Interesting sequence in SoCal this afternoon. We've got two charges down the hill, a listed stakes event, and we close it all out with maiden fillies up for sale. Good Lord willing, we'll find the right play and exit the Late Pick Four with more than when we entered.
RACE 6 - [S](F) OC 25k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 1 Hidethegoodstuff (Morning Line 4-1)
# 6 J and S Express (ML 4-1)
# 7 Velvet Mesquite (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Sweetest Secret (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cayanna (ML 4-1)
# 5 Always a Chance (ML 4-1)
Velvet Mesquite is making just her second career start, having won her debut charging down this hill on the second day of the meet. As this field is comprised of many who seem to prefer second place to first, Velvet Mesquite's inexperience is more of a positive than a negative. The fact that Trainer Blake Heap sports an oh-for-nine record when spotting his winners was the main roadblock in not making Velvet Mesquite a single "A" here.
Hidethegoodstuff, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, should be the early frontrunner, and just may cross the wire before most of these have a chance to get rolling. J and S Express has shown good tactical speed, and should get first run at Hidethegoodstuff.
Sweetest Secret enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and is the only horse in the field besides Velvet Mesquite with more Wins on turf than Place finishes. Cayanna and Always a Chance are an uncoupled entry trained by Doug O'Neill. Both have displayed the ability to win at this level, if not the desire.
RACE 7 - The Paseana $75k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Stanwyck (ML 7-2)
C's
# 1 Halo Dolly (ML 3-1)
# 2 Miss Serendipity (Arg) (ML 5-2)
# 7 Rock and Glory (ML 4-1)
Stanwyck returns from New York with a Grade 3 win her last time competing, along with the best last out Beyer. Halo Dolly comes off the grass for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, making her first start on real dirt since June of 2012. Hollendorfer sports a .30 Winning Percentage when moving his charges from turf to dirt. Miss Serendipity (Arg) had a very impressive work over this track 12/30, covering seven furlongs in under 1:25. She'll draw a lot of early money based on that move alone; but her record of just one win in six tries on a fast dirt track is cause for concern. Rock and Glory looks to be the speed of the speed here; if someone doesn't go after her early, she just might steal it.
RACE 8 - OC 62k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Pure Loyalty (ML 7-2)
# 5 Tripski (ML 3-1)
C's
# 8 El Mirage King (ML 6-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 4-1)
Pure Loyalty won two back in his only other race charging down the hill. Rafael Bejarano, who was on his back that day, gets the mount again today. Tripski showed an interesting change of pace his last time out, grabbing the early lead and sticking near the front to grab the Win; perhaps this is something conditioner Steve Asmussen trained into him. Joe Talamo, who got his picture taken with Tripski that day, gets the ride again today.
El Mirage King just missed at this approximate level his last time out; he'll get a rider switch today from the seven pound apprentice to Cory Nakatani. Ready for More comes back from a two month freshening for Trainer Mike Puype; note that Puype has a Winning Percentage of .23 with such. Also note that Mike Smith will be in the saddle today; the Puype / Smith tandem have a .35 Winning Percentage (with a positive ROI) the last twenty-six times that they have teamed up.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 L X Sunrise (ML 6-1)
# 2 Red Barris (ML 9-2)
# 4 Moscato Girl (ML 5-2)
C's
# 7 Wildcat Janine (ML 3-1)
L X Sunrise was purchased as a yearling at the Keeneland Auction in September 2012 for $37k. She makes her debut today with a pricetag of $30k on her head. Clearly, L X Sunrise did not develop into what her connections had hoped. Still, you have to respect her chances today, as Trainer Peter Miller wins 29% of the time when debuting a horse in a Maiden Claiming event. Also note that progeny of sire Kodiak Cowboy win approximately 15% of their debuts.
Red Barris flashed some early foot his last time out, and has definitely shown a preference in his races for real dirt over synthetics. Moscato Girl makes the drop from State Bred MSW into the claiming ranks today; note that her best Beyer Speed Figure was earned in her debut, which also happens to be her only prior race on real dirt. Wildcat Janine took the Place at this level her last time out in her debut after a horrendous start.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing the tickets as usual using the Crist method: all "A's" on a one dollar ticket (should cost $18) and then fifty cent tickets using "A's" in three legs and "C's" in the other (those four tickets should have a combined cost of $48). Put it all together and you get:
All A Entries
$1.00 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 3,4,5 with 6 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 1,2,7 with 3,5 with 1,2,4 $27.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 8,9 with 1,2,4 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 1,6,7 with 6 with 3,5 with 7 $3.00
Total: $66.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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