Monday, September 7, 2015

9/7/15 Del Mar Pick Four - Preview

Happy Labor Day everyone, as we come to the final day of the Del Mar Summer Meet.  Juveniles dominate the final four races on the card; so be forewarned, we're almost definitely going over budget.  With that said, let's try to finish this meet on an up note as we yet again take a run at the Pick Four where the turf meets the surf.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 5 Do the Dance (Morning Line  6-1)
# 9 Red Stitch (ML 9-2)

B's

# 3 Sassy Ashley (ML 7-2)
# 4 Always Dangerous (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Eileen's Girl (ML 8-1)
# 8 Coronado Cool (ML 20-1)

# 12 Lynne's Legacy (No Line) is a program scratch.  In fact, none of the other Also Eligibles (# 11 Keira (ML 5-1); # 13 Two Step Glory (ML 12-1); and # 14 Dreamarcher (ML 4-1)) draw in either.

Do the Dance and Red Stitch look to be the best of the experienced runners.  Do the Dance adds the hood, so she may be too quick to catch; while Red Stitch closed better in her debut than it may appear in her running line.

Sassy Ashley is sired by English Channel, so the turf gene is definitely there.  Always Dangerous is trained by Phil D'Amato, who has been doing quite well with two year olds.  Eileen's Girl, sired by Medaglia d'Oro, made a sharp move in her last work.  Coronado Cool's Jockey / Trainer combo of Corey Nakatani and Eric Kruljac seem to do much better work together than they do apart.

RACE 8 - The Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Nyquist (ML 5-2)

B's

# 7 Blameitonthelaw (ML 3-1)

C's

None

The two Bob Baffert trained runners, # 1 Nightly News (ML 8-1) and # 4 Mt Veeder (ML 5-1) have been scratched.

Nyquist, trained by Doug O'Neill, is the only Graded Stakes winner in this field; indeed, Nyquist is the only runner in this field with multiple wins.  Blameitonthelaw, trained by John Sadler, was well clear while winning his debut last time out.

RACE 9 - (F) The Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Gomo (ML 3-1)

B's

# 4 Optimism and Hope (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 5 One Last Shot (ML 7-2)
# 9 Imflatoutsweet (ML 5-2)

C's

# 3 Jakaby Jade (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Find Joy (ML 15-1)

# 12 Sutton's Smile (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Gomo, Optimism And Hope (Ire), and Imflatoutsweet are the only three runners in this field with route wins.  One Last Shot has by far the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field, albeit one that was earned on dirt.  Jakaby Jade (GB) may improve in her North American debut with the added distance.  Find Joy has been working steady leading into this contest.

RACE 10 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Glory (ML 7-2)
# 4 Josephine's Moment (ML 10-1)
# 10 Unforgettable U (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 9 Discatsonthesquare (ML 12-1)

C's

# 6 Sensitively (ML 4-1)
# 14 Big Break (ML 20-1)

# 2 Exposure (NL); # 5 Hansarella (NL); # 12 Lost Bus (NL); and # 13 Campionessa Dolce (NL) are all program scratches.  # 7 Moyo Honey (20-1) has also been scratched.

Glory, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, drops in class after having competed against stakes company in her prior three starts.  Josephine's Moment just missed by less than a length at this class level last time out.  Unforgettable U raced above her conditions last time out and just missed winning by a nose.

Discatsonthesquare has finished in the Trifecta in each of her last three races, all at this class level.  Sensitively should improve with the return to dirt.  Big Break got to visit the Winner's Circle the last time that she competed at this class level.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 1 with 1,4,10 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,4,5,9 with 5,7 with 1,4,5,9 with 1,4,9,10 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 5 with 1 with 1,4,10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 3,10 with 1,4,10 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5,9 with 5 with 1 with 6,14 $2.00

Total: $81.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 8:18 EDT / 5:18 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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