As we quickly close in on America's Day(s) at the Races, the 2013 Breeders' Cup this Friday and Saturday @ Santa Anita, I thought that you all might appreciate a rundown of each of the Breeders' Cup races, as well as some betting strategies that you can employ for each contest. Well, you're not going to get that from me. There are just too many races with too many contenders for me to even consider such a task. Instead, allow me to point you to a couple of sites that will give you that for free (provided that you're willing to give them your email address).
Brisnet.com is offering analysis of each of the Breeders' Cup contests here; while Xpressbet.com is offering a free 2013 Breeders' Cup Wagering Guide (with analysis from the likes of Bob Neumeier, Steve Byk, and Jeremy Plonk, among others) here. Both are excellent resources.
As for me, Good Lord willing I'll post a Pick Four play or two so that we'll all have something that we'll later be able to look upon with admiration, or point at and laugh. And in the interests of recycling, allow me to post a couple of paragraphs that I pretty much just copied and pasted from my BC preview post last year:
That which makes The Breeders' Cup races unique is that each field is comprised of nothing but top of the line horses; so no matter who you land on in any given race, you're going to be betting on a quality horse (and, yes, that includes the Maidens; remember Hightail, winner of last year's BC Juvenile Sprint). Because of that, these races are a bargain hunter's dream. For example, where else but in a Breeders' Cup race are you going to find a horse like Obviously (Ire), winner of this year's and last year's Del Mar Handicap, as well as this year's Shoemaker Mile, with Morning Line odds of 10-1? Or two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup Winner (and winner of this year's Westchester Stakes and Suburban Handicap) Flat Out with a Morning Line of 12-1? So if you're the type that likes to swing for the fences and go for price, these races are for you.
Another tip I would give to all who are reading this is: be flexible. Be ready to change your plans if and when new data becomes available. Remember the Life At Ten Incident; sometimes key information doesn't become known until just a few minutes prior to post. So be alert to how the track is playing; watch the board to see which horses are getting ignored by the public; observe which jockey(s) seems to know exactly which lane to take to the finish line in the stretch; and don't be afraid to re-think your opinion in light of new facts.
And finally, above all: HAVE FUN. If you're a horse player, these are your events; these days are made for you. This is where you get to see the best compete against the best, in pretty much every category imaginable. Enjoy the competition; enjoy the improvement of the breed; enjoy watching these great athletes strut their stuff; enjoy yourself; because if you're not having fun, why bother?
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
10/29/13 Charles Town Race 8 - Results
Race 8 at Charles Town is official. And we done good.
# 10 Saturday Surprise (Final Odds 2-5) Wins, paying $2.80 / $2.40 / $2.20. So our $10 across nets a $7.00 profit.
# 1 Shea Ballet (20-1) finishes third, paying $6.60 to Show. So our $2 across nets a $0.60 profit.
Since neither the # 1 nor the # 9 Lookout Kate (24-1) finished second, these three wagers:
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00
$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00
are losers. Net loss on those three tickets is $10.00.
# 4 Cecileabration (11-1) took the Place; the # 10 / # 4 Exacta paid $7.70. So our one dollar Exacta Part-Wheel of the # 10 on top of # 1 and # 4 (a two dollar investment) nets a profit of $5.70.
The four dollars we invested in the one dollar Trifecta of #10 on top of # 9 on top of four other horses is lost. But the six dollars that we invested in the one dollar Trifecta of # 10 keyed on top of # 1, # 4, and # 9 returns $86.70. So the ten dollars total investment in Trifecta tickets nets a profit of $76.70.
Since # 9 did not finish in the top four, our dime Superfecta box costing two dollars and forty cents is lost. However, our dime Superfecta with the # 10 on top of # 1, # 4, and # 9 on top of # 1, # 4, # 5, and # 9 on top of “ALL”, a six dollar and thirty cent investment, returns $19.99, making our net profit from playing the Superfecta $11.29.
So the bottom line is that our total investment in Race 8 @ Charles Town of $66.70 returns $158.19, a profit of $91.49. And while profit is always good, it's even better when it's increased from making the right moves; as the profit we earned from our play is more than the profit we would have made had we just put the full investment on Saturday Surprise to Win.
So we padded our bankroll a bit right before the Breeders' Cup; not bad for a Tuesday's night work. I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/29/13 Charles Town Race 8 - Preview
Took a look at Tuesday's DRF.com Race of the Day, Race 8 @ Charles Town. After scanning the Past Performances I pretty much agree with what Dan Illman and Mike Beer have to say in the video: that # 10 Saturday Surprise is a clear standout, and no way she’s going to go to Post at a price as good as the Morning Line Odds of 3-1. I also think # 9 Lookout Kate (ML 8-1) is probably the second best horse in this field. In addition, # 1 Shea Ballet (ML 10-1) could be the controlling speed in this event. Factor in that Shea Ballet does have three Wins (in seven tries) at tonight’s seven furlong distance, and there’s a good chance that, even if she gets passed in the stretch, she can hang on to finish in the money.
Okay; so that’s the analysis. Here’s how I’ll be playing it:
$10.00 WPS 10 $30.00
$2.00 WPS 1 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00
$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00
$1.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4 $2.00
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $4.00
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 9 $6.00
$0.10 SF (BOX ) 1, 4, 9, 10 $2.40
$0.10 SF (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 5, 9 / ALL $6.30
So we’ve got the lion’s share of our money on the results we most expect to occur, while spreading out enough to give us a little leverage, and also a chance at a really nice payoff. For example, if they finish 10-9, our $10 across on the 10 pays out; we’ve got $4 on the 10-9 Exacta; and we’ve got an excellent chance of having the Trifecta and the Superfecta. If they finish 9-10, we’ve got $2 on the Exacta; we still collect on our Place and Show bets on the 10; and we’re still alive in the Superfecta. If the 1 should wire the field, she should pay enough to Win to cover most of the other bets, and we’ve still got a chance of having the Exacta and the Superfecta. Finally, if the Morning Line Favorite # 2 Lucky Lady Lawyer should prove that she was much better than we thought and Win, while the 10 finishes out of the money, we get to scratch our heads, shrug our shoulders, and move on to the next race.
Post Time for Race 8 @ Charles Town is 10:25 EDT / 7:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Okay; so that’s the analysis. Here’s how I’ll be playing it:
$10.00 WPS 10 $30.00
$2.00 WPS 1 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00
$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00
$1.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4 $2.00
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $4.00
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 9 $6.00
$0.10 SF (BOX ) 1, 4, 9, 10 $2.40
$0.10 SF (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 5, 9 / ALL $6.30
So we’ve got the lion’s share of our money on the results we most expect to occur, while spreading out enough to give us a little leverage, and also a chance at a really nice payoff. For example, if they finish 10-9, our $10 across on the 10 pays out; we’ve got $4 on the 10-9 Exacta; and we’ve got an excellent chance of having the Trifecta and the Superfecta. If they finish 9-10, we’ve got $2 on the Exacta; we still collect on our Place and Show bets on the 10; and we’re still alive in the Superfecta. If the 1 should wire the field, she should pay enough to Win to cover most of the other bets, and we’ve still got a chance of having the Exacta and the Superfecta. Finally, if the Morning Line Favorite # 2 Lucky Lady Lawyer should prove that she was much better than we thought and Win, while the 10 finishes out of the money, we get to scratch our heads, shrug our shoulders, and move on to the next race.
Post Time for Race 8 @ Charles Town is 10:25 EDT / 7:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 27, 2013
10/27/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Results
So that which we thought was oh so complicated turned out to be oh so simple. Four of the first five races on Santa Anita's Sunday card were won by the Post Time Favorite. Four of the first five races saw the eventual winner in front after the first half mile. None of the first five races were close at the finish, as every winner crossed the wire at least a length in front (actually, this condition would hold throughout the card, as all nine winners won by daylight).
While not a part of the Early Pick Four sequence, we begin with Race 1, as this set the pattern for what was to come; as # 4 Segway (Final Odds 2.40*) took the early lead and was never headed, crossing the wire a length and a half in front of the rest of the field, giving Jockey Gary Stevens the first of his four winners on the day.
The Early Pick Four kicked off with Race 2, which was won by # 2 Be Proud (2.00), thus justifying our scepticism of Morning Line and Post Time Favorite, # 4 Salsita (1.10*). Too bad for the bridge jumpers that they didn't share our scepticism, as their wagers created a negative Show Pool, which in turn created some very nice payouts when Salsita finished out of the money.
The final three legs of the Pick Four sequence were chalk 'em up affairs. Race 3 went to # 3 Tappingintherain (1.80*) with Gary Stevens on top, while Race 4 went to the Bejarano ridden # 7 Horizontalyspeakin (2.10*). The final leg of the sequence, Race 5, saw Jockey Gary Stevens again getting his picture taken; as # 1 Tiz the Truth (0.70*), despite running the opening quarter in 21.98 and the opening half in 44.70, was able to lead the pack for all eight furlongs and win by over two lengths.
So with all that, we collect on our Pick Four play; but we do not win, as the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 7 / 1 paid $41.55 for a fifty cent wager; $22.45 less than our initial $64.00 investment. Still, speaking as someone with experience in this area, I can truly state that's it's better to cash at a loss than to not cash at all.
Onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
While not a part of the Early Pick Four sequence, we begin with Race 1, as this set the pattern for what was to come; as # 4 Segway (Final Odds 2.40*) took the early lead and was never headed, crossing the wire a length and a half in front of the rest of the field, giving Jockey Gary Stevens the first of his four winners on the day.
The Early Pick Four kicked off with Race 2, which was won by # 2 Be Proud (2.00), thus justifying our scepticism of Morning Line and Post Time Favorite, # 4 Salsita (1.10*). Too bad for the bridge jumpers that they didn't share our scepticism, as their wagers created a negative Show Pool, which in turn created some very nice payouts when Salsita finished out of the money.
The final three legs of the Pick Four sequence were chalk 'em up affairs. Race 3 went to # 3 Tappingintherain (1.80*) with Gary Stevens on top, while Race 4 went to the Bejarano ridden # 7 Horizontalyspeakin (2.10*). The final leg of the sequence, Race 5, saw Jockey Gary Stevens again getting his picture taken; as # 1 Tiz the Truth (0.70*), despite running the opening quarter in 21.98 and the opening half in 44.70, was able to lead the pack for all eight furlongs and win by over two lengths.
So with all that, we collect on our Pick Four play; but we do not win, as the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 7 / 1 paid $41.55 for a fifty cent wager; $22.45 less than our initial $64.00 investment. Still, speaking as someone with experience in this area, I can truly state that's it's better to cash at a loss than to not cash at all.
Onto the next race.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/27/13 Santa Anita Early Pick Four - Preview
My original plan was to take a run at today’s Pick Five @ Santa Anita (Races 1-5). However, after looking over the card, I wasn’t comfortable with any play that cost less than three figures. So instead, I’ll be putting in a play on Sunday's Early Pick Four @ Santa Anita (Races 2-5).
RACE 2 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Be Proud (Morning Line 8-5) and # 1 Arethusa (Morning Line 3-1) exit the same September 27 race, where they took the Place and Show, respectively. Arethusa has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field, while Be Proud, despite still being a maiden, is stakes placed. Be Proud is trained by Bob Baffet.
# 4 Salsita (ML 1-1) has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field, earned her last time out in her second career start, where she lost by just a half length. But that race was just seven furlongs; this will be Salsita’s first time time around two turns, and the fact that she has the lowest Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance does not inspire confidence that she’ll do well stretching out. I’ll still be using her in my play; but I don’t think making her a single in this contest is the right way to go. Indeed; my reluctance to single Salsita here played a large role in my decision to drop my Pick Five play.
# 3 Consecrate (ML 8-1) is the other Baffert in this contest. Consecrate is making her second career start; Baffert wins approximately 28% of the time with such. Consecrate last competed back on August 18; Baffert wins approximately 28% of the time when bringing one of his charges back from a two-three month vacation. Note also that both the Winner and the Place horse in Consecrate’s debut came back to win their next time out. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on top of Consecrate today.
RACE 3 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
While Race 2 is for juveniles, Race 3 is for Fillies and Mares, three years old and upward (though, technically, since none of the entrants is older than four, they're all filles).
# 6 The Magic Stone (ML 5-2) and # 3 Tappingintherain (ML 2-1) both exit the same six furlong race over this main track back on September 29, where they took the Place and Show, respectively. Tappingintherain has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and gets a rider switch from Mike Smith to Gary Stevens (what year is this again?).
RACE 4 - Alw N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 7 Horizontalyspeakin (ML 3-1) and # 8 Appealing Tale (ML 5-2) both have the distinction of taking the Show behind Tom’s Tribute over this turf course their last time out; Horizontalyspeakin on September 29 in a first level Optional Claimer; and Appealing Tale in the ungraded Uniformity Stakes last week. Speaking of last week, note that Appealing Tale’s trainer (Peter Miller) gets victories from his horses approximately 19% of the time when sending them out with seven or fewer days rest.
# 6 My Samurai Warrior (ML 10-1) could be disadvantaged by the probable pace scenario in this one; as My Samurai Warrior prefers to come from behind, and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed in this one (unless # 5 Swift Eagle (ML 12-1) and # 7 Horizontalyspeakin decide to duel each other into the ground). My Samurai Warrior has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and Trainer Victor Garcia visits the Winner’s Circle about a quarter of the time that he takes one of his horses from a sprint to a route.
RACE 5 - Alw N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Tiz the Truth (ML 9-5) enters this event with the best last out Beyer in the field, earned over this main track at a distance a half-furlong longer than today. Tiz the Truth has been in the Exacta all three times that he’s raced at Santa Anita; perhaps not so coincidentally, those are also the only three times in his career that Tiz the Truth has been in the Exacta. Bob Baffert is the trainer, while Gary Stevens gets the ride.
# 5 Fury Kapcori (ML 5-2) makes just his second start outside of stakes competition since breaking his maiden as a two year old last August. Fury Kapcori has earned steadily increasing Beyers in each of his three races this year. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer, while Rafael Bejarano will be in the saddle.
# 3 Everton (ML 8-1) is the other Baffert in this field. Everton is returning from a three month freshening; note that Baffert has a .28 Winning Percentage with such. Baffert also possesses a .28 Winning Percentage in Allowance Races, as well as a .26 Winning Percentage when going for back-to-back Wins. Everton is just a head away from being a perfect three-for-three for his career, and has been working well over the Santa Anita track for this comeback. Martin Garcia, who was on board for all of Everton’s other career starts, gets the mount again today.
As all of the above three prefer to do their running on the front end, I’m going to cover myself with a couple of closers in this event:
# 4 Tree of Life (ML 12-1), like Fury Kapcori, is making just his second start outside of stakes competition since breaking his maiden as a two year old last year. Tree of Life has been in the Exacta both times that he has competed on a fast dirt track.
The last time # 7 American Blend (ML 6-1) ran an eight furlong race over the main dirt track at Santa Anita he earned a career best Beyer and got his picture taken after the race. American Blend is making his first start since May 17; note that Trainer Carla Gaines wins over twenty percent of the time that she brings a horse back from a vacation of between two-six months. American Blend has been firing bullets in his workouts, and will be donning blinkers today. This horse could be live at a really good price. Victor Espinoza will be on board today.
After playing with various combinations, I decided that my play today will be a little over my usual budget. I believe this is justified by the competitiveness of each leg; we'll know later this afternoon if it it was the correct decision. Both tickets will be of the fifty cent variety.
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 3, 6
RACE 4: 7, 8
RACE 5: 1,5
Cost: $4.00
RACE 2: 1, 2, 3, 4
RACE 3: 3, 6
RACE 4: 6, 7, 8
RACE 5: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Cost: $60.00
TOTAL COST: $64.00
Post Time for Race 2 is 4:30 EDT / 1:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 20, 2013
10/19/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Looks like we bought the wrong race in the sequence.
We had hoped to get # 3 Cinco de Mario (Final Odds 3.20) home in Race 6, the opening leg of the Late Pick Four. But while Cinco de Mario was coming hard at the finish he couldn't quite get there in time; as crossing the wire first was # 1 Field Report (0.70*) who finally overcame the seconditis that had been plaguing him since last New Year's Eve.
Since we had him among our "C" contenders, Field Report's win kept us alive; but it meant we needed # 9 Summer Exclusive (1.40*) to come through for us in Race 7. And come through he did, breaking fast from the gate to be the widest in a row of four battling for the early lead before pulling ahead and never looking back. Summer Exclusive didn't win in the manner that we had thought that he would; but better to have the right horse for the wrong reason than the wrong horse for the right reason.
We had hit the "ALL" button for the finale, so if we got one of the three we covered in Race 8 home we would collect. We had figured one of our cover three, # 4 Atta Boy Pete (6.90) to be the early leader; and we were correct, as Atta Boy Pete lead the charge down the hill until being passed by another of our trio, # 9 Strong Wind (3.20) who was in front of the pack as they entered the stretch. But Strong Wind tired, and relinquished the lead inside the sixteenth pole to the third in our triple coverage, # 7 Ain't No Other (2.70*); who in turn was passed just before the wire by # 2 A Toast to You (18.90) who won by half a length, killing our Late Pick Four play.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, Race 9, the last leg of sequence, proved to be not nearly as difficult for the public to decipher as it had been for us; as the Post Time Favorite, # 5 Water Issues (1.90*) and the public's second choice, # 9 She's Flush (2.30) filled out the Exacta in that order. Incidentally, if you took the three horses that we named in our analysis and boxed them with the Post Time Favorite, you were rewarded with a Superfecta that paid $41.33 for a dime.
As for the Late Pick Four, those who played the correct sequence of 1 / 9 / 2 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $255.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
We had hoped to get # 3 Cinco de Mario (Final Odds 3.20) home in Race 6, the opening leg of the Late Pick Four. But while Cinco de Mario was coming hard at the finish he couldn't quite get there in time; as crossing the wire first was # 1 Field Report (0.70*) who finally overcame the seconditis that had been plaguing him since last New Year's Eve.
Since we had him among our "C" contenders, Field Report's win kept us alive; but it meant we needed # 9 Summer Exclusive (1.40*) to come through for us in Race 7. And come through he did, breaking fast from the gate to be the widest in a row of four battling for the early lead before pulling ahead and never looking back. Summer Exclusive didn't win in the manner that we had thought that he would; but better to have the right horse for the wrong reason than the wrong horse for the right reason.
We had hit the "ALL" button for the finale, so if we got one of the three we covered in Race 8 home we would collect. We had figured one of our cover three, # 4 Atta Boy Pete (6.90) to be the early leader; and we were correct, as Atta Boy Pete lead the charge down the hill until being passed by another of our trio, # 9 Strong Wind (3.20) who was in front of the pack as they entered the stretch. But Strong Wind tired, and relinquished the lead inside the sixteenth pole to the third in our triple coverage, # 7 Ain't No Other (2.70*); who in turn was passed just before the wire by # 2 A Toast to You (18.90) who won by half a length, killing our Late Pick Four play.
Oh well; onto the next race.
For the record, Race 9, the last leg of sequence, proved to be not nearly as difficult for the public to decipher as it had been for us; as the Post Time Favorite, # 5 Water Issues (1.90*) and the public's second choice, # 9 She's Flush (2.30) filled out the Exacta in that order. Incidentally, if you took the three horses that we named in our analysis and boxed them with the Post Time Favorite, you were rewarded with a Superfecta that paid $41.33 for a dime.
As for the Late Pick Four, those who played the correct sequence of 1 / 9 / 2 / 5 were rewarded with a payout of $255.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 19, 2013
10/19/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - The Play
OK; hitting the "ALL" button in the eight horse finale meant making a couple of tough choices; but if either or both Cinco de Mario and Summer Exclusive come through in their respective races then I'll be looking very good. If any of my "C" choices in Race 6 win, then I may have to put some money on Full Consent in the Win Pool in Race 7, so that if he should blow up my Pick Four play I'll at least cut my losses. Of course, if it turns out that I'm all wet about the early speed running itself into the ground before the wire in Race 7, then nothing else will matter. So with all that, here are the three Pick Four Tickets I'll be playing today. All will be of the fifty cent variety.
RACE 6: 3
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $12.00
RACE 6: 1, 5, 7
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $36.00
RACE 6: 3
RACE 7: 8
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is scheduled for 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6: 3
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $12.00
RACE 6: 1, 5, 7
RACE 7: 9
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $36.00
RACE 6: 3
RACE 7: 8
RACE 8: 4, 7, 9
RACE 9: ALL
Cost: $12.00
TOTAL COST: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is scheduled for 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/19/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
There's a two day carryover in the Pick Six at Santa Anita today. And while I'm not rich enough to go swimming in that pool, I know that Pick Six carryovers lead to extra money finding its way into the Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s NW2L - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Field Report (Morning Line 8-5) has developed a clear case of seconditis, having taken the Place in seven of his last eight races. Typically this is a sign of a horse that is good enough to win, but just chooses not to. Maybe they’re afraid to be the lead horse; maybe they just much prefer running side-by-side with their colleagues rather than running ahead of them; but the bottom line is you can lose a lot of money playing these horses in the Win Pool; because they’ll always take a lot of action, and they’ll almost always disappoint. Just look at Field Report’s form: in his nine races since breaking his maiden last September, Field Report has left the gate as the Post Time Favorite seven times without getting his picture taken once.
So I personally would not play Field Report in the Win Pool. But do I feel courageous enough to totally leave him off my Pick Four tickets? Again, he clearly has the talent to defeat this field; note that Field Report has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in the eighties in seven of his last eight races; no other horse in this field has posted a Beyer in the eighties more than twice in that span. So even if he doesn’t want to be the lead horse, Field Report may still cross the wire first anyway against this bunch just by default.
# 3 Cinco de Mario (ML 4-1) was a horse that I thought (when I first saw him as a two year old) would be doing great things in his career. And he still may; after all, Cinco de Mario is still only three years old, and as a gelding, he still has a long career ahead of himself. So it could be that he just hasn’t figured it out yet. Of course, it would also be that I’m just totally wrong about his talent level; time will tell. Anyway, this will be Cinco de Mario’s first time in a turf sprint, and his first time charging down the hill; so if he has any hidden ability, this would be a good time to put it on display.
# 5 Red Man Run (ML 6-1) is one for twenty-two lifetime. Generally, horses with such records are best ignored under these conditions. But Red Man Run won charging down this hill back in March (at 16-1) by over five lengths against non-Claiming maidens; that’s something that’ll catch your eye. Also note his effort two starts back routing on the turf at Golden Gate Fields. The chart of that race says that Red Man Run was able to get the lead in the stretch before fading in the shadow of the wire. Such horses tend to do well when charging down the hill at Santa Anita.
# 7 Life Rule (ML 8-1) is a lightly raced horse making his turf debut for a trainer who wins approximately sixteen percent of the time with such. Note also Trainer Mike Puype’s Winning Pct. of .24 (with a $2.66 ROI) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Life Rule also has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in the field. He may not get enough pace to chase against this bunch; but, on the other hand, if he discovers that he likes himself some California grass, he may not need it.
RACE 7 - Clm $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
There appears to be a ton of early speed in this one; so I am therefore taking a stand against the pure front runners here.
# 9 Summer Exclusive (ML 5-2) gets some class relief today, competing for the first time in his career with a price tag on his head. He’s a stakes winner (albeit on the grass) and broke his maiden over this track back in March. More importantly from my viewpoint is that Summer Exclusive has shown the ability to win by coming off the pace; that’s the ability I’m look for him to display again today.
# 8 Full Consent (ML 6-1) is making just his second career start, having won his debut at the Fairgrounds bullring last month. Trainer Jeff Mullins has a Winning Pct. of .23 when playing the Claiming game, with an ROI of $2.16.
# 5 Too Fast to Pass (ML 15-1) was able to win over the plastic at Del Mar three starts back by going from fourth to first in the stretch. His next time out Too Fast to Pass took the Show at this class level, so he can compete in this company. Too Fast to Pass also has the most victories over a Fast dirt track in this field. Peter Miller is the trainer, with Victor Espinoza on board for the ride.
EDIT - Too Fast to Pass has been scratched from today’s race.
Taking a stand against front runners on a Fast dirt track is a strategy that can easily blow up in your face; after all, jockeys read the Past Performances too, and the good ones adjust accordingly. But horses aren’t the quick learners that you would sometimes hope that they would be; and trying to get one to rate that doesn’t want to often justs leads to a tug of war that wears out both horse and rider well before the finish line. So that’s the stand that I’m taking in this one; we’ll know later this afternoon if it was the right one.
RACE 8 - [R] The California Flag Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 4 Atta Boy Pete (ML 5-1) could be the quickest of the bunch here, and could steal this one on the front end. Atta Boy Pete won his turf debut his last time out by wiring the field at Del Mar in August. The back-to-back bullet works on 10/9 and 10/15 suggests that Atta Boy Pete is ready to run. Look for him to break fast and hope he holds on.
# 7 Ain’t No Other (ML 7-2) won a state-restricted stakes race charging down the hill back in February, and added another stakes victory to his resume in August over the Fresno turf. Jerry Hollendorfer is the Trainer, while Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for that February win, gets the ride.
# 9 Strong Wind (ML 3-1) misses by two necks of coming into this event three for his last three, all against open company. Strong Wind will be making his debut on the downhill turf; but he’s finished in the Exacta in all three of his starts on flat grass courses. Strong Wind has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field. Gary Stevens will be the rider today.
RACE 9 - [S](F) Md $50k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Papa’s Flashy Girl (ML 5-1) is the only horse in this field to have ever competed at a distance greater than six furlongs. # 8 Inherit the Throne (ML 20-1) has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating for the field, albeit a provisional one. # 9 She’s Flush (ML 7-2) took the Place at this class level last time out.
So we a have a contest for maiden two year old state bred fillies where all but one will be routing for the first time in their career. This is pretty much the definition of a chaos race. I can’t imagine any serious Pick Four play that doesn’t involve using every single horse in the field, especially since there’s no way to know how the betting will go. I expect to be buying this race.
Post Time for Race 6, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is scheduled for 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four Tickets posted here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s NW2L - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Field Report (Morning Line 8-5) has developed a clear case of seconditis, having taken the Place in seven of his last eight races. Typically this is a sign of a horse that is good enough to win, but just chooses not to. Maybe they’re afraid to be the lead horse; maybe they just much prefer running side-by-side with their colleagues rather than running ahead of them; but the bottom line is you can lose a lot of money playing these horses in the Win Pool; because they’ll always take a lot of action, and they’ll almost always disappoint. Just look at Field Report’s form: in his nine races since breaking his maiden last September, Field Report has left the gate as the Post Time Favorite seven times without getting his picture taken once.
So I personally would not play Field Report in the Win Pool. But do I feel courageous enough to totally leave him off my Pick Four tickets? Again, he clearly has the talent to defeat this field; note that Field Report has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in the eighties in seven of his last eight races; no other horse in this field has posted a Beyer in the eighties more than twice in that span. So even if he doesn’t want to be the lead horse, Field Report may still cross the wire first anyway against this bunch just by default.
# 3 Cinco de Mario (ML 4-1) was a horse that I thought (when I first saw him as a two year old) would be doing great things in his career. And he still may; after all, Cinco de Mario is still only three years old, and as a gelding, he still has a long career ahead of himself. So it could be that he just hasn’t figured it out yet. Of course, it would also be that I’m just totally wrong about his talent level; time will tell. Anyway, this will be Cinco de Mario’s first time in a turf sprint, and his first time charging down the hill; so if he has any hidden ability, this would be a good time to put it on display.
# 5 Red Man Run (ML 6-1) is one for twenty-two lifetime. Generally, horses with such records are best ignored under these conditions. But Red Man Run won charging down this hill back in March (at 16-1) by over five lengths against non-Claiming maidens; that’s something that’ll catch your eye. Also note his effort two starts back routing on the turf at Golden Gate Fields. The chart of that race says that Red Man Run was able to get the lead in the stretch before fading in the shadow of the wire. Such horses tend to do well when charging down the hill at Santa Anita.
# 7 Life Rule (ML 8-1) is a lightly raced horse making his turf debut for a trainer who wins approximately sixteen percent of the time with such. Note also Trainer Mike Puype’s Winning Pct. of .24 (with a $2.66 ROI) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Life Rule also has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in the field. He may not get enough pace to chase against this bunch; but, on the other hand, if he discovers that he likes himself some California grass, he may not need it.
RACE 7 - Clm $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
There appears to be a ton of early speed in this one; so I am therefore taking a stand against the pure front runners here.
# 9 Summer Exclusive (ML 5-2) gets some class relief today, competing for the first time in his career with a price tag on his head. He’s a stakes winner (albeit on the grass) and broke his maiden over this track back in March. More importantly from my viewpoint is that Summer Exclusive has shown the ability to win by coming off the pace; that’s the ability I’m look for him to display again today.
# 8 Full Consent (ML 6-1) is making just his second career start, having won his debut at the Fairgrounds bullring last month. Trainer Jeff Mullins has a Winning Pct. of .23 when playing the Claiming game, with an ROI of $2.16.
# 5 Too Fast to Pass (ML 15-1) was able to win over the plastic at Del Mar three starts back by going from fourth to first in the stretch. His next time out Too Fast to Pass took the Show at this class level, so he can compete in this company. Too Fast to Pass also has the most victories over a Fast dirt track in this field. Peter Miller is the trainer, with Victor Espinoza on board for the ride.
EDIT - Too Fast to Pass has been scratched from today’s race.
Taking a stand against front runners on a Fast dirt track is a strategy that can easily blow up in your face; after all, jockeys read the Past Performances too, and the good ones adjust accordingly. But horses aren’t the quick learners that you would sometimes hope that they would be; and trying to get one to rate that doesn’t want to often justs leads to a tug of war that wears out both horse and rider well before the finish line. So that’s the stand that I’m taking in this one; we’ll know later this afternoon if it was the right one.
RACE 8 - [R] The California Flag Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 4 Atta Boy Pete (ML 5-1) could be the quickest of the bunch here, and could steal this one on the front end. Atta Boy Pete won his turf debut his last time out by wiring the field at Del Mar in August. The back-to-back bullet works on 10/9 and 10/15 suggests that Atta Boy Pete is ready to run. Look for him to break fast and hope he holds on.
# 7 Ain’t No Other (ML 7-2) won a state-restricted stakes race charging down the hill back in February, and added another stakes victory to his resume in August over the Fresno turf. Jerry Hollendorfer is the Trainer, while Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for that February win, gets the ride.
# 9 Strong Wind (ML 3-1) misses by two necks of coming into this event three for his last three, all against open company. Strong Wind will be making his debut on the downhill turf; but he’s finished in the Exacta in all three of his starts on flat grass courses. Strong Wind has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field. Gary Stevens will be the rider today.
RACE 9 - [S](F) Md $50k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Papa’s Flashy Girl (ML 5-1) is the only horse in this field to have ever competed at a distance greater than six furlongs. # 8 Inherit the Throne (ML 20-1) has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating for the field, albeit a provisional one. # 9 She’s Flush (ML 7-2) took the Place at this class level last time out.
So we a have a contest for maiden two year old state bred fillies where all but one will be routing for the first time in their career. This is pretty much the definition of a chaos race. I can’t imagine any serious Pick Four play that doesn’t involve using every single horse in the field, especially since there’s no way to know how the betting will go. I expect to be buying this race.
Post Time for Race 6, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is scheduled for 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four Tickets posted here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tampa Bay Downs To Offer Million-Dollar Kentucky Derby Bonus
Quoting from the article by Frank Angst over at Bloodhorse.com:
Tampa Bay Downs is offering a $1 million bonus payout in 2014 to the owner of any horse sweeping the track's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), and Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
The "Tampa Bay Downs Million Dollar Derby Bonus" is in addition to the regular purses for the $250,000 Sam F. Davis, which is Feb. 1, the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby March 8, and the May 3 Kentucky Derby.
Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby for owner WinStar Farm after finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby, while Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby for owner James Tafel after capturing the Tampa Bay Derby in record time.
Additionally, the Tampa Bay Derby is part of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, awarding 50 points to the winner, 20 to the runner-up, 10 for third place and 5 for fourth place. Points go toward determining which 20 3-year-olds are eligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Had the "Tampa Bay Downs Million Dollar Derby Bonus" been in effect in 2006, WinStar Farm's Bluegrass Cat would have come close to taking home the prize. After winning the Sam F. Davis, he finished second in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Musket Man, owned by Eric Fein and Vic Carlson, finished third in the Sam F. Davis, won the Tampa Bay Derby and was third in the Kentucky Derby.
Horses that have won both the Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby include Phantom Jet in 1987; Speedy Cure in 1991; Marco Bay in 1993; Thundering Storm in 1996; and Burning Roma in 2001. None of the five competed in the Kentucky Derby.
"The Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby both came into being in 1981, so it seems a natural fit to combine them for purposes of the bonus," [general manager Peter] Berube said. "There have been several years when the Tampa Bay Derby winner had not run in the Davis, but we hope the bonus makes both races, as well as our $100,000 Pasco Stakes on Jan. 4 for 3-year-olds, part of a logical progression on the road to Louisville."
The key part of Berube's quote in the above paragraph is "both races", with the emphasis on "both".
See, when Churchill Downs issued its "Road to the Kentucky Derby" series for 2014, it made a few changes from the 2013 road. One race (the Lexington) had its points structure changed. Two races were added to the series: the Iroquois (won by Cleburne last month) and the Jerome. And four races were taken completely off the road: the Royal Lodge; the CashCall Futurity; the Derby Trial; and (here it comes) the Sam F Davis.
So with no Kentucky Derby qualifying points to give to the top finishes of the Sam F Davis, the good people running Tampa Bay Downs decided to keep the contest a relevant part of the Kentucky Derby chase by offering the above referenced million dollar bonus. Which, in my humble opinion, is a terrific marketing move. Since the Sam F Davis is a key prep for the Tampa Bay Derby (which remains a part of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" series) any defections from that event would surely hurt Tampa Bay Downs' main event, the eight and a half furlong Tampa Bay Derby. The million dollar bonus will keep the Sam F Davis / Tampa Bay Derby tandem relevant to the connections of 2014's promising three year olds. And, as history has shown, the probability of any horse sweeping the trio of those two events plus the Kentucky Derby and actually collecting the million dollar bonus is, well, rather unlikely.
So, again, a good showing by the folks in charge of Tampa Bay Downs, and good news for those who enjoy playing that track during the Winter months, as it should help ensure healthy, competitive fields for their top three year old stakes.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tampa Bay Downs is offering a $1 million bonus payout in 2014 to the owner of any horse sweeping the track's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), and Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
The "Tampa Bay Downs Million Dollar Derby Bonus" is in addition to the regular purses for the $250,000 Sam F. Davis, which is Feb. 1, the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby March 8, and the May 3 Kentucky Derby.
Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby for owner WinStar Farm after finishing third in the Tampa Bay Derby, while Street Sense won the 2007 Kentucky Derby for owner James Tafel after capturing the Tampa Bay Derby in record time.
Additionally, the Tampa Bay Derby is part of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, awarding 50 points to the winner, 20 to the runner-up, 10 for third place and 5 for fourth place. Points go toward determining which 20 3-year-olds are eligible for the Kentucky Derby.
Had the "Tampa Bay Downs Million Dollar Derby Bonus" been in effect in 2006, WinStar Farm's Bluegrass Cat would have come close to taking home the prize. After winning the Sam F. Davis, he finished second in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Musket Man, owned by Eric Fein and Vic Carlson, finished third in the Sam F. Davis, won the Tampa Bay Derby and was third in the Kentucky Derby.
Horses that have won both the Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby include Phantom Jet in 1987; Speedy Cure in 1991; Marco Bay in 1993; Thundering Storm in 1996; and Burning Roma in 2001. None of the five competed in the Kentucky Derby.
"The Sam F. Davis and the Tampa Bay Derby both came into being in 1981, so it seems a natural fit to combine them for purposes of the bonus," [general manager Peter] Berube said. "There have been several years when the Tampa Bay Derby winner had not run in the Davis, but we hope the bonus makes both races, as well as our $100,000 Pasco Stakes on Jan. 4 for 3-year-olds, part of a logical progression on the road to Louisville."
The key part of Berube's quote in the above paragraph is "both races", with the emphasis on "both".
See, when Churchill Downs issued its "Road to the Kentucky Derby" series for 2014, it made a few changes from the 2013 road. One race (the Lexington) had its points structure changed. Two races were added to the series: the Iroquois (won by Cleburne last month) and the Jerome. And four races were taken completely off the road: the Royal Lodge; the CashCall Futurity; the Derby Trial; and (here it comes) the Sam F Davis.
So with no Kentucky Derby qualifying points to give to the top finishes of the Sam F Davis, the good people running Tampa Bay Downs decided to keep the contest a relevant part of the Kentucky Derby chase by offering the above referenced million dollar bonus. Which, in my humble opinion, is a terrific marketing move. Since the Sam F Davis is a key prep for the Tampa Bay Derby (which remains a part of the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" series) any defections from that event would surely hurt Tampa Bay Downs' main event, the eight and a half furlong Tampa Bay Derby. The million dollar bonus will keep the Sam F Davis / Tampa Bay Derby tandem relevant to the connections of 2014's promising three year olds. And, as history has shown, the probability of any horse sweeping the trio of those two events plus the Kentucky Derby and actually collecting the million dollar bonus is, well, rather unlikely.
So, again, a good showing by the folks in charge of Tampa Bay Downs, and good news for those who enjoy playing that track during the Winter months, as it should help ensure healthy, competitive fields for their top three year old stakes.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, October 18, 2013
10/18/13 SA R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Paralyzing Eyes, whom we've been following since June 2012, returned to the track Friday in Race 8 at Santa Anita, competing for the first time since achieving her first ever in the money finish,
Making her eighth start with a $20k price tag on her head (and her twelfth start overall), Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 38.70) flashed some early speed, breaking first of the pack from the gate. But it was all downhill for Paralyzing Eyes from there, as she found herself fourth after the first quarter; fifth at the half; seventh entering the stretch; and eighth at the finish, fifteen and a half lengths behind the winner, Magic Maya (7.70).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Making her eighth start with a $20k price tag on her head (and her twelfth start overall), Paralyzing Eyes (Final Odds 38.70) flashed some early speed, breaking first of the pack from the gate. But it was all downhill for Paralyzing Eyes from there, as she found herself fourth after the first quarter; fifth at the half; seventh entering the stretch; and eighth at the finish, fifteen and a half lengths behind the winner, Magic Maya (7.70).
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 13, 2013
10/11/13 FNO R8 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
Catching up on City Chapel, the long shot claim by Victor Trujillo that we've been following:
The four year old gelding competed again Friday, in Race 8 at Fresno, a six furlong sprint. For City Chapel (Final Odds 21.20) this was a bit of a step up on the class ladder, as he was competing in a Starter Allowance; just the second time in his career that City Chapel was running without a price tag on his head.
City Chapel broke slow, and was over nine lengths back at the half and six lengths back entering the stretch. But despite being forced wide, City Chapel was able to surge late and take the Place, just a head behind the winner, One Mo (13.20). City Chapel paid $20.60 for Place and 12.60 for Show, and filled out an Exacta that paid $164.60 for a buck.
For his connections, City Chapel's second place finish was worth $6050.00 in purse money. So since being claimed for $4,000.00, City Chapel has brought back to the Trujillo barn $46,255.00 in purse winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The four year old gelding competed again Friday, in Race 8 at Fresno, a six furlong sprint. For City Chapel (Final Odds 21.20) this was a bit of a step up on the class ladder, as he was competing in a Starter Allowance; just the second time in his career that City Chapel was running without a price tag on his head.
City Chapel broke slow, and was over nine lengths back at the half and six lengths back entering the stretch. But despite being forced wide, City Chapel was able to surge late and take the Place, just a head behind the winner, One Mo (13.20). City Chapel paid $20.60 for Place and 12.60 for Show, and filled out an Exacta that paid $164.60 for a buck.
For his connections, City Chapel's second place finish was worth $6050.00 in purse money. So since being claimed for $4,000.00, City Chapel has brought back to the Trujillo barn $46,255.00 in purse winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, October 12, 2013
10/12/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Well, we said that today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita was a tough nut to crack. Turns out we were dead wrong. All you had to do was play Corey Nakatani across for the win.
Race 7, the initial running of The California Distaff Handicap, saw Nakatani guide # 4 Qiaona (Final Odds 8.80) from last at the half to first at the wire, a half length in front of Place horse # 8 Ismene (3.50); while our lone A in this leg, # 1 Bella Viaggia (0.90*) took the Show. Nakatani took the opposite approach in Race 8, hustling # 10 Door's Open (5.30) to the lead at the half, from whence he slowly pulled away, winning by over five lengths. Incidentally, the always popular # 4 Master Chef (5.60), who finished eighth, was once again claimed, and heads back to the Hollendorfer barn.
Race 9 found Nakatani aboard # 5 Empty Headed (3.00) who picked up his second win this week, coming back from ninth at the first quarter and eighth at the half to win by a length and a quarter over Place horse # 4 Heat Streaker (18.10). Finally, Race 10 saw Nakatani take first time starter # 9 Eddie's Turn (11.10) from ninth at the first quarter and seventh at the half to victory by a half length over # 4 Pray Hard (1.80*).
So as far as our play goes, we broke out of the rut of having a ticket with three Winners and a Place horse. Indeed, not only did we not have a ticket with three Winners on it, we didn't even have a ticket with two Winners on it. I don't know if that's better or worse for the psyche; but I do know that it's all the same for the bottom line, as picking anything fewer than four means you don't get to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who were wise enough to play the all-Corey Nakatani Pick Four of 4 / 10 / 5 / 9 (none of which was a Post Time Favorite) were rewarded with a payout of $4,104.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7, the initial running of The California Distaff Handicap, saw Nakatani guide # 4 Qiaona (Final Odds 8.80) from last at the half to first at the wire, a half length in front of Place horse # 8 Ismene (3.50); while our lone A in this leg, # 1 Bella Viaggia (0.90*) took the Show. Nakatani took the opposite approach in Race 8, hustling # 10 Door's Open (5.30) to the lead at the half, from whence he slowly pulled away, winning by over five lengths. Incidentally, the always popular # 4 Master Chef (5.60), who finished eighth, was once again claimed, and heads back to the Hollendorfer barn.
Race 9 found Nakatani aboard # 5 Empty Headed (3.00) who picked up his second win this week, coming back from ninth at the first quarter and eighth at the half to win by a length and a quarter over Place horse # 4 Heat Streaker (18.10). Finally, Race 10 saw Nakatani take first time starter # 9 Eddie's Turn (11.10) from ninth at the first quarter and seventh at the half to victory by a half length over # 4 Pray Hard (1.80*).
So as far as our play goes, we broke out of the rut of having a ticket with three Winners and a Place horse. Indeed, not only did we not have a ticket with three Winners on it, we didn't even have a ticket with two Winners on it. I don't know if that's better or worse for the psyche; but I do know that it's all the same for the bottom line, as picking anything fewer than four means you don't get to cash.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who were wise enough to play the all-Corey Nakatani Pick Four of 4 / 10 / 5 / 9 (none of which was a Post Time Favorite) were rewarded with a payout of $4,104.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/12/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
No doubt about it, today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita is a tough nut to crack; at least on paper. Wisdom would say to pass today's races; but I like the challenge of the large fields, and the payoff has great potential.
RACE 7 - [S](F) The California Distaff Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Bella Viaggia (Morning Line 5-2) won a similarly conditioned race over this surface a year and a day ago at Final Odds of 9.70. In seven career starts, Bella Viaggia has yet to finish out of the money.
# 2 Dancingtothestars (ML 4-1) won at eight furlongs on the Del Mar grass two back against open company in a $100K Optional Claimer. I’m not sure about her in the top spot, but she’s certainly one to use when filling out your intra-race exotics.
# 6 Tasty Treat (ML 3-1) won a ungraded stakes against open company her last time out. Tasty Treat is a perfect three-for-three with Rafael Bejarano on her back, and should be in the lead when they cross over the dirt and enter the stretch.
# 8 Ismene (ML 3-1) took the Place at this class level her one time charging down the hill (note that Mike Smith was on board that day as well as today) and has the best chance of challenging Tasty Treat on the front end.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Memphis (ML 12-1) just missed at this level at this distance last time out over the fake stuff at Del Mar. Memphis does his best running late, and there should be enough pace in this one for him to chase.
# 4 Master Chef (ML 9-2) has been in the Exacta five of the six times that he’s run on a fast dirt track, and six of the seven times that he’s competed at Santa Anita. Master Chef is a popular gelding, as evidenced by all the times that he’s been claimed; but I’m not sure that he and his current connections are a good fit.
# 5 Exoctic Slew (ML 20-1) finished over fifteen lengths back that last time he competed over this main dirt track. But that was over a year and a half ago, and against much tougher company. I’ll probably leave him off my Pick Four tickets, but he’s one that you want to consider when filling out your vertical wagers.
# 6 Shining Son (ML 20-1) earned an 82 Beyer the last time he competed over this surface, which was also his only career victory. If the pace overheats, Shining Son is one who could be coming late and light up the board.
# 8 Zoom Bag (ML 20-1) makes his first start in nearly a year, after starting his career with two wins over this main dirt track. If he’s ready to roll he can take this bunch; but after a twelve month vacation, that’s a pretty big if.
# 9 Passing Game (ML 10-1) won at this level and distance two back, wiring the field over the Del Mar plastic. Passing Game has finished out of the Exacta all four times that he’s competed over the Santa Anita main track. Trainer Gary Sherlock is zero for his last eleven (and one for his last twentyseven) when sending out a runner in an Allowance race.
# 10 Door’s Open (ML 6-1) is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track, and the 89 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned here back in April is second only to # 4 Master Chef’s 91 for best career Beyer in this field over the Santa Anita main track (and, for that matter, any fast dirt track). Worth noting is that Cory Nakatani will be the rider today; as Mario Gutierrez, who was onboard for all of Door’s Open’s prior starts, will instead be riding # 12 Candy’s Sunrise.
# 12 Candy’s Sunrise (ML 8-1) gets the rider switch today from the apprentice Orozco to Mario Gutierrez. Candy’s Sunrise has two wins on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, and has three Place finishes in his four career starts on grass; but this four year old gelding has finished out of the money in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track.
# 13 Life a Riley (ML 7-2) looked horrible in his one career start at Santa Anita; but that was a year and a day ago, against much tougher company, in the last race of his two year old campaign. Since Life a Riley needed a nine month vacation after that race, it can be presumed that injury was a factor in his performance that day; but since it can’t be completely ruled out that Life a Riley just doesn’t like to compete on dirt tracks, caution is advised.
This race screams out for the “ALL” button; but there’s simply no way to do that and stay within budget. Still, I expect to be going pretty deep in this one.
RACE 9 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Tribe (ML 4-1) finished a length and a half back of the winner at this class level over this turf course back in April. Tribe took a four and half month vacation after that event, and today’s race is his second start back off that rest. Trainer Carla Gaines does quite well with such (.25 Winning Pct.; $2.49 ROI); but Tribe is oh-for-five for his career in turf contests, with only one in-the-money finish.
# 2 Christopher Street (ML 8-1) broke his maiden on this turf course eleven months ago; the only time in his six career starts (all on grass) that Christopher Street has finished in the money. Christopher Street switches barns from Trainer Marty Jones to Trainer John Sadler. Sadler wins approximately 22% of the time his first time with a runner.
# 4 Heat Streaker (ML 8-1) took the Place on the grass against open stakes company two starts back.
# 5 Empty Headed (ML 6-1) broke his maiden Sunday 10/6 (and we had him, but to no avail) and now comes back to take on winners for the first time on less than one week’s rest. Trainer Barry Abrams wins approximately 22% on the time when bringing a runner back on such short notice.
# 8 Turn On the Pumps (ML 5-1) disappointed as the favorite against this class level his last time, finished one length back of the winner. Turn On the Pumps has five Place finishes in his fourteen career starts, with just one Win.
# 9 Brown Boss (ML 9-2) made his turf debut his last time out, winning an eight furlong Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Brown Boss has finished in the Trifecta in six of his seven career starts.
# 11 Volkonsky (ML 6-1) makes his first career start against winners today, having broken his maiden over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course at Del Mar his last time out. Volkonsky gets the services of Jockey Gary Stevens today. Stevens has been doing quite well on the grass since un-retiring; and in a race this competitive, the rider could be all the difference.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 California Jade (ML 7-2) and # 4 Pray Hard (ML 5-2) are the only two experienced starters in this field, and they both took the Place in their respective last out races (California Jade missing by a nose on 9/1, while Pray Hard lost by half a length on 9/2). Had those races taken place on dirt the discussion of this race would end here, as these would be my two A’s, with no others receiving consideration. But both California Jade and Pray Hard competed their last time out on the synthetic surface at Del Mar; so there’s no guarantee that their form will carry over to real dirt.
# 6 Awesome Return (ML 8-1) was sired by Decarchy, whose juvenile progencey win their debuts approximately 17% of the time. Trainer Mike Puype has a .08 Winning Pct with first time starters, with a positive ROI of $2.49.
# 10 Mass Transit (ML 4-1) and # 11 Where’s the Heat (ML 15-1) are a pair on first time starters going for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately 22% of the time with such (ROI $2.09) along with winning 18% of his entries with two year olds.
Certainly not the easiest Pick Four sequence I've handicapped. Again, the smartest thing is probably to just pass; but let's give it a try anyway. All tickets will be of the fifty cents variety.
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 6, 8
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 3, 6, 8, 10, 12
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $10.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 1, 2, 5, 8
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 6, 10, 11
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $55.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - [S](F) The California Distaff Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Bella Viaggia (Morning Line 5-2) won a similarly conditioned race over this surface a year and a day ago at Final Odds of 9.70. In seven career starts, Bella Viaggia has yet to finish out of the money.
# 2 Dancingtothestars (ML 4-1) won at eight furlongs on the Del Mar grass two back against open company in a $100K Optional Claimer. I’m not sure about her in the top spot, but she’s certainly one to use when filling out your intra-race exotics.
# 6 Tasty Treat (ML 3-1) won a ungraded stakes against open company her last time out. Tasty Treat is a perfect three-for-three with Rafael Bejarano on her back, and should be in the lead when they cross over the dirt and enter the stretch.
# 8 Ismene (ML 3-1) took the Place at this class level her one time charging down the hill (note that Mike Smith was on board that day as well as today) and has the best chance of challenging Tasty Treat on the front end.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Memphis (ML 12-1) just missed at this level at this distance last time out over the fake stuff at Del Mar. Memphis does his best running late, and there should be enough pace in this one for him to chase.
# 4 Master Chef (ML 9-2) has been in the Exacta five of the six times that he’s run on a fast dirt track, and six of the seven times that he’s competed at Santa Anita. Master Chef is a popular gelding, as evidenced by all the times that he’s been claimed; but I’m not sure that he and his current connections are a good fit.
# 5 Exoctic Slew (ML 20-1) finished over fifteen lengths back that last time he competed over this main dirt track. But that was over a year and a half ago, and against much tougher company. I’ll probably leave him off my Pick Four tickets, but he’s one that you want to consider when filling out your vertical wagers.
# 6 Shining Son (ML 20-1) earned an 82 Beyer the last time he competed over this surface, which was also his only career victory. If the pace overheats, Shining Son is one who could be coming late and light up the board.
# 8 Zoom Bag (ML 20-1) makes his first start in nearly a year, after starting his career with two wins over this main dirt track. If he’s ready to roll he can take this bunch; but after a twelve month vacation, that’s a pretty big if.
# 9 Passing Game (ML 10-1) won at this level and distance two back, wiring the field over the Del Mar plastic. Passing Game has finished out of the Exacta all four times that he’s competed over the Santa Anita main track. Trainer Gary Sherlock is zero for his last eleven (and one for his last twentyseven) when sending out a runner in an Allowance race.
# 10 Door’s Open (ML 6-1) is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track, and the 89 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned here back in April is second only to # 4 Master Chef’s 91 for best career Beyer in this field over the Santa Anita main track (and, for that matter, any fast dirt track). Worth noting is that Cory Nakatani will be the rider today; as Mario Gutierrez, who was onboard for all of Door’s Open’s prior starts, will instead be riding # 12 Candy’s Sunrise.
# 12 Candy’s Sunrise (ML 8-1) gets the rider switch today from the apprentice Orozco to Mario Gutierrez. Candy’s Sunrise has two wins on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, and has three Place finishes in his four career starts on grass; but this four year old gelding has finished out of the money in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track.
# 13 Life a Riley (ML 7-2) looked horrible in his one career start at Santa Anita; but that was a year and a day ago, against much tougher company, in the last race of his two year old campaign. Since Life a Riley needed a nine month vacation after that race, it can be presumed that injury was a factor in his performance that day; but since it can’t be completely ruled out that Life a Riley just doesn’t like to compete on dirt tracks, caution is advised.
This race screams out for the “ALL” button; but there’s simply no way to do that and stay within budget. Still, I expect to be going pretty deep in this one.
RACE 9 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Tribe (ML 4-1) finished a length and a half back of the winner at this class level over this turf course back in April. Tribe took a four and half month vacation after that event, and today’s race is his second start back off that rest. Trainer Carla Gaines does quite well with such (.25 Winning Pct.; $2.49 ROI); but Tribe is oh-for-five for his career in turf contests, with only one in-the-money finish.
# 2 Christopher Street (ML 8-1) broke his maiden on this turf course eleven months ago; the only time in his six career starts (all on grass) that Christopher Street has finished in the money. Christopher Street switches barns from Trainer Marty Jones to Trainer John Sadler. Sadler wins approximately 22% of the time his first time with a runner.
# 4 Heat Streaker (ML 8-1) took the Place on the grass against open stakes company two starts back.
# 5 Empty Headed (ML 6-1) broke his maiden Sunday 10/6 (and we had him, but to no avail) and now comes back to take on winners for the first time on less than one week’s rest. Trainer Barry Abrams wins approximately 22% on the time when bringing a runner back on such short notice.
# 8 Turn On the Pumps (ML 5-1) disappointed as the favorite against this class level his last time, finished one length back of the winner. Turn On the Pumps has five Place finishes in his fourteen career starts, with just one Win.
# 9 Brown Boss (ML 9-2) made his turf debut his last time out, winning an eight furlong Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Brown Boss has finished in the Trifecta in six of his seven career starts.
# 11 Volkonsky (ML 6-1) makes his first career start against winners today, having broken his maiden over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course at Del Mar his last time out. Volkonsky gets the services of Jockey Gary Stevens today. Stevens has been doing quite well on the grass since un-retiring; and in a race this competitive, the rider could be all the difference.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 California Jade (ML 7-2) and # 4 Pray Hard (ML 5-2) are the only two experienced starters in this field, and they both took the Place in their respective last out races (California Jade missing by a nose on 9/1, while Pray Hard lost by half a length on 9/2). Had those races taken place on dirt the discussion of this race would end here, as these would be my two A’s, with no others receiving consideration. But both California Jade and Pray Hard competed their last time out on the synthetic surface at Del Mar; so there’s no guarantee that their form will carry over to real dirt.
# 6 Awesome Return (ML 8-1) was sired by Decarchy, whose juvenile progencey win their debuts approximately 17% of the time. Trainer Mike Puype has a .08 Winning Pct with first time starters, with a positive ROI of $2.49.
# 10 Mass Transit (ML 4-1) and # 11 Where’s the Heat (ML 15-1) are a pair on first time starters going for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately 22% of the time with such (ROI $2.09) along with winning 18% of his entries with two year olds.
Certainly not the easiest Pick Four sequence I've handicapped. Again, the smartest thing is probably to just pass; but let's give it a try anyway. All tickets will be of the fifty cents variety.
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 6, 8
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 3, 6, 8, 10, 12
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $10.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 1, 2, 5, 8
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 6, 10, 11
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $55.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, October 6, 2013
10/6/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Well, it wasn't by a photo this week; but we again lost our Pick Four play by less than a length.
The suspense ended early Sunday as the initial leg of the Pick Four, Race 6 at Santa Anita, was won by # 7 Firendesire (12.50), whom we did not cover, by three quarters of a length over # 6 Julio's Gold (4.60), whom we did. And that three quarters of a length was the margin of defeat for our Pick Four play, as our single in Race 7 - The Surfer Girl Stakes, # 3 Clenor (Ire) (0.70*) came through for us; followed by # 13 Tookmebysurprise (22.50) in Race 8 and # 10 Empty Headed (2.70*) in the finale, Race 9. So we wound up with three out of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 13 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1618.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
The suspense ended early Sunday as the initial leg of the Pick Four, Race 6 at Santa Anita, was won by # 7 Firendesire (12.50), whom we did not cover, by three quarters of a length over # 6 Julio's Gold (4.60), whom we did. And that three quarters of a length was the margin of defeat for our Pick Four play, as our single in Race 7 - The Surfer Girl Stakes, # 3 Clenor (Ire) (0.70*) came through for us; followed by # 13 Tookmebysurprise (22.50) in Race 8 and # 10 Empty Headed (2.70*) in the finale, Race 9. So we wound up with three out of four winners; which, as you all know, pays absolutely nothing.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct winning Pick Four sequence of 7 / 3 / 13 / 10 were rewarded with a payout of $1618.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
10/6/13 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Had several errands to run Saturday, so I couldn't get involved in any of the stakes action around the country. But now that all (well, almost all) the chores are complete, I can have some fun and take a swing at today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) Claiming $12,500 - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Roveing Patrol (Morning Line 8-1) is two-for-two on a fast dirt track, including a state restricted stakes win as a two year old up at Emerald Downs.
# 2 Hollanita (ML 3-1) is taking a big class drop after a two month layoff. That pretty much screams a horse that isn’t what she used to be. But she’s five-for-nine in her career, has won at this class level (and higher), and can win both on the lead and from well off the pace. If I were playing the Win pool I would avoid her; but she could win this one on class alone, which makes her far too dangerous to leave off the ticket.
# 4 Daddy’s Song (ML 5-2) drops to her lowest price tag since being claimed back in January out of the race in which she broke her maiden.
# 6 Julio’s Gold (ML 6-1) has been posting steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures, which either means that she’s rounding into top form, or really liked the fake dirt surface at Del Mar.
# 8 Acute (ML 4-1) won by over two lengths at this level her last time out. She has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field, and Trainer Mike Mitchell scores well in all the relevant categories.
This one looks tough, primarily because so many are switching surfaces, and three year old fillies are not the most consistent runners on the grounds. It’ll be interesting to see how the public bets this one in the Win Pool.
RACE 7 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
I’m going all in with # 3 Clenor (Ire) (ML 6-5) winner of the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar her last time out. If she runs that race again, she wins handily. As we’re spreading pretty wide in the other three legs of this Pick Four, it just makes sense to single her in our play; especially once you factor in that if Clenor doesn’t run to form there are at least a half dozen others in this field that are just too close to separate (which, incidentally, could make this a good betting race for the intra-race exotics). Clenor is trained by Doug O’Neill and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
RACE 8 - (F) Alw 40000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Whatsallthedrama (ML 3-1) won her debut in a state restricted $50k Maiden Claimer, and then took the Place in a state restricted stakes her next time out. This is her first time against open company, and also her first start on a real dirt track. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer, while Rafael Bejarano will be on board for the ride.
# 5 Larocco (ML 10-1) has yet to run a bad race in her four start career. She just missed at this level her last two times out, and broke her maiden in her debut for $40k against open company.
# 9 One More Wild Ride (ML 5-1) took the Show in the J J’sdream Stakes her last time competing on a fast dirt track. One More Wild Ride has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating of the fillies in this field.
# 11 Susans Express (ML 5-1) makes her second career start after winning her debut in a $50k state restricted Maiden Claimer. Trainer Jorge Periban shows a .22 Winning Pct when bringing his charges back after a victory.
# 13 Tookmebysurprise (ML 10-1) wired the field her last time out in the Fairplex bullring. Tookmebysurprise also flashed early speed on the Del Mar synthetic in her two races prior to that, so she may be quickest of all her when they break from the gate. Trainer Steve Miyadi has a .30 Winning Percentage with those who won their last time out.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Mr Lemon Tree (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out. Bejarano, who was on board for that one, gets the mount again today.
# 7 Brave Act (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out, his second time taking the Place at this class level. Brave Act returns from a two month vacation, but the bullet work on Thursday at six furlongs suggests that he’s ready to roll.
# 9 Thunder Cole (ML 4-1) just missed by a nose up at Golden Gate his last time out.
# 10 Empty Headed (ML 7-2) comes back on less than ten days rest after just missing by a nose at this level on this turf course at this distance. Note the rider change from Gomez to Corey Nakatani.
Another wide open contest, as evidenced by the fact that the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 7-2. Would really like to hit the ALL button in this one; but today’s ticket as is will just barely make it within the budget.
No finessing today; just going all in with Clenor in the stakes, and hoping we covered the right bases in the other three legs.
Play this for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
RACE 7: 3
RACE 8: 3, 5, 9, 11, 13
RACE 9: 1, 7, 9, 10
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is 6:40 PDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Claiming $12,500 - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Roveing Patrol (Morning Line 8-1) is two-for-two on a fast dirt track, including a state restricted stakes win as a two year old up at Emerald Downs.
# 2 Hollanita (ML 3-1) is taking a big class drop after a two month layoff. That pretty much screams a horse that isn’t what she used to be. But she’s five-for-nine in her career, has won at this class level (and higher), and can win both on the lead and from well off the pace. If I were playing the Win pool I would avoid her; but she could win this one on class alone, which makes her far too dangerous to leave off the ticket.
# 4 Daddy’s Song (ML 5-2) drops to her lowest price tag since being claimed back in January out of the race in which she broke her maiden.
# 6 Julio’s Gold (ML 6-1) has been posting steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures, which either means that she’s rounding into top form, or really liked the fake dirt surface at Del Mar.
# 8 Acute (ML 4-1) won by over two lengths at this level her last time out. She has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field, and Trainer Mike Mitchell scores well in all the relevant categories.
This one looks tough, primarily because so many are switching surfaces, and three year old fillies are not the most consistent runners on the grounds. It’ll be interesting to see how the public bets this one in the Win Pool.
RACE 7 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
I’m going all in with # 3 Clenor (Ire) (ML 6-5) winner of the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar her last time out. If she runs that race again, she wins handily. As we’re spreading pretty wide in the other three legs of this Pick Four, it just makes sense to single her in our play; especially once you factor in that if Clenor doesn’t run to form there are at least a half dozen others in this field that are just too close to separate (which, incidentally, could make this a good betting race for the intra-race exotics). Clenor is trained by Doug O’Neill and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
RACE 8 - (F) Alw 40000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Whatsallthedrama (ML 3-1) won her debut in a state restricted $50k Maiden Claimer, and then took the Place in a state restricted stakes her next time out. This is her first time against open company, and also her first start on a real dirt track. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer, while Rafael Bejarano will be on board for the ride.
# 5 Larocco (ML 10-1) has yet to run a bad race in her four start career. She just missed at this level her last two times out, and broke her maiden in her debut for $40k against open company.
# 9 One More Wild Ride (ML 5-1) took the Show in the J J’sdream Stakes her last time competing on a fast dirt track. One More Wild Ride has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating of the fillies in this field.
# 11 Susans Express (ML 5-1) makes her second career start after winning her debut in a $50k state restricted Maiden Claimer. Trainer Jorge Periban shows a .22 Winning Pct when bringing his charges back after a victory.
# 13 Tookmebysurprise (ML 10-1) wired the field her last time out in the Fairplex bullring. Tookmebysurprise also flashed early speed on the Del Mar synthetic in her two races prior to that, so she may be quickest of all her when they break from the gate. Trainer Steve Miyadi has a .30 Winning Percentage with those who won their last time out.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Mr Lemon Tree (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out. Bejarano, who was on board for that one, gets the mount again today.
# 7 Brave Act (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out, his second time taking the Place at this class level. Brave Act returns from a two month vacation, but the bullet work on Thursday at six furlongs suggests that he’s ready to roll.
# 9 Thunder Cole (ML 4-1) just missed by a nose up at Golden Gate his last time out.
# 10 Empty Headed (ML 7-2) comes back on less than ten days rest after just missing by a nose at this level on this turf course at this distance. Note the rider change from Gomez to Corey Nakatani.
Another wide open contest, as evidenced by the fact that the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 7-2. Would really like to hit the ALL button in this one; but today’s ticket as is will just barely make it within the budget.
No finessing today; just going all in with Clenor in the stakes, and hoping we covered the right bases in the other three legs.
Play this for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
RACE 7: 3
RACE 8: 3, 5, 9, 11, 13
RACE 9: 1, 7, 9, 10
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is 6:40 PDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
9/29/13 PRX R4 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
We began following Pete and David back in June when Trainer Bruce Levine claimed him for $20,000 out of this race in which Pete and David went to post at Final Odds of 13.70 and finished seventh. On Saturday, September 29, Levine took Pete and David down the Jersey Turnpike to Philadelphia, where he said goodbye to the three year old gelding.
Pete and David (Final Odds 2.30) broke third in the field of eight, took the lead near the sixteenth pole, and was never headed from there, crossing the wire a length in front of the rest of the field. For his winning effort Pete and David earned $13,800 in purse money. Pete and David also gets a change of scenery, as he was claimed by Trainer J Guadalupe Guerrero for $15,000.
So the tale of Pete and David under the tutelage of conditioner Bruce Levine comes to an end. Pete and David earned $15,110 in purse money in the three races that he ran for Trainer Levine. When that amount is added to the $15,000 sales price collected at the end of Saturday's contest, the total return is $30,110; $10,110 more than the $20k for which he had been claimed. I won't call that figure profit; since, of course, Pete and David had to be housed and fed and medicated and all the other costs that go into caring for a thoroughbred race horse; but the earnings are more than the outlay, which isn't bad for a horse that ran well out of the money at long odds in the race out of which he was claimed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Pete and David (Final Odds 2.30) broke third in the field of eight, took the lead near the sixteenth pole, and was never headed from there, crossing the wire a length in front of the rest of the field. For his winning effort Pete and David earned $13,800 in purse money. Pete and David also gets a change of scenery, as he was claimed by Trainer J Guadalupe Guerrero for $15,000.
So the tale of Pete and David under the tutelage of conditioner Bruce Levine comes to an end. Pete and David earned $15,110 in purse money in the three races that he ran for Trainer Levine. When that amount is added to the $15,000 sales price collected at the end of Saturday's contest, the total return is $30,110; $10,110 more than the $20k for which he had been claimed. I won't call that figure profit; since, of course, Pete and David had to be housed and fed and medicated and all the other costs that go into caring for a thoroughbred race horse; but the earnings are more than the outlay, which isn't bad for a horse that ran well out of the money at long odds in the race out of which he was claimed.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)