1/26/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

There's a multi-day carryover in the Pick Six at Santa Anita Sunday, and that usually translates into more funds making their way into the other pools as bettors support and leverage their Pick Six opinions.  There were a couple of ways I could have gone with today's Late Pick Four; but I think I've found the right combination that will give us the best opportunity to cash.  Anyway, here's how I see the final four races on today's card at Santa Anita.

RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 3 Divine Way (Morning Line 7-2)

C’s

None

Nothing like putting it all on the line in the very first leg.  Divine Way has taken the Place at this level in her last two starts, both turf sprints, the most recent down the hill.  Divine Way also has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field.  If she can run back to the Beyer Speed Figures that she earned in either of her last two performances, then she should win handily today.

I didn't add any "C" contenders in this leg; not just because of my confidence in Divine Way's ability to win, but also because I couldn't see any legitimate way to separate the many capable first time runners in today's field.  That is to say, if Divine Way was not in this field, this would be a race where I would be looking for the "ALL" button.  And while I have done tickets in the past (and will probably do in the future) where I've had one "A" selection and "ALL" (or nearly "ALL") as my "C" selections, I decided that I'd rather include a few more "A's" in the later stages of this ticket than do that here.  Was that the right way to play it?  Well, we'll know for sure in a few hours.

RACE 7 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Chelios (ML 9-5)
# 3 Rprettyboyfloyd (ML 4-1)
# 9 Sawyer's Hill (ML 5-2)

C’s

None

Chelios, Rprettyboyfloyd, and Sawyer's Hill are all second time starters that finished in the money at this level with Beyers well within par for this class.  Both Chelios and Rprettyboyfloyd earned their Speed Figures over this main track, with Chelios going six furlongs while Rprettyboyfloyd went seven.  Sawyer's Hill earned his Speed Figure over the synthetic surface at Del Mar, but he has been working well over the main track.

Again, no "C" selections in this one.  There are two Bob Baffert first time starters going here; Trainer Peter Miller has a second time starter going that was previously trained by Dale Romans; and Trainer Ron Ellis, who normally does not do well with debut runners, has secured the services of Jockey Mike Smith for the first timer that he has running in this one, suggesting that his entry may be live; so, as with the prior leg, it's hard to see using any one of those without using them all.  So for this one we're just going to stick with our three "A's" and play our hand with them.

RACE 8 - [R] The Clocker's Corner $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Sweet Swap (ML 7-2)
# 4 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)

C’s

# 3 Drill (ML 8-1)
# 6 El Commodore (ML 7-2)
# 7 Lakerville (ML 8-1)
# 8 Ankeny Hill (ML 15-1)
# 9 Ready for More (ML 3-1)

This stakes race is restricted to runners four years old and upward which have not won a Graded Stakes since July 1, 2013. 

Sweet Swap is making a move up the class ladder, but his defeat of Boat Trip last time out suggests that he's ready to compete at this level.  Boat Trip just missed by a nose of winning the Grade 3 Eddie D charging down this hill back in September.  Boat Trip's late running style should prove useful today.

Drill is another that may be well served today by a late running style.  Drill will be getting some much needed class relief, though it's not clear that the drop will end his losing streak.  Lakerville returns from a vacation of over a year; but he won his career debut, which suggests that he can win off the bench; and Trainer Barry Abrams has shown the ability to win with those that have been away for an extended period.  Note also that Lakerville won that debut by charging down this hill.

El Commodore (ridden by Gary Stevens), Ankeny Hill (ridden by Edwin Maldonado), and Ready for More (ridden by Mike Smith) project to be the early pace setters.  If any of the above three jockeys can get their runner to relax, then they will be in ideal position to charge past the other two and cross the wire before the closers can hit their best stride.

RACE 9 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Broker Brett (ML 9-2)
# 4 On My Honor (ML 7-2)
# 8 Tribal Smoke (ML 9-2)
# 9 Warren's Tyler S. (ML 9-2)

C’s

# 5 Mary Helen's Storm (ML 6-1)
# 6 World Famous Sam T (ML 6-1)

Broker Brett gets some much needed class relief, as well as a change of rider to Corey Nakatani.  On My Honor took the Place at a higher rung up the class ladder last time out; if he can run to the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that one, he should win today.  Tribal Smoke has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.  If Tribal Smoke gets loose on the lead, this race becomes a battle for Place.  Warren's Tyler S. took the Place at this level last time out.  Warren's Tyler S. broke his maiden over this track.

Mary Helen's Storm took the Place at this level his last time out, his first try against winners.  World Famous Sam T. tries winners for the first time today after winning his debut last month.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries 

$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 2,4,8,9 $24.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 3,6,7,8,9 with 2,4,8,9 $30.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 1,3,9 with 2,4 with 5,6 $6.00

Total: $60.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo