Had several errands to run Saturday, so I couldn't get involved in any of the stakes action around the country. But now that all (well, almost all) the chores are complete, I can have some fun and take a swing at today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) Claiming $12,500 - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Roveing Patrol (Morning Line 8-1) is two-for-two on a fast dirt track, including a state restricted stakes win as a two year old up at Emerald Downs.
# 2 Hollanita (ML 3-1) is taking a big class drop after a two month layoff. That pretty much screams a horse that isn’t what she used to be. But she’s five-for-nine in her career, has won at this class level (and higher), and can win both on the lead and from well off the pace. If I were playing the Win pool I would avoid her; but she could win this one on class alone, which makes her far too dangerous to leave off the ticket.
# 4 Daddy’s Song (ML 5-2) drops to her lowest price tag since being claimed back in January out of the race in which she broke her maiden.
# 6 Julio’s Gold (ML 6-1) has been posting steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures, which either means that she’s rounding into top form, or really liked the fake dirt surface at Del Mar.
# 8 Acute (ML 4-1) won by over two lengths at this level her last time out. She has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance in this field, and Trainer Mike Mitchell scores well in all the relevant categories.
This one looks tough, primarily because so many are switching surfaces, and three year old fillies are not the most consistent runners on the grounds. It’ll be interesting to see how the public bets this one in the Win Pool.
RACE 7 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
I’m going all in with # 3 Clenor (Ire) (ML 6-5) winner of the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar her last time out. If she runs that race again, she wins handily. As we’re spreading pretty wide in the other three legs of this Pick Four, it just makes sense to single her in our play; especially once you factor in that if Clenor doesn’t run to form there are at least a half dozen others in this field that are just too close to separate (which, incidentally, could make this a good betting race for the intra-race exotics). Clenor is trained by Doug O’Neill and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
RACE 8 - (F) Alw 40000s - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 Whatsallthedrama (ML 3-1) won her debut in a state restricted $50k Maiden Claimer, and then took the Place in a state restricted stakes her next time out. This is her first time against open company, and also her first start on a real dirt track. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer, while Rafael Bejarano will be on board for the ride.
# 5 Larocco (ML 10-1) has yet to run a bad race in her four start career. She just missed at this level her last two times out, and broke her maiden in her debut for $40k against open company.
# 9 One More Wild Ride (ML 5-1) took the Show in the J J’sdream Stakes her last time competing on a fast dirt track. One More Wild Ride has the best Distance Tomlinson Rating of the fillies in this field.
# 11 Susans Express (ML 5-1) makes her second career start after winning her debut in a $50k state restricted Maiden Claimer. Trainer Jorge Periban shows a .22 Winning Pct when bringing his charges back after a victory.
# 13 Tookmebysurprise (ML 10-1) wired the field her last time out in the Fairplex bullring. Tookmebysurprise also flashed early speed on the Del Mar synthetic in her two races prior to that, so she may be quickest of all her when they break from the gate. Trainer Steve Miyadi has a .30 Winning Percentage with those who won their last time out.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Mr Lemon Tree (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out. Bejarano, who was on board for that one, gets the mount again today.
# 7 Brave Act (ML 4-1) took the Place at this level at Del Mar his last time out, his second time taking the Place at this class level. Brave Act returns from a two month vacation, but the bullet work on Thursday at six furlongs suggests that he’s ready to roll.
# 9 Thunder Cole (ML 4-1) just missed by a nose up at Golden Gate his last time out.
# 10 Empty Headed (ML 7-2) comes back on less than ten days rest after just missing by a nose at this level on this turf course at this distance. Note the rider change from Gomez to Corey Nakatani.
Another wide open contest, as evidenced by the fact that the Morning Line Favorite is listed at 7-2. Would really like to hit the ALL button in this one; but today’s ticket as is will just barely make it within the budget.
No finessing today; just going all in with Clenor in the stakes, and hoping we covered the right bases in the other three legs.
Play this for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
RACE 7: 3
RACE 8: 3, 5, 9, 11, 13
RACE 9: 1, 7, 9, 10
TOTAL COST: $50.00
Post Time for Race 6 at Santa Anita is 6:40 PDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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