No doubt about it, today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita is a tough nut to crack; at least on paper. Wisdom would say to pass today's races; but I like the challenge of the large fields, and the payoff has great potential.
RACE 7 - [S](F) The California Distaff Handicap $100k - Six and a half Furlongs Downhill Turf
# 1 Bella Viaggia (Morning Line 5-2) won a similarly conditioned race over this surface a year and a day ago at Final Odds of 9.70. In seven career starts, Bella Viaggia has yet to finish out of the money.
# 2 Dancingtothestars (ML 4-1) won at eight furlongs on the Del Mar grass two back against open company in a $100K Optional Claimer. I’m not sure about her in the top spot, but she’s certainly one to use when filling out your intra-race exotics.
# 6 Tasty Treat (ML 3-1) won a ungraded stakes against open company her last time out. Tasty Treat is a perfect three-for-three with Rafael Bejarano on her back, and should be in the lead when they cross over the dirt and enter the stretch.
# 8 Ismene (ML 3-1) took the Place at this class level her one time charging down the hill (note that Mike Smith was on board that day as well as today) and has the best chance of challenging Tasty Treat on the front end.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 1 Memphis (ML 12-1) just missed at this level at this distance last time out over the fake stuff at Del Mar. Memphis does his best running late, and there should be enough pace in this one for him to chase.
# 4 Master Chef (ML 9-2) has been in the Exacta five of the six times that he’s run on a fast dirt track, and six of the seven times that he’s competed at Santa Anita. Master Chef is a popular gelding, as evidenced by all the times that he’s been claimed; but I’m not sure that he and his current connections are a good fit.
# 5 Exoctic Slew (ML 20-1) finished over fifteen lengths back that last time he competed over this main dirt track. But that was over a year and a half ago, and against much tougher company. I’ll probably leave him off my Pick Four tickets, but he’s one that you want to consider when filling out your vertical wagers.
# 6 Shining Son (ML 20-1) earned an 82 Beyer the last time he competed over this surface, which was also his only career victory. If the pace overheats, Shining Son is one who could be coming late and light up the board.
# 8 Zoom Bag (ML 20-1) makes his first start in nearly a year, after starting his career with two wins over this main dirt track. If he’s ready to roll he can take this bunch; but after a twelve month vacation, that’s a pretty big if.
# 9 Passing Game (ML 10-1) won at this level and distance two back, wiring the field over the Del Mar plastic. Passing Game has finished out of the Exacta all four times that he’s competed over the Santa Anita main track. Trainer Gary Sherlock is zero for his last eleven (and one for his last twentyseven) when sending out a runner in an Allowance race.
# 10 Door’s Open (ML 6-1) is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track, and the 89 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned here back in April is second only to # 4 Master Chef’s 91 for best career Beyer in this field over the Santa Anita main track (and, for that matter, any fast dirt track). Worth noting is that Cory Nakatani will be the rider today; as Mario Gutierrez, who was onboard for all of Door’s Open’s prior starts, will instead be riding # 12 Candy’s Sunrise.
# 12 Candy’s Sunrise (ML 8-1) gets the rider switch today from the apprentice Orozco to Mario Gutierrez. Candy’s Sunrise has two wins on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, and has three Place finishes in his four career starts on grass; but this four year old gelding has finished out of the money in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track.
# 13 Life a Riley (ML 7-2) looked horrible in his one career start at Santa Anita; but that was a year and a day ago, against much tougher company, in the last race of his two year old campaign. Since Life a Riley needed a nine month vacation after that race, it can be presumed that injury was a factor in his performance that day; but since it can’t be completely ruled out that Life a Riley just doesn’t like to compete on dirt tracks, caution is advised.
This race screams out for the “ALL” button; but there’s simply no way to do that and stay within budget. Still, I expect to be going pretty deep in this one.
RACE 9 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
# 1 Tribe (ML 4-1) finished a length and a half back of the winner at this class level over this turf course back in April. Tribe took a four and half month vacation after that event, and today’s race is his second start back off that rest. Trainer Carla Gaines does quite well with such (.25 Winning Pct.; $2.49 ROI); but Tribe is oh-for-five for his career in turf contests, with only one in-the-money finish.
# 2 Christopher Street (ML 8-1) broke his maiden on this turf course eleven months ago; the only time in his six career starts (all on grass) that Christopher Street has finished in the money. Christopher Street switches barns from Trainer Marty Jones to Trainer John Sadler. Sadler wins approximately 22% of the time his first time with a runner.
# 4 Heat Streaker (ML 8-1) took the Place on the grass against open stakes company two starts back.
# 5 Empty Headed (ML 6-1) broke his maiden Sunday 10/6 (and we had him, but to no avail) and now comes back to take on winners for the first time on less than one week’s rest. Trainer Barry Abrams wins approximately 22% on the time when bringing a runner back on such short notice.
# 8 Turn On the Pumps (ML 5-1) disappointed as the favorite against this class level his last time, finished one length back of the winner. Turn On the Pumps has five Place finishes in his fourteen career starts, with just one Win.
# 9 Brown Boss (ML 9-2) made his turf debut his last time out, winning an eight furlong Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Brown Boss has finished in the Trifecta in six of his seven career starts.
# 11 Volkonsky (ML 6-1) makes his first career start against winners today, having broken his maiden over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course at Del Mar his last time out. Volkonsky gets the services of Jockey Gary Stevens today. Stevens has been doing quite well on the grass since un-retiring; and in a race this competitive, the rider could be all the difference.
RACE 10 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
# 3 California Jade (ML 7-2) and # 4 Pray Hard (ML 5-2) are the only two experienced starters in this field, and they both took the Place in their respective last out races (California Jade missing by a nose on 9/1, while Pray Hard lost by half a length on 9/2). Had those races taken place on dirt the discussion of this race would end here, as these would be my two A’s, with no others receiving consideration. But both California Jade and Pray Hard competed their last time out on the synthetic surface at Del Mar; so there’s no guarantee that their form will carry over to real dirt.
# 6 Awesome Return (ML 8-1) was sired by Decarchy, whose juvenile progencey win their debuts approximately 17% of the time. Trainer Mike Puype has a .08 Winning Pct with first time starters, with a positive ROI of $2.49.
# 10 Mass Transit (ML 4-1) and # 11 Where’s the Heat (ML 15-1) are a pair on first time starters going for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately 22% of the time with such (ROI $2.09) along with winning 18% of his entries with two year olds.
Certainly not the easiest Pick Four sequence I've handicapped. Again, the smartest thing is probably to just pass; but let's give it a try anyway. All tickets will be of the fifty cents variety.
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $6.00
RACE 7: 2, 6, 8
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $18.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 3, 6, 8, 10, 12
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $10.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 1, 2, 5, 8
RACE 10: 3, 4
Cost: $12.00
RACE 7: 1
RACE 8: 4, 9, 13
RACE 9: 9, 11
RACE 10: 6, 10, 11
Cost: $9.00
TOTAL COST: $55.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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