10/29/13 Charles Town Race 8 - Preview

Took a look at Tuesday's DRF.com Race of the Day, Race 8 @ Charles Town.  After scanning the Past Performances I pretty much agree with what Dan Illman and Mike Beer have to say in the video: that # 10 Saturday Surprise is a clear standout, and no way she’s going to go to Post at a price as good as the Morning Line Odds of 3-1.  I also think # 9 Lookout Kate (ML 8-1) is probably the second best horse in this field.  In addition, # 1 Shea Ballet (ML 10-1) could be the controlling speed in this event.  Factor in that Shea Ballet does have three Wins (in seven tries) at tonight’s seven furlong distance, and there’s a good chance that, even if she gets passed in the stretch, she can hang on to finish in the money.

Okay; so that’s the analysis.  Here’s how I’ll be playing it:

$10.00 WPS 10 $30.00 
$2.00 WPS 1 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 1, 9, 10 $6.00
$1.00 EX (BOX ) 9, 10 $2.00
$2.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 9 $2.00
$1.00 EX (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4 $2.00 
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 9 / 1, 2, 4, 5 $4.00 
$1.00 TR (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 9 $6.00 
$0.10 SF (BOX ) 1, 4, 9, 10 $2.40 
$0.10 SF (PWHL) 10 / 1, 4, 9 / 1, 4, 5, 9 / ALL $6.30

So we’ve got the lion’s share of our money on the results we most expect to occur, while spreading out enough to give us a little leverage, and also a chance at a really nice payoff.  For example, if they finish 10-9, our $10 across on the 10 pays out; we’ve got $4 on the 10-9 Exacta; and we’ve got an excellent chance of having the Trifecta and the Superfecta.  If they finish 9-10, we’ve got $2 on the Exacta; we still collect on our Place and Show bets on the 10; and we’re still alive in the Superfecta.  If the 1 should wire the field, she should pay enough to Win to cover most of the other bets, and we’ve still got a chance of having the Exacta and the Superfecta.  Finally, if the Morning Line Favorite # 2 Lucky Lady Lawyer should prove that she was much better than we thought and Win, while the 10 finishes out of the money, we get to scratch our heads, shrug our shoulders, and move on to the next race.

Post Time for Race 8 @ Charles Town is 10:25 EDT / 7:25 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo