Race 6 - The King Pellinore - # 5 Texas Ryano (Final Odds 2.80) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 10 All Run (15.30) - No Selection
Race 8 - The City of Hope Mile - # 9 Alert Bay (4.40) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 4 Sugar Buzz (1.50) - "A" Selection
Entering today's contest, Texas Ryano had not had a bad race this year, finishing in the Trifecta each of the four times that he had exited the starting gate; so using him on our tickets was not a tough decision. But it had taken Texas Ryano four tries in order to finally win at the OC N2X level; and in his only prior stakes try Texas Ryano had finished eighth. Hindsight being 20/20, perhaps we should have thought more highly of Texas Ryano's chances, giving greater weight to the Beyer Speed Figure that he had earned in his last start prior to today; certainly something to consider the next time a runner of this caliber should cross our paths.
Anyway, in the end it made no difference where or even if we had Texas Ryano on our tickets, as we had no part of the winner of the second leg, All Run. And, quite frankly, even in retrospect it's hard to make a convincing case for All Run. While All Run had some nice workouts leading into this contest, others such as # 8 Guns Loaded (6.00) and # 9 Look Twice (11.00) did also. In addition, All Run's career best Beyer Speed Figure prior to today ranked last among the ten entrants that made it into the starting gate. So maybe All Run just handled the heat better than the other runners in this contest. Ultimately, this is just one of those results that makes you shrug your shoulders and say,
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 10 / 9 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $593.25 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 27, 2015
9/27/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Day Two of Opening Weekend in Arcadia, and it's looking to be another hot one; so if you're going to be trackside, make sure that you find yourself a spot in the shade. There're two turf stakes on the card: the featured Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, as well as the inaugural running of The King Pellinore. We'll be looking at each of them, as we take another run at the Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - The King Pellinore $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Kulik Lodge (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 2 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 5 Texas Ryano (ML 9-2)
# 6 Class Leader (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bird E House (No Line) and # 13 Mr T Bird (NL) are program scratches. Also scratch # 1 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 5-2) and # 11 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 30-1).
Kulik Lodge has been showing steady improvement in each of his races this year. There's not much in the way of early speed here, so Kulik Lodge could have things all his own way in the initial stages of this contest. This will be Kulik Lodge's first try beyond nine furlongs, but as a son of Curlin he should hold his form just fine.
Danas Best (Aus) and Abbey Vale (Ire) are both trained by Phil D'Amato. Abbey Vale took the Show in the Grade 3 Last Tycoon last time out, while Danas Best is the only entrant in this field to have won at today's distance.
Texas Ryano looked strong winning at the OC 62k/N2X level last time out despite being squeezed at the start. Class Leader, trained by John Sadler, is trying the grass for the first time; but he has worked well on the turf, and his pedigree suggests that he should handle it just fine.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Skelton Pass (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Sir Samson (ML 5-1)
# 8 Guns Loaded (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Distinctive B (ML 8-1)
# 5 Vegas Strip (ML 20-1)
# 11 Gangnam Guy (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Skelton Pass won by the length of the stretch last time out in his second career start, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Sir Samson took the Show in the Grade 2 San Vincente two starts back. Sir Samson is returning from an six month absence, but his recent works at Los Al suggest that he's ready to go.
Guns Loaded drops in class after not showing much in his return to California last time out. Guns Loaded has a couple of wins at the N2X level earlier this year in the Eastern and Central Time Zones.
Distinctive B showed good heart in his first try at this level last time out. Vegas Strip, trained by Bob Baffert, is making the first start of his four year old campaign, and has been training well at Los Al.
RACE 8 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Talco (Fr) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Avanzare (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Alert Bay (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Avanzare and Talco (Fr) were one-two last time out in The Del Mar Mile Handicap, and there's no reason to think that can't happen again, except possibly with the order reversed. Alert Bay ships in from upstate after winning The Rolling Green with an effort that suggests that he could win here.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sugar Buzz (ML 2-1)
# 6 Afleet Domination (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Palamon (ML 9-2)
C's
# 8 Nusret (ML 6-1)
Sugar Buzz goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill. Afleet Domination runs for the first time with a price tag on his head. Palamon took the Show at this level last time out. Nusret has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts; but he did show good early speed last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,9,12 with 3,4,8 with 6,7,9 with 4,6,7 $40.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 4 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,5 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 6,7 with 8 $1.00
Total: $53.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - The King Pellinore $75k - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Kulik Lodge (Morning Line 4-1)
B's
# 2 Danas Best (Aus) (ML 6-1)
# 12 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 5 Texas Ryano (ML 9-2)
# 6 Class Leader (ML 12-1)
# 7 Bird E House (No Line) and # 13 Mr T Bird (NL) are program scratches. Also scratch # 1 Ashleyluvssugar (ML 5-2) and # 11 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 30-1).
Kulik Lodge has been showing steady improvement in each of his races this year. There's not much in the way of early speed here, so Kulik Lodge could have things all his own way in the initial stages of this contest. This will be Kulik Lodge's first try beyond nine furlongs, but as a son of Curlin he should hold his form just fine.
Danas Best (Aus) and Abbey Vale (Ire) are both trained by Phil D'Amato. Abbey Vale took the Show in the Grade 3 Last Tycoon last time out, while Danas Best is the only entrant in this field to have won at today's distance.
Texas Ryano looked strong winning at the OC 62k/N2X level last time out despite being squeezed at the start. Class Leader, trained by John Sadler, is trying the grass for the first time; but he has worked well on the turf, and his pedigree suggests that he should handle it just fine.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Skelton Pass (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 3 Sir Samson (ML 5-1)
# 8 Guns Loaded (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Distinctive B (ML 8-1)
# 5 Vegas Strip (ML 20-1)
# 11 Gangnam Guy (ML 8-1) has been scratched.
Skelton Pass won by the length of the stretch last time out in his second career start, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Sir Samson took the Show in the Grade 2 San Vincente two starts back. Sir Samson is returning from an six month absence, but his recent works at Los Al suggest that he's ready to go.
Guns Loaded drops in class after not showing much in his return to California last time out. Guns Loaded has a couple of wins at the N2X level earlier this year in the Eastern and Central Time Zones.
Distinctive B showed good heart in his first try at this level last time out. Vegas Strip, trained by Bob Baffert, is making the first start of his four year old campaign, and has been training well at Los Al.
RACE 8 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Talco (Fr) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Avanzare (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Alert Bay (ML 4-1)
C's
None
Avanzare and Talco (Fr) were one-two last time out in The Del Mar Mile Handicap, and there's no reason to think that can't happen again, except possibly with the order reversed. Alert Bay ships in from upstate after winning The Rolling Green with an effort that suggests that he could win here.
RACE 9 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sugar Buzz (ML 2-1)
# 6 Afleet Domination (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Palamon (ML 9-2)
C's
# 8 Nusret (ML 6-1)
Sugar Buzz goes first off the claim for Trainer Doug O'Neill. Afleet Domination runs for the first time with a price tag on his head. Palamon took the Show at this level last time out. Nusret has failed as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts; but he did show good early speed last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 4 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 2,9,12 with 3,4,8 with 6,7,9 with 4,6,7 $40.50
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 4 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2,5 with 6,7 with 4,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 9 with 4 with 6,7 with 8 $1.00
Total: $53.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:40 EDT / 3:40 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 26, 2015
9/26/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - The Chandelier - # 5 Songbird (Final Odds 0.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Rodeo Drive - # 3 Photo Call (Ire) (8.70) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Awesome Again - # 7 Smooth Roller (5.50) - No Selection
Race 11 - # 2 Lucky Bryan (12.70) - "B" Selection
Fun Fact: Race 7, The Zenyatta, was unsurprisingly won by # 9 Beholder (0.10*). The Race 7 - Race 8 Double of Beholder / Songbird paid $2.20 for a two dollar wager. So if you bet the Beholder / Songbird Double, you got back the same amount of money you would have received for just betting Beholder to Win; and you got back less than you would have received for just betting Songbird to Win.
Not So Fun Facts: When analyzing The Awesome Again, we correctly assessed that # 8 Bayern (1.20*) would be able to get a clear early lead, as Smooth Roller, the only other front runner in the field, would not be able to keep up with Bayern in the initial stages. However, we also said that we would not be using any of the runners coming out of the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes on our tickets, as we believed that none were classy enough to compete with those exiting the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.
Well, we were proven wrong on that point; very wrong, in fact, as Smooth Roller caught and then passed Bayern entering the stretch, and that was all she wrote; as Smooth Roller went on to win by almost a half dozen lengths, with our two "A" Selections, # 5 Hoppertunity (2.90) and Bayern having to settle for the Place and Show, respectively.
And, of course, all that was moot anyway, since we had been knocked out in the previous leg of the sequence, backing as we did the wrong shipper from the East; as the Graham Motion trained Photo Call (Ire) came on in the final sixteenth to win by over two lengths, while our "A" Selection, the Christophe Clement trained # 8 Hard Not to Like (1.70*) crossed the wire eighth in the field of ten.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 3 / 7 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $927.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Rodeo Drive - # 3 Photo Call (Ire) (8.70) - No Selection
Race 10 - The Awesome Again - # 7 Smooth Roller (5.50) - No Selection
Race 11 - # 2 Lucky Bryan (12.70) - "B" Selection
Fun Fact: Race 7, The Zenyatta, was unsurprisingly won by # 9 Beholder (0.10*). The Race 7 - Race 8 Double of Beholder / Songbird paid $2.20 for a two dollar wager. So if you bet the Beholder / Songbird Double, you got back the same amount of money you would have received for just betting Beholder to Win; and you got back less than you would have received for just betting Songbird to Win.
Not So Fun Facts: When analyzing The Awesome Again, we correctly assessed that # 8 Bayern (1.20*) would be able to get a clear early lead, as Smooth Roller, the only other front runner in the field, would not be able to keep up with Bayern in the initial stages. However, we also said that we would not be using any of the runners coming out of the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes on our tickets, as we believed that none were classy enough to compete with those exiting the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.
Well, we were proven wrong on that point; very wrong, in fact, as Smooth Roller caught and then passed Bayern entering the stretch, and that was all she wrote; as Smooth Roller went on to win by almost a half dozen lengths, with our two "A" Selections, # 5 Hoppertunity (2.90) and Bayern having to settle for the Place and Show, respectively.
And, of course, all that was moot anyway, since we had been knocked out in the previous leg of the sequence, backing as we did the wrong shipper from the East; as the Graham Motion trained Photo Call (Ire) came on in the final sixteenth to win by over two lengths, while our "A" Selection, the Christophe Clement trained # 8 Hard Not to Like (1.70*) crossed the wire eighth in the field of ten.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 3 / 7 / 2 were rewarded with a payout of $927.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/26/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Opening Day at Santa Anita, and they're doing it in style, with five Grade 1 contests scheduled. Three of those events fall into the latter portion of the card, so we'll be taking a look at them as we take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 8 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Songbird (Morning Line 3-5)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Land Over Sea (ML 9-2)
# 1 Pretty N Cool (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Songbird, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is two-for-two for her career, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. The Beyer Speed Figures that Songbird has earned in each of her two career starts are better than anything that any other filly in this field has ever earned in their career. In the unlikely event that Songbird doesn't fire today, then Land Over Sea, who took the Show behind her in the Del Mar Debutante, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hard Not to Like (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Sharla Rae (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fanticola (ML 5-1)
C's
None
# 5 Three Hearts (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Hard Not to Like, winner of five of her last six, three of which were Grade 1 events, is the clear class of this field. The only concern is that there may not be enough pace for her to chase, as Hard Not to Like prefers to show up at wire at the last possible moment (note that only one of those five previously mentioned victories was by a margin of greater than a length).
Sharla Rae tries older horses for the first time; but if she can repeat her effort in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, then she'll be a force to be reckoned with here. Fanticola is the lone speed here, so look for Jockey Joe Talamo to try to steal this one on the front end.
RACE 10 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Hoppertunity (ML 3-1)
# 8 Bayern (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Hard Aces (ML 4-1)
# 2 Sammy Mandeville (ML 10-1)
# 6 Imperative (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Hoppertunity has been Mister Consistent, earning Beyer Speed Figures within two points of each other over his past four races. Hoppertunity has been good of late but not quite good enough; perhaps that changes today.
If Bayern is ever going to win another Grade 1 contest, then this is it. Bayern should be able to get clear early in this field, as the only other entrant that has shown good early speed in his career is # 7 Smooth Roller (ML 6-1). But even with Tyler Baze on his back, I don't think that Smooth Roller is going to be quick enough to keep pace with Bayern in the early stages of this contest.
Hard Aces will be looking to return to the form that he showed two starts back when he won the Grade 1 Gold Cup over this main track. Sammy Mandeville may be outclassed here; but the Beyers that he's been earning fit well with the contenders here, and he's almost certain to go off at high odds. Imperative could improve going second off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas.
I haven't used any of the three runners coming out of the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes, including the winner of that contest, # 3 Point Piper (ML 8-1). While the Beyer Speed Figure for that event fits well here, in my opinion this company is just too classy for those exiting that contest. To back up my stance, consider that the opening mile for the ten furlong Grade 1 Pacific Classic, in which several of these entrants competed, was run in faster time than the entirety of the eight furlong H. F. Brubaker. So if I'm wrong and one of the three horses exiting the H. F. Brubaker should win today, then this ticket is going down in flames.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Recalibrating (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Lucky Bryan (ML 12-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 20-1)
# 8 Osceola Pond (ML 9-2)
# 9 Canada (ML 7-2)
# 10 Pacific Prince (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 William Crotty (ML 20-1)
Neither Also Eligible, # 13 Aztec Warrior (ML 6-1) nor # 14 Dressed in Hermes, draw in; so they'll be in the barn watching to see if the Mets and/or Dodgers can clinch today.
As you can tell by the number of runners that we're using, I think this one is pretty wide open.
Recalibrating took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back. Strong Values showed late interest in his debut last time out, and may benefit from the change in rider.
Lucky Bryan may improve with the stretch out and surface switch. Unapologetic had a sharp work over the main track earlier this week. Osceola Pond took the Place on the grass at this level two starts back.
Canada is by Giant's Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, so I expect him to improve upon his debut turf effort. Pacific Prince showed good early speed in his debut last time out. William Crotty is by Uncle Mo, whose progeny have done well the first time that they've tried the grass (albeit in a small size sample).
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8,9,11 with 1,2,5,6,8 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $52.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $2.00
Total: $59.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Songbird (Morning Line 3-5)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Land Over Sea (ML 9-2)
# 1 Pretty N Cool (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Songbird, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is two-for-two for her career, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. The Beyer Speed Figures that Songbird has earned in each of her two career starts are better than anything that any other filly in this field has ever earned in their career. In the unlikely event that Songbird doesn't fire today, then Land Over Sea, who took the Show behind her in the Del Mar Debutante, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hard Not to Like (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Sharla Rae (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fanticola (ML 5-1)
C's
None
# 5 Three Hearts (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Hard Not to Like, winner of five of her last six, three of which were Grade 1 events, is the clear class of this field. The only concern is that there may not be enough pace for her to chase, as Hard Not to Like prefers to show up at wire at the last possible moment (note that only one of those five previously mentioned victories was by a margin of greater than a length).
Sharla Rae tries older horses for the first time; but if she can repeat her effort in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, then she'll be a force to be reckoned with here. Fanticola is the lone speed here, so look for Jockey Joe Talamo to try to steal this one on the front end.
RACE 10 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Hoppertunity (ML 3-1)
# 8 Bayern (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Hard Aces (ML 4-1)
# 2 Sammy Mandeville (ML 10-1)
# 6 Imperative (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Hoppertunity has been Mister Consistent, earning Beyer Speed Figures within two points of each other over his past four races. Hoppertunity has been good of late but not quite good enough; perhaps that changes today.
If Bayern is ever going to win another Grade 1 contest, then this is it. Bayern should be able to get clear early in this field, as the only other entrant that has shown good early speed in his career is # 7 Smooth Roller (ML 6-1). But even with Tyler Baze on his back, I don't think that Smooth Roller is going to be quick enough to keep pace with Bayern in the early stages of this contest.
Hard Aces will be looking to return to the form that he showed two starts back when he won the Grade 1 Gold Cup over this main track. Sammy Mandeville may be outclassed here; but the Beyers that he's been earning fit well with the contenders here, and he's almost certain to go off at high odds. Imperative could improve going second off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas.
I haven't used any of the three runners coming out of the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes, including the winner of that contest, # 3 Point Piper (ML 8-1). While the Beyer Speed Figure for that event fits well here, in my opinion this company is just too classy for those exiting that contest. To back up my stance, consider that the opening mile for the ten furlong Grade 1 Pacific Classic, in which several of these entrants competed, was run in faster time than the entirety of the eight furlong H. F. Brubaker. So if I'm wrong and one of the three horses exiting the H. F. Brubaker should win today, then this ticket is going down in flames.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Recalibrating (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Lucky Bryan (ML 12-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 20-1)
# 8 Osceola Pond (ML 9-2)
# 9 Canada (ML 7-2)
# 10 Pacific Prince (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 William Crotty (ML 20-1)
Neither Also Eligible, # 13 Aztec Warrior (ML 6-1) nor # 14 Dressed in Hermes, draw in; so they'll be in the barn watching to see if the Mets and/or Dodgers can clinch today.
As you can tell by the number of runners that we're using, I think this one is pretty wide open.
Recalibrating took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back. Strong Values showed late interest in his debut last time out, and may benefit from the change in rider.
Lucky Bryan may improve with the stretch out and surface switch. Unapologetic had a sharp work over the main track earlier this week. Osceola Pond took the Place on the grass at this level two starts back.
Canada is by Giant's Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, so I expect him to improve upon his debut turf effort. Pacific Prince showed good early speed in his debut last time out. William Crotty is by Uncle Mo, whose progeny have done well the first time that they've tried the grass (albeit in a small size sample).
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8,9,11 with 1,2,5,6,8 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $52.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 5,8 with 4 $1.00
Total: $59.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 20, 2015
9/20/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 2 Perfect Set (Final Odds 1.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 3 Winning Vision (3.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Juvenile - # 4 Toews On Ice (9.70) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Wild (8.00) - No Selection
We began oh so well, as we got "A" Selections home in each of the first two legs; and non-Favorites to boot! But we had absolutely no part of either winner in the second half of the sequence, as "A" Selection # 2 Annie's Candy (2.60) was a very distant second in The Barretts Juvenile, while none of the four runners that we covered in the finale were even able to make it into the Superfecta.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $656.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 3 Winning Vision (3.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Juvenile - # 4 Toews On Ice (9.70) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Wild (8.00) - No Selection
We began oh so well, as we got "A" Selections home in each of the first two legs; and non-Favorites to boot! But we had absolutely no part of either winner in the second half of the sequence, as "A" Selection # 2 Annie's Candy (2.60) was a very distant second in The Barretts Juvenile, while none of the four runners that we covered in the finale were even able to make it into the Superfecta.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 2 / 3 / 4 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $656.90 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/20/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
And so this is it, the final Sunday of the "So Where Did They Put The Ferris Wheel?" Meet at Los Alamitos. The featured race today is the The Barretts Juvenile; it's carded as Race 8, so you'll see it below as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.
RACE 6 - OC 62k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Perfect Set (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Solid Wager (ML 4-1)
C's
# 6 Rocko's Wheel (ML 5-2)
Perfect Set moves up in class after having defeated OC 40k/N1X company by daylight last time out. Solid Wager has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in two of his last three starts. Rocko's Wheel has been running hot and then cold; maybe that pattern will continue today.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Sweetrayofsunshine (ML 5-2)
# 3 Winning Vision (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Stealth Drone (ML 4-1)
# 5 Exposure (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Sweetrayofsunshine got the better of Winning Vision when those two went head to head last month at Del Mar. Sweetrayofsunshine took a step backwards last time out; but I don't think that the level of competition that Sweetrayofsunshine faces today will be as stiff as it was in that contest.
Winning Vision could be the speed of the speed here, and may be too quick for anyone to catch today. Stealth Drone made a nice move forward last time out, but a concern is how she'll perform for her new barn. Exposure earned the best Beyer Speed Figure of her career in her only prior try on this main track; and that figure, if repeated, could be good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [R] The Barretts Juvenile $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)
# 8 Good for It (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Gio Mio (ML 9-2)
C's
None
# 9 Scatastic (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Annie's Candy took the Show in the Grade 2 Best Pal two starts back. Good for It earned a Beyer Speed Figure in his debut last time out that would be the career best Beyer for every other runner in this field except Annie's Candy. Gio Mio ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was part of it.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Ace Deuce (ML 7-2))
# 5 Rob's Pal (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 Better Luck (ML 6-1)
# 10 Attack (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Neither of the Also Eligibles, # 11 Three Red Sevens (ML 6-1) and # 12 Daring Vision (ML 30-1) draw in.
Ace Deuce could be the quickest early in this contest. The last time Ace Deuce competed with a price tag on his head he just missed graduating by half a length. Rob's Pal took the Place against more expensive two starts back; but that was over a year ago. While Ace Deuce and Rob's Pal are a combined oh-for-twenty-eight, it should be noted that the overwhelming majority of those contests for each runner were against much more expensive stock.
Better Luck took the Show at this class level last time out. Attack took the Place at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 2,3 with 2.8 with 2,5 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 2,3,4,5 with 2,7,8 with 2,4,5,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3 with 2.8 with 2,5 $4.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - OC 62k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Perfect Set (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 3 Solid Wager (ML 4-1)
C's
# 6 Rocko's Wheel (ML 5-2)
Perfect Set moves up in class after having defeated OC 40k/N1X company by daylight last time out. Solid Wager has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in two of his last three starts. Rocko's Wheel has been running hot and then cold; maybe that pattern will continue today.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Sweetrayofsunshine (ML 5-2)
# 3 Winning Vision (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 4 Stealth Drone (ML 4-1)
# 5 Exposure (ML 2-1)
C's
None
Sweetrayofsunshine got the better of Winning Vision when those two went head to head last month at Del Mar. Sweetrayofsunshine took a step backwards last time out; but I don't think that the level of competition that Sweetrayofsunshine faces today will be as stiff as it was in that contest.
Winning Vision could be the speed of the speed here, and may be too quick for anyone to catch today. Stealth Drone made a nice move forward last time out, but a concern is how she'll perform for her new barn. Exposure earned the best Beyer Speed Figure of her career in her only prior try on this main track; and that figure, if repeated, could be good enough to get the job done today.
RACE 8 - [R] The Barretts Juvenile $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Annie's Candy (ML 3-1)
# 8 Good for It (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Gio Mio (ML 9-2)
C's
None
# 9 Scatastic (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Annie's Candy took the Show in the Grade 2 Best Pal two starts back. Good for It earned a Beyer Speed Figure in his debut last time out that would be the career best Beyer for every other runner in this field except Annie's Candy. Gio Mio ran well in his debut last time out once he figured out that there was a race going on and that he was part of it.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Ace Deuce (ML 7-2))
# 5 Rob's Pal (ML 9-2)
B's
# 4 Better Luck (ML 6-1)
# 10 Attack (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Neither of the Also Eligibles, # 11 Three Red Sevens (ML 6-1) and # 12 Daring Vision (ML 30-1) draw in.
Ace Deuce could be the quickest early in this contest. The last time Ace Deuce competed with a price tag on his head he just missed graduating by half a length. Rob's Pal took the Place against more expensive two starts back; but that was over a year ago. While Ace Deuce and Rob's Pal are a combined oh-for-twenty-eight, it should be noted that the overwhelming majority of those contests for each runner were against much more expensive stock.
Better Luck took the Show at this class level last time out. Attack took the Place at this class level last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 2,3 with 2.8 with 2,5 $8.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3 with 2,3,4,5 with 2,7,8 with 2,4,5,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,3 with 2.8 with 2,5 $4.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 19, 2015
9/19/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 5 Courageous Dave (Final Odds 1.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 8 Better Bet (12.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Debutante - # 3 Just Google Me (0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Treasuring (4.20) - "B" Selection
Yeah, we had them all scattered about our tickets; but really, it wasn't that good a showing, as we were dead halfway through the sequence, and we failed to get home any of our "A" Selections. Still, we did do a few things right; for example, we correctly identified Race 7 as the one most likely to bring home a price. But the bottom line is the bottom line, and ours took a hit, as today was a day for us to trash 'em rather than cash 'em.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 8 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $401.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 8 Better Bet (12.70) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The Barretts Debutante - # 3 Just Google Me (0.80*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Treasuring (4.20) - "B" Selection
Yeah, we had them all scattered about our tickets; but really, it wasn't that good a showing, as we were dead halfway through the sequence, and we failed to get home any of our "A" Selections. Still, we did do a few things right; for example, we correctly identified Race 7 as the one most likely to bring home a price. But the bottom line is the bottom line, and ours took a hit, as today was a day for us to trash 'em rather than cash 'em.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 5 / 8 / 3 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $401.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/19/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
So as we enter the final weekend of the "We're not in Los Angeles Anymore" Meet at Los Alamitos, we see that three of the final four races Saturday are for juveniles; so be forewarned, this could get messy. Interestingly enough though, in my personal opinion it's the race for older horses, and not the two year olds, that presents the greatest challenge. But more on that below, as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Purrin' Proud (Morning Line 5-2)
# 9 Dixie Writer (ML 6-1)
B's
# 8 Counterplay (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Courageous Dave (ML 3-1)
Purrin' Proud showed good early speed in his debut last time out against non-claiming maidens. Now that the experiment with the blinkers is over and the hood has been removed, Dixie Writer should revert to the form that he showed two starts back when he took the Show at this class level.
Counterplay has been quick early against more expensive. Courageous Dave is debuting with a price tag on his head that's $25k less than what he was purchased for earlier this year - hardly a good sign. But Trainer Doug O'Neill does a good job of getting purse money for those that he's willing to part with in their initial tries.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Dream Police (ML 4-1)
# 5 Airfoil (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Toledo Eddie (ML 7-2)
# 2 Sea Preacher (ML 5-1)
# 7 He's So Fine (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Dead Easy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Bentley's Gone (ML 6-1)
# 8 Better Bet (ML 6-1)
Everyone into the pool on this one, as all entrants in this contest find their way onto our tickets in one form or another.
Dream Police, competing against winners for the first time today, has been much improved since stretching out to two turn contests. Airfoil has definitely shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and could be the one running best late in a field filled with a lot of early speed.
Toledo Eddie threw in a real clunker last time out; if that's his true current form, then he has no chance today. But if that was just a fluke caused by something that has since been corrected, then Toledo Eddie could be the one getting his picture taken today.
Sea Preacher has finished in the Exacta in both of his career starts on a fast dirt track. He's So Fine has earned Beyer Speed Figures in the nineties the last two times that he's returned from a single line break.
It took awhile for Dead Easy to graduate, but he's finished in the Trifecta in four of his five starts since. Bentley's Gone was in well over his head last time out, and should appreciate the class relief. Better Bet's recent form looks a lot better if you just focus on the two turn races on a fast dirt track.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Barretts Debutante $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Runninforhoody (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Just Google Me (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Sharp Holiday (ML 5-2)
Runninforhoody took the Place against open stakes company last time out. Just Google Me has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her career starts, all against state-bred company. Sharp Holiday had to drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in order to graduate, but the Beyer Speed Figure that she earned in that contest fits in with the contenders here.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Tiz a Tommy Town (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Treasuring (ML 7-2)
# 5 Oh Great Idea (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Structure (ML 8-1)
# 11 Active Runner (ML 10-1)
# 4 Instant Drama (ML 20-1) and # 10 Sweet Queen (ML 20-1) are both vet scratches.
Tiz a Tommy Town, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has finished in the Trifecta in each of her three prior career starts, all at this class level. Treasuring should appreciate the turn back in distance. They went too fast early last time for Oh Great Idea; she may get a better pace setup today. Structure and Active Runner are a pair of first time starters trained by Bob Baffert.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 6 with 9 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 3,6 with 1,5,9 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,5 with 6 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3,6,8 with 6 with 9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 2 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 6 with 3,11 $4.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Purrin' Proud (Morning Line 5-2)
# 9 Dixie Writer (ML 6-1)
B's
# 8 Counterplay (ML 6-1)
C's
# 5 Courageous Dave (ML 3-1)
Purrin' Proud showed good early speed in his debut last time out against non-claiming maidens. Now that the experiment with the blinkers is over and the hood has been removed, Dixie Writer should revert to the form that he showed two starts back when he took the Show at this class level.
Counterplay has been quick early against more expensive. Courageous Dave is debuting with a price tag on his head that's $25k less than what he was purchased for earlier this year - hardly a good sign. But Trainer Doug O'Neill does a good job of getting purse money for those that he's willing to part with in their initial tries.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Dream Police (ML 4-1)
# 5 Airfoil (ML 8-1)
B’s
# 1 Toledo Eddie (ML 7-2)
# 2 Sea Preacher (ML 5-1)
# 7 He's So Fine (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Dead Easy (ML 12-1)
# 6 Bentley's Gone (ML 6-1)
# 8 Better Bet (ML 6-1)
Everyone into the pool on this one, as all entrants in this contest find their way onto our tickets in one form or another.
Dream Police, competing against winners for the first time today, has been much improved since stretching out to two turn contests. Airfoil has definitely shown himself to be competitive at this class level, and could be the one running best late in a field filled with a lot of early speed.
Toledo Eddie threw in a real clunker last time out; if that's his true current form, then he has no chance today. But if that was just a fluke caused by something that has since been corrected, then Toledo Eddie could be the one getting his picture taken today.
Sea Preacher has finished in the Exacta in both of his career starts on a fast dirt track. He's So Fine has earned Beyer Speed Figures in the nineties the last two times that he's returned from a single line break.
It took awhile for Dead Easy to graduate, but he's finished in the Trifecta in four of his five starts since. Bentley's Gone was in well over his head last time out, and should appreciate the class relief. Better Bet's recent form looks a lot better if you just focus on the two turn races on a fast dirt track.
RACE 8 - [R] (F) The Barretts Debutante $100k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Runninforhoody (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Just Google Me (ML 9-5)
C's
# 2 Sharp Holiday (ML 5-2)
Runninforhoody took the Place against open stakes company last time out. Just Google Me has finished in the Trifecta in all three of her career starts, all against state-bred company. Sharp Holiday had to drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in order to graduate, but the Beyer Speed Figure that she earned in that contest fits in with the contenders here.
RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 9 Tiz a Tommy Town (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Treasuring (ML 7-2)
# 5 Oh Great Idea (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Structure (ML 8-1)
# 11 Active Runner (ML 10-1)
# 4 Instant Drama (ML 20-1) and # 10 Sweet Queen (ML 20-1) are both vet scratches.
Tiz a Tommy Town, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has finished in the Trifecta in each of her three prior career starts, all at this class level. Treasuring should appreciate the turn back in distance. They went too fast early last time for Oh Great Idea; she may get a better pace setup today. Structure and Active Runner are a pair of first time starters trained by Bob Baffert.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 6 with 9 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,8,9 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 3,6 with 1,5,9 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,5 with 6 with 9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3,6,8 with 6 with 9 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 2 with 9 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 4,5 with 6 with 3,11 $4.00
Total: $59.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 13, 2015
9/13/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 4 Unusual Storm (Final Odds 0.90*) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 5 Pebble Beach Baby (6.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Contender - # 5 Mt Veeder (0.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Love My Bud (9.00) - No Selection
Two odds-on Post Time Favorites won, and we didn't use either as an "A" Selection, meaning that the public was much smarter than we were in those two events. Had we been clever enough to use Unusual Storm as a "B" Selection rather than a "C", or Mt Veeder as an "A" rather than a "B", we would have been alive entering the finale - where we would have had our hearts broken, as our "A" Selection # 12 Wade (0.90*) simply refused to pass Love My Bud in the stretch and lost the photo by a nose. So sometimes things happen for a reason.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $123.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 5 Pebble Beach Baby (6.40) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Contender - # 5 Mt Veeder (0.40*) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - # 9 Love My Bud (9.00) - No Selection
Two odds-on Post Time Favorites won, and we didn't use either as an "A" Selection, meaning that the public was much smarter than we were in those two events. Had we been clever enough to use Unusual Storm as a "B" Selection rather than a "C", or Mt Veeder as an "A" rather than a "B", we would have been alive entering the finale - where we would have had our hearts broken, as our "A" Selection # 12 Wade (0.90*) simply refused to pass Love My Bud in the stretch and lost the photo by a nose. So sometimes things happen for a reason.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 4 / 5 / 5 / 9 were rewarded with a payout of $123.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/13/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the first of two Sundays of sunlight racing in the "These Dates Used To Belong To Fairplex" Meet at Los Alamitos. And speaking of Fairplex, it was eleven years ago today that Lava Man won The Derby Trial Stakes, his first start after having been claimed by Trainer Doug O'Neill one month earlier. All of which is my way of saying that I have absolutely nothing in the way of introduction today. So let's just get to it as we take another run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Just Bookin (Morning Line 8-1)
# 11 Stella Moon (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Unusual Storm (ML 5-2)
# 1 Honky Tonk Diva (No Line) is a program scratch. Also scratch # 2 Big Ruler (ML 6-1); # 3 Korcha Kid (ML 20-1); and # 5 Spiritofthescript (ML 7-2).
Just Bookin earned the best Beyer Speed Figure of her career in her sole prior start over this main track. Stella Moon returns to action after a nearly four month layoff with the lowest price tag of her career on her head. Stella Moon also projects to be the quickest out of the gate, especially with the scratch of Spiritofthescript. Unusual Storm is probably better suited for the grass than for dirt; but the drop in class from the state bred non-claiming ranks must be respected.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sarahline (ML 3-1)
# 5 Pebble Beach Baby (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 1 Guild (ML 15-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 7-2)
# 4 Hennythelovepenny (ML 8-1)
# 6 Margie's Minute (ML 12-1)
# 7 Tiz a Classy Lass (ML 8-1)
# 8 Dissension (ML 5-2)
C's
None
This one looks to be pretty wide open; so everyone gets to be on our tickets.
Sarahline and Pebble Beach Baby are both recent stakes winners, albeit outside the SoCal circuit. Guild took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back. Fantastic Mizz just missed by a nose at this class level over this main track the last time that she competed on dirt.
Hennythelovepenny's Beyers show her to be rounding into form, especially if you toss that effort on the off track in July. Margie's Minute earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure while competing on this main track.
Dissension just missed by a head at this class level over this main track the last time that she competed on dirt. Tiz a Classy Lass is making her first career start on a fast dirt track; and while Trainer Marty Jones has not been successful with that move, Tiz a Classy Lass remains on our tickets because there's just no way I'm using "ALL minus one" in this race.
RACE 8 - The Contender $75k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bully Pulpit (ML 2-1)
B's
# 5 Mt Veeder (ML 7-5)
C's
# 2 Bistraya (ML 8-1)
Bully Pulpit is the only runner in this field of juveniles with multiple career victories. Mt Veeder, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, was a clear winner in his debut last time out. Bully Pulpit and Mt Veeder share the honor of having the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Bistraya is still a maiden, but he was up on the pace in the Grade 2 Best Pal last time out; and Bistraya's workouts since indicate that he came out of that contest just fine.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Wade (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Sindys Luck (ML 5-1)
C's
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Just Bookin (Morning Line 8-1)
# 11 Stella Moon (ML 3-1)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Unusual Storm (ML 5-2)
# 1 Honky Tonk Diva (No Line) is a program scratch. Also scratch # 2 Big Ruler (ML 6-1); # 3 Korcha Kid (ML 20-1); and # 5 Spiritofthescript (ML 7-2).
Just Bookin earned the best Beyer Speed Figure of her career in her sole prior start over this main track. Stella Moon returns to action after a nearly four month layoff with the lowest price tag of her career on her head. Stella Moon also projects to be the quickest out of the gate, especially with the scratch of Spiritofthescript. Unusual Storm is probably better suited for the grass than for dirt; but the drop in class from the state bred non-claiming ranks must be respected.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N$Y - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Sarahline (ML 3-1)
# 5 Pebble Beach Baby (ML 9-2)
B’s
# 1 Guild (ML 15-1)
# 2 Fantastic Mizz (ML 7-2)
# 4 Hennythelovepenny (ML 8-1)
# 6 Margie's Minute (ML 12-1)
# 7 Tiz a Classy Lass (ML 8-1)
# 8 Dissension (ML 5-2)
C's
None
This one looks to be pretty wide open; so everyone gets to be on our tickets.
Sarahline and Pebble Beach Baby are both recent stakes winners, albeit outside the SoCal circuit. Guild took the Place against more expensive stock two starts back. Fantastic Mizz just missed by a nose at this class level over this main track the last time that she competed on dirt.
Hennythelovepenny's Beyers show her to be rounding into form, especially if you toss that effort on the off track in July. Margie's Minute earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure while competing on this main track.
Dissension just missed by a head at this class level over this main track the last time that she competed on dirt. Tiz a Classy Lass is making her first career start on a fast dirt track; and while Trainer Marty Jones has not been successful with that move, Tiz a Classy Lass remains on our tickets because there's just no way I'm using "ALL minus one" in this race.
RACE 8 - The Contender $75k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Bully Pulpit (ML 2-1)
B's
# 5 Mt Veeder (ML 7-5)
C's
# 2 Bistraya (ML 8-1)
Bully Pulpit is the only runner in this field of juveniles with multiple career victories. Mt Veeder, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, was a clear winner in his debut last time out. Bully Pulpit and Mt Veeder share the honor of having the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Bistraya is still a maiden, but he was up on the pace in the Grade 2 Best Pal last time out; and Bistraya's workouts since indicate that he came out of that contest just fine.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 12 Wade (ML 5-2)
B's
# 6 Sindys Luck (ML 5-1)
C's
# 3 Stormin Swiss (ML 6-1)
# 5 Extra Lucky (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zip the Monkey (ML 12-1)
# 1 Royal Rebel (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
The lowest Beyer Speed Figure that Wade has earned in his four race career is still better than the best Beyer Speed Figure earned by any other runner in this field. So why isn't Wade a single on our tickets? One reason is because Wade is coming back from an extended layoff of over six months; Trainer Peter Euton has not had a winner from that group in his last twenty-plus tries. In addition, Wade has been the Post Time Favorites in half of his career starts without being able to graduate. So for those reasons, we're going to spread a bit here.
Sindys Luck moves up in class, but the Beyers that Sindys Luck has been earning fit at this class level. Stormin Swiss is a first time starter that has been training well over this main track. Extra Lucky and Zip the Monkey are also first time starters, each with a sire whose progeny tend to do well at first asking, especially among the California state bred ranks.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6,11 with 3,5 with 4 with 12 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 6,11 with ALL with 4,5 with 6,12 $32.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3,5 with 4 with 12 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 3,5 with 2 with 12 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 6,11 with 3,5 with 4 with 3,5,8 $6.00
Total: $45.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 12, 2015
9/12/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Day in the Sun (Final Odds 9.60) - "B" Selection
Race 7 - # 6 Guy Code (6.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The E. B. Johnston - # 4 Ambitious Brew (1.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Nite Delite (7.60) - No Selection
Congrats to Jockey Edwin Maldonado, who picked up career Win number one thousand by guiding Nite Delite home in the finale. Our day was significantly less successful than his. We completely whiffed on our "A" Selections; and we went five deep in both Race 7 and Race 9 only to have no part of the winner in either (though, in fairness to us, we did lose forty percent of our selections in Race 7 to late scratches, as # 2 Pay the Fine and 10 My Friend Emma both decided to bolt during the Post Parade).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 6 / 4 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,375.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 6 Guy Code (6.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - The E. B. Johnston - # 4 Ambitious Brew (1.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 8 Nite Delite (7.60) - No Selection
Congrats to Jockey Edwin Maldonado, who picked up career Win number one thousand by guiding Nite Delite home in the finale. Our day was significantly less successful than his. We completely whiffed on our "A" Selections; and we went five deep in both Race 7 and Race 9 only to have no part of the winner in either (though, in fairness to us, we did lose forty percent of our selections in Race 7 to late scratches, as # 2 Pay the Fine and 10 My Friend Emma both decided to bolt during the Post Parade).
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 6 / 4 / 8 were rewarded with a payout of $1,375.30 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/12/15 Los Alamitos Race Course Late Pick Four - Preview
It's the first of two Saturdays in the "This Seems Like a Good Time To Take a Vacation" Meet at Los Alamitos. But rest assured that we'll be here, because we're degenerates dedicated to this game. So with that, let's take a look at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Discovery (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Silver Spirit (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)
# 6 Day in the Sun (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Magic Moon (ML 5-1)
Big Discovery took the Place at this class level at today's distance last time out. Silver Spirit has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned at today's distance.
Dylan Ward, trained by Phil D'Amato, is making his first start on a fast dirt track, after having finished in the Trifecta in seven of his nine career turf starts. Day in the Sun took the Place at this class level over this main track two starts back. Magic Moon makes his second career start for Trainer Bob Baffert, his first around two turns.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 My Friend Emma (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Pay the Fine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sidepocket Champ (ML 12-1)
# 8 Prince Charmant (ML 3-1)
# 9 W. Giles (ML 7-2)
C's
None
# 3 Better Bet (No Line) is a program scratch.
My Friend Emma took the Place against open (non-state restricted) OC 25k/N1X company last time out; so this is a pretty significant drop in class. Note also the bullet work at Del Mar on the 5th. Personally, I think 6-1 is very optimistic; but I also think that My Friend Emma represents good value at even half that price.
Pay the Fine took the Place at this approximate class level last time out. Prince Charmant has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of his last two races.
W. Giles has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and goes first off the claim for Trainer Kelly Castaneda, who wins with over twenty percent of such. There are a lot of need to lead types in this field; Sidepocket Champ could be the one running best late, though the addition of blinkers today may complicate that forecast.
RACE 8 - [S] The E. B. Johnston $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Motown Men (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Ambitious Brew (ML 3-1)
Motown Men missed by less than a length against open stakes company last time out. Motown Men has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.
Ambitious Brew took the Place against state-bred stakes competition two starts back, the only prior start by Ambitious Brew over a fast dirt track.
RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Moonie (ML 3-1))
# 9 West Mid (ML 12-1)
B's
# 5 Cape's Rockette (ML 6-1)
# 7 Slew's Charm (ML 6-1)
# 10 Amitie Pour La Vie (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Moonie has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts over a fast dirt track. Moonie has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.
West Mid was within two lengths of the winner the last time that she raced on a fast dirt track, when her competition was open non-claiming maidens. Cape's Rockette and Amitie Pour La Vie are a pair of second time starters who showed good early speed in their respective debut. Slew's Charm has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last three starts, and could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7 with 2,7,8,9,10 with 8 with 4,5,7,9,10 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 4 with 4,9 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Big Discovery (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Silver Spirit (ML 7-2)
B's
# 3 Dylan Ward (ML 3-1)
# 6 Day in the Sun (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Magic Moon (ML 5-1)
Big Discovery took the Place at this class level at today's distance last time out. Silver Spirit has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, earned at today's distance.
Dylan Ward, trained by Phil D'Amato, is making his first start on a fast dirt track, after having finished in the Trifecta in seven of his nine career turf starts. Day in the Sun took the Place at this class level over this main track two starts back. Magic Moon makes his second career start for Trainer Bob Baffert, his first around two turns.
RACE 7 - [S] OC 20k/N$Y - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 My Friend Emma (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 2 Pay the Fine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Sidepocket Champ (ML 12-1)
# 8 Prince Charmant (ML 3-1)
# 9 W. Giles (ML 7-2)
C's
None
# 3 Better Bet (No Line) is a program scratch.
My Friend Emma took the Place against open (non-state restricted) OC 25k/N1X company last time out; so this is a pretty significant drop in class. Note also the bullet work at Del Mar on the 5th. Personally, I think 6-1 is very optimistic; but I also think that My Friend Emma represents good value at even half that price.
Pay the Fine took the Place at this approximate class level last time out. Prince Charmant has finished in the Trifecta at this approximate class level in each of his last two races.
W. Giles has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, and goes first off the claim for Trainer Kelly Castaneda, who wins with over twenty percent of such. There are a lot of need to lead types in this field; Sidepocket Champ could be the one running best late, though the addition of blinkers today may complicate that forecast.
RACE 8 - [S] The E. B. Johnston $75k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Motown Men (ML 9-5)
B's
None
C's
# 4 Ambitious Brew (ML 3-1)
Motown Men missed by less than a length against open stakes company last time out. Motown Men has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of his last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.
Ambitious Brew took the Place against state-bred stakes competition two starts back, the only prior start by Ambitious Brew over a fast dirt track.
RACE 9 - [S] (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Moonie (ML 3-1))
# 9 West Mid (ML 12-1)
B's
# 5 Cape's Rockette (ML 6-1)
# 7 Slew's Charm (ML 6-1)
# 10 Amitie Pour La Vie (ML 20-1)
C's
None
Moonie has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last two starts over a fast dirt track. Moonie has earned Beyer Speed Figures in each of her last two races that are superior to those earned by any other runner in this field in either of their last two races.
West Mid was within two lengths of the winner the last time that she raced on a fast dirt track, when her competition was open non-claiming maidens. Cape's Rockette and Amitie Pour La Vie are a pair of second time starters who showed good early speed in their respective debut. Slew's Charm has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last three starts, and could be the one running best late.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,3,6,7 with 2,7,8,9,10 with 8 with 4,5,7,9,10 $50.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1 with 10 with 8 with 4,9 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 10 with 4 with 4,9 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 7:28 EDT / 4:28 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, September 7, 2015
9/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - # 5 Do the Dance (Final Odds 13.70) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Del Mar Futurity - # 5 Nyquist (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 3 Jakaby Jade (GB) (7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Unforgettable U (1.10*) - "A" Selection
And that's why you play back-up tickets.
Of course, a little better handicapping could have spared us from having to rely on one of our "A's" coming through in the finale. Do the Dance was such a likelihood to be loose on the lead in the opener that we could have spread a little less wide in that contest; and a little more faith in the success Trainer Doug O'Neill has been having on the big days this meet would have elevated Jakaby Jade (GB) from a "C" Selection to at least a "B" on our tickets. But despite those errors we cash; and that's just fine by me.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Glory (3.20) - $405.00 Finish: 4th
# 4 Josephine's Moment (11.40) - $1,286.95 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 5 / 5 / 3 / 10 paid $325.45 for a fifty cent wager, making for approximate odds of 3-1 on our $81 investment. Which, again, is just fine by me.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The Del Mar Futurity - # 5 Nyquist (0.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf - # 3 Jakaby Jade (GB) (7.40) - "C" Selection
Race 10 - # 10 Unforgettable U (1.10*) - "A" Selection
And that's why you play back-up tickets.
Of course, a little better handicapping could have spared us from having to rely on one of our "A's" coming through in the finale. Do the Dance was such a likelihood to be loose on the lead in the opener that we could have spread a little less wide in that contest; and a little more faith in the success Trainer Doug O'Neill has been having on the big days this meet would have elevated Jakaby Jade (GB) from a "C" Selection to at least a "B" on our tickets. But despite those errors we cash; and that's just fine by me.
For the record, here are the $0.50 Will Pays for the other runners to which we were alive in the finale:
# 1 Glory (3.20) - $405.00 Finish: 4th
# 4 Josephine's Moment (11.40) - $1,286.95 Finish: 8th
But that's what might have been. The actual winning Pick Four sequence of 5 / 5 / 3 / 10 paid $325.45 for a fifty cent wager, making for approximate odds of 3-1 on our $81 investment. Which, again, is just fine by me.
I hope you all had it with me. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
Happy Labor Day everyone, as we come to the final day of the Del Mar Summer Meet. Juveniles dominate the final four races on the card; so be forewarned, we're almost definitely going over budget. With that said, let's try to finish this meet on an up note as we yet again take a run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Do the Dance (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Red Stitch (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Sassy Ashley (ML 7-2)
# 4 Always Dangerous (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Eileen's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 8 Coronado Cool (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lynne's Legacy (No Line) is a program scratch. In fact, none of the other Also Eligibles (# 11 Keira (ML 5-1); # 13 Two Step Glory (ML 12-1); and # 14 Dreamarcher (ML 4-1)) draw in either.
Do the Dance and Red Stitch look to be the best of the experienced runners. Do the Dance adds the hood, so she may be too quick to catch; while Red Stitch closed better in her debut than it may appear in her running line.
Sassy Ashley is sired by English Channel, so the turf gene is definitely there. Always Dangerous is trained by Phil D'Amato, who has been doing quite well with two year olds. Eileen's Girl, sired by Medaglia d'Oro, made a sharp move in her last work. Coronado Cool's Jockey / Trainer combo of Corey Nakatani and Eric Kruljac seem to do much better work together than they do apart.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nyquist (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Blameitonthelaw (ML 3-1)
C's
None
The two Bob Baffert trained runners, # 1 Nightly News (ML 8-1) and # 4 Mt Veeder (ML 5-1) have been scratched.
Nyquist, trained by Doug O'Neill, is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field; indeed, Nyquist is the only runner in this field with multiple wins. Blameitonthelaw, trained by John Sadler, was well clear while winning his debut last time out.
RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Gomo (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Optimism and Hope (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 5 One Last Shot (ML 7-2)
# 9 Imflatoutsweet (ML 5-2)
C's
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Do the Dance (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Red Stitch (ML 9-2)
B's
# 3 Sassy Ashley (ML 7-2)
# 4 Always Dangerous (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Eileen's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 8 Coronado Cool (ML 20-1)
# 12 Lynne's Legacy (No Line) is a program scratch. In fact, none of the other Also Eligibles (# 11 Keira (ML 5-1); # 13 Two Step Glory (ML 12-1); and # 14 Dreamarcher (ML 4-1)) draw in either.
Do the Dance and Red Stitch look to be the best of the experienced runners. Do the Dance adds the hood, so she may be too quick to catch; while Red Stitch closed better in her debut than it may appear in her running line.
Sassy Ashley is sired by English Channel, so the turf gene is definitely there. Always Dangerous is trained by Phil D'Amato, who has been doing quite well with two year olds. Eileen's Girl, sired by Medaglia d'Oro, made a sharp move in her last work. Coronado Cool's Jockey / Trainer combo of Corey Nakatani and Eric Kruljac seem to do much better work together than they do apart.
RACE 8 - The Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Nyquist (ML 5-2)
B's
# 7 Blameitonthelaw (ML 3-1)
C's
None
The two Bob Baffert trained runners, # 1 Nightly News (ML 8-1) and # 4 Mt Veeder (ML 5-1) have been scratched.
Nyquist, trained by Doug O'Neill, is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field; indeed, Nyquist is the only runner in this field with multiple wins. Blameitonthelaw, trained by John Sadler, was well clear while winning his debut last time out.
RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Gomo (ML 3-1)
B's
# 4 Optimism and Hope (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 5 One Last Shot (ML 7-2)
# 9 Imflatoutsweet (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Jakaby Jade (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Find Joy (ML 15-1)
# 12 Sutton's Smile (ML 20-1) has been scratched.
Gomo, Optimism And Hope (Ire), and Imflatoutsweet are the only three runners in this field with route wins. One Last Shot has by far the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit one that was earned on dirt. Jakaby Jade (GB) may improve in her North American debut with the added distance. Find Joy has been working steady leading into this contest.
RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Glory (ML 7-2)
# 4 Josephine's Moment (ML 10-1)
# 10 Unforgettable U (ML 3-1)
B’s
# 9 Discatsonthesquare (ML 12-1)
C's
# 6 Sensitively (ML 4-1)
# 14 Big Break (ML 20-1)
# 2 Exposure (NL); # 5 Hansarella (NL); # 12 Lost Bus (NL); and # 13 Campionessa Dolce (NL) are all program scratches. # 7 Moyo Honey (20-1) has also been scratched.
Glory, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, drops in class after having competed against stakes company in her prior three starts. Josephine's Moment just missed by less than a length at this class level last time out. Unforgettable U raced above her conditions last time out and just missed winning by a nose.
Discatsonthesquare has finished in the Trifecta in each of her last three races, all at this class level. Sensitively should improve with the return to dirt. Big Break got to visit the Winner's Circle the last time that she competed at this class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 1 with 1,4,10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,9 with 5,7 with 1,4,5,9 with 1,4,9,10 $64.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 5 with 1 with 1,4,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 3,10 with 1,4,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 1 with 6,14 $2.00
Total: $81.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:18 EDT / 5:18 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, September 6, 2015
9/6/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The Del Mar Derby - # 6 Om (Final Odds 6.50) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 10 Ground Rules (4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 10 She's Not Here (6.40) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Tulira Castle (2.60*) - "B" Selection
Our play died early, as our single single, # 2 Prospect Park (0.30*) just didn't have it today, for despite a near perfect trip stalking Om in the Del Mar Derby, Prospect Park faded in the drive and had to settle for the Show.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 10 / 10 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,061.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - # 10 Ground Rules (4.60) - "B" Selection
Race 9 - The Yellow Ribbon - # 10 She's Not Here (6.40) - "B" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Tulira Castle (2.60*) - "B" Selection
Our play died early, as our single single, # 2 Prospect Park (0.30*) just didn't have it today, for despite a near perfect trip stalking Om in the Del Mar Derby, Prospect Park faded in the drive and had to settle for the Show.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 10 / 10 / 4 were rewarded with a payout of $1,061.65 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/6/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
There's a pair of Graded Stakes on the SoCal card today: The Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, and the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon Handicap. Both will be contested on the grass; and since they've each been placed toward the latter portion of the card, we'll be looking at both as we once again take a run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 7 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Prospect Park (Morning Line 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Soul Driver (ML 7-2)
Prospect Park took the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap over this turf course last time out in what was his first ever race on the grass. A repeat of that effort would almost certainly put Prospect Park back in the Winner's Circle today.
Soul Driver enters this contest with a two race winning streak. If # 6 Om (ML 5-2) should force Prospect Park to move too soon and get drawn into a pace duel, then it's possible that Soul Driver may be able to close late and catch them at the wire.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Skip Tony (ML 3-1)
# 6 Toledo Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 7 Yahoo Tahoe (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 1 Just Kidding (ML 5-1)
# 2 Sea Preacher (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tribal Again (ML 8-1)
# 5 Henry's Holiday (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cautious Giant (ML 8-1)
# 9 Got Even (ML 8-1)
# 10 Ground Rules (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Do you know who's going to win Race 8 at Del Mar on Sunday? Well God bless you if you do, because I sure don't. This may be the most evenly matched field that I've had to handicap this meet.
Skip Tony was a minor stakes winner the last time that he competed on a fast dirt track. Toledo Eddie is seven-for-twelve lifetime when competing on a fast dirt track. Yahoo Tahoe goes first off the claim for Trainer Andy Mathis, who wins with over twenty percent of such. The "B's" are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 10 She's Not Here (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Alexis Tangier (ML 12-1)
# 7 Istanford (ML 8-1)
# 11 Stormy Lucy (No Line) is a program scratch. # 12 Famous Alice (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Prize Exhibit (GB) took the Show last time out in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, after having crossed the wire first in her two prior starts, the Grade 2 San Clemente and the Grade 3 Senorita. This will be Prize Exhibit's first try against older horses.
Queen of The Sand (Ire) misses by a head and a neck of entering this contest having won three of her last four races. Queen of The Sand has finished in the Exacta in all four of her races on this turf course.
Toss out She's Not Here's try on the dirt on the Fourth of July, and she has been showing a steadily improving form this Spring and Summer that warrants this step up on the class ladder. Alexis Tangier, trained by Richard Mandella, was within two lengths of Fanticola at the wire in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine last time out. Istanford should be quickest early and may try to steal it on the front end, as she did in last Summer's Grade 2 San Clemente.
RACE 10 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 China Prince (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Roman Tizzy (ML 5-1)
# 4 Tulira Castle (ML 9-2)
C's
# 5 Celebrity Status (ML 6-1)
None of the Also Eligibles (# 11 Pure Thunder (ML 8-1); # 12 China Doll Lover (ML 4-1); # 13 Broadway Nika (ML 6-1); and # 14 Macho Sox (ML 15-1)) draw in.
China Prince has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts on a fast dirt track. Roman Tizzy has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Tulira Castle goes first off the claim for Trainer Ron Ellis, who wins over thirty percent of the time that he moves a runner from turf to dirt. Celebrity Status, also trained by Ron Ellis, took the Place against more expensive the last time that he was in for a tag.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 3 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2 with ALL with 6,8,10 with 1,3,4 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 2,7 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 5 $3.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:25 EDT / 5:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - The Del Mar Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Prospect Park (Morning Line 8-5)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Soul Driver (ML 7-2)
Prospect Park took the Grade 3 La Jolla Handicap over this turf course last time out in what was his first ever race on the grass. A repeat of that effort would almost certainly put Prospect Park back in the Winner's Circle today.
Soul Driver enters this contest with a two race winning streak. If # 6 Om (ML 5-2) should force Prospect Park to move too soon and get drawn into a pace duel, then it's possible that Soul Driver may be able to close late and catch them at the wire.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Skip Tony (ML 3-1)
# 6 Toledo Eddie (ML 4-1)
# 7 Yahoo Tahoe (ML 12-1)
B’s
# 1 Just Kidding (ML 5-1)
# 2 Sea Preacher (ML 12-1)
# 3 Tribal Again (ML 8-1)
# 5 Henry's Holiday (ML 12-1)
# 8 Cautious Giant (ML 8-1)
# 9 Got Even (ML 8-1)
# 10 Ground Rules (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Do you know who's going to win Race 8 at Del Mar on Sunday? Well God bless you if you do, because I sure don't. This may be the most evenly matched field that I've had to handicap this meet.
Skip Tony was a minor stakes winner the last time that he competed on a fast dirt track. Toledo Eddie is seven-for-twelve lifetime when competing on a fast dirt track. Yahoo Tahoe goes first off the claim for Trainer Andy Mathis, who wins with over twenty percent of such. The "B's" are everyone else.
RACE 9 - (F) The Yellow Ribbon Handicap (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Prize Exhibit (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 8 Queen of The Sand (Ire) (ML 7-2)
B's
# 10 She's Not Here (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Alexis Tangier (ML 12-1)
# 7 Istanford (ML 8-1)
# 11 Stormy Lucy (No Line) is a program scratch. # 12 Famous Alice (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Prize Exhibit (GB) took the Show last time out in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, after having crossed the wire first in her two prior starts, the Grade 2 San Clemente and the Grade 3 Senorita. This will be Prize Exhibit's first try against older horses.
Queen of The Sand (Ire) misses by a head and a neck of entering this contest having won three of her last four races. Queen of The Sand has finished in the Exacta in all four of her races on this turf course.
Toss out She's Not Here's try on the dirt on the Fourth of July, and she has been showing a steadily improving form this Spring and Summer that warrants this step up on the class ladder. Alexis Tangier, trained by Richard Mandella, was within two lengths of Fanticola at the wire in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine last time out. Istanford should be quickest early and may try to steal it on the front end, as she did in last Summer's Grade 2 San Clemente.
RACE 10 - Clm $25k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 China Prince (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 1 Roman Tizzy (ML 5-1)
# 4 Tulira Castle (ML 9-2)
C's
# 5 Celebrity Status (ML 6-1)
None of the Also Eligibles (# 11 Pure Thunder (ML 8-1); # 12 China Doll Lover (ML 4-1); # 13 Broadway Nika (ML 6-1); and # 14 Macho Sox (ML 15-1)) draw in.
China Prince has finished in the Trifecta in each of his two prior career starts on a fast dirt track. Roman Tizzy has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Tulira Castle goes first off the claim for Trainer Ron Ellis, who wins over thirty percent of the time that he moves a runner from turf to dirt. Celebrity Status, also trained by Ron Ellis, took the Place against more expensive the last time that he was in for a tag.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 3 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2 with ALL with 6,8,10 with 1,3,4 $45.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 2,7 with 3 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 4,6,7 with 6,8 with 5 $3.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:25 EDT / 5:25 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, September 5, 2015
9/5/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Results
Race 8 - # 8 Spirit of Ten (Final Odds 3.80) - No Selection
Race 9 - The Del Mar Debutante - # 11 Songbird (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Texas Ryano (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 11 Market Notes (6.50) - No Selection
So, I handicapped the opening leg. I saw # 5 Tiz a Kiss (1.70*) as a solid favorite. I looked closely and realized that # 10 Egyptian Empire (37.60) stood a strong chance of running a race at least equal to that of the likely favorite. And I was proven right; as Egyptian Empire beat the Post Time Favorite to the wire by about three quarters of a length.
The problem is that they weren't finishing Win / Place but rather 7th / 8th.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 11 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $268.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 9 - The Del Mar Debutante - # 11 Songbird (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - # 4 Texas Ryano (2.00*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 11 Market Notes (6.50) - No Selection
So, I handicapped the opening leg. I saw # 5 Tiz a Kiss (1.70*) as a solid favorite. I looked closely and realized that # 10 Egyptian Empire (37.60) stood a strong chance of running a race at least equal to that of the likely favorite. And I was proven right; as Egyptian Empire beat the Post Time Favorite to the wire by about three quarters of a length.
The problem is that they weren't finishing Win / Place but rather 7th / 8th.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who had the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 11 / 4 / 11 were rewarded with a payout of $268.40 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
9/5/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview
It's Labor Day weekend (Labour Day weekend for our Canadian friends), the unofficial end of Summertime, and the official end of the Del Mar meet. Juvenile fillies have the spotlight today, as the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante is the featured event on the card. The seven furlong contest will go as Race 9, so we'll be taking a look at it as we take yet another run at the Pick Four at the place where the turf meets the surf.
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Tiz a Kiss (Morning Line 3-1)
# 10 Egyptian Empire (ML 15-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Frandontjudge (ML 7-2)
Neither of the two Also Eligibles, # 12 Lost Bus (ML 6-1) and # 13 Hanserella (ML 20-1) draw in.
Tiz a Kiss just missed winning at this class level by a head last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Egyptian Empire showed a strong closing kick at this class level last time out, finishing just two lengths back of Chaulk O Lattey, who went on to take the Place in the Solana Beach Handicap. While I don't think Egyptian Empire is as good as Tiz a Kiss, I do think that Egyptian Empire has a much better chance of winning than her Morning Line odds suggest, and that she would still be worth a look at even one third of that price.
Frandontjudge misses by just a head of being a perfect three-for-three since being claimed by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer; but today's contest contains a much classier field than any that Frandontjudge has had to compete against so far this year.
RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Pretty N Cool (ML 2-1)
# 11 Songbird (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Come to Mischief (ML 8-1)
# 5 Surfside Tiara (ML 7-2)
# 6 Stays in Vegas (ML 15-1)
# 9 Gomo (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Pretty N Cool, a perfect two-for-two so far in her young career, is the only Graded Stakes winner in the field, having taken the Grade 2 Sorrento over this main track last time out. Songbird has been working well since winning her debut over this main track by over a half dozen lengths. Songbird also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Come to Mischief was a listed stakes winner in her debut at Woodbine last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that fits in well with the contenders here; but the concern with Come to Mischief is how she'll perform on a fast dirt track. Surfside Tiara made a nice move forward while graduating in her second attempt last time out. Stays in Vegas, who like Surfside Tiara and Songbird is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the only multiple stakes winner in the field.
RACE 10 - OC 62k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Texas Ryano (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Unusual Taste (ML 6-1)
# 5 Atomic Rule (ML 6-1)
# 6 Surfcup (ML 12-1)
C's
# 8 Aotearoa (ML 8-1)
None of the four Also Eligibles, # 11 Perfectly Majestic (ML 6-1), # 12 Crucero (ML 5-1), # 13 Short Heat Wave (ML 12-1), and # 14 Bird E House (ML 15-1), draw in.
Texas Ryano has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three starts, all at this class level. Unusual Taste steps up in class after showing a good closing kick in each of his last two starts. Atomic Rule enters this contest having won four of his last five starts; but this will be a pretty big step up the class ladder for Atomic Rule relative to his last three victories.
Surfcup has been working well since his last start three weeks back, which was his first taste of competition in over two years. Surfcup looks to be the lone early speed in this contest (and, yes, that is something to consider on turf, though not to the same degree as on dirt). If Surfcup can return to the form that he showed back in 2013, then he could be the one getting his picture taken today.
Aotearoa would normally be an "A" selection in this race based upon his recent form; but Aotearoa will be removing the blinkers today. The last three times that Aotearoa competed with blinkers off he finished seventh, seventh, and seventh; the time prior to that he was eased, and the time prior to that he finished sixth. So, needless to say, I'm not too optimistic about this move.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Ain't Misbehavin (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Eagle Rock (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cowtownmary (ML 8-1)
# 7 Formally Wild (ML 7-2)
# 10 Wicker Man (ML 9-2)
C's
None
# 2 Porchetto (ML 15-1) scratched; but not early enough to allow either of the Also Eligibles (# 13 Smokeshow City (ML 15-1) and # 14 Top Drawer (ML 4-1)) to draw in.
Ain't Misbehavin drops in for the lowest price tag of his career, after having taken the Show against more expensive two starts back. Eagle Rock has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure that was earned on a fast dirt track in this field.
Cowtownmary took the Show at this class level last time out and could be the speed of the speed. Formally Wild competes on a fast dirt track for the first time in his career; if his turf form holds, Formally Wild could find himself in the Winner's Circle today. Wicker Man won by daylight in his debut last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 4 with 5 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,3,5,7,10 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,11 with 4 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 2,5,6 with 4 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 8 with 5 $2.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:31 EDT / 5:31 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Tiz a Kiss (Morning Line 3-1)
# 10 Egyptian Empire (ML 15-1)
B's
None
C's
# 2 Frandontjudge (ML 7-2)
Neither of the two Also Eligibles, # 12 Lost Bus (ML 6-1) and # 13 Hanserella (ML 20-1) draw in.
Tiz a Kiss just missed winning at this class level by a head last time out, earning this field's best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the process. Egyptian Empire showed a strong closing kick at this class level last time out, finishing just two lengths back of Chaulk O Lattey, who went on to take the Place in the Solana Beach Handicap. While I don't think Egyptian Empire is as good as Tiz a Kiss, I do think that Egyptian Empire has a much better chance of winning than her Morning Line odds suggest, and that she would still be worth a look at even one third of that price.
Frandontjudge misses by just a head of being a perfect three-for-three since being claimed by Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer; but today's contest contains a much classier field than any that Frandontjudge has had to compete against so far this year.
RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Debutante (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Pretty N Cool (ML 2-1)
# 11 Songbird (ML 5-2)
None
C's
# 2 Come to Mischief (ML 8-1)
# 5 Surfside Tiara (ML 7-2)
# 6 Stays in Vegas (ML 15-1)
# 9 Gomo (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Pretty N Cool, a perfect two-for-two so far in her young career, is the only Graded Stakes winner in the field, having taken the Grade 2 Sorrento over this main track last time out. Songbird has been working well since winning her debut over this main track by over a half dozen lengths. Songbird also has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
Come to Mischief was a listed stakes winner in her debut at Woodbine last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure in the process that fits in well with the contenders here; but the concern with Come to Mischief is how she'll perform on a fast dirt track. Surfside Tiara made a nice move forward while graduating in her second attempt last time out. Stays in Vegas, who like Surfside Tiara and Songbird is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the only multiple stakes winner in the field.
RACE 10 - OC 62k/N2X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Texas Ryano (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Unusual Taste (ML 6-1)
# 5 Atomic Rule (ML 6-1)
# 6 Surfcup (ML 12-1)
C's
# 8 Aotearoa (ML 8-1)
None of the four Also Eligibles, # 11 Perfectly Majestic (ML 6-1), # 12 Crucero (ML 5-1), # 13 Short Heat Wave (ML 12-1), and # 14 Bird E House (ML 15-1), draw in.
Texas Ryano has finished in the Trifecta in each of his last three starts, all at this class level. Unusual Taste steps up in class after showing a good closing kick in each of his last two starts. Atomic Rule enters this contest having won four of his last five starts; but this will be a pretty big step up the class ladder for Atomic Rule relative to his last three victories.
Surfcup has been working well since his last start three weeks back, which was his first taste of competition in over two years. Surfcup looks to be the lone early speed in this contest (and, yes, that is something to consider on turf, though not to the same degree as on dirt). If Surfcup can return to the form that he showed back in 2013, then he could be the one getting his picture taken today.
Aotearoa would normally be an "A" selection in this race based upon his recent form; but Aotearoa will be removing the blinkers today. The last three times that Aotearoa competed with blinkers off he finished seventh, seventh, and seventh; the time prior to that he was eased, and the time prior to that he finished sixth. So, needless to say, I'm not too optimistic about this move.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Ain't Misbehavin (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Eagle Rock (ML 8-1)
# 3 Cowtownmary (ML 8-1)
# 7 Formally Wild (ML 7-2)
# 10 Wicker Man (ML 9-2)
C's
None
# 2 Porchetto (ML 15-1) scratched; but not early enough to allow either of the Also Eligibles (# 13 Smokeshow City (ML 15-1) and # 14 Top Drawer (ML 4-1)) to draw in.
Ain't Misbehavin drops in for the lowest price tag of his career, after having taken the Show against more expensive two starts back. Eagle Rock has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure that was earned on a fast dirt track in this field.
Cowtownmary took the Show at this class level last time out and could be the speed of the speed. Formally Wild competes on a fast dirt track for the first time in his career; if his turf form holds, Formally Wild could find himself in the Winner's Circle today. Wicker Man won by daylight in his debut last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 4 with 5 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 1,4,5,6 with 1,3,5,7,10 $40.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 3,11 with 4 with 5 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 2,5,6 with 4 with 5 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,10 with 3,11 with 8 with 5 $2.00
Total: $50.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 8:31 EDT / 5:31 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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