So I get an email last week from my good buddy Jeff G (whose comments you occasionally see in this blog) telling me that Ramona's Wildcat is making her second career start the 27th at Sunland Park. Jeff tells me that he saw this Louisiana bred filly break her maiden in her debut in December and thinks that she might be worth keeping an eye on. Sure enough, that December outing was, in the understated words of the chart caller, an "impressive debut", as Ramona's Wildcat (Final Odds 1.40*) left the rest of the field in the New Mexico dust, winning by over eight lengths. So having been tipped to this three year old filly by Wildcat Heir out of an Indian Charlie mare, I decided that I'd take a look at the races on either side Ramona's Wildcat's event today and see if we can click on a multi-race wager.
RACE 9 - [S] Clm $5k B - Four and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Silent Purpose (Morning Line 6-1)
# 6 It's Tera (ML 4-1)
# 12 Wild N Precocius (ML 2-1)
C’s
None
This race is restricted to New Mexico bred horses four years old and upward, which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won two races since July 25, 2013 (six months ago)
As I type this, Sunland Park has not yet announced their program changes for Saturday. As Wild N Precocius is second on the Also Eligible List, there's a good chance that he may not draw in. If he does draw in he looks to enjoy a clear class edge in this field, having won twice in non-state restricted events in his last four outings. Also note that Wild N Precocius' second win in that sequence was July 14, 2013, less than two weeks before the six month cutoff. In his fifteen career starts at Sunland Park, Wild N Precocius has finished in the Trifecta ten times. EDIT - Wild N Precocius has been scratched.
I think it's fair to say that Silent Purpose needed that last race coming off the layoff; moving a couple of rungs down the class ladder should help, as should the shortening in distance by half furlong. Note the pattern in his October 6 and November 6 races of last year: coming off a layoff, Silent Purpose flashed early speed in the October outing before fading and finishing well out of the money. Next time out, cutting a sixteenth of a mile off the distance, Silent Purpose crossed the wire first. Silent Purpose was victorious his only other time trying today's distance, and Trainer Gary Cross plays the claiming game well, racking up a .18 Winning Percentage in claiming contests, with a positive ROI.
It's Tera makes his second start off the layoff for Trainer Jose R Gonzalez Jr, who wins almost a third of the time with such. A concern is that It's Tera has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts; but he does like the Sunland Park main track, as all three of his career wins have come here.
RACE 10 - (F) The El Paso Times Handicap $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Ramona's Wildcat (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 7 Idling (ML 5-1)
In addition to all we said above about Ramona's Wildcat, she possesses the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field. The Beyer Speed Figure Ramona's Wildcat earned in her debut towers over anything any other entrant in this field has run, and she will once again have the meet's top rider, Ry Eikleberry on her back.
So why the presence of a "C" selection here? Two reasons; first, Ramona's Wildcat drew Post Position 1, which has not been faring well at this meet, winning fewer than nine percent of sprints. Second, we are talking about a three year old filly, a species designed to break your heart. Therefore I decided to show some caution here and include Idling, the invader from Arizona who already has a stakes win under her belt.
RACE 11 - (F) Clm $5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Dazzletown (ML 5-2)
# 10 Frequent Fame (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Riddle Star (ML 5-1)
# 4 Cliff'snaughtygirl (ML 15-1)
This race is for fillies and mares four years old and upward which:
1) Have never won four races; or
2) Have not won a race since October 25, 2013 (three months ago)
Dazzletown has been camera shy, getting her picture taken just twice in two dozen career contests. But most of those events have come against much more expensive stock; and she has been competitive, finishing in the Trifecta in nearly half of those twenty-four career starts. Note that the Trainer Justin Evans / Jockey Ry Eikleberry combo has a Winning Percentage above .30.
Frequent Fame has the most career wins in this field, the most recent coming at Del Mar back in August. Riddle Star seems to have good tactical speed; she may find herself leading the pack early, as there doesn't seem to be much pace in this one. Cliff'snaughtygirl just sneaks in under the conditions wire, having five career wins, with the last one coming at Albuquerque on October 25.
So that's the analysis. Again, keep in mind that Sunland Park has not yet posted today's scratches for their thoroughbred races. EDIT: The scratches have been posted, and Wild N Precocius did not draw in. The tickets below have been adjusted accordingly. I'll be playing all the "A" selections on one ticket for two bucks, and then I'll put all selections (both "A's" and "C's") on a fifty cent ticket. So what we'll have is:
All A Entries
$2.00 P3: 2, 6 with 1 with 2, 10 $8.00
All A's with All C's
$0.50 P3: 2, 6 with 1, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 10 $8.00
Post Time for Race 9 @ Sunland Park is scheduled for 5:38 EST / 2:38 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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