So as we come to the final day of the holiday three day weekend we keep our attention focused on Southern California; but today we'll be hunting late rather than early as we make our play to capture the proper sequence to the Late Pick Four. And focus we must; as the fields are literally full today, with (as I write this) a dozen scheduled to go to post in three of the four legs, and eleven scheduled to leave the gate in the other.
RACE 6 - Clm $25k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 1 Relentless Heat (Morning Line 10-1)
# 4 Insideontheoutside (ML 7-2)
# 6 Big Note (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 11 Dixieland Blues (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 7 Macias (ML 8-1)
Relentless Heat has done his best racing when charging down the hill, and his late running style looks like a good fit in this field which sports a lot of early speed. Insideontheoutside turns back in distance for a trainer (Peter Miller) who wins nearly one out of every four when making that move. Big Note (Ire) won at this level last time out by wiring the field; if he can handle the hill, there's no reason why he can't do that again today. Dixieland Blues was getting to Big Note late last time out; perhaps the extra half furlong makes the difference today. Macias is second only to Relentless Heat in career victories on the Santa Anita grass.
RACE 7 - [S](F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Yana (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 11 Capers N Wine (ML 7-2)
# 14 Warrenspoweroflove (ML 6-1)
Yana possesses the best career Beyer Speed Figure in the field, a number earned in her career debut over this main track. If she runs that race again today, she wins. Note also that Yana possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field by a comfortable margin. Having Mike Smith on board adds to the appeal.
Capers N Wine makes the switch from grass to dirt for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins approximately one out of every five times (with a positive ROI) he has a runner make this move. Warrenspoweroflove draws in from the Also Eligibles; the Beyer he earned in his debut suggests that Warrenspoweroflove can handle the upgrade in class.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 25k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 5 Candy's Surprise (ML 6-1)
# 7 Pulpit's Express (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Pulla Train (ML 6-1)
# 9 Waitwaitdonttellme (ML 5-1)
# 12 Bro's Bro (ML 9-2)
Candy's Surprise and Bro's Bro finished one-two last month at this approximate level last time out, albeit on the flats at Hollywood Park. While the margin in that one was close at the wire (less than a length's difference) I'm moving Bro's Bro down to a "C" selection here as I don't think his preferred running style works best with the hill.
Pulpit's Express shows a form that should benefit from the turnback in distance. If he can run to the Beyers that he was posting when routing last Summer, than Pulpit's Express should be right in the mix at the wire.
Pulla Train ships back to SoCal after scooping up a pair of wins in Arizona. Trainer Eric Kruljac sports a .27 Winning Percentage (albeit in a small sample size) when moving his runners from dirt to turf. Waitwaitdonttellme has finished in the money in four of his five career starts on grass; the question is how he'll handle the turnback in distance.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Lovely Instinct (ML 6-1)
# 8 Perched (ML 9-2)
# 12 Singleinthelast (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Mean Emma Jean (ML 15-1)
# 6 Grammy Times Six (ML 6-1)
# 7 Yesterday Sings (ML 8-1)
# 9 Katy's Plum (ML 7-2)
Lovely Instinct and Perched are tied with the best career Beyer in this field on a fast dirt track. Perched is making a move down the class ladder, while Singleinthelast drops in for a tag for the first time in her career.
Mean Emma Jean tries real dirt for the first time while going out for a trainer (Mark Glatt) with a .23 Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming contests. Grammy Times Six flashed early speed while going around two turns; her Tomlinson Rating suggests that she's better suited to today's distance. Yesterday Sings makes her second career start for Trainer Phillip D'Amato, who is one for five with such. Katy's Plum returns from a seven month layoff and gets Bejarano in the saddle.
I'm investing much more in today's play than I normally do; but I feel that it's justified with the larger fields. I'll be playing it Crist style; meaning that the tickets will look like this:
All A Entries
1,4,6,11 with 3 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 7 with 3 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $3.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 11,14 with 5,7 with 5,8,12 $24.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 3 with 2,9,12 with 5,8,12 $18.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,4,6,11 with 3 with 5,7 with 2,6,7,9 $16.00
Total: $85.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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