debut win on the dirt, and four of her opponents here are also winless on the grass; so she definitely warrants respect here.
Backwoods Belle won an OC N1X at today's distance against open company upstate the last time that she was on the grass. Backwoods Belle certainly has the speed to lead this pack around the track.
Hansarella is the only runner in this field to have finished in the money on this turf course. Vegas Rules and Cal Gal should both improve with the turn back in distance. Moving Desert is multiple state bred stakes placed on dirt and synthetics; it's possible she may show some class on the grass today.
RACE 8 - [S] The Cary Grant $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Red Outlaw (ML 2-1)
# 6 Big Macher (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
# 3 Patriots Rule (ML 12-1)
Red Outlaw is undefeated in six lifetime starts, including two stakes wins over this main track. Big Macher is a Graded Stakes winner over this main track. Patriots Rule is on the ticket just in case Red Outlaw and Big Macher kill each other before the wire.
RACE 9 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Jomelo (ML 5-2)
# 6 Ezio (ML 5-1)
B's
# 4 Waitwaitdonttellme (ML 30-1)
# 7 Craving Carats (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Miceli (ML 6-1)
# 3 Mambo Man (ML 12-1)
# 9 Sizzlin' Joe (ML 6-1)
Jomelo misses by just half a length of entering this contest with two consecutive Wins at this class level at today's distance on the turf. Ezio took the Show against more expensive last time out.
Waitwaitdonttellme took the Show against ALW N1X company the last time she routed on the grass. Craving Carats took the Place at this class level at today's distance two starts back.
Miceli has quick early foot and should appreciate the class relief. Mambo Man, a two-time stakes winner at Turf Paradise earlier this year, should also appreciate taking a step down on the class ladder. Sizzlin' Joe took the Show at this class level two starts back.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 pick P4: 5,6 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 5,6 $24.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 4,7 $8.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 4,7 $4.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,3,5 with 4,6 with 5,6 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 4,8 with 3 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 4,8 with 4,6 with 2,3,9 $12.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 22, 2014
11/22/14 GG R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
City Chapel, the longshot claim that we've been following, took another step up the class ladder Saturday, moving into the non-claiming Allowance ranks in Race 7 at Golden Gate Fields.
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.40) was up closer to the pace than usual Saturday, racing third through the back stretch, just outside the early leaders. City Chapel came three wide out of the turn into the home stretch, and was able to hold the Show, but did not have enough to catch the gate to wire winner, # 8 Grazen's Hope (1.40*). The third place finish was worth $3,600 in purse money; thus bringing City Chapel's total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Owner/Trainer Victory Trujillo to $113,805.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
City Chapel (Final Odds 8.40) was up closer to the pace than usual Saturday, racing third through the back stretch, just outside the early leaders. City Chapel came three wide out of the turn into the home stretch, and was able to hold the Show, but did not have enough to catch the gate to wire winner, # 8 Grazen's Hope (1.40*). The third place finish was worth $3,600 in purse money; thus bringing City Chapel's total earnings since being claimed for $4,000 by Owner/Trainer Victory Trujillo to $113,805.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/22/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 5 Grand Yodeler (Final Odds 1.60) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 4 Shysheisnot (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 5 Broadway Nika (5.00) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Blake's Magic (3.90) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Tiz Futurity (8.40) - No Selection
Not exactly a banner day for us. Gary Stevens showed that he is indeed healthy enough to find the Winner's Circle; so even in a leg where we got an "A" Selection home we were actually wrong, because we spread needlessly. We had four of the six runners in Race 3 covered, and yet still managed to miss the winner, and a very logical contender at that. We also whiffed on the winner in Race 4, another very logical contender.
Oh well; onto the next race.
And yet, despite the rather poor showing, I can't be too hard on myself here; because even if I had played the first four legs of this sequence correctly, the only way I would have covered Tiz Futurity in Race 5 is if I hit the "ALL" button. Tiz Futurity going into today's contest was a lifetime one-for-thirty-four. Tiz Futurity had lost all ten of his previous tries on a synthetic surface; including four tries on the Del Mar main track. Tiz Futurity's last eleven races has been at either this class level or cheaper, and he had lost them all. Tiz Futurity had gone off as the Post Time Favorite three starts back against $8k N2X company, and had managed to lose by eleven lengths. So there was virtually no way I was hitting today's Pick Five; not with Tiz Futurity capturing one of the five legs.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 5 / 4 / 5 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,844.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 4 Shysheisnot (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 5 Broadway Nika (5.00) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 2 Blake's Magic (3.90) - No Selection
Race 5 - # 3 Tiz Futurity (8.40) - No Selection
Not exactly a banner day for us. Gary Stevens showed that he is indeed healthy enough to find the Winner's Circle; so even in a leg where we got an "A" Selection home we were actually wrong, because we spread needlessly. We had four of the six runners in Race 3 covered, and yet still managed to miss the winner, and a very logical contender at that. We also whiffed on the winner in Race 4, another very logical contender.
Oh well; onto the next race.
And yet, despite the rather poor showing, I can't be too hard on myself here; because even if I had played the first four legs of this sequence correctly, the only way I would have covered Tiz Futurity in Race 5 is if I hit the "ALL" button. Tiz Futurity going into today's contest was a lifetime one-for-thirty-four. Tiz Futurity had lost all ten of his previous tries on a synthetic surface; including four tries on the Del Mar main track. Tiz Futurity's last eleven races has been at either this class level or cheaper, and he had lost them all. Tiz Futurity had gone off as the Post Time Favorite three starts back against $8k N2X company, and had managed to lose by eleven lengths. So there was virtually no way I was hitting today's Pick Five; not with Tiz Futurity capturing one of the five legs.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Five sequence of 5 / 4 / 5 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,844.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/22/14 Del Mar Pick Five - Preview
Changing it up a bit this Saturday by focusing on the early races rather than the later events. I saw a couple of Morning Line Favorites that I feel comfortable playing against in the early portion of the card, and therefore thought it best to focus my energies there. So with that, here's a look at today's Pick Five at Del Mar.
RACE 1 - [S] (F) OC 80k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Easter Fever (Morning Line 5-1)
# 5 Grand Yodeler (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Princess Bertrando (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 4 Desert Thief (ML 8-1)
RACE 1 - [S] (F) OC 80k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Easter Fever (Morning Line 5-1)
# 5 Grand Yodeler (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Princess Bertrando (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 4 Desert Thief (ML 8-1)
Grand Yodeler is the type of horse I would normally single in a race like this. Grand Yodeler has had three career races, all on this main track, and she's won two of them. Last time out Grand Yodeler defeated open company $50k claimers; so the move to today's contest is certainly no worse than a sideways move on the class ladder. The only bad race Grand Yodeler has run in her career was in the Generous Portion Stakes; but even in that event she finished ahead of a few who are running against her again today, including the Morning Line Favorite in this race, Princess Bertrando.
So why then isn't Grand Yodeler a single "A" Selection above? Because of the jockey scheduled to ride her today. And I never thought I would say that about Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens; but the fact is that he has yet to win since rushing back from knee surgery to compete in The Breeders' Cup earlier this month. Indeed, Stevens has finished in the Trifecta just once during this current Del Mar meet.
Now, I'm not saying that Stevens is done; nor am I tossing a well meant horse just because Stevens is on her. What I am saying is that caution is called for, at least until Stevens shows that he is indeed fully recovered, and gets his picture taken on horseback after a couple of races. So being cautious, we're spreading out in this one.
Easter Fever is one-for-two in her career over this main track, and took the Place at this class level two starts back at Santa Anita.
Princess Bertrando took a big step forward last time out in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Santa Anita. But will that form carry over in her return to the plastic? Princess Bertrando broke her maiden on the Del Mar main track, but that's been her only Win so far in four tries on the fake stuff. Your guess is at least as good as mine as to how Princess Bertrando will do today on the polytrack; all I know is that my life is going to be much, much easier once all the SoCal tracks are using real dirt.
Quite frankly, Desert Thief is on this ticket only because I didn't want to leave just one horse in the field uncovered. Still, Desert Thief is not without attributes, as she does possess legitimate early speed (it was she who lead the pack for the first half in the Generous Portion Stakes) and she has defeated open (non-state restricted) company. So while she's on this ticket primarily by default, it would not be a total shocker were Desert Thief to cross the wire first in this contest.
RACE 2 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eleven Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Shysheisnot (ML 3-1)
# 6 Kadesha (Fr) (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Perfecta (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 5 Luvly Rita (ML 4-1)
Shysheisnot stretches out past a mile for the first time; in addition, this is her first try against open (non-state restricted) company. Still, she was solid in winning last time out, and the breeding is there, with Tribal Rule as her sire and Dynaformer as her dam sire.
Kadesha (Fr) took the Place at this class level over this turf course last time. Also factor in her connections; the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Kent Desormeaux and Bob Hess Jr has been winning more than a fourth of their contests over the past two years at Del Mar.
Perfecta is two-for-twenty lifetime; not exactly a glowing resume, until one sees that both of those career wins came over this turf course, in just six tries.
Luvly Rita is still a maiden, so she's racing above her conditions here. But she also ran above her conditions last time out on the Santa Anita grass, and managed to take the Place. Besides, how many eleven furlong turf races can there possible be for maidens? So since her connections want her to go long, just about the only way for Luvly Rita to do that is to compete against winners.
RACE 3 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Cloud Hopper (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Cardio Royale (ML 5-1)
# 3 Usbek Thunder (Brz) (ML 2-1)
# 4 Deep Play (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Cloud Hopper is back in the barn of Trainer Art Sherman, for whom he did his best running, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure over this main track at today's distance at today's class level. A repeat of that performance would make Cloud Hopper an easy winner today.
Cardio Royale, one-for-five in his career on this main track, flashed some early speed last time out; a bit of a change of pace for a runner whose last Win came from well off the pace. Factor in the class drop, and Cardio Royale may be sitting on a big one.
Deep Play gets some much needed class relief, as his connections look to cut their losses after scooping Deep Play up for $20k two starts back. Usbek Thunder (Brz) has been competitive at this class level, and has the aforementioned Desormeaux / Hess, Jr Jockey / Trainer combo going for him.
RACE 4 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Mahalo Princess (ML 4-1)
B's
# 7 Harlington's Rose (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 3 Lucky S. J. (ML 5-1)
# 4 Air of Royalty (ML 3-1)
Mahalo Princess won in her only prior start of this turf course, which was also at today's distance and at this class level. Harlington's Rose acquitted herself well in her only prior career start on the grass, a route against state-bred stakes company where she battled on the front end and was able to grab the lead in the stretch, but could not hold on 'til the wire.
Lucky S. J. already has a win on dirt and a win on synthetics in her brief three race career; this will be her first try on the grass. Lucky S. J. has the breeding for the turf (as expressed by her Tomlinson Turf Rating, which is the best in this field) and since she won her career debut she should be okay to go off the bench.
Air of Royalty is also making her turf debut today; no doubt because she's done so poorly in her two starts on the polytrack, relative to her other two career outings. Still, Air of Royalty must be respected here due to her speed, and the addition of Rafael Bejarano as her rider should be viewed as a positive.
RACE 5 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 5 Intaxication (ML 3-1)
# 8 Secret Command (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Raise the Hoof (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 7 Mahalo Arturo (ML 7-2)
Intaxication goes against winners for the first time after graduating for $18k earlier this month on this main track. Secret Command just misses by half a length of being a perfect two-for-two in his career with Kent Desormeaux on his back; and, yes, she's trained by Bob Hess Jr.
Raise the Hoof took the Show at this class level over this main track last time out. Mahalo Arturo, drawing inside of Secret Command, could get a nice setup sitting right behind and to the outsdie of a dueling Intaxication and Raise the Hoof.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $8.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P5: 3 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 1,3,4 with 8 with 5,8 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 7 with 5,8 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 1 $2.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P5: 3 with 3 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 3 with 4,6 with 1,3,4 with 8 with 5,8 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 3 with 4,6 with 6 with 7 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 3 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 3 with 1,3,4 with 8 with 5,8 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 7 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 3 with 6 with 8 with 1 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 1,3,4 with 7 with 5,8 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 1,3,4 with 8 with 1 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 7 with 1 $2.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 4 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 5 with 6 with 8 with 5,8 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 3,4 with 5,8 $8.00
$0.50 P5: 1,5 with 4,6 with 6 with 8 with 7 $2.00
Total: $83.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 16, 2014
11/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Echo Zulu (Final Odds 4.10) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Fast Magoo (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Eddie's First (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Neveradoubt (5.20) - "B" Selection
Needless to say, the card was much, much more formful today at Del Mar than it was yesterday. Each of the two races prior to the start of the Pick Four sequence was won by the Post Time Favorite, making for a lot of winning Pick Six tickets today. Over two and a half million dollars of new money was wagered on the Pick Six today, creating a pool of over $3.1 million. When all was said and done, that two dollar wager paid out $3,051.40 for all those who correctly picked all six winners.
As for the pool we were swimming in, over $680k was wagered on today's Pick Four. For posterity's sake, here are the $0.50 Will Pays to the two other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Lovely Summer (5.10) - $230.25
# 8 Dr. Suer (1.40*) - $78.70
But that's what might have been. The actual Pick Four sequence of 3 / 9 / 6 / 3 paid $131.15 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 9 Fast Magoo (1.90*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - # 6 Eddie's First (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Neveradoubt (5.20) - "B" Selection
Needless to say, the card was much, much more formful today at Del Mar than it was yesterday. Each of the two races prior to the start of the Pick Four sequence was won by the Post Time Favorite, making for a lot of winning Pick Six tickets today. Over two and a half million dollars of new money was wagered on the Pick Six today, creating a pool of over $3.1 million. When all was said and done, that two dollar wager paid out $3,051.40 for all those who correctly picked all six winners.
As for the pool we were swimming in, over $680k was wagered on today's Pick Four. For posterity's sake, here are the $0.50 Will Pays to the two other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Lovely Summer (5.10) - $230.25
# 8 Dr. Suer (1.40*) - $78.70
But that's what might have been. The actual Pick Four sequence of 3 / 9 / 6 / 3 paid $131.15 for a fifty cent wager.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/16/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
As mentioned in the previous post, there's a triple carryover in Sunday's Pick Six at Del Mar; so just re-apply all the reasons I gave yesterday why a big carryover in the Pick Six is good for those of us swimming in the Pick Four pool, and increase them exponentially.
RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Dynamo Dixie (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Zulu (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sir Barclay (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Rosie's Hurricane (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mosso (ML 6-1)
# 8 W. Giles (ML 12-1)
Dynamo Dixie took the Place at this level last time out. Dynamo Dixie is four-for-seven lifetime on the plastic at Golden Gate Fields; perhaps that form will hold up down state.
Echo Zulu has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career tries on synthetic. Sir Barclay took the Show against more expensive two starts back, albeit on real dirt.
Rosie's Hurricane has finished in the Exacta in all six of his career starts, all at Les Bois Park. Perhaps it's overly optimistic to expect that form to mean anything in Southern California; but this will be Rosie's Hurricane's first start for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, and runners tend to do very well when competing for the first time under his tutelage.
Mosso has just one career win, so he could be competing against some N2L foes rather than trying open company here. Perhaps his placement in this race is sign of confidence from his connections; after all, Mosso did take the Show against more expensive last time out, and he did break his maiden on this main track.
W. Giles in one-for-two lifetime over this main track. W. Giles looks like he's going to need the early lead to win. Odds are he won't get that early lead; but if he does, they're going to have a tough time trying to run him down in the stretch.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Wild At Best (ML 7-2)
# 4 Flyin for a Livin (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fast Magoo (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
None
Wild At Best comes off the bench after a nine month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately one fourth of such. Flyin for a Livin took the Show at this level two starts back. Fast Magoo has earned speed figures in the past that are good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Smart Journey (ML 7-2)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 3-1)
# 8 Lindante (ML 5-1)
B's
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Law Dog (ML 4-1)
# 3 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1)
Smart Journey was within two lengths of the winner charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out, his first try against winners. Smart Journey will have the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano today; it was Bejarano who was on his back the only prior time that Smart Journey got his picture taken after a race.
Eddie's First just missed by a nose of taking The E.B. Johnston Stakes on the dirt a couple of months back. Expect Eddie's First to be among those fighting for the early lead.
Lindante tries winners for the first time here, though he did break his maiden last time out against open, rather than state restricted, company. Lindante has shown the ability to rate, a trait that should prove quite useful in this field filled with a lot of early speed.
Johns Journey is another, like Lindante, that has the ability to come from just off the pace; so while Johns Journey's turf form is lacking, his ability to rate may put him in the Winner's Circle today.
Law Dog is the only runner here with multiple turf wins. Conversely, Crimson Giant is winless in twenty-nine ties on the grass. So why is Crimson Giant on our tickets? Because there's a lot of early speed here, and if the pace should completely blow up, Crimson Giant is the one entrant in this field that can be counted on to still be running at the end.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Dr. Suer (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Lovely Summer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Neveradoubt (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 1,3 $3.00
RACE 6 - Clm $16k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 Dynamo Dixie (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 3 Echo Zulu (ML 5-1)
# 4 Sir Barclay (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Rosie's Hurricane (ML 12-1)
# 5 Mosso (ML 6-1)
# 8 W. Giles (ML 12-1)
Dynamo Dixie took the Place at this level last time out. Dynamo Dixie is four-for-seven lifetime on the plastic at Golden Gate Fields; perhaps that form will hold up down state.
Echo Zulu has finished in the Trifecta in all five of his career tries on synthetic. Sir Barclay took the Show against more expensive two starts back, albeit on real dirt.
Rosie's Hurricane has finished in the Exacta in all six of his career starts, all at Les Bois Park. Perhaps it's overly optimistic to expect that form to mean anything in Southern California; but this will be Rosie's Hurricane's first start for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, and runners tend to do very well when competing for the first time under his tutelage.
Mosso has just one career win, so he could be competing against some N2L foes rather than trying open company here. Perhaps his placement in this race is sign of confidence from his connections; after all, Mosso did take the Show against more expensive last time out, and he did break his maiden on this main track.
W. Giles in one-for-two lifetime over this main track. W. Giles looks like he's going to need the early lead to win. Odds are he won't get that early lead; but if he does, they're going to have a tough time trying to run him down in the stretch.
RACE 7 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Wild At Best (ML 7-2)
# 4 Flyin for a Livin (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fast Magoo (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C’s
None
Wild At Best comes off the bench after a nine month layoff; Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer wins with approximately one fourth of such. Flyin for a Livin took the Show at this level two starts back. Fast Magoo has earned speed figures in the past that are good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [S] ALW N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Smart Journey (ML 7-2)
# 6 Eddie's First (ML 3-1)
# 8 Lindante (ML 5-1)
B's
# 7 Johns Journey (ML 8-1)
C's
# 1 Law Dog (ML 4-1)
# 3 Crimson Giant (ML 20-1)
Smart Journey was within two lengths of the winner charging down the Santa Anita hill last time out, his first try against winners. Smart Journey will have the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano today; it was Bejarano who was on his back the only prior time that Smart Journey got his picture taken after a race.
Eddie's First just missed by a nose of taking The E.B. Johnston Stakes on the dirt a couple of months back. Expect Eddie's First to be among those fighting for the early lead.
Lindante tries winners for the first time here, though he did break his maiden last time out against open, rather than state restricted, company. Lindante has shown the ability to rate, a trait that should prove quite useful in this field filled with a lot of early speed.
Johns Journey is another, like Lindante, that has the ability to come from just off the pace; so while Johns Journey's turf form is lacking, his ability to rate may put him in the Winner's Circle today.
Law Dog is the only runner here with multiple turf wins. Conversely, Crimson Giant is winless in twenty-nine ties on the grass. So why is Crimson Giant on our tickets? Because there's a lot of early speed here, and if the pace should completely blow up, Crimson Giant is the one entrant in this field that can be counted on to still be running at the end.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Dr. Suer (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Lovely Summer (ML 5-1)
# 3 Neveradoubt (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Dr. Suer missed by just a head of graduating in his debut last time out, albeit against Maiden Claimers. Dr. Suer will be adding blinkers today; Trainer Phil D'Amato wins at a 40% clip when his runners don the hood for the first time. Also note that Dr. Suer will have the services of Jockey Mike Smith this go round.
Lovely Summer and Neveradoubt are a pair of first time starters whose respective sires and connections win rather frequently with debut runners. While I think Dr. Suer should be a solid favorite in this contest, I think the use of backups is warranted due to the gap between the Beyer Speed Figure earned by Dr. Suer in his debut and the Beyer Speed Figure typically required to win at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00
A's with One B
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $9.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,4 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 1,3 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 7 with 1,3 $3.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5,8 with 3,4,9 with 5,6,8 with 8 $13.50
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 1,3 with 8 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 7 with 3,4,9 with 1,3 with 8 $3.00
Total: $69.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, November 15, 2014
11/15/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 American Sun (Final Odds 9.60) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Play Hard to Get (11.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 8 No Problem (17.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Regally Soul (7.30) - "B" Selection
In the opening leg our single "A" Selection, # 4 Megyns Gold (2.40*) battled with American Sun for the lead into the stretch; but it was the Favorite that faded, while the long shot kept going on to victory, turning all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Indeed, Race 6 was a good microcosm of the afternoon as a whole, as not a single Post Time Favorite crossed the wire first in any leg of the Pick Four sequence; nor, for that matter, in any of the Pick Six events. So if misery loves company there sure was plenty to go around, as nobody picked six today. As a matter of fact, nobody picked five either, as consolation payouts in the amount of $1,114.20 were awarded to those who successfully picked four out of six.
As regards the pool in which we were swimming, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 11 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $7,900.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Play Hard to Get (11.30) - "B" Selection
Race 8 - The Bob Hope - # 8 No Problem (17.10) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 12 Regally Soul (7.30) - "B" Selection
In the opening leg our single "A" Selection, # 4 Megyns Gold (2.40*) battled with American Sun for the lead into the stretch; but it was the Favorite that faded, while the long shot kept going on to victory, turning all our tickets into trash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Indeed, Race 6 was a good microcosm of the afternoon as a whole, as not a single Post Time Favorite crossed the wire first in any leg of the Pick Four sequence; nor, for that matter, in any of the Pick Six events. So if misery loves company there sure was plenty to go around, as nobody picked six today. As a matter of fact, nobody picked five either, as consolation payouts in the amount of $1,114.20 were awarded to those who successfully picked four out of six.
As regards the pool in which we were swimming, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 11 / 8 / 12 were rewarded with a payout of $7,900.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/15/14 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
There's a double carryover for Saturday's Pick Six at Del Mar, which tends to be good news for those playing the Pick Four. The big carryover attracts more players into the Pick Six pool, who in turn will often jump into the Pick Four pool, after either being knocked out of the Pick Six in either the first or second leg, or looking to cover combinations in the Pick Four that they left open on their Pick Six tickets. So the Pick Four pool should be especially healthy today; and, Good Lord willing, we'll have a piece of it when all is said and done.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Megyns Gold (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 8 Miss Centerfold (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Prettypreciousheir (ML 6-1)
# 11 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
EDIT: # 3 Longstocking (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Megyns Gold seems to have an affinity for the polytrack, as the best two races of her career were both over the Del Mar main track.
Miss Centerfold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place in her debut last time out.
Prettypreciousheir is a first time starter by Wildcat Heir, whose descendants win approximately 16% of their debuts. She's a Big Winner suffered an awkward start in her debut last time out, and then suffered again as she was rushed to the front. She's a Big Winner deserves a chance to at least show what she can do.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Island Freedom (ML 8-1)
# 9 Presenceofagenius (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Play Hard to Get (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Husband's Folly (ML 9-2)
# 10 Macho Sox (ML 8-1)
The undefeated Island Freedom stretches out from his last race win sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita, so the increase in distance is not as great as it may first appear.
Presenceofagenius disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out back in April. He'll be going for the first time today with Jerry Hollendorfer as his trainer.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 4 Megyns Gold (Morning Line 9-2)
B's
# 8 Miss Centerfold (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Prettypreciousheir (ML 6-1)
# 11 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
EDIT: # 3 Longstocking (ML 6-1) has been scratched.
Megyns Gold seems to have an affinity for the polytrack, as the best two races of her career were both over the Del Mar main track.
Miss Centerfold, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, took the Place in her debut last time out.
Prettypreciousheir is a first time starter by Wildcat Heir, whose descendants win approximately 16% of their debuts. She's a Big Winner suffered an awkward start in her debut last time out, and then suffered again as she was rushed to the front. She's a Big Winner deserves a chance to at least show what she can do.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Island Freedom (ML 8-1)
# 9 Presenceofagenius (ML 5-1)
B's
# 11 Play Hard to Get (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Toledo Eddie (ML 6-1)
# 6 Husband's Folly (ML 9-2)
# 10 Macho Sox (ML 8-1)
The undefeated Island Freedom stretches out from his last race win sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita, so the increase in distance is not as great as it may first appear.
Presenceofagenius disappointed as the Post Time Favorite last time out back in April. He'll be going for the first time today with Jerry Hollendorfer as his trainer.
Play Hard to Get broke his maiden two starts back over this turf course. Play Hard to Get does his best running late, so it's a question of whether or not there will be enough pace for him to close into.
Toledo Eddie is a much better horse on dirt; despite that, he has shown himself to be competitive at this class level on the turf in the past, and therefore must be respected.
Husband's Folly, like Presenceofagenius, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Husband's Folly certainly has the talent to defeat these; but he seems to always come up just short at this class level. Macho Sox took the Show at this class level last time out, and Doug O'Neil's assistant Leandro Mora does very well with runners going second off a layoff.
RACE 8 - The Bob Hope (Grade 3) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 6 Alright Alright (ML 7-2)
# 7 All Indians (ML 6-1)
B's
None
C’s
# 2 Story to Tell (ML 8-1)
# 3 Diamond Majesty (ML 9-2)
# 5 Every May (ML 15-1)
# 9 St. Joe Bay (ML 5-1)
# 4 Prime Engine (ML 3-1) has been scratched. Look for him a week from today in the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Alright Alright has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned in his debut last month at Santa Anita. Alright Alright also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. The question here is how he will handle the polytrack.
All Indians is the only entrant here with a victory over the Del Mar main track, and could be the speed of the speed in this juvenile affair.
Story to Tell looked awful in his lone prior start on the polytrack; but he also went on the shelf for two months immediately after that contest. So was it the surface or was it just that Story to Tell was not 100% for The Best Pal? If the problem that day wasn't the synthetics, then Story to Tell could upset here at a nice price.
Diamond Majesty, sired by Lookin At Lucky, ran well breaking his maiden last time out on the grass. Perhaps that turf form transfers well to the polytrack. Every May is the only runner here besides All Indians to have won on a sythetic surface.
St. Joe Bay had to drop to the Maiden Claiming ranks to get his first victory; but he won convincingly, by over ten lengths; and his sire (Saint Anddan) did capture the Show in his only try on a synthetic surface, in the 2007 running of the Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes.
RACE 9 - Clm $32k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 4 Hadfunlastnight (ML 9-2)
B's
# 6 Ranulf (ML 12-1)
# 12 Regally Soul (ML 10-1)
C's
# 5 Endless Cruise (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fighting On (ML 5-1)
# 10 Passing Game (ML 7-2) has been scratched.
Hadfunlastnight, four-for-eight lifetime over this main track, defeated more expensive stock two starts back. Passing Game goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 36% of such.
Ranulf won at this level two starts back, and defeated more expensive in the start before that. Ranulf is two-for-four lifetime when competing on a synthetic surface. Regally Soul took the Place the last time that he competed over this main track, just a half length behind Hadfunlastnight.
Endless Cruise has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed over the Del Mar main track. Fighting On goes first off the claim for Trainer Robertino Diodoro, who wins with approximately 29% of such.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice that we're using "B's" again; so, yeah, there will be more tickets to punch. EDIT: The tickets below have been changed to reflect the scratch of # 3 Longstocking, a "B" Selection, from Race 6. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $6.00
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $4.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $8.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 8 with 11 with 6,7 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 8 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 6,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 11 with 6,7 with 6,12 $2.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,6,10 with 6,7 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 2,3,5,9 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 4,9 with 6,7 with 5,9 $4.00
Total: $40.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, November 9, 2014
11/9/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 3 Sunday Stroll (Final Odds 3.60) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 2 Colonel Joan (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 2 More Complexity (3.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Synnin (3.00*) - "B" Selection
Our strategy was to spread wide. Unfortunately, we did not spread wide enough; because, despite using five runners in each of the two middle legs, we had no part of the winner in either contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,094.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 2 Colonel Joan (9.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Betty Grable - # 2 More Complexity (3.60) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 3 Synnin (3.00*) - "B" Selection
Our strategy was to spread wide. Unfortunately, we did not spread wide enough; because, despite using five runners in each of the two middle legs, we had no part of the winner in either contest.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 3 / 2 / 2 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $1,094.35 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
11/9/14 Del Mar Late Pick Four - Preview
And we're back. Hopefully you all had a good time during the Breeders' Cup; perhaps some of you even turned a profit over the course of those two days (alas, I did not). But now it's time to turn to the present, and the present is offering something not seen in over forty-five years: Autumn racing at Del Mar. The meet has been off to a good start; so let's get in on the action and take a run at Sunday's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Rosa Divina (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Sunday Stroll (ML 10-1)
# 4 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Precious Caroline (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 6 Here Comes Bobbie (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bold Decision (ML 4-1)
We'll be using seven of the ten horses in this field one way or another, which reflects my opinion that this one is pretty wide open. It's a weak field, even for the class level (none of the entrants earned a Beyer Speed Figure within a dozen points of par in their last race) and the surface switch from dirt to plastic for many entered here just complicates matters further.
Rosa Divina disappointed in each of her last two races as the Post Time Favorite. Rosa Divina took the Place at this class level last time out, and took the Show in her last race over this main track, also at this class level.
Sunday Stroll earned her best career Beyer Speed Figure the only time prior to today that she raced with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back. Sunday Stroll will also be putting the blinkers back on today, which may help her get a jump on the rest of this field.
Southern Owah took a nice step forward last time out in her second career race, when she took the Place at this class level. However this will be her first race on the polytrack, and your guess is as good as mine as to how she'll handle it.
Precious Caroline drops in for a tag after running against non-Claiming Maidens in her prior two starts. Perhaps the class relief will do her well today; but perhaps not, as she was well beaten the one prior time that she ran for a tag, and her Beyers don't stand out against what the rest of the field has earned.
Here Comes Bobbie took the Show last time out, and was within three lengths of the winner in her only prior try on a synthetic surface; both of those races being run against this level of competition. Bold Decision ran for a tag for the first time in her career last time out and was able to take the Show; but it was a well-beaten third, as she was close to ten lengths back at the wire.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sweet Profit (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charlie's Angel (Fr) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Sweet Tess (ML 5-1)
# 7 Loan Savant (ML 6-1)
Chilada misses by just half a length of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Chilada's two Wins in that three race sequence both came with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back; Trujillo gets the mount again today.
Sweet Profit tries two turns for the first time, as well as making her first start on turf. Expect her to be quick early; indeed, she just might smoke the grass before the others can get started.
Charlie's Angel (Fr) broke her maiden overseas against Allowance company, and just missed by a neck of adding a second win at that level. She started slow but moved well late in her North American debut last time out; if she moves forward off that effort she could win today.
Sweet Tess has shown herself to be competitive at this level. Loan Savant moves up from the Claiming ranks, but she did take the Show the last time that she ran against OC/N1X company.
RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Tribal Gal (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Meinertzhageni (ML 6-1)
# 4 Warren's Veranda (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sweet Marini (ML 5-1)
Tribal Gal looks to be in top form, having taken the Place in Graded Stakes company last time out after winning her two races prior to that.
Meinertzhageni has finished in the Exacta in five of her six races on a synthetic surface, including all three of her races on the Del Mar main track. Warren's Veranda has also shown an affinity for the plastic, winning three of her five career races on a synthetic surface.
Swiss Lake Yodeler was a two time state bred stakes winner last Fall; perhaps she just likes this time of year. Sweet Marini is the top career earner in this field on synthetic surfaces, and should be forwardly placed early. If Tribal Gal doesn't start well, Sweet Marini may be the one leading the pack all the way around the track.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 City State (ML 6-1)
# 3 Synnin (ML 5-1)
# 7 The Custodian (ML 9-2)
# 8 Siberian's Rule (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 10 Easy Ten (ML 6-1)
# 11 Papa Z (ML 20-1)
Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level last time out. This will be Itsgettinghotinhere's second start off the layoff for Trainer Vann Belvoir, who wins with approximately 20% of such.
City State took the Show at this class level last time out; his first career in the money finish in nine tries. Perhaps City State is finally figuring it out.
Synnin took the Show at this level last time out, albeit on the polytrack. The Custodian had a rough trip last time out; perhaps he gets a smoother ride today. Siberian's Rule makes his second career start after getting off slow in his debut.
Easy Ten and Papa Z are a pair of first time starters in a field that lacks any true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. We had to resort to using "B's" as well as our usual "A's" and "C's", but I think it's justified based upon the competitive nature of these fields and the fact that we're dealing with a significant number of surfaces changes as we move from dirt to polytrack. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method; so with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 4 $4.50
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Rosa Divina (Morning Line 5-2)
# 3 Sunday Stroll (ML 10-1)
# 4 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Precious Caroline (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 6 Here Comes Bobbie (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bold Decision (ML 4-1)
We'll be using seven of the ten horses in this field one way or another, which reflects my opinion that this one is pretty wide open. It's a weak field, even for the class level (none of the entrants earned a Beyer Speed Figure within a dozen points of par in their last race) and the surface switch from dirt to plastic for many entered here just complicates matters further.
Rosa Divina disappointed in each of her last two races as the Post Time Favorite. Rosa Divina took the Place at this class level last time out, and took the Show in her last race over this main track, also at this class level.
Sunday Stroll earned her best career Beyer Speed Figure the only time prior to today that she raced with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back. Sunday Stroll will also be putting the blinkers back on today, which may help her get a jump on the rest of this field.
Southern Owah took a nice step forward last time out in her second career race, when she took the Place at this class level. However this will be her first race on the polytrack, and your guess is as good as mine as to how she'll handle it.
Precious Caroline drops in for a tag after running against non-Claiming Maidens in her prior two starts. Perhaps the class relief will do her well today; but perhaps not, as she was well beaten the one prior time that she ran for a tag, and her Beyers don't stand out against what the rest of the field has earned.
Here Comes Bobbie took the Show last time out, and was within three lengths of the winner in her only prior try on a synthetic surface; both of those races being run against this level of competition. Bold Decision ran for a tag for the first time in her career last time out and was able to take the Show; but it was a well-beaten third, as she was close to ten lengths back at the wire.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
B's
# 6 Sweet Profit (ML 5-1)
# 8 Charlie's Angel (Fr) (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Sweet Tess (ML 5-1)
# 7 Loan Savant (ML 6-1)
Chilada misses by just half a length of coming into this contest with a three race winning streak. Chilada's two Wins in that three race sequence both came with Jockey Elvis Trujillo on her back; Trujillo gets the mount again today.
Sweet Profit tries two turns for the first time, as well as making her first start on turf. Expect her to be quick early; indeed, she just might smoke the grass before the others can get started.
Charlie's Angel (Fr) broke her maiden overseas against Allowance company, and just missed by a neck of adding a second win at that level. She started slow but moved well late in her North American debut last time out; if she moves forward off that effort she could win today.
Sweet Tess has shown herself to be competitive at this level. Loan Savant moves up from the Claiming ranks, but she did take the Show the last time that she ran against OC/N1X company.
RACE 8 - [S] (F) The Betty Grable $100k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Tribal Gal (ML 7-2)
B's
# 1 Meinertzhageni (ML 6-1)
# 4 Warren's Veranda (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 5-1)
# 6 Sweet Marini (ML 5-1)
Tribal Gal looks to be in top form, having taken the Place in Graded Stakes company last time out after winning her two races prior to that.
Meinertzhageni has finished in the Exacta in five of her six races on a synthetic surface, including all three of her races on the Del Mar main track. Warren's Veranda has also shown an affinity for the plastic, winning three of her five career races on a synthetic surface.
Swiss Lake Yodeler was a two time state bred stakes winner last Fall; perhaps she just likes this time of year. Sweet Marini is the top career earner in this field on synthetic surfaces, and should be forwardly placed early. If Tribal Gal doesn't start well, Sweet Marini may be the one leading the pack all the way around the track.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Itsgettinghotinhere (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 City State (ML 6-1)
# 3 Synnin (ML 5-1)
# 7 The Custodian (ML 9-2)
# 8 Siberian's Rule (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 10 Easy Ten (ML 6-1)
# 11 Papa Z (ML 20-1)
Itsgettinghotinhere took the Place at this level last time out. This will be Itsgettinghotinhere's second start off the layoff for Trainer Vann Belvoir, who wins with approximately 20% of such.
City State took the Show at this class level last time out; his first career in the money finish in nine tries. Perhaps City State is finally figuring it out.
Synnin took the Show at this level last time out, albeit on the polytrack. The Custodian had a rough trip last time out; perhaps he gets a smoother ride today. Siberian's Rule makes his second career start after getting off slow in his debut.
Easy Ten and Papa Z are a pair of first time starters in a field that lacks any true standout.
OK, that's the analysis. We had to resort to using "B's" as well as our usual "A's" and "C's", but I think it's justified based upon the competitive nature of these fields and the fact that we're dealing with a significant number of surfaces changes as we move from dirt to polytrack. As usual, we're going to play our tickets using the Crist method; so with that we get:
All A Entries
$1.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 4 $4.50
A's with One B
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$1.00 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
A's with Two B's
$0.50 P4: 9 with 6,8 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 1,4 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 1,4 with 4 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 6,8 with 9 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 1,4 with 2,3,7,8 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 4 with 9 with 4 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 5,7 with 9 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 5,6 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 4 with 9 with 10,11 $3.00
Total: $73.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:30 EST / 2:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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