RACE 2 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 2 Be Proud (Morning Line 8-5) and # 1 Arethusa (Morning Line 3-1) exit the same September 27 race, where they took the Place and Show, respectively. Arethusa has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field, while Be Proud, despite still being a maiden, is stakes placed. Be Proud is trained by Bob Baffet.
# 4 Salsita (ML 1-1) has the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field, earned her last time out in her second career start, where she lost by just a half length. But that race was just seven furlongs; this will be Salsita’s first time time around two turns, and the fact that she has the lowest Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance does not inspire confidence that she’ll do well stretching out. I’ll still be using her in my play; but I don’t think making her a single in this contest is the right way to go. Indeed; my reluctance to single Salsita here played a large role in my decision to drop my Pick Five play.
# 3 Consecrate (ML 8-1) is the other Baffert in this contest. Consecrate is making her second career start; Baffert wins approximately 28% of the time with such. Consecrate last competed back on August 18; Baffert wins approximately 28% of the time when bringing one of his charges back from a two-three month vacation. Note also that both the Winner and the Place horse in Consecrate’s debut came back to win their next time out. Chantal Sutherland Kruse will be on top of Consecrate today.
RACE 3 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
While Race 2 is for juveniles, Race 3 is for Fillies and Mares, three years old and upward (though, technically, since none of the entrants is older than four, they're all filles).
# 6 The Magic Stone (ML 5-2) and # 3 Tappingintherain (ML 2-1) both exit the same six furlong race over this main track back on September 29, where they took the Place and Show, respectively. Tappingintherain has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field, and gets a rider switch from Mike Smith to Gary Stevens (what year is this again?).
RACE 4 - Alw N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 7 Horizontalyspeakin (ML 3-1) and # 8 Appealing Tale (ML 5-2) both have the distinction of taking the Show behind Tom’s Tribute over this turf course their last time out; Horizontalyspeakin on September 29 in a first level Optional Claimer; and Appealing Tale in the ungraded Uniformity Stakes last week. Speaking of last week, note that Appealing Tale’s trainer (Peter Miller) gets victories from his horses approximately 19% of the time when sending them out with seven or fewer days rest.
# 6 My Samurai Warrior (ML 10-1) could be disadvantaged by the probable pace scenario in this one; as My Samurai Warrior prefers to come from behind, and there doesn’t appear to be a lot of early speed in this one (unless # 5 Swift Eagle (ML 12-1) and # 7 Horizontalyspeakin decide to duel each other into the ground). My Samurai Warrior has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, and Trainer Victor Garcia visits the Winner’s Circle about a quarter of the time that he takes one of his horses from a sprint to a route.
RACE 5 - Alw N2X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Tiz the Truth (ML 9-5) enters this event with the best last out Beyer in the field, earned over this main track at a distance a half-furlong longer than today. Tiz the Truth has been in the Exacta all three times that he’s raced at Santa Anita; perhaps not so coincidentally, those are also the only three times in his career that Tiz the Truth has been in the Exacta. Bob Baffert is the trainer, while Gary Stevens gets the ride.
# 5 Fury Kapcori (ML 5-2) makes just his second start outside of stakes competition since breaking his maiden as a two year old last August. Fury Kapcori has earned steadily increasing Beyers in each of his three races this year. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer, while Rafael Bejarano will be in the saddle.
# 3 Everton (ML 8-1) is the other Baffert in this field. Everton is returning from a three month freshening; note that Baffert has a .28 Winning Percentage with such. Baffert also possesses a .28 Winning Percentage in Allowance Races, as well as a .26 Winning Percentage when going for back-to-back Wins. Everton is just a head away from being a perfect three-for-three for his career, and has been working well over the Santa Anita track for this comeback. Martin Garcia, who was on board for all of Everton’s other career starts, gets the mount again today.
As all of the above three prefer to do their running on the front end, I’m going to cover myself with a couple of closers in this event:
# 4 Tree of Life (ML 12-1), like Fury Kapcori, is making just his second start outside of stakes competition since breaking his maiden as a two year old last year. Tree of Life has been in the Exacta both times that he has competed on a fast dirt track.
The last time # 7 American Blend (ML 6-1) ran an eight furlong race over the main dirt track at Santa Anita he earned a career best Beyer and got his picture taken after the race. American Blend is making his first start since May 17; note that Trainer Carla Gaines wins over twenty percent of the time that she brings a horse back from a vacation of between two-six months. American Blend has been firing bullets in his workouts, and will be donning blinkers today. This horse could be live at a really good price. Victor Espinoza will be on board today.
After playing with various combinations, I decided that my play today will be a little over my usual budget. I believe this is justified by the competitiveness of each leg; we'll know later this afternoon if it it was the correct decision. Both tickets will be of the fifty cent variety.
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 3, 6
RACE 4: 7, 8
RACE 5: 1,5
Cost: $4.00
RACE 2: 1, 2, 3, 4
RACE 3: 3, 6
RACE 4: 6, 7, 8
RACE 5: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Cost: $60.00
TOTAL COST: $64.00
Post Time for Race 2 is 4:30 EDT / 1:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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