Race 6 - # 9 Diversy Harbor (Final Odds 5.50) - No Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Chelios (1.50*) - "A" Selection
Race 8 - The Clocker's Corner - # 7 Lakerville (8.80) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 1 Fit to Rule (6.80) - No Selection
We rolled the dice with our single "A" in the opening leg and we crapped out, as # 3 Divine Way (3.90) raced mid-pack throughout, never getting involved in the outcome; though she did beat Post Time Favorite # 11 Pragmatical (2.20*) to the wire by almost two lengths. Race 7 was a nice reminder of what a formful race looks like, as our three "A" selections filled out a Trifecta that paid $31.30 for a buck. Lakerville is now a perfect two-for-two charging down the hill; while the finale saw our six selections occupy positions number two through seven inclusive in the final order of finish for the eleven horse field.
So our day ended quickly without much suspense, as our play died early; much, much too early. There were no real surprises in the sequence, as all winners were haveable; the problem was, we didn't have them.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 9 / 1 / 7 / 1 were rewarded with a payout of $819.05 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 26, 2014
1/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
There's a multi-day carryover in the Pick Six at Santa Anita Sunday, and that usually translates into more funds making their way into the other pools as bettors support and leverage their Pick Six opinions. There were a couple of ways I could have gone with today's Late Pick Four; but I think I've found the right combination that will give us the best opportunity to cash. Anyway, here's how I see the final four races on today's card at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Divine Way (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
None
Nothing like putting it all on the line in the very first leg. Divine Way has taken the Place at this level in her last two starts, both turf sprints, the most recent down the hill. Divine Way also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field. If she can run back to the Beyer Speed Figures that she earned in either of her last two performances, then she should win handily today.
I didn't add any "C" contenders in this leg; not just because of my confidence in Divine Way's ability to win, but also because I couldn't see any legitimate way to separate the many capable first time runners in today's field. That is to say, if Divine Way was not in this field, this would be a race where I would be looking for the "ALL" button. And while I have done tickets in the past (and will probably do in the future) where I've had one "A" selection and "ALL" (or nearly "ALL") as my "C" selections, I decided that I'd rather include a few more "A's" in the later stages of this ticket than do that here. Was that the right way to play it? Well, we'll know for sure in a few hours.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Chelios (ML 9-5)
# 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Chelios, Rprettyboyfloyd, and Sawyer's Hill are all second time starters that finished in the money at this level with Beyers well within par for this class. Both Chelios and Rprettyboyfloyd earned their Speed Figures over this main track, with Chelios going six furlongs while Rprettyboyfloyd went seven. Sawyer's Hill earned his Speed Figure over the synthetic surface at Del Mar, but he has been working well over the main track.
Again, no "C" selections in this one. There are two Bob Baffert first time starters going here; Trainer Peter Miller has a second time starter going that was previously trained by Dale Romans; and Trainer Ron Ellis, who normally does not do well with debut runners, has secured the services of Jockey Mike Smith for the first timer that he has running in this one, suggesting that his entry may be live; so, as with the prior leg, it's hard to see using any one of those without using them all. So for this one we're just going to stick with our three "A's" and play our hand with them.
RACE 8 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Sweet Swap (ML 7-2)
# 4 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Drill (ML 8-1)
# 6 El Commodore (ML 7-2)
# 7 Lakerville (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ankeny Hill (ML 15-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 3-1)
This stakes race is restricted to runners four years old and upward which have not won a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2013.
Sweet Swap is making a move up the class ladder, but his defeat of Boat Trip last time out suggests that he's ready to compete at this level. Boat Trip just missed by a nose of winning the Grade 3 Eddie D charging down this hill back in September. Boat Trip's late running style should prove useful today.
Drill is another that may be well served today by a late running style. Drill will be getting some much needed class relief, though it's not clear that the drop will end his losing streak. Lakerville returns from a vacation of over a year; but he won his career debut, which suggests that he can win off the bench; and Trainer Barry Abrams has shown the ability to win with those that have been away for an extended period. Note also that Lakerville won that debut by charging down this hill.
El Commodore (ridden by Gary Stevens), Ankeny Hill (ridden by Edwin Maldonado), and Ready for More (ridden by Mike Smith) project to be the early pace setters. If any of the above three jockeys can get their runner to relax, then they will be in ideal position to charge past the other two and cross the wire before the closers can hit their best stride.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Broker Brett (ML 9-2)
# 4 On My Honor (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Smoke (ML 9-2)
# 9 Warren's Tyler S. (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Mary Helen's Storm (ML 6-1)
# 6 World Famous Sam T (ML 6-1)
Broker Brett gets some much needed class relief, as well as a change of rider to Corey Nakatani. On My Honor took the Place at a higher rung up the class ladder last time out; if he can run to the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that one, he should win today. Tribal Smoke has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. If Tribal Smoke gets loose on the lead, this race becomes a battle for Place. Warren's Tyler S. took the Place at this level last time out. Warren's Tyler S. broke his maiden over this track.
Mary Helen's Storm took the Place at this level his last time out, his first try against winners. World Famous Sam T. tries winners for the first time today after winning his debut last month.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 2,4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 3,6,7,8,9 with 2,4,8,9 $30.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 5,6 $6.00
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Divine Way (Morning Line 7-2)
C’s
None
Nothing like putting it all on the line in the very first leg. Divine Way has taken the Place at this level in her last two starts, both turf sprints, the most recent down the hill. Divine Way also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field. If she can run back to the Beyer Speed Figures that she earned in either of her last two performances, then she should win handily today.
I didn't add any "C" contenders in this leg; not just because of my confidence in Divine Way's ability to win, but also because I couldn't see any legitimate way to separate the many capable first time runners in today's field. That is to say, if Divine Way was not in this field, this would be a race where I would be looking for the "ALL" button. And while I have done tickets in the past (and will probably do in the future) where I've had one "A" selection and "ALL" (or nearly "ALL") as my "C" selections, I decided that I'd rather include a few more "A's" in the later stages of this ticket than do that here. Was that the right way to play it? Well, we'll know for sure in a few hours.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Chelios (ML 9-5)
# 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Chelios, Rprettyboyfloyd, and Sawyer's Hill are all second time starters that finished in the money at this level with Beyers well within par for this class. Both Chelios and Rprettyboyfloyd earned their Speed Figures over this main track, with Chelios going six furlongs while Rprettyboyfloyd went seven. Sawyer's Hill earned his Speed Figure over the synthetic surface at Del Mar, but he has been working well over the main track.
Again, no "C" selections in this one. There are two Bob Baffert first time starters going here; Trainer Peter Miller has a second time starter going that was previously trained by Dale Romans; and Trainer Ron Ellis, who normally does not do well with debut runners, has secured the services of Jockey Mike Smith for the first timer that he has running in this one, suggesting that his entry may be live; so, as with the prior leg, it's hard to see using any one of those without using them all. So for this one we're just going to stick with our three "A's" and play our hand with them.
RACE 8 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Sweet Swap (ML 7-2)
# 4 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 3 Drill (ML 8-1)
# 6 El Commodore (ML 7-2)
# 7 Lakerville (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ankeny Hill (ML 15-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 3-1)
This stakes race is restricted to runners four years old and upward which have not won a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2013.
Sweet Swap is making a move up the class ladder, but his defeat of Boat Trip last time out suggests that he's ready to compete at this level. Boat Trip just missed by a nose of winning the Grade 3 Eddie D charging down this hill back in September. Boat Trip's late running style should prove useful today.
Drill is another that may be well served today by a late running style. Drill will be getting some much needed class relief, though it's not clear that the drop will end his losing streak. Lakerville returns from a vacation of over a year; but he won his career debut, which suggests that he can win off the bench; and Trainer Barry Abrams has shown the ability to win with those that have been away for an extended period. Note also that Lakerville won that debut by charging down this hill.
El Commodore (ridden by Gary Stevens), Ankeny Hill (ridden by Edwin Maldonado), and Ready for More (ridden by Mike Smith) project to be the early pace setters. If any of the above three jockeys can get their runner to relax, then they will be in ideal position to charge past the other two and cross the wire before the closers can hit their best stride.
RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Broker Brett (ML 9-2)
# 4 On My Honor (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Smoke (ML 9-2)
# 9 Warren's Tyler S. (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 5 Mary Helen's Storm (ML 6-1)
# 6 World Famous Sam T (ML 6-1)
Broker Brett gets some much needed class relief, as well as a change of rider to Corey Nakatani. On My Honor took the Place at a higher rung up the class ladder last time out; if he can run to the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that one, he should win today. Tribal Smoke has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. If Tribal Smoke gets loose on the lead, this race becomes a battle for Place. Warren's Tyler S. took the Place at this level last time out. Warren's Tyler S. broke his maiden over this track.
Mary Helen's Storm took the Place at this level his last time out, his first try against winners. World Famous Sam T. tries winners for the first time today after winning his debut last month.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 2,4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 3,6,7,8,9 with 2,4,8,9 $30.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 5,6 $6.00
Total: $60.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 25, 2014
1/25/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 7 - The California Cup Oaks - # 2 Susans Express (Final Odds 65.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - The California Cup Sprint - # 10 Big Macher (2.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The California Cup Turf Classic - # 6 Wewinnin (21.40) - No Selection
Race 10 - The California Cup Derby - # 7 California Chrome (2.50) - "C" Selection
Nothing like having a hundred and thirty-two dollar horse blow up your tickets in the very first leg; though we did have the small (very small) consolation of having one of our "A" selections, # 14 Anniversary Kitty (6.40) take the Place. Likewise in the third leg, as we saw one of "A" selections, # 11 Stoney Fleece (10.50) take the Place behind the forty-four dollar winner, Wewinnin. But Place finishes don't count, and the net result is our Pick Four play goes down in flames.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So we fail to get a single "A" selection home; but so it goes on another wild day at Santa Anita, where there was not just one, not just two, but three winners on the card that paid more to Win than Wewinnin did in Race 9. Needless to say, there will be a double carryover in the Pick Six going into Sunday's card. Meanwhile, those who were fortunate enough to have played the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 6 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $11,233.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 8 - The California Cup Sprint - # 10 Big Macher (2.10) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - The California Cup Turf Classic - # 6 Wewinnin (21.40) - No Selection
Race 10 - The California Cup Derby - # 7 California Chrome (2.50) - "C" Selection
Nothing like having a hundred and thirty-two dollar horse blow up your tickets in the very first leg; though we did have the small (very small) consolation of having one of our "A" selections, # 14 Anniversary Kitty (6.40) take the Place. Likewise in the third leg, as we saw one of "A" selections, # 11 Stoney Fleece (10.50) take the Place behind the forty-four dollar winner, Wewinnin. But Place finishes don't count, and the net result is our Pick Four play goes down in flames.
Oh well; onto the next race.
So we fail to get a single "A" selection home; but so it goes on another wild day at Santa Anita, where there was not just one, not just two, but three winners on the card that paid more to Win than Wewinnin did in Race 9. Needless to say, there will be a double carryover in the Pick Six going into Sunday's card. Meanwhile, those who were fortunate enough to have played the correct Late Pick Four sequence of 2 / 10 / 6 / 7 were rewarded with a payout of $11,233.80 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/27/14 Sunland Park Late Pick Three - Results
Race 9 - # 2 Silent Purpose (Final Odds 3.50) - "A" Selection
Race 10 - The El Paso Times Handicap - # 1 Ramona's Wildcat (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 2 Dazzletown (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Silent Purpose ran down # 10 Hoop N Hollar (5.60) and then won the stretch battle against # 3 Grande Hadley (12.20). Ramon's Wildcat proved to be all that our good buddy Jeff G touted her to be and more, winning easily by almost ten lengths.
The Will Pays going into Race 11 for the four horses to which we were alive:
$.50 Will Pays:
# 1 Riddle Star - $141.00
# 2 Dazzletown - $7.30
# 4 Cliff’snaughtygirl - $282.00
# 10 Frequent Fame - $14.45
Dazzletown won the stretch duel in the finale by a neck over our other "A" selection in that event, # 10 Frequent Fame (1.80); those two were over ten lengths clear of the Show horse, # 4 Cliff'snaughtygirl (27.10). So we cash and we profit, as we had the correct Pick Three sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 five times; thus collecting $36.50 against our $16.00 investment, for a net gain of $20.50. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 10 - The El Paso Times Handicap - # 1 Ramona's Wildcat (0.40*) - "A" Selection
Race 11 - # 2 Dazzletown (0.90*) - "A" Selection
Silent Purpose ran down # 10 Hoop N Hollar (5.60) and then won the stretch battle against # 3 Grande Hadley (12.20). Ramon's Wildcat proved to be all that our good buddy Jeff G touted her to be and more, winning easily by almost ten lengths.
The Will Pays going into Race 11 for the four horses to which we were alive:
$.50 Will Pays:
# 1 Riddle Star - $141.00
# 2 Dazzletown - $7.30
# 4 Cliff’snaughtygirl - $282.00
# 10 Frequent Fame - $14.45
Dazzletown won the stretch duel in the finale by a neck over our other "A" selection in that event, # 10 Frequent Fame (1.80); those two were over ten lengths clear of the Show horse, # 4 Cliff'snaughtygirl (27.10). So we cash and we profit, as we had the correct Pick Three sequence of 2 / 1 / 2 five times; thus collecting $36.50 against our $16.00 investment, for a net gain of $20.50. May God bless us as we spend our winnings.
Onto the next race!
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/25/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
It's Sunshine Millions California Cup Day at Santa Anita today. Since we're running a little behind here, let's just get right to it.
RACE 7 - [S](F) The California Cup Oaks $200k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Kukaluka (Morning Line 12-1)
# 14 Anniversary Kitty (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 4 Alasharchy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sprague River (ML 9-2)
# 13 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 7-2)
Alasharchy and Kukaluka ran one-two at this distance up at Golden Gate Fields in November. I give the nod to Kukaluka today because I think this one goes to a horse coming off the pace. Anniversary Kitty is making just her second career start; but the debut win was solid and the pedigree is there. Sprague River looks to improve with the added distance. Swiss Lake Yodeler is a two-time stakes winner, but this will be her grass debut.
RACE 8 - [S] The California Cup Sprint $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Cyclometer (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Follini (ML 12-1)
# 8 Kate's Event (ML 6-1)
# 10 Big Macher (ML 3-1)
Cyclometer won an open company stakes sprinting over this track earlier this month. Mike Smith rode that day and will be in Cyclometer's saddle again today. Expect Big Macher and Follini to be in front early, with Cyclometer not too far behind. If it all falls apart Kate's Event, who likes to win here, will pick up the pieces late.
RACE 9 - [S] The California Cup Turf Classic $250k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Summer Hit (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tiz a Minister (ML 6-1)
# 11 Stoney Fleece (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 9 China Prince (ML 12-1)
# 14 Maybe Tuesday (ML 8-1)
Summer Hit has an impressive resume of stake wins, but the majority of those have come off the grass. Tiz a Minister has the pedigree to shine here despite being a turf maiden. Stoney Fleece is a tough competitor that should be in the mix at the end.
RACE 10 - [S] The California Cup Derby $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Life Is a Joy (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tamarando (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 7 California Chrome (ML 5-2)
# 11 Better Bet (ML 20-1)
Life Is a Joy is a stakes winner against open company on dirt. Tamarando is a Grade 1 winner, but on plastic. California Chrome has won two state restricted stakes, but both were on plastic. Better Bet has a stakes win over this track.
That's the analysis. Play it Crist style and the tickets should look like this:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,8,13 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 1,8,10 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 9,14 with 2,4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 7,11 $6.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 7 - [S](F) The California Cup Oaks $200k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 7 Kukaluka (Morning Line 12-1)
# 14 Anniversary Kitty (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 4 Alasharchy (ML 6-1)
# 8 Sprague River (ML 9-2)
# 13 Swiss Lake Yodeler (ML 7-2)
Alasharchy and Kukaluka ran one-two at this distance up at Golden Gate Fields in November. I give the nod to Kukaluka today because I think this one goes to a horse coming off the pace. Anniversary Kitty is making just her second career start; but the debut win was solid and the pedigree is there. Sprague River looks to improve with the added distance. Swiss Lake Yodeler is a two-time stakes winner, but this will be her grass debut.
RACE 8 - [S] The California Cup Sprint $125k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Cyclometer (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Follini (ML 12-1)
# 8 Kate's Event (ML 6-1)
# 10 Big Macher (ML 3-1)
Cyclometer won an open company stakes sprinting over this track earlier this month. Mike Smith rode that day and will be in Cyclometer's saddle again today. Expect Big Macher and Follini to be in front early, with Cyclometer not too far behind. If it all falls apart Kate's Event, who likes to win here, will pick up the pieces late.
RACE 9 - [S] The California Cup Turf Classic $250k - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Summer Hit (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tiz a Minister (ML 6-1)
# 11 Stoney Fleece (ML 8-1)
C’s
# 9 China Prince (ML 12-1)
# 14 Maybe Tuesday (ML 8-1)
Summer Hit has an impressive resume of stake wins, but the majority of those have come off the grass. Tiz a Minister has the pedigree to shine here despite being a turf maiden. Stoney Fleece is a tough competitor that should be in the mix at the end.
RACE 10 - [S] The California Cup Derby $250k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Life Is a Joy (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tamarando (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 7 California Chrome (ML 5-2)
# 11 Better Bet (ML 20-1)
Life Is a Joy is a stakes winner against open company on dirt. Tamarando is a Grade 1 winner, but on plastic. California Chrome has won two state restricted stakes, but both were on plastic. Better Bet has a stakes win over this track.
That's the analysis. Play it Crist style and the tickets should look like this:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,8,13 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 1,8,10 with 1,8,11 with 2,4 $18.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 9,14 with 2,4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 7,14 with 6 with 1,8,11 with 7,11 $6.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EST / 3:04 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/27/14 Sunland Park Late Pick Three - Preview
So I get an email last week from my good buddy Jeff G (whose comments you occasionally see in this blog) telling me that Ramona's Wildcat is making her second career start the 27th at Sunland Park. Jeff tells me that he saw this Louisiana bred filly break her maiden in her debut in December and thinks that she might be worth keeping an eye on. Sure enough, that December outing was, in the understated words of the chart caller, an "impressive debut", as Ramona's Wildcat (Final Odds 1.40*) left the rest of the field in the New Mexico dust, winning by over eight lengths. So having been tipped to this three year old filly by Wildcat Heir out of an Indian Charlie mare, I decided that I'd take a look at the races on either side Ramona's Wildcat's event today and see if we can click on a multi-race wager.
RACE 9 - [S] Clm $5k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Silent Purpose (Morning Line 6-1)
# 6 It's Tera (ML 4-1)
# 12 Wild N Precocius (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
This race is restricted to New Mexico bred horses four years old and upward, which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won two races since July 25, 2013 (six months ago)
As I type this, Sunland Park has not yet announced their program changes for Saturday. As Wild N Precocius is second on the Also Eligible List, there's a good chance that he may not draw in. If he does draw in he looks to enjoy a clear class edge in this field, having won twice in non-state restricted events in his last four outings. Also note that Wild N Precocius' second win in that sequence was July 14, 2013, less than two weeks before the six month cutoff. In his fifteen career starts at Sunland Park, Wild N Precocius has finished in the Trifecta ten times. EDIT - Wild N Precocius has been scratched.
I think it's fair to say that Silent Purpose needed that last race coming off the layoff; moving a couple of rungs down the class ladder should help, as should the shortening in distance by half furlong. Note the pattern in his October 6 and November 6 races of last year: coming off a layoff, Silent Purpose flashed early speed in the October outing before fading and finishing well out of the money. Next time out, cutting a sixteenth of a mile off the distance, Silent Purpose crossed the wire first. Silent Purpose was victorious his only other time trying today's distance, and Trainer Gary Cross plays the claiming game well, racking up a .18 Winning Percentage in claiming contests, with a positive ROI.
It's Tera makes his second start off the layoff for Trainer Jose R Gonzalez Jr, who wins almost a third of the time with such. A concern is that It's Tera has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but he does like the Sunland Park main track, as all three of his career wins have come here.
RACE 10 - (F) The El Paso Times Handicap $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 7 Idling (ML 5-1)
In addition to all we said above about Ramona's Wildcat, she possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. The Beyer Speed Figure Ramona's Wildcat earned in her debut towers over anything any other entrant in this field has run, and she will once again have the meet's top rider, Ry Eikleberry on her back.
So why the presence of a "C" selection here? Two reasons; first, Ramona's Wildcat drew Post Position 1, which has not been faring well at this meet, winning fewer than nine percent of sprints. Second, we are talking about a three year old filly, a species designed to break your heart. Therefore I decided to show some caution here and include Idling, the invader from Arizona who already has a stakes win under her belt.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dazzletown (ML 5-2)
# 10 Frequent Fame (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Riddle Star (ML 5-1)
# 4 Cliff'snaughtygirl (ML 15-1)
This race is for fillies and mares four years old and upward which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won a race since October 25, 2013 (three months ago)
Dazzletown has been camera shy, getting her picture taken just twice in two dozen career contests. But most of those events have come against much more expensive stock; and she has been competitive, finishing in the Trifecta in nearly half of those twenty-four career starts. Note that the Trainer Justin Evans / Jockey Ry Eikleberry combo has a Winning Percentage above .30.
Frequent Fame has the most career wins in this field, the most recent coming at Del Mar back in August. Riddle Star seems to have good tactical speed; she may find herself leading the pack early, as there doesn't seem to be much pace in this one. Cliff'snaughtygirl just sneaks in under the conditions wire, having five career wins, with the last one coming at Albuquerque on October 25.
So that's the analysis. Again, keep in mind that Sunland Park has not yet posted today's scratches for their thoroughbred races. EDIT: The scratches have been posted, and Wild N Precocius did not draw in. The tickets below have been adjusted accordingly. I'll be playing all the "A" selections on one ticket for two bucks, and then I'll put all selections (both "A's" and "C's") on a fifty cent ticket. So what we'll have is:
All A Entries
$2.00 P3: 2, 6 with 1 with 2, 10 $8.00
All A's with All C's
$0.50 P3: 2, 6 with 1, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 10 $8.00
Post Time for Race 9 @ Sunland Park is scheduled for 5:38 EST / 2:38 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 9 - [S] Clm $5k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Silent Purpose (Morning Line 6-1)
# 6 It's Tera (ML 4-1)
# 12 Wild N Precocius (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
This race is restricted to New Mexico bred horses four years old and upward, which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won two races since July 25, 2013 (six months ago)
As I type this, Sunland Park has not yet announced their program changes for Saturday. As Wild N Precocius is second on the Also Eligible List, there's a good chance that he may not draw in. If he does draw in he looks to enjoy a clear class edge in this field, having won twice in non-state restricted events in his last four outings. Also note that Wild N Precocius' second win in that sequence was July 14, 2013, less than two weeks before the six month cutoff. In his fifteen career starts at Sunland Park, Wild N Precocius has finished in the Trifecta ten times. EDIT - Wild N Precocius has been scratched.
I think it's fair to say that Silent Purpose needed that last race coming off the layoff; moving a couple of rungs down the class ladder should help, as should the shortening in distance by half furlong. Note the pattern in his October 6 and November 6 races of last year: coming off a layoff, Silent Purpose flashed early speed in the October outing before fading and finishing well out of the money. Next time out, cutting a sixteenth of a mile off the distance, Silent Purpose crossed the wire first. Silent Purpose was victorious his only other time trying today's distance, and Trainer Gary Cross plays the claiming game well, racking up a .18 Winning Percentage in claiming contests, with a positive ROI.
It's Tera makes his second start off the layoff for Trainer Jose R Gonzalez Jr, who wins almost a third of the time with such. A concern is that It's Tera has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but he does like the Sunland Park main track, as all three of his career wins have come here.
RACE 10 - (F) The El Paso Times Handicap $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 7 Idling (ML 5-1)
In addition to all we said above about Ramona's Wildcat, she possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. The Beyer Speed Figure Ramona's Wildcat earned in her debut towers over anything any other entrant in this field has run, and she will once again have the meet's top rider, Ry Eikleberry on her back.
So why the presence of a "C" selection here? Two reasons; first, Ramona's Wildcat drew Post Position 1, which has not been faring well at this meet, winning fewer than nine percent of sprints. Second, we are talking about a three year old filly, a species designed to break your heart. Therefore I decided to show some caution here and include Idling, the invader from Arizona who already has a stakes win under her belt.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dazzletown (ML 5-2)
# 10 Frequent Fame (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Riddle Star (ML 5-1)
# 4 Cliff'snaughtygirl (ML 15-1)
This race is for fillies and mares four years old and upward which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won a race since October 25, 2013 (three months ago)
Dazzletown has been camera shy, getting her picture taken just twice in two dozen career contests. But most of those events have come against much more expensive stock; and she has been competitive, finishing in the Trifecta in nearly half of those twenty-four career starts. Note that the Trainer Justin Evans / Jockey Ry Eikleberry combo has a Winning Percentage above .30.
Frequent Fame has the most career wins in this field, the most recent coming at Del Mar back in August. Riddle Star seems to have good tactical speed; she may find herself leading the pack early, as there doesn't seem to be much pace in this one. Cliff'snaughtygirl just sneaks in under the conditions wire, having five career wins, with the last one coming at Albuquerque on October 25.
So that's the analysis. Again, keep in mind that Sunland Park has not yet posted today's scratches for their thoroughbred races. EDIT: The scratches have been posted, and Wild N Precocius did not draw in. The tickets below have been adjusted accordingly. I'll be playing all the "A" selections on one ticket for two bucks, and then I'll put all selections (both "A's" and "C's") on a fifty cent ticket. So what we'll have is:
All A Entries
$2.00 P3: 2, 6 with 1 with 2, 10 $8.00
All A's with All C's
$0.50 P3: 2, 6 with 1, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 10 $8.00
Post Time for Race 9 @ Sunland Park is scheduled for 5:38 EST / 2:38 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Monday, January 20, 2014
1/20/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Macias (Final Odds 6.60) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 9 Wonderful Lie (17.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Mr. Ornery (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Grammy Times Six (9.50) - "C" Selection
Big Note (Ire) (9.70) came the closest to giving us an "A" Selection winner, leading the field all the way to the wire in Race 6 before losing by a neck to Macias. Wonderful Lie is a perfect example as to how all race horses should be named, as she was sired by Bedford Falls and is out of Flying Alibi. Mr. Ornery won in his first ever try charging down the hill, while Grammy Times Six made the point that one turn contests was where she belonged all along.
So we failed to get any of our ten "A" Selections home; indeed, in half the races we failed to get any selection home. Still, it's hard to be too critical of our picks when chaos was the order of day. How chaotic was Monday's Late Pick Four? Not only did the Post Time Favorite fail to win any of the four legs; in none of the four legs was the Post Time Favorite even able to finish inside the Superfecta. So when order has gone and chaos rules, there's little to do except shrug your shoulders and move on. Or, to put it in more familiar terms:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 9 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $7,549.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 9 Wonderful Lie (17.20) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 4 Mr. Ornery (6.50) - No Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Grammy Times Six (9.50) - "C" Selection
Big Note (Ire) (9.70) came the closest to giving us an "A" Selection winner, leading the field all the way to the wire in Race 6 before losing by a neck to Macias. Wonderful Lie is a perfect example as to how all race horses should be named, as she was sired by Bedford Falls and is out of Flying Alibi. Mr. Ornery won in his first ever try charging down the hill, while Grammy Times Six made the point that one turn contests was where she belonged all along.
So we failed to get any of our ten "A" Selections home; indeed, in half the races we failed to get any selection home. Still, it's hard to be too critical of our picks when chaos was the order of day. How chaotic was Monday's Late Pick Four? Not only did the Post Time Favorite fail to win any of the four legs; in none of the four legs was the Post Time Favorite even able to finish inside the Superfecta. So when order has gone and chaos rules, there's little to do except shrug your shoulders and move on. Or, to put it in more familiar terms:
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 9 / 4 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $7,549.20 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/20/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
"Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
So as we come to the final day of the holiday three day weekend we keep our attention focused on Southern California; but today we'll be hunting late rather than early as we make our play to capture the proper sequence to the Late Pick Four. And focus we must; as the fields are literally full today, with (as I write this) a dozen scheduled to go to post in three of the four legs, and eleven scheduled to leave the gate in the other.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Relentless Heat (Morning Line 10-1)
# 4 Insideontheoutside (ML 7-2)
# 6 Big Note (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Dixieland Blues (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 7 Macias (ML 8-1)
Relentless Heat has done his best racing when charging down the hill, and his late running style looks like a good fit in this field which sports a lot of early speed. Insideontheoutside turns back in distance for a trainer (Peter Miller) who wins nearly one out of every four when making that move. Big Note (Ire) won at this level last time out by wiring the field; if he can handle the hill, there's no reason why he can't do that again today. Dixieland Blues was getting to Big Note late last time out; perhaps the extra half furlong makes the difference today. Macias is second only to Relentless Heat in career victories on the Santa Anita grass.
RACE 7 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Yana (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Capers N Wine (ML 7-2)
# 14 Warrenspoweroflove (ML 6-1)
Yana possesses the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field, a number earned in her career debut over this main track. If she runs that race again today, she wins. Note also that Yana possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field by a comfortable margin. Having Mike Smith on board adds to the appeal.
Capers N Wine makes the switch from grass to dirt for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately one out of every five times (with a positive ROI) he has a runner make this move. Warrenspoweroflove draws in from the Also Eligibles; the Beyer he earned in his debut suggests that Warrenspoweroflove can handle the upgrade in class.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Candy's Surprise (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pulpit's Express (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Pulla Train (ML 6-1)
# 9 Waitwaitdonttellme (ML 5-1)
# 12 Bro's Bro (ML 9-2)
Candy's Surprise and Bro's Bro finished one-two last month at this approximate level last time out, albeit on the flats at Hollywood Park. While the margin in that one was close at the wire (less than a length's difference) I'm moving Bro's Bro down to a "C" selection here as I don't think his preferred running style works best with the hill.
Pulpit's Express shows a form that should benefit from the turnback in distance. If he can run to the Beyers that he was posting when routing last Summer, than Pulpit's Express should be right in the mix at the wire.
Pulla Train ships back to SoCal after scooping up a pair of wins in Arizona. Trainer Eric Kruljac sports a .27 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Waitwaitdonttellme has finished in the money in four of his five career starts on grass; the question is how he'll handle the turnback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Lovely Instinct (ML 6-1)
# 8 Perched (ML 9-2)
# 12 Singleinthelast (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Mean Emma Jean (ML 15-1)
# 6 Grammy Times Six (ML 6-1)
# 7 Yesterday Sings (ML 8-1)
# 9 Katy's Plum (ML 7-2)
Lovely Instinct and Perched are tied with the best career Beyer in this field on a fast dirt track. Perched is making a move down the class ladder, while Singleinthelast drops in for a tag for the first time in her career.
Mean Emma Jean tries real dirt for the first time while going out for a trainer (Mark Glatt) with a .23 Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming contests. Grammy Times Six flashed early speed while going around two turns; her Tomlinson Rating suggests that she's better suited to today's distance. Yesterday Sings makes her second career start for Trainer Phillip D'Amato, who is one for five with such. Katy's Plum returns from a seven month layoff and gets Bejarano in the saddle.
I'm investing much more in today's play than I normally do; but I feel that it's justified with the larger fields. I'll be playing it Crist style; meaning that the tickets will look like this:
All A Entries
1,4,6,11 with 3 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $24.00
So as we come to the final day of the holiday three day weekend we keep our attention focused on Southern California; but today we'll be hunting late rather than early as we make our play to capture the proper sequence to the Late Pick Four. And focus we must; as the fields are literally full today, with (as I write this) a dozen scheduled to go to post in three of the four legs, and eleven scheduled to leave the gate in the other.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Relentless Heat (Morning Line 10-1)
# 4 Insideontheoutside (ML 7-2)
# 6 Big Note (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Dixieland Blues (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 7 Macias (ML 8-1)
Relentless Heat has done his best racing when charging down the hill, and his late running style looks like a good fit in this field which sports a lot of early speed. Insideontheoutside turns back in distance for a trainer (Peter Miller) who wins nearly one out of every four when making that move. Big Note (Ire) won at this level last time out by wiring the field; if he can handle the hill, there's no reason why he can't do that again today. Dixieland Blues was getting to Big Note late last time out; perhaps the extra half furlong makes the difference today. Macias is second only to Relentless Heat in career victories on the Santa Anita grass.
RACE 7 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Yana (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Capers N Wine (ML 7-2)
# 14 Warrenspoweroflove (ML 6-1)
Yana possesses the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field, a number earned in her career debut over this main track. If she runs that race again today, she wins. Note also that Yana possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field by a comfortable margin. Having Mike Smith on board adds to the appeal.
Capers N Wine makes the switch from grass to dirt for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately one out of every five times (with a positive ROI) he has a runner make this move. Warrenspoweroflove draws in from the Also Eligibles; the Beyer he earned in his debut suggests that Warrenspoweroflove can handle the upgrade in class.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Candy's Surprise (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pulpit's Express (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Pulla Train (ML 6-1)
# 9 Waitwaitdonttellme (ML 5-1)
# 12 Bro's Bro (ML 9-2)
Candy's Surprise and Bro's Bro finished one-two last month at this approximate level last time out, albeit on the flats at Hollywood Park. While the margin in that one was close at the wire (less than a length's difference) I'm moving Bro's Bro down to a "C" selection here as I don't think his preferred running style works best with the hill.
Pulpit's Express shows a form that should benefit from the turnback in distance. If he can run to the Beyers that he was posting when routing last Summer, than Pulpit's Express should be right in the mix at the wire.
Pulla Train ships back to SoCal after scooping up a pair of wins in Arizona. Trainer Eric Kruljac sports a .27 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Waitwaitdonttellme has finished in the money in four of his five career starts on grass; the question is how he'll handle the turnback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Lovely Instinct (ML 6-1)
# 8 Perched (ML 9-2)
# 12 Singleinthelast (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Mean Emma Jean (ML 15-1)
# 6 Grammy Times Six (ML 6-1)
# 7 Yesterday Sings (ML 8-1)
# 9 Katy's Plum (ML 7-2)
Lovely Instinct and Perched are tied with the best career Beyer in this field on a fast dirt track. Perched is making a move down the class ladder, while Singleinthelast drops in for a tag for the first time in her career.
Mean Emma Jean tries real dirt for the first time while going out for a trainer (Mark Glatt) with a .23 Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming contests. Grammy Times Six flashed early speed while going around two turns; her Tomlinson Rating suggests that she's better suited to today's distance. Yesterday Sings makes her second career start for Trainer Phillip D'Amato, who is one for five with such. Katy's Plum returns from a seven month layoff and gets Bejarano in the saddle.
I'm investing much more in today's play than I normally do; but I feel that it's justified with the larger fields. I'll be playing it Crist style; meaning that the tickets will look like this:
All A Entries
1,4,6,11 with 3 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 7 with 3 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $3.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 11,14 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $24.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 3 with 2,9,12 with 5,8,12 $18.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 3 with 5,7 with 2,6,7,9 $16.00
Total: $85.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 19, 2014
1/19/14 Santa Anita Pick Five - Results
Race 1 - # 4 Goldilocks Planet (Final Odds 2.40) - "A" Selection
Race 2 - # 5 Browsing (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Mia's Storm (5.20) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 7 Small Moves (6.90) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 8 Indecise (2.90) - "A" Selection
Goldilocks Planet offered her rebuttal in the curtain jerker to our opinion that she shouldn't be a single on our card, winning clear by over two lengths. Browsing was the only Post Time Favorite to cross the wire first in the sequence; indeed, she was one of just two Post Time Favorites to Win on Sunday's full card.
Mia's Storm had been a late toss out, as I did not like that Trainer Ronald McAnally had just one winner the last nineteen times he had brought back a horse from a layoff similar to Mia's Storm's; nor did I like his oh-for-seventeen record with runners entered in sprints. What can you do? Live by Trainer Stats; die by Trainer Stats. Our single "A" selection in Race 3, # 5 Salsita (1.20*) took the Place, while our single "C" selection, # 4 Shared Image (1.90) grabbed the Show.
# 6 Zuzu's Petals (1.60*) was the Show horse in Race 4, while our other "A" selection in that contest, # 3 Pearl de Vere (1.90) showed zero interest in competing today, and finished last. As we expected, Small Moves was part of the early pace scenario, dueling with Zuzu's Petals early and then holding off # 1 Sidebar (4.60) late to win by a head. Finally, we were right to be cautious regarding the drop into Optional Claiming Company by # 2 My Gi Gi (2.20*) as the best she could do was take the Place in Race 5, a length and a half behind the winner.
So when all was said and done we were left holding a ticket with four Winners and a Place horse, our margin of defeat being the two and a quarter lengths by which Mia's Storm crossed the wire in front of Salsita in Race 3.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 (a nice, orderly result) were rewarded with a payout of $1,246.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 2 - # 5 Browsing (1.10*) - "A" Selection
Race 3 - # 6 Mia's Storm (5.20) - No Selection
Race 4 - # 7 Small Moves (6.90) - "C" Selection
Race 5 - # 8 Indecise (2.90) - "A" Selection
Goldilocks Planet offered her rebuttal in the curtain jerker to our opinion that she shouldn't be a single on our card, winning clear by over two lengths. Browsing was the only Post Time Favorite to cross the wire first in the sequence; indeed, she was one of just two Post Time Favorites to Win on Sunday's full card.
Mia's Storm had been a late toss out, as I did not like that Trainer Ronald McAnally had just one winner the last nineteen times he had brought back a horse from a layoff similar to Mia's Storm's; nor did I like his oh-for-seventeen record with runners entered in sprints. What can you do? Live by Trainer Stats; die by Trainer Stats. Our single "A" selection in Race 3, # 5 Salsita (1.20*) took the Place, while our single "C" selection, # 4 Shared Image (1.90) grabbed the Show.
# 6 Zuzu's Petals (1.60*) was the Show horse in Race 4, while our other "A" selection in that contest, # 3 Pearl de Vere (1.90) showed zero interest in competing today, and finished last. As we expected, Small Moves was part of the early pace scenario, dueling with Zuzu's Petals early and then holding off # 1 Sidebar (4.60) late to win by a head. Finally, we were right to be cautious regarding the drop into Optional Claiming Company by # 2 My Gi Gi (2.20*) as the best she could do was take the Place in Race 5, a length and a half behind the winner.
So when all was said and done we were left holding a ticket with four Winners and a Place horse, our margin of defeat being the two and a quarter lengths by which Mia's Storm crossed the wire in front of Salsita in Race 3.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Five sequence of 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 (a nice, orderly result) were rewarded with a payout of $1,246.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/19/14 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview
"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
I trust that all of you are enjoying your three day weekend in the good old USA as we celebrate the birthday of Dr King. There was plenty of good racing throughout the country Saturday, with even more to follow today and tomorrow. After taking a look at Sunday's card at Santa Anita, I decided that my best play would be to take a swing at the Players' Pick Five. So with all that said, let's take a look at the first five races at Santa Anita today.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Goldilocks Planet (Morning Line 8-5)
# 5 She's a Go Girl (Morning Line 5-2)
C's
None
Goldilocks Planet moves to the barn of Trainer Paul Aguirre, who gets approximately 13% winners his first time with a new runner. Goldilocks Planet also gains the services of Jockey Ignacio Puglisi, meaning that this will be the first race since her debut that she won't be ridden by an apprentice. If she can return to the form that she displayed two and three races back, when she earned Beyer Speed Figures of 72 and 74, Goldilocks Planet should win without problem.
So why not single Goldilocks Planet? Well, for one thing, she finished out of the money in both of her prior starts on a fast dirt track. The layoff is also a concern; this is Goldilocks Planet first start since October, and she exits a race in which she posted her lowest career Beyer. This is also the first time that Goldilocks Planet is running with a price tag on her head; not something you like to see from a horse returning from a layoff, especially one returning with new owners, as it suggests that the new owners have decided the best thing to do with their investment is to sell cheap to cut their losses.
She's a Go Girl projects to be the speed of the speed in this one. She's been running against open claimers, so this move to an event restricted to non-winners of three lifetime could give her the class relief that she needs. She's a Go Girl's conditioner, Adam Kitchingham, shows high marks in all the relevant trainer stats.
RACE 2 - (F) Md $35k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Browsing (ML 2-1)
# 6 Moonlight Stroll (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Raja's Rose (ML 12-1)
Had she not been scratched, # 1 Spinning Steel (ML 4-1) would have been a "C" selection.
Browsing returns to the Maiden Claiming ranks after trying her hand against state-bred non-claiming maidens last time out. This will be Browsing's first time around two turns; but her breeding (as expressed by her Tomlinson Rating for the distance) suggests that should be no problem. Moonlight Stroll enters this contest with the best last-out Beyer, and runs for Trainer Richard Baltas, who gets 30% winners when taking his runners from sprints to routes. Raja's Rose, the most experienced runner in this field, earned her best two career Beyers when running a mile or longer on a fast dirt track without wearing blinkers; the very same conditions under which she'll be competing today.
RACE 3 - (F) Md $50k- Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Salsita (ML 8-5)
C's
# 4 Shared Image (ML 7-2)
Salsita makes the big drop today, going from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. Salsita's two best career Beyers were earned in her two races over this main track. Shared Image has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. Shared Image was sired by Rocky Bar, whose progeny win approximately 21% of their debuts.
RACE 4 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Pearl de Vere (ML 7-2)
# 6 Zuzu's Petals (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Sidebar (ML 7-2)
# 4 Miranda Rose (ML 6-1)
# 7 Small Moves (ML 6-1)
Pearl de Vere earned her career best Beyer when she broke her maiden in her only career start over this main track. Pearl de Vere has finished in the money in three of her four career starts on a fast dirt track. She'll be getting some much needed class relief here.
Zuzu's Petals makes her return to competition after a five month vacation; her trainer, Marty Jones, has a .30 Winning Percentage with such. Zuzu's Petals broke her maiden in her debut, her lone career race over this main track.
Sidebar tries winners for the first time; Trainer Bill Spawr wins one out of every five when placing last out winners. Sidebar sports the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. Miranda Rose and Small Moves project to be the early speed; if either falters at the start, the other could be long gone. Miranda Rose has flashed her speed on the synthetics, so it should carry over to real dirt; while Small Moves makes her first start off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who wins approximately 29% of the time with such.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 My Gi Gi (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sensationalize (ML 6-1)
# 8 Indecise (ML 9-2)
C's
# 10 Wittgenstein (Ire) (ML 10-1)
My Gi Gi makes her first start in a non-stakes event since breaking her maiden in her debut back in August 2011. This is also her first start in a non-Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes since taking the Place in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes in May 2012. My Gi Gi is a clear favorite here based on the class drop alone; but the fact that she hasn't gotten her picture taken since June 2012, along with her inability to finish in the money in her two career tries on this turf course are areas of concern. Add in that her late running style leaves her open to traffic problems in the stretch, and it seems prudent to not single My Gi Gi in this spot.
Sensationalize enters this contest with two wins in her last three tries. Worth noting that her one loss in that trio came in the one race where today's jockey, Joe Talamo, was not on her back. Indecise won at this level two back, but was DQ'd and placed seventh, making it the only race in her career on this turf course that she has not finished in the money. Wittgenstein (Ire) missed by less than a length last time out at this approximate level. Both of Wittgenstein's career victories have come over this turf course.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 3,6 with 2,7,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 4 with 5 with 3,6 with 2,7,8 $6.00
$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 3,6 with 10 $4.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
I trust that all of you are enjoying your three day weekend in the good old USA as we celebrate the birthday of Dr King. There was plenty of good racing throughout the country Saturday, with even more to follow today and tomorrow. After taking a look at Sunday's card at Santa Anita, I decided that my best play would be to take a swing at the Players' Pick Five. So with all that said, let's take a look at the first five races at Santa Anita today.
RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k N3L - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Goldilocks Planet (Morning Line 8-5)
# 5 She's a Go Girl (Morning Line 5-2)
C's
None
Goldilocks Planet moves to the barn of Trainer Paul Aguirre, who gets approximately 13% winners his first time with a new runner. Goldilocks Planet also gains the services of Jockey Ignacio Puglisi, meaning that this will be the first race since her debut that she won't be ridden by an apprentice. If she can return to the form that she displayed two and three races back, when she earned Beyer Speed Figures of 72 and 74, Goldilocks Planet should win without problem.
So why not single Goldilocks Planet? Well, for one thing, she finished out of the money in both of her prior starts on a fast dirt track. The layoff is also a concern; this is Goldilocks Planet first start since October, and she exits a race in which she posted her lowest career Beyer. This is also the first time that Goldilocks Planet is running with a price tag on her head; not something you like to see from a horse returning from a layoff, especially one returning with new owners, as it suggests that the new owners have decided the best thing to do with their investment is to sell cheap to cut their losses.
She's a Go Girl projects to be the speed of the speed in this one. She's been running against open claimers, so this move to an event restricted to non-winners of three lifetime could give her the class relief that she needs. She's a Go Girl's conditioner, Adam Kitchingham, shows high marks in all the relevant trainer stats.
RACE 2 - (F) Md $35k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Browsing (ML 2-1)
# 6 Moonlight Stroll (ML 5-2)
C's
# 4 Raja's Rose (ML 12-1)
Had she not been scratched, # 1 Spinning Steel (ML 4-1) would have been a "C" selection.
Browsing returns to the Maiden Claiming ranks after trying her hand against state-bred non-claiming maidens last time out. This will be Browsing's first time around two turns; but her breeding (as expressed by her Tomlinson Rating for the distance) suggests that should be no problem. Moonlight Stroll enters this contest with the best last-out Beyer, and runs for Trainer Richard Baltas, who gets 30% winners when taking his runners from sprints to routes. Raja's Rose, the most experienced runner in this field, earned her best two career Beyers when running a mile or longer on a fast dirt track without wearing blinkers; the very same conditions under which she'll be competing today.
RACE 3 - (F) Md $50k- Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Salsita (ML 8-5)
C's
# 4 Shared Image (ML 7-2)
Salsita makes the big drop today, going from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. Salsita's two best career Beyers were earned in her two races over this main track. Shared Image has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. Shared Image was sired by Rocky Bar, whose progeny win approximately 21% of their debuts.
RACE 4 - (F) Alw 40000s N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Pearl de Vere (ML 7-2)
# 6 Zuzu's Petals (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Sidebar (ML 7-2)
# 4 Miranda Rose (ML 6-1)
# 7 Small Moves (ML 6-1)
Pearl de Vere earned her career best Beyer when she broke her maiden in her only career start over this main track. Pearl de Vere has finished in the money in three of her four career starts on a fast dirt track. She'll be getting some much needed class relief here.
Zuzu's Petals makes her return to competition after a five month vacation; her trainer, Marty Jones, has a .30 Winning Percentage with such. Zuzu's Petals broke her maiden in her debut, her lone career race over this main track.
Sidebar tries winners for the first time; Trainer Bill Spawr wins one out of every five when placing last out winners. Sidebar sports the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. Miranda Rose and Small Moves project to be the early speed; if either falters at the start, the other could be long gone. Miranda Rose has flashed her speed on the synthetics, so it should carry over to real dirt; while Small Moves makes her first start off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who wins approximately 29% of the time with such.
RACE 5 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 My Gi Gi (ML 3-1)
# 7 Sensationalize (ML 6-1)
# 8 Indecise (ML 9-2)
C's
# 10 Wittgenstein (Ire) (ML 10-1)
My Gi Gi makes her first start in a non-stakes event since breaking her maiden in her debut back in August 2011. This is also her first start in a non-Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes since taking the Place in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes in May 2012. My Gi Gi is a clear favorite here based on the class drop alone; but the fact that she hasn't gotten her picture taken since June 2012, along with her inability to finish in the money in her two career tries on this turf course are areas of concern. Add in that her late running style leaves her open to traffic problems in the stretch, and it seems prudent to not single My Gi Gi in this spot.
Sensationalize enters this contest with two wins in her last three tries. Worth noting that her one loss in that trio came in the one race where today's jockey, Joe Talamo, was not on her back. Indecise won at this level two back, but was DQ'd and placed seventh, making it the only race in her career on this turf course that she has not finished in the money. Wittgenstein (Ire) missed by less than a length last time out at this approximate level. Both of Wittgenstein's career victories have come over this turf course.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 3,6 with 2,7,8 $24.00
$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 4 with 5 with 3,6 with 2,7,8 $6.00
$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 4 with 3,6 with 2,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 1,4,7 with 2,7,8 $18.00$0.50 pick P5: 4,5 with 5,6 with 5 with 3,6 with 10 $4.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 12, 2014
1/12/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 7 Velvet Mesquite (Final Odds 1.20*) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - The Paseana - # 4 Golden Production (9.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Ready for More (2.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Vegas Bound (16.00) - No Selection
While her margin of victory was less than a length, Velvet Mesquite won with such ease that it seems so wrong in retrospect to have not used her as a single "A". We did use a single "A" in the second leg, the Paseana: # 6 Stanwyck (2.30), who had every chance you could ask for to pass Golden Production in the stretch; but the winner would not be denied.
Jockey Mike Smith hustled Ready for More right out of the gate for an easy wire-to-wire victory in Race 8. Meanwhile, # 5 Tripski (3.70), one of our two "A" selections, showed none of the early speed that he had displayed his last time out and finished sixth, a half length behind our other "A" selection, # 3 Pure Loyalty (2.60). Finally, Vegas Bound, the most experienced runner in the finale, proved that the eighth time's the charm, winning the last leg easily, crossing the wire more than a half dozen lengths in front of Place horse (and "A" selection) # 4 Moscato Girl (0.80*).
So we could only get one "A" selection home; and even that victory is somewhat bittersweet, as it was a race that in retrospect we spread too wide. So not a good day for the home team, as our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $66.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 9 / 6 (which, incidentally, was given out on air by TVG's Paul LoDuca) were rewarded with a payout of $1,015.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - The Paseana - # 4 Golden Production (9.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - # 9 Ready for More (2.50*) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Vegas Bound (16.00) - No Selection
While her margin of victory was less than a length, Velvet Mesquite won with such ease that it seems so wrong in retrospect to have not used her as a single "A". We did use a single "A" in the second leg, the Paseana: # 6 Stanwyck (2.30), who had every chance you could ask for to pass Golden Production in the stretch; but the winner would not be denied.
Jockey Mike Smith hustled Ready for More right out of the gate for an easy wire-to-wire victory in Race 8. Meanwhile, # 5 Tripski (3.70), one of our two "A" selections, showed none of the early speed that he had displayed his last time out and finished sixth, a half length behind our other "A" selection, # 3 Pure Loyalty (2.60). Finally, Vegas Bound, the most experienced runner in the finale, proved that the eighth time's the charm, winning the last leg easily, crossing the wire more than a half dozen lengths in front of Place horse (and "A" selection) # 4 Moscato Girl (0.80*).
So we could only get one "A" selection home; and even that victory is somewhat bittersweet, as it was a race that in retrospect we spread too wide. So not a good day for the home team, as our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $66.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 7 / 4 / 9 / 6 (which, incidentally, was given out on air by TVG's Paul LoDuca) were rewarded with a payout of $1,015.55 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/12/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Interesting sequence in SoCal this afternoon. We've got two charges down the hill, a listed stakes event, and we close it all out with maiden fillies up for sale. Good Lord willing, we'll find the right play and exit the Late Pick Four with more than when we entered.
RACE 6 - [S](F) OC 25k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 1 Hidethegoodstuff (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 J and S Express (ML 4-1)
# 7 Velvet Mesquite (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Sweetest Secret (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cayanna (ML 4-1)
# 5 Always a Chance (ML 4-1)
Velvet Mesquite is making just her second career start, having won her debut charging down this hill on the second day of the meet. As this field is comprised of many who seem to prefer second place to first, Velvet Mesquite's inexperience is more of a positive than a negative. The fact that Trainer Blake Heap sports an oh-for-nine record when spotting his winners was the main roadblock in not making Velvet Mesquite a single "A" here.
Hidethegoodstuff, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, should be the early frontrunner, and just may cross the wire before most of these have a chance to get rolling. J and S Express has shown good tactical speed, and should get first run at Hidethegoodstuff.
Sweetest Secret enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and is the only horse in the field besides Velvet Mesquite with more Wins on turf than Place finishes. Cayanna and Always a Chance are an uncoupled entry trained by Doug O'Neill. Both have displayed the ability to win at this level, if not the desire.
RACE 7 - The Paseana $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Stanwyck (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Halo Dolly (ML 3-1)
# 2 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Rock and Glory (ML 4-1)
Stanwyck returns from New York with a Grade 3 win her last time competing, along with the best last out Beyer. Halo Dolly comes off the grass for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, making her first start on real dirt since June of 2012. Hollendorfer sports a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt. Miss Serendipity (Arg) had a very impressive work over this track 12/30, covering seven furlongs in under 1:25. She'll draw a lot of early money based on that move alone; but her record of just one win in six tries on a fast dirt track is cause for concern. Rock and Glory looks to be the speed of the speed here; if someone doesn't go after her early, she just might steal it.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Pure Loyalty (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tripski (ML 3-1)
C's
# 8 El Mirage King (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 4-1)
Pure Loyalty won two back in his only other race charging down the hill. Rafael Bejarano, who was on his back that day, gets the mount again today. Tripski showed an interesting change of pace his last time out, grabbing the early lead and sticking near the front to grab the Win; perhaps this is something conditioner Steve Asmussen trained into him. Joe Talamo, who got his picture taken with Tripski that day, gets the ride again today.
El Mirage King just missed at this approximate level his last time out; he'll get a rider switch today from the seven pound apprentice to Cory Nakatani. Ready for More comes back from a two month freshening for Trainer Mike Puype; note that Puype has a Winning Percentage of .23 with such. Also note that Mike Smith will be in the saddle today; the Puype / Smith tandem have a .35 Winning Percentage (with a positive ROI) the last twenty-six times that they have teamed up.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 L X Sunrise (ML 6-1)
# 2 Red Barris (ML 9-2)
# 4 Moscato Girl (ML 5-2)
C's
# 7 Wildcat Janine (ML 3-1)
L X Sunrise was purchased as a yearling at the Keeneland Auction in September 2012 for $37k. She makes her debut today with a pricetag of $30k on her head. Clearly, L X Sunrise did not develop into what her connections had hoped. Still, you have to respect her chances today, as Trainer Peter Miller wins 29% of the time when debuting a horse in a Maiden Claiming event. Also note that progeny of sire Kodiak Cowboy win approximately 15% of their debuts.
Red Barris flashed some early foot his last time out, and has definitely shown a preference in his races for real dirt over synthetics. Moscato Girl makes the drop from State Bred MSW into the claiming ranks today; note that her best Beyer Speed Figure was earned in her debut, which also happens to be her only prior race on real dirt. Wildcat Janine took the Place at this level her last time out in her debut after a horrendous start.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing the tickets as usual using the Crist method: all "A's" on a one dollar ticket (should cost $18) and then fifty cent tickets using "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other (those four tickets should have a combined cost of $48). Put it all together and you get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 3,4,5 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 1,2,7 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $27.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 8,9 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 7 $3.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - [S](F) OC 25k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 1 Hidethegoodstuff (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 J and S Express (ML 4-1)
# 7 Velvet Mesquite (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Sweetest Secret (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cayanna (ML 4-1)
# 5 Always a Chance (ML 4-1)
Velvet Mesquite is making just her second career start, having won her debut charging down this hill on the second day of the meet. As this field is comprised of many who seem to prefer second place to first, Velvet Mesquite's inexperience is more of a positive than a negative. The fact that Trainer Blake Heap sports an oh-for-nine record when spotting his winners was the main roadblock in not making Velvet Mesquite a single "A" here.
Hidethegoodstuff, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, should be the early frontrunner, and just may cross the wire before most of these have a chance to get rolling. J and S Express has shown good tactical speed, and should get first run at Hidethegoodstuff.
Sweetest Secret enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and is the only horse in the field besides Velvet Mesquite with more Wins on turf than Place finishes. Cayanna and Always a Chance are an uncoupled entry trained by Doug O'Neill. Both have displayed the ability to win at this level, if not the desire.
RACE 7 - The Paseana $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Stanwyck (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Halo Dolly (ML 3-1)
# 2 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Rock and Glory (ML 4-1)
Stanwyck returns from New York with a Grade 3 win her last time competing, along with the best last out Beyer. Halo Dolly comes off the grass for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, making her first start on real dirt since June of 2012. Hollendorfer sports a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt. Miss Serendipity (Arg) had a very impressive work over this track 12/30, covering seven furlongs in under 1:25. She'll draw a lot of early money based on that move alone; but her record of just one win in six tries on a fast dirt track is cause for concern. Rock and Glory looks to be the speed of the speed here; if someone doesn't go after her early, she just might steal it.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Pure Loyalty (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tripski (ML 3-1)
C's
# 8 El Mirage King (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 4-1)
Pure Loyalty won two back in his only other race charging down the hill. Rafael Bejarano, who was on his back that day, gets the mount again today. Tripski showed an interesting change of pace his last time out, grabbing the early lead and sticking near the front to grab the Win; perhaps this is something conditioner Steve Asmussen trained into him. Joe Talamo, who got his picture taken with Tripski that day, gets the ride again today.
El Mirage King just missed at this approximate level his last time out; he'll get a rider switch today from the seven pound apprentice to Cory Nakatani. Ready for More comes back from a two month freshening for Trainer Mike Puype; note that Puype has a Winning Percentage of .23 with such. Also note that Mike Smith will be in the saddle today; the Puype / Smith tandem have a .35 Winning Percentage (with a positive ROI) the last twenty-six times that they have teamed up.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 L X Sunrise (ML 6-1)
# 2 Red Barris (ML 9-2)
# 4 Moscato Girl (ML 5-2)
C's
# 7 Wildcat Janine (ML 3-1)
L X Sunrise was purchased as a yearling at the Keeneland Auction in September 2012 for $37k. She makes her debut today with a pricetag of $30k on her head. Clearly, L X Sunrise did not develop into what her connections had hoped. Still, you have to respect her chances today, as Trainer Peter Miller wins 29% of the time when debuting a horse in a Maiden Claiming event. Also note that progeny of sire Kodiak Cowboy win approximately 15% of their debuts.
Red Barris flashed some early foot his last time out, and has definitely shown a preference in his races for real dirt over synthetics. Moscato Girl makes the drop from State Bred MSW into the claiming ranks today; note that her best Beyer Speed Figure was earned in her debut, which also happens to be her only prior race on real dirt. Wildcat Janine took the Place at this level her last time out in her debut after a horrendous start.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing the tickets as usual using the Crist method: all "A's" on a one dollar ticket (should cost $18) and then fifty cent tickets using "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other (those four tickets should have a combined cost of $48). Put it all together and you get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 3,4,5 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 1,2,7 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $27.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 8,9 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 7 $3.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Friday, January 10, 2014
1/9/14 GG R7 - Horse Watch Follow-Up
It was back to Northern California Thursday for City Chapel, the longshot claim by Owner / Trainer Victor Trujillo that we've been following. City Chapel competed in Race 7 at Golden Gate Fields, a Claiming Race ($12.5k-$10k) for non-winners of two lifetime other than Maiden, Claiming, and Starter races for $10k or less (NW2LX).
Breaking from the widest post, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.60) stalked the pace, took the turn five wide, and was closing at the end, only to finish second, a half length behind Post Time Favorite Roving Storm (1.70*). For his efforts City Chapel earns $2400 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to $54,915.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Breaking from the widest post, City Chapel (Final Odds 3.60) stalked the pace, took the turn five wide, and was closing at the end, only to finish second, a half length behind Post Time Favorite Roving Storm (1.70*). For his efforts City Chapel earns $2400 in purse money for his connections, bringing his total earnings for the Trujillo barn since being claimed for $4,000 to $54,915.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Sunday, January 5, 2014
The Lady in Red: A story of a woman and bridge jumpers
There's a nice little historical piece up at DRF.com that I think you all may enjoy:
"The Lady in Red: A story of a woman and bridge jumpers"
It was the war-weary summer of 1944 when a mysterious dark-haired pixie, barely 4-foot-10 in heels, asserted herself as a towering presence at the Rockingham Park wagering windows.
The petite stranger, perhaps in her 30s, fancied large show bets on heavy favorites in short fields. She arrived inconspicuously and placed her wagers discreetly – or as unobtrusively as possible considering that she tied up high-denomination windows by sliding fat stacks of hundreds across the counter until the race went off.
Almost always, the commanding favorites won. Almost always, the go-for-broke show bettor collected 10 cents on the dollar and slipped away quietly, leaving in her wake thousands of dollars of minus pools – an occurrence when the track pays out more money than it takes in to comply with minimum-payout laws.
At first, the only clues to her cryptic comings and goings were the five-digit flashes that flickered to life on the tote board. But by the end of the season, the demure heavy hitter had gained a fervent national following – and unwanted scrutiny from track officials, who were powerless to stop her pari-mutuel pillaging.
Horseplayers couldn’t resist rooting for her, and were quick to swoon over the mystery woman who came to be known as the Lady in Red.
Had she been operating in the 21st century, this woman would no doubt have acquired a different nickname: Today, we would call her a “bridge jumper,” racetrack slang for a bettor who risks a lot to win a little on a perceived “sure thing,” most often in the form of a show bet. To lose such a wager is said to be so devastating that the bettor feels like jumping off the nearest bridge.
In fact, had the Lady in Red been strafing show pools in 2014, the betting public would be following her for reasons unrelated to human interest: Handicappers today use social media and the Internet to keep tabs on show-pool plungers for the purpose of wagering against them, banking on upsets that trigger outsized windfalls for everyone but the bridge jumpers.
But that’s getting ahead of the story by 70 years.
The article was written by TD Thornton, author of Not By a Long Shot: A Season at a Hard Luck Horse Track; which, like the article, is well worth the read. At least, in my humble opinion.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
"The Lady in Red: A story of a woman and bridge jumpers"
It was the war-weary summer of 1944 when a mysterious dark-haired pixie, barely 4-foot-10 in heels, asserted herself as a towering presence at the Rockingham Park wagering windows.
The petite stranger, perhaps in her 30s, fancied large show bets on heavy favorites in short fields. She arrived inconspicuously and placed her wagers discreetly – or as unobtrusively as possible considering that she tied up high-denomination windows by sliding fat stacks of hundreds across the counter until the race went off.
Almost always, the commanding favorites won. Almost always, the go-for-broke show bettor collected 10 cents on the dollar and slipped away quietly, leaving in her wake thousands of dollars of minus pools – an occurrence when the track pays out more money than it takes in to comply with minimum-payout laws.
At first, the only clues to her cryptic comings and goings were the five-digit flashes that flickered to life on the tote board. But by the end of the season, the demure heavy hitter had gained a fervent national following – and unwanted scrutiny from track officials, who were powerless to stop her pari-mutuel pillaging.
Horseplayers couldn’t resist rooting for her, and were quick to swoon over the mystery woman who came to be known as the Lady in Red.
Had she been operating in the 21st century, this woman would no doubt have acquired a different nickname: Today, we would call her a “bridge jumper,” racetrack slang for a bettor who risks a lot to win a little on a perceived “sure thing,” most often in the form of a show bet. To lose such a wager is said to be so devastating that the bettor feels like jumping off the nearest bridge.
In fact, had the Lady in Red been strafing show pools in 2014, the betting public would be following her for reasons unrelated to human interest: Handicappers today use social media and the Internet to keep tabs on show-pool plungers for the purpose of wagering against them, banking on upsets that trigger outsized windfalls for everyone but the bridge jumpers.
But that’s getting ahead of the story by 70 years.
The article was written by TD Thornton, author of Not By a Long Shot: A Season at a Hard Luck Horse Track; which, like the article, is well worth the read. At least, in my humble opinion.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Saturday, January 4, 2014
1/4/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 6 Sheza Smoke Screen (Final Odds 3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 7 - # 1 Appealing Tale (5.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The San Gabriel - # 9 Jeranimo (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 The Mad Hungarian (6.70) - "C" Selection
Today's Late Pick Four played out like an exercise in how to look like you're close to cashing when you're really not. We had each of the four winners on our tickets; indeed, had we played our selections caveman style, we would have cashed (though it would have been a $150 outlay paying out at odds a little bit lower than a straight Win bet on Jeranimo). We also had "A" selections take the Place in all four races; but none were really close to winning; except perhaps # 4 Divine Way (4.60) in Race 6, who couldn't hold the lead in the stretch and was defeated by half a length.
Anyway, "close but not really" pays the same as "really close" which pays the same as "not close at all"; so no matter what you call it, our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $60.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 1 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $335.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 1 Appealing Tale (5.30) - "C" Selection
Race 8 - The San Gabriel - # 9 Jeranimo (1.30*) - "A" Selection
Race 9 - # 3 The Mad Hungarian (6.70) - "C" Selection
Today's Late Pick Four played out like an exercise in how to look like you're close to cashing when you're really not. We had each of the four winners on our tickets; indeed, had we played our selections caveman style, we would have cashed (though it would have been a $150 outlay paying out at odds a little bit lower than a straight Win bet on Jeranimo). We also had "A" selections take the Place in all four races; but none were really close to winning; except perhaps # 4 Divine Way (4.60) in Race 6, who couldn't hold the lead in the stretch and was defeated by half a length.
Anyway, "close but not really" pays the same as "really close" which pays the same as "not close at all"; so no matter what you call it, our Late Pick Four play results in a Net Loss of $60.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 6 / 1 / 9 / 3 were rewarded with a payout of $335.95 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/4/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
The Grade 2 Santa Ynez is being run today at Santa Anita; it drew all of four horses. That event is followed by The Midnight Lute, a listed stakes which drew all of five entrants (one of whom is now scratched). But those two are on the front end of the card; we'll be turning our attention this Saturday to the final four races at Santa Anita today, the Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Divine Way (Morning Line 4-1)
# 7 Keezheekoni (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 6-1)
# 5 Among the Stars (ML 15-1)
# 6 Sheza Smoke Show (ML 7-2)
Divine Way took a big step forward while taking the Place at this level her last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure that should get the job done today if repeated. Keezheekoni took the Show at this level her last time out in her debut, and today adds Bejarano in the saddle.
Hey Pretty Girl exits a key race, having taken the Place in an event where the Winner and the Show horse came back to win their next contests. Among the Stars is virtually tied with Divine Way for Best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance. Sheza Smoke Show, like Keezheekoni, is trained by Peter Eurton. Sheeza Smoke screen finished two lengths behind Divine Way her last time out, but could turn the tables today if Divine Way doesn't take to charing down the hill.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Cat Burglar (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 9-2)
# 3 Curly Top (ML 9-2)
Cat Burglar, trained by Bob Baffert, broke his maiden in his first start on real dirt over this Santa Anita main track, and then took the Place in his first try against winners. Appealing Tale could be the controlling speed on the rail. Curly Top was victorious in his only prior start over this main track, and is also trained by Bob Baffert.
RACE 8 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Slim Shady (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 9 Jeranimo (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Had he not scratched, # 4 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 3-1) would have been a "C" contender.
Slim Shady is a multiple Graded Stakes winner, and should be the controlling speed on the rail. There's a good chance that he'll be crossing the wire before most of the field has a chance to get into gear. In my opinion, the entrant with the best chance of running down Slim Shady in the stretch is Jeranimo, who has twice won this event (last year and in 2010).
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Mahalo Arturo (ML 6-1)
# 8 Seeking Asylum (ML 7-2)
# 9 Regal Randy (ML 6-1)
# 10 Sooo Major (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Prospector Alley (ML 6-1)
# 3 The Mad Hungarian (ML 6-1)
# 4 Head South (ML 12-1)
# 5 Awesome T (ML 5-1)
# 6 Warrensgoldenyears (ML 8-1)
# 7 Mosso (ML 10-1)
Mahalo Arturo makes the drop from state-bred MSW to state-bred claimer. Mahalo Arturo's trainer, Doug O'Neill, also does well when sending out a runner, like Mahalo Arturo here, who is coming back after a two-to-six month freshening. Seeking Asylum has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, as well as the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Regal Randy was weakened by the speed duel his last time out; perhaps the additional half-furlong today will ease the fractions for him on the front end. Sooo Major has twice taken the Place against $30k open maidens, but has yet to hit the board against state restricted $50k maidens; if he can relax and rate, he can win.
The C's are the rest of the field. Were I being more discriminating I would have eliminated Prospector Alley and Warrensgoldenyears, and possibly Mosso; but as the savings would have been minimal, I thought it best to leave them in.
Play the tickets as usual with the Crist method: all "A's" on a one dollar ticket (should cost $16) and then fifty cent tickets using "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other (those three tickets should have a combined cost of $40). In addition, I'm going to purchase a one dollar ticket of "Super A's", if you will, as I see a good possibility that we could get a very chalky result. That ticket will be 4, 7 / 4 / 1, 9 / 8 which will cost $4. Put it all together, and the total investment is $60.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 4 Divine Way (Morning Line 4-1)
# 7 Keezheekoni (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 6-1)
# 5 Among the Stars (ML 15-1)
# 6 Sheza Smoke Show (ML 7-2)
Divine Way took a big step forward while taking the Place at this level her last time out, earning a Beyer Speed Figure that should get the job done today if repeated. Keezheekoni took the Show at this level her last time out in her debut, and today adds Bejarano in the saddle.
Hey Pretty Girl exits a key race, having taken the Place in an event where the Winner and the Show horse came back to win their next contests. Among the Stars is virtually tied with Divine Way for Best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance. Sheza Smoke Show, like Keezheekoni, is trained by Peter Eurton. Sheeza Smoke screen finished two lengths behind Divine Way her last time out, but could turn the tables today if Divine Way doesn't take to charing down the hill.
RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Cat Burglar (ML 9-5)
C’s
# 1 Appealing Tale (ML 9-2)
# 3 Curly Top (ML 9-2)
Cat Burglar, trained by Bob Baffert, broke his maiden in his first start on real dirt over this Santa Anita main track, and then took the Place in his first try against winners. Appealing Tale could be the controlling speed on the rail. Curly Top was victorious in his only prior start over this main track, and is also trained by Bob Baffert.
RACE 8 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Slim Shady (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 9 Jeranimo (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Had he not scratched, # 4 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 3-1) would have been a "C" contender.
Slim Shady is a multiple Graded Stakes winner, and should be the controlling speed on the rail. There's a good chance that he'll be crossing the wire before most of the field has a chance to get into gear. In my opinion, the entrant with the best chance of running down Slim Shady in the stretch is Jeranimo, who has twice won this event (last year and in 2010).
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Mahalo Arturo (ML 6-1)
# 8 Seeking Asylum (ML 7-2)
# 9 Regal Randy (ML 6-1)
# 10 Sooo Major (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Prospector Alley (ML 6-1)
# 3 The Mad Hungarian (ML 6-1)
# 4 Head South (ML 12-1)
# 5 Awesome T (ML 5-1)
# 6 Warrensgoldenyears (ML 8-1)
# 7 Mosso (ML 10-1)
Mahalo Arturo makes the drop from state-bred MSW to state-bred claimer. Mahalo Arturo's trainer, Doug O'Neill, also does well when sending out a runner, like Mahalo Arturo here, who is coming back after a two-to-six month freshening. Seeking Asylum has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field, as well as the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. Regal Randy was weakened by the speed duel his last time out; perhaps the additional half-furlong today will ease the fractions for him on the front end. Sooo Major has twice taken the Place against $30k open maidens, but has yet to hit the board against state restricted $50k maidens; if he can relax and rate, he can win.
The C's are the rest of the field. Were I being more discriminating I would have eliminated Prospector Alley and Warrensgoldenyears, and possibly Mosso; but as the savings would have been minimal, I thought it best to leave them in.
Play the tickets as usual with the Crist method: all "A's" on a one dollar ticket (should cost $16) and then fifty cent tickets using "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other (those three tickets should have a combined cost of $40). In addition, I'm going to purchase a one dollar ticket of "Super A's", if you will, as I see a good possibility that we could get a very chalky result. That ticket will be 4, 7 / 4 / 1, 9 / 8 which will cost $4. Put it all together, and the total investment is $60.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
1/1/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Results
Race 6 - # 8 Boller Bomb (Final Odds 3.30) - "A" Selection
Race 7 - # 11 Glorious Rebecca (6.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Blue Norther - # 6 Sushi Empire (3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Alpha Bullet (4.60) - "C" Selection
We started the year off right by winning the photo in the opening leg, as Boller Bomb refused to let # 9 High Jinks (Brz) (12.50) pass her at the wire. And we correctly spotted a vulnerable favorite in # 5 Betty Bing Bing (2.70*) in the next leg. Unfortunately, we had no part of Glorious Rebecca in that event, and thus failed to convert on our correct appraisal of the favorite. But leaving Glorious Rebecca out of our play was not our only mistake; for even if we had used her as an "A" Contender our tickets were still doomed, as the next two legs were both won by "C" Selections, which is one "C" Selection more than allowable for us to cash.
So we got off to a good start but it was all for naught, as our Late Pick Four results in a Net Loss of $33.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 11 / 6 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $519.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
Race 7 - # 11 Glorious Rebecca (6.40) - No Selection
Race 8 - The Blue Norther - # 6 Sushi Empire (3.20) - "C" Selection
Race 9 - # 6 Alpha Bullet (4.60) - "C" Selection
We started the year off right by winning the photo in the opening leg, as Boller Bomb refused to let # 9 High Jinks (Brz) (12.50) pass her at the wire. And we correctly spotted a vulnerable favorite in # 5 Betty Bing Bing (2.70*) in the next leg. Unfortunately, we had no part of Glorious Rebecca in that event, and thus failed to convert on our correct appraisal of the favorite. But leaving Glorious Rebecca out of our play was not our only mistake; for even if we had used her as an "A" Contender our tickets were still doomed, as the next two legs were both won by "C" Selections, which is one "C" Selection more than allowable for us to cash.
So we got off to a good start but it was all for naught, as our Late Pick Four results in a Net Loss of $33.
Oh well; onto the next race.
Meanwhile, those who played the correct Pick Four sequence of 8 / 11 / 6 / 6 were rewarded with a payout of $519.60 for their fifty cent wager. May God bless them as they spend their winnings.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
1/1/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview
Happy New Year! Here's wishing everyone the very best of all things throughout the next twelve months. And here's hoping that today's Late Pick Four Play at Santa Anita gets us off on the right foot towards a year of recording our results in black ink rather than red.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ricspretentiousgal (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tayrona (ML 9-2)
# 8 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Ricspretentiousgal has two wins in his last four starts; both victories coming on two turn events on the grass, as well as against slightly classier stock. Boller Bomb is getting some class relief, having won at this level four back, and then competing against Allowance company thereafter. Note that Boller Bomb is two-for-four (with a Place) on the Santa Anita turf course, while Ricspretentiousgal is winless in four tries. Tayrona won at this level over this track two starts back, and then took the Place against Allowance company.
RACE 7 - [S](F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Glance's Rule (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 Q'Viva (ML 12-1)
# 5 Betty Bing Bing (ML 7-2)
# 9 Exclusive Girl (ML 6-1)
Betty Bing Bing is the Morning Line Favorite, and she looks rather vulnerable in that role. She had some trouble her last time out, but nothing insurmountable; and her workouts suggest that she prefers the artificial surfaces to today's real dirt. Still, have to respect because of the initial effort and the class drop.
Glance's Rule is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with Maidens making their second start, as well as with runners competing in Maiden Claiming events (.21 Winning Percentage in both categories). Q'Viva and Exclusive Girl are first time starters from sires whose progeny tend to be successful their first time out.
RACE 8 - (F) The Blue Norther $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Full Ransom (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Sushi Empire (ML 7-2)
# 7 Rever de Vous (ML 6-1)
Had she not been scratched, # 1 Famous Alice (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.
Full Ransom is a Graded Stakes winner on the turf, as well as being two-for-two when running on some California grass. Sushi Empire is still a maiden, but she did take the Show just a length and a half behind Full Ransom in that Grade 3 event. Rever de Vous tries the grass for the first time as well as adding blinkers; not sure how well she'll respond to either, but she warrants consideration based upon the Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer / Jockey Rafael Bejarano tandem (the duo has a .30 Winning Percentage over the past twenty-four months).
RACE 9 - Md $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Grand Humor (ML 7-2)
# 10 Apache Ambush (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Dynamite Wind (ML 30-1)
# 2 Second Proposal (ML 4-1)
# 3 Goyan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Qatar's Pearl (ML 6-1)
# 5 Mateo (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alpha Bullet (ML 4-1)
# 8 Stauffenberg (ML 20-1)
# 9 Through My Eyes (ML 4-1)
Grand Humor is a first time gelding (hence the long layoff) with the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field. # 10 Apache Ambush has been working well over this main track; indeed, his best career Beyer Speed Figure came in his one race over this dirt track. Using all others as "C" contenders, as I can see this event breaking down into a chaos race.
Playing the above using our usual Crist-style tickets (All "A's" for a buck; "A's" with a "C" for fifty cents) gives us a total investment of $33.00. Having single "A's" in half the legs really cuts down on costs; we'll see later how well it does at putting money in our pockets.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $40k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Ricspretentiousgal (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tayrona (ML 9-2)
# 8 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Ricspretentiousgal has two wins in his last four starts; both victories coming on two turn events on the grass, as well as against slightly classier stock. Boller Bomb is getting some class relief, having won at this level four back, and then competing against Allowance company thereafter. Note that Boller Bomb is two-for-four (with a Place) on the Santa Anita turf course, while Ricspretentiousgal is winless in four tries. Tayrona won at this level over this track two starts back, and then took the Place against Allowance company.
RACE 7 - [S](F) Md $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Glance's Rule (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 3 Q'Viva (ML 12-1)
# 5 Betty Bing Bing (ML 7-2)
# 9 Exclusive Girl (ML 6-1)
Betty Bing Bing is the Morning Line Favorite, and she looks rather vulnerable in that role. She had some trouble her last time out, but nothing insurmountable; and her workouts suggest that she prefers the artificial surfaces to today's real dirt. Still, have to respect because of the initial effort and the class drop.
Glance's Rule is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with Maidens making their second start, as well as with runners competing in Maiden Claiming events (.21 Winning Percentage in both categories). Q'Viva and Exclusive Girl are first time starters from sires whose progeny tend to be successful their first time out.
RACE 8 - (F) The Blue Norther $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Full Ransom (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Sushi Empire (ML 7-2)
# 7 Rever de Vous (ML 6-1)
Had she not been scratched, # 1 Famous Alice (ML 3-1) would have been an "A" selection.
Full Ransom is a Graded Stakes winner on the turf, as well as being two-for-two when running on some California grass. Sushi Empire is still a maiden, but she did take the Show just a length and a half behind Full Ransom in that Grade 3 event. Rever de Vous tries the grass for the first time as well as adding blinkers; not sure how well she'll respond to either, but she warrants consideration based upon the Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer / Jockey Rafael Bejarano tandem (the duo has a .30 Winning Percentage over the past twenty-four months).
RACE 9 - Md $40k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 7 Grand Humor (ML 7-2)
# 10 Apache Ambush (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Dynamite Wind (ML 30-1)
# 2 Second Proposal (ML 4-1)
# 3 Goyan (ML 10-1)
# 4 Qatar's Pearl (ML 6-1)
# 5 Mateo (ML 30-1)
# 6 Alpha Bullet (ML 4-1)
# 8 Stauffenberg (ML 20-1)
# 9 Through My Eyes (ML 4-1)
Grand Humor is a first time gelding (hence the long layoff) with the best Tomlinson Distance Rating in the field. # 10 Apache Ambush has been working well over this main track; indeed, his best career Beyer Speed Figure came in his one race over this dirt track. Using all others as "C" contenders, as I can see this event breaking down into a chaos race.
Playing the above using our usual Crist-style tickets (All "A's" for a buck; "A's" with a "C" for fifty cents) gives us a total investment of $33.00. Having single "A's" in half the legs really cuts down on costs; we'll see later how well it does at putting money in our pockets.
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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