There's a two day carryover in the Pick Six at Santa Anita today. And while I'm not rich enough to go swimming in that pool, I know that Pick Six carryovers lead to extra money finding its way into the Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - Alw 40000s NW2L - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Field Report (Morning Line 8-5) has developed a clear case of seconditis, having taken the Place in seven of his last eight races. Typically this is a sign of a horse that is good enough to win, but just chooses not to. Maybe they’re afraid to be the lead horse; maybe they just much prefer running side-by-side with their colleagues rather than running ahead of them; but the bottom line is you can lose a lot of money playing these horses in the Win Pool; because they’ll always take a lot of action, and they’ll almost always disappoint. Just look at Field Report’s form: in his nine races since breaking his maiden last September, Field Report has left the gate as the Post Time Favorite seven times without getting his picture taken once.
So I personally would not play Field Report in the Win Pool. But do I feel courageous enough to totally leave him off my Pick Four tickets? Again, he clearly has the talent to defeat this field; note that Field Report has earned a Beyer Speed Figure in the eighties in seven of his last eight races; no other horse in this field has posted a Beyer in the eighties more than twice in that span. So even if he doesn’t want to be the lead horse, Field Report may still cross the wire first anyway against this bunch just by default.
# 3 Cinco de Mario (ML 4-1) was a horse that I thought (when I first saw him as a two year old) would be doing great things in his career. And he still may; after all, Cinco de Mario is still only three years old, and as a gelding, he still has a long career ahead of himself. So it could be that he just hasn’t figured it out yet. Of course, it would also be that I’m just totally wrong about his talent level; time will tell. Anyway, this will be Cinco de Mario’s first time in a turf sprint, and his first time charging down the hill; so if he has any hidden ability, this would be a good time to put it on display.
# 5 Red Man Run (ML 6-1) is one for twenty-two lifetime. Generally, horses with such records are best ignored under these conditions. But Red Man Run won charging down this hill back in March (at 16-1) by over five lengths against non-Claiming maidens; that’s something that’ll catch your eye. Also note his effort two starts back routing on the turf at Golden Gate Fields. The chart of that race says that Red Man Run was able to get the lead in the stretch before fading in the shadow of the wire. Such horses tend to do well when charging down the hill at Santa Anita.
# 7 Life Rule (ML 8-1) is a lightly raced horse making his turf debut for a trainer who wins approximately sixteen percent of the time with such. Note also Trainer Mike Puype’s Winning Pct. of .24 (with a $2.66 ROI) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Life Rule also has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating in the field. He may not get enough pace to chase against this bunch; but, on the other hand, if he discovers that he likes himself some California grass, he may not need it.
RACE 7 - Clm $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
There appears to be a ton of early speed in this one; so I am therefore taking a stand against the pure front runners here.
# 9 Summer Exclusive (ML 5-2) gets some class relief today, competing for the first time in his career with a price tag on his head. He’s a stakes winner (albeit on the grass) and broke his maiden over this track back in March. More importantly from my viewpoint is that Summer Exclusive has shown the ability to win by coming off the pace; that’s the ability I’m look for him to display again today.
# 8 Full Consent (ML 6-1) is making just his second career start, having won his debut at the Fairgrounds bullring last month. Trainer Jeff Mullins has a Winning Pct. of .23 when playing the Claiming game, with an ROI of $2.16.
# 5 Too Fast to Pass (ML 15-1) was able to win over the plastic at Del Mar three starts back by going from fourth to first in the stretch. His next time out Too Fast to Pass took the Show at this class level, so he can compete in this company. Too Fast to Pass also has the most victories over a Fast dirt track in this field. Peter Miller is the trainer, with Victor Espinoza on board for the ride.
EDIT - Too Fast to Pass has been scratched from today’s race.
Taking a stand against front runners on a Fast dirt track is a strategy that can easily blow up in your face; after all, jockeys read the Past Performances too, and the good ones adjust accordingly. But horses aren’t the quick learners that you would sometimes hope that they would be; and trying to get one to rate that doesn’t want to often justs leads to a tug of war that wears out both horse and rider well before the finish line. So that’s the stand that I’m taking in this one; we’ll know later this afternoon if it was the right one.
RACE 8 - [R] The California Flag Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 4 Atta Boy Pete (ML 5-1) could be the quickest of the bunch here, and could steal this one on the front end. Atta Boy Pete won his turf debut his last time out by wiring the field at Del Mar in August. The back-to-back bullet works on 10/9 and 10/15 suggests that Atta Boy Pete is ready to run. Look for him to break fast and hope he holds on.
# 7 Ain’t No Other (ML 7-2) won a state-restricted stakes race charging down the hill back in February, and added another stakes victory to his resume in August over the Fresno turf. Jerry Hollendorfer is the Trainer, while Rafael Bejarano, who was on board for that February win, gets the ride.
# 9 Strong Wind (ML 3-1) misses by two necks of coming into this event three for his last three, all against open company. Strong Wind will be making his debut on the downhill turf; but he’s finished in the Exacta in all three of his starts on flat grass courses. Strong Wind has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field. Gary Stevens will be the rider today.
RACE 9 - [S](F) Md $50k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
# 7 Papa’s Flashy Girl (ML 5-1) is the only horse in this field to have ever competed at a distance greater than six furlongs. # 8 Inherit the Throne (ML 20-1) has the best Tomlinson Distance Rating for the field, albeit a provisional one. # 9 She’s Flush (ML 7-2) took the Place at this class level last time out.
So we a have a contest for maiden two year old state bred fillies where all but one will be routing for the first time in their career. This is pretty much the definition of a chaos race. I can’t imagine any serious Pick Four play that doesn’t involve using every single horse in the field, especially since there’s no way to know how the betting will go. I expect to be buying this race.
Post Time for Race 6, the first leg of the Late Pick Four, is scheduled for 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. I expect to have my Pick Four Tickets posted here at least a half hour prior to that.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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