RACE 8 - (F) The Chandelier (Grade 1) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Songbird (Morning Line 3-5)
B's
None
C's
# 7 Land Over Sea (ML 9-2)
# 1 Pretty N Cool (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
Songbird, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is two-for-two for her career, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante. The Beyer Speed Figures that Songbird has earned in each of her two career starts are better than anything that any other filly in this field has ever earned in their career. In the unlikely event that Songbird doesn't fire today, then Land Over Sea, who took the Show behind her in the Del Mar Debutante, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - (F) The Rodeo Drive (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 8 Hard Not to Like (ML 3-1)
B's
# 9 Sharla Rae (ML 8-1)
# 11 Fanticola (ML 5-1)
C's
None
# 5 Three Hearts (ML 15-1) has been scratched.
Hard Not to Like, winner of five of her last six, three of which were Grade 1 events, is the clear class of this field. The only concern is that there may not be enough pace for her to chase, as Hard Not to Like prefers to show up at wire at the last possible moment (note that only one of those five previously mentioned victories was by a margin of greater than a length).
Sharla Rae tries older horses for the first time; but if she can repeat her effort in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, then she'll be a force to be reckoned with here. Fanticola is the lone speed here, so look for Jockey Joe Talamo to try to steal this one on the front end.
RACE 10 - The Awesome Again (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Hoppertunity (ML 3-1)
# 8 Bayern (ML 5-2)
B's
# 1 Hard Aces (ML 4-1)
# 2 Sammy Mandeville (ML 10-1)
# 6 Imperative (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Hoppertunity has been Mister Consistent, earning Beyer Speed Figures within two points of each other over his past four races. Hoppertunity has been good of late but not quite good enough; perhaps that changes today.
If Bayern is ever going to win another Grade 1 contest, then this is it. Bayern should be able to get clear early in this field, as the only other entrant that has shown good early speed in his career is # 7 Smooth Roller (ML 6-1). But even with Tyler Baze on his back, I don't think that Smooth Roller is going to be quick enough to keep pace with Bayern in the early stages of this contest.
Hard Aces will be looking to return to the form that he showed two starts back when he won the Grade 1 Gold Cup over this main track. Sammy Mandeville may be outclassed here; but the Beyers that he's been earning fit well with the contenders here, and he's almost certain to go off at high odds. Imperative could improve going second off the layoff for Trainer Richard Baltas.
I haven't used any of the three runners coming out of the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes, including the winner of that contest, # 3 Point Piper (ML 8-1). While the Beyer Speed Figure for that event fits well here, in my opinion this company is just too classy for those exiting that contest. To back up my stance, consider that the opening mile for the ten furlong Grade 1 Pacific Classic, in which several of these entrants competed, was run in faster time than the entirety of the eight furlong H. F. Brubaker. So if I'm wrong and one of the three horses exiting the H. F. Brubaker should win today, then this ticket is going down in flames.
RACE 11 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Recalibrating (ML 4-1)
# 7 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Lucky Bryan (ML 12-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 20-1)
# 8 Osceola Pond (ML 9-2)
# 9 Canada (ML 7-2)
# 10 Pacific Prince (ML 10-1)
C's
# 4 William Crotty (ML 20-1)
Neither Also Eligible, # 13 Aztec Warrior (ML 6-1) nor # 14 Dressed in Hermes, draw in; so they'll be in the barn watching to see if the Mets and/or Dodgers can clinch today.
As you can tell by the number of runners that we're using, I think this one is pretty wide open.
Recalibrating took the Place at this class level in his debut two starts back. Strong Values showed late interest in his debut last time out, and may benefit from the change in rider.
Lucky Bryan may improve with the stretch out and surface switch. Unapologetic had a sharp work over the main track earlier this week. Osceola Pond took the Place on the grass at this level two starts back.
Canada is by Giant's Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, so I expect him to improve upon his debut turf effort. Pacific Prince showed good early speed in his debut last time out. William Crotty is by Uncle Mo, whose progeny have done well the first time that they've tried the grass (albeit in a small size sample).
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $4.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8,9,11 with 1,2,5,6,8 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 $52.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with 5,8 with 1,7 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 8 with 5,8 with 4 $1.00
Total: $59.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:00 EDT / 4:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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